Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, August 06, 2019

Automakers Flash Warning over Supplies of Critical Metals / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: MoneyMetals

While motorists continue to enjoy the benefits of a longstanding supply glut in crude oil, car manufacturers are becoming increasingly worried about shortages. Not in liquid fuels, but in metals.

The automotive industry requires certain strategic, rare, and precious metals. Without them, batteries for electric cars wouldn’t function and catalytic converters for gasoline engines wouldn’t work.

Many of the metals that play a critical role in both conventional and electric vehicles now face potential supply shortfalls.

Electric vehicle maker Tesla warned recently of “looming challenges for the metal components used to make EV batteries.” Specifically, supplies of lithium, cobalt, copper, and nickel are failing to keep pace with exponential demand growth for batteries used in cars, solar power systems, and handheld devices.

Sunday, August 04, 2019

Palladium Collapses After Double-Top From Early July 2019 / Commodities / Palladium

By: Chris_Vermeulen

It was almost like Palladium traders followed our research to the letter when the trend reversed on July 11, 2019.  Our research team issued a report indicating a Double-Top pattern was setting up in Palladium on July 3, 2019.  At that time, our proprietary cycle indicators and our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling systems suggested a large downside price swing was highly likely.

Saturday, August 03, 2019

Trade Tariffs, Rate Cuts, and Devaluation Whispers Set Up Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Frank Holmes of US Global Investors joins me to talk about gold, the key driver that will likely take it higher and why we need to be paying more attention to the trendlines than the headlines. Don’t miss another great conversation with the well-traveled and highly respected Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.

Well, after months of presidential complaining, tweeting, and pressuring, Donald Trump finally got a rate cut from the Fed.

A lower interest rate was supposed to stimulate the stock market and make the dollar cheaper versus the currencies of exporting countries -- thereby making U.S. products more competitive according to Trumponomics. Instead, stocks fell and the U.S. Dollar Index broke out to a two-year high following the Federal Reserve’s policy move on Wednesday.

Saturday, August 03, 2019

Gold Stocks Seasonal Autumn Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have surged dramatically this summer, catapulted higher by gold’s major bull-market breakout.  That atypical strength bucking the normal summer-doldrums slump has carried this sector right back to its traditional strong season.  That begins with a robust autumn rally starting in late summers.  This year’s autumn-rally setup is very unusual, but investment buying could still fuel further gains.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Friday, August 02, 2019

No Sign Yet of Cyclical Inflation and the Gold Miners Don’t Mind a Bit / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Contrary to majority opinion, gold and especially the gold mining stocks that leverage its macro status are not about inflation, especially cyclical inflation that runs with a positive economy.

Making an appropriate return after a few months on hiatus, ladies and gentlemen… the Macrocosm.

Friday, August 02, 2019

Precious Metals React To Fed Shockwaves – Ready For Next Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

On July 31, 2019, the US Federal Reserve decreased the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) by 25 basis points.  We believe the US Fed was pushed to take this action for three reasons that are directly related to the fear and greed that is abundant in the global markets.

Reason #1 Fed Had To Cut Rates

First, the US Fed is very concerned that the US housing market has stagnated and weakened over the past 16+ months.  The Fed has pushed the FFR towards our modeling system’s upper boundary (2.0 to 2.25) many months ago and this has pushed the housing market over a supply/demand precipice that may already be too far gone for a substantial recovery.  The US Fed, attempting to prevent another housing market collapse, must attempt to ease lending in an attempt to spark new real estate activity.

Thursday, August 01, 2019

Silver Price Tragets for 2019 - Forecast Update (1/2) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Silver, the precious metals coiled swing has just given us a taste of what to expect as the price shot higher during July, last trading at $16,56, up 12% since my analysis of 10th June ($14.74). Silver had been lagging the gold price all year, even entering into a downtrend early July that resolved in a $2, 15% surge higher as the following Silver / Gold graph illustrates.

Thursday, August 01, 2019

Precious Metal Stocks Are Not An Investment They Are A Speculation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Bob_Kirtley

Preamble

Let's start by defining investment and speculation, and for this purpose, I have used Investopedia:

An investment is an asset or item acquired with the goal of generating income or appreciation.

Speculation refers to the act of conducting a financial transaction that has substantial risk of losing value but also holds the expectation of a significant gain or other major value.

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Gold Awaits as Boris Johnson and the Fed Take the Spotlight / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Last week, Boris Johnson became the PM of the UK. The odds of hard Brexit increased, sending pound lower. Now, markets await tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. Gold closely monitors these events and thinks about which way to go next.

Boris the Brexiteer

Last week, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson – for the people of the Great Britain known as Boris Johnson with a funny mop of blonde hair – became the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, after Theresa May resigned. And who knows – he might very well be the last prime minister of the Great Britain, as the union comes under increasing internal pressure due to Nicola Sturgeon’s push for a second referendum on Scottish independence. Remember, not all constituent parts of the United Kingdom voted for Brexit – the lion’s share of that vote came from England.

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Watch These Key Levels in Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The precious metals sector appears to have started a correction. 

It was roaring higher until natural resistance kicked in and the US Dollar grinded its way higher, towards its 2019 high. Factor in the Fed decision this week and it has created a natural “buy the rumor, sell the news” event. 

We cannot know for certain what the Federal Reserve will do or even more importantly, how the market will react. But we can take note of key levels in these markets.

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Crude Oil Should Breakdown to $51 This Week / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is predicting that Crude Oil will break recent support levels near $55 and move very quickly down to levels near $50 to $51 before August 2nd, 2019.  The move to near the $50 price level is likely to be a 100% measured Fibonacci price extension related to the initial downside move from $61 to $55 earlier in July 2019.

After this new downside move completes, we expect Crude Oil will form a short-term price base just above $50 that may last many days or weeks.  Our earlier analysis of Oil called this move and we outline our future oil expectations.  For more information about this call, please review the following research posts.

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Central Bank Gold Agreement No Longer Necessary in Europe / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Submissions

Last Friday, July 26, 2019 - the spot gold price got what should be the opposite of a “Friday News Dump” using a longer gold price history perspective.

Effectively the significant bank power of Europe (ECB) and 21 other national central banks publically agreed that no gold bullion sale coordination is needed this September 2019 and after.

These +20 central 'gold holding' banks likely agree, that to sell sovereign gold bullion currently, is the exact opposite of what any prudent central bank should be doing.

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Gold Sound Money Movement Gains Momentum in the States / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up we continue our discussion on the importance of sound money -- and we are going to check in on the progress at both the state and federal levels. Jp Cortez of the Sound Money Defense League joins me to update us about sound money bills across the nation and also shares his group’s sound money scorecard -- revealing which states have policies that favor sound money and which states are simply abysmal. So, stick around for my very interesting conversation with Jp Cortez, coming up after this week’s market update.

As investors look ahead to a likely rate cut next week by the Federal Reserve, gold and silver markets are consolidating their recent gains. The gold market is giving back 0.4% this week, bringing spot prices to $1,422 an ounce. Silver, on the other hand, is showing significant outperformance for the second straight week – up 1.2% since last Friday’s close to trade at $16.49, and the fact that it hasn’t broken down to this point after last week’s rally should be viewed quite positively.

Turning to platinum, the catalytic metal registers a weekly gain of 2.1% to come in at $867. And finally, palladium is headed higher by 1.3% this week to trade at $1,533 per ounce as of this Friday morning recording.

Monday, July 29, 2019

Gold, Silver and Central Bank Folly: Blame the Boomers / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger muses on how the baby boom generation has impacted markets through time, and discusses how he will play the current precious metals bull.

"Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper." —Ayn Rand

The baby-boom generation, of which I am a less-than-proud member, blew it.

There was a time long, long ago when the mention of the words "baby boomer" evoked a sense of pride of membership. Amid the prosperity of the post-WWII era, birth rates in North America soared while the sons and daughters of many men and women that fought in the war became the dominant demographic force by the year 1966.

Monday, July 29, 2019

Gold ETF That Obliterates its Competition / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Bob Moriarty of 321Gold profiles a precious metals ETF that has "absolutely obliterated its main competition." The U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF (NYSE: GOAU) just had its two-year anniversary at the end of June, and since inception, the fund has absolutely obliterated its main competition.

GOAU delivered a remarkable 41% since inception through July 24, crushing the hugely popular VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), which were up 32.7% and 27.6% over the same period.

Monday, July 29, 2019

Google News Articles and Searches for Recession and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Everyone is discussing recession right now. But how much do they actually chatter about it? Does this talk reflect or change people’s perception? And the key question is: can the world-related indices predict the recession? Are they useful for the precious metals investors?

It turns out that yes! At least to some extent. Let’s start with the R-word index created by The Economist. It counts how many stories in the The Washington Post and The New York Times are using the word “recession” in a quarter. The idea behind the indicator is that economic downturn coincides with a surge in the frequency of the that scary world starting with R. The index surges when recessions are on the minds of people and the financial journalists who write articles about them. And, indeed, it has been pretty good at spotting economic turning points over the past three decades. As one see in the figure below, the R-word index signaled the start of recessions in America in 1990, 2001, and 2007.

Sunday, July 28, 2019

Gold Price Breakout - Trend Forecast 2019 July Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Houston we have lift off! So the gold price took off like a rocket in commemoration of the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 Launch and Lunar landings. One small step for precious metals one giant leap for gold bugs as the gold price barely paused at a series of resistance levels, $1300, $1350, $1370, $1400, none managed to hold gold in check for more than a couple of days as the price gravitated towards a rendezvous with $1450, which the gold price hit a week ago before retreating to currently stand at $1419.

Sunday, July 28, 2019

Silver Outperforming Gold Price / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold.  This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years.  This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside.  Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying.  Silver’s upside potential is massive.

Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians.  Historically silver prices have been mostly driven by gold, with the white metal amplifying moves in the yellow metal.  Silver has generally leveraged gold by at least 2x in the past.  And rarely silver skyrockets as higher prices and bullish sentiment feed on themselves in powerful virtuous circles fueling huge gains.

Silver’s legendary upside is largely the result of it being such a tiny market.  Silver’s leading fundamental authority is the Silver Institute.  In its latest World Silver Survey covering 2018, it reported that total world demand ran 1033.5m ounces last year.  That was worth a mere $16.2b at 2018’s average silver prices, a rounding error in markets terms.  That was just 1/11th the size of last year’s world gold demand worth $179.4b!

Sunday, July 28, 2019

Cobalt to Share EV Battery Duties with Nickel / Commodities / Electric Cars

By: Richard_Mills

In the spring of 2018 Tesla came out with a bold prediction: bringing the amount of cobalt used in their Model 3 battery cells down to zero. 

“Cells used in Model 3 are the highest energy density cells used in any electric vehicle. We have achieved this by significantly reducing cobalt content per battery pack while increasing nickel content and still maintaining superior thermal stability,” the company stated in its Q1 2018 update letter. “The cobalt content of our Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminum cathode chemistry is already lower than next-generation cathodes that will be made by other cell producers with a Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt ratio of 8:1:1,” Tesla boasted. 

In the quest to reduce input costs, be socially responsible and to provide longer driving ranges, like Tesla, those other cell producers are wanting to reduce the amount of cobalt used in their EV batteries and increase the content of nickel. Typically EV batteries use NCA or NMC type lithium-ion - 60% of the world’s cobalt supply comes from the DRC where mining it is controversial.

Tesla is ahead of its competitors with respect to this switch. The company only uses 5% cobalt in their electric vehicle battery metals (the Model 3 uses 2.8% cobalt) versus 30% across the industry (eg. four times less than Volkswagen). 

Saturday, July 27, 2019

Natural Gas Sets Up Two New Trades – Here They Are / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Before we discuss these incredible trade setups in the Energy sector, we have to discuss the continued shifting global economy and how that relates to these setups.  Nearly three weeks ago, we posted a research article suggesting Crude Oil would call to levels near $50 over the next 30+ days, then stall for about 45 days before falling further and potentially attempting new lows near $40 ppb.  It is important to understand certain aspects of the global economy, economic demand and how it relates to seasonal patterns for Energy. 

We believe the move lower is Crude Oil is related to a supply glut that continues to plague the global markets while global economic trade, shipping, and activity continue to weaken.  Too much oil supply with weakening global economic activity means Crude Oil will likely waffle lower until this dynamic changes.