Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Gold and Silver Crushed by Unwinding US Dollar Shorts / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Shedlock
What's happening with gold should be no real surprise. Although I have stated many times that gold is money and gold should do well in deflation, and we are in deflation (see The Future Is Frugality and Implications of the Slowing Global Economy for the deflation case), in the initial stages of deflation, leverage in everything is reduced by force. There are thousands of hedge funds, pension plans, and individuals over-leveraged in a massive bet against the US dollar and US assets in general. Many themes of the past 7 years are now being unwound. And one would expect leverage to be forced out in deflation as credit simply dries up. I call this the great unwind.
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Saturday, August 16, 2008
US Dollar Seismic Shift Hits Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Christopher_Laird
A month or so ago, we told subscribers that the USD appeared to be bottoming. Long term, the USD has big trouble on the horizon, but we mentioned the USD has 9 lives, even though the US is running terrible deficits, trade and fiscal.
The Euro had strengthened so much since 2002, and the USD took such a hit, that gold and commodities became hot sectors that attracted lots of money for years. Right now, we are witnessing a big chunk of that speculator/investor froth coming out of gold and commodities. Oil is still relatively resistant. The perception that the USD can recover in a meaningful way is now out.
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Saturday, August 16, 2008
Review: Profit from the Peak Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: David_Shvartsman
Are we nearing the end of the Oil Age? Is the end of a cheap fossil fuel era at hand? How will we make the transition from a world dependent on hydrocarbon energy to one powered by a mix of hydrocarbons and renewable energy, and can we profit from this coming shift?
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Friday, August 15, 2008
Gold Approaching Short-term Low / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The hourly pattern argues that in and around the 77.00 area, the downleg in the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) from its 7/15 high "achieved" the look of completion. If that is the case, then in the hours directly ahead the GLD should reverse sharply, fill today's gap-down open at 79.20, and close above the top of the gap to signal that a very significant near-term low has been established. Beyond the gap, the GLD must hurlde and sustain 82.00 to confirm a more substantial upside reversal.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 15, 2008
Crude Oil Demand Destruction Overdone? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andy_Sutton
Much ado has been made of ‘demand destruction', an economic term that refers to declining demand for a good due to high prices. The past month or so the mainstream US press has latched onto demand destruction as a reason for the decline in oil prices much in the same way they blamed speculators for high oil prices just a few weeks earlier.
Also, when talking about demand destruction, they will refer to US numbers only; conveniently forgetting the rest of the world. The mindset here is still that the US is the top dog and the rest of the globe is irrelevant. So let's indulge them in their narrow-mindedness for a minute and look only at US consumption as presented by the Energy Information Administration.
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Friday, August 15, 2008
Epic Gold Stocks Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Zeal_LLC
The precious-metals stocks did not take kindly to gold's steep selloff this week. On Monday the flagship HUI gold-stock index plunged 6.0% at the climax of what can only be described as a crash. In this event's final 3 days, the HUI bled 13.1% of its value. In less than a month, it had plummeted 33.1% by the time the dust settled!
Although the HUI has a well-deserved reputation for extreme volatility, this selloff was still exceptional. Typically, sharp HUI declines emerge after major uplegs from high levels. But as you'll see in these charts, the HUI wasn't high technically when this heavy selling started battering it as August dawned. In fact it was already pretty beaten-up pre-crash , under both its summer support and 200-day moving average.
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Friday, August 15, 2008
Precious Metals Bloodbath as Gold Crashes through $800 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Both gold and silver gave back the previous day's gains yesterday on the COMEX. Gold finished trading in New York on Friday at $808.30, down $17.20 and silver was down 58 cents to $14.23. Gold continued to fall in Asian and early European trading and is trading at $782.80/783.40 per ounce (1100 GMT).Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 15, 2008
Gold Collapses as Speculators Panic / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD sank yet again at the London opening on Friday, falling 2.6% to touch a nine-month low as US crude oil prices dropped 1.3% to trade below $114 per barrel.
Western European stock prices rose meantime in early trade, averaging 0.8% gains despite this week's clear signals of economic recession ahead.
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Thursday, August 14, 2008
DIG Proshares Ultra Long Gas & Oil ETF Carving Out New Trading Range / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The natural gas inventory data did not have much of an impact on the ProShares Ultra Long Oil & Gas ETF (AMEX: DIG), which appears to be carving out a new trading range between 84.00 and 80.50, after emerging yesterday from a lower trading range between 76.00 and 80.00. The higher range represents the next phase of the basing attempt that has been in progress for the past week. A sustained hurdle of 84.50/70 is needed to trigger additional upside potential off of the base into the 89.00-90.00 target zone. Conversely, a breach of 80.50/00 near-term support will begin to compromise the efficacy of the developing base pattern.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 14, 2008
British Gold Sovereigns -The Preserve of Collectors, Savers and Smart Investors / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold as Essential Diversification and Financial Insurance Gold bullion remains an essential diversification and essential financial insurance to have in all properly diversified portfolios. Besides the ever more important factors of inflation hedging and financial insurance, gold is likely to continue to outperform other asset classes and to provide significant returns to gold buyers.
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Thursday, August 14, 2008
Gold Bounces as Euro-zone Slumps towards Recession / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
THE SPOT PRICE OF PHYSICAL GOLD added to Wednesday's sharp bounce early in Asia and London Thursday morning, nearing the Wall Street open almost 4.4% above the week's low at $836 per ounce.Crude oil traded back above $116 per barrel – up more than $3 from its three-month lows of Tuesday – while base metals also rose sharply.
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Thursday, August 14, 2008
Gold Fell Sharply in Dollars but not in Euros and Pounds / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York on Friday at $825.50, up $15.80 and silver was up 37 cents to $14.81. Gold continued to rise in Asian and early European trading and is trading at $831.80/832.40 per ounce (1200 GMT).The much anticipated bounce in gold occurred yesterday and continued overnight as the dollar weakened and oil prices firmed again.
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Thursday, August 14, 2008
Precious Metals Stocks on Major Buy Alert / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Clive_Maund
If you take a stroll around the financial district of any big city such as London, New York or Tokyo, you will walk past countless well dressed and groomed men, in smart suits and ties with tidily coiffured hair and neatly clipped nails, and if you listen to their conversations you will observe that many of them speak softly in measured tones. The image conveyed is one of poise and professionalism. Yet beneath the veneer of civility and reasonableness there frequently lurks a seething cauldron of greed, lust - and fear, a fact which many women are instinctively aware of and which business women are able to turn to their advantage. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Crude Oil Spike Fails to Break Above Resistance / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Very interesting situation developing in nearby crude. Let's notice that the post DOE data spike propelled prices to $115.69 (so far), which hurdled the August resistance line at $114.80, benefiting our earlier ProShares Ultra-Long Oil & Gas ETF (AMEX: DIG) position. But it failed to hurdle the prior rally peak at $115.95 established yesterday.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Strong US Dollar Drives Gold Lower / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES gave back all of a 1.5% rally late-morning in London on Wednesday, dropping below $815 per ounce in thin but frantic trade as the US Dollar continued to rally against pretty much everything.Crude oil ticked back above $113 per barrel – down almost 25% from its top of early July ahead of today's much-anticipated US inventory stockpiles report – while base metals continued to slide.
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Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Gold Oversold at Seasonal Lows / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York on Friday at $809.70, down $11.80 and silver was down 3 cents to $14.44. Gold rose in Asian and early European trading and is trading at $821.10/821.60 per ounce (1000 GMT). Gold's recent merciless sell off continued yesterday. But, the dollar's incredible five day surge appeared to come to an end yesterday, with a sell off on Wall Street (on concerns about financials and slowing global growth) stopping it in its tracks.
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Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Gold Extremely Oversold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
In most recent Trading Thoughts we reported that the largest purchases of U.S. government debt by foreign official institutions had occurred in the prior week. Initially, reason for those purchases was a mystery. That is, until Russia decided to crush Georgia militarily. Russian army does not move into invasion mode without some prior preparations. Someone knew what was to happen. Massive amount of money flowed, at a $1.4+ trillion annual rate, into U.S. debt in less than a week.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Gold Trying to Make a Bottom / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Michael_Swanson
After falling 40 dollars Monday morning and dragging the HUI down 20 points there are some short-term technical signs that gold may be near a bottom of some sorts. First gold finally fell down hard one morning to start to catch up with the steep drop we have seen in gold stocks. Gold also fell down to its 65-week moving average, which has been its long-term support level for the past six years. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Gold Hit by Massive Wave of Stoploss Selling for Record Plunge / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York on Friday at $821.50, down $36.00 and silver was down 71 cents to $14.48. Gold continued to fall in Asian and early European trading and is trading at $809.00/809.60 per ounce (1100 GMT).Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Gold Bull Market Correction Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Alistair_Gilbert
Captain Ron has presented his well-reasoned case for Gold for the Bulls today and whilst our long-term viewpoint is the same, I believe that this correction is not over in either TIME or PRICE yet. But correction it is, NOT the end of the Bull market.
In order to determine where we are in the short-term wave count we have to stand back and look at the long-term wave count. Last week I presented the quarterly charts on a number of commodities that to me show quite clearly where we are. Below I show the quarterly DELTA chart on Gold and this time I have put my wave counts on the chart.
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