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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Saturday, July 27, 2019

Range Bound Financial Markets and Economy in Good Shape / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: QUANTO

Markets at all time highs and considerably calmer option market VIX index suggest that we could be in a slow grind higher for risk markets.

ECB Drahghi hits at easing

Christopher Graham, economist at Standard Chartered, notes that the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates on hold at its 25 July meeting, but President Mario Draghi sent a strong signal that further easing would be delivered in September as per expectations. Key Quotes “By adjusting its forward guidance to note that rates would remain at current “or lower levels” until at least mid-2020 (in line with our expectations), the ECB has reinforced our view that interest rate cuts will be delivered after the summer break.” “We continue to expect a 10bps deposit rate cut in September and a further 10bps cut in December, to -0.60% by year-end.” “The Governing Council (GC) is also considering a broader package of measures; Draghi noted that committees have been tasked to explore other options, including new net asset purchases (both in size and composition), tiered deposit rates, and ways to reinforce forward guidance on policy rates.” “In a sign that the ECB has become increasingly concerned about the euro-area inflation outlook and persistently low inflation expectations, it also noted its “commitment to symmetry in the inflation aim”, implying that an overshoot of 2.0% would now be tolerated.” “The bar to other policy measures remains higher than for rate cuts, in our view, and Draghi admitted that agreement on the GC was not unanimous. Nonetheless, the likelihood of QE being restarted by year-end has increased considering press release, particularly if euro-area economic activity remains weak or deteriorates further.” “At the same time, we reiterate that a convincing QE programme would need to be open-ended and would require controversial rule changes, most likely a change to issuer limits.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 26, 2019

Many Stock Investors & Traders Expect a Correction Over the Next Few Months / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

After a big 7 month rally, many investors and traders are expecting a pullback/correction sometime in the next few months. This begs the question: if everyone thinks this way, will they all be right? Today’s headlines:

  1. A big 7 month rally.
  2. “The stock market today is just like 1998.”
  3. Volatility continues to fall.
  4. Semiconductors v-shaped recovery
  5. Gold:silver ratio continues to fall
  6. U.S. Dollar’s extremely low volatility

These headlines are from CNBC:

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 26, 2019

The Stock Chart That Has the Fed in a Panic / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

Just what exactly is terrifying the Fed?

Over the last week, multiple Fed officials have surfaced to suggest the Fed needs to start cutting interest rates right now.

Indeed, on Thursday, John Williams, who runs the NY Fed (the branch in charge of market operations) suggested the Fed needs to cut rates to ZERO again.

Not 2%, or 1%, ZERO.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 26, 2019

Next Recession: The Case For A 36% Stock Market Plunge / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Dan_Amerman

If there is a recession in the next one to two years, there is also likely to be another bear market for stocks. Based on their experience over their lifetimes, many investors are expecting a "normal" bear market in that event, perhaps in the 20% to 25% range in terms of losses.

However, we are not in normal times, and we have seen a fundamental change in stock valuations over the last more than twenty years. We have also seen a major change in the losses experienced in bear markets, relative to prior decades.

This analysis takes a detailed visual look at the history of the S&P 500 stock index since 1962, and shows how the fundamentals have changed since the mid 1990s. Using simple averages, it then shows why the base case for a new bear market could be a two year inflation-adjusted loss of 36%, which would exceed anything experienced in the 1960s, 1980s or 1990s.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 25, 2019

Global Banking System Black Hole Being Exposed - PART II / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Nearly a decade ago, the globe experienced the biggest banking system failures we had seen in nearly a century.  The exposure to risk that was inherent throughout the global banking system was so completely ignored that when the crisis unfolded, hardly anyone completely understood the depth of the risks at play.  Could it happen again?  Now?

Have foreign banking institutions extended credit and debt risks beyond safe levels again?  Are Deutsche Bank risk factors going to complicate an already fractured  Asia, China, and Europe?  What are the signs we should be looking for in terms of extended weakness or a breaking point?

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Risk:Reward over the next few months Doesn’t favor Stock Market Bulls / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The past 7 months saw stocks and bonds surge together (bond yields fell). With stocks trending sideways, bond yields are also bottoming. Today’s headlines:

  1. Yield curve un-inverted
  2. Leading indicator for the economy & industrial production
  3. Put/Call ratio tanked
  4. Consumer Staples surge
  5. This defensive sector is no longer outperforming
  6. Silver’s golden cross

Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Black Hole In Global Banking Is Being Exposed / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Almost a decade ago, the global financial crisis of 2008-09 exposed billions of people to the risks within the global financial/banking sector.  With all this money flowing around the globe and with banks able to facilitate greater and more diverse risk/derivatives investments, the central banks and insurance companies are left with an incredible “black hole” of exposed risk that is almost impossible to quantify.  When we add the shadow/gray market banking risks into this equation and begin to understand the complexity of commodity-backed or Purchase Order backed financing that has become commonplace throughout the planet, we have to ask ourselves one question – “what would it take for these risks to become another crisis?”

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Stock Market Breadth Warning Signs for the Stock Market’s Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

As the stock market trades on light volume, various breadth indicators are flashing short term warning signs. Today’s headlines:

  1. A real breadth divergence.
  2. Weaker than average economic growth
  3. Lagging margin debt
  4. Baltic Dry Index surge
  5. Gold:silver ratio
  6. Netflix

Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

US Dollar Index tightly wound between: US Bond Yields down on safety flows / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: QUANTO

As markets begin a new week, there are interesting opportunities. SPX ended the week in a state of uncertainty. Weekend news from Iran seem to suggest there is no truce visible as Iran has not yet let go of the Oil tanker captured. It was flying a UK flag. US has not fully involved itself in the spate and thus market are waiting on a US response. However bond market seem to have made up its mind that they will not wait for a strike but rather exercise caution before its too late.

USDJPY has opened the week above 108. Above 108.4 the pair may look to extend gains to 109.2. The lack of impetus suggest we will fall to 105 on USDJPY.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Stocks Bull or Bear? The Market’s Message / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Plunger

Today I would like to review the state two markets. The general stock market and the precious metals market. Following this I will give an update on Plungers Core-7 portfolio.

Consider this report an opportunity to read an alternative view of the markets. My views of the major averages are certainly at odds with consensus opinion. Furthermore, they are also at odds with the methodology of chartology. A strict interpretation of the charts will not lead to the conclusions I present here. I understand I am not in synch with the Rambus interpretation of the stock market, but he has been gracious enough to allow me to present it anyway.

The General Stock Market: Run!… Don’t walk away from this thing.

Identifying whether it is a bull or bear market is a more effective method to operate than focusing on individual stocks that may go up or down. Most investors however, are mainly engaged in stock selection and spend little time in deep thought as to the state of the averages. This directly relates to what I consider the most important thing in investing. That is aligning oneself with the primary trend.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 22, 2019

Stock Market Increasing Technical Weakness / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question.

Intermediate trend –  The continued strength has muddied the water and we may have to wait until August/September before the intermediate trend becomes more clear.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 22, 2019

Stock Markets Setting Up For A Volatility Explosion – Are You Ready? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Today, we are going to share with you some incredible charts that highlight why we believe all traders and investors need to stay keenly aware of the potential for very explosive moves over the next 6 to 12+ months.  We’ve authored a number of articles about super-cycles, Gold, Oil and dozens of other symbols suggesting that a deeper and more complicated economic shift is taking place throughout the world.  We’ve been following the trail of money and investments for many months and attempting to map out what we believe will happen in the future with our proprietary predictive modeling systems and adaptive learning utilities.  Get ready for some crazy price ranges and a big move in the markets over the next 30+ days.

Right now, we believe the US stock market is poised for another attempt to move briefly higher as a flood of earnings hits the news wires next week.  We are confident that the US stock market will attempt a move higher based on our predictive modeling systems and other technical analysis tools.  We want to warn you that this upside move will likely become a “wash-out high” price rotation where price rallies briefly, stalls, then reverses back to the downside fairly quickly.  We believe this “wash-out high” price pattern will set up and execute before August 5th or so.  Be prepared as this move may sucker in a number of new long traders just before it breaks lower.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 22, 2019

What you Really need to Know about the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

If you read financial news & market analysis from pundits every day, it’s easy to be overwhelmed by countless charts, data, indicators, opinions, etc. In this post, I’m going to focus on what I think really matters for the stock market right now. A quick recap:

  1. Long term risk:reward does not favor bulls
  2. Fundamentals (next 6-9 months): favors bulls
  3. Technicals (next 6-9 months): favors bulls (i.e. late cycle rally)
  4. Short term: mixed/bearish
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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 19, 2019

XAU, Newmont, Dollar, DOW RTT Charts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: readtheticker

The magic of support and resistance channel lines and how they direct price. Here are some chart disclosed to members via the RTT Plus service. All charts are a few weeks old.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 19, 2019

Gold and US Stock Mid Term Election and Decade Cycles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently I have been trying to show all the different angles to look at and analyze the US stock market and the precious metals sector. At the end of this report, I will share with you several crucial angles and charts you must see for our self.  There are several very intriguing things unfolding right now which are interconnected in ways you may not have known.

Gold Midterm Years and Seasonality

Let’s start off with the price of gold and what it typically does each month during the presidential midterm year, which is this year 2019. The graph below shows the average price movement during the midterm election since 1971 and I think the chart speaks for its self.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 18, 2019

Who is Lying: Gold or the Dow? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

Both Gold and the Dow has in recent times made significant bull market signals.

The Dow in 2016 when it broke out of a rising resistance line:

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 18, 2019

Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Stock Market Topping Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers identified this critical Double-Top pattern in the Transportation Index after a very strong price rally on Friday, July 12.  Double-Top patterns are very important in terms of Fibonacci price structure because they reflect a complete price rejection at a certain price level.  In this case, the TRAN Double Top level is $10,655 and our research team believes weakness at this level will push a downward price swing which should attempt to break through the $10,250 level and possibly attempt to move much lower.

The Transportation Index reflects future expectations for shipping of goods and raw materials across the US and, of course, is somewhat related to global economic activity.  If the Transportation Index falls in price, then future expectations are for weaker economic activity.  If it rises, then investors expect the economy to continue to strengthen.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 18, 2019

Is the Stock Market Rally Floating on Thin Air? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market went nowhere today. Today’s headlines:

  1. S&P internal weakness
  2. Low volume vs. high volume rallies
  3. Short term, medium term, and long term trend
  4. Mean reversion
  5. Consumer discretionary on fire

Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 18, 2019

SPX Consolidating, GBP and CAD Could be in Focus / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: QUANTO

SPX may now be consolidating at 3000 levels for some time. If the market does not selloff aggressively at these levels, then we will melt higher.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Everyone knows something bad is brewing not just in tnhe USA but globally within the financial systems. Most countries are bankrupt, and almost all currencies have been losing value for the past year. Everyone is playing the game of musical chairs and getting creative with how they borrow, lend, create, and steal money in hopes the world does not catch on to just how corrupt and bad things really are.  

It’s just a matter of time before we see another financial market meltdown and what I show you here today gives you an idea of just how close we could be to a market collapse. 

The financial markets rarely repeat the same type of crisis, but most crisis’ cause the stock market to sell off and crash in the same way. Human nature and emotions do not change, and because traders and investors drive the price action of stocks we are able to profit from bear markets.  

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