Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Baby Boomers Your Financial & Economic Winter is Coming, The Fourth Turning / Economics / Great Depression II
By: James_Quinn
Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension. - Strauss & Howe – The Fourth TurningRead full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 13, 2009
U.S. Economy Recession End, Recovery and Interest Rate Forecast / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
When We Get "There", Will We Know It?- Back in April, our forecast update commentary was entitled, "Are We There Yet?" The "there" referred to a resumption of real growth in the overall economy. Our answer in April was "no," which also happens to be our answer in July. When will we get there? Our answer in April was the fourth quarter of this year, which also happens to be our answer now. Assuming we get there in the fourth quarter, would most households and businesses in America know it if they were not so informed by the media? Probably not. We anticipate another "jobless recovery," which implies a relatively feeble one. We would not be surprised to hear terms early in 2010 such as "double dip."
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Fed Deflation Propaganda to Meet Wealth Destroying Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: MISES
Howard S. Katz writes: The Federal Reserve is lying about the nation's money supply (M1). The current figure for money supply is being given as $1.6 trillion. The actual number is $2.34 trillion. The reported number is equivalent to an increase of 16% over the past year. The actual number is equivalent to an increase of 70% over the past year. This compares with the nation's high money-supply increase of 16.9% in 1986.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Housing Market Bottoming, Economy Recovering? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
BCA Research: US economy - it looks like a recovery
“The US economy is transitioning to a recovery path, though it will be bumpy and subdued compared with past cycles.
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Sunday, July 12, 2009
Does 5 Trillion of New Debt Mean End of the Recession? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
The End of the Recession?
The New Normal Is Still In Our Future
The Hidden Problem Within Unemployment Data
Was Income Really Up?
There is no doubt that the US is in financial trouble. Those talking of a strong recovery are just not dealing with reality. But the US is in better shape than a lot of countries.
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Sunday, July 12, 2009
Obama Rejects Second Economic Stimulus / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Mike_Shedlock
After sitting on the fence for weeks as noted in Battle Lines Form Over "Son of Stimulus" president Obama finally makes up his mind.
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Saturday, July 11, 2009
Secular Economic Stagnation / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Peter_Navarro
Two weeks ago, I indicated that I had gone into a full, risk neutral hedge on my call options portfolio. This, of course, was equivalent to a call to cash in light of weakening market conditions. Since that time, the market has continued to deteriorate technically, and this technical deterioration clearly reflects uncertainties over economic fundamentals. This call to hedge or cash remains in play.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
America is Now the World’s Biggest Debtor Nation / Economics / US Debt
By: Global_Research
Bob Chapman writes: The latest Treasury auction of $19 billion of 10-year notes was at a yield of 3.365%. The bid to cover was 3.28 to 1, the highest ever. This was the third of four sales this week totaling $73 billion.
Consumer credit fell $3.23 billion in May, as credit fell 1.5% to $2.5196 trillion from $2.522 trillion in April. Four monthly declines matches June-December of 1991. Big loans fell $400 million, or 0.3%. Revolving credit fell $2.9 billion, or at a 3.7% rate.
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Saturday, July 11, 2009
When Will The Economic Recovery Begin? Never / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Submissions
Robert Reich writes: The so-called "green shoots" of recovery are turning brown in the scorching summer sun. In fact, the whole debate about when and how a recovery will begin is wrongly framed.
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Saturday, July 11, 2009
The Deflation Survival Guide, 60 page ebook Download Now for Free / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Our friends at Elliott Wave International put together an expansive Deflation Survival Guide. The free 60-page eBook is packed with Robert Prechter's most important teachings and warnings about deflation. This is one of the most valuable resources EWI has ever offered at no cost. Learn more below or download it now – for free.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Japan's Economy Continues to Collapse, No End to the Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Adrian_Ash
Japanese machine orders just sank to a 22-year low...
IF WE ARE SLIPPING into a Japan-style depression, as signaled perhaps by the swollen demand (and supply) for government debt worldwide, then recovery might take longer than almost anyone guesses.
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Friday, July 10, 2009
Global Growth Surprises 2010, Germany and Brazil to Outperform China and India / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: Markets were cheered Wednesday when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected global growth of 2.5% for 2010, a slight increase from its earlier forecast of 1.9% growth.
That’s good news for investors – but consumers in the United States and investors focused on it may not see much benefit.
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Friday, July 10, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Claims: How Bad are the "Real" Numbers? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
As noted in Continuing Claims Soar by 159,000 to New Record the record continuing claims number is dramatically understated by over 2.5 million. Charts of what is really happening are shown below but first let's recap the data as reported by the Department of Labor.
Friday, July 10, 2009
United States Heading For National Socialism Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: LewRockwell
It was common on the left to intimate that George W. Bush was like Hitler, a remark that would drive the National Review crowd through the roof but which I didn't find entirely outrageous. Bush's main method of governance was to stir up fear of foreign enemies and instigate a kind of nationalist hysteria about the need for waging war and giving up liberty through security.
Thursday, July 09, 2009
34 Million Americans Now on Food Stamps / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Earlier today, in Continuing Claims Soar by 159,000 to New Record; Initial Jobless Claims Skewed By Autos I noted The peak in initial claims might be in but the peak in unemployment has not. Moreover, reported continuing claims hit 6.883 million, setting a new all time record.
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Thursday, July 09, 2009
Iceland's Banking Crisis: The Meltdown of an Interventionist Financial System / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: MISES
By Philipp Bagus and David Howden: [Editor note: If you are interested in helping to fund the writing, publication, and distribution of a longer version of this article, with more technical detail and analytics, please write the development department.]
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
When Economic Stimulus Does Not Stimulate / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: MISES
Shawn Ritenour writes: A majority of Americans now give President Obama's handling of the economy a negative rating and many economists and city officials are concerned that Obama's gargantuan stimulus effort has not given the expected quick boost to the economy. Some argue this is because funds have been slow in coming due to bureaucratic red tape meant to ensure that the money spent will not be wasted.
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
Unemployment, Not the Stock Market, Distinguishes a Recession From a Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Money_and_Markets
Claus Vogt writes: What are the most important and enduring characteristics of the Great Depression? And what should we monitor to determine how severe today’s situation really is?
The stock market will give important clues. But the economy, especially unemployment, defines depressions.
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Wednesday, July 08, 2009
Battle Lines Form Over "Son of Economic Stimulus" / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Mike_Shedlock
Although very little of the stimulus money approved by Congress has actually been spent, many are making the case for throwing still more money at the problem.
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
HyperInflation or Deflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Puru_Saxena
At present, the investment community is divided as to whether the world economy faces hyperinflation or deflation. Some observers are convinced that the central banks’ printing press will take the world towards hyperinflation whereas others believe that the ongoing contraction in American private-sector debt will result in outright deflation. So, what will the future bring?