Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, July 07, 2015
Brent Crude Oil Price Breaks out of Bearish Wedge / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: MarketsToday
Brent Crude broke down from a bearish rising wedge formation several weeks ago, trading relatively sideways thereafter, until the tail end of last week when it fell below and closed below $60.97. The 50% retracement at $57.41 was surpassed yesterday to the downside, with the next target being around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $54.53, followed by the most recent swing low (C) at $52.61.
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Monday, July 06, 2015
Silver Price Consolidating Ahead of Another Sharp Drop / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Clive_Maund
Silver's cheerleaders are trying to keep their flocks happy by talking it up as usual, but the hard reality is that silver's charts continue to look awful, and like it is readying for another sharp drop, which fits with our view that the dollar is getting ready for another big upleg.
Monday, July 06, 2015
Gold Price Gravitating Lower Towards $1000 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Clive_Maund
Gold has not even been able to muster a rally on the Greek crisis, which is a bad sign, especially as the dollar looks like it is preparing to break out upside from a large consolidation pattern.
On its 8-year chart we can see that gold is still in the large downsloping consolidation pattern that has been going on for 2 years now. Goldbugs like to think that this trading range is a pattern is a base pattern, and while it may be, this is viewed as wishful thinking. Instead it looks like the B-wave of a large A-B-C correction from gold's highs in 2011. If it is, then the C-wave, which is suspected to be imminent, will take gold down at least to the strong support in the $1000 area, and probably lower towards the lower boundary of its large downtrend channel shown - if it gets there we are looking at $850 - $870. The good news is that this should mark the end of gold's bearmarket, especially as a rising rate cycle is just over the horizon, and contrary to popular belief, gold thrives in a rising rate environment - anyone remember the late 70's??
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Saturday, July 04, 2015
Crude Oil Price Forecast to Plunge Below $40 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Gary_Savage
In the after hours trading on Thursday oil broke below the May daily cycle low indicating a failed daily cycle is in progress, and confirming the intermediate top occurred on May 6th.
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Friday, July 03, 2015
Gold and Silver Subdued / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Gold and silver had a poor week, with no relief from drifting prices after the end of the second quarter. The gold price opened on Monday morning in the Far East at $1187 and fell to a low point at $1158 yesterday. Silver mirrored gold's move falling from $16.05 to $15.50. Both metals rallied yesterday afternoon with gold down slightly but silver up 14 cents. In early European trading this morning there were further small gains.
Friday, July 03, 2015
How the New Iranian Nuclear Deal Will Impact Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: This week, reports emerged that a draft deal on Iran’s nuclear program would be reviewed by the Western negotiators. Crude oil prices plummeted – West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed down 4.2%, at $56.96 a barrel, the lowest since April 22.
The concern spurring the decline is that an agreement would lift the Western sanctions and allow Iranian oil to flood into the market, propelling prices down.
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Friday, July 03, 2015
Gold Stocks Cheap to Buy but Not for Long / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: The_Gold_Report
Fund Manager Adrian Day believes that the U.S. dollar is fundamentally overvalued and we can expect a devaluation at some point. This is good news for the price of gold. In this interview with The Gold Report, Day adds the even-better news for investors in gold equities is that so many good shares now sell for so little, and he discusses several companies that won't remain bargains for long.
The Gold Report: Despite the lack of an economic recovery and the reality of ever-increasing debt, the U.S. dollar and the equity markets remain strong, while gold (as denominated in U.S. funds) remains weak. Do you expect these conditions to change?
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Thursday, July 02, 2015
HUI Gold Stocks Most Destructive Bear Market in History / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: Toby_Connor
When this support zone breaks the bankruptcy phase will start in earnest.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2015
Gold Stocks Break Below 2008 Low / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Briefly: In our opinion, short (half) speculative positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward point of view.
Gold and silver declined yesterday, but the really profound action was seen in the precious metals mining stocks. Both key indices for this sector (the HUI and XAU) declined below their respective 2008 lows and managed to close below them. What’s next? Will gold and silver stocks bounce like they did in late 2014?
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Wednesday, July 01, 2015
Silver Tunnel Vision 'Experts' / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Dan_Norcini
Over the past month, we have been subjected to one breathless article after another predicting a huge upside blowout in silver as "the trapped shorts are forced out".
"The rise in open interest to a record high, even higher than when silver was trading near $50, tells us that some big money is going into silver and it is just a matter of time before the shorts are given a religious experience".
Thus would the summation be of the crux of the silver perma-bull "analysis".
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Wednesday, July 01, 2015
Gold And Silver - Monthly, Quarterly Ending Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Michael_Noonan
While not many pay any attention to these two larger time frames, especially the Quarterly, both are more controlling and receive greater attention from smart money players. These time frames are not at all used for market timing, but they do show the dominance of a trend. It also takes considerably more effort to effect changes on either or both.
There is no need to reference any news events because current events cannot alter the established trends, and the collective current events of the past several years have done nothing to change the trend. We take that back. For the last year, while the overall trend has been down, price has been relatively neutral in the sense of moving sideways instead of lower. That noted aspect is actually a change in behavior, and it is more evident on the silver chart.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2015
How the Latest Greek Drama Will Affect the Price of Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: In Greek history, there is a story that after devising the Athenian system of governance the great classical lawgiver Solon was walking down from the sacred council site of the Areopagus when he was greeted by another citizen.
“Well, Solon, did you give Athens the best constitution possible?” the fellow asked.
“No,” Solon responded. “I gave her the best constitution she could accept.”
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Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Greece Crisis Shows Importance of Gold as Europeans Buy Coins and Bars / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
- Demand for physical gold from Europeans surges
- Greek ATMs limit withdrawals to €60 per day
- Greeks panic buy food, fuel and medicine
- European elites threaten Greece with expulsion
- Gold not subject to capital controls or “bail-ins”
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Gold GDXJ : Impulse Move Pending / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Rambus_Chartology
The GDXJ is at an important inflection point right here and now. As you can see it’s sitting right on the neckline of a small H&S top that has formed at the fourth reversal point on the potential bearish falling wedge. A break of the neckline will almost assure a move down to the bottom blue rail of the falling wedge at a minimum.
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Crude Oil Weakness is Not Gold Friendly / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Dan_Norcini
Amidst all the talk about "Grexit" (are the rest of the readers as sick of hearing about this as I am at this point?), one thing being overlooked, especially by those who keep calling for some sort of rip roaring surge higher in gold and silver, is the fact that crude oil is weakening.
In short, with many looking at the situation in Greece as contributing to a hit on economic growth, and with the fact that China is struggling, crude oil is moving lower as traders are concerned over a SLOWDOWN IN DEMAND.
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Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Fed Interest Rate Increase Could Be Best Thing to Happen to Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: The_Gold_Report
A true contrarian knows that when everyone says an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve would kill stocks, that is the best time to double down on junior mining names. In this interview with The Gold Report, Gold Stock Trades author Jeb Handwerger shares the names of the companies he thinks could do well through the drill bit or by acquisition regardless of when the inevitable turnaround comes.
The Gold Report: Common wisdom says that when the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates later this year, it will prove negative for gold. Do you agree?
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Monday, June 29, 2015
U.S. Crude Oil Glut An EIA Invention? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
In the latest weekly production data from the EIA, on the back of recent March revisions, the U.S. managed to post a 76,000 barrel per day increase in the lower 48. Production from Alaska fell by 61,000 barrels per day, putting overall U.S. output 15,000 barrels per day higher for the week ending June 12 compared to the previous week.This comes at a time when multimillion barrel draws have become the norm. It is important to note that lower 48 production is estimated based on an EIA black box model, while Alaska is virtually real time data. That suggests that the weekly supply estimates are hugely overestimated.
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Monday, June 29, 2015
Gold and Silver Greece and Short Positions / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Hedge funds and high-frequency traders have finally forced gold into a US dollar loss this year as shown in our introductory chart, but silver is still in positive territory. This week gold declined $29 with a break from the $1200 level to $1171, and silver fell 40 cents to $15.70 early this morning in European trade.
Sunday, June 28, 2015
China the Wild Card On Gold, Greek Referendum Vote July 5 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The Bucket Shop on the Hudson was quiet in this day after precious metal options expiration.
There was intraday commentary here about China's desire to make the yuan a global reserve currency, and some possible implications for gold from the head of Bloomberg precious metals analysis. You may read about that here.
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Sunday, June 28, 2015
Silver - Boiling Down The Narratives / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Charlie, a long term subscriber sent me the note I’ve included below.
I decided to share it with you because I’m tired. I’m tired of conceding to the mainstream view.
I often find myself apologizing for the emotion and struggling to keep it all professional. To keep a cool head, stick to the facts, honor the investment implications and serve the interests of readers.
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