Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, July 21, 2015
Worker Productivity and Modern-Day Horse Manure / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
“They just use your mind and they never give you credit. It’s enough to drive you crazy if you let it.”
Almost everyone wants to be more productive. I include myself in that group – there are lots of ways I could be more productive. When I have conversations with people I think are very productive, they almost always tell me they wish they were more productive. What more could anyone expect from them?
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Monday, July 20, 2015
The Fed’s Confusion Over the "Natural Rate" of Unemployment and Inflation / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Frank_Shostak
In May, the US unemployment rate stood at 5.5 percent against the rate of 5.3 percent for the “natural unemployment,” also known as the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU).
According to the popular view, once the actual unemployment rate falls to below the NAIRU, or the natural unemployment rate, the rate of inflation tends to accelerate and economic activity becomes overheated. (This acceleration in the rate of inflation takes place through increases in the demand for goods and services. It also lifts the demand for workers and puts pressure on wages, reinforcing the growth in inflation).
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Sunday, July 19, 2015
Canada in Recession Admits Canadian Central Bank, Operation Twist? / Economics / Recession 2015
By: Mike_Shedlock
... The Solution: More Bubbles; Operation Twist Canadian Style?
The Bank of Canada admitted on Wednesday that Canada was in Recession. Well sort of.
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is afraid to speak the "R-Word". Instead, Poloz phrased it this way: "Real GDP is now projected to have contracted modestly in the first half of the year."
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Sunday, July 19, 2015
Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: James_Quinn
The government released their monthly CPI report this week. Even though it came in at an annualized rate of 3.6%, they and their mouthpieces in the corporate mainstream media dutifully downplayed the uptrend. They can’t let the plebs know the truth. That might upend their economic recovery storyline and put a crimp into their artificial free money, zero interest rate, stock market rally. If they were to admit inflation is rising, the Fed would be forced to raise rates. That is unacceptable in our rigged .01% economy. There are banker bonuses, CEO stock options, corporate stock buyback earnings per share goals and captured politician elections at stake.
Thursday, July 16, 2015
Euro-zone ‘Plan B’ Needed As Euro One Recession Away From Implosion – David McWilliams / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: GoldCore
- Euro is one recession away from implosion – David McWilliams
- Mismanagement of euro “both laughable and terrifying”
- “When economic negotiations stop making economic sense, you should begin to question the motives of the EU”
- Germany is out of control
- Successful British exit will be model for other countries
- Euro membership is now conditional
- “Countries that don’t play ball with Germany will see their banking system used against their democratically elected politicians”
- Investors and savers need “PLAN B”
Thursday, July 16, 2015
The UK’s Growing Economies / Economics / UK Economy
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Since the Economic Downturn in 2008, economic adjectives have been ubiquitous and we hear and read daily of an ailing or buoyant; expansionary or inflationary; bullish or recessionary economy. Optimistic or pessimistic perspectives on economic matters are often a result of one’s portfolio or even their political leanings and, consequently, many people are influenced by Medias need to define an economy as ‘In or Out of Recession’. Often the accepted formula of two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth or contraction in a sector fuels their abysmal report. Others such as Chief Economic optimist Joe Grice of The Office of National Statistics (ONS) see no statistical basis to characterise the economy as recessionary. He states, “Overall, in recent years, the economy appears to have been on a bumpy plateau, with an upward trend but at well below historic growth rates.”
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Monday, July 13, 2015
The Potemkin Bank of China / Economics / Central Banks
By: Michael_Pento
In the midst of an intense global economic slowdown that began in 2008, China's economy amazingly appeared to be unaffected. Defying the world-wide real estate collapse, China's GDP grew by an impressive 8.7% in 2009. Fueled initially by a $586 billion stimulus package, China would end up plowing and additional $20 trillion dollars into a fixed asset bubble that was designed to produce the government's desired GDP print.
Friday, July 10, 2015
Labour Productivity Misconceptions / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Alasdair_Macleod
In the media warm-up for Wednesday's UK budget, we were told of Britain's poor productivity and Chancellor Osborne subsequently confirmed that his priority is to address it. Comparative figures for Europe quoted by the BBC were sourced from the OECD and are replicated in the chart below.
Thursday, July 09, 2015
U.S. Economy Slouches toward Recession as Eurozone Crisis Widens / Economics / US Economy
By: MoneyMetals
Stefan Gleason writes: Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen may have missed her window of opportunity to raise interest rates. The economic data no longer paint a picture of even a tepid recovery. Since the start of the year, key indicators for the economy began pointing toward recession.
Add to that the recent Eurozone chaos surrounding the Greek default and a 30% crash in the Chinese stock market, and economic pressures are growing by the day.
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Thursday, July 09, 2015
Greece Enters Its Crack-Up Boom - The War on Cash / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: John_Rubino
The Austrian School of economics has a concept called a “crack-up boom” in which a critical mass of people conclude that their government is actively trying to devalue its currency.
Consumers respond by front-running the government, spending their paychecks immediately in order to convert their soon-to-be-less-valuable money into real things. Merchants, not happy about the sudden influx of suspect currency (and sensing the panic of their customers) hold out for ever-higher prices, causing inflation to spike. But it’s a special kind of inflation, driven not by a sudden increase in the money supply but by collapsing confidence among holders of the currency.
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Tuesday, July 07, 2015
Greece is Just the First of MANY Countries That Will Be Going Belly-Up / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2015
By: Graham_Summers
ALL of the so called, “economic recovery” that began in 2009 has been based on the Central Banks’ abilities to rein in the collapse.
The first round of interventions (2007-early 2009) was performed in the name of saving the system. The second round (2010-2012) was done because it was generally believed that the first round hadn’t completed the task of getting the world back to recovery.
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Tuesday, July 07, 2015
Greece Crisis and the Top Demographic Trends of Our Time / Economics / Demographics
By: Harry_Dent
Greece is not the place to be right now.Its citizens are capped out at $67 a day on the ATM. Its pensioners are pinching pennies. Its doctors are leaving in droves. Its long-term demographics are deplorable, making the chances for recovery more and more abysmal. It’s a nightmare!
I’ve already explained that large-scale debt deleveraging will be one of the triggers that sends the global economy back into crisis. Now that Greece has defaulted on its $1.7 billion IMF payment, they’re looking more and more like the beginning of the end.
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Tuesday, July 07, 2015
The Uber Economy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Rodney_Johnson
On a recent trip to the D.C. area, I needed a ride to the Baltimore airport. I dreaded calling a cab, since I knew the ride would be over $100 and the cab itself might make the 30-minute ride less than pleasant. So I took the occasion to hail an Uber car.The car arrived at 6:10am, and I had a very pleasant ride to the airport in a recent model Volvo S60.
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Sunday, July 05, 2015
Greece Referendum Vote Result Forecast Yes Win, But Depression Will Continue / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Its referendum day for a possible doomsday for Greece where the marxist Syriza government has been hell bent on engineering a Greek exit from the euro-zone ever since its election victory 6 months ago, towards which it has been working step by step attempting to trick the 70% of the Greece electorate who have consistently stated they wish to remain within the euro-zone resulting in a convoluted and confusing referendum question called on short notice that Syriza hopes will convince the majority to vote NO to the euro-zone and europe.
Saturday, July 04, 2015
The Great Greek Economic Depression / Economics / Great Depression 2010's
By: Investment_U
Sean Brodrick writes: Did you know there’s a Great Depression taking place? Not here in the United States, but in Greece.
The cradle of Western democracy has tumbled hard in the past six years, and it looks like it has a lot more pain to bear.
Why is Greece in a Great Depression? Take a look at this chart comparing gross domestic product in Greece now with the “gold standard” of Great Depressions, the U.S. back in the 1930s.
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Friday, July 03, 2015
Greece's So-Called Austerity / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Steve_H_Hanke
It's hard to find anything written or spoken about Greece that doesn't contain a great deal of hand wringing about the alleged austerity -- brutal fiscal austerity -- that the Greek government has been forced to endure at the hands of the so-called troika. This is Alice in Wonderland economics. It supports my 95 percent rule: Ninety-five percent of what you read about economics and finance is either wrong or irrelevant.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2015
Greece's Crisis and Its Bloated Government / Economics / Government Spending
By: Steve_H_Hanke
It's hard to find anything written or spoken about Greece that doesn't contain a great deal of hand wringing about the alleged austerity - brutal fiscal austerity -- that the Greek government has been forced to endure at the hands of the so-called troika. This is Alice in Wonderland economics. It supports my 95 percent rule: 95 percent of what you read about economics and finance is either wrong or irrelevant.
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Tuesday, June 30, 2015
China Takes A Big Step To Spur Economic Growth / Economics / China Economy
By: AnyOption
After a strong end of last year for Chinese markets, there was a bit of a reversal in the first quarter of 2015; and it has caught the attention of Chinese monetary policy makers. In an effort to spur economic growth, the People's Bank of China has made big changes to monetary policy in the country. Today, we'll talk about what those changes are and how they're likely to help, as well as what we can expect to see from China's markets moving forward. So, let's get right to it.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 25, 2015
Dumping the Euro Isn’t a Cure-All: Easy Money Lets Governments Avoid Free-Market Reforms / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
The Greek drama continues to unfold with the risk of “grexit” becoming increasingly likely. Yet, a large majority of the Greek people want to keep the euro. This, however, would require the Greek government to live within its means — something it has not been able to do for decades. With anti-austerity parties gaining strength continent wide, Greece may be the first, but not the last, to leave.
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
The Fed’s Failed Efforts to Right the U.S. Economic Ship / Economics / US Economy
By: Harry_Dent
Rodney Johnson writes:
According to a recent Federal Reserve report, American wealth clocked in at $99 trillion in the first quarter of 2015, setting a new record. More than two-thirds of this is in paper assets, with the remaining third in housing and other assets.While the value of all consumer real estate has yet to eclipse its previous peak set in 2006, the equity and debt markets have ramped up over the past six years… even as economic activity remains sluggish and wages stagnant. This probably has a little bit to do with the Fed printing over $4 trillion and force-feeding all the money to the banking system. Read full article... Read full article...