Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, March 12, 2019
This Stock Market Pop Could Fizzle Fast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US stock market opened today with mixed opening prices. The crash of the Ethiopian Boeing passenger jet prompted selling in the Blue Chips, particularly in Boeing (BA). As of right now, the US stock markets have recovered quite well and have pushed higher.
We believe this upward rotation may be short-lived and want to highlight the two Engulfing Bearish candlestick patterns that have formed recently. The first, near the October 2018 highs, prompted a very deep price correction that ended on December 24, 2018. The more recent, completed just on March 8, 2019, is setting up resistance just above recent highs ($175.95) and is still a very valid sell signal for the QQQ. Unless the price is able to breach the $175.95 level over the next few weeks, this Engulfing Bearish candlestick pattern is technically the key pattern driving future expectations for the price.
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Monday, March 11, 2019
Phase 1 of Stock Market Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave? Too early to tell!
Intermediate trend – Initial rally has come to an end.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, March 11, 2019
Long Awaited Stock Market Pullback has Finally Arrived / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
It was a tough week for the U.S. stock market, with the S&P falling 5 days in a row. The S&P is finally starting to make a somewhat sizable pullback, although this pullback happened later than we expected. Most pullbacks are start at the 50% retracement level – this one started at the 78.6% level, which proves that the short term is always extremely hard to predict.
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Monday, March 11, 2019
US Presidential Cycle and the Stock Market - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Presidential cycle pattern has proved REMARKABLY ACCURATE in terms of flagging future stock market price action as an except from my last in depth look at stocks illustrates:
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Monday, March 11, 2019
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Nadeem_Walayat
ELLIOTT WAVES
Where elliott wave is concerned I like to keep things very simple which is why I don't adhere to the many tenants of elliott wave theory as for me, EW is just a another technical tool. Here's what my previous elliott wave interpretation which correctly expected a rally to Dow 27k into October 2018 that was virtually spot on.
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Monday, March 11, 2019
Chinese Economic Data Shakes the Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
March 8th, 2019 may gain some level of infamy over the next few decades. There were two big numbers released on this day, the current Chinese economic data and the US Jobs data for February 2019. Both numbers fell drastically lower than analysts expected and the global stock markets dropped in pre-market trading by more than 1%. Yet, something very interesting transpired through the trading day – a recovery rally.
The Chinese economic data was particularly devastating. It leads our researchers to ask a very critical question, “is this going to be an orderly contraction or is this contraction going to extend into more chaos?” Our research team believes the economic contraction in China will extend out into much of Asia and nations participating in the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) over the next 3~6+ months. We believe a natural progression of “protectionist processes” will begin to take place throughout many of these nations as the money spigot from China dries up. We believe this credit contraction and economic downturn will result in an extended repositioning of priorities, assets, and valuations throughout most of SE Asia and India. It could extend into certain areas in Europe and Arabic nations.
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Monday, March 11, 2019
Is the Stock Market Trend From December 2018 Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: WavePatternTraders
The recent price action we have seen this past week, potentially has the makings of a reversal in progress. Some world stock markets are showing an outside weekly bar reversal pattern, which is a strong pattern to support further weakness.Looking at a number of highly correlated markets, they are showing a very similar pattern. I favor an impulse wave (5 wave decline) is in progress, an up-down sequence is still needed to develop a 5 wave decline from their respective swing highs. If we can count 5 waves to end an impulse wave from last weeks high, a bounce thereafter in 3 waves would support a move lower and offer a selling opportunity.
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Monday, March 11, 2019
The Stock Market Has Called the Fed’s Bluff, What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed is truly in a panic.
Let’s take a big picture perspective of the last year or so.
Throughout 2018, the Fed claimed it could normalize policy (raise rates and shrink its balance sheet). Heck, the Fed didn’t just claim this, it was supremely confident of it.
Indeed, the Fed was still pushing this narrative as late as August, when most of the Emerging Market space and many economically sensitive asset classes had already collapsed 30%.
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Sunday, March 10, 2019
SPX Big US Stocks Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The widely-held mega-cap stocks that dominate the US markets recently finished reporting their Q4’18 financial results. Because the tenor of stock markets changed radically last quarter, this latest earnings season is more important than usual. An extreme monster bull market suddenly rolled over into a severe near-bear correction in Q4. How major corporations fared offers insights into whether a young bear is upon us.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.
While 10-Qs with filing deadlines of 40 days after quarter-ends are required for normal quarters, 10-K annual reports are instead mandated after quarters ending fiscal years. Most big companies logically run their accounting on calendar years, so they issue 10-Ks after Q4s. Since these annual reports are larger and must be audited by independent CPAs, their filing deadlines are extended to 60 days after quarter-ends.
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Saturday, March 09, 2019
Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yield Curve Inversion
An inverted yield curve is basically when the yield on 2 year US government bond exceeds the 10 year US bond yield as worried investors opt to disinvest from risky assets in favour of safer longer term government bonds thus driving down long bond yields below that of nearer term bonds. And the closer the yield curve gets towards towards an inversion the greater the likelihood for a future recession. So far the yield curve inversion has successfully forecast the last 3 economic downturns in the United States. Though the YCI has proved less reliable elsewhere, especially for Australia.
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Saturday, March 09, 2019
Various Stock Market Indicators are Plunging. Run for the Hills! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500 is pulling back from its 2800 resistance. Meanwhile, the latest readings for various widely publicized technical and fundamental indicators plunged. And right on cue, mainstream financial media broadcasted these indicators with a megaphone because hey, nothing sells like bad news. (Modern day finance is all about the marketing hype).
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Friday, March 08, 2019
QE4EVER Stock Market 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market soared has soared since the start of 2019, this despite President Trump shutting much of the US government down for 5 weeks accompanied by increasing global economic doom and gloom from a slowdown in China, to Germany teetering on the brink of recession a with Italy already having tipped into recession.
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Friday, March 08, 2019
Practical Prepping for Financial SHTF Scenarios / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Preppers – the sort of people who build bunkers, stockpile supplies, and bear arms – aim to survive “SHTF” scenarios.
When war breaks out, when the power grid goes down, when the banks fail, when the U.S. dollar collapses, when social unrest spreads, when the stuff hits the fan… will you be prepared?
Risks are rising.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists maintains a “Doomsday Clock.” For 2019, it “sets the Doomsday Clock at two minutes to midnight—the closest it has ever been to apocalypse.”
Friday, March 08, 2019
Stock Market Downward Reversal? Stocks Still Relatively Close to Their Recent Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Wednesday's trading session was bearish, as stocks retraced their Tuesday's advance. However, the market remained at its recent local lows. So is this a topping pattern or just a pause before another leg up?
The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.5-0.9% on Wednesday, retracing their Tuesday's advance, as investors took some short-term profits off the table. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% on Monday, before reversing its intraday advance and getting back below the 2,800 level. The market continued to fluctuate close to the previous medium-term local highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9% on Wednesday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,800-2,820, marked by the medium-term local highs. On the other hand, the support level is at around 2,765-2,770, marked by the recent local lows. The support level is also at the previous daily gap up of 2,757.90-2,760.24.
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Thursday, March 07, 2019
The Exponential Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Were now into the 11th year of this ageing stocks bull market for which my underlying message for its duration has been the same, one of "the greater the deviation from the bull market peak then the greater the buying opportunity presented".
Whilst all bull markets eventually come to an end. However, that end ALWAYS tends to prove temporary, soon appearing as inconsequential blips on the long-term trend chart as the overall inflationary stock market trend is exponential! Which is why the Great Stock Market crashes of the past such as 1929 and 1987 are barely visible blips today.
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Thursday, March 07, 2019
What Commodities and Transportation Stocks Telling Us - Part2 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In Part I of this report we talked about and showed you what commodities and transports where doing in relation to each other. Here in Part II, we show you in detail what we expect to take place.
This final chart highlights our Custom Smart Cash Index (in BLUE) as well as the CBOE Commodity Index pricing levels (in RED). This data goes all the way back to 2012 and highlights a number of key pricing rotations. First, we can see that Commodities have been decreasing in total value from 2012 till mid-2017. We can also identify a key support level that was established in the Commodities Index near the beginning of 2016 – coinciding just a month or so before the bottom in the Smart Cash Index.
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Thursday, March 07, 2019
Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
It’s been almost 10 years since this bull market began. What an incredible run. Despite all the doom-and-gloom news reports, this bull market has been impressive. (And no, it’s not because of “evil government manipulation”).
To put this into perspective, someone who bought at the top in 2007 would still have doubled their money (after including dividends reinvested).
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Wednesday, March 06, 2019
US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Presidential cycle pattern has proved REMARKABLY ACCURATE in terms of flagging future stock market price action as an except from my last in depth look at stocks illustrates:
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018
The basic pattern for the US Presidential cycle is for a strong election year and post election year, followed by weak Mid-term then a strong pre-election year.
The trend to date is clearly continuing to prove remarkably inline with the US presidential cycle. Which does not bode well for the remainder of the 2018 i.e. implies stocks are going to remain stuck in this trading range for the WHOLE of 2018! Which is one of the reasons why I was bearish for the prospects for the stock market at the start of the year.
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Wednesday, March 06, 2019
Stock Market’s Rally Slowing Down. Expect a Surge in Volatility? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market’s nonstop rally is slowing down, with the S&P 500 below its 10 day moving average for the first time in 41 days. The short-medium term outlook is mixed right now, with neither bulls nor bears having a strong edge (although there is a slight short term bearish lean). Meanwhile, there’s a >50% probability that volatility will spike in the next few weeks.
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Wednesday, March 06, 2019
Stock Market Beware The Ides Of March / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
While there is some religious significance in Roman culture, the Ides of March is best known as the date on which Julius Caesar was assassinated in 44 BC at a meeting of the Roman Senate.
At the time, a seer named Plutarch (some claim that the seer was named Spurinna) had warned that something would happen to Caesar by that date. For those that know their Shakespeare, on his way to the Theatre of Pompey, where he would be assassinated, Caesar supposedly passes the seer and joked “The Ideas of March are come,” implying that the prophecy had not been fulfilled, to which the seer replied “Aye, Caesar; but not gone.”
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