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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

Congress to Follow Fed to and Spend Money to Lift Economic Growth in 2011 / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed's $600 billion purchase of Treasury securities, known as QE2, is the Fed's second chance to stimulate economic activity after the $1.725 trillion QE1 package expired in March 2010. Chairman Bernanke presented his case for the second package on "60 minutes" last Sunday. The Fed is focused on meeting its dual mandate of price stability and full-employment, both of which are not within the reach of the mandate at the present time.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

U.S. Jobs Off Shoring Tsunami Quantitative Easing 3, a Perfect Stagflation Storm / Economics / Unemployment

By: Dian_L_Chu

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhilst most of the recent economic data seem to demonstrate a steady, albeit slow recovery in the United States, the November employment figures from the Labor Dept. threw a curve ball into the mix as the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 9.8% from 9.6% held since August.

That brought the jobless rate to its 19th straight month of 9% or more, which is the longest stretch since World War II, while the unemployment rate of people with a college degree (25 and older) also hit a 40-year high of 5.1%.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

Debt Bubble Chronicles, Here’s Europes “Lehman Event” / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Graham_Summers

Earlier this year, I noted that the European debt crisis was mimicking the US’s 2008 banking crisis almost to a T. Greece was the “Bear Stearns” issue: a minor player that was swallowed up in the drive to maintain the appearance of stability.

Then came the $1 trillion bailout, the equivalent of the Fannie/ Freddie “blank check”: a massive sum of money thrown at a problem meant to convey the illusion that the powers that be have everything under control and that systemic risk is non-existent.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Bernanke On the U.S. Economy, Fact, Fiction and Finally the Fix / Economics / US Economy

By: D_Sherman_Okst

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFiction: In this 60 Minutes clip Bernanke tells Scott Pelley, “The other concern I should mention is that inflation is very, very low…”

Fact: There is massive inflation!

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Economics

Tuesday, December 07, 2010

China Inflation Taking Off, Declares Price Controls on Walmart / Economics / Inflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChina's is overheating. Consumer prices in aggregate rose at an annual rate of 4.4% as of October. Food prices are up 10.1 percent according to China Financial Daily.

Moreover, accelerating inflation is hurting profit margins in China's service sector. China's non-manufacturing PMI fell to a nine-month low in November, with new orders in consumer service industries showing outright contraction.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Bernanke Is 100% Sure He Can Control Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: James_Quinn

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI don't know about you, but I'm not 100% sure about anything. The older I get, the less sure I am about everything. I question things that I was sure were true when I was 25 years old. I'm not sure I'll wake up in the morning. I'm not sure I'll survive my commute to work. That is why I was flabbergasted last night as I watched Scott Pelley interview Ben Bernanke on 60 Minutes. As a side note, boy this show has gone downhill. In the old days of real journalism, Mike Wallace would have scorched Ben Bernanke, pointing out his phenomenal ability to be wrong or clueless on every financial issue the country has faced in the last 10 years. Today, Pelley under hands softball questions to Bernanke and never challenges him. It was a pathetic display of journalism.

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Economics

Monday, December 06, 2010

No Economic Recovery in Sight, Reasons Why Global Capitalism Can't Recover Anytime Soon / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Shamus_Cooke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs the recession grinds on, politicians in most industrial countries have an incentive to make exaggerated claims about the supposed coming economic recovery. Some say the recession is over. Obama is in the group that claims we're on "the road to recovery,” while other nations can only spot recovery "on the horizon.” Below are seven important social phenomena that point to a more realistic economic and political outlook.

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Economics

Monday, December 06, 2010

Gold, Keynesian Economics and Wall Street Journal Deflation Idiocy / Economics / Inflation

By: Howard_Katz

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFriday’s Wall Street Journal was full of “optimistic” news for the U.S. economy.  It reported:

  “Retailers’ reports of robust November sales offered more evidence that the lackluster U.S. economy may finally be gaining momentum, despite stubbornly high unemployment.

  “According to 27 retailers tracked by Thomson Reuters, sales at stores open a year or more rose 6% last month, sharply exceeding a year-earlier gain of just 0.5%.  Online retailing also showed sizable gains.”

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Economics

Saturday, December 04, 2010

There’s Still Hope for Modern Economists / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Barry_Elias

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA recent blog of mine, dated Nov. 12, 2010, suggested that modern economists have modeled the economic decision-making process for many years with a high degree of inaccuracy.

They implemented a methodology referred to as the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model.

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Economics

Saturday, December 04, 2010

U.S. November Employment Situation Supports Fed QE2 Program / Economics / Employment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCivilian Unemployment Rate: 9.8% in November, held between 9.5% and 9.6% for five straight months.  The unemployment rate was 5.0% in December 2007 when the recession commenced. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009 and the cycle low (for the expansion that ended in December 2007) is 4.4% in March 2007.

Payroll Employment: 39,000 in November vs. +172,000 in October.  Private sector jobs increased 50,000 after a gain of 160,000 in October.  Revisions for September and October resulted in a net gain of 38,000 jobs in the economy and 6,000 jobs in the private sector.

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Economics

Friday, December 03, 2010

More Economic Stimulus Means Fewer U.S. Jobs / Economics / Unemployment

By: Peter_Schiff

Today's payroll report severely disappointed on the downside and left economists scratching their heads to explain the weakness. The explanation, however, is plain as day. As I have been saying for years, the US economy will not create jobs as long as the Fed keeps interest rates artificially low, and Congress keeps stimulating spending and consumer debt, punishing employers with mandates, regulations, and taxes, crowding out private investment with massive government borrowing, and preventing market forces from restructuring our out-of-balance economy.

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Economics

Friday, December 03, 2010

U.S. Labor Market Musings Prior to the November Employment Report / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLabor market indicators are sending a mixed message.  Today's jobless claims report continues to suggest that the economic recovery is not sufficiently strong to bring about a meaningful reduction in the number of jobless claims.  Initial jobless claims rose 26,000 to 436,000 during the week ended November 27. 

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Economics

Thursday, December 02, 2010

How can the U.S. Economy Recover When its People Have Less Money? / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Pravda

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHow in the world is the U.S. economy going to recover if the American people have less money to spend? Millions of American families are heading into 2011 knowing that either they won't be seeing an increase in income or that their incomes will be smaller next year.

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Economics

Thursday, December 02, 2010

Is Quantitative Easing (QE2) the Road to Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation? / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Ellen_Brown

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUnlike Zimbabwe, the U.S. can easily get the currency it needs without being beholden to anyone. But wouldn't that dilute the value of the currency? No.

A month ago, the bond vigilantes were screaming that the Fed’s QE2 would be the first step on the road to Zimbabwe-style hundred trillion dollar notes.  Zimbabwe (the former Southern Rhodesia) is the poster example of what can go wrong when a government pays its bills by printing money.  Zimbabwe’s economy collapsed in 2008, when its currency hyperinflated to the point that it was trading with the U.S. dollar at an exchange rate of 10 trillion to 1.  On November 29, Cullen Roche wrote in the Pragmatic Capitalist:

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Economics

Thursday, December 02, 2010

Auto Sales Held Steady in November / Economics / US Auto's

By: Asha_Bangalore

Sales of autos held steady in November at an annual rate of 12.26, which supports expectations of growth in consumer spending in the fourth quarter, close to the 2.8% increase seen in the third quarter.

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Economics

Thursday, December 02, 2010

ISM Manufacturing Survey – Slight Moderation in U.S. Factory Activity / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The ISM manufacturing survey results for November show a moderation in the pace of activity. The level of the composite index during November (56.6) suggests that the manufacturing is growing but at a slightly slower pace compared with October (56.9). Indexes tracking new orders (56.6 vs. 58.9 in October) and production (55.0 vs. 62.7 in October) declined but are holding above 50.0. Indexes measuring employment and exports dropped, while the import orders index moved up during November. The national index points to a mild slowing in factory conditions, while the November regional surveys of Philadelphia, Chicago, and New York sent a more bullish message.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 01, 2010

U.S. Consumer Confidence Advances in November, Another Bullish Report for the Month / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 54.1 in November from 49.9 in October.  Both the Present Situation Index (24.0 vs. 23.5) and Expectations Index (74.2 vs. 67.5) advanced in November.  There is a bullish tone in economic reports of November - payroll employment, auto sales, factory production, retail sales, regional purchasing managers' surveys and consumer confidence measures among other reports that have been disappointing - home sales, jobless rate, durable goods orders. 

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Economics

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

IMF and EU Hammer Ireland / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe terms of the EU/IMF's €85 billion ($113 billion) bailout for Ireland are much worse than analysts had anticipated. Ireland will be required to use its National Pension Reserve Fund (NPRF) to shore up its insolvent banks and to maintain government operations. At the same time, senior debt-holders will not share any of the losses brought on by the banks reckless lending. According to Bloomberg News, "Prime Minister Brian Cowen told reporters there had been no support in talks to ask senior bondholders to lose part of their stake on loans made to Ireland's debt-crippled banks." Thus, 100 percent of the EU/IMF's €85 billion "Financial Rescue Package" will be paid for by Irish taxpayers.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

U.S. Household Debt Deleveraging - Largest Decline on Record / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe soft trajectory of consumer spending and continued reduction in residential investment expenditures reflects the sharp reduction in household debt. Outstanding home mortgages have dropped from $10.606 trillion in the first quarter of 2008 to $10.126 trillion in the second quarter of 2010 (see Chart 1). Household credit card debt has fallen roughly $157 billion from the peak in the third quarter of 2008 to $2.41 trillion (see Chart 1).

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Economics

Monday, November 29, 2010

India: Land of Hope and Economic Growth / Economics / India

By: Frank_Holmes

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIndian markets have rebounded nicely from the crisis, outperforming both the U.S. and China over the past three years. As of November 23, India’s Sensex was up just over 6 percent for the past three years, while the S&P 500 Index was down more than 16 percent and China’s Hang Seng Index was down 43 percent over the same time period.

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