Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, September 07, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (Sept 8-12) / Economics / UK Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of September 8-12 will see a heavy week of US macro data. Inflation will be at the forefront with import prices and producer prices released on Thursday and Friday, while the advance retail sales estimate for August to close out the week figures to be the primary market moving release of the week. The week will kick off with the Tuesday publication of the July pending home sales release. The majority of the data for the week will be published on Thursday, which will also see the release of the July trade balance, weekly jobless claims and US monthly budget statement. Friday will also see the publication of the University of Michigan’s preliminary estimate of consumer sentiment for September.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 06, 2008
Continuing Credit Crisis About to Get a Lot Worse / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis- Fool Me Once, Shame on You
- Delinquencies and Foreclosures Spike UP
- Unemployment Rises to 6.1%
- Action Is Needed Now
We are entering the next stage of the credit crisis, and one which is potentially more troubling than what we have seen over the past year, absent some policy reactions by the central banks and governments world wide. The crisis was started by an intense run-up in leverage by financial institutions and investors world wide, investing in increasingly risky assets such as subprime mortgages and then the realization that leverage could hurt. The deleveraging process started to intensify last year about this time. The easy part of that process has been just about done. Now is the time for the really hard work. It will not be pretty. In this week's letter, we look at the process and think about its implications for the markets and the economy, and visit some data on the housing market and unemployment.
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Saturday, September 06, 2008
Credit Crisis Phase II - The Economic Crunch / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The credit crisis having manifested itself most evidently during the past 12 months through the continuing tightening in the availability of credit to all sectors of the economy despite government and central bank actions of pumping hundreds of billions of dollars if not more than $1 trillion into the financial system so as to prevent a chain reaction of bank failures as the worlds big banks continue to announce ever larger bad debt provisions each and every quarter. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 05, 2008
China: Beyond the Olympics Bird's Nest / Economics / China Economy
By: Jennifer_Barry
I don't usually follow the Olympics closely, but these Games were different. The 2008 Beijing Olympics were an event of great and unusual cultural, political, and economic significance to the world. Most commentary has naturally focused on the athletics, and I have not seen much serious analysis on these other topics. I decided to highlight the economic issues behind the Olympics. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 05, 2008
US Employment Data Gives Sobering Does of Economic Reality / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
In the 1980's, the Ford Motor Company used the slogan “Quality is Job #1”. This was helpful in their campaign to compete with their Japanese counterparts who were perceived to have higher quality automobiles. It would seem, based on recent trends in the employment market that government is now Job #1. This morning's employment situation report contained some real shockers, the biggest being that the US unemployment rate is now at 6.1%, jumping from 5.7% a month ago. Out of the 7 subsectors tracked in the report, only government and education/healthcare are expanding. Since a good percentage of education and healthcare expenditures are financed either directly or indirectly by the government, it would seem that Uncle Sam is about the only one hanging out a Help Wanted sign these days. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 05, 2008
GDP Deflator Fantasyland as Investor Wealth disappears Down the Rabbit Hole / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
In recent months, investors have been unjustly chastised for their lack of consistency. In truth, they have an unblemished record of drawing the wrong conclusions. Last week’s 2nd quarter GDP report provides the freshest evidence of market cluelessness. In its report, the Commerce Department stunned economy watchers by showing a 3.3% annualized increase in 2nd Quarter GDP. The robust growth apparently wrong-footed those expecting further recessionary signals, lent further strength to the current dollar rally, and encouraged previously cautious investors to take another look at U.S. stocks.
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Friday, September 05, 2008
US Unemployment Soars as Jobs Decline for 8th Consecutive Month / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise.
Seasonally Adjusted
In the week ending Aug. 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 444,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 429,000. The 4-week moving average was 438,000, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 441,250.
Friday, September 05, 2008
Dodge Japan's Economic Bullet by Investing in South Korea / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: have been much more positive about the Japanese economy than most other analysts in recent months, largely because I believed that many of the problems from the Japanese recession of 1990-2003 were finally in the country's rearview mirror. In particular, I believed that the Japanese budget deficit – which, by 2003, had become quite acute – was well on the way to being solved through public spending restraint. That, in turn, would allow Japan to pay down its excessive public debt, giving its private sector room to expand. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
US Economy Second Half Stimulus and Bailouts Bounce? / Economics / US Economy
By: Brady_Willett
With U.S. home prices crashing, inflation expectations rising, and consumer confidence plummeting, you would think that the U.S. economy would be shedding jobs at a pace comparable, at minimum, to previous recessions. This hasn't been the case, at least not yet. Rather, despite posting job losses in each of the last 7-months U.S. nonfarm payrolls have held up surprisingly well this year. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
China's Manufacturing Economy in Recession? / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting China's Manufacturing Contracts for Second Month . Manufacturing in China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, contracted for a second straight month in August, according to a survey of purchasing managers.
The Purchasing Managers' Index was a seasonally adjusted 48.4, unchanged from July, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in an e-mailed statement.
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Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Contradictory Economic Reports Whipsaw Investor Expectations / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: No wonder this economy is so hard to figure out: The economic reports are as volatile as the economy itself.
Just when the dreaded "R" word seemed to be creeping back into the daily office chatter, a few economic reports last week seemed to reaffirm that the enhanced pessimism may be a tad bit early.
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Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Tale of Two Shopping Malls / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_Tustain
"...Overcapacity – first of credit, then of real estate – drove the price of renting sharply lower, bankrupting cautious investors along with big borrowers..."
A TEXAN CUSTOMER who came to see me a few months ago told me a story which illustrates the fine mess we're in.
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Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Chancellor Darling Pushes Crumbling British Economy Over the Edge / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Gordon Browns Darling chancellor finally showed signs of cracking-up at the week-end as the strain of continually toeing Gordon Browns party line of ignoring the financial and economics fundamentals by painting a repetitively bright picture for the British economy and financial system finally got to him.
He commented: "Economic times are arguably the worst they've been in 60 years… I think it's going to be more profound and long-lasting than people thought".
All Gordon Brown could respond with was "Et tu brutus", as his premierships final days fast resemble a shakespearean tragedy.
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Monday, September 01, 2008
Japan Economic Stimulus Plan Will Not Prevent Recession / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes: Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda will spend about $108 billion (11.7 trillion yen) on a stimulus package that critics say is more of an attempt to salvage political support than it is a serious effort to rescue an economy teetering on the brink of recession.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 01, 2008
The US Economy and Global Monetary Disorder / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon," so said Milton Friedman. After that it was down hill. The Chicago school so defined inflation and deflation that they largely severed the monetary root from which these phenomena spring. Hence a stable price level was seen as the ideal. (Even the great Knut Wicksell subscribed to the fallacy of the stable price level). Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 01, 2008
Can Exports Save US Economy from Recession? / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Since the start of the U.S. housing downturn we've been told that consumers were in trouble. After the subprime market shakeout we were told our economy was in trouble. And after credit tightened up we were told to expect an inevitable U.S. recession.
But yet ... we're not in a recession. At least not technically speaking since that is defined as two quarters of negative GDP growth.
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Monday, September 01, 2008
Darling Says UK in Worst Economic Crisis for 60 Years / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Telegraph is reporting Britain in grip of worst economic crisis for 60 years, admits Alistair Darling . Britain is in the grip of its worst economic crisis for 60 years, Alistair Darling has admitted.The Chancellor of the Exchequer warns that the slump is going to be "more profound and long-lasting than people thought".
In an astonishingly frank interview, Mr Darling admits that voters are "p***** off" with Labour and says the party must recover the "zeal" which won it three successive general elections. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Credit Crisis Pushing World Economy Into a Soft Depression / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
- It's All About the Spread
- The Coming Bank Credit Crunch
- More Thoughts on Fannie and Freddie
- Who Is Holding the Old Maid?
When is the credit crisis going to end? How will we know? The credit crisis is getting ready to enter its second phase. This week we examine what that means, and what the economic environment will look like over the coming quarters. We also (sadly) re-visit Freddie and Fannie and examine the risks that they put into the markets.
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Saturday, August 30, 2008
Easing EuroZone Inflation Sends Euro Tumbling / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting European Economic Confidence Drops, Inflation Eases . Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Europeans' confidence in the economic outlook fell more than economists forecast this month as the economy teetered on the brink of a recession. Inflation unexpectedly slowed.
The euro pared gains after the reports, which signaled the slump in economic growth is extending through the third quarter and a 20 percent drop in oil prices from a record $147.27 a barrel last month is easing inflation pressures. Consumer-price increases are still above the European Central Bank's limit, prompting policy makers including Axel Weber to indicate they are in no hurry to cut interest rates even as expansion slows.
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Thursday, August 28, 2008
China Heading for Post Olympics Economic Bust? / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Something is going on in China that simply does not add up. Let's start with the GDP. ChinaView is reporting China think tank forecasts GDP growth at 10.2% in Q3 .
BEIJING, Aug. 8 (Xinhua) -- China will record a GDP growth of 10.2 percent in the third quarter, roughly the same as the second-quarter level, according to a report released on Friday by the State Information Center, a government think tank. The report said consumption would continue to be a major driving force for the national economy. However, auto and home purchases ebbed notably in the first half, adversely affecting consumption in the third quarter. I doubt 10.2% growth is anywhere close to sustainable in a world economy slowing so fast that a global recession is visible on the horizon. Furthermore China has a major pollution mess that needs to be addressed. China is poisoning its land, air, water, and most importantly its citizens.
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