Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, February 02, 2008
US in Recession - Rising Unemployment and Slowing Consumer Spending / Economics / Recession
By: John_Mauldin
What Does a Recession Look Like? - The Starbucks Index
- Consumer Spending Slows Down
- Rising Unemployment Starts to Show Up
- It is All About Valuations
- Phoenix, Prime Rib and My Conference
What does a recession look like? How does it feel? What does it mean for your life and your investments? We explore these questions and more in this week's letter. I have been working on this letter all week, and think you will find it interesting.
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Saturday, February 02, 2008
US Jobs Lost Worst Since 2003 Confirms US Recession / Economics / Recession
By: Andy_Sutton
As kids we used to play a game where one person would hide something, and their counterpart would look for it. As the person searching looked around, usually with a blindfold on, the person doing the hiding would tell them ‘you're getting warmer' or ‘you're getting colder' depending on their proximity to the object. When the searcher would get really close, the hider would yell ‘you're red-hot!' and usually success was not far away at all. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 01, 2008
US Fed Insanity - Bernanke Repeating the Same Mistakes as Greenspan / Economics / Liquidity Bubble
By: Peter_Schiff
Despite the fact that the Fed still believes that a recession is unlikely to occur, Bernanke & Co. followed up on last week's emergency 75 basis point rate cut with a 50 basis point kicker on Wednesday. Not to be outdone by the Fed's generosity, the House of Representatives and the Bush Administration slapped together a $150 billion “stimulus package”, which can only be delayed by the Senate's desire to join in the bead throwing. On Wall Street these actions were cheered as heroic, with praise and accolades for all (what could be more politically courageous than handing out free money in an election year.) In a recent poll, fully 78% of economists thought these policies were appropriate…while 18% thought that they were not aggressive enough.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 01, 2008
United States Exporting Inflation Worldwide - From Credit to Money, Part II / Economics / Money Supply
By: Adrian_Ash
"Living in a credit era, we cannot go back to a currency era without massive upheavals..."- Robert L.Smitley, Popular Financial Delusions (1933)
WHY DON'T we just do away with all the different currencies of the world, and settle on one single money to buy, sell, invest and light our cigars with?
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Friday, February 01, 2008
US and European Economies Heading for Depression 2.0 / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Christopher_Laird
Depression 1.0 started about 1929 and ended around 1940 with the entry of the US into WW2. Even then, many economists say that, had the US not entered WW2, the depression would have continued for years in the US, and the rest of the world.
Now, since WW2, the US and West entered a period of unparalleled post war prosperity. This resulted in an incredible rise in the standard of living in the US and West. People don't realize, but much of the US didn't even have electricity in the 1920's!
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Wednesday, January 30, 2008
2008 Crunch Time for the Australian Economy? / Economics / Austrailia
By: Gerard_Jackson
The economy is beginning to look more and more like the proverbial "poisoned chalice". The Treasure, Wayne Swan, is complaining about interest rates putting "financial pressures on families". This bloke is every bit as bad as Costello. If he really wants to know what is happening he should visit the Reserve Bank, there he will find that the bank's balance sheet is collapsing, not that he would know how to interpret the figures.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Economic Stimulus Package Will Not Fix the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
This past week in Washington there has been much talk about the economy. It seems by their actions the leadership and the Fed is finally willing to admit we have a problem, and we need to do something about the economic mess we are in. This is a good thing. However, they are still not being honest about the root cause of our impending crisis and want to deal only with symptoms, not the disease.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 28, 2008
The Crash of the Bank of United States and the Great Depression / Economics / Financial Crash
By: Professor_Emeritus
Benjamin M. Anderson* - By the fourth quarter of 1930 the trouble with the Bank of United States gave occasion to grave concern. - The Bank of United States was a bank which ought never to have existed, and which certainly ought never to have had the name it had. One leading banker of New York went personally to Albany to protest against the giving of such a name to that bank or to any other bank, and was told that there was a political debt to pay. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 28, 2008
US Economic Booms and Busts and Monetary Policy History / Economics / Money Supply
By: Gerard_Jackson
The extent to which media commentators are ignorant of economic history, let alone basic economics, is genuinely staggering. We got a good look at this ignorance when the 1990s boom was compared to the 1960s boom. Then many of the same commentators started to compare the stock market boom with tulipmania or the South Sea Bubble. The crash, of course, was invariably described as an innate feature of capitalism, except if it happens under a Republican president: then it's his fault.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 26, 2008
US Economy Rescue Plan - "I know what you did last rebate-time" / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
We'd just finished a nasty fall in the stock market. Tech stocks had crashed, with the NASDAQ losing over 60% of its value. The economy was slowing down and a recession seemed imminent. Something clearly had to be done. The last thing a rookie President needs in his first days in office is a recession. What better an idea to curry favor with the voters than a tax rebate? I remember receiving my $600 Bushbate during the summer of 2001. Mired in graduate school tuition bills, I did the most un-American thing of all: I paid bills with my check. My rebate didn't really stimulate anything other than my own sanity perhaps. However, in order for the rebates to stimulate the economy, the recipients of the money have to spend it into the economy. In theory, this will cause production to increase and growth to ensue. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 25, 2008
US Economy Rescue Plan of $1,200 per American Family, More Checks Will Follow! / Economics / US Economy
By: Tim_Iacono
One Gold Coin for Every American FamilyIf American families are smart (and if they are able), they'll take that $1,200 check coming from the gubment and buy a single one-ounce American Eagle gold coin. Now that monetary policy and fiscal policy appear to be firing on all cylinders, it will probably be one of the easiest and best decisions they'll ever make - the only real question is whether or not $1,200 will be enough by the time the checks arrive in May.
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Friday, January 25, 2008
US Financial Services Industry the Next Sector to Move to Asia / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Over the past half-century, the United States has seen its global dominance in dozens of industries slip away. One plum that we have maintained is our gargantuan financial services industry, whose contribution to total GDP more than tripled between 1947 and 2005. However, the current global financial crisis, manufactured on Wall Street and exported to the entire world, may result in the U.S. losing its financial crown as well.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
No Economic Growth Without Savings / Economics / Recession
By: Gerard_Jackson
To say that the economics profession is schizophrenic about economic growth and savings would be a mild understatement. The economic commentariat tell us that consumption drives the economy and that consumer spending must be maintained if the economy is to avoid recession. They then tell us that we need to save more if we are to raise living standards. It completely eludes them that they stating a contradiction in terms.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 21, 2008
Will a Plunging Stock Market Send the Economy Into Recession? / Economics / Austrailia
By: Gerard_Jackson
So far this month the Australian share market has dropped by 10 per cent, sending some people into a panic and raising the spectre of recession. Let us begin by putting this in historical perspective. In October 1987 the Australian share market plunged by 50 per cent. This drove the economic commentariat to wail that the economy was heading into a deep recession.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 21, 2008
Is the US Economy Already in Recession? / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Figures from the Institute of Supply Management are painting a grim picture. Its PMI (performance manufacturing index) stood at 47.7 in December against 50.8 November. (Anything below 50 indicates a contraction). For the same period production fell from 51.9 to 47.3 while employment remained largely unchanged. Ordinarily this would be enough for anyone ' including me ' to declare the US economy in recession. Unfortunately the situation is not that clear because we have yet to learn what Bernanke will do in the near future.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Bush's Voodoo Stimulus Package - White House In Full Panic Mode! / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Whitney
The White House is now in full-panic mode. In fact, the falling stock market has the administration so worried that Bush will deliver a speech later today that will lay out the details of a “stimulus package” designed to rev-up flagging consumer spending. The desperation is palpable. Fed chairman Bernanke's appearance on Capital Hill on Thursday turned out to be a total bust. Bernanke was supposed to calm jittery investors with promises of rates cuts and easy credit. Instead, his gloomy predictions put the market into a tailspin sending the Dow Jone's down 306 points by day's end. Now it's up to Bush and Co. to pick up the pieces and try to restore confidence in Wall Street.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Credit Default Swaps: The Continuing Crisis and Big Story for 2008 / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
- Democrats Ready to Politicize the Fed
- More BLS BS
- Credit Default Swaps: The Continuing Crisis
- A Stimulating Political Package
- The Economy Continues to Weaken
- Europe, Phoenix, and My New Chair
After a wild week in the markets, there is so much to write about, it is hard to know where to start. The headline number says jobless claims fell 20,000. That would be good news, if it were true. Sometimes you need to look behind the curtain to see how these statistics are made. As we will see, claims were actually up by 26,000. I wrote in my annual 2008 predictions that the big story of the year would turn out to be credit default swaps and counter-party risk. I will admit to thinking it would take more than a few weeks for that to happen. And the Senate is hampering the ability of the Fed to work, and doing so for blatant political purposes, in an effort to reduce the independence of the Fed. There is that and a lot more to cover in what should be an interesting letter.
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Saturday, January 19, 2008
Bush Stimulus Plan - $500 Tax Rebate for Everyone! / Economics / Money Supply
By: Brent_Harmes
I couldn't believe it. I was sitting in the airport the other day waiting on my flight and CNN mentioned that the government is seriously considering helping our economy make it through this credit crunch by giving each of us a check for $500!
Here is a quote from The Associated Press about it.
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Friday, January 18, 2008
George Bush Begs Saudi's for Cheap Crude Oil - The Begging is Only the Beginning! / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
Begging for OilEarlier this week, news reports surfaced about how President Bush, during his recent trip to the Middle East urged the oil producing countries of that region to step up production to meet current market conditions. His plea, however, was less than well received. The Saudis, in effect, told Mr. Bush to get lost, saying “Oil production is controlled by the market”. I'll allow that this utterance is cloaked in ambiguity. It is worrisome, however, especially against the backdrop of persistently high oil prices. The Saudis have either an unwillingness or inability to ramp up production.
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Friday, January 18, 2008
US Congress Desperate Measures to Avoid a Recession / Economics / Recession
By: Peter_Schiff
For members of Congress desperate to avoid recession, the takeaway message that Fed Chairman Bernanke delivered in his testimony this week was that a successful stimulus package needs to be rapid and targeted. By this he meant that money would need to be delivered quickly to those individuals who would be most likely to spend, and withdrawn when and if the need for stimulus ebbs.Read full article... Read full article...