Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, March 06, 2008
Capital and Debt Markets Crisis- Investors Four Critical Questions / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Doug_Wakefield
Does tracking the major US equity markets give us a full grasp of the amount of risks in our capital markets? Absolutely not. Consider this: Over the last 14 months, from the end of 2006 to the last day of February of 2008, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ 100 are only down 1.58% and .63%, respectively. But, if we look at some of the major SECTORS of our economy, we get a different picture. For example, over the same timeframe, the retail index ($RLX) is down 22.85%, the housing index ($HGX) is down 42.55%, the brokerage index ($XBD) is down 24.90%, and the banking index ($BKX) is down 29.91%, while the healthcare index ($HCX) is only down 2.32%. So, four major areas of our economy are down substantially, and neither the Dow nor the NASDAQ 100 has reflected this reality.
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Thursday, March 06, 2008
Credit Crisis Mega Opportunities as Everything is Repriced to True Values / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Ty_Andros
I can't tell you how wonderful it is to be alive in today's markets. This past week was one of great importance as the markets really signaled enormous new realities which now have to be priced in over the coming years. Volatility is opportunity and it is abundant . What makes it even juicier for the prepared investor is that it is now apparent on WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts, signaling the enormous timeframes in which we are anticipating BIG MOVES! We're only in the second inning in a 9-inning ballgame. Re-pricing of everything to its TRUE VALUE is underway and creating mega opportunities for prepared investors. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
Counter Trend Rally in Stock Market S&P 500 Index / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The plot thickens. In this morning's posting we discussed the likelihood of upside follow-through from yesterday's low at 1307.00 in the S&P 500 e-Mini contract, but that the index would have to hurdle and sustain above 1348.50 to trigger upside acceleration towards the op of the Feb-Mar range. As it turned ou, the e-SPH peaked so far at 1345.00 prior to its mid-session AMBAC swoon. More vital, however, is that the pattern carved out from 1307 to 1345 does NOT exhibit particularly bullish form.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Stocks on the Brink of a Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
At the end of January, I wrote the article entitled, A Probable Path Revealed . In that article, I suggested that the January23 rd low was just the ending of wave (i) of C. After a brief rally, I expected waves (iii), (iv) and (v) to proceed. Well, the rally wasn't brief. But it appears that wave (ii) is now complete. Rather that using Elliott Wave, I have been keeping a chart of the DJIA with the head-and-shoulders neckline (red), the trendline of the advance from March 2003 and the Fibonacci retracements. They tell a compelling story at a glance.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Financial Markets Investing- Exploring All The Possibilities / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
By: Captain_Hook
These are definitely interesting times we live in, and the markets are also in this category from a predictive standpoint. Many are now dependent on the stock market's performance, so the stakes are high on numerous fronts. And for this reason you not only have participants remaining invested far past what would have historically been viewed as ‘prudent', but master planners in our society feel justified in arriving at a desired outcome no matter the means. This of course often involves market manipulation in addition to a regular priming of the pump by influencing prices in the futures markets, which extends from currencies to foreign stock markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
NASDAQ at Bargain Buy Levels or On the Edge of a Crash? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Marty_Chenard
1. Is the NASDAQ 100 at a great bargain level?
2. Or, is it at the edge of a potentially perilous drop?
To get the answer, we have to look at a "long term", 10 year view of where it is now and how it is performing.
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Monday, March 03, 2008
Stock Markets Targeting January Lows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Book-ending the month of February were to big sell-offs that left investors wondering if we were on the precipice of something truly large in the way of another major decline. While the first decline was more the ending to a very poor January, the one on Friday has investors questioning their views on the economy and the implications for stock prices in the weeks ahead.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 03, 2008
Epic Paradigm Shift Looms Against the Acceptance of Fiat Money / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Joseph_Russo
Adaptive Trading and Investment Perspectives Since we first began offering our market forecasting and analysis services to the public some two years ago, Elliott Wave Technology has been strident in directing our clients focus and attention to the negative wealth effects that eroding fiat-currency's impose - along with the plausibility of epic consequence, if and when an inevitable paradigm shift against the acceptance of fiat-money were to ever reach critical mass. No matter where we are in a given investment cycle, we must first recognize the inherent nature of that environment, and then adapt our various investment postures with fitting perspective.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 03, 2008
Credit Crisis Morphs Into Stagflation- Protect Your Wealth! / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The credit crunch that broke with the two hedge funds failing in July 2007 is now into its ninth month with announces losses / bad debt write downs of £163 billions.
Way back in July the expectations were that sub prime related losses would be in the region of some $140billions.
With some venturing as far as possibly suggesting losses of $200, with some mavericks venturing to as high as $400 billion which was larger than that of the Savings and Loans crisis of $160 billions that required a US Tax Payer bailout of $124billions.
The article of July 07 (Hedge Fund Sub prime Credit Crunch to Impact Interest Rates ) pointed out that the consequences of the credit crunch would be the worlds central banks ratcheting up money supply growth and making deep cuts in interest rates despite the inflationary consequences as the Central banks attempted to counter the credit crunch liquidity squeeze. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 02, 2008
Stock Market On Target for Retest of January Lows / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: We will probably see a multi month low in the next few weeks.
Short Term After a bottom has been reached downside volume diminishes quickly.
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Saturday, March 01, 2008
Credit Contagion Spreads from Monoline Insurers to VIE's / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The next 3-letter acronym for toxic securities: “VIE” - While banks are lending another $3 billion to Ambac, a bond insurer, in the hope of staving off more rating downgrades, yet another entity looms large in the field of risk management. Suddenly, a new class of structured investment vehicle called Variable Interest Entities (VIEs), now contain toxic properties. It appears that the VIEs are bond issues that participate in the Auction Rate Securities (ARS) market. These bonds have a clause in their covenant that, if an auction fails to provide adequate liquidity, the yield on the bond resets (higher, of course) to a “fail rate.” Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 29, 2008
Digestion Period for Nasdaq Q's Ahead of Break Higher? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Thus far, the Q's (NASDAQ: QQQQ) have managed to plunge from the top of the coil pattern (44.50) to the bottom of the coil pattern (43.15). Apart from the volatility exhibited within the range, let's notice that for the past two weeks, rallies have failed at roughly the same price, which have created a horizontal top plateau at 44.50, which is juxtaposed against a series of rising lows. The vast majority of the time, a "flat top" versus "rising lows" resolves itself with the price structure pushing above the flat top. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 29, 2008
Credit Crisis Timeline - From Foreclosures To Bank Failures / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Paul_Lamont
As Charles Kindleberger asks in the investment classic Manias, Panics and Crashes ; “the essence of financial distress is loss of confidence. What comes next - slow recovery of belief in the future as various aspects of the economy are corrected, or collapse of prices, panic, runs on banks, a rush to get out of illiquid assets and into money?”
Our timeline of financial distress is below:
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Friday, February 29, 2008
Bank Failures Warning! - Banking Crisis Entering a New Stage? / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: I'm going to cut to the chase here: The U.S. financial industry is facing unprecedented challenges. Unlike past crises, which tended to be isolated in one or two parts of the credit market, this one is different ...
We are seeing major credit problems popping up in everything from residential mortgages to commercial mortgages to leveraged buyout loans to credit cards to auto loans. (And I'm probably forgetting a few!)
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Friday, February 29, 2008
Investing in China - Oodles More Money to Be Made! / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: Is China's boom over? Ha! Not by a long shot! China's economic rocket ride higher is far from over, and I think there are oodles of money to be made playing this giant as it awakens — and shakes the world!
First, let's look at some of the recent economic stats coming out of China ...
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Thursday, February 28, 2008
Importance of the Ratio of Leadership Stocks to the Broad Market For Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Background : All sustainable and hold-able rallies have one thing in common. The Ratio of Leadership Stocks to the Broad Market is always positive and trending up to a high level. Simply look at the red bar graph below ... see when it was positive, and then look down at the NYA Index and you will see that these times all represented great upside rallies. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Semiconductor Stock Turn Higher / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
During the past three sessions, the Semiconductor HOLDRs (AMEX: SMH) has climbed above key near-term prior high and trendline resistance at 29.60/80, and has continued still higher towards a test of its February recovery rally peak at 30.24.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Ambac Bailout May Cause Credit Crisis to Worsen / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Axel_Merk
A consortium of banks is considering injecting $3 billion dollars into Ambac, the mono-line insurer that relies on its AAA rating to insure, amongst others, municipal bonds and CDOs ( collateralized debt obligations ). What appears as a rescue plan and may appease the markets short-term, may plant the seeds for disaster.
Mono-line insurers used to be in the business of insuring municipal bonds. For a small fee to the insurers, municipalities were able to attach a AAA rating to their bond offerings, significantly lowering their borrowing cost. The market was so attractive that a short-term market was created where long-term debt was packaged into “auction rate securities” (ARS). ARS are a kind of commercial paper attractive to, amongst others, money market funds and treasury departments of large corporations. Municipal bond funds are also large buyers of insured municipal debt.
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Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Financial Stocks Gaining Upside Momentum / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The Financial Select SPDR (AMEX: XLF) is gaining some upside strength as it emerges from its 3-week sideways but base-link congestion area that projects a measured upside follow-through towards the 28.50 target zone. A climb above 27.50 should trigger upside acceleration. Only a decline that breaks 27.00 will begin to compromise the developing upside breakout.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Subprime Mortgage Scam Lands US Tax Payer $739 Billion Bailout Bill / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Whitney
The SEC probe of the securitization of subprime mortgages into collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), announced last summer, has yielded no official enforcement cases....SEC chief, Christopher Cox, along with other top-level administration officials, has cautioned against quick-fire regulatory or enforcement responses to the worsening credit crisis, noting that the market instead should be left to work it out.” Nicholas Rummel, “SEC Drift Said to Prevent Action on Credit Crunch”, Financial Week Read full article... Read full article...