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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, December 19, 2008

Inflationary Consequences of Fed Policy of Monetary Panic / Economics / Money Supply

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMeasurement is perhaps second greatest problem in establishing satisfactory economic policies for a nation. That matters because those economic policies influence the value of the nation's money on foreign exchange markets. In the case of the U.S. dollar, that $Gold has risen in value by more than 150% in the past ten years is unquestionably a failing grade for U.S. economic policy makers. Inflation measurement may be part of that inadequacy as it was used as a rationale for easy money.

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Economics

Thursday, December 18, 2008

UK Inflation CPI Slumps to 4.1% Whilst RPI Crashes to 3% / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK inflation as measured by the CPI continued its sharp fall following Octobers slump from 5.2% to 4.5% by falling in November by 0.4% to 4.1%. This follows hard on the heels of the Bank of England's continuing panic interest rate cuts that saw another 1% sliced off of the UK base rate at Decembers MPC meeting to 2% as the UK remains on target to experience a recession just as bad as that of the early 1980's. Meanwhile the RPI inflation measure crashed by 1.2%, falling from 4.2% to 3% as increasingly the RPI measure heads for true deflation during 2009 i.e. negative inflation.

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Economics

Thursday, December 18, 2008

UK Unemployment Breaks above 2 million During December / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK unemployment crept up by 39,000 for September to 1.864 million, and remains on target to break above 2 million on release of data for December 2008. The unemployment claimant count surged in November by nearly 10% to 1.056 million, up 86,000 on the month and confirming that the pace of unemployment is fast accelerating which compares against Octobers rise of 25,000 and September's rise of just 20,000.

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Economics

Thursday, December 18, 2008

UK Real Retail Sales Deflation Continues as Woolworths Goes Bust / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe latest retail sales data released by the ONS shows UK retail sales showing a surprise rose of 0.4 for November and up 1.7% on a year earlier, however a deeper analysis of the data reveals that the data for October was revised lower on the retail sales indices from 140 down to 139.7, and therefore the index of 140.1 for November is just 0.1 higher on the original data rather than that which the mainstream press is running with as positive sign as the below graph illustrates.

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Economics

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Norway's Central Bank Slashes Rates, Warns of Recession / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Victoria_Marklew

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNorway's central bank today slashed its sight deposit rate by a record 175 bps, taking it to 3.0%. Stating that the risk of a "pronounced downturn" in the economy has increased, Norges Bank warned that real GDP is likely to contract in Q4 2008 and again in Q1 2009 - a marked contrast to its forecast of continued growth made just two months ago.

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Economics

Thursday, December 18, 2008

UK Economy Nosedives Pointing to Much Lower Sterling and Interest Rates / Economics / UK Economy

By: Victoria_Marklew

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe economic news out of the UK is ever more grim. Today was the turn of employment and retail sales. Claimant count unemployment surged by 75,700 last month, taking the number of unemployed by this measure past the psychologically-important one million mark for the first time since 2001. The broader ILO-basis jobless rate rose from 5.8% in the three months to September, to 6.0% in August-October. As unemployment is usually a lagging indicator, the fact that jobs are being shed at this fast a pace this early in the economic downturn points to a harsh year ahead for employment.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Financial World Turned Upside Down– A Changing of the Guard?  / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: William_R_Thomson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRevolutionary war history buffs may recall that as Lord Cornwallis surrendered to George Washington at the Battle of Yorktown in 1781 his band – the Buckinghamshire Light Infantry - played “The world turned upside down”. Nothing could be a more apt metaphor for the global financial markets in the latter half of 2008. The established economic orthodoxies have been progressively jettisoned as the global markets entered an unprecedented phase of meltdown and fear drove out greed as the overriding driving force.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Deflation and the Destruction of America's Wealth / Economics / Deflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Weiss writes: The deflation we've been warning you about is here, and it's striking hard. Last week, the Fed released a report that sent chills down the spine of economists all over the world, revealing a sweeping destruction of wealth in America.

Just in the third quarter alone, U.S. households lost $647 billion in real estate; $922 billion in stocks; $523 billion in mutual funds; $653 billion in life insurance and pension fund reserves; plus $128 billion in private business interests.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Expect Smaller If Any Pay Increases During 2009 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Shedlock

The latest business survey from Hewitt Associates Inc. suggests that Pay Raises Will Take A Hit

Employers, who as recently as October said they were barely modifying their salary budgets for 2009, have changed their tune in December, this time bringing some workers' projected annual pay raises to a low not seen in three decades.

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Economics

Monday, December 15, 2008

Deflation 2009 as Central Bank Credit Creation Loses to Derivatives Deleveraging / Economics / Deflation

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment ideas, all of which were profitable by the end of the year. It is not unusual for Gary to give us over 75 charts and tables in his monthly letters along with his commentary, which makes his thinking unusually clear and accessible.

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Economics

Monday, December 15, 2008

U.S. Federal Reserve Sets Stage for Weimar Style Hyper-inflation / Economics / HyperInflation

By: F_William_Engdahl

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Federal Reserve has bluntly refused a request by a major US financial news service to disclose the recipients of more than $2 trillion of emergency loans from US taxpayers and to reveal the assets the central bank is accepting as collateral. Their lawyers resorted to the bizarre argument that they did so to protect ‘trade secrets.' Is the secret that the US financial system is de facto bankrupt? The latest Fed move is further indication of the degree of panic and lack of clear strategy within the highest ranks of the US financial institutions. Unprecedented Federal Reserve expansion of the Monetary Base in recent weeks sets the stage for a future Weimar-style hyperinflation perhaps before 2010.

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Economics

Monday, December 15, 2008

How Deflation Creates Hyper-inflation / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Eric_deCarbonnel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI keep reading about the dollar being a "new multi-year bull market" and that the US is headed for "Japan style deflation". Frankly, it is a little tiring. The people making these arguments should know better.

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Economics

Monday, December 15, 2008

The Financial Bomb in your Christmas Stockings / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMisplaced fears are the most dangerous of all - The Muslim terrorists of Mumbai are not our greatest threat nor will they cause the greatest suffering in the days ahead. That which will cause the greatest grief is the banker's system of credit-based paper money, a house of cards now in flames and about to burn all inside who still believe it to be shelter instead of a charnel house.

Those who have attended Professor Antal E. Fekete's Gold Standard University Live (GSUL) are not found around corporate watering holes discussing stock tips. Although aware of the markets, those in attendance have their focus on the system itself, on what caused its problems and what can be done to correct it.

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Economics

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Excess Debt and Deflation = Depression / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Stephen_Lendman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIrving Fisher (1867 - 1947) was perhaps the most noted economist of his day. The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics calls him "one of America's greatest mathematical economists and one of" its clearest writers. He earned special acclaim for his work on monetary and statistical theory, policy, index numbers, econometrics, and the distinction between real and nominal interest rates.

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Economics

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Imploding Overly Leveraged Private Equity Deals Deepen Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Money_Morning

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: The once booming business of private equity faces an uncertain future. What's not uncertain, however, is that many private equity deals are imploding from the weight of leveraged debt and greed. Inevitable bankruptcies will result in higher unemployment and a deeper recession.

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Economics

Sunday, December 14, 2008

China to Print Money, Devalue Currency to Combat Deep Slowdown / Economics / China Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDeflation talk is surfacing in China as Chairman Liu Mingkang says China December Producer Price Index to Drop .

China's producer price index is expected to drop "sharply" in December, China Banking Regulatory Commission Chairman Liu Mingkang said. The world's fourth-biggest economy is shifting toward deflation, Liu told a financial forum in Beijing today. Capital inflows may shift to outflows, with gross domestic product projected around 8 percent next year, he said.

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Economics

Sunday, December 14, 2008

How to Prepare for the Deflationary Market Crash / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEditor's Note: The following article is adapted from Robert Prechter's best-selling book, Conquer the Crash – You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression . In addition to this article, visit Elliott Wave International to download the free 15-page report about how to protect yourself, you wealth and your family in this environment. It contains details about what you should do with your pension plan, valuable tips for business owners, insights on handling loans and debt and important warnings against trusting the government to protect you.

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Economics

Friday, December 12, 2008

Our Asset Value Trend Dependent Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Tim_Iacono

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Federal Reserve's latest Flow of Funds Report contains some painful news about how our asset-dependent economy is faring in what is now an increasingly asset-averse world. This time around we have double the trouble as prices for both stocks and housing are declining.

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Economics

Friday, December 12, 2008

Fed Policy Makers Wasting $10 Trillion on Bailout Liabilities / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: David_Haas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat These Dangerous Clowns Don’t Understand - I had the unnerving experience last night of staying up late watching C-Span as U.S. Senators hammered and then shot down the bailout bill for the Detroit“Big 3″ (a misnomer?) automakers. I must admit, there was a great deal of heart-felt passion in the words of the representatives who were courageous enough to speak out and it was this rare display of authenticity and, dare-I-say, credibility that kept me watching.

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Economics

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Forget Inflation Instead Focus on How Long Deflation Will Last / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHumpty Dumpty On Inflation - There is an excellent article by Axel Merk on Market Oracle called Monetizing the Debt . The article discusses the Fed's growing balance sheet and whether or not it represents inflation. The aspect that I want to highlight is in regards to bank lending.

Here are a couple of charts from the article along with commentary by Merk.

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