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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Sunday, October 31, 2010

U.S. GDP Growth is Softer than it Looks, Republican Majority Could Trigger Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt's Softer Than It Looks
Not Finer for the "99er"
Be Careful What You Wish For

"People only accept change when they are faced with necessity, and only recognize necessity when a crisis is upon them." - Jean Monnet, father of the European Union

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Economics

Saturday, October 30, 2010

China's Creative Accounting, Using Debt as an Instrument of Economic Growth / Economics / China Economy

By: Ellen_Brown

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChina may be as heavily in debt as we are.  It just has a different way of keeping its books -- which makes a high-profile political ad sponsored by Citizens Against Government Waste, a fiscally conservative think tank, particularly ironic.  Set in a lecture hall in China in 2030, the controversial ad shows a Chinese professor lecturing on the fall of empires: Greece, Rome, Great Britain, the United States . . . . 

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Economics

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Signs Hyperinflation Is Arriving / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Gonzalo_Lira

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBack in late August, I argued that hyperinflation would be triggered by a run on Treasury bonds. I described how such a run might happen, and argued that if Treasuries were no longer considered safe, then commodities would become the store of value. 

Such a run on commodities, I further argued, would inevitably lead to price increases and a rise in the Consumer Price Index, which would initially be interpreted by the Federal Reserve, the Federal government, as well as the commentariat, as a good thing: A sign that “the economy is recovering”, a sign that “normalcy” was returning. 

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Economics

Saturday, October 30, 2010

U.S. Economy Continues to Grow, But Momentum Not Enough to Lower Jobless Rate / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal gross domestic product (GDP) of the U.S. economy grew at annual rate of 2.0% in the third quarter, after a 1.7% increase in the second quarter. However, final sales advanced only 0.6% in the third quarter, following a mild 0.9% increase in the second quarter. As shown in chart 1, final sales show a decelerating trend after an increase of 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2009.

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Economics

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Double Dip Recession Delayed, Not Derailed / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe BEA Advance GDP for Third Quarter 2010 came in at +2.0%. However, Table 2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product shows that Change in private inventories contributed +1.44 while real final sales contributed a mere .6.

How sustainable is that?

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Economics

Friday, October 29, 2010

A Complexity Manifesto, Capitalists Continue to Increase Complexity Within Their Spheres of Production / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Ashvin_Pandurangi

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"Every limit appears as a barrier to be overcome" - Karl Marx (describing the world through a capitalist’s eyes)
There has been much debate since the global financial crisis of 2008 about what exactly happened and why. Some analysts believe that a period of deregulation in the financial sector, including the infamous repeal of Glass-Steagall (separating commercial and investment banking activities) [1], combined with reckless managerial decisions was the primary driver of a housing bubble, which led to a credit crunch and economic recession. Conservatives and libertarians tend to place the blame on government intervention in the housing and financial markets through Congressional legislation, such as the Community Reinvestment Act (putting pressure on banks to issue credit in low-income neighborhoods) [2], and the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy (targeting low interest rates during the tech and housing bubbles) [3].

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Economics

Friday, October 29, 2010

China's Massive Monetary Expansion and Crackup Boom / Economics / China Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChina is pointing the finger at the US, complaining about "Out of Control" US dollar Printing by the Fed.

Dollar issuance by the United States is "out of control", leading to an inflation assault on China, the Chinese commerce minister said in comments reported on Tuesday.

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Economics

Friday, October 29, 2010

Loss of Dollar Purchasing Power, The True Fed Inflation Targeting Bullseye / Economics / Inflation

By: Richard_Daughty

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen it comes time to put the current crop of economic blowhards and lunatics on trial for the disaster their insanely-bad advice caused, this quote from Frederic Mishkin, former Fed governor and who is directly responsible for the mess we are in, may come in handy.

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Economics

Thursday, October 28, 2010

U.S. Employment is Main Focus of Fed QE Policy / Economics / Employment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed is widely expected to announce the details of the second round of QE (quantitative easing) following its 2-day meeting ending on November 3.  There are more questions than answers about the nature of QE2 at the present time.  Let's start with QE1 to put things in perspective; QE1 was in place from December 2008 to March 2010.  The Fed purchased a sum of $1.725 trillion worth of agency bonds ($175 billion), mortgage-backed securities ($1.25 trillion) and Treasury securities ($300 billion).  The outcome was a larger Fed balance sheet reaching $2.3 trillion as of March 2010 (see chart 1). 

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Economics

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Paul Krugman Challenged to Debate on Keynesian vs Austrian Business Cycle Theory / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs many readers already know, last week I launched a campaign to pressure Paul Krugman into debating me. In just the first week, this sophomoric 7-minute YouTube video has generated $35,000 in pledges. At this point, I don't see how Krugman will ever live this down until he debates me on Austrian versus Keynesian business-cycle theory.

In the present article, I'll give a little background of how I came up with the idea. Then I'll point out the broader implications of this episode, which go well beyond my jousting with Krugman.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Economies Pummeled by the Strong Arm of the Financial Ruin / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Richard_Daughty

Casey's Gold & Resource Summit reports that "Casey Research's own resident economic genius Bud Conrad" is the "nonpareil whirling dervish of data points," which is an odd descriptor, and I interpret it as meaning a guy who knows how to send you into cardiac arrest with "a mind-boggling sequence of charts and graphs covering virtually every aspect of the economy."

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Economics

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Global Banking System, Is There Life After Sudden Death? / Economics / Global Financial System

By: Professor_Emeritus

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe debate on the Real Bills Doctrine (RBD) within the sound money movement is important because the international banking system, financing world trade as well as domestic trade, is facing its greatest challenge in all history. Indeed, it may succumb to the sudden death syndrome, and all efforts to resuscitate it may fail. Worse still, banks have by now acquired such a bad name, and they have earned such a universal hatred for their role in the global destruction of capital and of individual savings, that any new financial institution in whose name the word "bank" figures may be rejected out of hand by the people, should anyone try to make a fresh start in the banking business after the collapse.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Poststeroid Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Vitaliy_Katsenelson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDuring the ’80s and ’90s, ignorance was bliss. The global economy was growing nicely, and analyzing it (or even paying attention to market cycles) seemed like a waste of time, as the economy came in only three flavors: good, great and awesome. Even if you misread the flavor, the downside was that you’d just make a little less money.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Inflation in the Real World / Economics / Inflation

By: Casey_Research

Jake Weber, Editor, The Casey Report writes: As is often the case, there is a big difference between what the government statistics are reporting and what’s going on in the real world. According to the most recent inflation reading published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), consumer prices grew at an annual rate of just 1.1% in August.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

UK Economic Boom Continues, GDP Q3 2010 +0.8%, Academic Economists Remain Clueless / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe UK economic boom continued into the third quarter of 2010 with GDP jumping by 0.8% (+3.2% annualised), that itself followed on from an eye wateringly high growth rate of 1.2% for Q2, both of which were missed by the academic economists that populate the financial institutions and journalists / pseudo economists in the mainstream press that only hours before were expecting growth of 0.4% (1.6% annualised), which despite the economy booming still continue with mantra's based on theoretical models for a none existant double dip recession whilst the real economy literally booms.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Should the Fed Be Concerned about Low Price Inflation? / Economics / Inflation

By: Frank_Shostak

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn its September 21 meeting, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee expressed concern that the rate of inflation is far too low. According to the minutes some members of the FOMC have said,

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Economics

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

More U.S. Inflation Fears / Economics / Inflation

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

Inflation fears are heating up this week as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a speech in Boston on Friday, causing further frantic flight into gold by those fearful of the coming “quantitative easing” the Fed is set to deliver in November. Others who view gold as a short-term investment engaged in immediate profit-taking after Bernanke's speech.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Debt Default or Hyperinflation, U.S's Only Two Options / Economics / US Debt

By: Richard_Daughty

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI thought I had seen and heard it all after the ludicrous Ben Bernanke, asinine chairman of the Federal Reserve, announced that the official (and thus a lie!) 2% inflation in prices was too, too low, and he wanted higher inflation because, somehow, in some weird little fantasy world that only he and other neo-Keynesian econometric cyber-nerds can see, higher inflation is “consistent with the mandate of the Fed” to achieve stable prices (zero inflation)! Hahahaha!

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Economics

Monday, October 25, 2010

Is Today's U.S. Unemployment Rate Higher than During 1930's Great Depression? / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Washingtons_Blog

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePulitzer Prize-winning historian David M. Kennedy notes in Freedom From Fear: The American People in Depression and War, 1929-1945 (Oxford, 1999) that - during Herbert Hoover's presidency, more than 13 million Americans lost their jobs. Of those, 62% found themselves out of work for longer than a year; 44% longer than two years; 24% longer than three years; and 11% longer than four years.

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Economics

Monday, October 25, 2010

U.S. Fed Setting the Stage for Hyperinflation? / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: The U.S. government wants to stimulate growth in the moribund economy by stoking the fires of inflation. But by leaving interest rates low and buying up bonds - a policy known as quantitative easing (QE) - the U.S. Federal Reserve risks debasing the dollar, which could lead to a prolonged period of hyperinflation that would send prices skyrocketing.

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