Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Bernanke Sees Chance of Jobless Economic Recovery / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Given that the Fed's first mission is to delay, confuse, hope, and otherwise attempt to buy time while engaging in wishful thinking along the way, that Bernanke is willing to admit this may be a jobless recovery is a sign that things will likely be at least that bad. In other words, prepare for a job loss recovery.
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Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Keynes, Monetary Cranks Promoting Fiat Currencies and Deflation / Economics / Economic Theory
By: LewRockwell
Gary North writes: John Maynard Keynes changed his economic views every few years. His 1936 book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, was his last book. He spent the war years in the British Treasury. He died in 1946. So, he did not change his mind again.
Keynes' final book was a defense of government spending. This is why the book was hailed as a masterpiece. It backed up what all Western governments were already doing: spending money on welfare projects and running massive deficits.
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Tuesday, July 14, 2009
What the Fed’s Exit Strategy Will Mean for the Economy / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Michael_Pento
Economics is not an exact science. It pales in comparison to mathematics because it contains a high component of art in its analysis. With that said, there are several principles that still apply. One such principle is: when the condition of an economy becomes overleveraged, it needs to experience consistently expanding GDP with unabated asset price appreciation and a falling currency, or it will become insolvent.
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Tuesday, July 14, 2009
The Shamans Economic Solution: Why Failure is Imminent / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Anthony_Ebin
Lets say that Bernanke, Geithner, Krugman are all correct in saying that government stimulus/intervention is the only way to stimulate the economy out of recession/depression. So they ask Obama to spend enough money to create enough jobs to eventually solve the problem. Now there are 2 main ways that government can raise the amount of money that people like Geithner and others have calculated would be enough to stimulate the economy:
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
What's the Real CPI Inflation Rate? / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are asking "What is the Real CPI?" It's a good question, too. However, you can find many widely differing opinions. For example, you will get one answer from the government, a different answer from sites like Shadowstats, and a third opinion from me.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Debt Deflation the Reason Why Government Economic Stimulus is Doomed to Fail / Economics / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
There is a reason I call this column Outside the Box. I try to get material that forces us to think outside our normal comfort zones and challenges our common assumptions. I have made the comment more than once that is it unusual for two major bubbles to burst and for the conversation to be all about rising inflation and not a serious problem with deflation.
As Niels Jensen pointed out last week, the most important question that an investor can ask is whether we are in for deflation or inflation. And this week we read a well reasoned piece on deflation. This is one of the more important essays I have sent out. You need to set aside some time to absorb this one.
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Monday, July 13, 2009
Mike Shedlock, Mish Should Ditch His Deflation Fears / Economics / Deflation
By: MISES
Robert P. Murphy writes: We who are advocates of sound, free-market money need to get our story straight. Are we predicting hyperinflation or massive deflation? Personally, I am much more worried about the former problem. Using a recent article by Mish, I hope to show that no one has made a convincing case for falling prices.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Baby Boomers Your Financial & Economic Winter is Coming, The Fourth Turning / Economics / Great Depression II
By: James_Quinn
Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension. - Strauss & Howe – The Fourth TurningRead full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 13, 2009
U.S. Economy Recession End, Recovery and Interest Rate Forecast / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
When We Get "There", Will We Know It?- Back in April, our forecast update commentary was entitled, "Are We There Yet?" The "there" referred to a resumption of real growth in the overall economy. Our answer in April was "no," which also happens to be our answer in July. When will we get there? Our answer in April was the fourth quarter of this year, which also happens to be our answer now. Assuming we get there in the fourth quarter, would most households and businesses in America know it if they were not so informed by the media? Probably not. We anticipate another "jobless recovery," which implies a relatively feeble one. We would not be surprised to hear terms early in 2010 such as "double dip."
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Fed Deflation Propaganda to Meet Wealth Destroying Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: MISES
Howard S. Katz writes: The Federal Reserve is lying about the nation's money supply (M1). The current figure for money supply is being given as $1.6 trillion. The actual number is $2.34 trillion. The reported number is equivalent to an increase of 16% over the past year. The actual number is equivalent to an increase of 70% over the past year. This compares with the nation's high money-supply increase of 16.9% in 1986.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Housing Market Bottoming, Economy Recovering? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
BCA Research: US economy - it looks like a recovery
“The US economy is transitioning to a recovery path, though it will be bumpy and subdued compared with past cycles.
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Sunday, July 12, 2009
Does 5 Trillion of New Debt Mean End of the Recession? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
The End of the Recession?
The New Normal Is Still In Our Future
The Hidden Problem Within Unemployment Data
Was Income Really Up?
There is no doubt that the US is in financial trouble. Those talking of a strong recovery are just not dealing with reality. But the US is in better shape than a lot of countries.
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Sunday, July 12, 2009
Obama Rejects Second Economic Stimulus / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Mike_Shedlock
After sitting on the fence for weeks as noted in Battle Lines Form Over "Son of Stimulus" president Obama finally makes up his mind.
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Saturday, July 11, 2009
Secular Economic Stagnation / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Peter_Navarro
Two weeks ago, I indicated that I had gone into a full, risk neutral hedge on my call options portfolio. This, of course, was equivalent to a call to cash in light of weakening market conditions. Since that time, the market has continued to deteriorate technically, and this technical deterioration clearly reflects uncertainties over economic fundamentals. This call to hedge or cash remains in play.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
America is Now the World’s Biggest Debtor Nation / Economics / US Debt
By: Global_Research
Bob Chapman writes: The latest Treasury auction of $19 billion of 10-year notes was at a yield of 3.365%. The bid to cover was 3.28 to 1, the highest ever. This was the third of four sales this week totaling $73 billion.
Consumer credit fell $3.23 billion in May, as credit fell 1.5% to $2.5196 trillion from $2.522 trillion in April. Four monthly declines matches June-December of 1991. Big loans fell $400 million, or 0.3%. Revolving credit fell $2.9 billion, or at a 3.7% rate.
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Saturday, July 11, 2009
When Will The Economic Recovery Begin? Never / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Submissions
Robert Reich writes: The so-called "green shoots" of recovery are turning brown in the scorching summer sun. In fact, the whole debate about when and how a recovery will begin is wrongly framed.
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Saturday, July 11, 2009
The Deflation Survival Guide, 60 page ebook Download Now for Free / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Our friends at Elliott Wave International put together an expansive Deflation Survival Guide. The free 60-page eBook is packed with Robert Prechter's most important teachings and warnings about deflation. This is one of the most valuable resources EWI has ever offered at no cost. Learn more below or download it now – for free.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Japan's Economy Continues to Collapse, No End to the Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Adrian_Ash
Japanese machine orders just sank to a 22-year low...
IF WE ARE SLIPPING into a Japan-style depression, as signaled perhaps by the swollen demand (and supply) for government debt worldwide, then recovery might take longer than almost anyone guesses.
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Friday, July 10, 2009
Global Growth Surprises 2010, Germany and Brazil to Outperform China and India / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: Markets were cheered Wednesday when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected global growth of 2.5% for 2010, a slight increase from its earlier forecast of 1.9% growth.
That’s good news for investors – but consumers in the United States and investors focused on it may not see much benefit.
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Friday, July 10, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Claims: How Bad are the "Real" Numbers? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
As noted in Continuing Claims Soar by 159,000 to New Record the record continuing claims number is dramatically understated by over 2.5 million. Charts of what is really happening are shown below but first let's recap the data as reported by the Department of Labor.