Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, August 28, 2016
Post Yellen = Market Confusion / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
Yellen seems to me to be mastering the art of saying things so that everyone can come away hearing what they wanted to hear.
For those concerned about the Fed leaving interest rates too low for too long, she adopted a hawkish view on the economy, particularly when it comes to the payrolls. For those thinking that any Fed rate hike would send the Dollar soaring, pressuring Emerging Markets as well as equity markets both here domestically and elsewhere, she sounded the theme of interest rates remaining low for a long time. Thus, if the Fed were to hike sooner rather than later, no need to worry because it would not signal the beginning of a rapid series of rate hikes.
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Sunday, August 28, 2016
Stocks, the Era of Centralization is Ending… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The most critical element of the BREXIT is that it is THE closing bell being rung on the period of Centralization from 2009 to today.
What do I meant by Centralization? I am referring to the era of Central Planning of the global economy by Central Banks.
In the US, we’ve seen the Federal Government/ Federal Reserve become involved in virtually every major industry in the economy including insurance, healthcare, housing/mortgages, banking, financial services, and even energy.
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Sunday, August 28, 2016
Janet Yellen At Jackson Hole / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
The equity markets are bouncing along support on the lower bound as they wait to hear what Chairman Yellen has to say about the Fed's perspective tomorrow and what else is said over the next few days at Jackson Hole.
As for gold and silver, they went down in honor of the option expiration on the Comex for the most part this week, and today is just the anti-climax.
Traders claim to be 'confused' about what the Fed is up to. So for their benefit and yours, here is a brief cheatsheet.
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Saturday, August 27, 2016
SPX Downtrend Should be Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The market started the week at SPX 2184. After a decline to SPX 2176 on Monday the market rallied to 2193. A pullback followed to SPX 2170 on Thursday, then a gap up opening on Friday, rally to 2188, selloff to 2160, then ended the week at 2169. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.40%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: existing home sales, Q2 GDP, consumer sentiment, and the Q3 GDP estimate. On the uptick: new home sales, the FHFA, durable goods orders, plus weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by monthly payrolls, ISM and the PCE. Best to your week!
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Saturday, August 27, 2016
Yellen Plays Both Sides Again... Stock Market Doesn't Trust Her.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The market had spent weeks ahead of the Jackson Hole, Wyoming speech by fed Yellen before making any type of move that included some volatility and a try higher with some force. The thinking was different depending on who you asked. Some thought she'd simply say nothing other than the usual, which was she'll raise when it's appropriate meaning she's looking at the data that comes in from report to report. Others thought she'd definitely talk about raising rates in September. That she'd give a definitive date and then we'd see how the market responds. She played the middle ground. She's very good at being vague. She said that employment is full, and that things are better and that rate hike is coming. We already know one is coming Ms. Yellen. But when? She didn't say. Same old. She'll see. When she feels like it she will.
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Saturday, August 27, 2016
Stock Market - All Is Calm, All Is Not Right / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
With every passing year since 2008, support for the idea of free markets and open competition without constant intervention by central banks has been declining. The idea of trust your central banker to always “assist” the markets has lead the public at large into the false illusion that stocks can always be engineered to return to all time highs in the US, even if just reaching these levels recently.
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Friday, August 26, 2016
How Extreme Oversold Markets Can Be Profitable / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The trading week was starting to look as though it was going to end without any excitement. Wow, did that ever change on Friday!
On Wednesday Aug 24th, the stock market sold off to a level which I consider to be an extreme oversold condition for the week. While I do have several criteria as to why and how I come to the conclusion, the chart and indicator below show me when the market is oversold and ready for a bounce.
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Friday, August 26, 2016
Stock Market Slightly Down Day with Positive Technicals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The stock market indices had an interesting, topsy-turvy day. They came down at the opening, rallied back to resistance, but both indices were unable to get through, and then they rolled over in a 5-wave decline to retest the lows, only to bounce in the last half hour. It was a negative close, but with positive technicals.
Net on the day, the Dow was down 33.07 at 18,448.41. The S&P 500 was down 2.97 at 2172.47. The Nasdaq 100 was down 8.06 at 4775.43.
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Friday, August 26, 2016
Stock Market Is Crazy and Crazy Means Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The SPX has completed its’ “Broadening Topping Pattern”
…the next trend is DOWNWARDS!
The current pattern is suggesting that a significant top is at hand. I fully believe both in patterns and indicators and right now the current pattern is suggesting that a significant top is at hand.
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Thursday, August 25, 2016
New Stock Market Downtrend Or Just More Consolidation Before Another Leg Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is now neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Thursday, August 25, 2016
Can Stocks Survive Without Stimulus? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
A fiery debate rages among investors over the question of central bank stimulus. The question is whether the stock market needs stimulus in order to advance, and is stimulus only creating a bubble which will burst at some point and lead to depression?
Regardless of the philosophical rectitude of central bank intervention, there can be no denying its efficacy. The most fundamental truth of the financial market is that “liquidity, liquidity, liquidity” is the market’s lifeblood. Financial stimulus contains the seeds of recovery and will cure any bear market in equities, as I’ll attempt to prove in this commentary. The truth of this assertion can be found in the very wisdom of King Solomon, who in the book of Ecclesiastes wrote that “money answers all things.” Stocks will always, without exception, respond positively to stimulus – provide there are no countervailing obstacles in the way [e.g. tax increases, margin requirements].
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Thursday, August 25, 2016
A Zombie Financial System, Black Swans and a Gold Share Correction / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016
Bob Moriarty of 321Gold says that since the crash of 2008, the financial system has become a zombie, and he urges investors to pay attention to when they take some money off the table.
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Thursday, August 25, 2016
The World’s Monetary System Is Broken & Costing Overseas Business / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
Low and negative yields mean that no one has the confidence to invest in real capital projects. Investors would much rather lose money over a 10-year horizon than invest in building dams, repairing pipes, creating better grids, starting new businesses, etc. A new monetary order must replace the existing one, and as soon as possible. It will likely be one that China is determined to dominate this time around.
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Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Stock Market Sloppy Pullback Day, but Still a Positive Close / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The stock market indices had an up day, but they closed near the low end of the range, and the S&P 500 closed at the low for the day. It was such a strong gap up in the morning that it ended profitable on the session, but wasn’t a good close.
The day started out with a big gap up, they ran up to test the old, 52-week highs and all-time highs on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, but fell short of both, and sold off until midday when they bounced. They were unable to do anything, and sold off again, finishing near the lows for the day, but, still, it was an up day.
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Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Are Central Banks Secretly Preparing For Another Financial Crisis? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016
A major crisis warning signal just hit.
It concerns “behind the scenes” liquidity for Central banks.
Here’s how it works.
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Tuesday, August 23, 2016
Why is This Hated Stock Market so Resilient? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Do not let yourself be tainted with a barren skepticism.Louis Pasteur
The market has resisted all attempts to correct. We know why it is not crashing; this has to do with mass psychology, but what’s preventing it from letting out a significant dose of steam. The table below might hold the answer. We looked at all 30 components of the Dow monthly timelines utilising our indicators, and the results were quite surprising, to say the least. On the monthly charts, each bar represents one month’s worth of data so these are long-term charts, and they usually provide a much clearer picture of what the futures holds as opposed to the shorter term charts.
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Tuesday, August 23, 2016
Stock Market Top - Fasten your Seatbelts! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Last week we asked the question 'Is the Dow headed into the final top at point 23 - or is it engaged in the typical 3-5 wave correction seen most of the time at this point in the pattern?' With last week's new high in the Dow it seems safe to assume that the 3-5 wave correction found between points 21 and 23 in every Three Peaks/Domed House pattern since 1901 (save 4 instances) has been skipped for a 5th time.
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Tuesday, August 23, 2016
How to Spot an Oversold Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
All traders have found their own mix of technical analysis indicators and price action which they feel provides them with a good feel for when the stock market is oversold and overbought. Let’s face it, as traders, we see the market is a different way and its limitless as to how we can trade each and every situation.
Here I would like to share with you a couple of my tools and tricks for timing short term stock market bottoms. Over the years I have refined my analysis to just a handful of tools and analysis that work consistently for me. I have also learned that I trade and analyze the markets best if I don’t read other people’s opinions and analysis as it has a way of altering my thinking and thus I start to second guess where the market is headed.
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Tuesday, August 23, 2016
Stock Market Flat Session..... Still NO Blast Off... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
There is really almost nothing to say with this market these days. Lower volatility is keeping things under wrap while the market tries hard to unwind but the problem is the flat market really isn't allowing for too much unwinding. The market is having a lot of trouble blasting out, and the main culprit is likely coming from sentiment, which is getting to very bearish levels in the real world and possibly even in the fed world. To give no respect to increasing froth is a dangerous thing to do. The bulls are feeling invincible, and that can be the kiss of death. That said, the bears keep on letting the bulls stay in the game. Unable to bring price down consistently.
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Monday, August 22, 2016
Stocks Remain Close To Record Highs - Top Or Just Pause Before Another Leg Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is now neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
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