Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
How Government Austerity Cutbacks Ended Sweden’s Great Depression / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: MISES
Per L. Bylund writes: During the recent financial crisis, Sweden has emerged as one of very few financially sound economies. The country’s strong position, setting it apart from most Western nations, makes it an interesting example of what could — or should — have been done. Indeed, Paul Krugman, the former economist and Nobel Prize laureate, has repeatedly pointed approvingly at how the Swedes handled their depression in the early 1990s as the reason for their recent success. Specifically, he notes the nationalization of some banks at the time of the crisis. While he misses the point by focusing exclusively on a narrow selection of short-term measures rather than longer-term changes, as is the hallmark of a Keynesian, Krugman is right that Sweden has done some things right.
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
U.S. Economy - The ‘Real’ Goods on the Latest Durable Goods Data / Economics / US Economy
By: PhilStockWorld
Earlier today I posted an update on the December Advance Report on November Durable Goods Orders. This Census Bureau series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation.
Let’s now review the same data with two adjustments. In the charts below the red line shows the goods orders divided by the Census Bureau’s monthly population data, giving us durable goods orders per capita. The blue line goes a step further and adjusts for inflation based on the Producer Price Index, chained in today’s dollar value. This gives us the “real” durable goods orders per capita. The snapshots below offer an alternate historical context in which to evaluate the standard reports on the nominal monthly data.
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Tuesday, December 24, 2013
Economic Illiterate Proposal: Inflation Creates Jobs / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Shedlock
Those looking economically illiterate proposals can have a field day reading Ezra Klein's "Wonkblog" on the Washington Post.
In Full Employment Gives People Jobs Klein states (citing two others) "The Federal Reserve Bank's focus on keeping inflation below 2 percent effectively sacrifices the other half of its dual mandate: full employment."
It's difficult to know where to start debating such economic lunacy, but let's briefly discuss the notion of a "dual mandate".
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Saturday, December 21, 2013
After the QE Taper: The Fed’s Non-Plan Is Unchanged / Economics / Inflation
By: MISES
Frank Hollenbeck writes: As an economist, it is getting more difficult to understand the logic underlying current monetary policy in the U.S. There are two main channels by which economists think monetary policy can influence growth and employment. The first is to lower interest rates to spur investment and consumption spending. The second is to induce inflation so real wages drop, spurring output and employment.
Friday, December 20, 2013
Fiat Money Quantity and it's Increasingly Likely Hyperinflation / Economics / Money Supply
By: Alasdair_Macleod
By November, the most recent month for which statistics are available, the US Fiat Money Quantity (FMQ) had grown to $12.351 trillion. This is $4.96 trillion more than it would be if it had grown in line with the established average monthly growth rate from 1960 to the month before the Lehman Crisis. By this measure monetary inflation since August 2009 is now 67% above trend. This is illustrated in Chart 1 below.
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
Portugal Europe’s Economic Comeback Kid? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Investment_U
Marc Lichtenfeld writes: I had just returned to my hotel room in Innsbruck, Austria, when my wife called. Before I could tell her about the beautiful scenery and amazing experiences I was having on The Oxford Club’s European Opportunity Expedition, she stopped me.
I needed to hop a flight to Portugal immediately, she said. My father – who also happened to be in Europe, though not part of our tour – was having emergency (though, fortunately, routine) surgery in Lisbon.
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
If Money Printing Failed in Japan, Why Would It Work in the U.S.? / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Profit_Confidential
What the Federal Reserve is doing in the U.S.—its effort to get the economy going via its money printing program—has already been tried by the second-largest economy in the world: Japan.Unfortunately, the easy monetary policy implemented by the Bank of Japan didn’t spur the Japanese economy. So why would it work for the U.S. economy?
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Wednesday, December 18, 2013
The Mirage Called a “U.S. Economic Recovery” / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: DailyGainsLetter
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: “Just give up being so negative; there’s economic growth in the U.S. economy.”
These were the exact words of my good old friend, Mr. Speculator. Over the weekend, when I received a call from him, he added, “You see the average American is better off than before. There are jobs; and no matter where you look, you won’t find much negativity. Look at the stock markets; they probably will show a 30% increase for 2013.”
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Wednesday, December 18, 2013
Inflation in the United States - Keeping it Real! / Economics / Inflation
By: James_Quinn
“One only needs to reflect on the dramatic decline in the value of the dollar that has taken place since the Fed was established in 1913. The goods and services you could buy for $1.00 in 1913 now cost nearly $21.00. Another way to look at this is from the perspective of the purchasing power of the dollar itself. It has fallen to less than $0.05 of its 1913 value. We might say that the government and its banking cartel have together stolen $0.95 of every dollar as they have pursued a relentlessly inflationary policy.” - Ron Paul – End the Fed
The BLS reported the CPI this morning. They tell me that inflation is well contained and has only risen by 1.2% in the past twelve months. Our beloved Federal Reserve chairman is worried inflation is too low. It is fascinating that the only people worried about inflation being too low are Ivy League educated economists and bankers whose wealth depends upon the middle class sinking further into poverty.
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Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Economic Lessons from Nazi Germany - Starvation and Military Keynesianism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Julian Adorney writes: Many Americans, from the Glenview State Bank of Chicago to author Ellen Brown assume that the Nazi economic regime was successful, but closer examination tells a tale of rationing, shortages, and starvation. Learning why their economy failed can teach us how to avoid the same fate.
Thursday, December 12, 2013
U.S. Sub-Par Economic Recovery With a Propensity Towards a Downturn / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
It is a regular ritual for major US businesses: the end-of-the-quarter conference call in which the CEO dissects what just happened and gives us some insight on what to expect for the future of the company. My good friend Rich Yamarone, the chief economist at Bloomberg, is the creator of the Bloomberg Orange Book, a compilation of macroeconomic anecdotes gleaned from the comments CEOs and CFOs make on their quarterly earnings conference calls. He not only sits and listens to them present their views, he also picks up the phone and talks to them. He is very clued in on what's happening in the real world of business.
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Why Last Month’s Employment Numbers Should Worry Investors / Economics / Employment
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes:
Finally some good news in the U.S. jobs market?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday that, in November, 203,000 jobs were added to the U.S. jobs market. As a result, the unemployment rate went down to 7.0% from 7.3% in October. In addition to this, the BLS also revised the job numbers from October and September, saying 20,000 more jobs were created than previously reported. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 6, 2013.)
Sunday, December 08, 2013
Enormous Discrepancy Between U.S. Jobs and Employment / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Now that employment distortions related to the government shutdown in October are behind us, let's take a detailed look at the recent and growing discrepancy between jobs as reported on the establishment survey and employment as reported on the household survey.
Saturday, December 07, 2013
Will The Real U.S. Economy Please Stand Up? / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
Are economic reports finally indicating an acceleration in the economic recovery - or not?
Markets need to know. Investors need to know. Most importantly, the Fed needs to know.
The prognosis changes from month to month, even week to week, and this week even day to day, as expectations for Fed action move from taper on, to taper off, to taper on and back again.
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Friday, December 06, 2013
QE Euthanasia of the Economy? / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: John_Mauldin
Today's Outside the Box comes to us from my good friend and business partner Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners in London. Niels gives us an excellent summary of how QE has affected the global economy (and how it hasn't). I have found myself paraphrasing Niels all week.
I also want to call to your attention an interview first posted at ZeroHedge between my friends Chris Whalen and David Kotok. This is an inside-baseball view of a not-so-minor issue involving central banks and ZIRP. The FDIC charges 7-10 basis points on deposits for the national deposit insurance scheme. At close to the zero bound, the fee means that banks can lose money on deposits. As Chris and David point out, this is just another distortion being fed into the system. David was the first to introduce me to this concept (and rather passionately). I have not written about it because it gets complicated quickly, but it highlights a very serious problem and one that is not dissimilar to the deflationary aspects of the Basel III requirements, working at odds with what central bankers are trying to do. This goes with my long-held contention that the models the Fed and all central banks are working with are simply inadequate to describe the complexity of the global economy, and we have no true idea what we are doing, just a guess and a hope.
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Friday, December 06, 2013
U.S. Fed QE Money Printing Volume to Triple Not Taper / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The US Federal Reserve bond monetization support for government finance support, financial markets, banker welfare, economic props, redemption coverage, and liquidity fire hose functions will continue to expand and definitely not diminish. Only the brain-dead, the system wonks, and the deeply deluded believe the QE volume will taper down. They are paid to think that way in the public forum, their minds compromised, their hearts darkened, their paychecks dependent. As preface in order to properly comprehend the national situation, keep in mind that the USEconomy is stuck in a nightmarish quagmire, with growth steadily in decline at between minus 3% and minus 5% annually, when reality is required. The propaganda must be pushed off the road, the price inflation not labeled as growth, and the system perceived for what it is. The USEconomy is in grotesque deterioration with absent critical mass of industry, widespread debt defaults, retail liquidations, idle plant and equipment (including malls), and systemic capital destruction from the monetary hyper inflation and the imminent specter of ObamaCare tax. In queer fashion, the modern day US factories have become shopping malls. They suffer from at least a 25% vacancy rate nationally.
Friday, December 06, 2013
My Big Fat Chinese Plenum, Taking China's Economy to the Next Level / Economics / China Economy
By: HRA_Advisory
No, it's not a glandular condition. China's leaders concluded the third Plenum of the 18th Party Congress a couple of weeks ago. Party Congresses last for five years and Plenums (full meetings) are annual except for the first year of each Congress where there might be two or three full meetings.
Thursday, December 05, 2013
Three U.S. Economic Charts Obama Hopes You'll Never See / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Today I'm going to show you three charts Obama hoped you'd never see.
Brace yourself.
You're about to get a very different view of the "recovery" picture that the administration keeps painting for us.
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Monday, December 02, 2013
Revolutionary France’s Road to Hyperinflation / Economics / HyperInflation
By: MISES
Today, anyone who talks about hyperinflation is treated like the shepherd boy who cried wolf. When the wolf actually does show up, though, belated warnings will do little to keep the flock safe.
The current Federal Reserve strategy is apparently to wait for significant price inflation to show up in the consumer price index before tapering. Yet history tells us that you treat inflation like a sunburn. You don’t wait for your skin to turn red to take action. You protect yourself before leaving home. Once inflation really picks up steam, it becomes almost impossible to control as the politics and economics of the situation combine to make the urge to print irresistible.
Friday, November 29, 2013
Unemployed and Deployed in America / Economics / Unemployment
By: Jeff_Berwick
Wendy McElroy writes: Unemployment will be a global tipping point in 2014, and America will tip as well. Europe is already panicking about the likelihood of young people rioting in the streets next summer. The 17-nation Eurozone is predicting severe riots due to soaring unemployment, especially among the young. In September, the Eurozone's general unemployment rate was 12.2%; the rate for young workers was 24.1%. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, youth unemployment is nearly 60% in Greece, 55% in Spain and 40 percent in Italy and Portugal.