Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, June 30, 2009
What Happened on the Banking Index Yesterday? / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
Given the action on the Banking Index in the past week, it is only fair that I post an update on this index today.
The Banking Index has been one of those fascinating charts that has been amazing relative to support and resistance levels.
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Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Stock Markets To Finish The Quarter With Huge Percentage Gains / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
The September British Pound surged to the upside overnight despite news that the U.K. economy shrank more than previously forecast. The U.K. Gross Domestic Product report showed that during the first quarter the economy suffered its biggest contraction since 1958. Weakness was seen across the board in the economy as everything from construction to services showed some sort of weakness.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Stock Market Index Trading New Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Official signal: CASH on SPX __ __ __ __
CASH on NDX __ __ __ __
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Consider the Components of Long-term Stock Market Returns / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
The raison d’être of investment or wealth management is to maintain, or hopefully improve, one’s standard of living, i.e. to earn a real return on the investment amount. This sounds easy enough if one considers that the S&P 500 Index (and its predecessors prior to 1957) delivered a nominal return of 8.7% per annum from January 1871 to June 2008. With an average inflation rate of 2.2% per annum over the period, this meant a real return of 6.5% per annum.
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Tuesday, June 30, 2009
What Happened to the Stock Market New Goldilocks Era? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
In 1999, when I wrote Riding the Bear – How to Prosper in the Coming Bear Market, I said the market was in a bubble, and that when it burst the subsequent bear market would be one of the worst since that of 1929-32.
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Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Inflationary Pressures and the MAE Faber Investment Strategy / Stock-Markets / Inflation
William Hester, CFA is a Senior Financial Analyst with the Hussman Funds, and he has written an interesting article that attempts to answer the question: "does the current economic backdrop yet have the characteristics that usually coincide with the end of secular bear markets?"
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Tuesday, June 30, 2009
A 20-Year Stocks Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Long time readers know that I am a huge fan of the work of Neil Howe. His book, The Fourth Turning, was one of the seminal pieces of my reading over the last 30 years. And it has turned out to be stunningly prophetic. Uncomfortably so. A roughly 80 year cycle has been repeating itself for centuries in the Anglophile world, broken up into four generations or turnings. We have begun what Howe called many years ago The Fourth Turning.
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Monday, June 29, 2009
Stock Market Complacency as Measured by VIX Returns to Wall Street / Stock-Markets / Volatility
Bloomberg is reporting VIX Drops to Lowest Level Since Lehman’s Collapse as Fear Ebbs.
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Monday, June 29, 2009
Stock Market Summer Crash Forecast / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
A skyrocketing yield curve is normally a sign the economy is dangerously heating up, and that market rates in fixed income securities are signaling the likelihood of higher administered rates soon as well. Along these lines then, short-term rates have been rising on the expectation that the Fed will need to talk about higher rates at its next meeting on July 22nd, with a corresponding collapse in both the yield curve and gold. It should be noted gold is tracing out an exact pattern match on the yield curve, and rate expectations.
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Monday, June 29, 2009
CNBC Admits to Manipulated Market that Continues To Be Propped Up By Government Intervention And Manipulation / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
Readers of my articles and those of other authors on this site will have long come to know that CNBC lacks any credibility as it continued to pump out bullish market propaganda in the face of the severest bear market since the 1930's, whilst at the same time engaging in the re-writing of history on the channels past market calls as witnessed numerous times on Jim Cramer's Mad Money Show.
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Monday, June 29, 2009
Important Week Ahead For Economic Data / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Equity markets finished down again last week with the Dow Jones off 1.2% and the FTSE 100 down 2.2%. World indices had been on the back foot from the very start of the week due to a bearish World Bank report where they downgraded their forecasts for global economic prospects. Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve interest rate decision caused little movement as they left the target rate at between 0 and 0.25% as expected. It was a high volume week with the economic data a shade better than expected on average.
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Monday, June 29, 2009
Stock Index Trading Signals Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Current Positioning:
SPY: Short 50%
QQQQ: Short 25% (going to cash on Monday)
Sunday, June 28, 2009
New Stock Market Trading Signal Move to Cash on Nasdaq From Short / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The Nasdaq is showing continued strength and therefore the system is moving to cash. As a result, for the open on Monday June 29, we're going to suggest the following:Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Honest Money Gold & Silver Report - Market Wrap W/E 26th July / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
The Economy - Some pretty good economic reports came out this week, at least on the face of it. The talking heads and spin masters were busy plying their trade. The art of deception lives on – unfortunately. Let’s dive beneath the surface(s).
First quarter GDP was revised up to an annualized 5.5 percent contraction. This is an improvement on the fourth quarters decline.
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Sunday, June 28, 2009
Indian Stock Market, What to Expect Next Week / Stock-Markets / India
Last week saw lots of ups and downs in Nifty. Good news is that it was able to close up for the week. Another good news is that it was able to hold it’s support above the breakout levels of 4100+. Does that mean we are again in for a rally in the coming days/this week? Let’s asses.
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Sunday, June 28, 2009
Stock Market Investor Sentiment: Summer Doldrums / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
It is the end of the month. It is the end of the quarter. It is the week before a holiday. This gives the market a slight upward bias for the coming week. In the intermediate term, the "Dumb Money" indicator remains bullish to an extreme degree, and typically this is a bearish signal. This is a real head wind for the market. Since the "dumb money" turned bullish 8 weeks ago, the S&P500 has lost a little more than 1%, the NASDAQ 100 is up about 6% and the Russell 2000 is flat. For the week ahead, I suspect the shorter term bullish bias and the longer term bearish bias will make the markets choppy and range bound. It is the summer doldrums!
Sunday, June 28, 2009
SHEPHERD’S of Financial Markets ILLUSION / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Sadly, history will continue to show that those in positions of great power, elected by various means as prudential stewards of peoples and their economies, continue to prove themselves nothing more than shepherd’s of illusion.
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Sunday, June 28, 2009
Global Stock Market Performance and P/E Ratio Valuations / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
Bespoke: Country P/E ratios “Yesterday we released a report taking a look at valuations, growth expectations, and stock market performance for more than 20 countries that have trackable ETFs. The report highlights which countries currently look the most and least attractive based on various characteristics. One simple data set highlighted was the current P/E ratios for these countries. Below is a chart showing these valuations.
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Sunday, June 28, 2009
Global Business Sentiment Improves Inline with Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
While investors’ hopes of an economic recovery might have got ahead of reality, the cartoonists continually reminded us of worrisome issues …
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Sunday, June 28, 2009
China Mega-trend Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update, SSEC Up 47% / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
Whilst many readers have benefited from my series of analysis on the stocks stealth bull market of the past 4 months on the western markets. However, back at the start of September 2008 I gave the first of a series of accumulating buy signals on a major world market which was for China at SSEC 2,000 or lower, which had followed a year of bearish analysis as of October 2007 at above SSEC 6,000 and therefore subsequently reflected up on accumulating into a meg-trend at less than 1/3rd the level of a year earlier.
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