Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
U.S. Heading for Currency Destruction Debt Default Great Depression / Economics / US Debt
By: The_Gold_Report
As the world sinks deeper into what he calls the Greater Depression, Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey sees default on the U.S. national debt as inevitable—albeit probably in the guise of currency destruction. He anticipates further contraction in real estate, particularly on the commercial front. As long as stocks remain overpriced, he'll shy away from equities—except perhaps in favored sectors such as gold. In fact, in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Doug posits that gold juniors might "go up by an order of magnitude or more, even while most other stocks are going down."
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Affording the Unemployed / Economics / Economic Theory
By: J_M_Finegold_Catalan
While the unemployment rate continues to hover between 9 and 10 percent, the average amount of time wage earners remain unemployed has skyrocketed to previously unrecorded levels.[1] Keynesians fear that a weak fiscal and monetary response will allow the presently cyclically unemployed to become so permanently.[2] UC Berkeley professor Bradford DeLong puts it briefly, "Long-term unemployment has a way of turning into structural unemployment."[3]
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
18 Signs That America Is Rotting Right In Front Of Our Eyes / Economics / US Economy
By: Pravda
Sometimes it isn't necessary to quote facts and figures about government debt, unemployment and the trade deficit in order to convey how badly America is decaying. The truth is that millions of Americans can watch America rotting right in front of their eyes by stepping out on their front porches. Record numbers of homes have been foreclosed on and in some of the most run down cities as many as a third of all houses have been abandoned.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
U.S. Bank Credit Increases a Healthy 8.3%, But One Month Does Not Make a Trend / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
In July, for only the second time in the past 21 months, U.S. commercial bank total credit (loans and securities) increased (see Chart 1). And it was a healthy increase at 8.3% annualized. Obviously, we do not know whether this is the beginning of an upward trend in bank credit. But if it is, then we feel a lot more confident about our 2011 real GDP forecast, which has the economy's growth rate picking up. The primary assumption underlying our forecast of faster real GDP growth in 2011 is a resumption in the growth of bank credit.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Welcome to the Muddle Ages of the U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: EconGrapher
Before diving into the analysis, a theme occurred to me the other day; more and more the economic data from the US is looking confused. There are some parts of the economy that are showing some relatively promising signs e.g. manufacturing, but then there are other parts (e.g. consumers, housing, etc) which say - "you know, this recovery... it's not that great, things are still hard!" And thus we are at the muddle ages of the post-great-recession recovery. And so, I was just looking at the US total bank assets statistics, and there were a few noteworthy standouts in the data:
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Peter Schiff Says Dr. Keynes Killed the Patient / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Peter_Schiff
A morbidly obese gentleman labored into Dr. Hayek's office suffering from severe chest pain. The patient also complained that he was unable to consume his usual 10,000 calorie-per-day diet; in fact, he was feeling so sick that he could barely scarf down 9,000 calories. He plead that his love for food remained as strong as ever, but his body just wasn't keeping up with his demands.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
UK Inflation CPI 3.1%, RPI 4.8% for July, Bank of England Forecast Was for CPI 1.7% / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK inflation for July 2010 dipped marginally from CPI 3.2% to 3.1%, remaining stubbornly above the Bank of England's upper limit of 3% and target of 2%, despite virtually 8 months of mantra from the Governor, Mervyn King that high inflation was just temporary and imminently expected to fall to below the 2% target. The more recognised RPI measure fell from 5% to 4.8% and which compares against average pay rises of 2% which illustrates the squeeze that ordinary people are on especially as taxes rise and state services are cut. The BoE governor wrote yet another full of excuses letter to the Chancellor, George Osbourne as to why the Bank of England is failing in its primary objective of controlling inflation.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Recession Batters State Budgets Which Could Slow Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
There were a lot of questions last week when I wrote about public pensions. So for this week’s Outside the Box, I offer you some more information about how bad the state deficit situation is, and for your specific state. States are having to cut more than 1% of national GDP in fiscal 2011, as federal stimulus money is slowly drying up. And that is just states. Local municipalities and schools have a similar problem. And then add on the possibility of the Bush tax cuts going away and that is a very serious situation. It is why I am so concerned and vocal about the need for the Bush tax cuts to be extended for at least one year until the economy is growing above stall speed. The headwinds from cities and states are severe, as you can see.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Am I A Bit Too Pessemistic on the U.S. Economy? / Economics / US Economy
By: Matthew_Ehrlich
A Follow Up To ‘Us Economic Outlook Update’ - I have often said that the best way to truly learn and understand something is to try to teach it. That way, you have to deal with the questions that come from a wide variety of different views. Presenting an article, similarly evokes questions that make us dig deeper to better define or improve our explanation. Several comments I received to my article “U.S. Economic Outlook Update, Is the Downturn Finally Over, if not, When it will end?” http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21778.html said that I was way too pessimistic and that real estate bubbles usually last only a few years. They also questioned weather housing or employment were key issues to the recession as opposed to financial institutions causing the whole mess. So, here is my deeper explanation of why I think that this time it’s different and the intertwined housing/employment relationship has dictated the outcome.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Deflation, the First Step is to Understand It / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
"Fed's Bullard Raises Specter of Japanese-Style Deflation," read a July 29 Washington Post headline.
When the St. Louis Fed Chief speaks, people listen. Now that deflation -- something that EWI's president Robert Prechter has been warning about for several years -- is making mainstream news headlines, is it too late to prepare?
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Monday, August 16, 2010
The Connection Between Debt and Money Under Fractional Reserve Banking / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Robert_Murphy
Is Our Money Based on Debt?
Different groups often notice different aspects of the same phenomenon — this is the point of the famous tale of the blind men encountering an elephant. When it comes to the Federal Reserve, Austrians usually focus on how its tinkering with interest rates leads to the boom–bust cycle.
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Monday, August 16, 2010
The Global Economic Crisis: The Great Depression of the 21st Century, Review / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Global_Research
Kéllia Ramares writes: Orthodox economic theory does not acknowledge the amply documented fact that financial actors can not only influence but actually manipulate the market, make it move in a particular direction…. Economic theory does not address the structural causes of economic collapse…. We are not dealing with a cyclical process; what is at stake is a major dislocation in the financial, trading and productive structures of the global economy. --Michel Chossudovsky, The Global Economic Crisis, p16 (emphasis in original).
Monday, August 16, 2010
The Outsourcing Circle of the Global Economy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Akhil_Khanna
A lot has been written, over the years, about the benefits of outsourcing and its effects on the profitability of the global corporations.
This article aims to draw attention towards the Long Term effects of outsourcing to the same corporations doing so.
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Monday, August 16, 2010
Geithner’s Delusional Economic Recovery / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Richard_Daughty
Bill Bonner here at The Daily Reckoning writes that Tim Geithner, Secretary of the Treasury of the United States of America, is the author of the now-infamous “Welcome to the Recovery” piece he wrote for The New York Times, which I meant to read, and tried to read, but I could only get part way through it before getting visibly upset with such self-serving, lying, sophomoric qualitative excuse-mongering.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 16, 2010
President Obama's Nightmare U.S. Economy / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Gerard_Jackson
Sometimes it pays to keep flogging a dead horse. In this instance the horse is Obama's destructive economic policies. Before he was even elected I predicted that as president he would prove to a disaster. In December 2008 I warned that Americans would have to fasten their "seatbelts" and in July last year I alerted readers to the dangers of economic stagnation that his policies would produce.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Time for a New, New Deal? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: PhilStockWorld
What are people thinking?
It is interesting to see so many of the same people calling for a "double dip" recession while at the same time railing against government spending. The US Government is spending $3.5Tn this year. Admittedly that's $1.5Tn more than they have, but it's quite a lot of money no matter how you look at it. Conservative, born-again deficit hawks (they were born-again the day Obama was elected) will tell you the solution is to cut taxes and let corporations trickle their wealth down on the bottom 99%, well over 20% of whom are unemployed or under-employed.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
ECRI Leading Economic Indicator Pointing to Double Dip Recession or Just Fine? / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, Co-founders, Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), continue to pour out statements about the ECRI WLI that are worth taking a close look at, if not outright challenging them.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Russian Forest Fires Cause $15 Billion of Damage to Economy / Economics / Russia
By: Pravda
Experts started to calculate the losses, which the Russian economy suffered as a result of unusually hot summer and immense forest fires. The damage may total one percent of the GDP growth in 2010, which is equal to $15 billion, or 450 billion rubles. For the time being, the experts take account of direct costs and negative short-term consequences for the economy.
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Saturday, August 14, 2010
Double Dip Recession, Keynesianism Is Dying / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Gary_North
Promoting a revamped Keynesian economic theory – one without any guarantee of job growth – is the equivalent of selling a lifetime subscription to a revamped Playboy: one without any photos. It's a tough sell. Yet this is what Keynesians are facing today. This will be fun to watch.
In the last few days, we have begun to see reports from mainstream Keynesian forecasters and economists who are talking about the possibility of a double-dip recession.
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Saturday, August 14, 2010
Foreclosures and Mounting Unemployment, Signs of Slowing U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Barry_Grey
Reports released this week on initial applications for jobless benefits, bank seizures of foreclosed homes and retail sales all reflect a dramatic decline in US economic growth and growing social distress.
On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that first-time jobless claims rose by 2,000 last week to 484,000, the third weekly rise in the past month and the highest level in six months. As has been the case with virtually all US economic data in recent weeks, the figures defied the more optimistic forecasts of economists. They had predicted jobless filings would fall by 14,000.
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