Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Brother Can You Spare $10 Grand? / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Peter_Schiff
The grainy footage of Great Depression soup lines and Hoovervilles now in heavy rotation on the major news outlets has been largely counterbalanced by a parade of economists who reassure us that such a protracted downturn is currently inconceivable. Their confidence stems primarily from the belief that government safety nets enacted since the New Deal, together with a Fed chairman who is a self-professed depression buff, will prevent a replay of the 1930s. As usual, this analysis is woefully optimistic and sidewalk pencil sales may in fact be a growth industry. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 11, 2008
UK Manipulated Inflation Statistics Erodes Value of Savings / Economics / UK Economy
By: Adrian_Ash
"...A short-back and sides for the value of Sterling – Trim, trim! Snip, snip...!"
"ON THE DOWNSIDE," said the Bank of England when it trimmed UK interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday, "the disruption in financial markets could lead to a slowdown in the economy sufficiently sharp to pull inflation below target."
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Friday, April 11, 2008
Falling US Dollar and Trouble with the Trade Deficit / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
Ever since the falling dollar really hit the radar screen of the mainstream media, one predictable, knee-jerk response was that this would be a miracle elixir for our ailing export economy. Further, they asserted, the weak dollar would cure the trade deficit. This is a prime example of what happens when textbook logic is used in place of reality. I dedicated the second edition of Economic Myth Busters back in September 2007 to the absurd notion that the weak dollar was good for the American economy. In the 6 months since the article some notable trends have developed.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Economic Data and Statistics- Distortions, Deceptions and Outright Lies / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Beware.
The greatest threat to your financial future is not the danger you see or the beast you know. It stems from all those realities that you don't see or don't know.
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Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Deficits Never Drove the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
The myth that President Bush's deficits rescued the American economy from recession has taken root among some conservative economic commentators. (Of course, if you are a hardcore Democrat then Republican economic policies are always awful). This is a typical Keynesian response by people who should damn well know better.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
The Future Actions of The Federal Reserve AND US Govt Are Known / Economics / Deflation
By: Mick_Phoenix
An interpretation of The Deflation Bias and Committing to Being Irresponsible by G B Eggertsson
Introduction - This is going to be a long letter. It will attempt to explain the rational behind the current and future US Federal Reserve intentions from the point of view of Central Bank thinking. Firstly, you will need a coffee, a comfortable chair and an open mind.
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Tuesday, April 08, 2008
US Job Less Report- Surprise!, Surprise!, Surprise! / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Market analysts are sounding like Gomer Pyle upon the release of the employment report – surprise, surprise, surprise! Not only did the headline job loss come in worse than expected, but also the revisions to past months shaved enough from the initial estimates to put the first three months of the year into negative territory. Investor's will need to get used to being disappointed, as a recessionary environment tends to bring out the worst in economic data. Dead ahead is first quarter earnings, with Alcoa stepping off first. Already earnings have declined by more than 10% from the peak last year and expectations are actually high (if excluding the financial sector) for a decent earnings season. While the large multi-national firms should do just fine (as exports are doing very well), we don't believe the current economic environment supports a generally strong earnings season.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 07, 2008
US Economy, Commodity Prices and the Trade Cycle / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
The current economic situation brings to mind 1999 when worries about the state of the US economy were piling up faster than rationalisations about the country's alleged growth rate. There was less talk of a "new era" economy and more about a "correction". What was it that brought about a more subdued assessment in so many quarters? Commodity prices are the answer.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 06, 2008
Is the US Fed Inflating or Deflating? / Economics / US Economy
By: Mick_Phoenix
Welcome to the Weekly Report. This week, I stick my nose in where it ain't wanted. (again)We get down in the dirt about deflation and we look at some stocks and wonder why and I show you my long term indicators.
Now, I'm not one to boast, really I'm not. No one enjoys the likes of me stuffing “I told you so” remarks down reader's throats. There comes a time when it does become slightly unavoidable. Is it ego, a demand of recognition? Is it a desire to be kingpin, the ultra guru? Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn, as long as my readers get something that helps make life as an investor /trader easier then my attitude is “so what?”
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Saturday, April 05, 2008
Ring-Fence the Bad Assets- Re-Arranging the Deck Chairs on the Titanic? / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Yesterday I expressed my opinion on the lack of economic substance of allowing financial institutions to value the assets on their books at historical cost or whatever they so desire ( Mark It as You Choose, but Is Enough Cash Coming In? ). Today, yet another "costless" solution to the bad-asset problem is being put forth in the Financial Times - quarantine the bad apples from the good ( Wall St banks seek to ring-fence bad assets ). ,br> Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 05, 2008
Inflationary Losers in the Great Solvency Slump / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Counting the winners and losers of the Great Solvency Slump so far – and guessing at the big winners to come..."
YOU DON'T HAVE TO be a rabid libertarian or Marxist historian with leather patches on his jacket to look at the current world banking crisis and ask " Cui bono...?"
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Thursday, April 03, 2008
No Economic Depression on the Horizon ... / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: Last week I told you that the mortgage crisis is not over. This week, the message I want you to come away with is that the mortgage and credit crisis do not present a doomsday scenario.
Don't misunderstand — I am not cavalier about the financial crisis the U.S. is going through. It is scary stuff. Probably the worst crisis this country has seen since the Great Depression.
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Wednesday, April 02, 2008
At the Gates of Recession / Economics / Recession
By: Regent_Markets
High yield spreads remain stubbornly high despite dramatic interventions from UK and US central banks. Banks are hording cash due to mistrust and fear over who will make the next big write down. Nationwide, the UK's largest building society, put up the rates on some mortgages despite there being a reasonable probability of a rate cut on the 10th of April.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 02, 2008
Paulson's Civic Robbery To Finance Hyper Inflation / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: John_Browne
Monday, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson announced the laying of the government's foundation stone for the next big financial bubble, heralding an era of hyperinflation and probable further runs on the U.S. dollar.
Of course, like most politics, there is usually a ‘good' reason and a ‘real' reason for actions. Today's announcement was no exception.
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Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Inflation, Gold and the Government / Economics / Inflation
By: David_Petch
Inflation as defined by Ludwig von Mises, “Inflation is defined as monetary expansion through introduction of physical fiat currency or issuance of credit”.
Printing money has a delayed effect to hit the system; it will be circulating in the system and travel through a series of bubbles. The end game for inflationary cycles results from excessive money chasing commodities. The phenomenon of inverse relationships between bull markets in broad market indices and commodities is well known…commodity prices decline to such low levels that supplies become critical, thereby driving up prices. An example of delays in pricing hitting the consumer lies in examination of Producers Pricing Index (PPI) and the Consumers Pricing Index (CCI).
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Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Inflation Deflation Battle / Economics / US Economy
By: Fake_Ben
Round One Winner: Schiff - In a recent article, I wrote about Mike “Mish” Shedlock of the blog Global Economic Trend Analysis ( http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com ) and Peter Schiff, of Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. ( http://www.europac.net/ ). I separated them into the camps of the deflationistas (Shedlock) and the inflationistas (Schiff) .Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 31, 2008
Further Weakness in the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_J_Nolte
The worst quarter since the first half of 2002 will be in the books at the close today, and not a day too soon. The news of the week included still poor housing data, although a few glimmers of hope in that the declines were less than originally estimated. Too were the refi and new purchase activity, reported by Mortgage Bankers Association, jumped as mortgages rates moved modestly lower. This week will be loaded with the usual first week data, including employment, which will likely show another contraction in payrolls, further fueling those sitting on the fence that we are indeed in a recession.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 31, 2008
US Interest Rate Cuts Ineffective If Banks Do Not Lend / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mick_Phoenix
Welcome to the Weekly Report. Click on the link for my update on Moral Hazard written for Livecharts earlier this week. Stress continues to increase across all markets, a fact that should make all investors stop and think about the root cause.
First up, we dig into the Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States for Q4 '07. Specifically I want to look at the growth of Domestic Non-Financial Debt:
Friday, March 28, 2008
Bail me out Bernanke / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Peter_Schiff
Now that the Fed and the Treasury Department have clumsily come to the rescue of the financial titans of Wall Street, it is now politically dangerous to resist similar pleas from just about everybody else. Populism is emerging as a dominant theme is this election year, and with so much largesse showered on Bear Stearns and JP Morgan Chase, politicians are demanding even more generous terms for consumers. In Washington , it seems that two wrongs apparently make a right. Another downside to corporate bailouts is that they provide the critics of free market capitalism with plenty of excuses to weigh down American economic vitality with even more unnecessary regulation.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Three Lessons from the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: A huge bull market in commodities takes a downturn. Equities are getting clobbered. The nation is groaning under insurmountable debts after the banks throw caution to the wind.
It's an election year, and some people say the market is over-regulated — others that it's not regulated enough. All the while, weather is making headlines — in fact, some people believe the weather could herald the beginning of the end.
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