Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Will U.S. House Prices Drive The 4.8% “Consensus” Nominal GDP Growth Forecast? / Economics / US Economy
By: Andrew_Butter
I looked up the “consensus” for nominal US GDP growth in The Economist today; you have to add “real” to “CPI” to get the answer - I’m not interested in “real”, for me “real” is what they measure (nominal), and the un-reality starts when they subtract whatever weird and wonderful concoction of inflation is handed down by the Bureau of Labor.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
U.S. Economy Heading For Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: John_Browne
At long last, a good portion of mainstream economists now concede that a 'double dip' recession is in the cards for the United States. To head off the pain, sixteen top economists addressed an open letter to the President urging him to "stimulate" the economy with a massive new round of government spending. We feel this is a recipe for driving a recession into a depression. However, there can be few doubts that such a move is being considered in the highest policy circles. Flush from victories in financial regulation and healthcare, the Administration may feel the conditions are ripe to push through another bold initiative.
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010
European Sovereign Debt Crisis, Running Through a Minefield Backwards / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Before we get into today's Outside the Box I want to clear up a few ideas from this weekend's letter. There have been posts on various websites equating my piece on deflation with Paul Krugman. They say I am advocating kicking the can down the road and not reducing the deficit.
Wrong. What I have been trying to point out for several years is that we have no good choices. We are down to bad and very bad choices. The very bad choice (leading to disastrous - think Greece) is to continue to run massive deficits. The merely bad choice is to reduce the deficits gradually over time. As I try to point out, reducing the deficits has consequences in the short term. It WILL affect GDP in the short term. Krugman and the neo-Keynesians are right about that. To deny that is to ignore basic arithmetic.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Three Emerging Economies Bucking the Depression Downtrend / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Q1_Publishing
Despite the downturn, they’re absolutely booming. While most-watched stock markets are flat at best, their stock markets are running up.
Best of all, there are a lot of reasons these runs will continue in the short- and long-term.
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Monday, July 26, 2010
The Deflationary Cycle Full Monty, Eight Risks That Will Cause Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: JD_Rosendahl
In the past couple years I have written quite a few blogs. One of my personal favorites has to be: Mustard Seeds for Deflation: The Deflationary Cycle Full Monty. This was my somewhat complete case for a deflationary spiral written in August 2009.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 26, 2010
Four Shocking Economic Bombshells Bernanke Did NOT Tell Congress About Last Week / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Martin_D_Weiss
In his testimony before Congress last week, Ben Bernanke lifted the Fed’s skirt and gave us a glimpse of the disasters now sweeping through the U.S. economy.
But there are four bombshells he did NOT talk about:
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Monday, July 26, 2010
The Illuson of Economic Recovery, Major Indicators Point Towards Further Collapse / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
The talk of recovery pervades insider thinking. The major media worldwide plays the same refrain. This is a desperate attempt to befuddle the public with misdirected propaganda to preserve confidence in a system that is in a state of collapse. As CNBC leads the charge, loss of faith in the system grows with each passing day. In spite of control of the major media by elitists, talk radio and the Internet hammers away incessantly with the truth influencing more and more 24/7 worldwide. As a result of the success of the alternative media a good many investors realize we have a systemic credit crisis that has turned into a debt crisis as well.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Inflation, The Coming Rice in Prices / Economics / Inflation
By: Howard_Katz
Last week I argued that the theory of a coming decline in prices just around the corner was a balloon full of hot air, and like all such balloons it was bound to sail into the atmosphere. So far from this “deflation” theory being true, it is a deliberate falsehood and in fact is a very good indicator that the exact opposite will happen.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Credit Based on Consumption Not Savings, Real Bills Revisted / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Professor_Emeritus
Adam Smith in his Wealth of Nations worked out the foundations of a second type of credit that is based, not on savings, but on consumption. Later this theory was pejoratively called "Real Bills Doctrine" by its detractors. We stick to this name because the adjective "real" admirably captures the essence of a bill of exchange, making it different from anticipation bills, accommodation bills, treasury bills, which all have a measure of being "unreal".
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Thoughts on the Economy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Pravda
Marcus Eduardo de Oliveira writes: "… the ideas of Economists and political philosophers, BOTH right when they are and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood." -John Maynard Keynes
Nobody can ignore the economy for only two reasons: the first is that not enough resources for everyone, since desires are unlimited. The shortage, understood as market failure, is an incontestable truth. The second reason is that we are all part of the economy. The latest issues involving the economy also involve us in every moment. Thus, regardless of the evolutionary stage of each company, we always affect situations involving the generation of employment, income, combating poverty, hunger, resource transfers, taxation, purchase and sale of goods.
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Saturday, July 24, 2010
Wages and Subsistence / Economics / Employment
By: MISES
The life of primitive man was an unceasing struggle against the scantiness of the nature-given means for his sustenance. In this desperate effort to secure bare survival, many individuals and whole families, tribes, and races succumbed. Primitive man was always haunted by the specter of death from starvation. Civilization has freed us from these perils. Human life is menaced day and night by innumerable dangers; it can be destroyed at any instant by natural forces which are beyond control or at least cannot be controlled at the present stage of our knowledge and our potentialities. But the horror of starvation no longer terrifies people living in a capitalist society. He who is able to work earns much more than is needed for bare sustenance.
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Elements of Deflation and the Super-Trend Puzzle / Economics / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
Some Thoughts on Deflation
The Super-Trend Puzzle
The Elements of Deflation
The debate over whether we are in for inflation or deflation was alive and well at the Agora Symposium in Vancouver this this week. It seems that not everyone is ready to join the deflation-first, then-inflation camp I am currently resident in. So in this week's letter we look at some of the causes of deflation, the elements of deflation, if you will, and see if they are in ascendancy. For equity investors, this is an important question because, historically, periods of deflation have not been kind to stock markets. Let's come at this week's letter from the side, and see if we can sneak up on some answers.
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Saturday, July 24, 2010
Making Sense of the Economic Puzzle / Economics / US Economy
By: Clif_Droke
You can tell a lot about the state of the economy by simply looking at the covers of national news magazines. Or perhaps a better way of saying it is that you can get a good sense of how most Americans perceive the state of the economy by perusing the mainstream magazines.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 24, 2010
U.S. Jobless Claims and Housing Market Data Point to Worsening Economy / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Barry_Grey
Reports issued Thursday on initial claims for unemployment benefits and sales of previously owned homes confirm that the US economy is slowing dramatically.
The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims for the week ended July 17 rose by 37,000 to 464,000. The number was far higher than the consensus forecast of economists. It underscored the bleak prospects for any significant reduction in the unemployment rate, now officially at 9.5 percent.
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Saturday, July 24, 2010
U.S. Jobs Situation Worse Than Broadcast / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Hans_Wagner
The unemployment numbers for June 2010 were worse than articulated. The headline number said 83,000 private sector jobs were created and the unemployment rate slipped to 9.5% from 9.7%. Sounds like things are looking up. But, as you might expect, the devil is in the details and the details tell a different story.
Friday, July 23, 2010
Europe Is Jumping the Gun By Removing Stimulus! / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Sy_Harding
Last winter, global central banks were in agreement, assuring markets that stimulative policies would remain in place until a durable global economic recovery is secured, that “pre-mature withdrawal of stimulus would be avoided, and when the time arrived the withdrawal will be globally co-operative and undertaken in a coordinated way.”Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 23, 2010
UK Stealth Economic Boom, GDP 1.1% Growth Catches Press and Academic Economists By Surprise / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK registered strong GDP growth during the second quarter of 2010 of 1.1%, annualised to 4.4%, which caught the mainstream press, academic economists and even the City by surprise who had typically penciled in growth expectations of between 0.3% and 0.5% from just the day before let alone longer term actionable forecasts, much of the recent mainstream press commentary has been focused on the risks of a double dip recession as illustrated below:
Friday, July 23, 2010
Hungary Could Trigger Next Sovereign Debt and Credit Crisis Event / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Money_Morning
Jack Barnes writes: The biggest financial news story out of the Europe this summer is getting very little play in the U.S. mainstream press. However, it has the potential to torpedo the European Union (EU), and has disastrous implications for borrowing costs worldwide.
Friday, July 23, 2010
Plan For America To Control Federal Deficit Spending / Economics / Government Spending
By: James_Quinn
I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news. There are no easy solutions. There are only painful, more painful, and really, really painful solutions. Both mainstream corrupted political parties have had the chance to put the country back on a prudent fiscal path. They have both failed miserably. One party will spend the country into oblivion and the other country will try to democratize the world with their military machine. There are no fresh ideas from either party. There are the same old stale ideas and rhetoric.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Quadrillion Dollar Debt: Deflation 'Day of Reckoning' Looms / Economics / US Debt
By: EWI
What Will Happen as $1,000,000,000,000,000 in Global Debt Winds Down?
The biggest balloon in the world is deflating.
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