Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, July 23, 2019
Gold & Gold GDX Stocks Ripping. What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
It was a huge week for the gold stocks. GDX gained nearly 7% while GDXJ surged over 10%.
Gold hit $1450/oz after Thursday before selling off Friday. Silver met the same fate on Friday but managed to close the week up over 6% and at a new 52-week high.
Let’s take a look at the current technicals.
Gold closed the week just below $1427/oz. If it remains above $1420-$1425, then it is likely to trend towards $1475/oz, which is the only resistance between $1425 and $1525.
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Monday, July 22, 2019
My Biggest 'Fear' For Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
While we were prepared for last week’s run in silver in our service on ElliottWaveTrader.net, many are only now suggesting to buy into the metals after missing the last 10%+ move up in silver. Yes, that is what happens so often in financial markets. Markets go higher and people want to buy more the higher it goes. Yet I was getting a lot of pushback when I was suggesting people use price levels below 15 to accumulate silver holdings.
What strikes me as odd is that in every other aspect of your life, you are in search of “the deal.” If you want to make any other type of purchase, you invest a lot of time in finding the best or lowest price you can find out there in the market. Yet, that is not what happens with most investors in the financial markets.
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Monday, July 22, 2019
What Could The Next Gold Rally Look Like? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I have been going over the past data to attempt to identify future price targets and to help traders understand the true potential for the current precious metals price rally. We’ve been sharing our data and research with you for many months are pleased to continue to share our predictive modeling system’s outputs and data. Today, we wanted to play a bit of “what if” with the data in an attempt to relate just how explosive this move in precious metals may be over the next 6 to 12+ months.
Given our belief that precious metals prices will hold last weeks breakout to the upside and that Gold will rally in a parabolic price mode, we have attempted to identify how Silver would react given the price advance of Gold and the historic price ratio between Gold vs. Silver.
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Monday, July 22, 2019
Anatomy of an Impulse Move in Gold and Silver Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
A big impulse move that we are currently experiencing right now in the PM complex is separated by several small consolidation patterns that make up the entire impulse leg. Its these small consolidation patterns that give life to a big impulse move because without these little rest stops along the way the impulse move would burn itself out. One should welcome and anticipate these small consolidation patterns as they will help you understand where you maybe within the impulse move. I’ve seen as few as one and as many as four buildout during a strong impulse move.
Below is a daily chart for the first two impulse moves that formed at the beginning of the HUI’s bull market run that started in 2000. The very first impulse move formed 3 small consolidation patterns, two triangles and one H&S consolation pattern which led to the first top in May of 2001. At that point it was time for the HUI to consolidate its gains and begin to buildout the much larger black triangle. After the completion of the black triangle it was time for the second major impulse move up in the HUI’s still new bull market. As you can see the second major leg up formed three more consolidation patterns before exhausting itself. The second impulse move almost doubled the first one as the new bull market was gaining strength.
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Sunday, July 21, 2019
Silver to Continue Lagging Gold, Will Struggle to Overcome $17 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report joins me for a very interesting discussion on how a myriad of problems are really starting to show up in the all-too-important banking sector, explains the recent move in the precious metals and gives some very key price levels for gold and especially silver that he’s watching very closely.
Craig also addresses the recent silver underperformance to gold in recent years and what’s behind that. So, stick around for an in-depth conversation with our friend Craig Hemke, coming up after this week’s market update.
Well, silver has finally made its move! After languishing and lagging over the past several months, silver prices broke out in a big way this week.
The white metal rallied to a one-year high on Thursday. As of this Friday recording, silver is packing a hefty weekly gain of nearly a dollar or 6.3% to bring spot prices to $16.25 an ounce.
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Saturday, July 20, 2019
Sahm Unemployment Index and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
What is the difference between a recession and a depression? When your neighbor loses their job, it’s a recession. When you lose your job, that’s a depression! Not funny? Do not worry, we won’t make more jokes. Instead, we’ll analyze a new, but very important and powerful recessionary indicator. We invite you to read our today’s article, which discusses the Sahm Unemployment Index, and find out what does it say about the US economy and the gold market.
What is the difference between a recession and a depression? When your neighbor loses their job, it’s a recession. When you lose your job, that’s a depression!
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Saturday, July 20, 2019
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Results Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks continue to rally on balance, after a major upside breakout extended their strong upleg. That’s driving mounting interest in this recently-forsaken sector. With the latest quarterly earnings season underway, traders will soon enjoy big fundamental updates from the gold miners. They are likely to report good Q2 results, with improving operational performances supporting further stock-price gains.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 40 calendar days after quarter-ends. The gold miners generally release their quarterly reports in the latter half of that window. So Q2’19’s will arrive between late July to mid-August.
After spending decades intensely studying and actively trading this contrarian sector, there’s no gold-stock data I look forward to more than the miners’ quarterly financial and operational reports. They offer a true and clear snapshot of what’s really going on, shattering the misconceptions bred by ever-shifting winds of sentiment. Nearly all fundamental analysis is based off the data gold miners provide in quarterlies.
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Friday, July 19, 2019
Silver Seems To Shock The Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
This article was first written for members on Tuesday July 16: The talk of the metals market on Tuesday was silver. It seems many were shocked and surprised by this rally in silver on Tuesday. And, I am sitting here scratching my head as to why all the shock.
Well, as I think about it, I am starting to understand the shock if you had been reading what everyone has been writing about silver. Whereas the rest of the complex has already moved strongly higher, silver has been significantly lagging. And, I have been hearing one excuse after another as to why it is lagging, such as silver “has been acting as an industrial metal.”.
But, last I looked, the economy was humming along. So, why would an industrial metal be lagging? Moreover, it certainly did not act like an industrial metal on Tuesday.
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Friday, July 19, 2019
Precious Metals Big Picture, as Silver Gets on its Horse / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
While many are talking about major new bull markets in gold, silver and the miners I find it safer to set realistic goals within a still very bullish outlook. After all, we became bullish in November, had to retrench due to over-bullish sentiment and fading fundamentals in February (both situations linked here) and then have been back in the bull seat since the gold stock launch as noted on June 3rd.
The point being, I have nothing to prove to you; nothing to woo you and tempt your greed impulse about. NFTRH has simply called the sector in line with its fundamentals and technicals, and that is what we continue to do as of this day. We chart 20 quality miners () each week and note short-term targets, resistance, etc. for the miners, gold and silver routinely.
The other priority is to stay on top of the still-bullish fundamentals. Most recently silver joined the party and is probably slamming our favored theme into gear, which is for it to take over leadership from gold and potentially lead the macro to a future inflationary cycle. Easy now, that is still in the realm of potential, not yet reality. But all of this fun – and it has obviously been fun lately – takes place against a big picture that is lumbering along at its own pace.
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Wednesday, July 17, 2019
Core Inflation Rises but Fed Is Going to Cut Rates. Will Gold Gain? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The combination doesn’t feel right. Actually, something stinks – just what is it exactly? Payrolls were strong, while core inflation rose. Nevertheless, the Fed signaled it’s going to cut interest rate. Our shiny yellow friend, can you help us make sense of it all?
Is Really Inflation Muted? Core CPI Rises
The CPI rose 0.1 percent in June, by the same amount as in May, the government said on Thursday. However, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, jumped 0.3 percent following a previous increase of 0.1 percent. So, the core rate scored the biggest gain in a year and a half, which suggests that the Fed’s fears about tame inflation might be exaggerated.
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Wednesday, July 17, 2019
This Needs To Happen Before Silver Really Takes Off / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Hubert_Moolman
Significant nominal peaks in the price of silver tend to come after significant nominal peaks in the Dow as well as Dow/Gold ratio peaks. This has been the case for the last 90 years at least. This is mainly due to the special relationship between silver, the stock markets and debt.
These stock market rallies are driven by the expansion of the money supply (debt), causing a big increase in the value of paper assets (including stocks) relative to real assets. When the increase in credit or the money supply has run its course, and is unable to drive paper prices higher; value then flees from paper assets to safe assets such as physical gold and silver, causing massive price increase.
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Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Elliott Wave Analysis of DUST (Gold Miners Bear 3x Shares ETF) / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: WavePatternTraders
The strong decline over the last few weeks appears to argue for an impulse wave, I suspect it's close to ending a 3rd wave, so an up-down sequence is still favored before it completes 5 waves from the May 2019 high.I favor its very close to seeing a bounce for wave [iv], although I am still expecting to see further weakness for wave [v] thereafter once wave [iv] ends, however, I do think a new high on the GDX needs to be watched, as it too can end wave [iii] of an impulse wave, although in the opposite direction.
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Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold and gold stocks especially continue to shrug off bits and pieces of bad news.
No escalation in the trade war? The selloff lasted one day and the sector rebounded strongly the following day.
Strong headline jobs number? Again, the weakness was a buying opportunity.
This past week there was more.
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Monday, July 15, 2019
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up our good friend David Smith of The Morgan Report and MoneyMetals.com columnist joins me for a wonderful discussion on the state of the precious metals, an exciting new silver backed cryptocurrency and when he believes silver will finally play catch up to gold’s rally. So be sure you stick around for my conversation with David Smith, coming up after this week’s market update.
As Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress this week, investors became more confident that they will soon see interest rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrials traded up to a new record high while commodities and precious metals also gained strength on Powell’s dovish comments.
Gold prices currently trade at $1,408 an ounce, up 0.6% since last Friday’s close. Silver is up 0.7% this week and currently settles at $15.18. Platinum is putting in a weekly gain of 1.7% to check in at $827. And finally, palladium is off slightly from record highs put in earlier in the week. It trades at $1,547 per ounce, down 1.5% now for the week as of this Friday morning recording.
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Monday, July 15, 2019
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
If you are bullish on gold prices right now, you are running with the crowd. That is perfectly fine, unless the crowd is running in the wrong direction. Or, maybe the race hasn’t started yet.
With all of the talk about fundamentals for gold, it would be nice if someone could set their emotions aside and look at some facts that might bring some clarity to the subject.
Nearly every recent article about gold includes some reference to one or more of the following items: interest rates, trade wars, Indian gold demand, slowing economy, recession fears, the stock market, housing starts, another world war, terrorism, social unrest, etc., etc.
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Saturday, July 13, 2019
Could Gold Launch Into A Parabolic Upside Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We believe Gold is setting up for an incredible upside breakout move after reaching our predicted target near $1450. For those of you that have been following our research and Gold calls, we’ve nailed this move and our October 2018 predictive modeling call has continued to mirror (almost exactly) the price movement in Gold over the past 10+ months. See the chart below.
Saturday, July 13, 2019
Right on the Gold Bull Market - Audio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Chris Vermeulen had been calling for a gold breakout for a number of months. Some FSN Members snarkily doubted his call. However, they’re not doubting him any longer, what with gold breaking resistance and now hovering near $1400 the ounce. Chris oil call was also remarkably on the money, with oil crashing to the low $50’s from the mid $60’s. Chris is calling for silver to soon join the fun and then it will be off to the races.
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Friday, July 12, 2019
Gold Price Selloff Risk High / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold surged dramatically in recent weeks, powering higher to a decisive bull-market breakout. Gold’s first major secular highs in years have really improved sentiment, with bullishness mounting. But gold-futures buying fuel is largely exhausted, after the colossal amount expended to catapult gold back over $1400. That leaves this metal at high risk of suffering a major selloff, a healthy correction in an ongoing bull market.
Even the most-powerful bull markets flow and ebb, taking two steps forward before one step back. Gold is certainly no exception. At best in late June, its current bull extended to modest 35.4% gains over 3.5 years. Those weren’t linear, the path to gold’s recent breakout high was quite volatile. It included a 29.9% upleg, a 17.3% correction, a 20.4% upleg, a 13.6% correction, and today’s upleg running 21.2% at best.
This alternating repeating bull-market pattern is simple, uplegs are inevitably followed by material selloffs often extending into correction territory. Periodic corrections are essential to keep bulls healthy, working off the excessive greed that builds as uplegs peak. That risks sucking in too much capital too soon, prematurely burning out bulls. Corrections rebalance sentiment, bleeding away greed to extend bulls’ longevity.
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Friday, July 12, 2019
Silver Price Very Long-term / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Just for fun because I am a chart guy who all too often bores you (and me) to death with ratio and indicator charts and all too seldom makes charts just for the fun of it anymore…
So this long-term silver chart is just for the fun of it. What do we have here?
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Friday, July 12, 2019
Powell Testimony Propels Gold Above $1,400 - the Countdown to July’s FOMC Is On / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Hot Wednesday is behind us. We had both the Powell’s testimony to the Congress and the released minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. The biggest yesterday’s winner is clearly gold. If you would like to know why – and what situation the yellow metal is in currently – we invite you to read our today’s article!
Powell Fails to Push Back Against Market Expectations of Rate Cut in July
What a day! Gold is back above $1,400, as one can see in the chart below. What happened exactly?
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