Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Stranguflation: Deflation and Inflation Where it Hurts America Most / Economics / Deflation
By: Janet_Tavakoli
The U.S. is suffering from high unemployment combined with too much consumer debt in a weak economy. Current stock market exuberance reflects earnings increases at selective companies that benefited from sputtering stimulus programs. In late 2007 through the fall of 2008, our economy had an appendix attack, and Congress issued potent addictive painkillers instead of fixing our problems.
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010
ECRI Stock-Market Prophet Calling for a Double-Dip Recession? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Money_Morning
Jack Barnes writes:
The Economic Cycle Research Institute - referred to as the "ECRI" by anyone in the know on Wall Street - has correctly called every U.S. recession during the last 45 years.
To work its magic, theECRI charts the weekly changes in an index ofLeading Economic Indicators (WLI). Market professionals like myself very quietly use the same group of indicators to call market tops and bottoms. The indicators are so accurate in terms of what they have to say about the future that I refer to ECRI and the WLI as "The Prophet."
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Demographics, Destiny and Asset Markets, Will it be Deflation or Inflation? / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
I am in Minnesota this morning doing a speech, but do have a very good candidate for this week’s Outside the Box. Tony Boeckh just published a piece by George Magnus on demographics and the markets that I think is very thought-provoking. Demographics is something I think about a lot and you should too. I will let Tony do the introduction of George.
Have a good week. My goal is to write this Friday’s letter a little early so that I can get in some fishing time. And when you look at today’s ISM number, look past the headline number, which is just fine, and look at the weakness in the leading indicators. New orders declined by 5 points to 53.5, its lowest level since June 2009. Also, imports slowed noticeably, which is a bad omen for domestic demand. Overall, the ISM index suggests that real GDP and factory output slowed early this quarter.
Tuesday, August 03, 2010
U.S. Economic Recovery Heading For Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bernanke thinks consumers are going to sustain the economy, but small businesses, the lifeblood of the economy sure disagree. Please consider Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index Hits New Low in July
Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Debunking the Mainstream Economists Deflation Myths / Economics / Deflation
By: Puru_Saxena
BIG PICTURE – Many prominent economists define deflation as a decline in the general price level within an economy. To make matters worse, these academics use the establishment’s highly manipulated inflation data as their yardstick. Therefore, when the heavily massaged Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) show a moderate increase, these folks celebrate the ‘perfect scenario’ of moderate inflation and when the CPI and PPI contract, they worry about deflation. Unfortunately, the vast majority of people blindly follow the views of the mainstream economists. Consequently, they end up making costly mistakes with their capital.
Monday, August 02, 2010
Naked Capitalism Temporary Insanity Defending Unions, Blog Wars? / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
I remain in awe of how people who can think clearly most of the time, occasionally stray off the deep end defending socialist idiocy. This is one of those times.
For some inexplicable reason Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism has chosen to re-post Summer Rerun: Debunking the Notion that Unions Hurt Productivity
Monday, August 02, 2010
ISM Manufacturing Report Points Slowing U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The July ISM manufacturing composite index slipped 0.7 points to a level of 55.5. This marks the third consecutive decline in this index (see Chart 1). Although the supplier deliveries and employment indexes increased marginally (by 1.0 and 0.8 points, respectively), the July composite index would have declined by significantly more if it had not been for the 4.4 point increase in the inventories index.
Monday, August 02, 2010
Nonsense on the Federal Budget Deficit Question / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
In a recent piece I reported the shocking ignorance in a Huffington Post article on the alleged harmlessness of the federal deficit. Several readers wrote to tell me that as bad as the HuffPo article was, James Galbraith's interview with Ezra Klein was even worse.
They were right. In today's piece I'll walk through some of Galbraith's biggest whoppers.
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Monday, August 02, 2010
China Leapfrogs Japan To Become World’s No. 2 Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
As the old Avis rental car slogan used to say: "When you're No. 2, you try harder."
With the growth rates that its economy has turned in the past few years, no economist could ever accuse China's leader of not trying hard. China now claims to have jumped over Japan to take over the No. 2 spot in the world economic pecking order.
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Monday, August 02, 2010
UK Population Growth and Immigration Trend Forecast 2010 to 2030 / Economics / Demographics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst Britain is rarely if ever at the top of the various quality of life statistics such as economic growth, average earnings, disposable incomes, living space, healthcare services, pensions, personal freedoms and education. However when taken as a whole package, Britain remains one of the worlds most civilised countries that acts as a beacon that continues to attract peoples form all over the developing and developed world, which continues to push the UK population ever higher despite many Western European countries experiencing population stagnation or even falling populations such as Germany, where in fact 1/3rd of the annual rise in Europe's population as a whole takes place in Britain.
Sunday, August 01, 2010
U.S. Outbound Travel Expenditure Says No Double Dip Recession / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Andrew_Butter
When inflation (or deflation) are so low that measurement errors can be bigger than “The Answer”, and when an economy is in the process of re-adjusting and so “measurement” of GDP itself is also and issue – witness the size of the revisions; and when traditional “markers” of drivers of economic activity are reacting in a “non-traditional way”, it can be hard to figure what’s going to happen next.
Sunday, August 01, 2010
Austrian Money Supply Metrics, Now Global / Economics / Money Supply
By: Michael_Pollaro
On April 19th, 2010, I penned an essay called Money supply metrics, the Austrian take in which I presented the logic behind what I believe to be the correct formulation of the money supply, one based on the monetary insights of the Austrian school of economics.
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Saturday, July 31, 2010
Are We Out of the Recession Yet? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
Are We There Yet?
Driving with No Spare
A Muddle Through Economy
Absent a Policy Mistake
"... [this economic condition] has been brought about by policies which the majority of economists recommended and even urged governments to pursue. We have indeed at the moment little cause for pride: as a profession we have made a mess of things."
- Friedrich August von Hayek, Nobel Speech 2010 1974
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Nielson: The End Game is Either Hyperinflation or Debt Implosion – Got Gold? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Lorimer_Wilson
“The collapse of the U.S. economy is a certainty - only the manner in which it will happen has yet to be determined. It is just a matter of time before the global derivatives bubble will produce the same result that has occurred to every other currency not backed by gold throughout history - those currencies, our ‘money’, will become worthless.”
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Federal Government's Trillion Dollar Deficits Crowding Out Our Future Wealth / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
The standard justification for the Federal government's trillion-dollar-plus deficits for the next decade is this: "Without this stimulus, the economy will fall into another Great Depression." This is the Keynesian Party Line, all over the West. It is promoted by almost everyone. Even normally free market economists have gotten on board.
Friday, July 30, 2010
The History of Capitalism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
The history of capitalism as it has operated in the last two hundred years in the realm of Western civilization is the record of a steady rise in the wage earners' standard of living. The inherent mark of capitalism is that it is mass production for mass consumption directed by the most energetic and far-sighted individuals, unflaggingly aiming at improvement. Its driving force is the profit motive, the instrumentality of which forces the businessman constantly to provide the consumers with more, better, and cheaper amenities. An excess of profits over losses can appear only in a progressing economy and only to the extent to which the masses' standard of living improves. Thus capitalism is the system under which the keenest and most agile minds are driven to promote to the best of their abilities the welfare of the laggard many.
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Friday, July 30, 2010
Has Economics Run Out of Ideas? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Andrew_Butter
Jonathan Finegold Catalan provides an excellent review of the current state of intellectual paralysis in the economics profession: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21501.html
He describes how right-now the debate hinges on re-examination and re-hashing of the ideas of the two legends of economic thinking, John Maynard Keynes and Mises-Hayek (the Austrian School).
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Friday, July 30, 2010
Should China Dump U.S. Dollars, Treasury Bonds for Commodities? Can Global Trade Collapse? / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Every time there is a little blip by China in its purchasing or holding of US treasuries, hyperinflationists come out of the woodwork ranting about the "Nuclear Option" of China dumping treasuries en masse.
Such fears are extremely overblown for several reasons.
Friday, July 30, 2010
Why is deflation and depression inevitable in debt based monetary system like ours? / Economics / Deflation
By: Mansoor_H_Khan
Money is civilization’s most liquid asset. An asset is something of value. Most liquid means that this is the asset most employees want to get paid in and this is the asset most vendors demand for payment. For United States of America most employees demand payment in U.S. dollars and most vendors price their products in U.S. dollars and demand payment in U.S. dollars.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Austrian Business Cycle Theory Vs Keynesians / Economics / Economic Theory
By: J_M_Finegold_Catalan
The current recession has brought back discussion on the merits of countercyclical fiscal and monetary policy. Broadly speaking, the economics profession is divided into two camps. One side is made up of "liquidationists" and "deficit hawks," supporting tight monetary policy and low — or no — government spending. The other group is composed of those fearing a fall in prices, who support easy credit and expansive fiscal policy to combat it. While most economists probably fall in between, this dichotomy represents the two poles. The extremes are occupied by the Austrian School on one end and Paul Krugman on (or close enough to) the other.