Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Tucson and the Great Depression- This Is Not Your Normal Economic Downturn / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
…Goldman Sachs recently revised its forecast for the U.S. economy, predicting a recession in 2008 (Reuters)…Of course, not all recessions are created equal. Goldman doesn't predict a deep recession, but rather a mild turndown, with modest recovery in 2009. CFR.org, 1/18/08 , Lee Hudson Teslik, Assistant Editor and economics writer at CFR.org The Council on Foreign Relations. Mr. Teslik is 26 years old.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
US Economic Quarterly Review and Outlook for 2008 / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
This week's Outside the Box is from my friends at Hoisington Management. While somewhat technical, they make the case that a slowdown in consumer spending is inevitable. This is worth taking some time and thinking about. Quoting: "This means that consumer spending increases should be approximately zero for the next three years. Further exacerbating the problem is the personal saving rate which declined from 5.2% in the decade of the 1990s to average 1.3% in the last seven years, and now stands at 0.3%. Should declining wealth, rising unemployment and poor economic conditions cause consumers to begin to save and lift the rate back to the 1.3% average of the past seven years, real consumer spending would experience a multi-year contraction." Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
The US Needs a Good Dose of Supply-side Economics Instead of Interest Rate Cuts / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Since last September the Fed has slashed the fed funds rate by 300 basis points to 2.25 per cent. Will there be anymore cuts? Not if Martin Feldstein, former chairman of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisors, has anything to do with it. Feldstein, now a Harvard economics professor, argues that further cuts would promote commodity prices and inflation without solving the economy's woes. What he didn't say is that what the US economy needs is more production — not more monetary manipulation — if genuine demand is to expand.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 21, 2008
George Soros, Economic Illiteracy and Monetary Policy / Economics / Money Supply
By: Gerard_Jackson
Soros's main thrust against economics is that it is based on the theory that markets bring supply and demand into balance thus securing the best allocation of resources. He argues that this theory cannot apply to the real world because it is based on the model of perfect competition, on which he thinks modern economics depends.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 21, 2008
Is China Driving the Australian Economy Out of Business? / Economics / Austrailia
By: Gerard_Jackson
I have written several articles drawing attention to the possibility that monetary policy may have reduced the ratio of manufacturing to GDP, only to have my concerns dismissed by the likes of Des Moore, a former Treasury official, as not being part of "the traditional explanation". But I was not saying anything new or radical. The possibility of an overvalued currency reducing the size of a country's manufacturing base is sometimes called the "Dutch disease" or the "dual economy".Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Will Fed Actions and American Culture Prevent a Soft Depression? / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
- The Muddle Through Question
- Clowns to the Left of Me, Jokers to the Right of Me, Here I am Stuck in the Muddle Through Middle With You!
- A Soft Depression? Not.
- South Africa and Swiss Mountains
A few weeks ago I asked for readers to send me questions and said I would try and answer them while I was in Switzerland. Some of them were quite good and have given me ideas for whole newsletters but will require a lot of research. But a lot of them fell into two basic camps. This week we look at a number of questions from readers about my thoughts on the Muddle Through Economy.
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Friday, April 18, 2008
The Collapse of the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Recent high profile bankruptcies of mainstay American retailers, such as The Sharper Image and Linens ‘n Things, as well as the proposed mergers between Blockbuster/Circuit City and Delta/Northwest, and the admissions from the nation's leading student lenders that their business models are no longer viable, mark the beginning of a long overdue overhaul of the American economy. In short, the economy will be getting smaller and more expensive. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 18, 2008
Real Interest Rates Hit Minus 12.55% As Inflation Explodes! / Economics / Articles
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: If you've been following the news, you know the Federal Reserve has been cutting interest rates. The benchmark federal funds rate was 5.25% last summer. It's all the way down to 2.25% now, and chances are the Fed will cut that rate again when it concludes its next policy meeting on April 30. The only question is whether we'll get a quarter-point or half-point cut at this time. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Euro-Zone Combats Stagflation with Strong Euro, as Asia Riots on Food Inflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Christopher_Laird
Inflation and stagflation, Euro, gold, and Asia Stagflation is behind the strong Euro, but also lots of general commodity inflation. Gold loves the stagflation mixture. If there is one gold bullish factor above all the others, it is if stagflation stays with us. Asia also has its very serious problems with inflation, namely food prices.
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Wednesday, April 16, 2008
US Actual Inflation Trend Heading for Stagflation or Deflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Jas_Jain
Inflationists have been crying wolf for the past three plus years despite the fact that the annualized headline CPI, including food and energy, and not seasonally adjusted, for 12M, 6M, and 3M has fluctuated around the 20-year trend of 3%+- (yes, the annualized inflation in the US for the past 20 years is 3.08%). As a matter of fact, despite huge run up in crude oil and agriculturals during the past year the CPI rates in the graph are below their highs during 2005-07. Labor costs are by far the most dominant contributor to the CPI. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
It is 1937 for the US Federal Reserve / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Mick_Phoenix
This Letter is a follow on from my article The Future Actions of The Federal Reserve and US Govt are known in which, using the work of GB Eggertsson, we showed that the Fed/US Govt is following a plan to stimulate the economy and avoid a deflationary episode. Essentially the plan is to avoid the mistakes of the Depression and those of Japan in the 90's by using increased Government debt, monetized by the Fed, targeted directly at consumers. By employing a credible threat of an inflationary stance the Fed/US Govt hope to raise inflation expectations and therefore raise the price of assets.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
40 Years of Real Interest Rates and, 80 Years of Dow/Gold Ratio / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The infamous Dow/Gold Ratio just touched its long-run historic average. So which way next amid the Fed's inflationary melt-up...?"
IF WALL STREET STOCKS can surge 160 points on falling earnings, an 11% drop in housing starts, and a 16-year record for consumer-price inflation, then so can everything else that doesn't carry a picture of George Washington.
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Tuesday, April 15, 2008
The "Real" US Economy / Economics / Corporate Earnings
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Everything was looking good until Friday. Instead of bringing good things to light, they turned out the lights on the nascent market rally and put everyone back on their heels. The GE report came after the government reported the trade deficit worsened the day before – without much fanfare. However, in our view the worsening trade deficit takes out one of the few remaining legs supporting the large multi-national companies, specifically that while domestic sales are down, the foreign sales should carry the day.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 14, 2008
The Problems Spread as US Recession Takes Hold / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Browne
Last week, General Electric one of the finest companies in the world and an American icon, announced a major fall in earnings. Amazingly, the bad news surprised Wall Street, and GE shares fell 13 percent in a single day. Some surprise!
GE is one of the best-diversified and well managed companies on earth, and is seen as a barometer of both the US and the world economies. Its latest earnings report was impacted by the expected fall in financial services and a continued strength in overseas earnings. However, it also showed a largely unexpected fall in the sales of US medical devises as public and not-for-profit hospitals, suffering massive increases in their borrowing costs, cut back on spending.
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Sunday, April 13, 2008
Save the US Economy and Rekindle Democracy by Giving the Workers a Raise / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Whitney
“ The bright new financial system, with all its talented participants, with all its rich rewards, has failed the test of the marketplace. " Former Fed Chief, Paul Volcker
A specter is haunting Wall Street---the specter of insolvency. One major player, Bear Stearns, has already gone under, and from the looks of it, another may be on the way. It's getting ugly out there. The so-called TED spread---which measures the willingness of banks to lend to each other---has begun to widen ominously suggesting that the money markets believe another body will be floating to the surface any day now.
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Sunday, April 13, 2008
Why South Korea is set to Become the Biggest Economic Story of 2008 / Economics / South Korea
By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald
Where should you put your money in 2008? And more importantly, how can you make money in 2008? These are not easy questions to answer. With the credit crunch sending shock waves around the globe, and the Fed's dismal attempts to solve the problem, these questions loom large ...
Fortunately, there are some good answers just waiting in the wings. One market in particular not only looks bulletproof, it is posting some of the fastest - and most consistent - productivity gains of all the Asian countries. In fact, this particular economy is one of the most competitive on the planet. And get this: It's dirt cheap, trading at a P/E of only 12.
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Saturday, April 12, 2008
The Great TV Price Inflation Scam / Economics / Inflation
By: Tim_Iacono
Anyone wanting to better understand one of the primary reasons why we are in such an economic mess these days need look no further than the history of television prices over the last half-decade or more.
Actually there are two versions of TV prices - the real world "in"-flation experience and the government's "de"-flation version.
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Saturday, April 12, 2008
G7 Income Collapse as Credit Crisis Moves from Wall Street to Main Street / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Ty_Andros
Wowee, things sure are unfolding quickly. Volatility is front and center as confusion reigns supreme in the broad investing public, driving them all over the place except to where they should be focusing. “Volatility is opportunity” and it is abundant, providing prepared investors with gargantuan opportunities. If you are not benefiting from it, “do more homework” or find a new advisor who does. The bear market in PAPER assets, or those underpinned by them, are in full retreat creating GIANT “fingers of instability” (see Tedbits archives at www.TraderView.com ) which provide opportunities for astute investors. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 11, 2008
Brother Can You Spare $10 Grand? / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Peter_Schiff
The grainy footage of Great Depression soup lines and Hoovervilles now in heavy rotation on the major news outlets has been largely counterbalanced by a parade of economists who reassure us that such a protracted downturn is currently inconceivable. Their confidence stems primarily from the belief that government safety nets enacted since the New Deal, together with a Fed chairman who is a self-professed depression buff, will prevent a replay of the 1930s. As usual, this analysis is woefully optimistic and sidewalk pencil sales may in fact be a growth industry. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 11, 2008
UK Manipulated Inflation Statistics Erodes Value of Savings / Economics / UK Economy
By: Adrian_Ash
"...A short-back and sides for the value of Sterling – Trim, trim! Snip, snip...!"
"ON THE DOWNSIDE," said the Bank of England when it trimmed UK interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday, "the disruption in financial markets could lead to a slowdown in the economy sufficiently sharp to pull inflation below target."
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