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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Friday, October 05, 2018

Return of Stock Market Volatility: More Short term Weakness Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

As you would recall, I said in late-September that the stock market’s volatility would probably spike in October. Volatility was extremely compressed, which set the stage for an expansion in vol.

Yesterday, the stock market went down and volatility spiked a little.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Friday, October 05, 2018

SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

It has been a long while since the last Amigos update because frankly if the characters, images and shticks I invent to portray market status begin to wear on me sometimes I have to believe they may do the same to you. Consider that the 3 Amigos, SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Yields and the Yield Curve are slow movers that we usually view from monthly chart perspectives and well, sometimes you need to take a break and just let them do their thing over time.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 05, 2018

Stock Market’s Breadth is Weak: Stocks Will Crash! Just Kidding / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

We’ve done 2 kinds of stock market studies recently.

  1. The U.S. stock market’s own price action.
  2. The U.S. stock market’s breadth.

Market studies related to the stock market’s own price action have mostly been bullish.

Market studies related to the stock market’s breadth have been mixed. Some are bullish, while others are very bearish.

So what gives? Why are some breadth studies so bearish? (e.g. Hindenburg Omen)

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 04, 2018

Divergence Between Stock Market Indexes: What’s next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Small cap stocks have significantly underperformed large cap stocks recently.

Yesterday, I demonstrated that this divergence tells you that the bull market’s top is probably 1 year away.

However, this divergence typically means that the bull market’s rally still has some room left (e.g. approximately 6-12 months). As we all know, the stock market can go up a lot during the final 6-12 months of its bull market.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 04, 2018

How Much Longer Can the Stock Market Hold Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Graham_Summers

More and more “bells are ringing” for this market rally.

The microcap index, called the Russell 2000, typically leads the overall market in risk on/ risk off moves. With that in mind, what does the below chart suggest?

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 04, 2018

Quantitative Tightening Killing The Stock Market Is 'Fake News' / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

Recently, I read an article which stated that quantitative tightening is the “death knell” to the stock market. Can this be true?

So, allow me to show you why this is just another market fallacy which has been propagated by market analysts and the general media, and then regurgitated from one investor to another until it has risen to the point of “fact.” However, at the end of the day, this too is simply “fake news.”

While I am sure it would seem “logical” to most people that if the Fed takes money out of the system that the stock market would certainly drop. This premise is based upon the common belief that the cause of the market rally was the Fed’s quantitative easing process. So, if you remove the cause of the rally, then obviously the rally will reverse.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, October 03, 2018

Your invitation to Guy Cohen’s Hidden Money Masterclass / Stock-Markets / Learn to Trade

By: Submissions

Dear Reader,

Guy Cohen is a best-selling author…

A successful, self-made trader (who once turned £10,800 into £38,500 in 10 days)…

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 02, 2018

RUT vs. Dow: Stock Market Today is Just Like 1999? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market has made a breadth divergence recently. We examined the S&P 500’s breadth divergence yesterday. While this isn’t necessarily bearish, there are a cluster of signals in 2007 (near the previous bull market’s top).

We are seeing more and more of a breadth divergence.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 02, 2018

Expect Stock Market Q3 Earnings Price Surprises / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our focus is on developing and deploying very specialized price modeling and predictive analysis systems.  Our objective is to inform our members of these potential price moves and to assist them in finding successful trading opportunities.  We are alerting all of our followers of a potential move today, because we believe this move could frighten some investors as we expect price rotation as Q3 earnings data is released just before the November 2018 mid-term elections.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 02, 2018

Dow Stock Market Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Austin_Galt

Previous analysis updated – price traded higher as outlined, however, the expectation of a secondary high was wrong. On the plus side, this move to record highs has provided clarity going forward and the expectation of a significant decline remains unchanged.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 02, 2018

The ETNA Broker Back Office / Stock-Markets / Learn to Trade

By: Sumeet_Manhas

The Broker Back Office is essentially a web-based platform that brokers, dealers and designed to help automate the business processes that involve client interfacing, compliance reporting, and account custodian to regulatory requirements. The Broker Back Office essentially offers the broker-dealers more control over the regulatory authority and ease operations of the online brokerage and investment firms.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 01, 2018

Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks were virtually flat on Friday, as investors continued to hesitate following the recent record-breaking rally. The S&P 500 index remains close to its September the 21st record high, but will it resume its uptrend?

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.1% on Friday, as investors sentiment remained basically unchanged following some economic data announcements along with the third quarter's ending. The S&P 500 index has reached the new record high of 2,940.91 more than a week ago on September the 21st. It currently trades 0.9% below that high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1% and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 0.05% on Friday.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 01, 2018

Predicting Markets is Like Forecasting the Weather / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Last week, my forecast was for a dollar rally, (which we are in the midst of) a drop in the mining indexes into around Oct 4/8 (going down since Tuesday) and a top on Sept 21 on the SPX and down into around Oct 8th.

The lack of any real selling on the stock market since the Sept 21st top leads me to believe the bottom is going to be further out than I thought.  Now my forecast is for a bottom around Oct 17th (based on the 4 year cycle Oct ’14).  I still think we hold to a 5-6% decline on the S&P 500 (SPX 2792).
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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 01, 2018

Stock Market On the Cusp / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend –  Breaking to a new high has only delayed the anticipated correction into mid-October.
Last week’s action suggests that it may have already started.  

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, September 30, 2018

Will Stocks Keep Their Upward Momentum in October / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

VIX closed beneath Short-term resistance at 12.60, leaving it on a sell signal for a third week in a row.  It appears to be in a holding pattern for the end of the quarter.  However, the Cycles Model shows a likely surge in strength for the VIX through late October.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 28, 2018

Will the Fed’s Rate Hikes Choke the Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: EWI


Fact: The direction of interest rates does not determine the stock market's trend

Investing is hard. You, like many others, probably watch financial TV networks, read analysis, listen to talk shows and talk to fellow investors, trying to understand what's next.

One popular stock market "indicator" is interest rates. Analysts parse every word from the Fed, hoping they hear a clue about interest rates. They assume that falling rates means higher stock prices, while rising rates means lower stocks.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 28, 2018

Fed Quantitative Tightening is Stock Bull’s Death Knell / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The Federal Reserve’s unprecedented quantitative-tightening campaign is finally ramping to its full-steam speed in Q4.  That will destroy $50b per month of quantitative-easing money created out of thin air!  QT will need to maintain this terminal pace for over two years to meaningfully unwind the Fed’s grotesquely-bloated balance sheet.  This record tightening poses a dire threat to today’s QE-inflated overvalued stock markets.

This week traders are focused on the Fed’s 8th rate hike of this cycle, which was universally expected.  Ever since the FOMC’s previous meeting in early August, federal-funds futures have implied odds of another hike way up at 91% to 100% at this latest meeting.  But the Fed’s ongoing hiking pales in comparison with what it’s doing with its balance sheet.  One year after its birth, quantitative tightening is hitting full speed.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 28, 2018

The Russell 2000’s “inside month”. Ready for a Stock Market Christmas Present? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The Russell 2000 (small caps index) is on the verge of making a DOWN “inside month”. A DOWN “inside month” is when:

  1. The market goes down this month, AND…
  2. This month’s HIGH is below last month’s HIGH, while this months LOW is above last month’s LOW.
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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Fed Hikes Interest Rates, Stocks Fall, Just a Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks reversed their yesterday's intraday uptrend following the Fed's Rate Decision release. Will they continue lower today? Or was it just a quick downward correction before another leg up?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.2-0.4% on Wednesday, as investors reacted to the FOMC's Interest Rate hike announcement. The S&P 500 index has reached the new record high of 2,940.91 on Friday. It currently trades 1.1% below that high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2% yesterday.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Examining the Stock Market’s Late-cycle Behavior / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: Troy_Bombardia

Lots of traders and investors have been talking about the U.S. stock market’s “late-cycle” behavior recently. I think a lot of them are missing the more important point.

Yes, we are certainly in the late innings of this bull market. HOWEVER, the bull market probably has 1 year left.

For example, Citadel’s Ken Griffin told Bloomberg that the bull market rally has AT LEAST 1.5 – 2 years left. Citadel is one of the few hedge funds that consistently outperforms.

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