Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
UK CPI Inflation Stuck at 3.1% Against Bank of England's Forecast for 1.6% / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK inflation for August 2010 was unchanged at CPI 3.1%, remaining stubbornly above the Bank of England's upper limit of 3% and target of 2%, despite virtually 9 months of mantra from the Governor, Mervyn King that high inflation was ALWAYS just temporary and imminently expected to fall to below the 2% target. The more recognised RPI (real inflation) measure dipped marginally from 4.8% to 4.7% and which compares against average pay rises of 2% which illustrates the squeeze that ordinary people are experiencing especially as taxes rise and state services are cut. The academic economists that populate the mainstream press were again caught off guard as expectations were for CPI to fall to 2.8%, just as they have been caught off guard by high inflation EVERY month for the whole of 2010.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
The Hyperinflation Mirage / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Mike_Whitney
The Fed can create as much money as it likes without any risk of inflation provided the money is tucked away where no one can spend it. And this, in fact, is what the Fed has done. They have exchanged $1.7 trillion in reserves for non performing loans and mortgage-backed securities with the banks. But the banks loan book continues to shrink. In other words, the Fed has increased the money supply, but in real terms, the money supply has shrunk. Thus, the Fed's so called quantitative easing (QE) program has failed to stimulate spending or lead to a credit expansion. Had the Fed chosen to take the $1.7 trillion and bury it in a hole on the White House lawn, the effect would have been exactly the same.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Hyperinflation Against Deflation Debate / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Over the past few weeks, many people have asked me to comment on John Hussman's August 23, 2010 post Why Quantitative Easing is Likely to Trigger a Collapse of the U.S. Dollar.
Most wanted to know how that article changed my view regarding deflation. It didn't.
Monday, September 13, 2010
China Economy Booms as Farmers Get Access to Credit / Economics / China Economy
By: Shae_Smith
The second stage to the booming Chinese economy is about to begin.And many of the country's farmers, with little more than shacks and eight kids to feed are going to be the driving force behind it.
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Sunday, September 12, 2010
Where Krugman Went Wrong on Economic Stimulus / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Professor_Emeritus
Paul Krugman, writing in The New York Times on September 5 under the title "1938 in 2010", chastizes president Obama's economists once more for doing what they have promised not to do: to repeat the mistakes of president Roosevelt's economists in 1937 in pulling back fiscal stimulus too soon. According to Krugman, while president Obama's policies have limited the damage from the financial crisis to the economy, they have been too timid in opening the spigots to make money flow, as shown by levels of unemployment that is still disastrously high and increasing. He advocates applying more stimulus, nay, a burst of deficit-financing of the same order of magnitudes as that during World War II, which can amount to roughly twice the value of GDP, or $30 trillion.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Inflation in China Escalates - Miracle Expansion or Bubble to Burst? / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
The New York Times reports Inflation in China Is Rising at a Fast Pace
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Competitive Currency Devaluations Race, Not Every One Can Run a Trade Surplus / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
The Last Half
But It's More Than the Deficit
Not Everyone Can Run a Surplus
Pity the Greeks
The Competitive Currency Devaluation Raceway
There are a number of economic forces in play in today's world, not all of them working in the same direction, which makes choosing policies particularly difficult. Today we finish what we started last week, the last half of the last chapter I have to write to get a rough draft of my forthcoming book, The End Game. (Right now, though, it appears this will actually be the third chapter.) We will start with a few paragraphs to help you remember where we were (or you can go to http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22482.html to read the first part of the chapter).
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Sunday, September 12, 2010
Western Economies Don't Need a Manufacturing Industry / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Phill_Tomlinson
A common assumption among many commentators is that Western countries need a manufacturing base. We have these trade and budget deficits because we don't 'produce' anything tangible. I suppose 200 years ago the same people would have said we need an agricultural base and not this 'phoney' manufacturing industrialisation many nations embarked towards. I disagree with Peter Schiff, Americans don't need manufacturing any more than a country used to employ huge numbers of the population in the agricultural sector. They just need to do things that other nations can't. The service sector is not a drag on the economy, its a path to further prosperity and represents an increase to a nations living standards.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Soaring Corporate Profits As US Worker Pay for Productivity Hits Record Lows / Economics / Social Issues
By: Jesse
Two sets of charts tell the story.
The problem is that when workers are pressed to the wall on pay they lose the ability to consume without taking on debt. And at some point the debt leverage mechanism for consumption breaks down.
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Saturday, September 11, 2010
US Ranks Fourth In Global Competitiveness / Economics / Global Economy
By: Jesse
I think the biggest surprise for US readers might be how high the US ranks in global competitiveness, and the countries that rank the highest. And of course there is the absence of China in the top ten. Shocking when viewed through the lens of an artificially managed-to-the-dollar currency pair.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise More than Expected; But Where's the Demand? / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Rising inventories to meet rising demand is one thing, rising inventories in the face of weak or falling consumer demand is another. On the inventory side of the equation, Wholesale Inventories in U.S. Rose More Than Forecast
Friday, September 10, 2010
Mutant Rat Epidemic Spreading Economic Black Plague / Economics / US Debt
By: D_Sherman_Okst
We are in the midst of a rat infestation of epidemic proportions -- an ‘Economic Black Death’, a plague, spread by Xenopsylla cheopis (rat-fleas).
These are no ordinary rats. No. Our infestation consists of 900-hundred pound, grotesque, disgustingly despicable, giant, disease-carrying, plague-creating, rat-flea ridden mutant rats.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Don't Doubt the Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Neeraj_Chaudhary
A few weeks ago Nouriel Roubini, widely regarded as one of the more pessimistic figures on Wall Street, made headlines by raising his forecasted likelihood of a "double dip recession" to a terrifying 40%. The vast majority of "mainstream" economists (although I would argue Roubini himself is part of that pack) described these predictions as far too gloomy.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Meet the New Goldilocks Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
Back in the glory days of 2008, the mainstream press, political pundits, and various government officials talked about the idea of the Goldilocks economy. Not too hot, not too cold, but just right. Of course the analogy ended when the bears chased Goldilocks out of the cottage. While the same outlets aren’t trotting out the fairy tale this time around, it is clear that the US has hit phase two of the Goldilocks economy and it is my guess that most folks will like this one even less than the first.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Filtering Through the Economic Noise, America's Second Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Stathis
Early last month, the Commerce Department released the latest GDP data. For Q2 of 2010 the GDP growth came in at 2.4%, missing the consensus estimate of 2.5%.
The Commerce Department also released its latest revisions to 2007-2009 GDP data. As I had predicted, the economy shrank more than the previous estimate of 2.6% versus the 2.4% data recorded last year. That made it the largest drop in GDP since 1946.
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Friday, September 10, 2010
Death of Luxury Consumer Brands Postponed Indefinitely / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Pravda
Luxury has survived the crisis, experts say. The death of luxury brands market is postponed indefinitely, and the survivors recovered faster than the more modest brands. Over seven months, the growth in retail turnover, according to Rosstat, was up 4%, and the Russian luxury market can be expected to grow by 5-10% already this year.
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Friday, September 10, 2010
More Stimulus and Unlimited Money Printing Burning the Economic Toast / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Richard_Daughty
Even though I have been drinking so that my speech is slurred after testing some crazy idea that I could drink away my utter horror at the death and dying of the US dollar and economy, history is, on the other hand, being made crystal clear that when a country is so idiotic as to ignore its own Constitutional requirement that money be only made of silver and gold (so as to prevent its over-issuance and thus prevent inflation, The Worst Of All Evils (TWOAE)), and then to compound that stupidity and perfidy by unbelievable over-production of the ridiculously-preferred fiat currency by the foul Federal Reserve mindlessly printing too, too much of it, for too, too long, distorting the economy into an ugly, cancerous, government-centric abomination, that country and its currency are soon toast, which is an unfortunate metaphor because I like toast.
Thursday, September 09, 2010
Economic Stimulus? Yet Again? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Robert_Murphy
This week the Obama administration lays out its plans to further "stimulate" the economy. In particular, the president unveiled his proposals for $50 billion more in infrastructure spending, and a $100 billion extension to a tax credit on research and development.
Unfortunately these ideas range from misguided to downright harmful. If the federal government really wants to promote economic recovery, it should cut spending and taxes in general, and basically get out of the way.
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Thursday, September 09, 2010
Obama's Economic Team has failed, America's Economy Has A Structural Problem / Economics / US Debt
By: Gordon_T_Long
Obama's Economic Team has failed him!
It’s a STRUCTURAL problem not a CYCLICAL problem!
It’s a DEMAND problem not a SUPPLY problem!
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Thursday, September 09, 2010
Federal Debt Crisis Solution, Time for Bernanke to Drop Money on to Main Street / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Ellen_Brown
The Fed is proposing another round of “quantitative easing,” although the first round failed to reverse deflation. It failed because the money went into the coffers of banks, which failed to lend it on. To reverse deflation, the money needs to be funneled directly to state and local economies. The Fed may not be authorized to “monetize” state bonds, but it COULD buy bonds issued by state-owned banks.