Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Deflation Inflates Global Bond Bubble / Economics / Bond Bubble
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): US Q3 real GDP remains unchanged “The final estimate of third quarter GDP was unchanged at a 0.5% drop. The minor revisions show consumer spending and non-residential investment slightly weaker than the preliminary report, government spending was marginally stronger, and residential investment expenditures fell less rapidly.
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Sunday, December 28, 2008
Global Economic Structural Changes – A Quantitative approach / Economics / Global Economy
By: Econgineers
Proposed Study - Global Economy Many structural changes in the global economy are due to the rise of emerging markets. In this study we will discuss structural changes in economies, debate and propose a quantitative approach to identify possible trading opportunities.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Credit Crisis 2008 Ends as Economic Crisis of 2009 Begins / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Investors spent the holiday-shortened Christmas week in an un-merry mood, digesting more gloomy economic data and taking stock of a tumultuous 2008.
With the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Index down by 35.8% and 40.6% respectively for the year to date, many investors would be anxious to wave the old year goodbye. But changing the calendar digits from '08 to '09 will regrettably not make an iota's difference to the perilous nature of the investment environment facing investors as we usher in the New Year.
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Saturday, December 27, 2008
Unemployment Prevention- Companies Implementing Unpaid Vacations and Four Day Weeks / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes: The U.S. unemployment rate, currently at a level of 6.5%, could rise to 8% next year . But it could also find a ceiling sooner than expected, as more companies implement unpaid vacations and four-day workweeks to preserve jobs.
The U.S. recession may just now be entering full swing, but storm clouds have been gathering for more than a year and many companies have already trimmed payrolls. Now, the goal for many companies is to prepare for an economic rebound by finding ways to keep the their skilled productive labor intact.
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Saturday, December 27, 2008
Asian Economic Crisis of 2009 / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Mike_Shedlock
Asia Economic Crisis: Spotlight on Japan, China, Korea, Vietnam. Decoupling, an idea that never made any sense, is talking another beating. Bad news is coming from multiple places in Asia, with Japan and China leading the way. Let's take a look starting with Japan's Recession Deepens as Factory Output Plummets . Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 26, 2008
US Economic Output vs Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
Whether prices rise or fall depends on what is happening with a nation's economic output and money supply. If one is growing/shrinking proportionally faster than the other, you get inflation/deflation. For example, if the money supply is growing faster than economic output (what happens during normal economic times), you get inflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 26, 2008
U.S. Recession 2009 Depth Analysis / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: What Shape Will the U.S. Recession Take: U, W or ‘Bloody L?’ Right now, the conventional wisdom seems to be that the United States is looking at a "U-shaped" recession and recovery. Output declined gently in the third quarter, is dropping sharply now and will continue dropping sharply in the first and possibly the second quarter of the New Year, finally bottoming out and beginning a slow recovery thereafter. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 26, 2008
Fiscal Insanity Virus Strikes Canada, Sweden, Italy, IMF / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Mike_Shedlock
The world health organization has confirmed new cases of the extremely contagious Fiscal Insanity Virus (FIV) that is rapidly spreading the globe. Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is one of the latest victims as evidenced by the headline Flaherty gives banks deadline to lend more . Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Higher Wages or Bubblenomics: What's it gonna be? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Whitney
Wages, wages, wages. It all gets down to wages. A strong economy must be built on a solid foundation of steadily rising wages. If wages don't keep pace with production, the only way the economy can grow is through the expansion of debt, which leads to disaster.
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Wednesday, December 24, 2008
U.S. Economy GDP Contracts by 0.5% in Third Quarter / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Mike Caggeso writes: The U.S. economy shrank 0.5% in the third quarter, marking the slowing pace since 2001 and continuing a still deepening recession that has wrung the markets since last year.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Inflation Deflation Switch Turns Entire Investment World Upside Down for 2009 / Economics / Investing 2009
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: The Fed, the Treasury and all major governments on the planet are throwing the kitchen sink at this debt crisis.
But their efforts are being overwhelmed by a monumental sea change — the shift from rising prices to falling prices, from booming asset values to crashing asset values, from wealth creation to wealth destruction , from inflation to deflation.
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Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Deflation Depression II as $10 Trillion Wealth Destroyed / Economics / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
Have you done your Christmas shopping yet? Research shows that more of us are putting it off in expectations of better prices. In other words deflationary expectations! The prices I have seen while out shopping the past few weeks are simply amazing. I have to admit to have made a few purchases for some items that I was not planning to buy just yet because prices were off by 60% or more. A few days ago a friend came in sporting a new black cashmere sweater top with jeweled embroidery and quite fancy. She said she got it at Saks. But the real story is that when she walked into Saks looking for a present for her kids they handed her a coupon with a 30% off any one item from whatever price it was already marked down. That top? At one point it was almost $500. She bought it for $75. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 22, 2008
Federal Reserve and Central Banking Responsible for Inflationary Booms and Busts / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Rob_Kirby
Whether Or Not We Like It - In the past, I've written papers where the following quotation was included at the end of the treatise as an “exclamation point”: “We shall have World Government, whether or not we like it. The only question is whether World Government will be achieved by conquest or consent.” – James Paul Warburg , whose family co-founded the Federal Reserve - while speaking before the United States Senate, February 17, 1950 Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 22, 2008
Great Depression 2009 Follows $30 Trillion Deflation / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Kurt_Kasun
Not Your Grandfather's Depression - It will be much worse, in many respects.
The chart below, borrowed from Dr. Marc Faber's Market Commentary December 1, 2008, is devastating. The chart shows a stunning loss of $30 trillion stock market wealth around the world. By some estimates, combined losses in commodities, stocks, bonds, real estate are greater than $60 trillion. This is beyond rescue.
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Monday, December 22, 2008
U.S. Economy Sinking in an Ocean of Newly Created Money / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Gerard_Jackson
At one time or another we have all heard it said that "you cannot get there from here". Much the same can be said of the current state of the US economy. Every prominent economic pundit is focusing on falling demand as the economy's nemesis. Nouriel Roubini points out that "85 percent of aggregate demand -- consumption and fixed investment -- is now in free fall". It's even worse than that because final demand as it is calculated does not include inter-business spending (spending between the stages of production). If this were taken into account the picture would change from grim to downright scary. That Treasury bills have been trading at negative rates is evidence enough of the markets fearful state. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Governments Powerless in the face of Price Deflation and Debt Collapse / Economics / Deflation
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin here with a quick update and big picture overview.
Deflation is now striking with unprecedented power and speed: Last week, OPEC announced its biggest production cut in history … and STILL oil prices collapsed, extending their largest decline of all time.
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Friday, December 19, 2008
Inflationary Consequences of Fed Policy of Monetary Panic / Economics / Money Supply
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Measurement is perhaps second greatest problem in establishing satisfactory economic policies for a nation. That matters because those economic policies influence the value of the nation's money on foreign exchange markets. In the case of the U.S. dollar, that $Gold has risen in value by more than 150% in the past ten years is unquestionably a failing grade for U.S. economic policy makers. Inflation measurement may be part of that inadequacy as it was used as a rationale for easy money. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
UK Inflation CPI Slumps to 4.1% Whilst RPI Crashes to 3% / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK inflation as measured by the CPI continued its sharp fall following Octobers slump from 5.2% to 4.5% by falling in November by 0.4% to 4.1%. This follows hard on the heels of the Bank of England's continuing panic interest rate cuts that saw another 1% sliced off of the UK base rate at Decembers MPC meeting to 2% as the UK remains on target to experience a recession just as bad as that of the early 1980's. Meanwhile the RPI inflation measure crashed by 1.2%, falling from 4.2% to 3% as increasingly the RPI measure heads for true deflation during 2009 i.e. negative inflation. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
UK Unemployment Breaks above 2 million During December / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK unemployment crept up by 39,000 for September to 1.864 million, and remains on target to break above 2 million on release of data for December 2008. The unemployment claimant count surged in November by nearly 10% to 1.056 million, up 86,000 on the month and confirming that the pace of unemployment is fast accelerating which compares against Octobers rise of 25,000 and September's rise of just 20,000. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
UK Real Retail Sales Deflation Continues as Woolworths Goes Bust / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest retail sales data released by the ONS shows UK retail sales showing a surprise rose of 0.4 for November and up 1.7% on a year earlier, however a deeper analysis of the data reveals that the data for October was revised lower on the retail sales indices from 140 down to 139.7, and therefore the index of 140.1 for November is just 0.1 higher on the original data rather than that which the mainstream press is running with as positive sign as the below graph illustrates.Read full article... Read full article...