Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
How Governments Will Default on their Sovereign Debt / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
As I am traveling in Europe for a few more days, it seems appropriate to review the very fascinating work of Arnuad Mares of Morgan Stanley in London. He poses the very provocative question: "Ask Not Whether Governments Will Default, but How?" and comes up with some very interesting statistics. He suggests that simply looking at debt to GDP misses the point and offers four other ways we should also evaluate sovereign debt risk. This is a very worthy contribution to Outside the Box.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Debt Deleveraging Deflation Deception / Economics / US Debt
By: Michael_Pento
There is wide agreement among economists and the financial media that our lackluster economic performance stems from continued "deleveraging" among consumers and businesses. Although it is certainly true that after decades of overly speculative borrowing, individuals and corporations are paying down debt, rebuilding their savings, and generally repairing their respective balance sheets. But these activities cannot be faulted for our economic malaise.
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Monday, September 20, 2010
The Empirical Case against Government Stimulus / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
Economists in the Misesian tradition stress the primacy of theory in the social sciences. When trying to figure out the Great Depression, for example, we can't approach the topic with a blank slate and let the facts "speak for themselves." Mises argued that in order for us to even know which facts to consider as relevant, we need to have an antecedent body of deductive insights.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Urgent Steps to Save U.S. Economy From Debt Collapse / Economics / US Debt
By: Larry_Edelson
In a few moments, I am going to release to you — and the general public — the broad brushstrokes of my …
10-Step Proposal To Save America From The Fatal Blows Of A Debt Collapse … And Give Control Of The U.S. Economy Back To The American People.
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Monday, September 20, 2010
Urgent Lessons from Japan on Economy, Debt and Stocks Bear Market / Economics / US Debt
By: Martin_D_Weiss
Imagine a world where the economy never emerges from recession.
Imagine a time and place in which economists talk first of a double-dip recession, then about a triple-dip recession … and ultimately admit the dire reality of a long, multi-decade depression.
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Monday, September 20, 2010
The Myth of Debt Deleveraging Deflation / Economics / US Debt
By: Brady_Willett
Background: The reason the ‘net worth’ data is an important consideration today is self evident: unable to explain why the outlook for consumer spending is positive given that debt service costs are hitting record highs, savings are near record lows, and wages are failing to keep pace with inflation, optimistic economists point to the consumer’s balance sheet and calmly conclude that everything will be all right. And although these analysts have indeed been right for a long time (16-years and counting), there is ample evidence brewing to suggest that the US consumer is about to fall down.. -
August 21, 2007 - Forget Peak Oil, Peak Net Worth is the Real Danger
Monday, September 20, 2010
U.S. Consumers and Business are Not Debt Deleveraging, They are Going for Broke / Economics / US Debt
By: Washingtons_Blog
Everyone knows that the American consumer is deleveraging ... living more frugally, and paying down debt.
Right?
Well, actually, as CNBC's Diana Olick pointed out in April, many consumers are stopping their mortgage payments, and then blowing the money they would usually pay towards their mortgage on luxuries:
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Sunday, September 19, 2010
United States Economy Caught in the Jaws of Death, Housing Market Mantra / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Gordon_T_Long
The United States is facing both a structural and demand problem - it is not the cyclical recessionary business cycle or the fallout of a credit supply crisis which the Washington spin would have you believe.
It is my opinion that the Washington political machine is being forced to take this position, because it simply does not know what to do about the real dilemma associated with the implications of the massive structural debt and deficits facing the US. This is a politically dangerous predicament because the reality is we are on the cusp of an imminent and significant collapse in the standard of living for most Americans.
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Sunday, September 19, 2010
World Economic and Financial System Trending Towards a Serious Breakdown by Spring 2011 / Economics / Financial Crash
By: Global_Research
GEAB writes: As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 last February in the GEAB No. 42, the second half of 2010 is really characterized by a sudden worsening of the crisis marked by the end of the illusion of recovery maintained by Western leaders (1) and the thousands of billions swallowed up by the banks and the economic « stimulation » plans of no lasting effect. The coming months will reveal a simple, yet especially painful reality: the Western economy, and in particular that of the United States (2), never really came out of recession (3). The startling statistics recorded since summer 2009 have only been the short-lived consequences of a massive injection of liquidity into a system which had essentially become insolvent just like the US consumer (4).
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Asia and the Financial Crisis, Asset Price Bubbles and Capital Controls / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Global_Research
Kavaljit Singh writes: Capital controls are back in fashion. In June 2010, South Korea and Indonesia announced several policy measures to regulate potentially destabilising capital flows, which could pose a threat to their economies and financial systems.
South Korea it announced a series of currency controls in June to protect its economy from external shocks. Indonesia quickly followed suit when its central bank deployed measures to control short-term capital inflows. In October 2009, Brazil announced a 2 per cent tax on foreign purchases of fixed income securities and stocks. Taiwan also restricted overseas investors from buying time deposits.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Trapped in the Basel III Credit Contracting Death Spiral / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Ellen_Brown
The stock market shot up on September 13, after new banking regulations were announced called Basel III. Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief. The megabanks, propped up by generous taxpayer bailouts, would have no trouble meeting the new capital requirements, which were lower than expected and would not be fully implemented until 2019. Only the local commercial banks, the ones already struggling to meet capital requirements, would be seriously challenged by the new rules.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Greenspan's Dark Economic Cloud / Economics / US Debt
By: Gary_North
In an interview at the Council on Foreign Relations (Sept. 15), Greenspan called for higher taxes. This got headlines. But he said a lot more than this.
When a high-level national figure speaks on the record at the CFR, he usually says nothing radical. He is brought there to speak to the members, but he is also speaking to the media. There are rarely any big surprises at one of these meetings.
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Sunday, September 19, 2010
UK Government Stealth Debt Default Continues at Minimum Rate of 3% per Year / Economics / UK Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This article is part of a series towards an updated UK interest rate trend forecast. The UK government continues to stealth default on its government debt at the minimum rate of 3% per annum, a price that is being paid for by all workers and savers. The population of Britain has been successfully conditioned by successive governments deploying the pseudo science of economics that appears to exist purely to enable governments to psychologically manage the expectations of their populations such as coming to believe that the stealth sovereign debt default trend is good for them.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
The Chances of a Double Dip Economic Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: John_Mauldin
I am on a plane (yet again) from Zurich to Mallorca, where I will meet with my European and South American partners, have some fun, and relax before heading to Denmark and London. With the mad rush to finish my book (more on that later) and a hectic schedule this week, I have not had time to write a letter. But never fear, I leave you in the best of hands. Dr. Gary Shilling graciously agreed to condense his September letter, where he looks at the risk of another recession in the US.
I look forward at the beginning of each month to getting Gary's latest letter. I often print it out and walk away from my desk to spend some quality time reading his thoughts. He is one of my "must-read" analysts. I always learn something quite useful and insightful. I am grateful that he has let me share this with you.
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Saturday, September 18, 2010
Economics vs. Fakeonomics, Free Trade Skepticism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ian_Fletcher
We skeptics of free trade are used to being told, “You don’t understand economics.” In fact, one major reason I wrote the book Free Trade Doesn’t Work was simply to expose, once and for all, that there do exist extremely serious and intellectually reputable arguments, within the confines of accepted mainstream economics, which question free trade. And indeed they exist.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 17, 2010
The Long Road to Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: David_Galland
David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report writes: Last week the government released the latest unemployment data. Bloomberg, always ready to roll up the sleeves to help its friends in government (get reelected), was running a headline that “Companies in U.S. Added 67,000 Jobs in August.”
While I haven’t had time to go through the minutiae of the report, I find myself scratching my head at Mr. Market’s rather positive reaction to the report, given the bullet points:
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Friday, September 17, 2010
Does the U.S. Economy Need Another Economic Stimulus Package? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Frank_Shostak
Despite the massive fiscal stimulus package of nearly $800 billion approved by Congress early last year and trillions of dollars pumped by the Fed, the rally in various key economic data seems to be coming to an end.
After falling to 32.5 in December 2008, the ISM manufacturing index peaked at 60.4 in April of this this year.
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Friday, September 17, 2010
H.G. Wells's Socialist Critique of Capitalism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Paul A. Cantor writes: "One might wonder whether these intellectuals are not sometimes inspired by resentment that they, knowing better what ought to be done, are paid so much less than those whose instructions and activities in fact guide practical affairs. Such literary interpreters of scientific and technological advance, of which H.G. Wells, because of the unusually high quality of his work, would be an excellent example, have done far more to spread the socialist ideal of a centrally directed economy in which each is assigned his due share than have the real scientists from whom they have cadged many of their notions." —Friedrich Hayek, The Fatal Conceit
Friday, September 17, 2010
Brazil's Debt Crisis, if it Does Not Defend Itself Against Financialization / Economics / Brazil
By: Michael_Hudson
The post-1945 mode of global integration has outlived its early promise. It has become exploitative rather than supportive of capital investment, public infrastructure and living standards.
In the sphere of trade, countries need to rebuild their self-sufficiency in food grains and other basic needs. In the financial sphere, the ability of banks to create credit (loans) at almost no cost on their computer keyboards has led North America and Europe to become debt ridden, and now seeks to move into Brazil and other BRIC countries by financing buyouts or lending against their natural resources, real estate, basic infrastructure and industry. Speculators, arbitrageurs and financial institutions using “free money” see these economies as easy pickings. But by obliging countries to defend themselves financially, their predatory credit creation is ending the era of free capital movements.
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Friday, September 17, 2010
Japan’s Economic Problem Is Bigger Than Yen / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Dian_L_Chu
After much speculation and many flying rumors, Japanese government stepped in on Wednesday, Sep. 15 and intervened--sell yen, buy dollar--for the first time in six years. The yen had risen about 10% against the dollar this year, and just reached yet another new 15-year high against the US dollar, an eight-year high against the euro, on Tuesday, Sep. 14.