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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 08, 2008

US Home Owners Debts Exceed Equity / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe pace of expansion of all forms of debt is decelerating in the fourth quarter of 2007. Domestic non-financial debt rose 8% as a whole over 2007, .75% lower than in 2006. That may not seem like a slowdown, but consumers are changing course at the fastest pace, slowing from a pace of 6.75% annualized growth of debt in the third quarter to 5.5% in the fourth quarter. For the year, household debt rose at 6.75% compared to 10.25% in 2006. State and local government debt expanded at a rate of 9.75% for the entire year, while the Federal Government claims to have expanded its debt burden by 5%. I don't believe that last figure, since much of the Federal Government spending is “off the books.” Read the report and weep. We're all a bunch of debt junkies. Kicking the habit will be very hard.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 07, 2008

Market Forecasts- US Dollar, Euro, Yen, Gold, Commodities / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Christopher_Laird

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSo much is happening with the USD and the critical US credit markets, as well as with gold and commodities. Now that the USD broke below the key 73 level on the USDX (US dollar index basket of currencies, heavily Euro weighted) many key issues come to the fore for gold and commodities.

Euro, commodities
First, the EU is still rather firm on interest rates, but they have a lot of pressure as the Euro breaks over 1.50. The ECB and EU have previously made comments that they could intervene in currency markets if the Euro breaks above 1.50 . Any indication that can happen will cause a significant USD turnaround. That would then apply to gold and oil as well, as these have risen so much recently and are due for profit taking (or that pressure is there). So, the Euro situation needs to be closely tracked, as any significant change in policy can cause oil, gold, and commodity profit taking.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 07, 2008

Ominous S&P 500 Stock Market Chart- Warning of Oct 2002 Target / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe very big picture of the S&P 500 chart -- (AMEX: SPY) for traders of the ETF -- shows the making of a giant double-top pattern that could be on the verge of downside acceleration that breaks the January low at 1270 and begins to fulfill its "natural potential" on the way towards a revisit of the 2002 low. Yes, that is an extreme forecast, but that is the look that this pattern exhibits. No, it will not happen in a straight line, and more than likely any decline in the SPX that violates the January 2008 low at 1270 will find support at the 50% support area of the entire 2002-2007 bull move, which is at 1174.00. Be that as it may, this is a very ominous longer-term chart picture.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 07, 2008

Stock Market Forecast and Outlook for March 2008 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Hans_Wagner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf you want to beat the market, you need to invest with the trend. In looking at the trend, I believe it is best to begin with the big picture in mind and then work our way down to weekly and then daily views of the charts. You will notice that the chart and the value of the indicators change as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart. This is a normal part of the technical analysis.

Let's start with the long term view of the S&P 500. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) seems to be a good indicator of the cyclical bull and bear markets. In addition, the 78 week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acts as support in a bull market and resistance in a bear market. 

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 06, 2008

Capital and Debt Markets Crisis- Investors Four Critical Questions / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Doug_Wakefield

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDoes tracking the major US equity markets give us a full grasp of the amount of risks in our capital markets?
Absolutely not. Consider this: Over the last 14 months, from the end of 2006 to the last day of February of 2008, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ 100 are only down 1.58% and .63%, respectively. But, if we look at some of the major SECTORS of our economy, we get a different picture. For example, over the same timeframe, the retail index ($RLX) is down 22.85%, the housing index ($HGX) is down 42.55%, the brokerage index ($XBD) is down 24.90%, and the banking index ($BKX) is down 29.91%, while the healthcare index ($HCX) is only down 2.32%. So, four major areas of our economy are down substantially, and neither the Dow nor the NASDAQ 100 has reflected this reality.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 06, 2008

Credit Crisis Mega Opportunities as Everything is Repriced to True Values / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Ty_Andros

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI can't tell you how wonderful it is to be alive in today's markets. This past week was one of great importance as the markets really signaled enormous new realities which now have to be priced in over the coming years. Volatility is opportunity and it is abundant . What makes it even juicier for the prepared investor is that it is now apparent on WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts, signaling the enormous timeframes in which we are anticipating BIG MOVES! We're only in the second inning in a 9-inning ballgame. Re-pricing of everything to its TRUE VALUE is underway and creating mega opportunities for prepared investors.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Counter Trend Rally in Stock Market S&P 500 Index / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The plot thickens. In this morning's posting we discussed the likelihood of upside follow-through from yesterday's low at 1307.00 in the S&P 500 e-Mini contract, but that the index would have to hurdle and sustain above 1348.50 to trigger upside acceleration towards the op of the Feb-Mar range. As it turned ou, the e-SPH peaked so far at 1345.00 prior to its mid-session AMBAC swoon. More vital, however, is that the pattern carved out from 1307 to 1345 does NOT exhibit particularly bullish form.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Stocks on the Brink of a Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAt the end of January, I wrote the article entitled, A Probable Path Revealed . In that article, I suggested that the January23 rd low was just the ending of wave (i) of C. After a brief rally, I expected waves (iii), (iv) and (v) to proceed. Well, the rally wasn't brief. But it appears that wave (ii) is now complete. Rather that using Elliott Wave, I have been keeping a chart of the DJIA with the head-and-shoulders neckline (red), the trendline of the advance from March 2003 and the Fibonacci retracements. They tell a compelling story at a glance.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Financial Markets Investing- Exploring All The Possibilities / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation

By: Captain_Hook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThese are definitely interesting times we live in, and the markets are also in this category from a predictive standpoint. Many are now dependent on the stock market's performance, so the stakes are high on numerous fronts. And for this reason you not only have participants remaining invested far past what would have historically been viewed as ‘prudent', but master planners in our society feel justified in arriving at a desired outcome no matter the means. This of course often involves market manipulation in addition to a regular priming of the pump by influencing prices in the futures markets, which extends from currencies to foreign stock markets.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

NASDAQ at Bargain Buy Levels or On the Edge of a Crash? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Marty_Chenard

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article1. Is the NASDAQ 100 at a great bargain level?
2. Or, is it at the edge of a potentially perilous drop?

To get the answer, we have to look at a "long term", 10 year view of where it is now and how it is performing.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 03, 2008

Stock Markets Targeting January Lows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Book-ending the month of February were to big sell-offs that left investors wondering if we were on the precipice of something truly large in the way of another major decline. While the first decline was more the ending to a very poor January, the one on Friday has investors questioning their views on the economy and the implications for stock prices in the weeks ahead.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 03, 2008

Epic Paradigm Shift Looms Against the Acceptance of Fiat Money / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System

By: Joseph_Russo

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAdaptive Trading and Investment Perspectives Since we first began offering our market forecasting and analysis services to the public some two years ago, Elliott Wave Technology has been strident in directing our clients focus and attention to the negative wealth effects that eroding fiat-currency's impose - along with the plausibility of epic consequence, if and when an inevitable paradigm shift against the acceptance of fiat-money were to ever reach critical mass. No matter where we are in a given investment cycle, we must first recognize the inherent nature of that environment, and then adapt our various investment postures with fitting perspective.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 03, 2008

Credit Crisis Morphs Into Stagflation- Protect Your Wealth! / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe credit crunch that broke with the two hedge funds failing in July 2007 is now into its ninth month with announces losses / bad debt write downs of £163 billions. Way back in July the expectations were that sub prime related losses would be in the region of some $140billions. With some venturing as far as possibly suggesting losses of $200, with some mavericks venturing to as high as $400 billion which was larger than that of the Savings and Loans crisis of $160 billions that required a US Tax Payer bailout of $124billions. The article of July 07 (Hedge Fund Sub prime Credit Crunch to Impact Interest Rates ) pointed out that the consequences of the credit crunch would be the worlds central banks ratcheting up money supply growth and making deep cuts in interest rates despite the inflationary consequences as the Central banks attempted to counter the credit crunch liquidity squeeze.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 02, 2008

Stock Market On Target for Retest of January Lows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is: We will probably see a multi month low in the next few weeks.

Short Term After a bottom has been reached downside volume diminishes quickly.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 01, 2008

Credit Contagion Spreads from Monoline Insurers to VIE's / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe next 3-letter acronym for toxic securities: “VIE” - While banks are lending another $3 billion to Ambac, a bond insurer, in the hope of staving off more rating downgrades, yet another entity looms large in the field of risk management. Suddenly, a new class of structured investment vehicle called Variable Interest Entities (VIEs), now contain toxic properties. It appears that the VIEs are bond issues that participate in the Auction Rate Securities (ARS) market. These bonds have a clause in their covenant that, if an auction fails to provide adequate liquidity, the yield on the bond resets (higher, of course) to a “fail rate.”

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 29, 2008

Digestion Period for Nasdaq Q's Ahead of Break Higher? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThus far, the Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) have managed to plunge from the top of the coil pattern (44.50) to the bottom of the coil pattern (43.15). Apart from the volatility exhibited within the range, let's notice that for the past two weeks, rallies have failed at roughly the same price, which have created a horizontal top plateau at 44.50, which is juxtaposed against a series of rising lows. The vast majority of the time, a "flat top" versus "rising lows" resolves itself with the price structure pushing above the flat top.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 29, 2008

Credit Crisis Timeline - From Foreclosures To Bank Failures / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Paul_Lamont

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs Charles Kindleberger asks in the investment classic Manias, Panics and Crashes ; “the essence of financial distress is loss of confidence. What comes next - slow recovery of belief in the future as various aspects of the economy are corrected, or collapse of prices, panic, runs on banks, a rush to get out of illiquid assets and into money?”

Our timeline of financial distress is below:

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 29, 2008

Bank Failures Warning! - Banking Crisis Entering a New Stage? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: I'm going to cut to the chase here: The U.S. financial industry is facing unprecedented challenges. Unlike past crises, which tended to be isolated in one or two parts of the credit market, this one is different ...

We are seeing major credit problems popping up in everything from residential mortgages to commercial mortgages to leveraged buyout loans to credit cards to auto loans. (And I'm probably forgetting a few!)

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 29, 2008

Investing in China - Oodles More Money to Be Made! / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLarry Edelson writes: Is China's boom over? Ha! Not by a long shot! China's economic rocket ride higher is far from over, and I think there are oodles of money to be made playing this giant as it awakens — and shakes the world!

First, let's look at some of the recent economic stats coming out of China ...

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Importance of the Ratio of Leadership Stocks to the Broad Market For Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Marty_Chenard

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBackground : All sustainable and hold-able rallies have one thing in common. The Ratio of Leadership Stocks to the Broad Market is always positive and trending up to a high level. Simply look at the red bar graph below ... see when it was positive, and then look down at the NYA Index and you will see that these times all represented great upside rallies.

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