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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

During the bull market years between 2000 and 2011 the US dollar and currencies played a key role in the PM complex bull market. Tonight I would like to go back and visit some of these old charts and see how they pertain to our current bull market.

Lets start with a simple GOLD:USD ratio chart that goes back to the 2011 all time high in gold. The bottom for the ratio came in toward the end of 2015 and has been slowly rising  in what we can now call a bullish rising 5 point rising wedge reversal pattern. The 2011 bear market in the ratio ended in June of 2019 when the top rail was broken to the upside. Less than a year later the price action took out the top rail of the blue bullish rising wedge reversal pattern and is starting to impulse higher. This is a very bullish development.

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Commodities

Monday, July 27, 2020

Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The move we saw in Silver early this week to new 6-year high price levels, above $22.60, is quite likely the biggest upside move in Silver since the bottom in March 2020 – after the US stock market collapsed because of the COVID-19 virus event. This new rally in Silver is likely the move we’ve been suggesting to our followers relating to a series of measured upside price moves totaling approximately $5.30 in each advance.

We wrote about these measured price moves in Gold and Silver in this article – Click Here

As traders, watching bonds accelerate moderately higher as the US Dollar falls and the stock market attempts new lofty levels, we are intrigued by the move in metals because it suggests a large segment of investors believe a bubble is nearing very peak valuation levels. The only reason metals, particularly Silver, would be accelerating as it has recently is that traders have suddenly adopted a stronger demand for second-stage hedging of risk.

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Commodities

Monday, July 27, 2020

The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

We tend to spend a lot of time looking into the rearview mirror, especially when under duress.

Connected to this is something psychologists call "recency bias." This simply means that what has happened in the near to intermediate past tends to inform and influence us as to how we should behave in the future.

The 2011 to early 2019 precious metals bear saga was broken only by a six-month bull hiatus in early 2016 – which then gave most of the rise back over the next two years!

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Commodities

Sunday, July 26, 2020

New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

European leaders stroke a historic deal that could be a game-changer and provide a support for the euro and gold against the U.S. dollar.

Historic deal. Pivotal moment for Europe. On Monday, the EU leaders agreed on a massive economic stimulus plan, after a long and crotchety summit. If passed through the European Parliament and ratified by all EU states, the European Commission could borrow 750 billion euros to finance the recovery fund and distribute 390 billion in grants and 360 billion in loans across the countries most impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic.

That's breaking news and potentially a game-changer. The stimulus could, of course, help somewhat the European economies, supporting the recovery, but the key issue is that the summit’s outcome is an unprecedented act of European solidarity. Some analysts even see the agreement as the first step towards a true fiscal union. It’s still far from it, but the recovery fund marks a precedent for common debt financing at the EU level.
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Commodities

Saturday, July 25, 2020

How High Will Silver Go? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

The torrid rally in the silver market reached a major milestone this morning as prices hit $21/oz.

On Monday, the silver spot price tracked by Money Metals Exchange closed at $20.12 (the futures market price settled at $20.19).

That marks the first above-$20 close for silver since 2016.

The white-hot silver market is busting through some resistance levels that should clear the way for higher highs ahead. Silver prices traded up Tuesday morning to $21.21 oz.

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Commodities

Saturday, July 25, 2020

If You Own Gold, Look Out Below / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

It has been quite some time since I have published an article on gold. Unfortunately, we have become so busy at Elliottwavetrader that I simply have not had the time to publish many public articles.

So, as we are approaching an inflection point, I thought it would be an appropriate time to publish a public article.

Now, I have to be honest. I am quite disappointed at what I am reading publicly about gold. Many are still trying to sell you on the fact that gold is a hedge against market volatility. They suggest that you need to own gold to protect your portfolio when the stock market tanks. Well, in many past articles, I have outlined that history simply does not support this perspective.

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Commodities

Saturday, July 25, 2020

Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team believes Crude Oil and Energy, in general, has stalled near major resistance and maybe setting up a big downside move as the COVID-19 virus continues to roil regional and global economies. 

The recent news that the COVID-19 virus cases have skyrocketed suggests further economic shutdowns may push oil prices below $35 ppb over the next few weeks and months.  Our researchers believe Oil has already set up a resistance level near $42 and will begin to move lower as concerns about the economic recovery transition through expectations related to oil demand going forward.  We believe the renewed global economic demand for oil will present a very real possibility that oil could collapse below $35 ppb over the next 30 days.

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Commodities

Saturday, July 25, 2020

The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

In this week's advisory, sector expert Michael Ballanger reviews the most recent market news, celebrates old-school communication techniques and offers strategies for investing in the dog days of summer.

As the month of July moves into its final ten-day stretch, I see NASDAQ records falling left and right as the drivers of fear that dominated in March are now "yesterday's news." Rising second waves of infection and death have been shunted aside in favor of a reborn optimism surrounding "vaccines" and "V-shaped data" and "added stimulus" and just about anything imaginable that can drive money into stocks.

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Commodities

Friday, July 24, 2020

The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

We’ve been micro-managing silver lately in NFTRH and NFTRH+ updates and that is for a reason. The reason is that gold’s wild little bro has been rallying – in what is turning out to be 5 clear waves – since the March crash.

When that crash reversed, my view, and hence the NFTRH view was that it was likely to have been a horrifying shakeout of the silver bulls that due to its violence may well have sparked a bull market of some kind on the flush. We noted in real time that silver and precious metals mining stocks often make dramatic crash lows immediately preceding significant new rallies or bull markets. Silver was in an uptrend before the crash and that was a significant factor to a bullish view, post-crash.

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Commodities

Friday, July 24, 2020

How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Previously, I have shown how the Dow has actually outperformed silver and gold since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913.

Today, if silver had the same kind of performance as the Dow since around the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, then it would have topped out at $225.20 [(29568.6/78.78)*.6). Yet, it only topped out around $50 in 1980 and 2011.

In 1973 silver was in a similar type of position. The Dow had peaked at 1067.2 (in Jan 1973), which represented a X13.55 (1067.2/78.78) since 1913. If silver scored a similar performance, it would have had a peak of $8.128, yet its peak at that time (the beginning of 1973) was only around $2.56, which was achieved in 1968.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 23, 2020

China Recovered in Q2. Will the Red Dragon Sink Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

China’s economy grew 3.2 percent in Q2 2020. The expansion was above expectations, but it does not have to sink gold.

Last week, China reported that its economy grew 3.2 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of this year, following a 6.8 percent contraction in the previous quarter, as the chart below shows. Importantly, the actual growth rate beat the market expectations of a 2.5 percent expansion. The number is of great importance also because China is the first major economy to report positive growth after the coronavirus pandemic and the Great Lockdown. So, the Chinese data bode well for the U.S. and other countries, where the epidemic started later.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 23, 2020

Translating the Gold Index Signal into Gold Target / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Last week, we wrote that gold miners flashed an “extremely overbought” signal, which they had only flashed once in the past – almost right at the 2016 top. The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index recently moved to the highest level that it could reach – 100.

The only other case when the index was at 100, was in mid-2016.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 23, 2020

Weakness in commodity prices suggests a slowing economy / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Donald_W_Dony

As the world's economic engine starts to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, the demand for certain key commodities are a good indicator of the rebound strength.

The S&P GSCI Commodity Index (Chart 1) is a collection of 24 commodities from all commodity sectors (energy products, industrial metals, agricultural products, livestock products and precious metals).

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Gold and Oil: Be Aware of the "Spike" / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: EWI

"Hope and fear look different on a chart"

Recently in these pages, we noted that bull markets in stocks tend to end with "a subtly slowing ascent" rather than with a final "spike" higher, as many investors believe. Historical examples were provided.

It was also pointed out that, by contrast, commodities do tend to end major uptrends with a price spike.

The Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, by Frost & Prechter explains why (keep in mind regarding the quote from the book that fifth waves are the final wave in the main trend of a financial market):

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Gold and gold mining stocks are entering a strong seasonal phase / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Dimitri_Speck

You may have heard that gold typically rallies seasonally from the middle of the year. This trend is driven by jewelry demand, which increases ahead of the Christmas business, the Indian wedding season and the Chinese New Year celebrations on the back of advance purchases by jewelers, which tend to put upward pressure on prices.

But what about the seasonal trend in gold stocks? Since the earnings of gold producers are highly geared to the gold price, a relationship should be discernible.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Silver Eyes Key Breakout Levels as Inflation Heats Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Gold and silver markets advanced early this week, with silver leading the way.  On Thursday, the metals sold off a bit as the U.S. dollar gained.

The major trend for the dollar, however, is down. The Dollar Index has been grinding lower since mid March, when it put in a spike high. 

Silver finally broke through $19 level with a strong close above it on Monday.  There hasn’t yet been much follow-through. Although silver has continued to close above $19, we’re not seeing a big momentum push higher.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Gold During Coronavirus Recession and Beyond / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

It’s official now! On June 8, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research stated that economic activity in the United States had peaked in February 2020 (and in Q4 2019, when it comes to the peak in quarterly economic activity), marking the start of a recession. The peak also designates the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and lasted 128 months, the longest in the history of business cycles dating back to 1854.

How did gold behave during the last U.S. economic expansion? Let’s look at the chart below. As one can see, a lot happened in the gold market during 2009-2020 period. Initially, the yellow metal rallied until 2011, doubling its price from about $900 to $1,900 in September 2011.
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Commodities

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Summertime Sizzle for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Summer doldrums? Not for precious metals markets!

In early July, gold and silver each broke out to fresh multi-year highs. The yellow metal is within striking distance of new all-time highs and the headline worthy figure of $2,000/oz.

The white metal, meanwhile, has a lot of catching up to do. And as it does, the gains in percentage terms could be explosive.

Silver has already packed on 60% since its March panic-selling low. Importantly, it has shown leadership by narrowing its historically large discount to the gold price.

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Commodities

Saturday, July 18, 2020

Silver Demand Exploding! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Silver investment demand is exploding in recent months, skyrocketing higher in wildly-unprecedented fashion!  That has catapulted silver sharply higher since mid-March’s COVID-19-lockdown stock panic.  Accelerating even in this usually-weak summer season, the massive capital inflows deluging into silver show no signs of abating.  This is very bullish for silver, yet most traders remain unaware it is happening.

While silver prices are fairly-widely followed, the data revealing the underlying fundamentals driving this metal is sparse.  The best silver global supply-and-demand data is only published once a year by the venerable Silver Institute in its outstanding World Silver Surveys.  The latest covering 2019 was released in April, and is essential reading for all traders interested in silver.  One key trend is very relevant to today.

Last year global silver demand edged up an ever-so-slight 0.4% to 991.8m ounces worldwide.  Every demand category fell except for two, net physical investment and net investment in exchange-traded funds.  The former rose a respectable 12.3% to 186.1m ounces.  It makes sense investors’ interest in silver should grow with its price climbing 15.3% in 2019.  That translated into far faster growth in silver ETFs.

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Commodities

Friday, July 17, 2020

Gold Rallies Together With U.S. Covid-19 Cases / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The number of cases of Covid-19 in the U.S. have been rallying very quickly in last weeks, giving way only to the gold prices, which have surpassed $1,800.

It’s not easy to terminate the viruses, especially that they are not quite alive. Indeed, the pandemic of the coronavirus is still not over, as the chart below shows. The global number of daily confirmed Covid-19 cases has surpassed 220,000 last week – and the trend is still upward.

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