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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 02, 2018

RUT vs. Dow: Stock Market Today is Just Like 1999? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market has made a breadth divergence recently. We examined the S&P 500’s breadth divergence yesterday. While this isn’t necessarily bearish, there are a cluster of signals in 2007 (near the previous bull market’s top).

We are seeing more and more of a breadth divergence.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 02, 2018

Expect Stock Market Q3 Earnings Price Surprises / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our focus is on developing and deploying very specialized price modeling and predictive analysis systems.  Our objective is to inform our members of these potential price moves and to assist them in finding successful trading opportunities.  We are alerting all of our followers of a potential move today, because we believe this move could frighten some investors as we expect price rotation as Q3 earnings data is released just before the November 2018 mid-term elections.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 02, 2018

Dow Stock Market Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Austin_Galt

Previous analysis updated – price traded higher as outlined, however, the expectation of a secondary high was wrong. On the plus side, this move to record highs has provided clarity going forward and the expectation of a significant decline remains unchanged.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 02, 2018

The ETNA Broker Back Office / Stock-Markets / Learn to Trade

By: Sumeet_Manhas

The Broker Back Office is essentially a web-based platform that brokers, dealers and designed to help automate the business processes that involve client interfacing, compliance reporting, and account custodian to regulatory requirements. The Broker Back Office essentially offers the broker-dealers more control over the regulatory authority and ease operations of the online brokerage and investment firms.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 01, 2018

Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks were virtually flat on Friday, as investors continued to hesitate following the recent record-breaking rally. The S&P 500 index remains close to its September the 21st record high, but will it resume its uptrend?

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.1% on Friday, as investors sentiment remained basically unchanged following some economic data announcements along with the third quarter's ending. The S&P 500 index has reached the new record high of 2,940.91 more than a week ago on September the 21st. It currently trades 0.9% below that high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1% and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 0.05% on Friday.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 01, 2018

Predicting Markets is Like Forecasting the Weather / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Last week, my forecast was for a dollar rally, (which we are in the midst of) a drop in the mining indexes into around Oct 4/8 (going down since Tuesday) and a top on Sept 21 on the SPX and down into around Oct 8th.

The lack of any real selling on the stock market since the Sept 21st top leads me to believe the bottom is going to be further out than I thought.  Now my forecast is for a bottom around Oct 17th (based on the 4 year cycle Oct ’14).  I still think we hold to a 5-6% decline on the S&P 500 (SPX 2792).
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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 01, 2018

Stock Market On the Cusp / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend –  Breaking to a new high has only delayed the anticipated correction into mid-October.
Last week’s action suggests that it may have already started.  

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, September 30, 2018

Will Stocks Keep Their Upward Momentum in October / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

VIX closed beneath Short-term resistance at 12.60, leaving it on a sell signal for a third week in a row.  It appears to be in a holding pattern for the end of the quarter.  However, the Cycles Model shows a likely surge in strength for the VIX through late October.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 28, 2018

Will the Fed’s Rate Hikes Choke the Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: EWI


Fact: The direction of interest rates does not determine the stock market's trend

Investing is hard. You, like many others, probably watch financial TV networks, read analysis, listen to talk shows and talk to fellow investors, trying to understand what's next.

One popular stock market "indicator" is interest rates. Analysts parse every word from the Fed, hoping they hear a clue about interest rates. They assume that falling rates means higher stock prices, while rising rates means lower stocks.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 28, 2018

Fed Quantitative Tightening is Stock Bull’s Death Knell / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The Federal Reserve’s unprecedented quantitative-tightening campaign is finally ramping to its full-steam speed in Q4.  That will destroy $50b per month of quantitative-easing money created out of thin air!  QT will need to maintain this terminal pace for over two years to meaningfully unwind the Fed’s grotesquely-bloated balance sheet.  This record tightening poses a dire threat to today’s QE-inflated overvalued stock markets.

This week traders are focused on the Fed’s 8th rate hike of this cycle, which was universally expected.  Ever since the FOMC’s previous meeting in early August, federal-funds futures have implied odds of another hike way up at 91% to 100% at this latest meeting.  But the Fed’s ongoing hiking pales in comparison with what it’s doing with its balance sheet.  One year after its birth, quantitative tightening is hitting full speed.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 28, 2018

The Russell 2000’s “inside month”. Ready for a Stock Market Christmas Present? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The Russell 2000 (small caps index) is on the verge of making a DOWN “inside month”. A DOWN “inside month” is when:

  1. The market goes down this month, AND…
  2. This month’s HIGH is below last month’s HIGH, while this months LOW is above last month’s LOW.
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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Fed Hikes Interest Rates, Stocks Fall, Just a Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks reversed their yesterday's intraday uptrend following the Fed's Rate Decision release. Will they continue lower today? Or was it just a quick downward correction before another leg up?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.2-0.4% on Wednesday, as investors reacted to the FOMC's Interest Rate hike announcement. The S&P 500 index has reached the new record high of 2,940.91 on Friday. It currently trades 1.1% below that high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2% yesterday.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Examining the Stock Market’s Late-cycle Behavior / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Troy_Bombardia

Lots of traders and investors have been talking about the U.S. stock market’s “late-cycle” behavior recently. I think a lot of them are missing the more important point.

Yes, we are certainly in the late innings of this bull market. HOWEVER, the bull market probably has 1 year left.

For example, Citadel’s Ken Griffin told Bloomberg that the bull market rally has AT LEAST 1.5 – 2 years left. Citadel is one of the few hedge funds that consistently outperforms.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 27, 2018

US & Global Markets Internals / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

To celebrate NFTRH’s 10 year anniversary (Friday, Sept. 28) I’d like to present one segment from this week’s report, NFTRH 518 each day until Friday. These excerpts will give you an idea of what it takes to provide a top tier, best of breed product. But there is much more to a single weekly report than will be shown here publicly. Oh and don’t forget the dynamic in-week market updates as events dictate.

All for 30% less per day than you spend on your single cup of small regular coffee at Dunkin Donuts! Think about that. I mean, I don’t want to downplay the importance of coffee – it makes NFTRH run – but what is the value of consistent, focused and proven market intelligence at your fingertips day to day, week to week and year after year?

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Is the Stock Market’s Volatility about to Spike in October? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market’s volatility continues to be lacking recently.

VIX has completely collapsed, and is now trading sideways in a narrow range. You can see this via VIX’s narrow weekly Bollinger Bands.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

The Post Bubble Market Contraction Thesis Receives Validation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Plunger

In the last two reports I developed the thesis that we are in the early stages of a post bubble contraction (PBC).  This contraction actually began in 2008 and is now reasserting itself in the form of a global liquidity crisis (GLC). In this edition I show how this thesis just received mainstream validation and it’s now time to begin developing an investment strategy.

The FED and central banks responded to the 2008 crisis by lowering rates to zero or less and injected trillions of credit into the system.  Indeed, they were able to re-inflate the pre-crisis bubble and put the contraction on hold, but only at the price of corrupting the core of money and credit itself and their actions exasperated the gap between the haves and the have nots.  QE in the end turned out simply to be monetary policy for the rich. The  result has been to start a world wide populist movement causing outside political contenders to win elections.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Sector Rotation Continues. Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

We’ve been looking at sector rotation quite a bit recently here at BullMarkets. Last week we mentioned that the Dow:Russell ratio (large cap vs. small caps) is about to cross above its 200 day moving average for the first time in a long time.

This means that the Dow is starting to outperform the Russell 2000 for the first time in a long time.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Lessons from Lehman's Collapse 10 Years After Failing / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Michael_Pento

Global financial services firm Lehman Brother’s stock was in free-fall during the first week of September 2008. After making huge bets in the mortgage securities space, Lehman’s President Dick Fuld feared bankruptcy and frantically sought out a buyer. The company was hopeful to strike a weekend deal with either Barclays PLC or Bank of America.

Nevertheless, Lehman’s outsized investments in the mortgage market ultimately proved them too risky a partner for anyone; and the giant investment bank went belly-up on September 15th.  Prior to this event, Lehman had reported record earnings every year from 2005 to 2007. The Street believed the company to be infallible. Analysts held on to hope until the bitter end. Their mantra went something like this, “nothing to see here, this is a small correction in a small section of the housing market that has little effect on the overall economy.”

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Focus on the Stock Market’s Price Action and Ignore the Failed Hindenburg Omen / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Our recent quantitative market studies have shown an interesting divergence:

  1. The U.S. stock market’s own price action suggests that the stock market will continue to rally for another year.
  2. Various studies of the stock market’s breadth have been bearish. They’ve pointed to a “bear market” or “big correction” very soon. Some of these have been the Hindenburg Omen.

So which of these 2 market studies is right? Which is more important? Price action or breadth?

As U.S. stock market investors and traders, our job is to separate the signal from the noise.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, September 24, 2018

Stock Market Macro/Macro View: Waves and Cycles Part II / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Last week, I mainly discussed the coming economic crash and where we are in the cycles.  I also talked about the short term stock market cycles, which I believe have peaked as of Friday or will peak on Monday. In this segment, I will mainly talk about my short term work.

Due to the fact that the waves no longer move up in 5 wave sequences anymore, and the normal cycles are changing rapidly, I have had to augment my wave work with other data including astro-cycles and more technical data. This has forced me to buy other timing experts’ work to meld with my own so I can hone my timing skills better.

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