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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, April 30, 2011

The Debt and Inflation Endgame Headwinds / Economics / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI have written repeatedly about the Endgame in the weekly letter, as well as in a New York Times best-seller on the same topic. By Endgame I mean the period of time in which many of the developed economies of the world will either willingly deleverage or be forced to do so. This age of deleveraging will produce a fundamentally different economic environment, which the McKinsey study referenced below suggests will last anywhere from 4-6 years. Now, whether this deleveraging is orderly, as now appears to be the case in Britain, or more resembles what I have long predicted will be a violent default in Greece, it will create a profoundly different economic world from the one we have lived in for 60 years. This makes sense, in that the prior world was defined by ever-increasing amounts of leverage. Outright reductions in leverage or even a significant slowing of the rate of growth is a whole new ballgame, economically speaking.

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Economics

Saturday, April 30, 2011

Has the Fed Decided to Fight Inflation Instead of Unemployment? / Economics / US Economy

By: Washingtons_Blog

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWilliam Alden writes in a Huffington Post liveblog entitled "Inflation Vs. Jobs":

Bernanke's argument about inflation isn't consistent, economist Paul Krugman says.

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Economics

Saturday, April 30, 2011

U.S. Core Inflation Remains Contained, FOMC Policy Stance is Safe / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2% in March after an upwardly revised 0.5% jump in February. A 0.4% increase in outlays of services and a 0.1% jump in purchases of durables lifted consumer spending, with a 0.3% drop in expenditures of non-durables were a partial offset. Real consumer spending is projected to advance by 3.0% during the second quarter after a 2.7% gain in the first quarter.

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Economics

Friday, April 29, 2011

Here Comes Stagflation! / Economics / Stagflation

By: Sy_Harding

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt’s official. The U.S. economic recovery is stumbling again, as indicated by Thursday’s report that GDP growth plunged to only 1.8% in the 1st quarter (from 3.1% growth in the previous quarter). And spiking oil, food, and other commodity prices have inflation on the rise.

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Economics

Friday, April 29, 2011

Goolsbee on the Slowdown in U.S. Economic Growth, Bernanke Concern Over S&P Rating / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAustan Goolsbee, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, spoke to Bloomberg TV's Hans Nichols about today's report showing the U.S. economy slowed more than forecast in Q1. Goolsbee said about the S&P's judgment about the U.S.'s triple A rating was "a data point" and he also said that 2011 and 2011 are "still looking fairly positive" for economic growth. Goolsbee appeared on Bloomberg Television's "Bottom Line."

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Economics

Friday, April 29, 2011

U.S. 2011 Q1 Real GDP Economic Growth One of the Three Smallest Gains of the Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal GDP of the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.8% in the first quarter of 2011, after a 3.1% increase in the prior quarter. Of the seven quarters of economic growth recorded in the current recovery, the first quarter's performance is one of the three readings which have been below 2.0% (see Chart 1).

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Economics

Friday, April 29, 2011

Dyseconomics: The New Macro Econ and The Greatest Economic Boom Ever / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Submissions

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCetin Hakimoglu writes: *warning the views of this summary may appear bunt, infuriating, and or egregious, but this is my analysis about why things are the way they (normative economic Natalie Bassingthwaighte s) versus a populist feel-good rant about the fed or shadow banking. *

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Economics

Thursday, April 28, 2011

IMF Forecast: Can China Really Overtake the U.S. Economy by 2016? / Economics / Global Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) "World Economic Outlook," China's output will surpass that of the United States in 2016 - only five years from now.

But don't worry. The IMF calculation is based on "purchasing power parity" (PPP), which does not reflect real money. It relies on projecting China's stellar growth rates five years into the future. And it relies on Chinese official statistics, which are more than a little questionable.

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Economics

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Rick Ackerman Abandons 30 Years of Deflation Mantra, Defecting to Hyperinflation Camp / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Gary_North

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEvery once in a while, some famous defender of a position switches without warning to the rival position. A famous atheist becomes a believer in God (Antony Flew). A famous Protestant becomes a Catholic (Richard John Neuhaus). A famous Chicago School economist becomes a Keynesian (Richard Posner). These events are unexpected, especially by the people who make the switch. When it happens, the former disciples are left high and dry.

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Economics

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Growth and Inflation Equals Growthflation / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Hampson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt's an awkward term, but its what we've got: growth AND inflation. And the US Fed yesterday made it clear they will continue to support both.

Growthflation makes for big nominal gains in stocks and commodities, even if less in real terms, and that means little incentive on the short side. Eventually we will see excessive inflation and overtightening kill growth, but right now we see strong leading indicators together with a continued policy of stimulus from the Fed (QE2 into the end of June, reinvestment of maturing securities for a few months after that, and most likely rates on hold until 2012), a recipe for more growth and more inflation. Essentially the Fed is keen to bring back those 7 million lost jobs (employment being the notorious laggard) and continues to talk down inflation.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Fed Wants Even Higher Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Axel_Merk

Today, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it will continue to purchase government securities as previously announced ("QE2"), including reinvesting principal payments from its holdings.

The FOMC downgraded its economic growth forecast, acknowledged inflationary pressures have moved from commodity inflation to core inflation, yet insists inflation remains too low. The Fed considers inflationary pressures to be transitory, but monitors the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Net Trade Deficits - A Leading Indicator of U.S. Economic Woes! / Economics / US Economy

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMany people think the root cause of the current U.S. economic problems is the sub-mortgage debacle.  I certainly think that is a major contributor both to those problems, and to the timing of them.  However, I believe (and have believed since 2005 when I first started to seriously study the U.S. and its evolving place in the world economic order) that what is happening now would have happened eventually absent the sub-prime crisis - albeit many years from now. 

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Economics

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

The Most Reliable Measure of Real Consumer Price Inflation? / Economics / Inflation

By: Bill_Bonner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe’ve always wondered why there is so much debate about the rate of inflation. It seems like such a simple thing to track. You go in the store. You buy a box of Wheaties. You write down the price. Next month, you do the same thing. What’s so hard about that?

But what if the box is smaller next month? What if the Wheaties are twice as good? What if you can get the same enjoyment from a box of Wheatie-Puffs at half the price?

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Economics

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Can We Give The Hyperinflation Thing a Rest? / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Federal Reserve is not going to push the economy into Zimbabwean hyperinflation. That's pure bunkum. The Fed's plan is to weaken the dollar to boost exports and to force China to let its currency appreciate to its fair-market value. The policy should help to lower the US's bulging current account deficit. By purchasing $600 billion in US Treasuries (QE2), the Fed effectively reduces the supply of risk-free assets, which sends investors into riskier assets like stocks and commodities. Is there an element of class warfare in the policy?

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Economics

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

QE2 and the Fate of the U.S. Economy / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: David_Galland

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBy David Galland, Casey Research : In the last few weeks, I’ve become particularly “attentive” to the intentions of Fed policy makers following the scheduled June end date for QE2.

This is no small matter; an actual shift in Fed policy – as opposed to the smoke and mirrors sort – could temporarily play havoc on equities and commodities markets alike. How could it be otherwise, when under QE2 the Fed has been writing checks to the Treasury in amounts of upwards of $100 billion a month since last November?

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