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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Sunday, November 03, 2024

Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway / Economics / Recession 2024

By: EWI

Recession chances? One major Wall Street firm says only 15% "after better-than-expected jobs report." (Reuters, Oct. 7) Yet, in Elliott Wave International's view, economic numbers are laggards and do not predict anything. Better to pay attention to this indicator from EWI's October Elliott Wave Financial Forecast:

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Economics

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

US Population Growth Rate / Economics / Demographics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It should not come as any surprise that the US population continues to grow, rebounding strongly from the pandemic pause in immigration which acts as a cushion against the falling fertility rate that currently stands at 1.66 which is below the replacement rate of 2.1 so obviously the gap is being filled by immigrants as is the case with most western nations with a growing population such as Britain which has a fertility rate of 1.55 vs the EU at 1.46 and those that bark the loudest about immigrants Poland and Hungary are dying the fastest not only because they have a low fertility rate but also that many millions of their young have migrated abroad with some 2 million Poles having settled in the UK alone, in total Poland has lost 1/5th of it's population to emigration. Poland as much of Eastern Europe is dying unlike Western Europe which is at the heart of the basket case that is called the European Union.

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Economics

Sunday, September 08, 2024

RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts / Economics / Inverted Yield Curve

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A good reliable signaler for a recession and the next bear market will be when the yield curve uninverts. Whilst nothing is a done deal, however this signal is 90% reliable so on such a signal it would be wise to at least reduce exposure to over valued stocks heading towards uninversion. .Whilst also being prepared to ride out whatever a potential bear market delivers in better valued stocks where the risk is one of the recession changing the metrics as companies MISS earnings and thus become more expensive as their stock prices fall. That is the risk of investing in the stock market, a balancing act of mainlining exposure whilst riding temporary dips as one is acting without the benefit of hindsight.

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Economics

Thursday, August 15, 2024

What's So Great About 2 Percent Inflation? / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Don’t be fooled when you hear “inflation is coming down.” That's not the plan and it never was.

The fact is price inflation was up in July.

And it will be up in August.

And it will be up in September.

That’s because rising price inflation is the Federal Reserve’s stated policy.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Are we Slipping into a Recession? / Economics / Recession 2024

By: Stephen_McBride

That’s the question on every investor’s mind right now. Because recessions are bad for stocks.

In today’s Jolt, I’ll walk you through what the three most accurate recession indicators are telling us… and suggest what to do about it.

Let’s get after it.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Inflation – How It Started And Where We Are Now / Economics / Inflation

By: Kelsey_Williams

INFLATION HOW IT ALL STARTED

Early ruling monarchs would clip small pieces of the coins they accumulated through taxes and other levies against their subjects. The clipped pieces were melted down and fabricated into new coins. All of the coins were then returned to circulation. The clipped coins circulated side by side with other coins and all were assumed to be equal in value.

As the process evolved, more and more clipped coins showed up in circulation. People became suspicious and were reluctant to accept the clipped coins at full face value. Their concern prompted the ruling powers to reduce the precious metal content of the coins. This lowered the cost to fabricate and issue new coins. Soon, all of the coins in circulation had less precious metal content. Hence, there was no need to clip the coins anymore.

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Economics

Sunday, June 16, 2024

Inflation Is Dead! Or Is It? / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Strike up the band and wave the victory banners! Inflation is dead!

Or is it?

The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was cause for optimism. But price inflation is like that stubborn weed in the driveway. Just when you think you’ve killed it for good, it pokes back through a crack.

Keep in mind that this time last year, we were also talking about a victory over inflation.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

US Economy Slowing Slipping into Recession, But Not There Yet / Economics / Recession 2024

By: Michael_Pento

The recent spate of economic data continues to point to a weakening economy, but one that is not yet precipitously falling into recession.

The Philly Fed Index was released late last week. The diffusion index for current general activity declined 11 points to 4.5 in May. The index for new orders declined from 12.2 to -7.9, its first negative reading since February, and the shipments index fell from 19.1 to -1.2, its first negative reading since January. We also had US industrial production data released this week. It was flat in April from the previous month, while factory output fell by 0.3%.

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Economics

Friday, May 10, 2024

Biden's Bureau of Labor Statistics is Cooking Jobs Reports / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: MoneyMetals

Last Friday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report showed that U.S. employers added some 175,000 jobs in April.

But while April’s numbers captured most of the headlines, the same jobs report also contained downward revisions for earlier this year, with the BLS admitting that “employment in February and March combined is 22,000 lower than previously reported.”

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Economics

Monday, April 08, 2024

Media Elite Belittle Inflation Struggles of Ordinary Americans / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

A top writer for the Wall Street Journal thinks Americans who complain about the economy just aren't aware of how good things are.

Chief Economics Commentator Greg Ip wrote a gaslighting article last week with the headline, "What's Wrong With the Economy? It's You, Not the Data."

The article begins with the claim that Americans just don't have the facts on inflation.

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Economics

Monday, March 18, 2024

US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Economics / US Presidential Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis posted in January 2023 that despite MSM hysteria strongly suggested that there would be NO recession during 2023, as there had never been a recession during a pre-election year. Whilst the highest risk is that the recession materialises during 2025, though both 2024 and 2026 are equally high recession risk years.

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Economics

Monday, March 18, 2024

US Recession Already Happened in 2022! / Economics / Recession 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Yes it is a a big fat con because the US has already posted 2 quarters of negative GDP in 2022 Q1 and Q2 , what can you do? This is the world we inhabit of fake economic data, the Fed does not like CPI, lets run with the much lower PCE, 5% instead of 8% inflation! What a con!

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Economics

Thursday, February 29, 2024

US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic / Economics / Unemployment

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst everyone focuses on the unemployment rate as a gauge for economic activity, however the statistic has been engineered to the extent to become meaningless as shadow stats illustrates.

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Economics

Saturday, February 17, 2024

Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation / Economics / Global Economy

By: MoneyMetals

Defining inflation as "rising prices" creates all kinds of confusion.

As I explained in-depth, historically, inflation meant an increase in the amount of money and credit in the economy, or more succinctly, an expansion in the money supply. Rising consumer prices - price inflation - is one symptom of this monetary inflation. 

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Economics

Friday, January 19, 2024

Toward China's Soft Economic Rebound / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

Last year, international observers charged China for global inflation, deflation and economic collapse. In reality, Chinese economy is inching toward a soft rebound, despite the dire global landscape.
As global business and political leaders swarmed to Davos for the World Economic Forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang took the podium. Chinese economy has rebounded and moved upward, Li noted, and was estimated to have grown around 5.2% in 2023. That’s slightly better than the official target of around 5%.
No matter how the world’s situation changes, Li added. China will adhere to its fundamental national policy of opening up, and its door will only get wider and wider.” he said.
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Economics

Saturday, November 04, 2023

A Recession is Brewing / Economics / Recession 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A reminder that a recession is brewing as illustrated by the US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions analysis (Stock Market Gasping to Reach 4000 Ahead of Earnings Season, Dow New All Time High 2023?)

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Economics

Friday, November 03, 2023

FED Loads of Money! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

S&P Measuring Move

Rally from 4333 to 4540 is 207 points, 4333 - 207 points = 4126. Not a forecast rather another piece of the puzzle eyeballing sub 4200, and my long standing objective of 4150 as being probable.

So stock market eyes sub 4200, and eying achieving 4150 with possibility of overshoot to just under 4100 over the next 4 to 6 weeks. Therefore the market is primed to snap back inline with my trend forecast by means of taking a significant tumble over the coming weeks where we can all look for catalysts for but the forecast remains blind to all that has transpired since it was posted 10 months ago!

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Economics

Friday, September 22, 2023

The Full Employment Lie / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Today's narrative is that the Fed needs to force unemployment higher to cause demand destruction to bring inflation under control. Only one problem is that just as CPI is a FAKE inflation measure so is the Unemployment rate. They have fiddled the stats to such an extent that today's 3.6% unemployment is more like 10% for your grandfathers unemployment as shadow stats once more illustrates, Just look at the spread between REAL unemployment and fake UNEMPLIE 25% vs 3.6%! Seriously they are taking the piss, treating the masses like idiots! Unfortunately the Econofools perpetuate this LIE across MSM, so there you have it US unemployment rate is a lot closer to 25% than 3.65%

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Economics

Thursday, September 07, 2023

Why US Annual Budget Deficits Are Getting Worse / Economics / US Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The pandemic a once in a 100 year event sparked rampant deficit spending to bailout the economy, that was 2020, whilst 2021 was nearly as bad! And 2022 did show an improvement by reverting back to pre-pandemic deficit era extremes. However the 2023 deficit is once more ramping up and running at twice the pre-pandemic extreme rate.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 06, 2023

US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As my analysis of Jan 2023 pointed out (Stock Market Gasping to Reach 4000 Ahead of Earnings Season, Dow New All Time High 2023?)

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