Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Double Dip Recession, Keynesianism Is Dying / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Gary_North
Promoting a revamped Keynesian economic theory – one without any guarantee of job growth – is the equivalent of selling a lifetime subscription to a revamped Playboy: one without any photos. It's a tough sell. Yet this is what Keynesians are facing today. This will be fun to watch.
In the last few days, we have begun to see reports from mainstream Keynesian forecasters and economists who are talking about the possibility of a double-dip recession.
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Saturday, August 14, 2010
Foreclosures and Mounting Unemployment, Signs of Slowing U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Barry_Grey
Reports released this week on initial applications for jobless benefits, bank seizures of foreclosed homes and retail sales all reflect a dramatic decline in US economic growth and growing social distress.
On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that first-time jobless claims rose by 2,000 last week to 484,000, the third weekly rise in the past month and the highest level in six months. As has been the case with virtually all US economic data in recent weeks, the figures defied the more optimistic forecasts of economists. They had predicted jobless filings would fall by 14,000.
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Saturday, August 14, 2010
No Economic Recovery, 40 Statistics Confirm the Collapse of the U.S. Economy / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Global_Research
Most Americans still appear to be operating under the delusion that the "recession" will soon pass and that things will get back to "normal" very soon. Unfortunately, that is not anywhere close to the truth. What we are now witnessing are the early stages of the complete and total breakdown of the U.S. economic system. The U.S. government, state governments, local governments, businesses and American consumers have collectively piled up debt that is equivalent to approximately 360 percent of GDP. At no point during the Great Depression (or at any other time during our history) did we ever come close to such a figure. We have piled up the biggest mountain of debt that the world has ever seen, and now that gigantic debt bubble is beginning to pop. As this house of cards comes crashing down, the economic pain is going to become almost unimaginable.
Saturday, August 14, 2010
China Is Winning the Economic War! / Economics / China Economy
By: Sy_Harding
During the ‘cold war’, a term used to describe the tension between communist and capitalist countries, which lasted from 1947 to 1991, one of the fears was a military conflict between Russia or China and the U.S.
It didn’t happen. The potential of a military war instead morphed into an economic war.
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Florida Economic Problems Much Worse Than the BP Gulf Oil Spill / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Doug_Horning
Doug Hornig, Senior Editor, Casey Research writes: Media coverage of the oil spill's effect on the Gulf focusing on tourist income lost by the waterfront towns - with footage of empty beaches, restaurants and T-shirt shops - dominates the news. Interviews with devastated business owners are heart rending. But they always end with references to somehow hanging on until "things get back to normal."
Friday, August 13, 2010
Inflation and Deflation, The Flations Moving Towards a Chaotic Conclusion / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Fred_Sheehan
The incessant debate of whether the economy is inflating or deflating suffers from a vocabulary problem. This is as it must be since some (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke) discuss deflation as falling prices of stuff while others concentrate on the debt deflation of an overleveraged economy. The latter is what matters.
Friday, August 13, 2010
U.S. Economic Recovery, Only It Didn’t / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Andy_Sutton
The powers that be are now starting to be shown what should be a very important lesson in the old saying: “You can fool all of the people some of the time and you can fool all of the people some of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time”. For a year and a half now, starting at a rather well defined point in time during early March 2009, the govermedia switched gears and pronounced that the shattered American economy was in recovery.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Inflationary Economic Depression Forecast Revisited…We are Half-Way There / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Paul_Mladjenovic
Going back a few years ago, I made a forecast that America would be heading toward an inflationary depression. I made that forecast during 2007 and early 2008 when the federal government's policies were very bad.
Today in 2010, the federal government has replaced the bad policies of a few years ago with much, much worse policies today. It is mind-boggling how bad these policies are and it is astonishing that most politicians and many economists don't see the obvious dangers.
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Friday, August 13, 2010
Innovation, What Made America Great is Now Killing Her! / Economics / US Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
"Creative Destruction is Secular not Cyclical" - What made America great was her unsurpassed ability to innovate. Equally important was also her ability to rapidly adapt to the change that this innovation fostered. For decades the combination has been a self reinforcing growth dynamic with innovation offering a continuously improving standard of living and higher corporate productivity levels, which the US quickly embraced and adapted to. This in turn financed further innovation. No country in the world could match the American culture that flourished on technology advancements in all areas of human endeavor. However, something serious and major has changed across America. Daily, more and more are becoming acutely aware of this, but few grasp exactly what it is. It is called Creative Destruction.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Foreign Economic Growth Could Bail Out the U.S. Economy / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: During a period of increasingly worrisome headlines about the U.S. economy, there is one bright spot. The rest of the world appears to be doing much better than we are.
In the long run, that's good news for the United States. Rapid world growth will eventually rekindle the economic fires here, producing a growth that is more balanced than the bubbles of 1995-2008.
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Friday, August 13, 2010
The Real Reason for Bank of England's Worthless CPI Inflation Forecasts / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England released their latest quarterly inflation report this week that again sought to revise the forecast for UK inflation to converge towards 2% in 2 years time. However one major change accompanying the forecast was that the mantra of UK inflation being above the 2% target and the 3% upper limit as only temporary has now been dropped, this after repeatedly claiming month in month out for the past 7 months that Inflation would magically fall that the academic economists and mainstream press had swallowed up until quite recently.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Countdown to Economic Collapse, The Recovery is Not Recovering / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Danny_Schechter
Financial journalist, Charles Gasparino whose career trajectory took him from Newsweek to CNBC to Fox News was on with Bill O’ Reilly doing what the host of that factless Factor likes to do the most: promoting Fox News. In the course of their self-promotional banter, Gasparino let sip an unverifiable story about a meeting of top CEOs speculating about whether President Obama really is a secret Socialist.
Friday, August 13, 2010
U.S. Economic Depression, Just How Bad Will It Get? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Graham_Summers
For months now I have averred that the US economy was not in recovery and that in point of fact all talk of “recovery” was a load of BS.
I realize this view is far from the consensus. Even those who are in the bear camp aver that the Stimulus did in fact bring us out of recession at least temporarily.
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Thursday, August 12, 2010
How To Get Hyper-Inflation and Wing-Wham Un-Fund Liabilities …and Not Spill Your Drink / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Andrew_Butter
I refer to the esteemed social and economic commentator P.J. O’Rourke’s learned treatise on, “How to drive Fast on Drugs While Having Your Wing-Wham Squeezed, and not Spill Your Drink”.
Substitute “create inflation” with “driving fast on drugs” and the delights of having your Wing-Wham squeezed with creating a pile of unfunded liabilities to be paid-off by a child you don’t acknowledge or aim to take care of, one fine-day, in the future.
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Thursday, August 12, 2010
Is Deflation Really Bad for the Economy? / Economics / Deflation
By: Frank_Shostak
On Friday, July 30, the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank president, James Bullard, speaking on CNBC television, said that the Fed must weigh medium-term inflation risks against near-term deflation risks. For most economists and commentators, a general fall in prices, which they label deflation, is a terrible thing. They hold that a fall in prices generates expectations for a further decline in prices. As a result of this, consumers postpone their buying of goods at present because they expect to buy these goods at lower prices in the future. Consequently, this weakens the overall flow of spending, and that in turn weakens the economy.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
The Illusion of Economic Recovery, The Fed Creates Money Out of Thin Air / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
Well, it's just the same old, same old, business as usual in America. The Fed creates money out of thin air, uses it to keep the economy from teetering over the edge of destruction as ludicrous salaries and bonuses are collected by Wall Street Illuminists and as US consumers are deceptively informed that we have green shoots sprouting up and that recovery is just around the corner. So go out and borrow, borrow, borrow, and spend, spend, spend, so US Illuminist transnational conglomerates can continue to generate their off-shore, untaxed profits to pay Illuminist salaries and bonuses for their henchmen in Corporate America. Then you have the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (aka the Plunge Protection Team, aka the PPT for short), rigging markets around the world 24/7 with the money created out of thin air by the Fed via the repo pool.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Jobs and Income, the Only Things That Matter… And No One Talks About / Economics / US Economy
By: Graham_Summers
Today, most pundits are growing increasingly concerned that we are headed for a “double dip” recession. I think this view is idiotic as the US “recovery” was in fact nothing more than a small bounce in economy activity within the context of a DEPRESSION.
Regardless, the stooges are out again in full force proclaiming that the US economy is in trouble again (duh), that the Stimulus high is wearing off (duh again) and that the only solution is to issue more Stimulus and money printing to stop another economic contraction (WHAT!?!).
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Thursday, August 12, 2010
Runaway Out of Control U.S. Federal Government Spending? / Economics / Government Spending
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The U.S. Treasury released its budget status for July. As Chart 1 shows, the cumulative deficit in the 12 months ended July was $1.318 trillion - the lowest since June 2009's $1.255 trillion. So far, the largest 12-month cumulative deficit reading has been $1.477 trillion in the 12 months ended February 2010.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Major leading Economic Indicator in Free Fall! / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Claus_Vogt
In my July 14 Money and Markets column, I explained how the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) Weekly Leading Index confirmed my bearish forecast.
Back then, the index’s growth rate was minus 8.3 percent. And as you can see in the chart below, it is continuing to freefall — tumbling to minus 10.3 percent for the week ending July 30 …
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Bullish Outlook for European Economies, U.S. QE2 Problems / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
This week we look at some mostly bullish analysis from my friends at GaveKal for the Outside the Box. Much of the letter is devoted to looking at why Europe may fare better than many think (which will make uber-European bull David Kotok happy to read!). But be very sure to read the last page as Steve Vannelli analyzes the latest speculation about the Fed and quantitative easing. All those calling for QE2 may not actually do what they think it will. His conclusion?