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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, December 05, 2014

Central Banks Battling Deflation at Any Cost / Economics / Deflation

By: John_Mauldin

Jared Dillian writes: When I was in junior high, my friend Scott had this Billy Crystal tape that we passed back and forth to each other. I still like Billy Crystal, but let’s just say he was truly hilarious when I was 13 back in 1987.

He had this routine about old codgers who used to tell you how hard life was in the old days.

“We had no air…” he’d say, in an old man voice. “No food. We ate wool coats and we were happy.”

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Economics

Saturday, November 29, 2014

US Unemployment At Lowest Rate Since 2009 / Economics / Unemployment

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

After painstaking growth, complaints of padded figures, and fears of underemployment among those lucky enough to have jobs, America finally sees its national unemployment rates in the 5.2-5.5% range. At this level, the Federal Reserve considers the market to represent full employment, with very nearly all of those actively desiring employment working or reasonably able to find work. An added bonus for government forecasters is that this rate of improvement is in keeping with their predictions, but comes a full quarter early.

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Economics

Thursday, November 27, 2014

The Price Of Oil Exposes The True State Of The Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

We should be glad the price of oil has fallen the way it has (losing another 6% today as I write this). Not because it makes the gas in our cars a bit cheaper, that’s nothing compared to the other service the price slump provides. That is, it allows us to see how the economy is really doing, without the multilayered veil of propaganda, spin, fixed data and bailouts and handouts for the banking system.

It shows us the huge extent to which consumer spending is falling, how much poorer people have become as stock markets set records. It also shows us how desperate producing nations have become, who have seen a third of their often principal source of revenue fall away in a few months’ time. Nigeria was first in line to devalue its currency, others will follow suit.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Clash of Generations - Why Millennials Still Live at Home; Not Jobs, Student Debt, or Housing / Economics / Demographics

By: Mike_Shedlock

A New York Fed research paper wonders What's Keeping Millennials at Home? Is it Debt, Jobs, or Housing?

The paper says "it's a mystery" why the housing recovery did not have a bigger impact on millennials living at home.

The research paper, written by Zachary Bleemer, Meta Brown, Donghoon Lee, and Wilbert van der Klaauw notes correlations to debt, jobs and housing.

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Economics

Monday, November 24, 2014

Where Is China Economy On The Map Exactly? / Economics / China Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

A lot of people these days vent their opinions on what’s happening with the Chinese economy, and the opinions are so all over the place they could hardly be more different. Which is interesting, to say the least. Apparently it’s still very hard to understand what does happen ‘over there’.

And I don’t at all mean to suggest that I would know better than Morgan Stanley’s former Asia go-to-man Stephen Roach, or hedge funder Hugh Hendry, or Bob Davis, who just spent 4 years in the country for the Wall Street Journal, or Gwynn Guilford at Quartz, or local Reuters correspondents. It’s just that between them, they disagree so vastly you’d think they’re playing a game with your mind.

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Economics

Monday, November 24, 2014

Most of The World Economies Panic - Is The US Next? / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Rubino

It's been quite a month.

In late October Japan, despite a year of fairly aggressive quantitative easing, dropped back into recession and concluded that even easier money was the cure for its ills. It announced a debt monetization plan of almost science-fictional proportions in which the amount of new yen to be created, as a percentage of GDP, will be equivalent to $3 trillion a year in the US. See Reactions to BoJ's Kuroda's Stunning, Doubled-Down QE 'Experiment'

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Economics

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Malaysia's Subsidy and Budget Deficit Conundrum / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

In reality, running a Government is similar to running a company in many respects. Both have revenues and spending to adhere to. When a Government runs a deficit then it needs to sell Treasury bills, notes and bonds to raise funds. Similarly when a company is short of cash, it can raise funds by selling securities. In a way it can be said that the total debt incurred by the Government is the total outstanding government securities. Thus the total or national debt at any point of time is the sum of all prior deficits. Hence, when a Government runs a deficit, the national debt will be increased by the amount of the deficit.

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Economics

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Euro-Zone Tooth Fairy Economics, Spain Needs to leave the Euro / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Mike_Shedlock

Michael Pettis has a very interesting article on the Spanish news site ABC regarding a possible default of Spain and the eventual breakup of the eurozone.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

European Economies in Perpetual State of Shock, What's Scarier Than Deflation? / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

As early as 2011, our analysis warned that Europe's deflation was coming -- here's why

For the economies of Europe, the past few months have felt like one long ice-bucket challenge that never ends: A perpetual state of shock induced by the bone-chilling fact that deflation

"...has become a reality in many European countries." (Oct. 24, New York Times)

At last count, eight European nations are now in outright deflation, including:

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Economics

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

The Abenomics Japan Economic Death Spiral / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

As Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe has turned his country into a petri dish of Keynesian ideas, the trajectory of Japan's economy has much to teach us about the wisdom of those policies. And although the warning sirens are blasting at the highest volumes imaginable, few economists can hear the alarm. (A longer version of this article can be found in Euro Pacific Capital's Global Investor Newsletter.)

Data out this week shows the Japanese economy returning to recession by contracting for the second straight quarter (and three out of the last four quarters). The conclusion reached by the Keynesian apologists is that the benefits of inflation caused by the monetary stimulus have been counteracted, temporarily, by the negative effects of inflation caused by taxes. This tortured logic should be a clear indication that the policies were flawed from the start.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

The U.S. Economy’s Ebb and Flow / Economics / US Economy

By: Harry_Dent

Paul Krugman recently wrote an op-ed in The New York Times about the exit of Bill Gross from Pimco and why that happened because he didn’t understand that we’re in a deflationary or depression-like economy. He kept betting on interest rates rising on a lag from money printing or quantitative easing (QE) but that never happened and his massive bond fund suffered.

I don’t agree with Paul Krugman about too many things, but I do agree with one of his major points in that article.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Japan Is Dying And We Still Don’t Get It?! / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

What is it with us? Don’t we WANT to understand? Japan announced on Monday that its economy is in hopeless trouble and back in recession (as if it was ever out). And what do we see? ‘Experts’ and reporters clamoring for more stimulus. But if Japan has shown us anything over the past years, and you’re free to pick any number between 2 and 20 years, it’s that the QE-based kind of stimulus doesn’t work. Not for the real economy, that is.

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Economics

Monday, November 17, 2014

Cameron Says Second Global Economic Crash is Loomin, Japan in Recession / Economics / Recession 2015

By: GoldCore

David Cameron warned last night that the global economy risked another crash and said in an article that 'red warning lights' were 'flashing on the dashboard of the global economy' and the eurozone was 'teetering on the brink' of another recession.

The warning came at the same time that the world’s largest economy, Japan, fell into another recession. Japan shrank by an annualised 1.6% in the third quarter. This followed a huge 7.3% contraction in the previous quarter caused by a rise in the national sales tax and ran counter to economists forecasts for a 2.1 percent rebound.

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Economics

Monday, November 17, 2014

Japan's Last Stand - Inflate or Die / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Michael_Pento

There is a popular American military term called a "last stand", which is meant to describe a situation where a combat force attempts to hold a defensive position in the face of overwhelming odds. The defensive force usually sustains very heavy casualties or is completely destroyed, as happened at Custer's Last Stand. General Custer, misreading his enemy's size and ability, fought his final and fatal battle of Little Bighorn; leading to complete annihilation of both himself and his troops.

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Economics

Friday, November 14, 2014

Hyperinflation in the U.S.? / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

“WAR is a racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives.”
-General Smedley Butler, USMC

“Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws.”
-Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744-1812), founder of the House of Rothschild

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Economics

Friday, November 14, 2014

Debt, Propaganda And Now Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Looks I have to return to the deflation topic. I’m a bit hesitant about it, because the discussion always gets distorted by varying definitions and a whole bunch of semi-religious issues. The Automatic Earth has for many years said that an immense bout of deflation is inevitable because of global debt levels, and it’s all only gotten a lot worse since we first said that. Our governments and central banks have ‘fought’ deflation with more debt, and that was always the stupidest idea in human history. Or at least, most of us were stupid for believing it would work, or was even intended to.

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Economics

Friday, November 14, 2014

Inflation Chronicles - Art Prices So High, “The Crowd Forgot To Clap” / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Rubino

Depending on which expert is talking, the world is either falling into a deflationary abyss or launching an inflationary moonshot. What’s truly weird and fascinating is that they’re both right. The mountain of debt taken on in the past few decades exerts a profoundly deflationary pull on the economies of Europe and Japan, and to a lesser extent the US. At the same time the torrent of currency flowing out of the world’s central banks is swelling the accounts of the super-rich who are converting it into real assets as fast as they can, causing near-hyperinflation in some favored markets. Hence the spectacle of Paul Krugman (and most Fed governors) complaining about low inflation and warning of a deflationary death spiral, while things like this are happening:

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Economics

Thursday, November 13, 2014

The Most Destructive Generation Ever / Economics / Demographics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I’m afraid I got to delve into a particularly unpopular topics once again today. Blame it on Bloomberg. They ran a piece on the Silent Generation (people born between 1928-’45), which finds it self in a ‘sweet spot’ but refuses to spend enough. A funny problem: the by far richest group in the US doesn’t spend, while those who would like to spend, for instance to build a home and a family, are too poor to do it.

I know I’m not going to make myself popular with what I have to say about this, but then I’m not running for US President, or Miss Universe for that matter. Besides, people should be careful about taking things personal that are not.

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Economics

Thursday, November 13, 2014

What Are The Odds in 2015: Inflation or Deflation? / Economics / Deflation

By: Submissions

TCE writes: Like other Central Banks, the U. S. Federal Reserve has “printed” copious quantities of money. Despite better GDP numbers and positive media commentary, much of the American economy continues to be lethargic. The Eurozone appears increasingly vulnerable to recession. Financial and geopolitical risks could derail economic growth. What are the long term trends that will shape the outcome?

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Economics

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

The Economics of Tipping / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Ken Zahringer writes: My dinner companion sounded indignant. “It’s a shame we have to tip the waitress,” she said. “The restaurant owner ought to pay the staff enough to live on.”

I imagine that is a common attitude among those steeped in our current cultural climate of envy and dislike of economic success — the anti-capitalist mentality, as Mises put it. It’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking that we tip waiters out of sympathy, due to their misfortune of having to work in an industry full of greedy restaurant owners who won’t pay a “living wage.” In fact, tipping is an elegant market solution to a particular set of circumstances, often present in service jobs, that makes determining an appropriate wage extremely problematic. The practice of tipping used to be more common, applying to many more service positions than at present, when it is largely restricted to waitstaff and skycaps. Part of the reason for its partial demise is just the wandering course of economic change, but many jobs that used to be paid primarily by tips came to be covered by minimum wage legislation and simply disappeared.

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