Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, May 03, 2022
Stock Market Volatility – Traders Must Adapt Or Risk Losing Their Shirts / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Market volatility remains elevated and may be setting the stage for spikes even higher than we have already experienced.
Global money is continuing to flow into the US Dollar making it one of the primary safe-haven trades. This may eventually trigger a broader and deeper selloff in U.S. stocks. As the USD continues to strengthen corporate profits for US multinationals will begin to disappear.
It’s imperative to assess your trading plan, portfolio holdings, and cash resources. Experienced traders know what their downside risk is and adapt as needed to the current market environment.
If you still have money invested in Amazon, Netflix, PayPal, or one of the many other stocks that are sinking fast there is no easy way out. Your options are:
- Hold tight and “hope” for a rally to recover part of your money.
- Reduce some of your position to “limit your downside” in case the bottom really falls out, and then sell the balance after a bounce of 5-8%.
- Move to cash, “bite the bullet”, get a good night’s sleep, take a break, reassess, and live to come back and trade another day.
Wednesday, April 27, 2022
The Spooky Mulder Stock Market - Best Shares Cash ISA for for Accumulating Cheap AI Tech Stocks / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock market price action is proving X files style spooky, not in terms of big price movement but rather that it is spookily following my trend expectation as of late March, unfortunately this is NOT AI generated for if it were I could sit back and retire, this is Deem generated of the trend picture in my mind late March of how things could play out during April and into May. A chart is much better than just text which is open to misinterpretation.
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Wednesday, April 27, 2022
Using Stock Market Comparison Analysis For An Edge / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Multi timeframe, as well as comparison analysis, have many benefits. As traders, we tend to utilize the shorter-term time frames to enter our trades and place our stops. But the BIG money is made from gleaning information from the longer-term charts. We would classify long term as monthly or weekly while short term would be a daily or 4-hour time frame.
Comparison analysis can be done by comparing different time periods or we can see how our market is trading vs another highly correlated market.
Since we have a lot of subscriber interest in stocks, we thought it might be time to compare the current chart of the SPY to the S&P 500 index during the 2002-2009 period. The S&P 500 weekly chart experienced a nice bull market with several buy points from 2002 up to 2007.
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Tuesday, April 26, 2022
FAANG Stocks Earnings Blood Bath - Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Facebook Buying Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's bear market big tech Q1 earnings week when we could see blood on the streets of silicon valley, as Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Qualcom and Intel all report their earnings, potential blood on the street buying opportunties that I and my patrons have been patiently waiting for the buying levels to be triggered as these charts from my early February article illustrate where the dominos could finally start falling as we seee a continuaiton of Friday's plunge on break of key support levels for the likes of Nvidia and Google, seeing big buying levels finally starting to get triggered in the latest phase of this stealth stocks bear market that is cycling through target stocks like the tasmanian devil where my focus was on Google as it finally broke below $2400, a level that I had long flagged to patrons of where I would be buying big and in advance of warned Patrons for several weeks not to jump the gun regardless of what the genernal indices were doing.
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Tuesday, April 26, 2022
3 Recession Indicators are Flashing Red… Here’s Why you Shouldn’t Panic / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
The odds of a recession in the US just spiked considerably.
I’m not saying this to scare you…
That’s what three important recession indicators are saying today.
They’re all flashing “red”…
But as I’ll show you today, this isn’t the time to panic. Instead, it’s an opportunity.
I’ll explain in a moment. First, let’s look at each indicator:
Sunday, April 24, 2022
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING MARKET / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is why one has NO CHOICE but to be invested in price volatile assets such as stocks and housing which whilst yes will move up and down in value from tim to time like a yo yo nevertheless over he long-run will be leveraged to rampant government and central bank money printing inflation so we have NO CHOICE BUT TO BE INVESTED IN SUCH ASSETS! NO CHOICE WHATSOEVER FOR THE ALTERNATIVE IS CERTAIN DESTRUCTION OF ONES HARD EARNED WEALTH which is why the largest asset class I have held for near 10 years now is bricks and mortar UK housing regardless of what the price indices do from month to month, year to year, or the clowns proclaim about imminent deflationary crashes. There is NO CHOICE BUT TO BE HOLD ASSETS THAT ARE LEVERAGED TO INFLATION AS THE ALTERNATIVE IS ONE WILL LOSE THE VALUE OF ALL OF ONES HARD EARNED SAVINGS! Which is why whenever I am asked if now is a good time to buy property I tend to remind those asking that house prices are leveraged to inflation so regardless of the tripe in the clueless mainstream press of how UK housing is unaffordable, however inflation ensures that the overall trend trajectory remains upwards for the fundamental fact that unlike fiat currency houses cannot be printed and thus house prices have confounded the clownomics in the mainstream press by soaring into the stratosphere.
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Sunday, April 24, 2022
Fed Chairman Powell Spooks the Market by Signaling 50 Point Rate Hike / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Tough talk from the Fed roiled markets this past week, with stocks as well as precious metals getting hit.
On Thursday, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank intends to pursue a more rapid pace of interest rate increases. He indicated that a 50-basis point hike in May is likely.
Jerome Powell: We really are committed to using our tools to get 2% inflation back and I think if you look at, for example, if you look at the last tightening cycle, which was a two-year string of 25 basis point hikes from 2004 to 2006, inflation was a little over 3%. So, inflation's much higher now and our policy rate is still more accommodating than it was then. So, it is appropriate, in my view, to be moving a little more quickly. And I also think there's something in the idea of front-end loading, whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate. So, that does point in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table, certainly. We make these decisions at the meeting and we'll make them meeting by meeting, but I would say that 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting.
Thursday, April 21, 2022
Stock Market Turning Around for Good? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 rose incessantly during the regular session but bonds don‘t yet confirm the decline would be over. So much hawkish noise (75bp hike next?), and tech keeps rising? Still a peculiar case of strength but a daily rotation out of energy stocks into tech can‘t be denied. I wouldn‘t yet jump to conclusions about lastingly improving market breadth though. The S&P 500 upswing may just take a few days more to run its course as the tightening heat hasn‘t yet played out. Powell talking tomorrow is a nice opportunity. Real assets will find it easy to recover from yesterday‘s daily setback – they had plenty of opportunities to decline before Feb 24th, yet tellingly didn‘t...
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Thursday, April 21, 2022
Global Stock Market Trends Continue To Push US Dollar & US Assets Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Every day seems filled with some new comment or data point that suggests the Global Market or the US Fed will aggressively attempt to burst the inflation bubble. Global central banks continue to warn that COVID, and other issues, persist. Traders seek some clarity and understanding of what’s going to happen next.
Will The US Stock Market Continue To Rally Higher?
Allow us to help you understand what is happening behind all these data points and news posts. We can understand key market components better by using specialized modeling systems that aim to distill market events into relatable trigger events within our strategies. This, in turn, helps us to better understand what may come next for the US markets.
We’ll focus on some of our Custom Indexes to better illustrate current market trends and conditions. These are examples of our Custom Smart Cash Index (a more global market custom index), our Commodity Price Index, and our Custom US Index (a focused US Custom Index).
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Wednesday, April 20, 2022
This Usually Spells Trouble for the Stock Market (It's Happening Now) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"Even short term, diverging trends can signal an unhealthy market"
If you've been an investor for any appreciable length of time, no doubt you've noticed that all of the stock market indexes usually move in unison.
For example, when the Dow Industrials rally, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ usually do so too -- the same applies during a broad downtrend.
As the April 8 U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly Elliott Wave International publication which provides near-term forecasts for key U.S. financial markets, notes:
Think of the final days of [the big down wave] in March 2009, at the end of the Dow's 54% decline from October 2007. Nearly every stock index made a low within days of March 9, 2009 -- blue chips, technology, small caps, transports, secondary stock indexes -- and all rallied in unison thereafter.
However, when stock indexes begin to diverge, this is usually a sign that the existing trend is about to reverse.
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Tuesday, April 19, 2022
THE INFLATION MONSTER is Forecasting RECESSION / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
What if you could know the future, had a chart of the stock market that showed a high probability trend forecast into the middle of May 2022. We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast right into the middle of May 2022.
Latest Update - The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market, AI Stocks Buying Levels Going Into Earnings
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Tuesday, April 19, 2022
Inflation, Commodities and Interest Rates : Paradigm Shifts in Macrotrends / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Rambus_Chartology
There are just a few times in ones investing career, depending how early you start and if you survive long enough, that you are witness to some extraordinary changes from the MACRO scale perspective. A few examples would be the beginning of the 1929 crash, the end of the secular bull market that was made in 2000 that began in 1974, the 1987 crash which is still the biggest one day percentage drop in stock market history of 23%. Then there was the banking and housing bubble that collapsed into the 2009 crash low which launched our current secular bull market in the stock markets which is now 13 years old.
Then there are more subtle changes in the macro world that are very rare which most investors or even economist don’t have the ability to recognize until they are well established. Eventually the change of trend is so great that one has to accept the fact and recognize it for what it is. In the beginning of a macro shift few believe it is really happening because the trend has been in place for so long that it seems normal and that is how markets work.
What I would like to show you today are several rare macro events that are going to change the world and in ways we may not understand right now, but changes are coming whether we like it or not. To think one person or a group of people can wave their magic wand and make everything the way it was before are in for a rude awakening. We are just now witnessing the birth of these macro trends that are going to be with us for many years into the future.
It is always hard in the beginning because most people don’t understand the changes and lash out to those in charge thinking they can make things right, but again that is wishful thinking. After a period of time has lapsed there will be an adjustment period and a new norm will be established. For those that understand the macro shifts will do well with their investments, but for those that are unwilling to adapt to the new environment will find it much harder and blame everyone and everything for their underperformance or outright failure.
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Tuesday, April 19, 2022
Around the World's Risks and Opportunities with Elliott Waves / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: EWI
Hi,
A "smart" investor knows more than how to pick a stock. Truly smart investors look at stocks...and bonds...and cryptos...and commodities -- to understand the BIG picture.
Only then a certain wisdom emerges that helps you make truly informed, truly smart decisions.
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Monday, April 18, 2022
Stock Market FOMO Gives Way to FEAR of Buying the Dip / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market Investor FOMO of barely a month ago on expectation of a blow off top that most clinged onto during the first few weeks of this sell off is now increasingly giving way to FEAR of an inexplicable never ending slide into the depths of a 2000 style bear market. We'll the Cathy Wood style stocks have been on that path for approaching a year now so perhaps not much downside in those, then again they still are what they were a year ago, NO EARNINGS GARBAGE!
However FEAR is infectious especially for the weak hands, those who where once eager to buy now FEAR perpetual falling prices that results in a state of paralysis. THIS IS WHAT IT ACTUALLY FEELS LIKE TO INVEST IN A FALLING MARKET! Something that is not apparent when looking at the price charts at tops and bottoms where one could easily have bought and sold with the be benefit of hindsight, yeah we'll maybe if one switched OFF the information flow that generates the GREED and FEAR that encourages buying at the top and inaction at the bottom!
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Monday, April 18, 2022
The Witchy Trio: Commodities Supercycle, Inflation, and… Recession? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Submissions
If the current market phenomena were to star in a Shakespeare drama, they would be ideal candidates for the Three Witches. Can you guess who would play who?
Have you ever heard of Shakespeare’s mythological characters, the Three Witches? They are depicted as prophets who represent evil, darkness, chaos, and conflict.
If you look at the market today, you will find ideal candidates for these dark roles. However, while rising commodity prices and inflation have a casting win in their pocket, there is no certain actor to play the third witch. Would the recession stand a chance?
No Easter eggs today – instead, here is a story that may provide food for thought.
Sunday, April 17, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Into Mid May 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What if you could know the future, had a chart of the stock market that showed a high probability trend forecast into the middle of May 2022. We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast right into the middle of May 2022.
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Saturday, April 16, 2022
Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid May 2022, AI Stocks Portfolio Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What if you could know the future, had a chart of the stock market that showed a high probability trend forecast into the middle of May 2022. We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast right into the middle of May 2022 -
Whilst my last market brief signaled to expect a strong April to be punctuated by an imminent correction into early April before the final forecast push higher into a May high that the following chart of the S&P better visualises of what I have in mind in terms of how the trend could play out.
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Thursday, April 14, 2022
Stocks Bear Market About to Resume? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Tthe stock market rally that had the the bulls salivating is probably coming to and end, and thus the direction of travel over the coming days should be lower as the Dow continues to target $31k. In terms of the bear market we will probably eventually see the Dow gravitate to below $30k, how low and in what time frame requires in-depth analysis which I will focus on next after housing. In the meantime, This is the type of trend I warned to expect, VERY VOLATILE as investors gyrate between FEAR and GREED. A sell off now could set the scene for a strong April i.e. off a higher end March / early April low rather than a break to new bear market lows.
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Thursday, April 14, 2022
What a Brutal Bear Market Brings Besides Crashing Stock Prices / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
"When social mood is negative, rallies, marches and protests become common events"
Sure, it's highly important to get out of value-losing risk assets before the onset of a big bear market.
No analytical method offers a guarantee; however, our experience shows that if you follow the message of the Elliott wave model, you'll have a good chance of protecting your wealth during the next financial downturn.
Having said that, there's more to a severe bear market than collapsing investment prices. Keep in mind that the shift from a positive to a negative social mood -- which brings on a financial bear market -- also brings on an array of societal problems.
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Wednesday, April 13, 2022
Stocks – Uncertainty Ahead of Quarterly Earnings Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks fluctuated following their recent decline on Tuesday and the S&P 500 index closed slightly below the 4,400 level. Is this still just a downward correction?The S&P 500 index lost 0.34% on Tuesday following its Monday’s decline of 1.7%. There is still a lot of uncertainty concerning the Ukraine conflict and Fed’s monetary policy tightening plans. On Monday it led to a more pronounced profit-taking action. However, the coming quarterly earnings releases season may be a positive factor in the near term. This morning the broad stock market is expected virtually flat following the Producer Price Index release.
The nearest important resistance level is now at around 4,475-4,500, marked by the recent support level and Monday’s daily gap down. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,350-4,400. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its March rally, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):
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