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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Back to the Future Recession 2010-11, Professors Teaching Economic Garbage / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMV=PQ
Financial Innovation: The Round Trip
2010-11: Back to the Future Recession
The Fed at the Crossroads
How Did We Get It So Wrong?
The Trend Is Not Your Friend When It Ends

This week we look at the second half of my speech from a few weeks ago at my annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla. If you have not read the first part, you can review it here. The first few paragraphs are a repeat from last week, to give us some context. Please note that this is somewhat edited from the original, and I have added a few ideas. You can also go there to sign up to get this letter sent to you free each week.

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Economics

Friday, April 24, 2009

UK Economic Crash, GDP Contracts by 1.9% / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK GDP contracted by a shockingly high 1.9% for the first quarter of 2009, which was set against consensus forecasts for a 1.5% contraction. Barely 2 days ago the Chancellor Alistair Darling forecast GDP contraction of 3.5% for 2009, 1.25% growth for 2010 and 3.5% growth for 2011. At the time I stated that Alistair Darling forecasts implied a miraculous turnaround and was set against my own forecast as of February 09 for 2009 GDP contraction of 4.75%, with peak to trough contraction of -6.3%.

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Economics

Friday, April 24, 2009

Global Economic Depression Unemployment- Learning from Japan / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Stathis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI ran across an interesting story about how Japan is using a somewhat innovative approach to deal with its own symptoms of what will eventually be recorded in history books as the global depression. http://www.nytimes.com..

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Economics

Friday, April 24, 2009

UK GDP Forecast to Contract by 1.5% for 1st Quarter 2009 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGDP data for the first quarter of 2009 to be released this morning is expected by the majority of economists to contract by 1.5% despite panic measures of zero interest rates and quantitative easing which however have yet to show through in economic data. The Market Oracle forecast as of Feb 2009 is for GDP contraction of 1.1% for the first quarter of 2009.

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Economics

Thursday, April 23, 2009

UK Unemployment Targets 3 Million This Year / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK Unemployment shot up by 71,000 for January 09 data to 12 year high of 2.1 million to officially stand at 6.7% of the workforce, 2.1 million is exactly on target as per my forecast of October 2008. However the more up to date unemployment claimant count data continued to soar, rising by 64,000 in March to 1.52 million, which is up more than 50% on the 970,000 figure of 6 months ago and acts as a leading leading indicator which signals much higher forward unemployment data as illustrated by the below graph

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Economics

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Global Financial Crisis: Bad Economics, Economists Do not Have a Clue / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Global_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleProf. John Kozy writes: Classical/neoclassical economics has consistently protected the wealth of the privileged; it has preserved the status quo. This is capitalism's intent, and the evidence for it is overwhelming. It has impeded the improvement of the human condition for two hundred years, and unless it is scrapped, it will continue to do so. No mere change in government can stop it.

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Economics

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Hyperinflation Is Coming / Economics / HyperInflation

By: LewRockwell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBob Murphy writes: People often accuse me of making “irresponsible” forecasts of massive price inflation. Even though they know that history is replete with examples of central banks ruining their currencies, these critics are sure that “it can’t happen here.” So in the present article I’d like to make the brief case for why we should all be very alarmed about the prospects for the U.S. dollar.

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Economics

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Gold Hits Short Term High as Global Recession Sparks Risk Aversion / Economics / Gold & Silver 2009

By: Adrian_Ash

THE PRICE OF PHYSICAL gold held above a one-week high early Thursday in London, recording its best Gold Fix in seven sessions at $894 an ounce as European stock markets flipped in and out of the red.

"It is risk aversion that is fuelling gold's rally," said one commodity analyst to India's Economic Times today.

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Economics

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Darling's Recession Debt Crisis Budget, Britain's £1.2 Trillion Public Sector Black Hole / Economics / UK Debt

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDarlings irresponsible budget resulted in a a net give away of £5 billion today, against borrowing of £175 billion for 2009 as against the Chancellors own forecast of barely 6 months ago of borrowing of £38 billion. Instead of positioning the countries finances to cope with the huge public sector budget deficit the government has instead focused itself on the next general election which is still a year away.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Debt Implosion Recession to Continue Into 2010 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed's $12.8 trillion of monetary stimulus has triggered a six week-long surge in the stock market. Think of it as Bernanke's Bear Market Rally, a torrent of capital gushing from every rusty pipe in the financial system. The Fed's so-called "lending facilities" have gone far beyond their original purpose which was to backstop a broken system. Now they're leaking liquidity into the equities markets and sending stocks soaring while the "real" economy sinks to the bottom of the fish tank. That's how the Fed does business these days; plenty of tasty crepes for the Wall Street kingpins and table-scraps for the lumpen masses.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Does Taxing Pollution Lead to Higher Prices and Lower Aggregate Economic Output? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Congress is about to consider legislation that could result in a tax on the burning of fossil fuels. Some argue that such a tax would result in increased prices of a wide variety of goods and services and reduced aggregate output. I do not want to get into the argument as to whether the burning of fossil fuels is contributing to global warming or whether global warming is globally harmful. Rather, I want to discuss the issue of taxing pollution in general. In other words, I want this to be a discussion about economic theory, not political-economic theory.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Deflation Returns to the U.K. / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInquiring minds are reading Deflation returns to Britain for first time since 1960.

Deflation returned to Britain for the first time in nearly five decades last month as prices measured by the retail price index (RPI) were lower than the same time a year ago.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Deflation Continues, Will the United States Become Another Japan? / Economics / Deflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNilus Mattive writes: Clearly, deflation remains the biggest near-term threat to the U.S. economy.At the consumer level, prices pulled back 0.1 percent during the month of March. That was mainly driven by declining energy prices, and in spite of the biggest jump in tobacco prices in at least 10 years. (The government initiated a large tax hike on smokes during April.)

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Economics

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Russian Economy Stagnating, No Growth or Contraction / Economics / Russia

By: Pravda

Russia’s Statistics Agency, Rosstat, published the statistics about the general state of affairs in the Russian economy during the first quarter of 2009. The information provides a clear picture of the future recession in the nation’s economy.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

UK RPI Deflation -0.4%, CPI Inflation 2.9% / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK RPI Inflation data of minus 0.4% for March represents real deflation in the official data. Whilst the Governments preferred inflation measure CPI recorded a smaller decline to 2.9% which still puts it well above the Bank of England's target rate of 2%. RPI deflation is not so surprising given the panic interest rate cuts from 5% at the beginning of October 2008 to just 0.5% by the last cut of March 2009, these cuts in interest rates coupled with quantitative easing aka "money printing" to drive down long-term interest rates and hence mortgage rates is resulting in real deflation for those with large mortgages of as much as minus 5%, therefore is providing for mini 'temporary' cash flow boom for those mortgage holders that have secure employment during the recession.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Looking for Signs of Economic Recovery From the Deepest Recession Since the Great Depression / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIs the economic recovery at hand? No, we still are mired in a recession that is going to be of the longest duration in the post-WWII era (the previous record was 16 months) and is likely to involve the largest annual average contraction in real GDP for a single year (the record to beat is a decline of 1.9%, which occurred in 1982). But there is a good chance that the worst for the U.S. economy in terms of quarterly contractions in real GDP is behind us, occurring in the fourth quarter of 2008. We currently are forecasting an annualized rate of contraction in real GDP of 3.8% in the first quarter of this year vs. the annualized rate of contraction of 6.3% in the fourth quarter of 2008. So, economic activity still is descending, but our forecast has the rate of descent moderating. We do not expect any growth in real GDP until the fourth quarter of this year.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Surging Money Supply, They Call This Deflation? / Economics / Deflation

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSo money-supply growth of 18% plus consumer prices inflation half-as-great again as the official target now equals deflation. Right...?

OH HORRORS! "Deflation hits UK economy for first time since 1960," screams The Telegraph. "UK falls into deflation for first time in 50 years," wails The Times.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Clown Economist Mankiw Defends Policy of Theft of Private Property / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn case you are new to this story, Gregory Mankiw, professor of economics at Harvard, proposed negative interest rates in It May Be Time for the Fed to Go Negative.

At one of my recent Harvard seminars, a graduate student proposed a clever scheme to [make holding money less attractive].

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Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Positve Signs for China Stock Market Investors, FXI / Economics / China Economy

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTony Sagami writes: Have you become more optimistic about the stock market? If you listen to the experts on CNBC, you might think that a great bull market is right around the corner.

The most commonly cited reason to be optimistic: Some variation of “business isn’t sucking as bad as it used to.”

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Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Oil, Cars and Consumerism and The Global Economic Crisis: Discussion On The Great Depression II / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDr. Raju M. Mathew writes: Global Economic Crisis - The world is under a great economic crisis. For the conventional economists it is only a Recession and not a Depression at all, for their partial analytical techniques, over-simplified models with unrealistic assumptions and over emphasis on data. It may take at least five years for them to realize that it would be a Great Depression and by that time it may be over. When Cybernetics is employed for the study of the working of the global economy as a whole with multi-sector approaches on the basis of the deeper understanding of Political Economy, we are forced to admit that this is not a simple Recession, but a Great Depression that requires not only economic stimulus but Ethical or Spiritual and Political Stimulus also to recover.

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