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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, July 02, 2011

The U.S. Economy Remains Mired In A Long-term Slump / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"We have involved ourselves in a colossal muddle, having blundered in the control of a delicate machine, the working of which we do not understand." John Maynard Keynes

Black Tuesday. On October 29, 1929, the stock market crashed triggering the worst economic collapse in history, the Great Depression. Thousands of banks and businesses failed, shanty towns sprung up across the country, and 15 million Americans (25% of the workforce) lost their jobs. President Herbert Hoover, who believed the turmoil would be over in a matter of weeks, opposed providing aid to the needy and unemployed. He supported the same policies as his GOP heirs in Congress today who seek to deepen the present crisis by cutting unemployment benefits, slashing fiscal stimulus and balancing the budget on the backs of workers.

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Economics

Friday, July 01, 2011

United States: Initial Jobless Claims Stuck at an Elevated Level / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims fell 1,000 to 428,000 during the week ended June 25. The four-week moving average has held around 426,000 since the week ended May 26. Essentially, firms have been unwilling to increase their payrolls. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, fell 12,000 to 3.702 million. The four-week moving average of continuing claims has held almost steady since April 2011 (see Chart 1).

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Economics

Friday, July 01, 2011

The Great Misdiagnosis of the U.S. Economy, Problem is Insolvency Not Liquidity / Economics / US Debt

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleImagine a doctor who administers an elaborate treatment for a man suffering from multiple broken bones, joint arthritis, and fallen foot arches. The quack doctor orders massive amounts of liquids as though he has a horrible case of dehydration. The inept doctor also permits unlimited freedom of movement around the hospital and its grounds to the patient, as part of the blunt treatment. The man still cannot walk right or breathe normally, has trouble lifting any significant weight with the arms, and stumbles around from shaky legs. But he has plenty of fluids and freedom to roam, urinating like a race horse. With the heavy mistreatment that is badly off the mark, he has a new problem, diarrhea and bloat together. His doctor is an idiot, incompetent, but still given respect.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Loses Ground / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 58.5 in June from 61.7 in the prior month.  The Expectations Index (72.4 vs. 76.6 in May) and the Present Situation Index (37.6 vs. 39.3) fell in June.  The soft labor market situation and rising food energy prices have played a role in reducing optimism of consumers. 

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Economics

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Economy and the Education Gap / Economics / Education

By: Fred_Sheehan

On June 22, 2011, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded a two-day meeting. This was followed by the obligatory press release. That statement was followed by a press conference featuring Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. CNBC, in the person of Maria Baritomo, interviewed three former FOMC members later in the day:

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Economics

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

3-D Economic Hurricane of Debt, Deficits and Demographics Heading for All Developed Economies / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday's Outside the Box is from an old friend, but one who is new to my readers. Jason Hsu is a partner at Research Affiliates and helped create the Fundamental Indexes with Rob Arnott. Starting at Cal Tech, he went on to a PhD in economics,and is now a professor at UCLA and teaches in China and Taiwan. Wins all sorts of awards and has won the Rising Star of HedgeFunds award. In short, he is really smart.

He sent me this piece last week, and I asked if I could use it. He graciously acceded. It is on what Jason and Rob call "the3-D Hurricane of Debt, Deficits and Demographics."

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Economics

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

U.S. May Consumer Spending Augurs Poorly for 2011:Q2 / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal consumer spending fell 0.13% in May following a downwardly revised 0.06% drop in the prior month.  Rising gasoline prices have adversely affected consumer spending; purchases of gasoline (nominal) declined in May, the first decline since November.  Purchases of cars have dropped for three consecutive months, reflecting the supply chain problem from the natural disaster in Japan that has reduced the availability of cars (see Chart 2). 

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Economics

Monday, June 27, 2011

Can the Fed and Economists Forecast the Future? / Economics / Forecasts & Technical Analysis

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBusiness Talk Radio host Gabriel Wisdom recently spoke with Pete Kendall, Co-Editor of EWI's Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Their discussion included a crucial but rarely asked question about economists and the Federal Reserve. Here's the relevant excerpt: 

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Economics

Monday, June 27, 2011

Inflation Asides / Economics / Inflation

By: Fred_Sheehan

A note from a reader: In 1977 I accidentally ran into a high school friend of mine who had taken an advanced degree in mathematics and statistical analysis. He was working for [Federal Reserve Chairman Arthur] Burn's Fed. He informed me that he was working on a new methodology of calculating the inflation rate. When I asked what it was based on he demurred saying it was "Classified Secret." I was truly stunned. He did imply that, when done, the new methodology would greatly reduce the reported value. Sure enough, during the Volcker Fed, the new methodology was introduced and has been modified since then to greatly reduce the reported numbers. It made the Volcker effort at controlling inflation seem much more effective than it actually was.

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Economics

Monday, June 27, 2011

Deflation by Dictatorship / Economics / Deflation

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere are two major considerations for the nation's economic and financial health as we enter the second half of 2011. Each can be addressed in the form of a question: 1.) Will the Federal Reserve embark on a third attempt at stimulating economic recovery through money printing; and 2.) Has the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009 peaked, and further, what will happen to the financial market once the 6-year cycle peaks in October? We'll attempt to answer both of these questions in the following commentary.

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Economics

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Chinese Economy Sputtering, Where Did the Trade Surplus Go? / Economics / China Economy

By: Washingtons_Blog

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt was tempting to believe that China was different. With its command and control economy with some of the trappings of free market capitalism, trillions in reserves, and abundant natural resources, many thought that China would "decouple" from the Western world's problems and sail into a prosperous future. However, despite its long history, exotic names and seemingly strong position, China cannot avoid the rules of economics which have applied to all countries throughout history.

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Economics

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Greece Debt Crisis Long-term Solution E.U. Unification Under One Leader? / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: James_Loong

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs Papandreou, Greek PM, plans to put together another austerity package worth more than €6.5 billion ($9.3 billion) by the end of the month, the protesters outside the parliament building, unwilling to accept the prime minister’s course of action, shouted: “Thieves, traitors. What happened to our money?”

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Economics

Friday, June 24, 2011

U.S. Jobless Claims, Firms Remain Reluctant to Increase Payrolls / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to 429,000 during the week ended June 18. The four-week moving average held steady at 426,250.  Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, fell slightly to 3.697 million from 3.698 million people.  The four-week moving average of continuing claims edged down to 3.709 million from 3.714 million.

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Economics

Friday, June 24, 2011

U.S. Dollar Repatriation and Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Jeff_Lewis

It’s starting to look like the corporate world will soon get another pass from Congress on paying its international tax bill.  Last proposed and passed in 2005, a dollar repatriation holiday would allow companies to bring dollars on overseas back to the United States with only a 5.25% tax rate.

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Economics

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Stealth QE3 Comes to Fruition, Soaring Inflation is Next / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Zeiler writes: U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke did what most everyone expected yesterday (Wednesday) at the culmination of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) two-day meeting - he left average Americans vulnerable to the pangs of higher prices and soaring inflation.

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