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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Monday, February 12, 2007

Stock Market is Overbought, Overvalued and Overbullish / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy

By: John_Mauldin

Are we overbought and overvalued? Maybe. Is inflation coming under control? Maybe not. Did housing construction rebound last month? No. The only rebound was in the statistics. (I know readers will be shocked to learn that some statistics just may not actually be what the headline says.) We look at all this and more as we ponder a world awash in liquidity.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 11, 2007

Irrational Exhuberance In China's Stock market / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy

By: Peter_Schiff

Recently voiced concerns from the Chinese government that their surging domestic stock market was crossing into bubble territory helped to set off last week's sharp decline, including a single day plunge of 6.5% (the equivalent of more than 800 points on the Dow Jones.) While a bubble may indeed be forming in Chinese stocks, my guess is that there is room for a lot more air before it finally pops. 

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 11, 2007

Stock & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - 11th February 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

Going into the week, members had the benefit of the 1458 target on the S&P futures that I mentioned in the Forum and reiterated several times at the start of the week. As you might recall, the February 4th update stated:

“I think this is the time the market makes or breaks. I do think the market has a great chance of turning before the target of SPX 1472 I have. As it was difficult to share the opinion of a huge rally in the summer, its hard here to express a bit of danger as the markets advance each and every day. I see next week as a slight advance on Monday and then possible a boring consolidation before another advance that marks a turn. Do we have confirmation that this week was it. No way, but I do have enough evidence that if things remain as they are, we will rollover soon. That said, you can make the case that if all is peaceful next week, we could doll up a few markets and give them their finishing touches.”

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 11, 2007

A Raging Bull - Africa, Nanotechnology and the Danger of Sub-prime US mortgages / Stock-Markets / Analysis & Strategy

By: John_Mauldin

This week I am in South Africa. At the moment I am literally flying from Johannesburg to Durban in a single-engine Pilates PC 12, a very upscale Swiss-manufactured plane. I am told pilots will know and appreciate the plane. It is supposedly the safest plane in the world, which is somewhat comforting as we bounce through a few storm clouds (and thunderstorms later tonight of the way to Cape Town!). My business partners and hosts, Dr. Prieur du Plessis and Paul Stewart of Plexus Asset Management, have kept me busy, but it has been fun.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 10, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 10th Feb 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is: Same as last week, most of the major indices hit new multiyear or all time highs.

Short Term
Last week I discussed the implications of the Russell 2000 (R2K) moving up for 6 consecutive days. On Thursday last week the S&P mid cap index (MID) completed a run of 10 consecutive up days, an occurrence seen only twice in the past 15 years

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Market Wrap - Summary All Markets / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

Interest rates are still key, as they affect the bond market, the mortgage market, and the housing market; which in turn affects many peripheral markets such as lumber, copper, furniture, and appliances to name but a few.

Interest rates had been on the rise but began to drop back this week. That is good news for all those that own mortgages - although we did see that mortgages still went up, not down. Hopefully the lesser rates will filter down to the mortgage markets - if the bankers want to play nice, which is a very cold altar to place one's faith in.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Market Wrap - US Economy and Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

The Labor Department reported an increase of 111,000 additional workers to the employment numbers. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%. Factory orders and consumer confidence increased. Initially the dollar was sold and interest rates rose. After second thoughts, investors bought the dollar and interest rates fell.

The Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment rose to 96.9 in January, from 91.7 in December. The Commerce Department reported that factory orders increased 2.4% in December, twice the 1.2% gain in November. The Labor Department reported that worker's average hourly earnings rose 3 cents, or 0.2%, after increasing 0.4% the previous month.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 04, 2007

Dow Transports Confirms the Stocks Bull Market - Dow Theory works ! / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

The first week of February was a memorable one for the stock market in many ways. From seeing the President make a rare appearance on the exchange floor of the NYSE, to the all-time high in the Dow Industrial index, to the breakouts in the small cap and mid cap sectors. But most memorable from a technical standpoint was the new all-time high in the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA). That will be the focus of this commentary.

Every one of the eight major sectors that are part of the Group Movement Index (GMI) closed higher for the week ending Feb. 2, putting the GMI reading at a new high for the year as well as a 52-week high. The GMI is what is used to measure the strength or weakness behind the broad market, and it's arguably the simplest definition of whether stocks are in a bull market or a bear market.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 03, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 3rd Feb 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is:
Last week most of the major indices hit new multiyear or all time highs.

Short Term
In April 2004 the Russell 2000 (R2K) topped after moving upward for 8 consecutive days. After that high it fell 14.7% to its August 13 low. That is the only example I would find where the index made a significant top concluding with 6 or more consecutive up days. On average the R2K moves upward for 6 or more consecutive days about twice a year and those moves are usually in the midst of a larger upward move.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 02, 2007

Seven Reasons to Sell your Stock Market Portfolio / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Paul_Lamont

We have pinpointed the seven reasons why investors should be currently selling their stock and mutual fund portfolio. As Marc Faber has been saying recently: "In a selling panic you should buy, but in the buying mania that we have now the wisest course of action is to liquidate." After discussing reasons to sell, we will recommend what steps you should take with your cash to protect value. But first, the 7 reasons:

1. Sentiment

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 01, 2007

Elliott Wave Analysis of the 1929 Crash Compared with where China is Today / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Paul_Lamont

When assets are priced with record levels of optimism, reality will disappoint. As Dr. Marc Faber said recently "the art dealers are bullish on art, the commodity traders bullish on commodities, the real estate guys bullish on real estate, the stock traders bullish on stocks, everybody has something to buy." Therefore the wise contrarian strategy is interest-bearing cash. Over the next few years, most assets will fall in value as risk returns to the market and leverage is unwound. In the future, credit will be extended with greater caution.

"A bank is a place where they lend you an umbrella in fair weather and ask for it back when it begins to rain." - Robert Frost

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Market Analysis - Stocks, Bonds & Commodities / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

Economy
The Commerce Department reported sales of new homes were up 4.8% to an annual pace of 1.12 million units. New orders for durable goods gained 3.1%. Durable goods for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft, was up 2.4%. Spending on equipment and software increased at an annual rate of 7.7% in the third quarter, after a 1.4% decrease in the prior quarter. Orders for commercial aircraft increased 27% after rising 3.8% in November. Orders excluding military equipment rose 3.9% last month.

The economy expanded at a 2% annual pace in the third quarter, the slowest rate so far reported. Motor vehicle and parts bookings jumped 6.8% in December - not an insignificant amount. Orders for machinery rose 5%, largely attributed to an increased demand for communications equipment. Existing Homes sales for 2006 were down 8.4% from 2005 levels of 6.648 million. And while 2006 was the weakest year of sales since 2003's 6.175 million, keep in mind that existing home sales averaged 3.99 million units annually during the nineties.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 28, 2007

Stocks & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - 28th Jan 07 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

What a week! I'm going to do less writing than usual and focus more on technical analysis, which is, after all, how we trade. But, looking back over the last update, it's impressive that the market managed to make it all happen so quickly. The Jan 21st update said:

Friday's advance on the S&P will probably have early next week taking off to new highs, where we have the potential of creating a reversal pattern. Otherwise, the S&P's are looking to buy time into either the end of the month, or possibly around February 8. If so, we might trade sideways to down until we approach those dates. I'd rather have a pop to short as I patiently watch to see if my NYSE target mentioned months ago reaches perfection.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 28, 2007

Dow Jones Stock Market Cycle Analysis - Trend Still Up, Still Positive, But Caution is Advised / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

The positive for the market is obviously that it continues to move higher and higher as the advance out of the June/July lows remains intact. According to Dow theory, the Secondary Trend also remains intact and as I read the Dow theory I also believe that the Primary Trend is also positive. Cyclically, the longer-term trend remains positive as well. So, let me make it clear that until a confirmed downturn according to Dow theory and/or a cyclical breakdown of at least intermediate degree occurs, this advance cannot be called done.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 27, 2007

A look at the short-term inflationary trends in Gold and Oil stocks / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

In the commentary of early January, I made a case for the oil and gas stocks finding support above their 200-day moving averages and making a technical rally based on a number of momentum signals, particularly in the Amex Natural Gas Index (XNG). That forecast has since materialized and we have the beginnings of a rally in the natural resources sector. The question now becomes one of how much more upside potential remains for the leading natural resource stocks; that question we'll take up in this commentary.

Donald Rowe of the Wall Street Digest points out, “ Historically, numerous corporations try to raise prices during the month of January in order to improve margins. Consequently, prices tend to rise-- even spike up--in January. However, many of these January price increases are rolled back in February or March when they meet resistance from customers or when market share declines. Consequently, inflation is always a problem every January.”

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, January 27, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report 27th Jan 2007 / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is:
Since 1887 (120 years) the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been up 70% of the time in the coming week (the last 3 trading days of January and the first 2 days of February) during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle (next week).

Short Term
Most of the short term indicators are at or near neutral and showing a very modest positive bias. I cannot draw conclusions from them.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, January 25, 2007

Global stock markets and gold going crazy / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets

By: Money_and_Markets

Next month I plan on heading to Asia for meetings and some rest & relaxation. So this week I started preparing for my trip. And I checked to see how Vietnam, one of the last countries I visited in Asia, is doing. I practically fell off my chair! When I last talked about Vietnam in Money & Markets , I called it “the next miracle economy.” I said the economy and political system were opening up ... that the country's GDP was roaring ahead at 8% a year ... that 83 million citizens wanted new lifestyles ... and that China's growth was helping Vietnam move into the 21st century.

I also pointed out that Vietnam has rich natural resources, including 600 million barrels of proven oil reserves, 6.8 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves, and 20 billion tons of coal.

ho chi minh stock index
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Stock-Markets

Monday, January 22, 2007

Emerging Markets Investment - Brazil the Next China Like Miracle / Stock-Markets / Investing

By: Money_and_Markets

Just a few years ago, suppose you had known that China, a backward, deeply impoverished communist country, would quickly transform itself into the fastest-growing capitalist economy on the planet. And suppose you had invested $10,000 in the leading Chinese companies.

That single insight alone — plus a dose of standard due diligence — could have been sufficient to transform your initial investment into $50,000, $100,000, or as much as $200,000 today.

Even if you could go back just 19 months ... and even if you made no effort whatsoever to pick a better-than-average Chinese company ... your $10,000 invested in the Shanghai Composite Index would be worth $28,372 at the close of trading this past Friday.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 21, 2007

Stock & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave update - Play It Again, Sam ! / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: Dominick

The Jan 14th update stated:

So, what's next? NOW we are finally getting to where I can become comfortable looking for the market to complete my count. I may have started to sound like a broken record, saying, “I still didn't see confirmation of a top and that I needed another new high”. But it's the market's that's been playing this same old sideways tune.

Sentiment indicators have tried to provide sell signals intraday but we haven't closed into those levels. Indicators are diverged, but this recent rally has kept them from triggering sell signals. With that said, the good news is that if I do get the signals any time soon, I can finally be comfortable labeling a chart complete, knowing it's correct.

Well, nothing has changed. I still don't have a sell signal and I don't gauge sentiment at the end of an options expiry week. We opened the week on the S&P trying to poke our heads to higher levels only to find sellers out playing whack-a-mole. We tried on Tuesday, and then again on Wednesday only to selloff into Thursday. Basically, the market's still playing the same sideways tune.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 21, 2007

Stock Market Cycles Analysis - The Trend is still up, Sentiment is High, but Change is in the Wind / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Tim_Wood

Let me begin by explaining that in my work with the markets there are really two distinctly separate pieces. First, is what I call the "over the horizon" piece. This work utilizes the Dow theory, cycles and statistical trend quantifications, all to develop probabilities as to what likely lies ahead or "over the horizon" for a given market. The second piece of my work is primarily centered around my Cycle Turn Indicator. This indicator provides us with confirmation at important turn points. So, it tells us what we should expect now and in the immediate future. All the while, I am constantly watching and monitoring the longer-term "over the horizon" work as well. Sometimes, the intermediate-term work can evolve and change the longer-term forecasts, while other times it may confirm the longer-term forecast. So, this is an act of working two ends to the middle.

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