Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, June 06, 2020
Stock Markets Failing to Give Another AI Mega-trend Buying Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My analysis of Late April concluded in expectations for a correction to about 21,000 by the 3rd week of May.
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Saturday, June 06, 2020
Is the Stock Bulls' Cup Half-Full or Half-Empty? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Neither on Monday, nor on Tuesday did we see strong volume, but prices rose regardless –is it time to bet the farm on higher stocks right next? As quite a few yesterday-mentioned reasons to be cautious were resolved bullishly, the buyers' case got stronger.
S&P 500 in the Short-Run
Let’s start with the daily chart perspective (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com ):
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Friday, June 05, 2020
Rigged Markets - Central Bank Hypnosis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger bemoans the panic-inducing influence of politicians and the influx of "counterfeit currency" from central banks on the money and commodities markets.
One look at the chart of the U.S. financial markets against the backdrop of economic paralysis and suffering, and one is immediately filled with a myriad of emotions. Sympathy for those that have been afflicted by the most recent pandemic; fear for the families whose primary breadwinner is now unemployed; confusion toward the proper course of action going forward; and finally outrage at the abject timidity of our citizens in responding to the orders laid down by these insipid politicians in response to the crisis.
As the welfare of future generations hangs in the balance, its tentativeness the direct result of government ineptitude, I keep asking myself a critical question: "When did the backbone of our people turn to mush?" If someone holding political office had told my grandfather to stop ploughing his fields or tending to his livestock because a sickness was spreading throughout the community, that charlatan would have wound up with buckshot adorning his gluteus maximus. How dare any group of elected bureaucrats ordain the shutdown of an economy? Telling citizens to "stay home" and "avoid contact" was tantamount to telling my grandfather to cease and desist in providing for his family. That he should shutter the ploughs and the reapers and the milking stations, that his sons and daughters need not feed the chickens or slop the hogs because the government was going to "protect them" from harm? Well, not only would promises like that go unheeded by the generations that preceded us; they would be treated with the utmost of distrust and the vilest of response.
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Friday, June 05, 2020
Stock Market Grinding Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Monday’s session was an inside day within a potential inside week/high-level consolidation context. Basically, the regular trading hours (RTH) session was confined to a 3059-3027 range on the Emini S&P 500 (ES), which is about 1%. In addition, as you may be aware by now, the average range per day has been narrowing for the past few weeks due to this methodical grind up and slower momentum when compared to Feb-April 2020. As previously discussed, the recent action is very similar to year 2019 as we’re seeing flashbacks from all the market tendencies of the easier overnight grind up and then chop around during RTH. (Nowadays, most gains have been made during globex vs RTH, hence easier setups during the overnight.)
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Thursday, June 04, 2020
Stock Market Election Year Cycles – What to Expect? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Every election year over the past five US Presidential election cycles has presented a unique set of price rotation events. Particularly evident in strongly contested US Presidential candidate battles where the voters are consumed with pre-election rhetoric. The 2007-08 election cycle was, in our opinion, very similar to the current market cycle in terms of consumer sentiment and economic function. The 2015-16 election cycle was less similar – yet still important for our researchers.
The economic conditions of the US economy and the global economy were vastly different prior to each US Presidential election cycle and continue to evolve throughout the current 2020 election cycle. Yet, our researchers believe the correlation of price volatility and rotation combined with the distraction for consumers as the election process occupies the hearts and minds of almost everyone across the globe takes a toll on the markets. Prior to almost any US Presidential, price volatility and trends tend to become much more exaggerated and extended.
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Thursday, June 04, 2020
Comparing Bitcoin to Other Market Sectors – Risk vs. Value / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Quite a few traders have been discussing the recent rally of Bitcoin to recently breach the $10,000 level on May 7, 2020. This psychological price level is a major milestone for Bitcoin – even though the price has fallen into an extended Flag/Pennant formation since reaching the recent peak. Many traders and speculators are expecting Bitcoin to rally alongside the precious metals sector as there appears to be a strong belief that Bitcoin aligns with precious metals well. Our researchers attempted to put this assumption into a simple test and this is what we found.
Bitcoin appears to be similarly volatile in comparison to precious metals, although the overall trending of Bitcoin has been moderately lower since the peak levels in February 2020 whereas the Gold/Silver sectors have seen advancing price activity over the same span of time. Precious metals rallied much quicker after the bottom near March 2020 whereas Bitcoin didn’t really begin to rally until late April 2020. Because of this disconnect in price association, we don’t believe Bitcoin is aligned with the precious metals segment.
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Wednesday, June 03, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX: Long-term trend – We are in an official bear market
Intermediate trend – Concluding initial rally in a downtrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Wednesday, June 03, 2020
US Stock Market Sets Up Technical Patterns – Pay Attention / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent “melt-up” in the US stock market after a moderate downside price move in early May 2020 has set up a number of technical patterns that traders need to pay attention to. This melt-up trend may continue for a bit longer, but price levels and actions are beginning to set up very clear patterns that warn of potential weakness in the future.
First, no matter how we attempt to spin the data, the US economy is very likely to fall into a moderate recession after the COVID-19 virus event has created a world-wide economic event and the recent riots and protests all across the US continue to disrupt and destroy property, businesses, and other assets.
It is almost like a one-two-three series of punches leading to a TKO. We have the virus event, the stay-at-home orders, and now the riots and protests. Recently, the National Guard has been called out to support local law enforcement and to protect people and properties. From our perspective, the situation is very far away from stable economic activity/growth supporting current stock price activity/levels.
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Tuesday, June 02, 2020
Let’s Make Sure This Crisis Doesn’t Go to Waste / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: John_Mauldin
A stock market crash wasn’t 1929’s only big event. Coca-Cola (KO) launched a new slogan: “The Pause That Refreshes.”
Coke’s marketers sensed the economy was headed down. How do you sell a completely unnecessary beverage to a struggling country? It’s simple, really: You remind consumers that treating themselves is important, too.
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Monday, June 01, 2020
The Inflation–Deflation Conundrum / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger considers what the post-pandemic world could look like in the aftermath of central bank actions. As I sit here on the shores of lovely Lake Scugog, its weed-infested waters lying in wait for countless unsuspecting propellers soon to be ensnared, I am reminded of the failed world of central banking and policy initiatives, which too has become ensnared in flora of its own making—a floating algae bloom of debt, deception and intervention.
Following this metaphor apropos, there is nary a dock with twenty miles of Port Perry that is navigable without encountering an impassable wall of goose droppings. Being Canada's favorite bird, these creatures are the height of ornithological fecal incontinence. Sadly, as a "protected species," citizens are prohibited from causing them not only any harm, but also inconvenience (as in shooing them off your property), resulting in spoiled lawns and malodorous decks and gazebos. When I see a flock of these flying manure sacks about to land on the lake, I am once again reminded of politics, where unelected officials are paid to engineer policies of unknown outcome and uncertain consequence, but where the result will be despoiled surroundings, economic disaster and odors of the foulest origin.
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Friday, May 29, 2020
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has become increasingly concerned that the US Fed support for the markets has pushed price levels well above true valuation levels and that a risk of a downside price move is still rather high. Recently, we published a research article highlighting our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system results showing the US stock market was 12% to 15% overvalued based on our ADL results. Today, Tuesday, May 26, the markets opened much higher which extends that true valuation gap.
We understand that everyone expects the markets to go back to where they were before the COVID-19 virus event happened – and that is likely going to happen over time. Our research team believes the disruption of the global economy over the past 70+ days will result in a very difficult Q2: 2020 and some very big downside numbers. Globally, we believe the disruption to the consumer and services sector has been strong enough to really disrupt forward expectations and earnings capabilities. We’ve been warning our friends and followers to be very cautious of this upside price trend as the Fed is driving prices higher while the foundations of the global economy (consumers, services, goods, and retail) continue to crumble away.
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Thursday, May 28, 2020
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Many stock market investors believe that prices have already bottomed. Numerous banks, brokers and financial firms have issued statements saying as much.
Indeed, the May Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which has offered analysis of financial and social trends since 1979, noted:
On April 28, Bloomberg interviewed four money managers to answer the question of "Where to Invest $1 Million Right Now." Cash was not mentioned.
All these professional financial observers might be right in their assessment that the bottom is in for stocks.
Then again, the stock market rise since the March 23 low might be a bear-market rally.
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Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
Many stock market investors believe that prices have already bottomed. Numerous banks, brokers and financial firms have issued statements saying as much.
Indeed, the May Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which has offered analysis of financial and social trends since 1979, noted:
On April 28, Bloomberg interviewed four money managers to answer the question of "Where to Invest $1 Million Right Now." Cash was not mentioned.
All these professional financial observers might be right in their assessment that the bottom is in for stocks.
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Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Precious Metals Hit Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The precious metals sector may have begun a correction on Wednesday.
The miners (GDX, GDXJ) sold off after reaching significant resistance levels while the metals are trading just below significant resistance levels.
We mentioned these targets in our article last week.
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Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Submissions
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Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system has called some incredible moves over the past 24+ months. It predicted the moves in Gold moving from $1340 to $1750 – including many of the trend changes that took place over the past 15+ months. It predicted the collapse in Crude Oil back in July 2019 – even calling for a sub-$20 price collapse in March/April 2020. Overall, the abilities of this unique predictive modeling tool have been nothing short of incredible.
For many weeks, we’ve been suggesting the US stock market has entered a no man’s land after the bottom setup near March 20, 2020. The US Fed and global central banks have stepped in to attempt to support the markets and to take pressures off financial institutions and consumers. These efforts presented a very real opportunity for technical traders to attempt to “ride the Fed wave” over the past 3+ weeks. Right now, things appear to be a bit more fragile going forward into the Summer months and the ADL predictive modeling system is showing us what to expect.
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Tuesday, May 26, 2020
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Tuesday’s refusal of the stock upswing didn’t really stick, and the S&P 500 opened higher. Trading with an upward bias during the session, the index closed comfortably above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. As outlandish as it might seem, does it denote a new bull market being on the way? It just can’t be overstated how crucial this level is to the stock market outlook…
S&P 500 in the Short-Run
Let’s start with the daily chart perspective (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com ):
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Monday, May 25, 2020
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As technical traders and researchers, we’ve been paying very close attention to the GREEN ARC Fibonacci resistance level on the SPY as a key level for the US stock market and any hope of a continued upside price rally. The SPY has traded near this level for the past three weeks and appears to be attempting a bit of an upside breakout right now. Yet, we understand a long holiday weekend is upon us in the US, Memorial Day, and after a big upside GAP on Monday, the US stock market has stalled over the past few days.
Our researchers believe this GREEN ARC is still acting as critical price resistance and believe the SPY may sell off into the end of the week resulting in a failed attempt to breach this key resistance level. If this happens, the failed attempt to break this resistance could prompt a change in price trend and initiate a new downside price trend. If this resistance level is broken by the end of this week, then we have a pretty solid indicator that continued bullish price trending may continue.
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Sunday, May 24, 2020
Stock Market Topping Behavior / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – We are in an official bear market
Intermediate trend – Concluding initial rally in a downtrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Saturday, May 23, 2020
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Kelsey_Williams
The 21st century was ushered in by fears about Y2k and how it might impact computer programming that was already in place. Part of the concern centered on the financial markets.
The Federal Reserve announced that they were ready to support the stock market and provide backup for financial institutions that might encounter difficulties.
The big day arrived and, other than an occasional glitch that seemed to be unrelated to the heightened global fears, the birth of the new century was pretty much uneventful. Overall, the markets remained relatively quiet. However, trouble was still brewing.
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