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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Friday, September 16, 2016

Why Has Gold Stalled? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s young bull market has totally stalled out in the past couple months.  This major loss of momentum following gold’s powerful surges in 2016’s first half is really souring sentiment and vexing traders.  They are trying to figure out if gold’s recent consolidation drift is the dawn of a new bearish trend or a healthy pause within an ongoing bull.  The likely answer comes from understanding what’s causing gold’s high consolidation.

Back in mid-December right after the Fed’s first rate hike in 9.5 years, gold slumped to a miserable new 6.1-year secular low.  That was driven by heavy gold-futures selling from speculators, who were utterly convinced higher rates are gold’s mortal nemesis.  But with bearishness so extraordinary and investors’ gold allocations so low, a mighty mean reversion higher for gold was very likely in 2016 as I wrote in late December.

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Commodities

Friday, September 16, 2016

Trump or HIlary? Which Presidents Have Been Best for the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In previous articles, we have examined the gold’s performance in different election cycle years. Now, we deepen our analysis and investigate the behavior of the shiny metal in each presidential cycle in more detail. We analyze how gold performed under each President and which governing party (or whether the new President is an incumbent or a newcomer) affects the gold market the most.

The first cycle ran from 1973 to 1976, when Richard Nixon (who in 1971 closed a gold window), and later, after the Watergate scandal, Gerald Ford were in office. As the gold standard was abandoned, while inflation and uncertainty surged, it was a good period for the shiny metal, which rallied 114.27 percent.

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Commodities

Friday, September 16, 2016

Deutsche Bank Initiates Coverage of Silver Wheaton / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

Citing a strong balance sheet and a large portfolio of diverse gold and silver streaming assets worldwide, Deutsche Bank has initiated coverage of Silver Wheaton with a Buy rating.

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Commodities

Friday, September 16, 2016

War is Peace, Silver is Plentiful, and Other Misconceptions / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The urgency for owning a financial put against the stupidity of central planners and politicians grows by the minute.

We continue to witness a multifaceted array of failure heaped upon failure while repeating history on a dramatic scale.

One of the great new wonders of the modern world is the credibility given to high profile economists.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Crude Oil Prices: Investors Getting Comfortable with New Levels? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nicholas_Kitonyi

When the price of oil breached above the $50 level, everyone thought alas, we could be hitting $70 before the end of the year. It was a steady rally that appeared to have turned the tide completely. However, things did not turn out as earlier predicted. Within no time, oil prices dropped again below $50 and have since failed to reach those levels. If anything, there are fresh fears that the price of crude oil could drop below $40 if the production levels remain unchecked.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 September Update / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

At the start of this year the prevailing mood in the oil market was not just one of doom and gloom but of catastrophe as the oil price sunk below $30, skidding by the middle of February to virtually touch $25, a period during which many prominent analysts and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs all of whom were bearish on the prospects for oil price this year even suggesting that the oil price could sink to as low as $10 (Standard Chartered) which meant that the oil producers, the frackers and even a string of nations such as Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela were on the fast track towards going bust as their oil profits that financed state spending budget deficits evaporated.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Gold Waiting on the US Dollar to Begin its Intermediate Decline / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Gary_Savage

Gold is flagging above the 200 week moving average while it waits for the dollar to generate the downward leg of its intermediate cycle.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Precious Metals Entering, Stocks and Bonds Exiting Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jeb_Handwerger

Summary
A)Stocks have been in an uptrend for more than five years and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has more than tripled since 2008 lows.
B)I am concerned that these gains are overinflated and pumped higher through these policies of the Central Bankers and stocks are way overvalued and extremely overbought.
C)Because we have not seen a meaningful correction in the Dow in more than seven years, the chance of a significant bear market remains higher than ever.
D)I believe the Dow-Gold ratio is about to turn in favor of precious metals in a big way.
E)The Fed raising rates could be good for precious metals as investors may finally rotate out of overvalued stocks in search for equities backed by precious metals.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Update / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

At the start of the year the prevailing mood in the oil market was not just one of doom and gloom but of catastrophe as the oil price sunk below $30, skidding by the middle of February to virtually touch $25, a period during which many prominent analysts and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs all of whom were bearish on the prospects for oil price this year even suggesting that the oil price could sink to as low as $10 (Standard Chartered) which meant that the oil producers, the frackers and even a string of nations such as Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela were on the fast track towards going bust in as their oil profits that financed state spending budget deficits evaporated.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

The Gold To Housing Ratio As A Valuation Indicator / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dan_Amerman

The Gold to Housing ratio is a quite useful measure for evaluating relative values between real estate and gold, and also has an interesting historical track record for identifying turning points in long-term gold price trends.  In light of the surge in gold prices in 2016, and the continuing strength in housing – it is worthwhile revisiting this basic measure, because the results aren't at all what most people likely think they are.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

GDXJ Gold Stocks - A Diamond in the Rough / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Rambus_Chartology

It wasn’t until yesterday that I could draw in a possible bottom rail of a possible diamond pattern on the GDXJ. This potential diamond pattern has been forming since the first of July. As it stands right now the diamond pattern has completed five reversal points which theoretically puts it into a reversal pattern category. With that said the bounce yesterday may have started the all important 6th reversal point to the upside which if completed would make this diamond a consolidation pattern to the upside. Keep in mind this potential diamond is still developing with no resolution either way yet.

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

There Is Only One Right Way to Do a Precious Metals IRA / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: MoneyMetals

A small handful of outfits in our industry recently sprang up and started heavily promoting a so-called “self-storage” or “LLC” IRA. The pitch is for you to establish an LLC company to store the metals on behalf of your IRA in your home (or nearby).

At first glance, it sounds like an attractive option. Investors buy metals to increase privacy and control. Some do not want to rely on third-party vaults and would prefer having personal access to their metals 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. We totally agree with this sentiment when it comes to precious metals that you personally and directly own. But anyone considering this “self-storage IRA” scheme should be extremely careful and aware of the risks.

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

How Gold Bugs can Have their cake and eat it too by Embracing the trend / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Sol_Palha

Executive ability is deciding quickly and getting somebody else to do the work.John G. Pollard

Many individuals sit back and look wistfully at the 1st stage of the Gold Bull Market they missed.  It is interesting that people focus on what they lost but not what they might miss.  Since  Gold topped out in 2011, many sectors took off;  one could have deployed a portion of one’s funds in any of these sectors and walked away with healthy gains. Instead, the classic Gold bug clung to Gold and let all these opportunities slide away.

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

You Didn’t See This Bubble Burst Coming / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Harry_Dent

I keep saying that in the next great crash, everything will get swept up in the onslaught – with virtually no exceptions.

And that goes too for what we eat!

The 30-Year Commodity Cycle peaked in mid-2008 and has been the first major bubble to crash and burn.

The CRB (Commodity) Index has been down as low as 67%, with the potential for 74% or lower in the next few years.

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Sorry, You Can’t Have Your Gold - Own Physical, Allocated Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

“Sorry, You Can’t Have Your Gold” by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com

In this publication, we warn regularly of the risk involved in storing wealth in banks. They’ve made the removal of your deposits increasingly difficult in addition to colluding with governments to allow them to legally freeze or confiscate your money.

To add insult to injury, they’re creating reporting requirements with regard to the contents of  safe deposit boxes and restricting what can be stored in them – again, at risk of confiscation.

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Gold Boom! End Game Nears As Central Banks Buying Up Gold Mining Companies! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jeff_Berwick

When you watch mainstream media or listen to central bankers, gold is constantly deemed to be the redheaded stepchild of the investment industry.

Just that alone, is unbelievable, considering that gold has been one of the best performing investments of the 21st century.  On December 31st, 1999, gold closed at $290.25.  As of today it is trading at $1327.80.

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Correction in Gold and Silver Markets Continues / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the multiweek correction in the gold and silver markets.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Gold and United States Imported Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DeviantInvestor

The US has imported crude oil for many decades. The following data (1970 – 2015) comes from the Energy Information Administration of the US government. This data shows reported barrels of crude oil imported into the US.

(Note: This is not a comprehensive analysis of imported energy, nor does it compensate for exports of crude oil, imports or exports of coal, natural gas or other energy sources.)

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Silver Will Be A Top Performing Asset In The Next Financial Crisis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The much awaited Jackson Hole speech by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen – and the subsequent nonfarm payrolls data failed to ignite the prospects of a rate hike this September of 2016. The market now forecasts only a 21% probability of a rate hike in this month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of a rate hike in December of 2016 stands at just above 50%.

Time and again, I have explained why the Fed cannot hike rates in 2016. Contrary many market experts, my view has stood the test of time and has come to fruition. According to my research, the chances of a rate hike in December of 2016 are also very bleak. Nonetheless, the Fed speakers will continue to “jawbone” the dollar, the way they have been doing for the whole year.

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Commodities

Sunday, September 11, 2016

Gold vs Stocks: The New Normal / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Nicholas_Kitonyi

Stock prices have always been deemed to have an inverse relationship with the price of gold mainly because unlike the yellow metal, investors tend to fancy them when global economies are doing well. Gold is often seen as a fallback plan when things go caput in the stock market.

Stocks are income driven and if the economy is doing well, then equity prices are likely to improve to mirror the change in the overall economic outlook. Income driven investments tend to provide better returns than currency investments in a strong economy.

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