Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
U.S. Consumers Refusing to Debt Deleverage Will Be Dragged Kicking and Screaming into the Age of Austerity / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: James_Quinn
10% Savings Rate + Consumer Spending At 65% Of Gdp = Retail Disaster
Now that the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, CNBC and every other mainstream media outlet have figured out what some financial blogs had figured out months ago The Great Debt Deleveraging Lie , everyone knows that the American consumers have not yet begun to deleverage. Consumer credit outstanding peaked at $2.58 trillion in July 2008. It has plummeted all the way to $2.42 trillion today, a 6% reduction over two years. The full $160 billion reduction can be attributed to write-offs by the Wall Street, Ivy League MBA run, banks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Japanese Economy Threatened by China Rare Earth Metals Ban / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins wites: Japanese authorities last Friday released from detention the captain of a Chinese fishing boat that was found in disputed waters. However, China continues to withhold exports of rare earth metals to its island neighbor.
Rare earth metals are crucial to Japan's high-tech industry, and the ban on shipments from China, which has been in place since Tuesday of last week, could cripple the country's economy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
If the Recession Has Ended, Why Is the Fed So Worried? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Claus_Vogt
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of U.S. economic history. It sets the officially accepted dates for the beginning and the end of U.S. recessions. And on September 20, its Business Cycle Dating Committee published an important statement …
It finally declared the end of the recession that began in December 2007. Here is an excerpt from what it had to say:
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Why the Statistical Economic Recovery Feels Bad / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds might be interested in charts of GDP minus the effect of increased government spending. The charts are from reader Tim Wallace who writes ...
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Forget a Recession, The American Empire is Crumbling / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Graham_Summers
I look around me and I see an Empire in Decline.
The US economy is clearly in a depression… not a recession, not a recovery, but a DEPRESSION. More than 40 million Americans (12%) are on Food stamps. Nearly one in five of us are unemployed of underemployed. Folks go to Wal-Mart at 11PM waiting for their government checks to clear at midnight so they can buy baby formula, milk and other necessities.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
U.S. Unemployment Rate Could be Higher in September vs. August / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 48.5 in September from 53.2 in August. The September reading is the lowest since February 2010 (46.4). The historical low is 25.3, registered in February 2009. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index also declined in September (66.6 vs. 68.9 in August). The decline in consumer outlook appears to be tied to the prevailing conditions in the job market. Although the recent recession officially ended in June 2009 and real GDP has posted growth for four straight quarters, the 9.6% unemployment rate in August is an elevated level playing an important role in the pessimistic outlook of consumers.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Q.E. Economic Engine Revs But Car Goes Nowhere / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The economy is stuck in neutral so stepping on the QE gas pedal is highly unlikely to accomplish much except increase the noise level. Yet, the philosophy at the Fed seems to be, if gas doesn't work, give the engine more gas.
So the engine continues to rev louder and louder, and treasury yields drop, but that does not and will not put Americans back to work.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Apologises for Being Wrong on QE and Stimulus Spending / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard the head economic poncho at the Telegraph now nearly 2 years from starting his mantra of deficit spending stimulus to prevent a debt deleveraging deflationary depression turns around and says that he has been wrong all along, that central banks such as the US Fed are focused on creating inflation rather than preventing deflation.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Points to Slowing U.S. Economic Conditions / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) dropped to -0.53 in August from -0.11 in July. The August decline marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline of the CFNAI, after two monthly gains. The 3-month moving average is -0.42 in August vs. -0.27 in July. The cut-off mark for the 3-month moving average of the CFNAI is -0.7. Readings above -0.7 after a period contraction suggest the recession has ended. The July and August readings of the CFNAI point to weakening economic conditions. The CFNAI is made up of 85 economic indicators classified under four categories - production and income, employment, unemployment and hours, personal consumption and housing, and sales, orders, and inventories.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
A Candid Appraisal of the U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: John_Browne
Over the last two weeks, seemingly good economic news offered some shreds of optimism to a stock market that was desperate for a pick-me-up.
The week before last, the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the US recession had ended back in June 2009. At the beginning of last week, news came in that month-on-month retail sales had risen by 0.4 percent. Combined with successful government debt auctions in the eurozone, increasing expectations that Republicans will take back the House (thereby blunting the leftward drift of Washington), and hopes that a new round of quantitative easing will pump up growth, mainstream analysts are developing a feeling of near-euphoria.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Has the U.S. Economy Improved in the Third Quarter? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Sy_Harding
Economic growth in the second quarter slowed to an anemic 1.6% from 5.0% in the December quarter, and 3.7% in the first quarter.Hopes have been that things began picking up again in the third quarter and that last year’s recovery from the recession is back on track.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 27, 2010
Generating Economic Optimism, Put On a Happy Face? / Economics / US Economy
By: Douglas_French
Since two years of zero interest rates, $800 billion in fiscal stimulus, and the bailout of any business remotely viewed as systemically important haven't resuscitated the dead economy, now the tonic suggested is optimism. American business owners and consumers need to quit getting their daubers down and keep the sunny side up.
Monday, September 27, 2010
Consumer Credit Depression, CBO Deficit Armageddon, Government Warnings of Financial Fiascos! / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Martin_D_Weiss
For my family, fiscal balance is not — and never was — a partisan issue. My father, for example, had little interest in politics but was passionate about savings, hard work and avoiding waste.
When I was a toddler, he used to sit me on his knee, teaching me and my older brother that money is not a toy or a game; it’s to be valued, kept in a piggy bank, and treated with due respect.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Community Bank Director Chimes In Regarding Small Business Lending / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
In response to $30 Billion Offer No One Wants - Small Businesses Hit by Deflation I received this email from a director of a small bank.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 26, 2010
The Economic Impact of More Trade Agreements / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Pravda
Mauro Dias Lourenço writes:In the second half of the twentieth century, Brazil was one of the countries that grew fastest on the planet, especially until 1979, which includes the period of the so-called "economic miracle," from 1967 to 1973. The fact that the phenomenon coincided mostly with the period of military dictatorship (1964-1985) does not mean that resulted from an authoritarian regime in which the State has stimulated the development.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 26, 2010
QE2, An Invitation to an Inflation Party? / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: John_Mauldin
This week the Fed altered their end-of-meeting statement by just a few words, but those words have a lot of meaning. It seems they are paving the way to a new round of quantitative easing (QE2), if in their opinion the situation warrants it. A trillion dollars of new money could soon be injected into the system. Tonight we explore some of the implications of a new round of QE. Let's put our speculation hats on, gentle reader, as we are moving into uncharted territory. There are no maps, just theories, and they don't all agree. (Note: this letter may print a little long, as there are a lot of charts.)
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Deflation Hits Small Businesses, No One Wants Obama's $30 Billion / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
When government passes out the money normally people are lined up, in advance, with both hands out. When that does not happen, it's because the offer smells like a rotten fish.
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Is a Flat Tariff the Answer to America’s Trade Mess? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ian_Fletcher
The House Ways and Means Committee has finally approved a bill that would attempt to crack down on Chinese currency manipulation, a key cause of America’s trade deficit, by threatening China with retaliatory tariffs. Leaving aside the bogeyman of a trade war—which China is unlikely to start as the nation running the trade surplus and thus the nation having something to lose—this raises the obvious question of whether tariffs are a plausible long-term solution to America’s trade problems. What would happen, that is, if America reverted to its historical norm (from Independence to after WWII) of being a tariff-protected economy?Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 24, 2010
Asia’s Digital Dragon, $80 Billion and 1.1 Billion Users by 2015 / Economics / Technology
By: Dian_L_Chu
With just over 1.3 billion people (as of mid-2008), China accounts for about 20 percent of the world population and needless to say, is the world's largest and most populous country. Although the country’s population growth has been somewhat slowed by the one child policy (in effect since 1979), its internet population has been growing leaps and bounds over the last ten years. (Figure 1)
Friday, September 24, 2010
Partial Equilibrium Analysis – Part 2 / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Andy_Sutton
In the first part of this series, we took at a look at Partial Equilibrium (PE) analysis in terms of analyzing a particular good or service rather than macroeconomic aggregates. What PE allows us to do as well is to both qualitatively and quantitatively assess the true effects of taxes and subsidies. We can also answer whether or not taxes and subsidies represent Pareto efficiencies. For our example we chose to look at the area of gasoline taxes. Many state governments are considering increasing gasoline taxes in the face of collapsing tax receipts. Intuitively, it would seem that such measures would be penny-wise and dollar foolish, but let’s use PE and see if that bears out conventional wisdom.