Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, September 15, 2020
Look at This Big Reminder of Dot.com Stock Market Mania / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: EWI
Here’s when a surge in IPOs tends to occur
Let's pretend for a second we're trying to explain to an alien how the weather works on planet Earth.
When the sky turns dark and cloudy, we might tell him, this indicates rain -- perhaps even thunderstorms. However, cloudy skies do not necessarily signal when a downpour will start or how long it will last if it does start. After all, the sun could break through before an umbrella is needed. All that said, when the sky turns ominous, it's a good idea to have your umbrella handy -- just in case.
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Monday, September 14, 2020
Stock Market SPY Expectations For The Rest Of September / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Over the past 28 years, the SPY has gained an average of 3.45% in 15 of those years; it has fallen by 6.42% in the other 13 years.
- The critical support level for SPY is 332.85. If the SPY finds support at this level then you can expect continued, moderate price increases.
- Prepare for a moderate increase in volatility for the rest of September – watch the VIX.
My research team and I have been pouring over the charts in an effort to attempt to identify any support or weakness related to the increase in volatility over the past 7+ trading days. The VIX is currently at 29.71 after reaching a high of 38.28. We believe the increased price volatility is here to stay – at least through the end of 2020. This means skilled technical traders should prepare for some potentially large and aggressive price swings over the next few weeks and months.
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Monday, September 14, 2020
Stock Market Recovery from the Sharp Correction Goes On / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
The bulls responded with an upswing, which I saw as probable to happen. Is the sharp correction over now? Thus far, my answer remains the same as yesterday – in terms of prices, the worst is likely behind us, in terms of time, we have a way to go still.
So, what about the key juncture stocks are at? Let's get and feel the pulse via a few selected charts.
As for narratives, the tensions around China are back in the spotlight. Otherwise, my yesterday's comments still apply:
(…) Unless the Democrats raise up a notch their existing calls for Biden not to concede defeat under any circumstances, unless rioting ramps up, unless the Fed takes away the punch bowl, and finally unless Americans happily march into another lockdown that who knows when it would really end and on what terms (Cuomo's conditions serve as a great, sorry, terrible example), the stock bull run can go on in September before meeting the October headwinds.
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Sunday, September 13, 2020
Biden or Trump Will Keep The Money Spigots Open / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Stephen_McBride
Trump or Biden: who will be our next president? That’s the most pressing question in America right now. And in less than nine weeks, we’ll get our answer.
As I type, Biden leads in most polls. But betting markets say it’s a coin flip. Polls tend to be wrong, and betting markets are usually right.
But I’m not writing you today to predict who’ll come out on top. Or guess at what might change depending on who wins. (I’ll leave that to the talking heads on TV.)
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Saturday, September 12, 2020
Does the Stock Market Really "See" the Future? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Addressing the notion that the market "discounts" future events
Let's start off with an August 26 quote from Marketwatch:
[F]rothy financial markets ... currently are discounting the nirvana of an uninterrupted V-shaped recovery. ...
Of course, that statement means that the reason investors have been bidding stock prices higher is that they collectively anticipate a strong economic recovery.
But is that the real reason that stock prices are in record-high territory again?
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Friday, September 11, 2020
Stock Market Correction or Reversal? The Jury Isn't Out! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
The bears retook initiative yesterday, twisting the hands of weak longs. Where is the usual buy the dip mentality, and all the complacency that is part and parcel of bull markets? It's not just stocks that are at autumn crossroads, and attract extensive comments and discussions (thank you all the commenters!).
If you didn't know, I'm active and present throughout the day at investing.com (just enter my name into the search box there, and it'll offer me as the author – select an article, and check out what you're missing) , one of the sites where free versions of Stock Trading Alerts are featured daily. I'm there, interacting with my audience (just as with my subscribers whenever they send me a comment or question via Sunshine Profits – thanks for that!) – I am discussing this topic today given the key juncture stocks are at.
These comments are so important that they can't go into the From the Readers' Mailbag section. Instead, I'm featuring them (marked as C) before the technical part of today's analysis.
Here are a few quotes in response to yesterday's "Correction Or Reversal? Cast Your Votes" article.
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Wednesday, September 09, 2020
Stock Traders’ Dreams Come True – Big Technical Price Swings Pending on SP500 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- A potentially critical price inflection point and technical pattern setup that has nearly completed and validated over the past few days, weeks, and months.
- Potential flag/pennant formation on our Custom Valuations Index Weekly Chart shows a possible 11% to 16% (or more) downside price correction in SPY.
- Fibonacci Price Modeling system’s projects SPY downside target level near $284.50 before a bounce.
Over the past few weeks and months, my team and I have published a series of research articles suggesting the continued market melt-up was driven by speculation and the US Fed’s policies and support for the markets. We’ve also highlighted a number of technical patterns that have setup within various symbols that have generated strong warnings of a potential price reversal over the past few weeks. The biggest pattern has been the Head-and-Shoulders price patterns. The sudden downside price move in the NASDAQ, and other markets, last week caught many traders/investors off-guard. One day after a very strong rally in the US stock markets, the price reversed and sold-off nearly 6% – a shocking reversal of trend.
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Wednesday, September 09, 2020
Should You Be Concerned About The Stock Market Big Downside Rotation? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Don’t panic. Technical Analysis does not confirm a deeper price correction at this time, nor does this appear to be the Bull-Trap we have been warning about… yet.
- We are waiting until next week to see if price confirms any new trend.
- Volatility should decrease if this is just a moderate price rotation.
Is this the “Bull-Trap” setup we have been warning about for some time now? Should traders be concerned about deeper downside price trends or a collapse in the markets?
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Tuesday, September 08, 2020
Options Traders Keep "Opting" for Even Higher Stock Market Prices / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
And this continued bullish behavior speaks volumes about the trend
What a rally!
After a swift and scary ride downward, the DJIA has climbed from a low of 18,213 on March 23 to near-record high territory.
Even so, many investors are still bullish, and they're backing up their conviction with a great enthusiasm for call options, which are bets on higher prices. (By contrast, as you probably know, put options are placed when market participants expect lower prices.)
This enthusiasm for call options has been on display for at least a couple of months now.
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Monday, September 07, 2020
Stock Market SPX to Gold/Silver Ratios Explored – What To Expect Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- A Phase II rally in metals is just getting ready to start.
- Phase II rallies are very explosive and tend to enter Parabolic trends.
- Gold could rally 250% to 350% over the next several years.
- Silver could rally 550% to 750% over the next several years.
My research team and I started exploring the relationship between the Gold-to-Silver ratio and the S&P 500 to find trends in Metals and the US Stock Markets. We called the collapse in the Gold-to-Silver ratio accurately back in March 2020, and we believe the current setup in the S&P to the Gold-to-Silver ratio shows the move in Precious Metals is far from over.
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Sunday, September 06, 2020
Stock Market Divergent Top - Are Fangs Going To Breakdown Soon? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- FANG Index may begin to peak/top as RSI Divergence pattern sets up.
- Dow Theory trend divergence confirmation suggests the end of the “Excess Rally” is near.
- The VIX moving higher suggests greater concerns of increased volatility.
- Dow Jones Utility Index moving lower on increased volume may be the key in a multiple-pattern set up that will confirm larger market trends.
Friday, September 04, 2020
Stock Market September Consolidation Vs Straight Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
The month of August wrapped up around the monthly highs as the Emini S&P 500 (ES) price action gained about +7% vs July. It was a statistical outlier as it was one of the biggest gains for August in decades. Nonetheless, the August monthly candle demonstrated a powerful immediate continuation off of the past few months’ setup and trend continuation pattern. A few important things on our radar inform us that September likely won’t be as easy or one directional.
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Friday, September 04, 2020
How to Profit When the Smart Money Leaves Their Footprints / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: John_Mauldin
By Justin Spittler: Imagine you’re sitting at a bar in Manhattan. As the bartender’s making your drink, you overhear a conversation from the table behind you.
Two well-dressed men are talking. One looks familiar. He’s a hedge fund manager you’ve seen on TV. You don’t recognize the other guy. But, from the sound of it, they work together.
They’re talking excitedly about one stock, and how they bought $1 billion worth of it today. By the end of the week, they plan to buy several billion more.
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Thursday, September 03, 2020
The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
I know many of you view the Fed as quite omnipotent, with the ability to move the market with a simple stroke of a key. In fact, this perspective is so ubiquitous that I know almost none of you will take my presentation seriously, as “common-think” has taken over most investor’s ability to see the facts presented to us by the market. However, please do recognize that my perspective is based in fact and history, rather than the supposition and fallacy upon which most perspectives in the market are based.
Moreover, I have presented many prognostications in the past which have seemed unrealistic at the time, yet almost all of which have been realized within the fullness of time. So, why not offer another? (smile)
The main premise which is universally accepted is that the Fed can simply “print” money and push it into the stock market to cause the market to rally. In this way, the Fed has supposedly supported the market, and has caused this rally we have been seeing for many years.
To this end, I will again quote a comment I received to one of my recent articles, which explains the common perception on this matter quite clearly:
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Thursday, September 03, 2020
S&P 500: Revealing the "Real" Story About the Record High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Financial headlines do not always tell the full story
Sometimes you have to dig a little deeper than the headline to find out what really happened.
You know, like what's suggested by the television title "True Hollywood Story," or the BBC's "Real Story."
Sometimes getting the real scoop simply satisfies one's curiosity and is more entertainment than anything else. But, at other times, digging deeper into a subject can help one draw an important conclusion that may affect one's life -- or investments.
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Thursday, September 03, 2020
This Group of Wealthy Investors Hoard Cash at Unprecedented Levels / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: EWI
Yes, stocks have been in rally mode.
Even so, a group of multimillionaires appears to be shifting from an optimistic mindset to one of pessimism about the financial future.
Their solution is hard, cold cash.
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Wednesday, September 02, 2020
Stock Market Dow Jones Utilities Breaking Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- Dow Theory suggests indices must confirm each other and volume must confirm the trend.
- The new downward trend in the Dow Utilities Index suggests indices are starting to break apart in terms of trending in unison.
- Volume recently has been trailing lower, which suggests the momentum behind these new all-time highs is weakening.
- If the Utilities Index continues to move lower and we see increased volume in the selling trend, we will consider the Dow Theory Trend component “broken” and expect a major peak/top soon after.
We know some of you are Dow Theory enthusiasts and followers. We follow the Transportation Index as a leading indicator for potential major market trends almost exclusively because of what we have learned from Dow Theory. If you are unfamiliar with Dow Theory, we suggest visiting Investopedia’s summary of this technical theory for a quick refresher. You can also learn more about the primary indicator in Dow Theory here. The two most important aspects of Dow Theory that we are researching today are two components:
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Wednesday, September 02, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Trend Lines in Focus / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: We should be approaching an important high, with confirmation coming over the near term.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, August 31, 2020
Stock Market Expanding Wedge May Prompt Big Price Correction – Big Top Be Set Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- The Monthly S&P500 E-Mini Futures chart is revealing an Expanding Wedge pattern that has been setting up since Jan/Feb 2018.
- The VIX has set up a base and begun to move moderately higher over the past 7+ days – above the 20.00 point level and above the GAP created by the initial COVID-19 selloff.
- Our Custom Volatility Index chart warns of a “bull trap” set up, and we may see an 11% to 15% (or more) sell-off in the US and global markets if the Custom Volatility Index collapses below 10 over the next few weeks.
- Are These Technical Setups Warning That A Market Top Is Forming?
I want to bring this large expanding wedge pattern to your attention as my research team and I watch the markets continue to push to new all-time highs. This is a follow on to our research from our Special Alert report warning of Head-and-Shoulder patterns in some of our custom charts. We know it may sound a bit alarming to be the one to bring up a potentially devastating Bearish technical pattern at this time, but as technical traders, we must stay aware of risks even if they may not materialize. Trading is a process where we take measured risks in an attempt to generate profits over time. Risk becomes a very big issue if it is not properly managed – just as trading becomes very difficult if one doesn’t learn to take profits in good trades.
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Friday, August 28, 2020
Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
I’ve been posting exclusively for the last 2 months on the PM complex as I know that is most of our members main focus. Since the PM complex is now in consolidation mode I would like to take this time to show you the other bull market that has been taking place in the US stock markets. It is important for me personally to be on record as early as possible because it means nothing after the fact. The easiest trade to make is the one you do in hindsight, after the fact, as many like to say, I seen that move coming a mile away, again after it’s already half over.
I got on record on June 22nd of this year when I made a small post on the, Markets Update, that I do at the end of each day.
June 22nd post:
Before we look at today’s charts I would like to give you a short answer on why I’m taking on so many positions in the stock markets. The short answer for now is that I recently had an epiphany moment similar to the one I had on the US dollar back in 2014 when I discovered that massive 11 year base that was a fractal to the one that formed previously that most of you have seen many times.
Currently I’m seeing some patterns setting up in the stock markets that could lead to a very powerful rally the likes of what we’ve never seen before. I realize that many think I’m living in a fantasy land by being bullish on the stock markets which is fine because I don’t want to run with the herd. I want to go where no man has gone before. That sounds like a movie title.
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