Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, September 02, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Trend Lines in Focus / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: We should be approaching an important high, with confirmation coming over the near term.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, August 31, 2020
Stock Market Expanding Wedge May Prompt Big Price Correction – Big Top Be Set Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:
- The Monthly S&P500 E-Mini Futures chart is revealing an Expanding Wedge pattern that has been setting up since Jan/Feb 2018.
- The VIX has set up a base and begun to move moderately higher over the past 7+ days – above the 20.00 point level and above the GAP created by the initial COVID-19 selloff.
- Our Custom Volatility Index chart warns of a “bull trap” set up, and we may see an 11% to 15% (or more) sell-off in the US and global markets if the Custom Volatility Index collapses below 10 over the next few weeks.
- Are These Technical Setups Warning That A Market Top Is Forming?
I want to bring this large expanding wedge pattern to your attention as my research team and I watch the markets continue to push to new all-time highs. This is a follow on to our research from our Special Alert report warning of Head-and-Shoulder patterns in some of our custom charts. We know it may sound a bit alarming to be the one to bring up a potentially devastating Bearish technical pattern at this time, but as technical traders, we must stay aware of risks even if they may not materialize. Trading is a process where we take measured risks in an attempt to generate profits over time. Risk becomes a very big issue if it is not properly managed – just as trading becomes very difficult if one doesn’t learn to take profits in good trades.
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Friday, August 28, 2020
Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
I’ve been posting exclusively for the last 2 months on the PM complex as I know that is most of our members main focus. Since the PM complex is now in consolidation mode I would like to take this time to show you the other bull market that has been taking place in the US stock markets. It is important for me personally to be on record as early as possible because it means nothing after the fact. The easiest trade to make is the one you do in hindsight, after the fact, as many like to say, I seen that move coming a mile away, again after it’s already half over.
I got on record on June 22nd of this year when I made a small post on the, Markets Update, that I do at the end of each day.
June 22nd post:
Before we look at today’s charts I would like to give you a short answer on why I’m taking on so many positions in the stock markets. The short answer for now is that I recently had an epiphany moment similar to the one I had on the US dollar back in 2014 when I discovered that massive 11 year base that was a fractal to the one that formed previously that most of you have seen many times.
Currently I’m seeing some patterns setting up in the stock markets that could lead to a very powerful rally the likes of what we’ve never seen before. I realize that many think I’m living in a fantasy land by being bullish on the stock markets which is fine because I don’t want to run with the herd. I want to go where no man has gone before. That sounds like a movie title.
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Thursday, August 27, 2020
High-Flying COVID-19 Stocks Sectors May Be Setting Up For A Market Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
- KEY HIGHLIGHTS: COVID-19 has hit many retail and commercial sectors hard, but boosts Technology and Automobiles.
- The NASDAQ 100 Technology Sector Index suggests the 100% Measured Move is complete.
- NASDAQ BNCHMK Computer Hardware Index has reached a lofty 150% upside Measured Move expansion.
- US Automobiles Index currently nearing a 135% upside Measured Move.
- Will these trends continue, or are they a temporary “transitional process”?
Tuesday, August 25, 2020
Continued Stock Market Topping Behavior / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: We should be approaching an important high, with confirmation coming over the near term.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, August 24, 2020
Stock Market S&P 500 Downswing Staring Us in the Face? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
After flirting with new all-time highs, stocks reversed on the Fed seeing slowing labor market and planning no yield control for now. Volume is slowly returning, prices aren't making material headway, which is lending the stock market a tired look.
Just as I wrote yesterday before being yet again profitably taken out of the earlier long position, it's one thing to be building a base, and lacking the strength to break higher with resounding force.
That's exactly the case with stocks, and the absence of bulls' strong conviction. Each passing day that lacks clues hinting at their return, is leaving the S&P 500 progressively more exposed and vulnerable to broad weakness or even a takedown without much in terms of an advance warning. That's certainly the case with no hints at a new punch bowl on the nearest horizon.
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Monday, August 24, 2020
Record Low Volatility Why Stock Market Investors Need to Fasten Their Seatbelts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
"Because financial markets are a fractal, present conditions never maintain"
Elliott Wave International's analysts have long noted that periods of low stock market volatility are almost always followed by periods of high volatility.
Granted, periods of low volatility can stretch for a while, yet a change occurs sooner or later -- and that shift is often dramatic.
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Sunday, August 23, 2020
Stock Market Massive Dual Head-and-Shoulders Setup / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
- Dual Head-and-Shoulders patterns warn of a potentially big downside move and new highs may be a trap for bulls
- Valuation levels suggest the broader US stock market is lagging
- Precious metals continue to warn of risks
- The market “melt-up” may be nearing an end
My research team is issuing a Special Alert Warning after the NASDAQ and SPY reached new all-time highs. Our research team identified a massive Head-and-Shoulders pattern (highlighted in BLUE) that originated in 2014, set up a “head” in 2018, and is now forming a “right shoulder” spanning 2019 and 2020. Additionally, a minor Head-and-Shoulders pattern is setting up on the right side of the chart below (highlighted in MAGENTA) that peaks in early February 2020 – just before the COVID-19 price collapse. Will this dual Head-and-Shoulders pattern prompt a massive downside price move over the next few weeks and months, or will the US stock market continue to rally higher – breaking the resistance level the shorter-term “head” (near $174) and keep going?
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Thursday, August 20, 2020
A Huge Opportunity For Emerging Market Stock Investors In 2021 / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Avi_Gilburt
Back in early February of 2020, I warned those willing to listen that “Emerging Markets Look Sick,” which was actually the title of my article.
In fact, when I posted this article in early February, I was looking for a bounce off the 42 support region in EEM, with a target back up in the 44/45 region, which was expected to be a short-able bounce. You can see this outlined in the chart I presented within that article.
As you can see, the EEM struck a low just below 42, and bounced back up to a high of 44.84. This set up the big decline of which I was warning, with an ideal target of the 1.00 extension on the chart in the 31 region.
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Wednesday, August 19, 2020
Our Proprietary ADL US Markets Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our friends and followers love it when we publish and Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling chart. These are very special charts because they show us what our proprietary predictive modeling system is suggesting is a likely outcome many weeks or months into the future. We wanted to highlight the YM ADL chart, below, because we published it near the end of 2019 in a research article suggesting a deep price correction was setting up for 2020. Additionally, you should be able to follow the YELLOW ARROWS on the chart to see how and where the ADL predictive modeling system suggested the YM price would target.
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Wednesday, August 19, 2020
Five Post-Covid Trends and Gold Price / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The disruptions caused by the pandemic of Covid-19 forced people, companies, governments, and organizations to challenge their basis assumptions about their ways of life and conduct. Some of them might be trivial such as more frequent and thorough hand-washing, but others are much more important, amongst them putting more emphasis on health that came suddenly under threat and social relationships that were so missing during the quarantine. So, the key question is when the epidemic is fully contained, what will be the “new normal” – and how it will affect the gold market?Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 18, 2020
Stock Market Top Forming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: We should be approaching an important high, with confirmation coming over the near term.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, August 17, 2020
Stock Market Waiting For Acceleration Phase / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Wednesday played out as a gap-up and grind-up type of session, as the bull train remains in full control.
Wednesday closed at 3369 in the ES, near the highs of the session and also at a new closing print high for the week. The entire day’s range was 3382.5-3326.50, including overnight hours. Wednesday was also a full retracement of Tuesday's losses, indicating that the quick backtest into daily 8EMA was stick-saved by the ongoing bulls.
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Monday, August 17, 2020
Has the Stock Bulls' Strength Returned? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks have yet again approached the all-time highs, but on volume that wasn't this low in months – that's a red flag. The stimulus talks haven't really progressed, but markets there is no jittery sentiment as the put/call ratio stubbornly clinging to its lows show.
But let's look under the hood of the stock advance as that fittingly illustrates all the above.
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Saturday, August 15, 2020
Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Stock Market Peak May Be Near / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels. This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.
This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at least) over the next 6+ months.
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Saturday, August 15, 2020
Stock Market, Asset Price Crash Dead Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
An All-Asset Price Crash (AAPC) might be the next “Wow! Can you believe it?”
In the meantime, whether it be stocks, bonds, gold, or oil, investors are licking their chops and counting their profits before they are booked. And, they have reason to gloat. Let’s see what all the noise is about.
STOCKS
Since the stock market lows less than five months ago, the Nasdaq Composite Index is up sixty-six percent. At its most recent intraday high of 11,126, it is nearly twelve percent higher than it was before falling by one-third this past March.
Any fears from investors about “technical damage” created by the previous price collapse have been swallowed up by the recent huge gains in the index. Here is what it looks like on a 5-year chart…
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Saturday, August 15, 2020
NASDAQ vs. DJIA: Does the Recent Divergence Matter? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
"The NASDAQ nearly doubled in the last 100 days of its rally."
This quote sounds like it's from 2020, doesn't it?
After all, since its March bottom near 6600, the NASDAQ has rallied to a new record high. Low to high, it has indeed "nearly doubled."
And yet, the quote above is not new. It's from the year 2000.
It appeared in Financial Forecast, a monthly publication by our friends at Elliott Wave International covering stocks, bonds, the dollar, gold, the economy and more.
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Friday, August 14, 2020
Stock Market Gap Fills Suggests Market Momentum May Stall / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Technical Analysis teaches us that price Gaps tend to be filled by future price action. This is not something new for many of our readers, whom may be familiar with our mantra ‘Gaps always get filled!’. The big Gap created near February 24, 2020, the start of the COVID-19 market collapse, has recently been filled in the SPY and the TRAN (Transportation Index). We believe this “filling of the Gap” may be a sign that the upside market trend may begin to stall and potentially reverse.
Yesterday, we highlighted the potential for a continued upside bullish trend in the SPY pushing possibly 2% to 4% higher based on our Measured Move technique in our article entitled “President Trump Signs Additional Covid Relief – What to Expect From the Markets“. Today, with the TRAN gapping higher to fill the February 24, 2020, price Gap, we believe the upside move may be exhausting itself and nearing a period of congestion or reversal.
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Thursday, August 13, 2020
Stock Market Correction Approaching / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: We should be approaching an important high, with confirmation coming over the near term.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 13, 2020
President Trump Signs Additional COVID Relief – What To Expect from the Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Up until the end of the last week, Republicans and Democrats were locked in heated negotiations regarding the size and scope of pending COVID-19 relief efforts. Our researchers had little hope that any negotiations would be successful given the two sides were so far away from one another in terms of wants and wishes.
On Saturday, August 8, 2020, President Trump signed a new Executive Order (and memorandums) to provide additional relief from the coronavirus that continues to spread in the US and around the world. These measures provide for as much as $400 in enhanced unemployment payments, and also offer Americans with temporary payroll tax relief, student loan deferments, and assistance to homeowners and renters.
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