Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, August 07, 2010
U.S. July Employment Situation, Lackluster Private Sector Job Growth Once Again / Economics / Employment
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.5% in July, no change from June's reading. The unemployment rate was 5.0% in December 2007 when the recession commenced. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009 and the cycle low for the expansion that ended in December 2007 is 4.4% in March 2007.
Payroll Employment: -131,000 in July vs. -221,000 in June, net loss of 95,000 jobs after revisions of payroll estimates for May and June. Private sector payrolls rose 71,000 after a downwardly revised gain of 31,000 in June.
Saturday, August 07, 2010
Inflation is Yesterday’s War / Economics / Deflation
By: Andrew_Butter
Generals are trained to fight yesterday’s wars. They sent cavalry to the trenches in the First World War, they built the Maginot Line for the Second World War, and more recently they used “pinpoint” strategic bombing to fight home-grown insurgents in Afghanistan and to blow up civilians and civilian infrastructure, to no discernable effect outside of increasing the number and the resolve of the insurgents.
Friday, August 06, 2010
Debt and Deficits Are Too High for Many Countries / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Casey_Research
David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report writes: A couple weeks ago, the family and I watched Dirty Jobs, an altogether entertaining show from the Discovery Channel. In the episode we watched the host, Mike Rowe, serve as a mechanic in the military. There were a couple of things that caught my eye.
Friday, August 06, 2010
The Austrian History of U.S. Money and Banking / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Jonathan Finegold Catalán writes: Traditionally, the greatest and most complete history of American money is held to be Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz's A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960. As a reservoir of statistics, Friedman and Schwartz's magnum opus is unrivaled. In terms of influence, there is no other book on the subject held in higher regard. Friedman and Schwartz challenge the conventional wisdom on American economic history, on the topics of the so-called Long Depression — a period which saw steadily falling prices, but unrivaled industrial growth — and the "dangers" of secular price deflation,[1] and the Great Depression.[2] But their empirical and positivist approach to economic analysis often mars their accuracy.[3]
Friday, August 06, 2010
The Inflation and Deflation Debate Deconstructed / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Jesse
'What most people call reason is really rationalization. Given a new set of data, most people will search through it only for those examples that support their existing beliefs. Their beliefs are really opinions, a tenuous collection of myths, anecdotes, slogans, and prejudices based largely on justifying personal fear and greed. This is what makes modern propaganda so powerful; people do not bother to think critically and objectively and act for the greatest good. And in their ignorance they can find the will to do increasingly monstrous things, and rationalize them.' Jesse
Friday, August 06, 2010
Disappointing Jobs Report as U.S. Economy Fails to Respond to Massive Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Today’s disappointing payroll report reveals that the U.S. economy has failed to respond to the massive fiscal and monetary stimuli that have flooded the nation over the past two years. Not only is the news bad for job seekers and political incumbents, but it’s also a strong signal for traders to flee the U.S. dollar. The malaise in the U.S., where stimulus is still the word of the day, stands in contrast to active recoveries in Europe and Asia, where governments are actively removing stimulus. As a result, we are now headed for the eighth consecutive weekly decline in the Dollar Index.
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Friday, August 06, 2010
U.S. Dismal Jobs Picture, the Fed’s Misguided Money Printing Medicine / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Larson
Can we just stop sugarcoating the issue? Dispense with the happy talk? Instead, let’s cut to the chase here: This job market sucks. Plain and simple.
By this stage in a true economic recovery, the country would be creating hundreds of thousands of jobs — month in and month out. But we aren’t. Not by a long shot!
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Friday, August 06, 2010
Keynesians, Fiat Currency, Until Debt Does Them Part / Economics / US Debt
By: Brady_Willett
Ben Bernanke’s machinations since the financial crisis began are widely celebrated as having saved the financial markets from complete ruin. Question is, was preventing the ruin of an over-leveraged, non-transparent, and bubble-driven financial system really the best path? For that matter, did the actions of Bernanke and company simply delay the day of reckoning and/or ensure that this day will be even more severe? Efforts to divine an enigmatic yesteryear notwithstanding, the reality is that as policy makers veer down one path we are precluded from knowing what the terrain would have been like down the other, with all of the ‘could have’ and ‘would have’ impediments limiting what can be said with conviction…
Friday, August 06, 2010
Will Quantitative Easing Spur Inflation? Job Creation? Credit Expansion? Do Anything? / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
St. Louis Fed James Bullard's proposal to start "quantitative easing" is creating a stir. Chris Ciovacco at Ciovacco Capital Management (and many others) propose the Fed can and will use quantitative easing to induce inflation. I disagree.
Thursday, August 05, 2010
Economy Heading for a Systemic Collapse into Hyperinflationary Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: The_Energy_Report
When Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke admits to seeing an "unusually uncertain" economy ahead, it's pretty terrifying to imagine what he's really thinking. What John Williams envisions—and he's by no means looking to the far horizon—is a systemic collapse, a hyperinflationary great depression and the cessation of normal commerce. Despite that bleak outlook, however, when the economist and editor of ShadowStats.com sat down for this exclusive Energy Report interview, he also had some good news.
Thursday, August 05, 2010
Government Employees, The Last Great Consumer Base / Economics / Government Spending
By: Richard_Daughty
Things in the economy are getting more and more stressful, and the company's revenues are down, precipitating the rumor around here that there are going to be more cuts in staff, and the odds are pretty good that I will be one of those unceremoniously fired since, ever since they fired Carl, I am now the company's worst employee.
Thursday, August 05, 2010
Consumer Spending – Another Drag on the U.S. Economy! / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
Most of the time in American history it’s been a good thing that Americans love to spend, a good thing that consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 05, 2010
Escaping the Sovereign Debt Trap, The Commonwealth Bank of Australia Remarkable Model / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Ellen_Brown
The current credit crisis is basically a capital crisis: at a time when banks are already short of the capital needed to back their loans, capital requirements are being raised. Nearly a century ago, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia demonstrated that banks do not actually need capital to make loans – so long as their credit is backed by the government. Denison Miller, the Bank’s first Governor, was fond of saying that the Bank did not need capital because “it is backed by the entire wealth and credit of the whole of Australia.” With nothing but this national credit power, the Commonwealth Bank funded both massive infrastructure projects and the country’s participation in World War I.
Thursday, August 05, 2010
Linguistic Nonsense and Liberal Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Kozy
Liberal economics has long been recognized by a host of writers, some of whom are economists themselves, as a religious-like dogma. Like Tertullian who believed "because it is absurd," economists accept the dogma not because it makes sense, but because it doesn't.
Whoa, you say, show me the evidence, and I will.
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Thursday, August 05, 2010
The Avoidable Economic Depression II / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Whitney
The economy has gone from bad to worse. Last Friday's report from the Commerce Department confirmed that GDP had slipped from 3.7% to 2.4% in one quarter. Now that depleted stockpiles have been rebuilt and fiscal stimulus is running out, activity will continue to sputter increasing the likelihood of a double dip recession. Consumer credit and spending continue to decline and data released on Tuesday show that a sharp increase in personal savings rate which climbed to 6.4%. Mushrooming savings indicate that household deleveraging is ongoing which will reduce spending and further exacerbate the second-half slowdown. The jobs situation is equally grim; 8 million jobs have been lost since the beginning of the recession, but policymakers on Capital Hill and at the Fed refuse to initiate government programs or provide funding that will put the country back to work. Long-term "structural" unemployment is here to stay.
Thursday, August 05, 2010
U.S. Employment Data ADP vs. BLS Job Reports, Who to Believe? / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
The ADP July National Employment report is out. Let's take a look.
Read full article... Read full article...Private sector employment increased by 42,000 from June to July on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today.
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
Obama Save the U.S. Economy by Paying Down the National Debt / Economics / US Debt
By: Graham_Summers
Dear Mr. President,
The following is a plan that I believe would bring about a significant change not only in the US economy, but in the US mindset. The last 30+ years in this country have been dominated by an overall regression in moral character and beliefs.
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Wednesday, August 04, 2010
The Myth of the Manufacturing-Led Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Andy_Sutton
They still don’t get it – or perhaps they do and just won’t admit it. Either way, it doesn’t matter much as the jesters, namely Msrs. Bernanke and Greenspan, continue to chirp their assigned lines, playing good cop/bad cop with the USEconomy. Right now, Bernanke is the good cop, pointing to increasing wages and the likelihood that the consumer will once again step up and rescue us from the grips of the double dip. On the other side of the room is Greenspan, talking about how that double-dip is still possible, although extremely unlikely.
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
GDP Report Adds to My Bearish U.S. Economic Forecast / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Claus_Vogt
The Commerce Department confirmed what I’ve been saying for weeks: The economy is in shambles, there is no growth momentum and the next bear market leg is about to strike!
Last Friday the Commerce Department reported that our GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter. That’s down from 3.7 percent in the first quarter and 5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009.
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Wednesday, August 04, 2010
Baby Boomer Dynamics, Housing, Jobs Creation, and the Falling Participation Rate / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Job estimates are often difficult to predict because month-to-month variances can swing wildly. However, census firing is about to take back another chunk of census hiring and I expect another bad looking jobs report this month.
Interestingly, Geithner is making excuses in advance.