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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Tuesday, September 08, 2020

Gold Stocks in Correction Mode / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks are mired in correction mode, which isn’t surprising after their mighty post-stock-panic upleg.  Huge buying catapulting them higher left this sector extremely overbought.  Corrections are normal and healthy after prices get too stretched technically.  They eradicate upleg toppings’ excessive greed, rebalancing sentiment.  That paves the way for bulls’ next uplegs, and offers great buying opportunities.

The most-popular gold-stock benchmark today is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  It includes the world’s biggest and best gold miners, dwarfing its peers in size.  Launched way back in May 2006, GDX’s first-mover advantage has grown insurmountable.  This ETF’s $17.9b in net assets this week are running 31.4x larger than its next biggest competitor’s in the 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF space.  GDX is king.

Gold stocks have a well-deserved reputation for excessive volatility, which is a key reason they are so alluring.  When the stars align right for them, meaning a big and persistent gold upleg, their stock prices skyrocket!  We just witnessed that in this sector’s enormous upleg following March’s COVID-19-lockdown-fueled stock panic.  The subsequent gold-stock gains were among the largest out of all stock-market sectors.

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 08, 2020

The law of long-term time preference and Gold ownership / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Michael_J_Kosares

“Those who plan, invest and execute long-term win,’ says long-time market analyst R.E. McMaster in A Layman’s Guide to Golden Guidelines for Wise Money Management. “Win-win decisions, looking to the long term with short-term work and sacrifice, are historically the tickets to success in all areas of life – short-term sacrifice for long-term benefits, deferred gratification rather than instant gratification. This is the difference between wealth and poverty, between class and trash. Those who make primarily fear-based, ego-based, selfish, win-lose, lose-lose, emotional and/or short-term decisions as their primary mode of operation in life nearly always end up miserable, often as losers in a comprehensive sense in life. Such people are walking tornadoes to be avoided.” [The Law of Long-Term Time Preference]

Successful investors have a philosophy, usually carefully cultivated, that they rely upon in their investment decisions no matter what happens in the markets in the short-run. Too, successful investors, as R.E. McMaster points out above, are rarely shaken by short-term events and, rarer still, guilty of short-term thinking. USAGOLD has always nurtured the belief that gold should not be purchased principally as a speculative investment, but more as an asset accumulated for long-term wealth preservation in the form of coins and bullion. That, in fact, is a viewpoint it shares with the bulk of its clientele. Thus, when we have a sell-off like what occurred this past month, experienced gold investors usually view such events as buying opportunities and part of a normal, healthy market process.

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 08, 2020

Gold Bull Markets: History and Prospects Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Would you like to know one simple way of achieving investment successes and getting rich? That’s great, I will reveal this secret to you – and you even don’t have to click anything! The trick is to find a bull market and go long! And, what a coincidence, gold is right now in the bull market… If you don’t believe, then look at the chart below.

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Commodities

Monday, September 07, 2020

Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Hope you have all had good August holidays despite the fast materialising Covid-19 second peaks across the world with the United States leading the way by galloping ahead of the rest. Though much of Europe has also taken it's eye off the ball and is fast seeing it's 2nd peaks materialising with the UK managing to fair better largely due to intelligence of it's citizens rather than any actions from our inept government. Though it is still on a rising trend trajectory as new cases continue to climb with the opening of schools and universities set to feed the covid-19 monster going forward.

If the pandemic was not bad enough for August the UK has had atrocious weather to the extent where one wondered if it's better to lose the £1000 or so spent on bookings than to venture out in this miserable weather.

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Commodities

Monday, September 07, 2020

The Federal Reserve vs. Judy Shelton And Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Those in favor of Judy Shelton’s approval by Congress, pursuant to her nomination to the Federal Reserve Board Of Governors, should not be surprised by the torrent of criticism directed at her.

A letter published and signed by former Federal Reserve officials and staffers called on the Senate to reject her nomination, stating that “Ms. Shelton’s views are so extreme and ill-considered as to be an unnecessary distraction from the tasks at hand…”

Her “extreme” views were referred to in a general statement of condemnation:

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Commodities

Monday, September 07, 2020

Fed Dials Up Inflation Target…Own Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth discusses the Fed's inflation target and what that means for gold.

Make no mistake, higher gold prices are coming.

By pulling yet another arrow from its quiver, the Fed's just helped move us closer that target.

The Fed wants inflation, so it's going to get it. Problem is, we the people, will have to live with it.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell told us last week they will let inflation run higher than "normal" to make up for stubbornly "below average" inflation for some time.

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Commodities

Monday, September 07, 2020

Does Gold Still Have Plenty of Potential? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

According to the WGC, the latest leg of gold’s 2020 bull run has come too fast, but gold has still potential for further upside.

The World Gold Council has recently published a few interesting reports. Let’s analyze them and draw important conclusions for the precious metals investors!

I’ll start with the July Investment Update: “Gold hits record high: sprint or marathon?” about the summer’s rally in gold that elevated the price of the yellow metal to the new record high. According to the WGC, the combination of high uncertainty, easy monetary policy, very low interest rates, positive price momentum, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and fears of higher inflation fueled record flows of 734 tons into gold-backed ETFs in the first half of the year and the gold’s price appreciation:

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Commodities

Monday, September 07, 2020

Is the Precious Metals Market really Overwhelmed and Chaotic / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Robert_Singer

August 13, the Market Oracle  publishes my article on Gold, Silver, the Black Rock and the Twins. I claim something is going on that can’t be explained without knowing what happened in 2015 that changed the precious metals and mankind’s destiny.

I am still waiting to see if Silver tests the $21 resistance but what happened yesterday (August 11) and the next day is perplexing.

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Commodities

Sunday, September 06, 2020

Pension Funds Start Looking to Gold to Avert Disaster / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Public and private pension plans face a dual crisis.

The first and most obvious threat to pensioners is that defined-benefit vehicles are severely underfunded. By one estimate, pension systems taken as a whole are $638 billion in the red.

Some are in better shape financially than others. But all pension plans will have to reckon with a second huge challenge going forward.

Namely, they are already entirely unable to meet their stated return objectives by owning conventional “safe” interest-bearing instruments such as Treasury bonds.

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Commodities

Sunday, September 06, 2020

Fed Embraces Higher Inflation. Will It Embrace Gold, Too? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Fed adopts a new strategy that opens the door for higher inflation. The change is fundamentally positive for gold prices.

So, it happened! In line with market expectations, the Fed has changed its monetary policy framework into a more dovish one! This is something we warned our Readers in our last Fundamental Gold Report:

the Fed could change how it defines and achieves its inflation goal, trying, for example, to achieve its inflation target as an average over a longer time period rather than on an annual basis.
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Commodities

Thursday, September 03, 2020

Platinum Tremd Forecast to Follow Gold Price Higher / Commodities / Platinum

By: Chris_Vermeulen

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Platinum may be setting up in a technical pattern that is similar to the end of 2001/early 2002.
  • Platinum could rally more than 300%, somewhere near $3,450 or higher.
  • This might push Gold above $7,500 an ounce and may push silver somewhere north of $125 per ounce.
  • Rally hinges on platinum breaking out above $1,050.50.

Platinum may be setting up in a technical pattern that is similar to the end of 2001/early 2002.  At that time, Gold had already begun to rally above $340 and Platinum had rallied to levels above $600.  Then, while Gold continued to rally, Platinum contracted to price levels near $400 on diminishing volume.  Once that contraction was complete, Platinum began and upside price move with stronger volume levels which lasted almost seven years – reaching a peak above $2,300.  Could the same setup be happening right now?

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Commodities

Thursday, September 03, 2020

What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth looks at the factors behind the movements in the gold and silver markets. Gold's retreated from a record high above $2,000, and silver's off its own seven-year highs near $30.

Is that cause for concern? I doubt it.

These have been dramatic surges to new levels, brought on by a combination of low interest rates, historic money-printing raising the specter of inflation, a softer U.S. dollar, and of course a global pandemic.

But that doesn't mean gold and silver have to continue higher in a straight line.

Instead, these gains have been so strong that a period of retracement and consolidation are not only expected, they're crucial to the continued health of this precious metals bull market.

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Commodities

Sunday, August 30, 2020

FOMC Minutes Push Gold Price Down / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

July FOMC minutes hit the gold prices. But what’s next for the yellow metal?

The key event last week was the publication of the minutes from the FOMC meeting in July. After their release, the U.S. dollar jumped, while the price of gold dropped, as the chart below shows. Why? Well, the Fed officials disappointed investors who expected some clues about upgrading the U.S. central bank’s forward guidance in September. In other words, the Fed failed to provide any new guidance as to the interest rate expectations.
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Commodities

Sunday, August 30, 2020

Powerful Deflationary Winds" Include a "Bust in Commodity Prices / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

Elliott Wave International's analysts have posited that the next big global monetary event will be deflation, not inflation.

The writer of an August 18 Telegraph article also sees "powerful deflationary winds."

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Commodities

Friday, August 28, 2020

Gold Miners and Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

I want to try to answer a subscriber’s question as clearly as I can because it really does seem to be more confusing than it actually is. It’s always made sense to me but I understand there is a promotion machine out there selling viewpoints and in the gold sector especially, it is often wrong-headed, lazy analysis using tired assumptions.

“I do have a couple of questions that relate to gold/gold miner stocks that I can’t seem to get my head around. No hurry on an answer, just when you get time: From time to time, you have mentioned that inflation would send the gold bugs scurrying for cover. I had always thought that gold would rise during inflationary periods so I can’t seem to get why inflation would not be good for gold. And on the middle ground; how would gold likely act if we experience a prolonged period of stagflation?”

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Commodities

Thursday, August 27, 2020

Precious Metal Bullion Markets Catch a Breath / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Gold bugs may finally be taking their summer (stay)vacation. After months of frenetic activity in the bullion markets, physical buying and selling slowed a bit last week.

The respite, if it persists, could be welcome news for investors who have been frustrated by product scarcity and higher premiums.

The COVID-19-associated economic troubles have not been resolved, but those stories aren’t commanding the level of attention they did in recent weeks.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 27, 2020

Are You Positioned for a Copper Price Explosion? / Commodities / Copper

By: Metals_Report

Independent financial analyst Matt Badiali presents the investment case for copper.

Copper will be the next metal to break out in 2020, and it's all about demand.

The price of copper just broke through $3.00 per pound. The red metal's price rose 45% so far in 2020. But that is still well below its 2011 high of $4.50 per pound.

That could change in the second half of this year.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 27, 2020

What The 1987 Crash Reveals About Silver Today / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

The 1987 stock market crash occurred after a period with a similar build up to the 2020 crash. After being stuck in a range for a number of years in the 1970s and the 2000s, the Dow managed to break higher after a significant gold peak in 1980 as well as 2011 respectively. See the chart below:

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Commodities

Thursday, August 27, 2020

$10,000 Gold – Or A Triple Top? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Predictions for gold’s price are based on seemingly sound fundamentals and logic; but the fundamentals are incorrect and presented in unrealistic context. Here are some things to keep in mind when you see any predictions for the price of gold.  

GOLD IS NOT AN INVESTMENT

Gold, itself, is not an investment. Gold is real money and the original measure of value for everything else.

A higher gold price is inversely correlated to a decline in the purchasing power of the US dollar. This, can be seen historically on the chart (source) below…

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Could Buffett Buy 130 Million Ounces of Silver Again? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Earlier this week, precious metals markets got a surprising Buffett bounce.

Legendary investor Warren Buffett isn’t often associated with gold – at least not in a positive way. In the past Buffett has made derisive comments about the monetary metal. He once quipped that gold “has no utility.”

A perpetual optimist on the U.S. economy, Buffett by nature doesn’t like the message that is sent by higher gold prices. He has likened investing in gold to “going long on fear.”

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