Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, April 06, 2011
BullBear Market Report / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
In the last BullBear Market Report, I called for a bottom to the Middle East/Japan panic selloff while at the same time laying out the parameters for a bearish turn in the markets. The bearish conditions did not come to fruition and BullBear Traders were able to catch the exact bottom of the move after having lightened their positions at the exact top. I emphasized an overweight position in BRIC and Emerging Markets and that has proven to be an accurate call as well. We also jumped on bottoms in Grains and Agriculture as well as a long term breakout in Clean/Alternative Energy.
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Wednesday, April 06, 2011
How Investors Can Avoid the Growing Inflation Threat / Stock-Markets / Inflation
Martin Hutchinson writes: Pretty much everyone but U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke sees that inflation is returning: After all, even Bernanke's favorite inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator, was up 0.4% in February - which hints at an annualized inflation rate of almost 5%.
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Wednesday, April 06, 2011
Stock Market Investing with Cycle and Bartels Theory / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
A stock price time series wiggles by nature. These wiggles may or may not be in tune. If they are in tune their common frequency can be called a 'cycle'. To determine the cycle period we can do several measures.
Eyeballs: Viewing the chart for common distance between highs and lows.
Tuesday, April 05, 2011
Stock Shrug Off Dwindling Consumer Confidence / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Jason Simpkins writes: High prices for commodities last month sent consumer confidence spiraling to a three-month low, but that doesn't necessarily mean the stock market will suffer.
On the contrary, stocks over the past two years actually have performed remarkably well in the months following sharp declines in consumer confidence.
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Tuesday, April 05, 2011
Stock Market Quiet At Resistance...After Hours Buyout... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
What else can you say about today! The market refused to sell all day, even though we tested and failed at the test of the old highs on Friday. You would have thought that the bears could have done some damage today based on Friday's failure off a long run up, but that was not to be. The market moved up a bit at the open, but then spent the rest of the day trading on either side of the flat line with the Nasdaq leading down and the Dow leading up. Apple Inc. was a drag along with Google Inc. That's really the only reason why the Nasdaq was red at all. So nothing to talk about all that negative with technology. The NDX has under performed for some time now, but again, that's mostly due to Apple, which is taking a long and much needed rest from going up every single day for seemingly years.
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Tuesday, April 05, 2011
Stock Market Flash Crash Assets Move to Bullish Camp / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Despite recent calls for a new bear market, the bulls still have a few things going for them as we kick off the week of trading:
- Friday’s labor report came in above expectations.
- Defensive assets are lagging again.
- Energy investments continue to perform well.
- The Fed is still on track to complete QE2 as originally planned.
Monday, April 04, 2011
SPX bull mkt projection update / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
About six months ago we posted a projection for the remainder of the bull market using OEW analysis and the current bull market characteristics. At the time of the projection the SPX had closed at 1149 that friday September 24th: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/....
We anticipated, at the time, the current uptrend from July10 and SPX 1011 would last six months until Jan11 and reach SPX 1313. Then the following downtrend would take one month to unfold and decline 9%.
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Monday, April 04, 2011
How to Profit From Nonsense -- New Financial Regulations / Stock-Markets / Market Regulation
One way of searching for investment opportunities is to look for businesses that are thriving with products and services that are in demand. But another method for finding investment opportunity is counterintuitive: Look for something that is broken or doesn't make sense. Once you locate that problem or fault, either look for a company that may have a solution or perhaps look at the problem itself to see if it is viable or just noise.
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Monday, April 04, 2011
What the NYSE New Highs Are Saying About the Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Today, we are reporting on the raw data for the daily NYSE New Highs. On this chart, a minimum of 100 is a very important level in a rally, and 150+ is what I want to see. 50 is neutral, and less than 50 is historically Negative.
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Monday, April 04, 2011
Sun Spots Solar Activity and the Financial Markets Part II / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
If you have not already read the first part of my analysis on Solar Activity and the Financial Markets, please do so here, as it provides important background for part II.
In that article I provided evidence that rising solar activity into a solar peak is correlated with periods of inflation and that in historical secular commodities bull markets the relative pricing of hard assets to stocks has each time peaked at the solar peak. Commodities are sought after in inflationary times and their prices are a key ingredient in consumer price inflation levels, producing a feedback loop, but given that stocks also usually perform well in inflationary times is there any correlation between stocks and solar cycles?
Monday, April 04, 2011
Stock Market Cycle Review, Don't Tell the Retail Investor, but.. / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
In Richard Wyckoff writings he suggest that the retail investor is always the last in, they tend to buy at the tops and sell at the bottoms. We dont tell them, just between you and me, we are closer to a top than a bottom. I recently saw dshort.com QRAtio market valuation of stocks and it also suggest that stocks are handsomely priced. Lets review some cycles to find if we concur.
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Monday, April 04, 2011
U.S. Dollar's Impact on S&P 500, Gold, and Crude Oil / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
I was starting to put on my bullish hat on Friday morning when out of the blue an ugly close has forced me to rethink my position. After viewing a few hundred charts, I have determined that while I am still leaning into higher prices at this point in time, I will not totally rule out a rollover on the S&P 500. In coming days the news flow will be extreme and headline risk will be everywhere we look. The S&P 500 has been able to deflect worry for quite some time now and in every case the resiliency is unquestionable.
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Monday, April 04, 2011
Stock Market Pullback Before Going Higher Likely / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Current Position of the Market
Very Long-term trend - The continuing strength in the indices is causing me to question whether we are in a secular bear market or two consecutive cyclical bull/bear cycles. In any case, the very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014-15.
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Sunday, April 03, 2011
Stocks Stealth Bull Market Trend Forecast 2011 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The stocks stealth bull market passed its second anniversary this month (March 2011), having trended from trough to peak on the Dow Jones Industrial Averages stock Index from 6470 to 12,400, a gain of over 91%. This in-depth analysis seeks to formulate a concluding trend forecast for the remainder of 2011 and into early 2012 (over 9 months). Whilst this article contains key analysis and the concluding trend forecast, the full analysis and implications of are contained within NEW FREE Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 Ebook, that will be made available for download within the next few days, ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE Newsletter to get access to the FREE ebook download.
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Sunday, April 03, 2011
NYAD … Stock Market Breadth Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
As a follow up to our previous post: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/01/17/nyad-market-breadth/ we provide an update on the NYAD charts.
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Sunday, April 03, 2011
Understanding American Fascism, the Insider Trading Shows / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
"I seen my opportunities, and I took 'em." ~ George Washington Plunkett (of Tammany Hall)
Oh, boy! A scandal among the rich – the very, very rich – and famous. Warren Buffett's would-be replacement got his hand caught in the cookie jar. He is no longer in the running in the Buffett-replacement sweepstakes.
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Saturday, April 02, 2011
Stock Market Confirmed Uptrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The SPX/DOW confirmed a new uptrend this week. The uptrend will be counted as Major wave 3 of Primary wave III. This uptrend should last into June with a targeted range of SPX 1440-1462. For the week economic reports were mixed: ten improving and nine declining. On the upbeat we had personal income/spending, PCE prices, pending home sales, auto sales, the monetary base and leading wbase, the WLEI, the payrolls report, and the unemployment rate declined.
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Saturday, April 02, 2011
Stock Market Strong Week...Friday Reversal? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
This is the question we have to ask ourselves tonight. The market had a very nice week with today being the day we tested back up to resistance on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The old high on the S&P 500 being 1344 with some resistance at 1332 first. We hit 1337 today right in the middle. The Nasdaq had strong horizontal resistance off a gap down at 2800 to 2808. We hit 2802 today on the highs. So in essence, both indexes hit their strong resistance levels today. The reason this is so important to look at is because we want to see what happened after resistance was hit.
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Saturday, April 02, 2011
Excess Liquidity & Cheap Money Runs Rampant on Wall Street / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
If one studies markets trading during the week, one thing becomes glaringly obvious-- there is too much cheap money sloshing around markets these days (See Chart Below). You no longer have healthy, two-sided markets in most asset classes.
Friday, April 01, 2011
Strong Corporate Earnings Mean a Strong Stock Market, Right? / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings
Earnings season is upon us, so it's a good time to delve into how earnings affect stock prices. Here's an excerpt from Bob Prechter's February 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist. It considers the conventional belief in a cause/effect relationship between earnings and stock prices. EWI's 50-page Independent Investor eBook includes the entire report on the effect 10 different economic events, political events, and monetary and fiscal policies have on the market. You can download it now for free.
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