Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, May 28, 2021
Eerily Serene Risk off Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 had a mixed day, and the credit market underlines the shift to risk-off. Halfway shift, to be precise – the high yield corporate bonds recovered the intraday downside but value sold off all the way to the closing bell. Well, rising yields used to add to tech‘s problems since mid Feb, and retreating yields don‘t breathe enough life into the sector now. It‘s clearly visible that the high beta segments are facing the yields‘ headwinds while $NYFANG is in the black, but more than a little lagging.
The Treasury market reprieve I announced on May 18 to last more than a good few weeks, is here. While it works to lift tech and hamper value, the days of value doing fine are far from over as the VTV:QQQ ratio illustrates:
(…) We‘re still in the value outperforming growth environment (reflation and reopening themes), it‘s just right now (last few days) that tech is pulling stronger ahead than value. ... Value‘s reaction to the yields trajectory ahead would be telling, and I have no doubts there is quite some more juice left in the long value trade (and that the Russell 2000 isn‘t rolling over to the downside here).
Emerging markets are welcoming the dollar woes and yields reprieve, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t too much of a drag either. VIX refused further downside yesterday, and is hedging off bets as much as the option players do – no change in prior trends here, just a move away from the complacent end of the spectrum. The stock bull run is still about dips being bought.
Friday, May 28, 2021
Stock Market Cycles Tipping From Euphoria To Complacency – Gold Setting Up For Rally Above $2000 Again? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Gold has set up a very strong confluence pattern across multiple foreign currencies recently. This upside confluence pattern suggests that Gold has now moved into a much stronger bullish price phase compared to various currency pairs. This upside move in precious metals aligns very well with my broad market cycle phase research. I urge traders/investors to start paying attention as we transition into this new longer-term cycle phase.
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Friday, May 28, 2021
Inflation Cools (For Now) Stagflation Awaits / Stock-Markets / Stagflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
To maintain the inflation, a cooling of inflation was needed
That is one of those Alice in Wonderland-like statements, like the one I’ve got tattooed on my left forearm: “Contrary-wise, what is it wouldn’t be and what it wouldn’t be it would, you see?”
To maintain inflationary policy, as per various talking Fed (egg) heads, the hysterical run up in inflationary expectations and fears had to be tamped down. And so, Google users have indeed eased their neuroses right along with a recent tamping of inflationary hysteria.
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Wednesday, May 26, 2021
FREE Report - This Stock Strategy beat the market by 220% / Stock-Markets / Investing 2021
By: Submissions
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Monday, May 24, 2021
Stock Market New Uptrend Starting? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends. A move past 4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: Phase three (wave 5 rom 3723) is now likely underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
Sunday, May 23, 2021
Crypto, Stock Markets Rising from the Ashes / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 caught a partial bid yesterday, enough to stave off the break of prior Wednesday‘s lows. All isn‘t fine under the surface though as yet another Fed trial baloon emerges – this time, talking about talking taper, doing predictable wonders for the dollar. As I have stated, it‘s when the Fed would really move that the greenback would go up again. The important word here is „really“ - this doesn‘t qualify yet, but the noises can‘t be ignored.
That‘s taking me to the partial bid mention as it shows in the S&P 500 sectoral action – tech rises and value continues trembling. The Russell 2000 keeps lagging while emerging markets seem to still doubt the Fed‘s seriousness. But the VIX daily move is positive as the daily spike has been clearly rejected – another, this time a smaller and pickier algo repositioning at work. At the same time, option players got positioned for another shoe to drop, tying in well with their moves overall since late Feb.
Inflationary fears aren‘t by any means quelled just yet – Treasuries disregarded yesterday‘s retreat in inflation expectations. The Fed approach needs a refresher:
Sunday, May 23, 2021
True or False: Inflation = Stock Market Sell-off? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Before you answer, recognize that the "market has a law of its own"
The topic of inflation has been grabbing a lot of financial headlines.
Indeed, financial journalists have "blamed" inflation for recent stock market sell-offs.
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Saturday, May 22, 2021
What Investors and Traders Should Be Doing About the Stock Market’s Strange Behavior / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
Today, I’m going to answer a question that’s likely on your mind. It’s about the stock market’s recent strange behavior and the one thing ALL investors and traders should be doing about it.You see, one of the very first stocks I ever recommended just reported phenomenal earnings. Sales jumped 37%. The company acquired a record number of customers, and it forecasts great sales again next quarter. What do you think happened to the stock price? We’ll come back to this in a moment.
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Thursday, May 20, 2021
Credit Market Wheels in Danger of Coming Off? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
SPX backing and filling worthy of Monday‘s session – with important rotations below the surface. Namely, tech and Nasdaq underwent daily consolidation on long-dated Treasuries retreating a little. Key point though was rejection of the intraday downside, making the S&P 500 pendulum likelier to swing this week again bullish. The VIX spike was rejected while option traders didn‘t give up much of their bearish resolve, which doesn‘t spoil the bullish picture though.
Stock trading yesterday was accompanied by the bond markets moving down. Such a non-confirmation is encouraging in its implications, as the markets are still taking seriously the transitory inflation messaging in light of the less alarming nature of Thursday‘s PPI. Seems like we‘re in for a few relatively stable weeks of Treasury yields undeperforming inflation expectations before the yield climb returns:
(…) The transitory inflation story got modestly supported, but while I think that the red hot CPI inflation would die down a little (i.e. not keep rising ever as steeply as was the case with Wednesday‘s data) once the year on year base to compare it against normalizes, a permanently elevated plateau of high and rising inflation would be a reality for more than foreseeable future simply because the Fed would be as behind as Arthur Burns was in fighting the 1970s inflation, and upward price pressures in the job market pressures would kick in.
Wednesday, May 19, 2021
Stock Market Same Old Song and Dance – Almost / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Pendulum keeps swinging back into the S&P 500 bullish camp, as the Nasdaq rebound was mightily aided by rising long-dated Treasuries while value couldn‘t care less about their direction. Just as sharply the VIX rose, that steeply it retreated over the past two days, hinting that stocks are returning back to the old normal, which means about to go upwards. Option traders didn‘t agree that profoundly, but they aren‘t sending a trustworthy warning sign.
I care more about corporate bond markets returning to life, and the retreating yields once the less alarming nature of Thursday‘s PPI has been digested. The transitory inflation story got modestly supported, but while I think that the red hot CPI inflation would die down a little (i.e. not keep rising ever as steeply as was the case with Wednesday‘s data) once the year on year base to compare it against normalizes, a permanently elevated plateau of high and rising inflation would be a reality for more than foreseeable future simply because the Fed would be as behind as Arthur Burns was in fighting the 1970s inflation, and upward price pressures in the job market pressures would kick in.
Given though the mammoth scale of money printing and fiscal injections that surely has the bond vigilantes rolling in their graves, it‘s miraculous that the bond markets aren‘t revolting more, much more. Okay, you may look at it as that the 10-year Treasury yield has more than tripled since August, but the low base (0.5% rate) is distorting the view. Plenty of room still before financial repression enters stage right even more noticeably (we are nowhere near the panic yield levels causing genuine hardship for the S&P 500), but we have time – I am looking for a reprieve in the Treasuries markets, which would help especially the tech sector recovery.
Tuesday, May 18, 2021
Are Apple, Tesla, and Bitcoin Entering Market Technical Excess Top Phase? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this research series, I highlighted the broad market cycles and what technical analysts call the “Excess Phase Top” process, which usually takes place after the market’s peak and set up a downward price trend. There are a number of technical setups that take place throughout this process. Today, I will be exploring the charts of Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), and Bitcoin (BTC) to see where they are in the process.
The suggestion I am making by highlighting these market trends and setups is that a Cash Position is a viable allocation of capital away from risks and losses. Many traders don’t view a cash position as a properly allocated use of capital. We believe taking a cash position at the right times can and does provide very clear benefits, including:
- Eliminating risks of further losses/drawdowns.
- Setting up a process of protecting cash and waiting for a confirmed re-entry trigger.
- Avoiding the failure of buying into a declining market – which is one of the biggest faults of active traders.
- Using the Cash position as a hedge against shifting currency/market valuations.
Remember, in many cases, broad market downtrends are often associated with bigger trends in currencies and global market sectors. Chasing these trends can lead to further risks if you are not careful and skilled in your trading decisions. Keeping your capital in a Cash Allocation/Position is often the easiest and safest way for you to ride out volatile downside price trends and allows you to re-deploy your cash into new trades when the time is right.
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Monday, May 17, 2021
Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Sometimes there are very clear advantages to being in an all-cash position and avoiding the risks in the US/Global markets. For example, you should consider cash as a position when the markets begin to execute a broad market consolidation pattern that often results in many weeks or months of sideways, choppy price activity. You should also consider going to cash when a bigger shift in market trends takes place, putting your account at real risk should there be a 20% to 30%+ downside price trend setting up. Moving your assets away from these risks and into cash as early as possible can save thousands of dollars in unwanted – and worse yet totally avoidable – losses.
I know the rules of the game, and how everyone always says “it is better to ride out the trends and buy into the dips in the long run”. Well, we believe there is a better way to approach these bigger market trends that do not include riding out massive downside price trends – watching our wealth melt away as the markets collapse. We believe the purpose of actively managing your investments/trades should include a “cash position” as an active instrument in your portfolio. Why? Because moving your assets away from risks and into a cash position can often create a major advantage for all types of investors. We will get into more detail about this later.
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Sunday, May 16, 2021
Is Stock Market Selling Madness About Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
The inflation scare amplified by CPI data has died down yesterday a little. Buying returned into the S&P 500, lifting Nasdaq ever so little too. VIX steeply rejected moving higher, and looks ready to decline today, but the put/call ratio doesn‘t share the optimism as obviously the bearish scenarios, powered by the inflation scare forcing a deflationary outcome in an overleveraged financial system is emboldened by the downfall‘s steepness since Monday and ineffective attempts to coutner it on Tuesday. While one swallow doesn‘t make a summer, the technical picture in the hardest hit tech is gradually improving, worthy of benefit of the doubt while you dance close to the Nasdaq exit door.
Credit markets have crucially improved, with the junk corporate bonds leading the way, and value stocks being soundly bought again. All it took was a decent daily stabilization in long-dated Treasuries coupled with an intraday upswing attempt – no issue that it fizzled out before the close, apparently. The markets are coming to terms with higher inflation, and the commodities hit starting with lumber, stretching to copper, and eventually also oil and soybeans yesterday, would likely recover – first those that hadn‘t been all that overheated.
Sunday, May 16, 2021
Wall Street Roiled by Hot Inflation Data: Is This REALLY “Transitory”? / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
The Labor Department reported yesterday that the Consumer Price Index jumped 4.2% from the prior year. Although a big rise in the CPI had been expected, the actual number came in even higher than economists had forecast.
According to the CPI data, inflation in April accelerated at its fastest pace in more than 12 years. Higher prices showed up everything from used cars to lumber to energy to food.
If April’s rate of price increases were to persist for another 11 months, the annual CPI growth rate would be 10.3%. And that wouldn’t even account for items that the CPI excludes or understates.
Jerome Powell and other Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly insisted than any rise in inflation this year will be “transitory.” They cite base effects from last year’s economic lockdown and supply bottlenecks they expect to be temporary.
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Thursday, May 13, 2021
Stock Market Bulls Getting Caught in the Whirlwind / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Seemingly uneventful and tight range day in S&P 500 gave way to extraordinary selling once the 4,220 intraday support broke – extraordinary by recent standards. The bulls obviously have quite some damage to repair before thinking about taking on new highs. Prices have moved back into the prolonged consolidation, in what isn‘t a true breakdown though yet.
Neither the smallcaps, nor the emerging markets, let alone S&P 500 fell on sharply rising volume, which speaks in favor of a bad day, chiefly driven by tech (yes, I‘m looking at you, $NYFANG) and weak credit markets. Look at market breadth – new highs new lows stunningly rose yesterday in spite of the 500-strong index losing quite a few dozen points.
Classic risk off positioning, if only the defensives as a group did a lot better – but it could have been worse had commodities joined in the melee. They didn‘t, and they are thus the dog that didn‘t bark, detracting credibility from yesterday‘s stock market plunge (unless they catch up next, that is).
Both copper and lumber reversed, but won‘t this turn out as another buying opportunity, especially in copper? Little has changed in the reflationary and reopening trades – financials managed to shake off the rising yields easily yesterday. True, VIX and put/call ratio aren‘t painting a picture of calmness, but especially the option traders are positioned a bit too bearishly at the moment. Again, it‘s a question of how long before the tech bottom hunters step in. Make no mistake though, growth is going to keep lagging behind value.
Gold, silver and miners are in a vulnerable position even though neither the technical nor fundamental reasons behind their rally changed. The rising yields are a testament of rotation out of stocks into bonds not having worked yesterday, and should commodities such as copper get hurt again, precious metals would land in hot water likely. Thus far though, no sign thereof – the momentum remains with the bulls overall, and higher time frames confirm that.
Wednesday, May 12, 2021
TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is now entering my forecast window for a significant correction which should present an opportunity to accumulate into most the AI mega-trend stocks many of which have galloped ahead to new all time highs this year, trending in the opposite direction to the much higher risk stocks such as those that heavily populate the media blitzkrieging Cathy Wood's ARK funds i.e. their biggest holding Tesla is down 4.5% year to date whilst AI numero Uno Google is up 32%! Which this analysis seeks to resolve in high probability buying levels in advance of an expected correction during May.
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Wednesday, May 12, 2021
Stock Market Extending Phase Two? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: Phase two from 3853 does not look complete.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Tuesday, May 11, 2021
Stock Market Enters Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast Time Window / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is now moving into my forecast time window for a correction to begin of approx 10% decline as illustrated by my trend forecast graph.
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Tuesday, May 11, 2021
Cathy Wood Bubble Bursts as ARK Funds CRASH! Enter into a Severe Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst the Dow has been trading at NEW all time highs, supreme media high risk stocks pumper's ARK funds have entered into a severe bear market as ARK bubble finally bursts. Those invested in ARK funds are in for a more pain over the coming weeks and months as reality catches up with the fantasy valuations that the Cathy brigade had lifted the likes of Tesla to.
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Monday, May 10, 2021
Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is now moving into my forecast time window for a correction to begin of approx 10% decline as illustrated by my trend forecast graph-
9th Feb 2021 Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021
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