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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Monday, January 27, 2014

How Long Can Gold Prices Be Held Down - Supply Factors / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Supply changes coming?

On the supply side, we note that newly mined gold supply in 2013 was around 2,800 tonnes [final figures yet to be published] and scrap gold was around 1,400 tonnes, before U.S. sales [which were around 1,200 tonnes in 2013]. That totaled 5,400 tonnes.

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Commodities

Monday, January 27, 2014

Market Disruptor: Nuclear Restarts Spells Trouble for LNG / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: OilPrice_Com

There are two major factors that have emerged in the last five years that have sparked a surge in LNG investments. First is the shale gas "revolution" in the United States, which allowed the U.S. to vault to the top spot in the world for natural gas production. This caused prices to crater to below $2 per million Btu (MMBTu) in 2012, down from their 2008 highs above $10/MMBtu. Natural gas became significantly cheaper in the U.S. than nearly everywhere else in the world.

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Commodities

Monday, January 27, 2014

US Natural Gas Glut To Gas Panic – Time For A Bull Run / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Andrew_McKillop

Feast to Famine

Friday 24 January, as global stock markets and emerging market currencies took another hit, natural gas in the US – the world's lowest priced gas - soared by 9.6% in a single day, rising to $5.18 per million British thermal units (MBTU) pricing it at $30.04 per barrel of oil equivalent at the Henry Hub. Over the week, prices gained close to 20%. US gas prices on Friday were at their highest since June 2010.

Related to the Emerging market exit panic and the US taper down threat, from the Fed buying $85 billion a month of “troubled debt and assets”, to a mere $75 billion a month, investors had to run somewhere. Starkly underpriced US natural gas was the weekly winner.

Reeling back the story to 2010, the last time US gas was priced at $30.04 per barrel of oil equivalent, compared to the “natural price of oil” at nearly $100 a barrel, the “shale gas revolution” had gone critical and was running riot. Today, the sequels are coming fast.

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Commodities

Monday, January 27, 2014

Gold Price Canary In The Coal Mine / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Andrew_McKillop

The Cycles Roll On

On an almost predictable, totally certain cyclic basis, financial market crises throw up one pat question, with only one pat answer. What does the survival of our current finance, monetary and economic system depend on? It depends on people preferring fiat money more than gold. From the moment in 1971 when US president Nixon “broke the link with gold”, the dollar floated free and made the cyclic attempts to demonetize gold a permanent feature of the financial market system, and the collateral cause of its regular and cyclic crises. To be sure, we will not be told when the next “reset” will happen by the banksters operating this permanent rearguard fight against reality – but it will be soon.

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Commodities

Monday, January 27, 2014

Gold Junior Miners... The Importance of Being Too Early / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: Rambus_Chartology

There is a lot we could discuss in this Weekend Report from the price action in the US stock markets to the world stock markets. As we are almost fully invested in the precious metals complex, and especially the juniors at this time, I think we need to put aside all the outside noise and focus on our PM investments.

I know many of our subscribers follow other market other than the precious metals sector which is good. There are thousands of investment opportunities out there that can be a daunting task trying to figure out where to invest ones hard earned capital. I'm agnostic when it comes to making money in the markets. I don't care which area to invest in as long as there is some volatility either going up or down. The 1990's was a good time to invest in the tech stocks for example.

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Commodities

Monday, January 27, 2014

Silver Lagging Gold Price Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Clive_Maund

While gold has rallied across its downtrend channel in recent weeks to arrive at its top boundary, silver has arrived at the upper boundary of its channel by limping sideways. Next week is decision time - either it breaks out upside from the channel or it drops into another downleg. The technicals suggest that it will do the latter, but also that this will likely mark the drop into the final low before an important reversal to the upside takes place.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Comex Gold Potential Claims Per Deliverable Ounces Rise to 112 to 1 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Jesse

As you know January is a non-active month for gold on the Comex, but February tends to be quite lively.

Here is the warehouse inventory picture for registered (deliverable) gold ounces. As you can see without exception the levels of bullion ready to be sold is quite low.

As a reminder, that is only one side of the picture. There is an additional category of gold held in these warehouses in 'eligible' bullion form that can be transferred to deliverable with the issuance of some fairly simple paperwork.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Gold and Silver Confiscation? It’s Written In The Law / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Paul_Behan

Whilst most people in the precious metal community know about President Roosevelt’s gold confiscation in the 1930’s, less people are aware that there was also an executive order to confiscate silver which I wrote about here: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article36933.html

The topic of gold and silver confiscation never seems to go away so I thought it would be interesting to look at the issue from a legal perspective. As I live in Australia, I looked at the two laws that cover our country:

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Commodities

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Climate Change, Polar Vortex's and Nuclear Energy / Commodities / Uranium

By: Richard_Mills

What does nuclear energy have to do with a polar vortex, record cold/snow and climate change? Read on to find out...

From the World Nuclear Association (WNA) we take the following numbers as updated January 3rd, 2014. An important point to remember is I'm only going to use demand numbers from 'future reactors envisaged in specific plans and proposals and expected to be operating by 2030.'

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Commodities

Saturday, January 25, 2014

Gold & Silver Chart Reading More Accurately Depicts Fundamentals/Technicals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Michael_Noonan

Is there a difference between fundamental analysis v technical analysis? A qualified yes. How so qualified? We do not speak for others, not even from the "technical" camp for there is a distinct difference between strict technical analysis and "reading" a chart based solely on price and volume.

We are not fundamentalists, at all, with emphasis on at all. Nor are we technicians, as most technical analysts, [TA], are. TA rely upon a few or several technical tools as a means of interpreting the markets, such as moving averages, [even used by fundamentalists, to a degree], RSI, Bollinger Bands, MACD, trend lines, overbought/oversold indicators, etc, etc.

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Commodities

Friday, January 24, 2014

Gold and Silver Trading Alert: Strong Rally’s Implications / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In short: Opening a speculative short position (half of the regular position) in gold, silver and mining stocks might be a good idea right now.

Yesterday, gold rallied significantly, mining stocks rallied less significantly (didn’t close higher than on Tuesday) and silver moved higher very insignificantly. Let’s see how much changed (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Friday, January 24, 2014

Gold Price Bottoming, Gold Stocks Set to Soar / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold is bottoming, showing incredible resilience over the past 7 months.  After suffering an epic plunge in last year’s second quarter, gold has held its ground ever since.  This is despite still facing the same howling headwinds that forced that extraordinary selloff.  Gold has found strong support and carved a massive double bottom.  Thus 2013’s gold super-storm has passed, and a mighty new upleg is dawning.

Obviously last year was exceedingly miserable for gold.  This metal plunged 27.9%, its worst calendar-year performance in 32 years!  When something hasn’t been witnessed for a third of a century, there is no doubt it is rare and extreme.  But the whole year masks the real story, the second quarter.  The gold price plummeted an astounding 22.8% in 2013’s Q2.  That was its worst calendar quarter in 93 years!

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Commodities

Friday, January 24, 2014

Fiat Money Implications for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Alasdair_Macleod

By December, the most recent month for which statistics are available, the US dollar Fiat Money Quantity (FMQ) had grown to $12.48 trillion. This is $5.05 trillion more than if it had grown in line with the established average monthly growth rate from 1960 to the month before the Lehman Crisis. By this measure of currency inflation, since August 2009 inflation is now 68% above trend. This is illustrated in Chart 1 below.

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Commodities

Friday, January 24, 2014

Germany’s Gold is the Story de Jour / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Alasdair_Macleod

It transpired last week that of the 43-odd tonnes per annum the Bundesbank expects to be returned from the New York Fed only 5 tonnes arrived in 2013. Furthermore, of the 373.7 tonnes stored with the Banque de France only 32 tonnes was delivered. This is little more than a morning’s delivery in the London market, so it is hard to swallow the Bundesbank’s excuses about logistics.

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Commodities

Friday, January 24, 2014

Comparing Apples and Oranges of Silver and Gold Price Manipulation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

By now, most observers have heard of precious metals price manipulation. As the issue creeps into the mainstream, more and more investors will come to understand it - along with its vast implications.

We've covered the mechanisms used to manipulate the metals extensively, but it is important to point out the differences between gold and silver in terms of how they are managed. This is because it provides excellent insight into the relative character of each metal's unique supply and demand profile.

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Commodities

Friday, January 24, 2014

Why Gold Stocks are Leading Gold Bullion Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

At the start of the year we asserted that the mining equities could lead the metals higher. Since then, the shares have roared higher while the metals have remained subdued. Gold has gained a bit but Silver has really struggled. Why are the stocks performing so well if the metals are not confirming?

The main reason is the stocks led the metals down (specifically Gold) during the bear market. The chart below plots CDNX (Canadian juniors), GDXJ (US juniors), GDX (large caps) and Gold. Note that both junior markets peaked months before Gold. GDX technically peaked at the same time but began its topping process in December 2010, well before Gold peaked.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Black Swans, Yellow Gold - Gold as a disinflation hedge Part2 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Michael_J_Kosares

(The following is the second of a five-part series on how gold performs during periods of deflation, chronic disinflation, runaway stagflation and hyperinflation. The second installment examines gold’s safe-haven role during a disinflationary breakdown like the one in 2008-2009.)

“The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history. . .But we act as though we are able to predict historical events, or, even worse, as if we are able to change the course of history. We produce thirty-year projections of social security deficits and oil prices without realizing that we cannot even predict these for next summer — our cumulative prediction errors for political and economic events are so monstrous that every time I look at the empirical record I have to pinch myself to verify that I am not dreaming. What is surprising is not the magnitude of our forecast errors, but our absence of awareness of it.” - Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan — The Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2010

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Commodities

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Two Gold Stocks You’ll Wish You Owned in 2013… and Should Still Buy Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: Casey_Research

By Laurynas Vegys, Research Analyst

Looking back on 2013, we have to conclude that it was one of the worst years for precious metals stocks in recent memory—despite all the reasons why it should have been a great one.

Here's a sober look at the performance of the most widely followed indices in the precious metals (PM) sector.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Silver 'Bullets' - Not just about Vampires and Werewolves / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: David_Morgan

The idea that bullets made from silver offered an effective (sometimes only) means of dispatching evil entities from vampires to werewolves, has been around in popular mythology for quite some time. A Brothers Grimm fairy tale called The Two Brothers, features a supposedly conventional bullet-proof witch being given an attitude adjustment via the use of silver bullets. According to Bulgarian legend, Delyo, a 17th century rebel who led forces against the Ottoman Empire, was immune to injury from either swords or guns, so his enemies cast a silver bullet in order to dispatch him from the scene.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Gold Investors Buy Signal Patience is Required / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Toby_Connor

In my last post I noted that gold could give a major buy signal in the next 2-3 weeks. Let me stress again that patience is required right here. Gold has to confirm the intermediate rally first. That means it needs to break above $1268 and make a higher high. If it doesn't do that then no buy signal will be generated. Without a reversal of the pattern of lower lows and lower highs then this is just another weak bear market rally destined to roll over and break the bulls hearts again.

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