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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, January 07, 2008

NO Economic Decoupling Instead Greater Interdependence - 2008: The Year of Reckoning ? / Economics / Global Financial System

By: Brent_Harmes

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhat lies dead ahead for our economy.- The main stream press is finally waking up to the economic realities that are starting to affect us here and now.  The January 7, 2008 Forbes magazine has an article by Ernest Zedillo, (former President of Mexico and current Director of The Yale Center for the study of Globalization) titled, 2008:  Year of Reckoning .  This article is written by a very studied and intelligent man that has seen first hand the effects of currency and borrowing problems.  He sees major problems dead ahead for the global economy and I think he absolutely hits the nail on the head with his analysis.  Here are a few quotes from that article along with my comments:

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Economics

Monday, January 07, 2008

Sovereign Wealth Funds - Saviours or Harbingers of Economic Apocalypse? / Economics / Sovereign Wealth Funds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Mega Picture - Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF's) are being hailed as the saviours of the financial world, but in reality are more akin to harbingers of the economic apocalypse for countries such as the United States and United Kingdom.

The SWF's have been stepping in of late with tens of billions in financing and investments into the cash starved US banking and finance sector with financial institutions such as Citicorp selling off large chunks every other week to funds such as that to the Abu Dhabi SWF at 4.9% of the company for $7.5bn on a fixed yield of 11%, the terms are far more favourable than offered to domestic investors. Most recent speculation is that Rio Tinto maybe inline for a chinese SWF bid of as much as $150 billion.

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Economics

Saturday, January 05, 2008

US Economy Forecast 2008 - First Recession then Recovery / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn this issue:
Forecast 2008: Recession and Recovery
18,000 Jobs? Not Really.
Housing: Going Down, Down, Down
Who's Got My Credit Default Swap Back?
Counterparty Risk is the Real Sleeper Issue
The Fed: Too Little, Too Late
Europe, Santa Barbara, China, and The Motley Fool

It's that time of year, when I throw caution to the wind and present my annual forecast issue. Jumping to the conclusion, I think a recession has begun, so the relevant question is to ask when the recovery will begin. We will look at the housing market, the continued implosion of the credit markets, and the deteriorating employment picture. Will the Fed worry more about employment and recession or about the very real inflation pressures? Oil? Gold? Which way the dollar? I am going to make some unusual calls, as well as highlight what I think will be the next looming problem in the growing credit crisis. We'll try to cover it all in just a few pages.

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Economics

Saturday, January 05, 2008

BIG BEN - US Fed Inflation Slight of Hand / Economics / Inflation

By: David_Petch

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBig Ben is the largest standing four faced chiming clock in the world and is known for its remarkable accuracy due in part to Edmond Beckett Denison who invented the double three-legged gravity escapement added to the original mechanism. The mechanism was created in advance of completing the masonry and final tower assembly, which is where Edmond found spare time for his improvement.

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Economics

Saturday, January 05, 2008

Fundamentals of Growing Public Debt a Big Negative for US Equities / Economics / US Debt

By: Brian_Bloom

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSummary
For those who are only interested in the bottom line, it doesn't matter what the charts are saying. Neither US equities nor US Treasuries represent sensible investments from a fundamental perspective. Investments should be in assets which offer protection against the demise of the US Dollar.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

United States Transfer of Sovereignty to Sovereign Wealth Funds / Economics / Sovereign Wealth Funds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Mega Picture - Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF's) are being hailed as the saviors of the financial world, but in reality are more akin to harbingers of the economic apocalypse for countries such as the United States and United Kingdom.

The SWF's have been stepping in of late with tens of billions in financing and investments into the cash starved US banking and finance sector with financial institutions such as Citicorp selling off large chunks every other week to funds such as that to the Abu Dhabi SWF at 4.9% of the company for $7.5bn on a fixed yield of 11%, the terms are far more favourable than offered to domestic investors. Most recent speculation is that Rio Tinto maybe inline for a chinese SWF bid of as much as $150 billion.

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Economics

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Taxes, Money and Surpluses: Fact and Fiction / Economics / Austrailia

By: Gerard_Jackson

John Stone's somewhat harsh criticism of the Howard government's fiscal policy was fully justified. ( Mr Costello's repeated budget failure , National Observer No. 73 - Winter 2007). However, Stone's comments on government revenues and budget surpluses missed a very important question: what generated such huge government revenues and massive surpluses? There was a time when the answer would have been self-evident to any economist worth his salt.

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Economics

Monday, December 31, 2007

Memory Lane and President Bush's US Tax Suts / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

As we enter the New Year I thought it appropriate to reflect on President Bush's tax cuts, the ones that the Democrats and their media flunkies screamed would wreck the US economy by generating an unsustainable deficit. It was easy — and still is — to spring to the conclusion that the Democrats' response was driven by opportunism and a deeply ingrained cynicism.

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Economics

Friday, December 28, 2007

Public Sector Pay to Cripple the UK Economy During 2008 / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The unproductive public sector renowned for demanding unrealistic pay hikes whilst at the same time failing to deliver competitiveness and anticipated output, looks set to go to war against Gordon Browns government during 2008. Which is already expected to be the worst year for jobs in a decade.

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Economics

Friday, December 28, 2007

Credit Crunch Time for American Consumers / Economics / Credit Crunch

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe subprime mortgage crisis is merely the tip of a very large iceberg. Beneath the surface lies not only a sea of tenuous loans to prime borrowers, but also an assortment of other liabilities backed by auto loans and credit card debit. Now that home equity extractions, "zero percent auto financing" and "zero interest" credit card rollovers are much harder to come by, Americans must do without the credit lifelines that have previously kept them afloat.

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Economics

Monday, December 24, 2007

UK Economy GDP Growth Forecast for 2008 - NO Recession / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe UK economy is being hit hard by the ongoing credit crunch with its sizable financial sector under strain and the UK housing market finally showing signs of the long anticipated downturn after one of the biggest bull runs in history. These and much other bad news will undoubtedly hit the UK economy hard during 2008, and in advance of this the media has finally turned decidedly bearish with much speculation of a recession during 2008.

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Economics

Friday, December 21, 2007

The Battle Between Inflation and Deflation - Money Supply to Decide Outcome / Economics / Money Supply

By: Peter_Schiff

Among those rational enough to perceive the looming economic downturn, a heated debate has arisen that centers on whether the slowdown will be accompanied by inflation or deflation.

Those in the deflation camp believe that money supply will collapse as a natural consequence of the implosion of the biggest credit bubble in U.S. history. As loans go bad, assets, which collateralize these loans, will be sold at fire sale prices to satisfy creditors. It is also argued that a recession will reduce consumer discretionary spending, causing retailers to slash prices to move their bloated inventories. This is the way the situation played out in the 1930's and this is how many expect it to happen today.

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Economics

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Global Inflation Surge Fueled by Explosive Money Supply Growth / Economics / Inflation

By: Gary_Dorsch

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe worst is yet to come for the global banking system, which faces potential losses of more than half-trillion dollars from investments in toxic sub-prime US mortgage debt. “The problems in the financial sector remain with us,” said Bank of England chief Mervyn King on Nov 19 th . “A painful adjustment faces the global banking sector over the next few months as losses are revealed and new capital is raised to repair bank balance sheets,” he said.

To defuse the crisis, the Fed, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England are pumping enormous sums of money into the banking system, at below market interest rates, to prevent a “credit crunch” from triggering a global stock market meltdown. “Central banks are working together to forestall any sharp tightening in credit conditions that might lead to a downturn around the world,” King declared.

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Economics

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Public Losing Confidence in Official Inflation Statistics - Inflation Brainwashing Starting to Backfire / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLarry Edelson writes:On at least three occasions over the last couple of years I warned you that inflation was already running at about 7%-10%.

It was a no-brainer. Like you, I experienced rising prices every time I went to the gas pump ... to the grocery store ... paid an insurance bill ... wrote a check for my kids' college tuition ... or bought new clothes.

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Economics

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Australian Economy Heading Into Stormy Seas / Economics / Austrailia

By: Gerard_Jackson

The problem with Terry McCrann's economic opinions is not that they are terrible but that they are largely shared by the rest of our economic commentariat. For instance, McCrann cheerfully reports that over the year to October credit for business rapidly expanded. Now he did temper his enthusiasm with the observation that the trade deficit jumped from $1 billion in July to $1.8 billion in August before jumping to $3 billion in October. As he put it: "Import volumes are soaring, thanks to the high Aussie dollar."

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Economics

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

US CPI Inflation Statistics Manipulation and Deception? / Economics / Inflation

By: Ronald_R_Cooke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCPI: Sophisticated Economic Theory, Terrible Ethics Is Institutional Deception Embedded In Public Policy?

Introduction
In late November, 2007, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced the United States had achieved a third quarter real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gain of 4.9 percent. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which (theoretically) measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.6 percent in the third quarter.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

UK November Inflation Drifts Higher - CPI 2.1%, RPI 4.3% / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Figures for November show that inflation remained steady in terms of the CPI at 2.1%, whilst the more widely recognised RPI measure rose to 4.3% from 4.2% last month. The ONS sited rising food prices offset by falling gas and electricity prices.The movements are inline with the Market Oracle forecast for inflation to drift higher into a January 2008 peak.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

US Inflation Soars - Largest Rise in Producer Prices Since 1973! / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Weiss writes: Suddenly and without warning, price inflation — long ignored and forever understated — has burst onto the American scene with the force of a cat-5 hurricane.

The November jump in the U.S. Producer Price Index has exceeded the largest single-month rises of the Bush 2000s ... the Clinton '90s ... the Reagan '80s ... and even the Carter '70s. It's the worst bout of wholesale price inflation since the aftermath of the 1973 Arab oil embargo.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

"Reckless" Lending by Central Banks Risks US Recession / Economics / Recession

By: Jas_Jain

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn Wednesday, December 12, 2007, leading Central Banks surprised the markets by promising to “rain money” on American and European banks. After years of Fed facilitating the pushing of debt on households by private financial institutions, including turning blind-eye to obvious abuses in the mortgage market, it suddenly is pushing debt on banks (ready money, or reserves, in exchange for questionable collateral) with the hope that they would continue lending to households. Would it work? Hell no.

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Economics

Monday, December 17, 2007

America's Currency Problems are due to Bad Economics / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBernanke has now cut rates three time in the last three months. Given Bernanke's Keynesian instincts it was always on the cards that he would go for cuts. The real question is how far will he go. Some commentators are urging him to cut rates further. The origin of this dangerous advice comes from the inverted treasury yield curve, with short term rates now at 4.25 per cent as against 4 per cent for long term rates. Now what these people are really saying is that Bernanke should force rates down below 4 per cent.

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