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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, May 23, 2008

Financial Markets Behind the Curve as Consumer Spending Acts as Leading Economic Indicator / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe past two quarters have seen anemic 0.6% rates of growth and we expect that personal consumption for the advance Q1'08 growth report will advance 1.0%, which would be the weakest three months of personal consumption since the beginning of the 2001 recession.

The primary catalyst behind the subpar performance has been the steep increase in   headline costs.  The price of domestically produced gasoline has increased 20.7% and the cost of food has risen 5.1% over the past year. This has eroded what little increase in wages that consumers have seen as the business cycle has come to an end. 

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Economics

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Iceland Facing Meltdown as the Credit Crunch Sinks its Currency / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDespite rising fast financially in the past few years, Iceland is feeling the chilly effects of the global credit crunch - so much so the fiercely independent island nation is considering European Union membership to save its tanking currency. A special report, jointly developed by U.K. affiliate MoneyWeek Magazine and our experts here at Money Morning, explores the pros and cons of Iceland's potential EU membership. For more information on MoneyWeek, please click here .

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Economics

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Western Economies Experiencing Early Stages of Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Mark_OByrne

Gold and silver continued to surge yesterday with gold up nearly 1% (up $8.25 to $927.80) and silver up 2% (up $0.35 to $17.97). Gold continued to rally in Asia but has succumbed to some profit taking in early trade in Europe. Gold has risen on the continuing oil surge with oil reaching new record highs (above $135) again this morning and oil remains near these record levels.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

UK Inflation Heading Back to 2%- What's Mervyn King Smoking? / Economics / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...The fiat-money experiment – along with the financial life-forms and hallucinations it spawned – has broken out of the lab and onto the street..."

WHEN ALBERT HOFMANN – the Swiss chemist who discovered LSD – passed away at the start of this month, newspaper editors the world over reported it as the death of the man "who experienced the first ever bad trip."

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Economics

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

China Now Exporting Inflation Abroad / Economics / Inflation

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMost of us have been waiting for higher inflation to erupt on the scene for some time. Government statisticians have been able to avoid the reality of market place. How many million words have been written on these web sites on nonsense of core inflation? Simplistic nature of that measure, which ignores developments in prices for oil and Agri-Food, is about to come back to haunt those policy makers that have hidden behind it.

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Economics

Monday, May 19, 2008

Getting Real with GDP and Government Inflation Adjustments / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith the release of last week's Consumer Price inflation numbers, the debate over the accuracy of the government's reported Consumer Price Index data was once again front and center. The official numbers showed that the overall rate of consumer inflation rose .2% while the over-hyped core rate rose just a paltry .1%.

However, these incredible April numbers were the result of a seasonal adjustment that removed much of the increase in gasoline prices. Unbelievably, the report claimed that consumer's energy costs were unchanged while the actual price of crude oil rose about 12.5% and gas prices rose 11% during the same period in question—that's some adjustment!

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Economics

Monday, May 19, 2008

Inflation and Interest Rates at Forefront of this Weeks Economic Data / Economics / US Interest Rates

By: William_Patalon_III

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYou can bet there will be a lot of discussion about interest rates this week, thanks to the release of the producer price index (PPI) report tomorrow (Tuesday) and the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Wednesday.

The PPI report will undoubtedly rekindle the inflation-versus-recession debate (with more than a few comments about stagflation thrown in for good measure).

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Economics

Monday, May 19, 2008

Is the Australian Economy Heading for Recession? / Economics / Austrailia

By: Gerard_Jackson

The situation could become very nasty for the Australian economy. For years I have been warning that the Reserve Bank's reckless monetary policy would eventually end in tears. Since March 1996 bank deposits have risen by more that 224 per cent and M1 by 200 per cent. Regardless of views to the contrary, Australia cannot continue to escape the consequences of the Reserve's delinquency. Glenn Stevens " the Reserve's governor " recently made it clear that he wants to slow aggregate demand, reducing it to a rate that is "significantly slower than it was in 2007".

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Economics

Sunday, May 18, 2008

The Fed at Interest Rate Crossroads Between Inflation and Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

  • Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRetail Sales Take a Dive
  • Accounting for Inflation
  • The Fed at the Crossroads
  • Sell in May and Go Away

Is the economy poised for a recovery, as the stock market seems to expect? Or are we in for another few more quarters of recession and/or slow growth? In this week's letter we take a look at consumer spending, inflation, and other data to see if we can find a clue or two to give us an idea of the direction of the economy. There is a lot of data, so let's jump right in.

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Economics

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Unemployment Rate: What Is The Real Story? / Economics / US Economy

By: Ronald_R_Cooke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf you have been reading my essays, you know I firmly believe the United States Department of Labor (DOL), Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) understates the rate of inflation (see: CPI: Sophisticated Economic Theory, Terrible Ethics). You also know that a low Rate Of Inflation means that the Department of Commerce (DOC), Bureau Of Economic Analysis (BEA) overstates “Real” Gross Domestic product (see: “American GDP: Can We Trust The BEA Data?” and: “Yes Virginia. This Is A Recession.”).

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Economics

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Offical Fairytale Inflation Statistics / Economics / Inflation

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSomeone ought to consider changing the calendar. Maybe adding a few extra days so that next month the shock of double-digit annualized increases in import prices can wear off before we're told there is actually no consumer price inflation. The mainstream financial press quickly leapt onto the bandwagon with headlines such as “Inflation remains tame”, “Consumer prices stable” or the most ridiculous, “High Gas prices aren't affecting consumers”. I couldn't help but wonder what planet these folks are living on. It certainly isn't this one.

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Economics

Sunday, May 18, 2008

China's Strong Currency Solution to Consumer Spending and Inflation / Economics / China Currency Yuan

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs China grapples with the consequences of its devastating earthquake, it has also begun to finally confront the destabilizing forces bubbling up beneath its economic landscape.  This week, several key Chinese officials, typically not known for their candor, conspicuously noted the need to both stimulate domestic consumer spending and bring down roaring inflation.  While at first blush these two goals might appear mutually exclusive, China's leaders do have a magic bullet that can hit both targets at once.

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Economics

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Devalue US Debt Through Inflation? Three Lessons from History / Economics / US Debt

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...Might the scam work? Can the United States really settle its debt with devalued dollars, free of all historical fall-out...?"

"WE CAN PAY ANYBODY by running a printing press," said Thomas Gale Moore, one of Ronald Reagan's economic advisors, when the United States became a net debtor to its foreign investors in 1986.

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Economics

Sunday, May 18, 2008

California Leads Way For the US Consumer Bust / Economics / Recession

By: Mike_Shedlock

The International Herald Tribune reports Californians leading the way to consumer bust .

As it did when the housing bubble began to burst, California is leading the way in the next leg: a consumer bust.

Squeezed by rising unemployment, inflation in food and energy costs and plunging home values, Californians are cutting back on spending. Besides causing woes for state and local government, the cutback is giving California's economy another knock and makes further job losses, home repossessions and banking problems more likely.

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Economics

Saturday, May 17, 2008

Rampant Money Supply Growth and Inflation / Economics / Money Supply

By: Zeal_LLC

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDue to all kinds of prices rising to levels that would have seemed inconceivable only a few years ago, inflation concerns are mushrooming today. And if there is anyone still not worried about inflation yet, they soon will be. Rising food and energy costs really affect the daily lives of nearly everyone on the planet.

But inflation is woefully misunderstood, even among financially-sophisticated folks who should know better. I've heard Chairmen of the Federal Reserve, elite Wall Street analysts, and countless news-media personalities claim rising prices are inflation . This common misperception is flat-out wrong. Rising prices alone are not necessarily inflation. Inflation is purely and exclusively a monetary phenomenon.

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Economics

Saturday, May 17, 2008

Inflation and the Fed Interest Rate Policy to Continue to Drive the Dollar Lower / Economics / Inflation

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe interesting and generally questionable conclusions in the April consumer price report provided a false sense of comfort in global financial markets that we believe will be temporary. The finding that the cost of domestic gasoline fell -2.0% month over month during a time when prices at the pump soared well above $4.0 per gallon in many areas was behind the modest official increase in the cost of living for the month. However, savvy market participants that follow the inflation data closely understand that the seasonal adjustments often tend to overshoot the true nature of the data and are prone to monthly revisions. We expect that the data in the coming months will be revised to reflect the reality of what is occurring in the price environment.

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Economics

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Government Inflation Data Does Not Match Reality / Economics / Inflation

By: Gary_Dorsch

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn an age where governments of every political stripe distort economic data to promote their own self-interests, it's hardly surprising that they present inflation statistics that are wildly at odds with the reality faced by consumers and businesses, and regarded with utter disbelief. In the latest US government report on inflation for instance, there was a glaring “seasonal adjustment,” for energy prices that cast great doubt as to the accuracy of the findings.

US Labor Dept apparatchniks said consumer prices rose a smaller than expected 0.2% in April, tamed by energy prices, which were unchanged last month. Utilizing an obscure “seasonal adjustment,” Labor figured that gasoline prices actually fell 2% in April, which doesn't reflect the reality of what consumers were paying at the pump. Furthermore, the IMF's global food price index rose 43% over the last 12-months, but the US consumer price index for food is only 5.1% higher.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Japan Lost Decade Gives Way to th New Asian Reality / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald

KYOTO, JAPAN - On one of my first mornings at our home here, my family and I headed for the Fushimi Inari Taisha shrine. Built in the 8th century by the powerful Hata family, the shrine is best known for the four consecutive kilometers of orange Torii gates covering the mountain on which it was built.

My wife's family has been coming here for centuries, making it a familiar and comfortable place that we enjoy very much.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

The “BRICs” (and Mortar) of the New Global Economy / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: John_Browne

In the early days of the American republic, fortune seekers were urged to “Go west young man!” Unfortunately, with the American economy now clearly showing its fragility, the rallying cry for today could be, “Go abroad!”

In the past quarter century, the center of wealth creation has steadily moved away  from the United States and towards new foreign competitors, especially the so-called “BRIC” countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, where economic growth rates have greatly eclipsed the U.S.  In recent years, this economic might has translated into much higher returns on their respective stock markets.  These movements are creating a wave of real wealth that wise American investors cannot afford to miss.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

UK Flawed Inflation Measure Explodes Higher, 3% CPI, 4.2% RPI / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) leapt higher to 3% in April from 2.5% in March, nearly hitting the Bank of England's letter writing trigger level of 3.1%. This confirms the Market Oracle expectations for a surge in UK inflation as not only the UK but all of the worlds major governments are engaged in the process of rampant money supply growth that is feeding through in higher inflation as too much cash is chasing too few goods. This is most visible in the commodities markets where strong price fundamentals coupled with the Bank of England's money supply printing presses running at full stream as evidenced by the £100 billion of new debt loaned to the banking sector in recent months.

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