Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, October 24, 2021

Stock Market S&P500 Rallies Above $4400 – May Attempt To Advance To $4750~$4800 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Two main factors are driving the rally in the US stock markets recently; retail traders buying the dip, and Q3:2021 earnings data is starting to shake away the concerns that resulted in the recent market rotation. Combine these activities with the start of the Christmas Rally phase (which usually starts sometime after mid/late-October and carries through into early January), and we have the making of a moderately strong potential price rally in the US major indexes over the next 60+ days.

The $4550 Level Is Critical Resistance For The S&P500

I’m highlighting this ES Daily & Weekly chart pattern, below, to share with you how important it is to see the ES break above the $4550 level – the past high price peak. If the markets are going to start a new rally headed into the 2021 Christmas season, then we need to see the ES continue to rally and break above the $4550 level. It is critically important that price breach the $4550 level and attempt a strong move higher if this bullish momentum persists.

Thursday, October 21, 2021

Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 prompt recovery confirms my bullish run thesis – above 4,520, and given my Feb announced year end target of 4,700, fresh ATHs are approaching. Get ready though for quite some volatility as the current lull won‘t last indefinitely – I‘m not looking for VIX at 15 to be broken to the downside on a closing basis, and wouldn‘t be surprised by another noticeable correction once the current upswing runs out of steam somewhat above prior ATHs.

So far so good, and the stock market run continues without marked credit markets confirmation as the risk-on turn there isn‘t complete (yet). Treasury yields aren‘t retreating, yet tech is the driver of the S&P 500 upswing while value keeps treading water. Encouragingly, financials do well – it‘s cyclicals‘ time, and the open S&P 500 long position is very solidly profitable already.

Commodities upswing continues, and precious metals (silver leading gold), are in the tow. Less so when it comes to silver, which is inspired by the great copper run. As if indeed silver was sniffing the copper awakening soon – strong copper long profits keep growing too. Crude oil refused to yield much ground, and any timid intraday move down, gets swiftly bought. Similarly cryptos aren‘t looking back.

Monday, October 18, 2021

Inflation Peaked Again, Right? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 upswing continues, and is dealing with the 4,470 resistance – but the credit markets don‘t confirm. Still, that‘s rather a sign of stock market strength than of pending doom. The break back above the 50-day moving average has very good odds of sticking, and the sectoral performance bodes well for further advances. Financials and consumer discretionaries liked the daily upswing in yields while tech and real estates fared well regardless. VIX is likely to probe even lower values, it seems.

So, the open S&P 500 long position is working out well, and will likely continue to do so as higher yields just can‘t help the dollar rise. Inflation expectations are again turning up as we have moved from 1H 2021 Fed saying that inflation was transitory to the current phrase that inflation is transitory, but would last longer than we though. The next stage (arriving latest in Q1 2022) will likely be that inflation is sticky but we have tools to deal with it, followed by putting up a happy face that it‘s a good thing we have inflation after all.

Silver will likely keep leading gold, and the nearest target for the gold to silver ratio is 73. Crucially, miners keep confirming the upswing, and the copper example bodes well for silver as both metals are essential for the green economy, talking which means that crude oil is also likely to keep rising. Time to extend the commodity profits even more at a time when crypto gains keep doing great.

Reflation is slowly giving way to stagflation – GDP growth is slowing down while inflation isn‘t disappearing, to put it mildly. The copper upswing isn‘t so much a function of improving economy prospects but of record low stockpiles. Anyway, much more to look for in the commodities and precious metals bull markets that are likely to appreciate much more than stocks this decade.

Monday, October 18, 2021

Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached, but it is too early to call for an end to the bull market which started in March 2009.

SPX Intermediate trend:  An intermediate correction has started.  Let’s see if it evolves into something more serious.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Thursday, October 14, 2021

The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Stephen_McBride

Folks are freaking out about inflation.

The US government’s own numbers show prices are rising at their fastest pace in 12 years…

Google searches for inflation hit their highest level ever last month…

You’re likely feeling it in your pocket too.

Tried to buy a car lately? If you can get your hands on one, it’ll cost you 40% more than last year.

Home prices are rising at their fastest pace in more than 30 years. And here in Ireland, the average heating bill is expected to jump $500 this winter.

Monday, October 11, 2021

Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 reached my target, and then folded like a cheap suit – into an overnight correction, without attempting to overcome 4,420. As much as the prior advance was broad based, so was the retreat. Tech, value, credit markets – but the decline wasn‘t sold into heavily, and that means the bulls can recover. Still, sizable long profits had been taken overnight automatically, as neither the buyers nor the sellers got anywhere.

The non-farm payrolls thesis goes like this – unless the figure is truly disappointing, the Fed would have to execute on the practically promised Nov taper announcement. Treasury yields aren‘t though buying it, and have ventured higher on their own already, just as inflation expectations did. The debt ceiling has turned into a drama that wasn‘t as the can was kicked down the road into early Dec. The dollar didn‘t react much to the wrangling, but the selling will soon revisit the world reserve currency that is taking its time.

Commodities aren‘t budging, and cryptos continue appreciating while precious metals see encouraging, yet intermittent signs of life that would be delivered through monetary stance reevaluation (that equals no taking the foot off the gas pedal). More follow through is needed in gold and silver, and the white metal should lead the upswing. Copper did confirm it on a daily basis yesterday, but the red metal remains still internally weak – unlike oil that didn‘t even properly pierce the $75 level.

Monday, October 11, 2021

Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  The 4540 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached, but it is too early to call for an end to the bull market which started in March 2009.

SPX Intermediate trend:  An intermediate correction has started.  Let’s see if it evolves into something more serious.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Sunday, October 10, 2021

China / US Stock Markets Divergence / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

After having tracked each another quite closely since the pandemic low, Chinese stocks started to diverge during March 2021. The mania infected investors in US markets look to strong US GDP growth of +6.3% and strong earnings growth of 49% as reasons to ignore the lofty price earnings multiples, crazy valuations for trillion dollar corporations and even more for the mid cap tech stocks that are the darlings of the likes of ARK Invest, trading on bubble valuations that are literally straight out of the dot com bubble era where just as was the case then many don't even make a profit and a large percentage of which never will!

Friday, October 08, 2021

Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

The stock market is continuing to rally on FOMO fumes with the Dow up 1.5% for August as the market enters the seasonally worst month of the year for stocks, followed by October, and we all know what October's tend to herald, especially for markets that have run well beyond every expectation and value metric that one can think of which is true for a wide spectrum of stocks from our AI tech giants right through to the junk that populates the likes of Cathy Woods ARK Funds, metrics as I covered in recent analysis such as the Reverse REPO market RED FLAG, then we have margin debt soaring to well beyond all previous market highs which actually would be expected in nominal terms given inflation, however Margin debt has also soared to new highs as a percentage of GDP 3.9% vs 3% in 2000. Here's another flashing RED LIGHT that of the market cap of negative earning stocks exceeding that of the dot com bubble, so folks enjoy your FOMO whilst it lasts, I personally have battened down the hatches for the hurricane that's coming our way that will likely blow novice investors out of the water, especially those who are investing on margin!

Tuesday, October 05, 2021

Stock Market Correction: One More Spark to Light the Fire? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

With earnings season beginning in October, a profound correction of the S&P 500 could add fuel to the fire of the already well-supported U.S. dollar.

While the USD Index was largely flat on Sep. 30, the EUR/USD closed at a new 2021 low. And because the currency pair accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, its performance is material. Moreover, while I’ve been warning for months that the Fed and the ECB are worlds apart, the EUR/USD still hasn’t priced in the magnitude of the divergence.

Monday, October 04, 2021

NASDAQ Stock Market Head-n-Shoulders Warns Of Market Weakness – Critical Topping Pattern / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The unique technical setup in the NASDAQ over the past 30+ days is warning that the markets have lost momentum and may attempt to break below the $14,700, the Neck Line of the Head-n-Shoulders pattern. This unique price setup crept up over the past 20+ days as the US markets started to move away from upward price momentum as the Chinese and US market dynamics started to shift away from the continued reflation trade expectations. What does this Head-n-Shoulders pattern mean for traders and investors right now?

Friday, October 01, 2021

The Guide to Building a Design Portfolio Online / Stock-Markets / Investing 2021

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Building a design portfolio is much like the chicken-and-egg scenario: You need one to secure a job, yet without some professional experience to bolster your portfolio, you may struggle to find projects to display. It is not uncommon to feel stuck, regardless of whether you are a graduate, in a school, or in a position where you want to be hired. You can nonetheless find unusual ways to make work that is worth displaying when you break away from a customary attitude about how to create a portfolio. This article includes a few essential tips on how you can start with a portfolio website.

Thursday, September 30, 2021

Stock Market Gauntlet to the Fed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 was unable to sustain intraday gains, and both VIX and volume show the bears want to move. Arguably, the key market to watch, are the Treasuries – the 10-year yield continues rising, knocking on the 1.50% door again. On the day of Powell‘s testimony, that‘s quite a message to the central bank.

As I wrote yesterday:

(…)  Rising yields (the market believes in taper, it appears) across the board, with high yield corporate bonds holding up much better than quality debt instruments – I have seen stronger risk-on constellations really.

Importantly, the huge weekly jump in Treasury yields (the 10-year yield jumped over 20 basis points to 1.47%) failed to lift the dollar, which says a lot given the risk-off entry to the week. Meanwhile, the Fed jawboning continues, and the bigger picture leaves the ambitious Nov tapering suspect.

At the same time, the Fed‘s foot is to a large degree off the gas pedal, and even global liquidity is shrinking. New taxes are kicking in, job market woes are persisting, inflation isn‘t going away any time soon, challenged supply chains are forcing globalization into reverse, workforce is shrinking, GDP growth is decelerating, and no fresh fiscal initiatives are on the horizon – sounds like a recipe for stagflation.

The Fed can adjust (and even reverse) the tapering projections any time it pleases – it has played the job market card already. The dollar failing to gain traction though, is telling. Not even commodities as such are rolling over to the downside – actually, energies (oil, natural gas) have been the star performers (even within the S&P 500 sectors), and agrifoods are well positioned to do great as well. Copper and precious metals are feeling the short-term heat (still, the red metal offered a great entry point earlier today, making the open position profitable from the get-go), but the metals would stop reacting to the bad news while ignoring negative real rates (yes, transitory inflation is another myth the market place believes in) at some point. All roads lead to gold – inflationary and deflationary ones alike.

Wednesday, September 29, 2021

Stock Market Wishing Away Inflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 bears did indeed move, and the dip wasn‘t much bought. VIX with its prominent upper knot may not have said the last word yet, but a brief consolidation of the key volatility metrics is favored next. Even the overnight rebound (dead cat bounce, better said), is losing traction, prompting me to issue a stock market update to subscribers hours ago – fresh short profits can keep growing:

(…) Following yesterday’s slide, the S&P 500 upswing appears running into headwinds as credit markets keep putting pressure on the Fed. Rising dollar is thus far having little effect on commodities, and precious metals have retraced a sizable part of the intraday downswing. Tech remains more vulnerable than value, and this correction appears as not (at all) yet over.

While the dollar upswing hasn‘t been strongest over the prior week, higher yields are causing it to rise somewhat still. The commodity complex is remarkably resilient – the open long positions are likely to keep doing well – and I don‘t mean only energies. Copper is holding up in the mid 4.20s while precious metals are giving the bears a break – a tentative one, but nonetheless encouraging – as I have written yesterday:

(…)  the metals would stop reacting to the bad news while ignoring negative real rates (yes, transitory inflation is another myth the market place believes in) at some point. All roads lead to gold – inflationary and deflationary ones alike.

Tuesday, September 28, 2021

Reflation vs. Economic Stagflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 didn‘t give in to the opening weakness, and eked out minor gains. There was no selling into the close either – the table looks set for the muddle through to continue on Monday. Tech and value – uninspiring on the day, and the same could be said of the credit markets. Rising yields (the market believes in taper, it appears) across the board, with high yield corporate bonds holding up much better than quality debt instruments – I have seen stronger risk-on constellations really.

Importantly, the huge weekly jump in Treasury yields (the 10-year yield jumped over 20 basis points to 1.47%) failed to lift the dollar, which says a lot given the risk-off entry to the week. Meanwhile, the Fed jawboning continues, and the bigger picture leaves the ambitious Nov tapering suspect.

At the same time, the Fed‘s foot is to a large degree off the gas pedal, and even global liquidity is shrinking. New taxes are kicking in, job market woes are persisting, inflation isn‘t going away any time soon, challenged supply chains are forcing globalization into reverse, workforce is shrinking, GDP growth is decelerating, and no fresh fiscal initiatives are on the horizon – sounds like a recipe for stagflation.

Monday, September 27, 2021

China, India: Richer or Poorer? The Asian Pacific Financial Markets Forecast / Stock-Markets / Asian Economies

By: EWI

Dear Reader,

Today, both China and India are very different countries than 10 years ago. In so many ways, they are wealthier, safer and better.

But will these trends continue?

Our friends at Elliott Wave International are inviting you to get well-researched answers when you read this free excerpt ($59 value) from their September Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast.

See where China and India are in their Elliott wave patterns – and what that means for business and life in general.

Monday, September 27, 2021

Stock Market Bubble Valuations Dot Com 2000 vs 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US stock market has been content to rally to new highs with many stocks going to the Moon including most of our AI tech giants, a rally that I have been distributing into to the extent that I have now sold 80% of my holdings in the Top 6 AI stocks in my portfolio some of which I have been accumulating for over a decade (Microsoft). The primary objective of this analysis is the determine where we stand in terms of THE TOP, after all, all bull markets eventually do top either ending with a CRASH (1987) or a bear market (2000 and 2007). So what to hold and what to sell is the question I am asking myself, with a view to riding out a potential bear market / crash, where this analysis deploys a new automated metric of individual stock SELLING LEVELs so that one better knows where one stands in terms of ones portfolio, all in just one table. After all the risk we all fear is that of a 2000 style collapse that sends stocks lower for the next 20 years! Remember that bear market bottomed with a 85% collapse for tech stocks! Yes, one could say the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Apple had become dirt cheap, but that would have been a very painful and prolonged discounting event. So a case of balancing the risks of letting some stocks ride whilst cashing in those that will pay a heavy price for their over exuberance all whilst being aware of the AI mega-trend trundling along in the background.

Monday, September 27, 2021

Stock Market Retest of the High? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue until major cycles take over, and it ends.  The 4550 projection which had been in effect since the March 2020 low has now been reached, but there is still no sign of a major top.

SPX Intermediate trend:  A retest of the high is underway.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Saturday, September 25, 2021

Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US stock market has been content to rally to new highs with many stocks going to the Moon including most of our AI tech giants, a rally that I have been distributing into to the extent that I have now sold 80% of my holdings in the Top 6 AI stocks in my portfolio some of which I have been accumulating for over a decade (Microsoft). The primary objective of this analysis is the determine where we stand in terms of THE TOP, after all, all bull markets eventually do top either ending with a CRASH (1987) or a bear market (2000 and 2007). So what to hold and what to sell is the question I am asking myself, with a view to riding out a potential bear market / crash, where this analysis deploys a new automated metric of individual stock SELLING LEVELs so that one better knows where one stands in terms of ones portfolio, all in just one table. After all the risk we all fear is that of a 2000 style collapse that sends stocks lower for the next 20 years! Remember that bear market bottomed with a 85% collapse for tech stocks! Yes, one could say the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Apple had become dirt cheap, but that would have been a very painful and prolonged discounting event. So a case of balancing the risks of letting some stocks ride whilst cashing in those that will pay a heavy price for their over exuberance all whilst being aware of the AI mega-trend trundling along in the background.

Saturday, September 25, 2021

Markets Deflationary Winds Howling / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Without looking back, S&P 500 rallied in what feels as a short squeeze in ongoing risk-off environment. Daily rise in yields was not only unable to propel the dollar, but resulted in a much higher upswing in tech than value stocks – and that‘s a little fishy, especially when the long upper knot in VTV is considered.

The post-Fed relief simply took the bears for a little ride, and the Evergrande yuan bond repayment calmed the nerves. As if though the real estate sector was universally healthy – I think copper prices and the BHP stock price tell a different story. Things will still get interested in spite of PBOC moving in. The current macroeconomic environment will be very hard (economically and politically) to tighten into – have you noticed that the Turkish central bank unexpectedly cut rates?