Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, February 25, 2013

The Fed Has Set Us Up For the Stock Market Crash of 2013 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Graham_Summers

Having pumped the system with liquidity non-stop since the Crash of 2008, the Fed now realizes it’s in big trouble and needs to manage down expectations of further stimulus.

As we noted earlier this year, the Fed, while attempting to appear committed to endless money printing via its QE 3 and QE 4 programs, was in fact decidedly split on whether to commit to more as well as the risks inherent to additional QE. Indeed, the Fed FOMC minutes indicate that some Fed members were concerned about whether QE even worked as a monetary policy.

Monday, February 25, 2013

Overpriced Assets Reaching Their Peak / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013

By: Andrew_McKillop

START WITH SOVEREIGN DEBT
Leading financial and economic statistics for major nations tell us all we need to know: zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/01/20130201_Macro.jpg

As a direct result there is no way QE or quantitative easing can end, despite anything that might have been said, implied or read into the minutes from the most recent 30 January meeting of the US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee. federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20130130a.htm

Monday, February 25, 2013

DOWNLOAD - Stocks Stealth Bull Market Ebook for 2013 and Beyond / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

The New 71 page Stocks Stealth Bull market Ebook for 2013 and Beyond is NOW available for FREE Download.

This ebook follows on from the 10th of February publication of the time critical analysis and concluding trend forecast for the DJIA stock index for 2013, which comprised approx 28% of the ebook's content (Part2) as illustrated by the contents list below.

Monday, February 25, 2013

Stock Market Calls it Quits... Short-term Top in Place, Gold Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the severe correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.

Intermediate trend - It is probable that the intermediate correction ended at 1398 and that a new uptrend is in progress which could carry a little further after a correction.

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Stock Market Uptrend Resumes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Tony_Caldaro

Market surprises with a volatile week. After hitting a new uptrend high on tuesday, the market sold off about 2% to a thursday low, before rallying to end the week. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.0%. Asian markets were -0.7%, European markets were -0.2%, and the DJ World index lost 0.5%. Economic reports for the week had a negative bias for the first time in many weeks. On the uptick: building permits, the PPI, leading indicators and the monetary base. On the downtick: the NAHB, housing starts, existing home sales, the Philly FED, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week we get a look at Q4 GDP, (est. +0.5%), personal income/spending, PCE and the ISM.

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Some Selling Off The Stock Market Top...More To Come?..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Sy_Harding

That's the big question. Was the two-day selloff all the bears will be able to get, or will it be the beginning of deeper selling to come as the index charts unwind further off the 70-RSI tests on both the daily and weekly charts. We will have our answers soon enough. Early next week should be telling about whether we gap over gap resistance or whether the gaps just above act as a wall, thus, starting the market down on the next leg of selling. From a purely technical perspective, it would make more sense to start the next leg down as the gap down was on heavy volume, and today's buying was on much lighter volume. Gaps are very tough to take back, especially on the first try, and with both the daily and weekly charts having reached overbought, it should be tougher to make a strong move back higher.

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Stock Market On The Precipice / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Jay_DeVincentis

Here's what to expect.

Before I get into today's article, I just wanted to give you a heads up on 2 things. First, I've been asked to speak at the world money show again - 3/25. This time I'll be doing it remotely, so I'll see if there's a way to get you access to the presentation either during or after the fact. Second, next week I'll be in the Dominican (my standard February vacation to get some tan back in my skin). Sometimes the technology gods favor us, and sometimes they don't. Either way, I'll do my best to continue the advice without interruption.

Friday, February 22, 2013

Stock Market Pop-n-Drop Possible / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

If you recall my Fibonacci analysis yesterday, I had expected to see a bounce to 1512.00 to 1515.00 before the decline resumes. The ES futures have stalled this morning precisely at the 38.2% retrace, which is the equivalent of 1511.66 in the cash market.

This morning is a “no news” morning as domestic events go. However, European news doesn’t look good, as Bankia posted the largest loss in Spanish Corporate history. In addition, Spain’s budget deficit grew from 8.9% to 10.2% despite the so-called austerity program.

Friday, February 22, 2013

Stock and Bond Market Shock Waves! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Robert_M_Williams

Yesterday around 2 pm EST a small tremor shook Wall Street. Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting released reveal that many Fed officials are worried about the costs and risks arising from the $85 billion–per–month asset-purchase program. And they all seem to have their own ideas on how to proceed. Several Fed officials said the central bank should be prepared to vary the pace of the asset-purchase plan depending on the outlook or how the program was working. One wanted to vary it on a meeting-by-meeting basis. One new idea backed by a “number” of Fed officials would have the central bank promising markets that it will take its time when selling its massive holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.

Friday, February 22, 2013

New Low Stock Market Volatility Could Mean It's Time to Sell / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Money_Morning

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: The average daily price volatility of stocks has fallen more than 60% since the beginning of 2013. It's the biggest straight-line drop in some 82 years.

A lot of investors are rejoicing. After all, stocks have risen an average of 17% a year when volatility is as low as it is right now, Bloomberg reports.

Friday, February 22, 2013

What This Tech Stock’s Saying About the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Profit_Confidential

We all know that corporate earnings are managed, but in a sense, it works, because an investor is better off having some ballpark earnings outlook over nothing. Earnings estimates for mature, large-cap businesses are typically more accurate over traditional growth companies, and you can use these estimates for your buy and sell decisions on the stock market.

One company that has a long history of providing decent guidance is Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ/ADP) out of Roseland, NJ. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is a payroll processing and human resources outsourcing firm that is actually considered a technology stock. The company belongs to the NASDAQ 100 index, and I view it as a great barometer on the stock market, investor sentiment, and employment.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Stock Market Healthy Pullback or THE END OF THE WORLD? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: PhilStockWorld

Wheeeeeee on oil!

Congrats to all who played that game with us as oil bottoms out BELOW $94 this morning (and still hasn't gotten back over the line).  We took 1/2 the money and ran on our doubled-down trades on USO and SCO but $92.50 may be bust for this drop so we'll hang in and see how low we can go this week.  Meanwhile, we got a short, sharp shock thanks to the Fed yesterday but it's perfect for the way we've been playing as we had a few short callers (GOOG, FAS, TSLA) that were getting away from us and Members were getting tired of my calling for patience as we've been waiting for this little correction for over a week now. 

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Stock Market Rally - There are limits to this Nonsense! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The SPX has developed yet another Broadening Top in the past week. It appears to be putting on the final touches today or tomorrow. It appears that the upper trendline of the latest Megaphone is at 1533 to 1535 tomorrow.

Based on my data so far, the Cycle Clock can pinpoint roughly half of the cycles within a day, while another 30-40% fall within 3-4 days. A small 10-12% fall within 9 days. I don’t have the data tabulated yet, but it seems to be working very well. Tomorrow is day 4 from the Cycle Date, so I will be watching the result along with the rest of you.

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Investors Scrambling for Returns in 2013 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2013

By: John_Mauldin

In this special edition of Outside the Box, World Money Analyst contributor Ankur Shah digs in his heels to help us all stay uphill from the slow-motion, jumbled landslide of bond yields and equity returns. Putting some solid analysis under our feet, he leads us onward and upward, dodging dislodged corporate-earnings boulders, relaying warnings shouted back by Head Sherpa Bill Gross, guiding us up the narrow but rock-solid ridge of dividend yields – and what’s that we see glimmering up there, through the swirling mists; can it be this mountain really is capped with gold? To the summit, then!

In all seriousness, Ankur gives us a somewhat technical analysis of the potential for future stock-market returns. This makes a great companion piece to the work Ed Easterling and I did a few weeks back on secular bear markets. In short, the data are not consistent with the beginning of a new secular bull market. Returns are likely to be muted over the next few years.

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

It's Not Too Late to Japanese Stocks for 2013 / Stock-Markets / Japanese Stock Market

By: DailyWealth

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: In November, I told you to buy Japanese stocks...

I said they were cheap, ignored, and in a new uptrend. "With these three things in place," I wrote at the time, "we have everything we look for in an investment."

Since then, we've seen a HUGE move in the Japanese stock market. It's up 30% in just three months!

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

G20 Tuesday – Nothing Ventured, Nothing Accomplished / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: PhilStockWorld

OK, cheating a bit here.

I started this article on Friday and we were reviewing Anthony Mirhaydari's list as it's an excellent jumping-off point for contemplating the current market situation. I ran out of time on Friday, as I hadn't intended to get into such a major topic at first, so we're going to finish the list off this morning and discuss on this market holiday below (also, there was lots of good stuff in weekend Member Chat – see the end of Friday's comments):

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Capex Set to Fuel a 5-Year Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Money_Morning

David Zeiler writes: A rising tide of capital expenditure (capex) spending by U.S. companies will drive a stock market rally that could last as long as five years, BMO Capital Markets Chief Investment Strategist Brian Belski says.

In a message delivered to several news outlets, Belski argued that U.S. companies will soon start using their increasing cash piles to invest in their own businesses. He sees it as the next logical progression for companies with strong balance sheets.

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Stock Market Looks Like Forming a Double Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Andre_Gratian

Current position of the market

SPX: Very Long-term trend – The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014.  It is probable, however, that the severe correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.

Intermediate trend –  It is probable that  the intermediate correction ended at 1398 and that a new uptrend is in progress which could carry a little further after a correction.

Monday, February 18, 2013

U.S. Stock Markets Uptrend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: Tony_Caldaro

While the US equity market made new uptrend highs this week, it did not do much to excite bulls nor bears. The entire range for the week was SPX 1514-1525. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.25%. On the international front. Asia gained 0.8%, Europe gained 0.3%, and the DJ World index was -0.1%. Economic reports continue to come in on positive. On the uptick: retail sales, export/import prices, business inventories, the NY FED, capacity utilization, consumer sentiment, investor sentiment, plus the budget deficit turned surplus, and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: industrial production, the WLEI and the M1 – multiplier. Next week we get reports on housing, leading indicators and the FOMC minutes. Best to your week!

Monday, February 18, 2013

Calling All Stock Market Bears / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013

By: WavePatternTraders

It’s been a few weeks since my last report so I thought I would update the ideas we have been working and what I think it’s potentially setting up going forward.

US markets

Although we have seen some great price action in other markets, the US markets have remained in a small range, and we still are waiting for a strong break, or a resolution to our current ideas I suggested to members that we go looking for other ideas.