Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, October 09, 2010
September Employment Situation Data Reinforces Expectations of QE2 on November 3rd / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.6% in September, virtually steady for four straight months. The unemployment rate was 5.0% in December 2007 when the recession commenced. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009 and the cycle low for the expansion that ended in December 2007 is 4.4% in March 2007.
Friday, October 08, 2010
U.S. Economy Has Failed to Recover, Fed Prepares to Pump the Economy / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Peter_Schiff
Since the US economy has failed to recover as widely predicted, pressure on the Federal Reserve to conjure a solution has increased. In fact, the Fed now faces the hardest choices in its history. It can either redouble its past efforts to re-inflate America's bubble economy (risking the destruction of the US dollar) or it can stop pumping and let the economy deflate to a self-sustaining level. Unfortunately, both choices guarantee severe economic pain - but only one offers the possibility of ultimate success.
Friday, October 08, 2010
Fantastic Economic News, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Decline by 95,000 / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Today we have fantastic news from the BLS that the economy shed 95,000 jobs, far weaker than the economists' consensus expectation of a mere 5,000 drop.
Moreover, part-time workers for economic reasons increased by a whopping 612,000 workers, much higher than an recent numbers and also higher than a year ago. The effect of rising part-time work is the effective unemployment rate shot up .4% to 17.1%
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Friday, October 08, 2010
No Economic Recovery, Stimulus Spending and Intended Consequences? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Andy_Sutton
As was generally expected, this morning’s employment situation report gave another bundle of evidence to suggest that there is in fact no recovery, never was, and that several trillion dollars of ‘stimulus’ has disappeared down a rat hole of greed. In typical fashion, the mainstream press tried yet again to put a positive spin on a negative reality, pointing to the fact that we should rest easy; the Fed is going to buy government bonds to save the day. It is in total wonderment that I listen to these happy expectations and can only guess if these people know what they’re even wishing for. Let’s look at a few examples.
Friday, October 08, 2010
Less Government Means Less Economic Trouble / Economics / Government Spending
By: Robert_Higgs
Though our current economic troubles are complex, many mainstream economists have endorsed the simplistic Keynesian theory that massive government spending will produce jobs and prosperity.
Friday, October 08, 2010
Economic Depressions, Their Cause and Cure / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Murray_N_Rothbard
We live in a world of euphemism. Undertakers have become "morticians," press agents are now "public relations counsellors" and janitors have all been transformed into "superintendents." In every walk of life, plain facts have been wrapped in cloudy camouflage.
No less has this been true of economics. In the old days, we used to suffer nearly periodic economic crises, the sudden onset of which was called a "panic," and the lingering trough period after the panic was called "depression."
Thursday, October 07, 2010
IMF Warns of Slower Economic Growth As Currency War Rages On / Economics / Global Economy
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes:
Meetings of the Group of Seven (G-7) countries in Washington this week could feature a clash of views that have sparked an international currency war even as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that growth in developed economies is slowing.
The conflict represents a fundamental disagreement about how to sustain the global economic recovery among countries that prefer flexible exchange rates like the United States, and others that are resisting calls to allow its currency to appreciate, like China.
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Thursday, October 07, 2010
Quantitative Easing Inflation Expectation Noise / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Scott Grannis on Seeking Alpha has written a pair of interesting articles regarding inflation expectations and Quantitative Easing. Grannis thinks that Quantitative Easing is working. I don't, but that debate depends on the definition of "work".
Thursday, October 07, 2010
U.S. Economy Entering Critical Deflation Phase / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
As the biggest credit bubble in history continues to shrink, consumer prices have stayed flat over the past several months, meaning there is no sign of inflation to come, despite growing commitments from the U.S. government.
Thursday, October 07, 2010
No Way Out of the Greater Inflationary Economic Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Casey_Research
Doug Casey, Casey Research writes: I really dislike sounding inflammatory. Saying that things are going to go terribly wrong runs a risk of being classed with those who think the world will end in December 2012 because of something Nostradamus or the Bible says, or because that's what the Mayan calendar predicts.
Wednesday, October 06, 2010
Bernanke To Light the Fuse on Monetary Inflation Bomb / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_North
It is always a good idea to pay attention to new words or phrases that seem to have no connection with any previous word or phrase, and which are not self-evident. Such a phrase these days is "quantitative easing." When we hear a phrase like this, we should think through the implications of what this phrase probably means.
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
Bernanke vs. Kondratieff: Round QE2 vs Global Long Wave Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: David_Knox_Barker
In Round QE1 2007-2009 of the unfolding global financial crisis, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke fought a remarkable round. It was the global financial and economic heavyweight fight of his life. Bernanke’s effort temporarily prevented a global deflationary debt and economic demand collapse in the unfolding Kondratieff winter season. It remains to be seen whether QE1 and the trillions it will cost U.S. taxpayers will change the ultimate outcome. The fight is still very much on, with the opponents briefly taking a breather in their respective corners. The bell is now ringing. Round QE2 has begun.
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
Emerging Market Infrastructure Set to Drive Demand for Commodities / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: John_Derrick
Every week roughly 1 million people are born in or migrate to cities in emerging markets all over the world. By 2030, the global urban population is expected to grow by 1.6 billion people and account for 60 percent of all people on Earth, according to the United Nations.
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
The Deep Cause Of The Great Financial Crisis: The Peace Diktat Of Versailles / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Professor_Emeritus
According to a recent news item, not widely circulated, after more than 90 years of slavery, on October 3, 2010, Germany made the final payment for its World War I debt. This event is highly symbolic. It gives me great pleasure to be one of the first to congratulate you, literally hours after the German people were finally freed from debt slavery.
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
Chinese Factory Workers Fast and Efficient Beyond Beijings Yuan Policy / Economics / China Economy
By: Dian_L_Chu
This video, courtesy of China Hush, illustrates one reason why factory jobs worldwide have shifted to China. Chinese workers have a lot more to contend with than just Beijing's yuan policy. Washington and many experts' belief that a totally floating yuan would bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. woudl most likely prove to be an over-simplistic view bound to fail.
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Monday, October 04, 2010
Consumer Price Index (CPI), A Standard of Living Problem / Economics / Inflation
By: Chris_Riley
The CPI is a cost of living indicator, calculated with a basket of goods that varies over time. As it is attempting to measure price changes in a typical consumption basket, it does not compare price changes across a like-for-like basket of goods over time. This has caused large under measurement of the true rate of price inflation when living standards have been falling and over measurement of price inflation when living standards have been rising. This is a major problem, as we need to measure price changes whilst holding the standard of living constant i.e. across a fixed basket of goods. But that would invalidate the CPI as a measure of change in the cost of living.
Monday, October 04, 2010
Blind to the Flaws of Keynesian Economic Theory / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
Recently the pundits and bloggers have been arguing about the empirical case for (and against) the Obama Administration's $800 billion stimulus package. I have already focused on Paul Krugman's humorous role in this debate, and today we'll get some chuckles courtesy of Princeton economist Alan Blinder.
Monday, October 04, 2010
US Economy Demand Deficiency is Not the Problem and Keynesianism is Not the Solution / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gerard_Jackson
In trying to explain the state of the American economy the commentariat is still blaming the lack of consumer demand. But as the classical economists always pointed out when presented with this fallacy, consumption is never a problem but production is.
(Although I have made use of classical economists numerous times, drawing attention their correct views on production and consumption, I should make it clear that classical economists were far from being in agreement on every important point of theory, especially where value, prices and costs entered the discussion.)
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Saturday, October 02, 2010
America Trending Towards and Inflationary Economic Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
There is no question that those who control our government from behind the scenes are bound and determined to take over the $6 trillion in private pension plans. Whether they’ll be successful remains to be seen. The Department of Labor wants to force all IRA’s and 401k’s into the arms of a corporate fascist government, that knows better what is good for you, than you do. You would exchange your hard earned investments for a guaranteed, government annuity that is not worth the paper it is written on.
We have been writing about this for more than a year, but as usual few are listening. People say the government won’t and can’t do that. Government can do anything it wants.
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Saturday, October 02, 2010
The Morality of Chinese Econimic Growth, Crude Oil at $125 a Barrel, Gasoline at $5 / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Oil at $125 a Barrel, Gasoline at $5
David Rosenberg and Capacity Utilization
Gary Shilling: Commercial Real Estate and Employment
The Morality of Chinese Growth
This week I am at a conference in Houston. I must confess that I don’t attend many of the sessions at most conferences where I speak. But today, the guys at Streettalk Advisors have such a great lineup that I am there for every session. But it’s Friday and I need to write. The solution? This week you get a “best of” letter. The best ideas I’ve heard and the best charts I’ve seen at this conference. Then we close with two short but very thoughtful essays from Charles Gave and Arthur Kroeber of GaveKal on “The Morality of Chinese Growth.” Lots of charts and something to make you think. Should be a good letter.
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