Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, December 02, 2020
Gold & the USDX: Correlations / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It’s crunch time for gold and the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX), as they find themselves at a crossroads. As of Wednesday, the USDX is holding its lows but wants to move up, thus invalidating its breakdown. And gold? Well, gold did gain a bit today, but it’s essentially jumping up in an elevator that’s moving down – it just doesn’t have enough steam to break out.
While it’s been the traditional view that when the US Dollar declines, gold increases in price, we find that's not always the case when comparing historical patterns. And just to watch the price of gold itself when making a buying decision is not enough. One needs to pay attention to the price of gold in relation to moves in the USDX – that helps to indicate the bottom.
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Tuesday, December 01, 2020
Globalists Poised for a “Great Reset” – Any Role for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Although the apparent results of the 2020 election are still being contested, members of the global ruling elite are already looking forward to a post-Trump era in American politics – and a post-vaccine world economy.
They have encapsulated their policy agenda for 2021 and beyond into two words: “Great Reset.”
The notion of a Great Reset comes directly from the World Economic Forum.
Saturday, November 28, 2020
The Gold Stocks Correction is Maturing / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
The last time I wrote a title like the above was on June 19th; and wouldn’t you know that the correction ended the very next trading day? The consolidation breakout on Monday, June 22 created the gap you will see as a downside objective on the daily chart of HUI below.
Gold Sector Correction is Maturing (6.19.20)
That was a routine correction as gold and the gold miners were still part of one big relief party as central banks flooded the markets with liquidity to meet the deflationary crisis of the virus-ridden spring.
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Saturday, November 28, 2020
Biden and Yellen Pushed Gold Price Down to $1,800 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold plunged to $1,800. What does this imply for the gold market?Whoa! Tuesday, November 24 wasn’t too good for gold. The price of the yellow metal plunged then from $1,840 to $1,800. Actually, November was an awful month for gold prices, which dropped from a local peak of $1,941, or more than 7 percent.
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Friday, November 27, 2020
Gold: Insurance for Prudent Investors, Precious Metals Reduce Risk & Preserve Wealth / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Nick_Barisheff
Responsible homeowners and landlords insure their property against fires, floods and violent storms. Sensible motorists insure their vehicles against inadvertent fender benders and costly collisions. Prudent investors own precious metals to protect financial assets from currency debasement, stock market meltdowns and economic collapse.
Reducing risk and avoiding financial loss is the purpose of insurance. Precious metals is the insurance plan that everyone needs – especially now. Like insurance, precious metals safeguard financial assets, reducing risk and loss. This is because gold is the most negatively correlated asset to financial assets.
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Thursday, November 26, 2020
Further Clues Reveal Gold’s Weakness / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It might have been tempting to think that the recent move lower in the U.S. Dollar Index would serve to push gold higher, as it usually does according to the traditional pattern. But these are extraordinary times and there are too many external factors weighing negatively on the price of the yellow metal.
As if the previous vaccine announcements weren’t enough, the latest vaccine trials from AstraZeneca further propelled positive news. And as Trump reluctantly gave Joe Biden the green light towards a transition to the White House, what more can the precious metals do but capitulate? The risky assets train is leaving the station and investors are climbing on board. There simply is no clear catalyst for gold to rally and it can only go further down from here before bottoming.
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Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Biden the Silver Bull / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth explains why he believes Biden could become silver's best friend. It may seem like an unlikely match.
But there are some big reasons why Biden could become silver's best friend.
The main force behind this thesis is that we can expect stimulus. A lot of stimulus.
More specifically, Biden is likely to do his utmost to bring on more general support for the economy through increased borrowing, further expanding the deficit and national debt.
He has also made it clear that he's a big proponent of a Green New Deal, which is a mega effort to migrate the economy towards renewable energy and net zero carbon emissions.
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Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Inflation Warning to the Fed: Be Careful What You Wish For / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger examines the charts for commodities like soybeans and the components used in handheld electronic devices, and reflects on what they say about the future prospects of those who hold mortgages and invest in precious metals.
As I peruse my favorite website in search of technical patterns for various commodities and stocks, I am reminded of the soon-to-be-immortal words of former stock salesman and current Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, when he announced a major shift in policy related to "inflation targeting." As the Gregorian-like chant of "Bye-bye 2%" echoes throughout the room, a second memory appears of a quote that I lifted from the pages of Yale Hirsch's timeless "Stock Trader's Almanac," where it is said that "Inflation is like toothpaste; once out of the tube, it is impossible to get it back in."
Rather than applying my obsessive-compulsive personality disorder to the same old charts of first gold and silver, then the senior and junior miners, and ending with virtually everything that is in my personal portfolio, I decided this morning to change it up. They say that "sometimes a change is better than a rest," so as the Powell-esque mantra resonated in the background, I thought of food prices and how my trusty government agencies are constantly feeding me information about how "subdued" the inflation rates are thanks to the mercurial talents of the central bankers.
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Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Herd Immunity or Herd Insolvency: Which Will Affect Gold More? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Vaccines are coming. But so is the debt crisis. What does it imply for gold?
COVID-19 cases are still rising at an alarming rate in the United States. As the chart below shows, the rolling 7-day average of new daily infections stays above 160,000.
Monday, November 23, 2020
Gold and Silver Now and Then - A Comparison / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
When making decisions regarding the gold mining stocks sector, some will choose to follow price actions while others will use indicator tools. The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) is one such tool, essentially being a gauge of overbought and oversold conditions for the gold mining sector with readings plotted on a range between 0 and 100. Anything below 30 suggests oversold conditions while readings above 70 indicate an overbought situation, with a buy or sell signal being triggered when the index reaches an extreme level and then reverses. Because gold stocks move in tune with gold or silver, the index can be useful in determining the direction of the entire precious metals sector as well as acting like a crystal ball when comparing historical patterns.
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Sunday, November 22, 2020
Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our advanced Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) modeling system is showing some interesting future trends for both Gold and Silver. The rally in precious metals has really just started if our ADL system is accurately predicting future price trends.
Over the past two years, we’ve highlighted a number of ADL research posts that have proven to be incredibly insightful regarding future market price trends. The ADL predictive modeling system is unique in that it maps out price and technical indicator DNA markers and attempts to correlate future price characteristics into highly probable outcomes. The result is a clear picture of what the ADL system believes is the most likely outcome based on the selected price bar.
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Thursday, November 19, 2020
Media Celebrates after Trump’s Pro-Gold Fed Nominee Gets Blocked / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
It was only after he entered politics that President Donald Trump began to fully grasp the bias, dishonesty, and fakeness that runs throughout the so-called mainstream media.
But gold bugs and sound money advocates have long known to distrust the reporting of establishment news sources.
Journalists’ anti-gold and anti-Trump biases converged this week as the Senate took up President Trump’s nomination of Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve Board.
Shelton, a fierce Fed critic and past supporter of a gold standard, drew intense opposition from Senate Democrats. She also faced opposition from Republicans Lamar Alexander, Susan Collins, and Mitt Romney.
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Wednesday, November 18, 2020
Gold Remains the Best Pandemic Insurance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth explains why he believes gold is the best COVID insurance policy. Bailouts and stimulus are not the best solution to the Covid pandemic.
What is? Possibly…insurance.
I know it's far from perfect, but I think it could still be the best overall option.
On some level, it's surprising that the role of insurance has gotten so little attention in this crisis.
After all, us and future generations will have to pay for all these massive bailouts.
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Tuesday, November 17, 2020
This Chart Signals When Gold Stocks Will Explode / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold Stocks remain in a correction, even if the October 29 lows continue to hold into December.
Corrections are a function of price and time, and often in this sector, a correction can continue in terms of time, well after a low in price is made. But I digress.
The most significant and most consistent moves to the upside usually occur after a crash or after a major breakout.
Gold and silver stocks made tremendous moves after the Covid crash and remain in position for tremendous upside moves over the quarters ahead.
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Tuesday, November 17, 2020
Gold Price Momentous ally From 2000 Compared To SPY Stock Market and Nasdaq / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In Part I of this research article I highlighted the incredible rally in Gold related to a 2020 Anchor point and how that rally in Gold compared to the QQQ and SPY. In this second Part I am going to highlight the price appreciation in the QQQ and SPY in comparison to Gold since 2009. It is important to understand how the equities/stocks have rallied in comparison to Gold because the ratio of valuation levels in equities/stocks compared to Gold appears to show when price disparities become outrageous and begin to revert.
Part I of our research showed the 2000 anchor point ratios, where we saw that Gold appreciated faster than the QQQ and the SPY over the span of the past 20 years. You’ll also see that the QQQ and SPY have appreciated very quickly over the past 5+ years in an attempt to close the gap. This represents a shift in how traders view opportunities in different asset classes.
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Monday, November 16, 2020
Free-spending Biden and/or continued Fed stimulus will hike Gold prices / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Richard_Mills
Gold may have come off the boil a bit after rising beyond $1,900 an ounce in the aftermath of the US election, but the precious metal will do well under a Biden presidency, an Ahead of the Herd analysis has found.
The main factors are drastically increased government spending, leading to even more unsustainable US debt levels than currently; dovish monetary policy as the Fed continues to advocate “lower for longer” interest rates; and a sinking US dollar. Gold prices and the USD generally move in opposition to each other.
Gold and the debt to GDP ratio
The debt-to-GDP ratio is an important metric economists use for comparing a country’s total debt to its gross domestic product (GDP).
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Monday, November 16, 2020
You May Have Overlooked These “Sleeper” Precious Metals / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets got off to a rocky start this week as Wall Street celebrated promising developments on the vaccine front.
On Monday, stocks surged while gold and silver sold off hard. That selling didn’t bring downside follow through, however. The metals held trading range support levels and pared some of their earlier losses heading into this Friday the 13th.
A metal we don’t often talk about traded up to an amazing record high earlier this week. The noble metal rhodium made palladium look dirt cheap by comparison – commanding as much as $15,000 per ounce.
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Sunday, November 15, 2020
What's Ahead for the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, look at the macroeconomic factors they believe will move gold higher. The gold market entered a period of increased volatility during the third quarter, usually a positive indicator for the metal. A growing number of investors and analysts recommended the accumulation of gold as it began to move out of the shadows and into the spotlight. Global ETFs have now been net purchasers for 11 months in a row and central banks have also been net purchasers every month of this year except October when two nations liquidated some of their holdings to meet dollar requirements resulting from the COVID-induced economic crisis.
We see a further move higher in gold in the near term as the election log jam begins to clear. The election process curtailed new fiscal stimulus since July when direct transfers to individuals exhausted their Congressional approvals. This pause in fiscal stimulus, which took government transfer payments to an astonishing 25% of household income, coincided with a pause in gold's upward momentum. However, it is very clear that further stimulus is favored on both sides of the House and even a Republican Senate, if there proves to be one, will not prevent trillions more of fiscal stimulus.
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Sunday, November 15, 2020
Gold’s Momentous Rally From 2000 Compared To Stock Market SPY & QQQ / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
My research team and I went off on a wild tangent trying to identify how the markets could react to the recent spike in price activity on Monday, November 9, 2020. This is the day that Pfizer announced a 90% effective rate with its new COVID-19 vaccine, causing the US stock market to skyrocket higher before the opening bell in New York. As with most pop-and-drops, this incredible upside spike trailed lower for the remainder of the trading day. My research team was curious if this type of setup presented any real future outcome or trends. To this end, we focused on the QQQ and the SPY in relationship to Gold.
9 to 9.5 year Gold Depreciation Cycle Ended in 2018 – what’s next?
Gold has been and continues to be a store of value for many around the world. At some times in history, Gold becomes undervalued in comparison to other assets (like stocks, real estate, and other tangible assets). At other times, Gold becomes more highly valued in comparison to other assets. This cycle has taken place throughout hundreds of years of history, and is rooted in the changing perceptions of market participants regarding “what/where is true value in the markets”.
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Friday, November 13, 2020
Is Silver Leading Bitcoin or is Bitcoin Leading Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
Is silver leading Bitcoin or is Bitcoin leading silver? Well, it depends on which time framing one is looking at.
On this chart comparison below, silver appears to be leading the way higher compared to Bitcoin:
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