Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
US GDP Statistics : Can We Trust The BEA Data? / Economics / US Economy
By: Ronald_R_Cooke
Introduction In another life (circa 1962), I was an auditor for AT&T. Nothing spectacular. Mostly cash and property reviews. Then some business process analysis. It was my good fortune to have two older gentlemen as partners. They graciously decided to teach this green college kid how to be a good auditor. It was a great learning experience. One of the tricks they taught me was called the “reasonable test”. If the data under audit was within the parameters of like data from other audits, then it was reasonable to assume there were no problems of procedure or management. If, on the other hand, the data did not seem to make sense versus circumstantial criteria, then it would be reasonable to assume further audit investigation was warranted. This technique of measuring the quality of information has become a cornerstone of my work ever since. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
The Increasing Cycle of Decreasing Demand Hits Financial Markets and Real Estate / Economics / Deflation
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
The Economy & The Fat Kid
Credit-based economies constantly need to expand in order to service constantly increasing levels of debt. Central banks adjust the flow of credit to maintain the balance between economic expansion and economic contraction.
Then one day, a fat kid shows up at the playground. While everyone knows it's a private playground and admittance is strictly controlled, no one knows where the fat kid came from or how he got in. Nonetheless, the fat kid's there.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
The Financial Foundations of the American Century - Financial Tsunami Part II / Economics / US Economy
By: F_William_Engdahl
The ongoing and deepening global financial crisis, nominally triggered in July 2007 by an event involving a small German bank holding securitized assets backed by USA sub-prime real estate mortgages, can best be understood as an essential part of an historical process dating back to the end of the Second World War—the rise and decline of the American Century.
The American Century, proudly proclaimed by Time-Life founder and establishment insider, Henry Luce in a famous 1941 Life magazine editorial, was built on the preeminent role of New York banks and Wall Street investment banks which had by then clearly replaced the City of London as the center of gravity of global finance. Luce's American Century was to be built in a far more calculated manner than the British Empire it replaced.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Sovereign Wealth Funds Threat to United States Economy / Economics / Sovereign Wealth Funds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) movement has begun to expand in a powerful manner, and will not go away. In fact, it will expand on a grand basis since foreign nations have had their fill of US Treasury Bonds, and see grand risks ahead for any US$-based investments.
The SWF fund movement is intended to pursue the two prime commodities, GOLD & CRUDE OIL, the premier financial anchor and commercial fuel in the increasingly upside down world. Several stories have emerged, on Chinese and Arab managed funds purchasing giant equity stakes on cash infusions for large crippled US banks. Regard the movement as creditor receivership in stages, as the mammoth credit masters for the US Economy over the last 30 years are slowly taking over in stages major US corporations, the latest stage focused upon bank bailouts. In the past few months, a total of $60 billion has been poured into the Western big banks, more with each passing week seemingly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Fed's Small Fixes for a Growing Economic Problem / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_Petillo
The economy has taken a serious turn since the first of the year. January has seen the Wilshire 5000 drop 4.9%, unemployment tick up, and write-downs and write-offs increase in size. Fortunately, the news is finally reaching the campaign trail. Problem is no one can quite agree on whether these problems are short-term or long, good or bad, recessionary or just simply the result of a poor calculation done months, perhaps years ago. So what happened when we turned the calendar?Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
US Economy and Bernanke's Superficial Understanding of Economics / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
At the beginning of the month the Fed sent out a press release in which it brought attention to "a string of large current account deficits" by the US. We also had Mr Bernanke grandly declaring: We stand ready to take substantive additional actions as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
The Bush $100 Billion Hyper-Inflationary Stimulus Package / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Whitney
In the next couple of weeks, George Bush will prove that the last 30 years of supply side, free market economics was nothing more than a overripe pile of horse manure. In fact, right now, the B-52s are being loaded with pallets-full of freshly-minted hundred dollar bills which will be air-dropped “from sea to shining sea” as soon as King George gives the nod.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 14, 2008
US Social Security Trust Fund Government Designed and Controlled Ponzi Scheme / Economics / US Economy
By: Steve_Selengut
As an investor, I've always wondered why Social Security is such a problem. What's so difficult about managing this particular Trust Fund, and why is it so different from other investment accounts that pay out a constant stream of income? The private sector does it routinely with defined benefit pension plans and fixed annuities, so what's the big deal? Is Social Security failing because it hasn't been invested soundly, or is there some other reason?Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 12, 2008
US Trade Deficit Reduction Reliant on Increased Savings and Reduced Consumption / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
- What Are They Thinking?
- The Reality of Trade Deficits
- Fair Tax Nonsense
- How to Create an Immigration Depression
- Stimulate the Economy by Cutting Spending?
- Tax Hikes to Help Us Grow?
In the past week, I have been in the car coming home late from work, with the presidential debates are on the radio. It is very discouraging to listen to what passes for economic literacy among the candidates. In reality, many candidates are espousing policies that are quite dangerous at worst, or simply misleading at best. Far too many in both parties tell a frustrated America what it wants to hear, rather than the economic reality. The Republicans have some of the worst offenders.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Gold Price Rise a Consquence of Inflationary Global Expansion Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply
By: Peter_Schiff
Holding onto its "all is well" bias like a terrified cowboy on an enraged bull, Wall Street has managed to convince itself, and much of the world, that inflation is a non-issue. When confronted with facts to the contrary, their rationalizations come fast and thick. Nowhere is this spin more pronounced than in their dismissal of the surging price of gold as a relevant indicator.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 11, 2008
Australian Prime Minister Should Ignore Demands for Price Controls / Economics / Austrailia
By: Gerard_Jackson
Now that we have wall-to-wall Labor Governments the question of price controls has once again been raised, particularly with respect to petrol. Although I do not believe for a moment that Prime Minister Rudd intends to imposed price controls I still think it is prudent to remind people that those who cry out for price controls either believe that the laws of supply and demand do not exist or that they are determined by institutional factors, meaning that they vary according to time and place. From this they conclude that prices can be fixed without any harm to the economy so long as account is take of the costs of production.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 11, 2008
Deflation Economic Time-bomb As US Moves Towards Recession / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Whitney
"Is there anyone who still does not understand that talk of 'inflation' by officialdom is just a red herring intended to distract us from the far more dangerous dragon of deflation?" Mike Shedlock; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
We are to about see how much George Bush really believes the “supply side” mumbo-jumbo he's been spouting for the last 7 years. Last week's Labor Department report confirmed that unemployment is on the rise (5%) and that corrective action will be required to avoid a long and painful recession. There's a good chance that the Chameleon in Chief will jettison his “trickle down” doctrine for more conventional Keynesian remedies like slashing interest rates, government programs, and tax relief to middle and low income people.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Central Banks Facing Stagflation - Bullish Gold, Currencies and Crude Oil / Economics / Inflation
By: Christopher_Laird
One of the main reasons gold is rising so much now is because central banks are facing stagflationary forces. Stagflation is a combination of economic stagnation with inflation. Central banks find it hard to lower interest rates because of inflation, and economic stagnation causes them to want to lower interest rates. This is very gold and oil bullish.
Many of the causes of gold's rise in the late 70's and 1980 are with us today. But let's first define stagflation:
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 10, 2008
The Coming Economic Depression & Christmas On Threadneedle Street / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
The address of the Bank of England is Threadneedle Street , EC2 London. Martha and I could not have been closer. On Christmas day, we were at the Threadneedles Hotel at 5 Threadneedle Street . But proximity to the Bank of England is measured not by distance but by influence. Those closest to the Bank of England are the moneylenders.
England 's reign as a world power actually began on Threadneedle Street . Then, no bank had its own building and bankers were but goldsmiths who lent money and rented space to do business. But after the moneylenders cut their bargain (and it was a bargain) with King William of England , things were never to be the same, either for England or the moneylenders—or the world.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 10, 2008
US Recession Will Ultimately be More Severe than Current Forecasts / Economics / Recession
By: Bob_Bronson
Despite permabull hype, as reflected especially by many of Larry Kudlow's guests on CNBC, the second revision in 3Q GDP neither obviated nor postponed the persistently developing -- and very predictable -- recession.
Our stock market and economic cycle template, or SMECT model clearly illustrates the "perfect storm" of several business and economic cycles contracting simultaneously and suggesting, well in advance, that the oncoming recession will be more severe than average
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
The Economy & The Fat Kid / Economics / US Economy
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Credit-based economies constantly need to expand in order to service constantly increasing levels of debt. Central banks adjust the flow of credit to maintain the balance between economic expansion and economic contraction.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
EuroZone Runaway Credit Inflation Feeds Gold Euro's Bull Market / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Who suffers most from inflation? Who suffers most from rising prices? It's the poor, not the rich. The rich can protect themselves from inflation. Poor people can't..." - Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank (ECB)
THE FINANCIAL TIMES just chose Jean-Claude Trichet – head of the European Central Bank (ECB) – as its "Person of the Year, 2007".
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 07, 2008
The Great Depression - 2008 Forecasters Still Getting it Wrong / Economics / Recession
By: Gerard_Jackson
As the Australian and US booms rolls on some 'forecaster', particularly on the net, are once again drawing historical analogies, warning that we risk a financial collapse that could bring on a depression every bit as bad as the 1930s. These forecasters know as much about the Great Depression as I do about brain surgery. Unfortunately, journalists' ignorance of economic history is massive. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 07, 2008
NO Economic Decoupling Instead Greater Interdependence - 2008: The Year of Reckoning ? / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Brent_Harmes
What lies dead ahead for our economy.- The main stream press is finally waking up to the economic realities that are starting to affect us here and now. The January 7, 2008 Forbes magazine has an article by Ernest Zedillo, (former President of Mexico and current Director of The Yale Center for the study of Globalization) titled, 2008: Year of Reckoning . This article is written by a very studied and intelligent man that has seen first hand the effects of currency and borrowing problems. He sees major problems dead ahead for the global economy and I think he absolutely hits the nail on the head with his analysis. Here are a few quotes from that article along with my comments: Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 07, 2008
Sovereign Wealth Funds - Saviours or Harbingers of Economic Apocalypse? / Economics / Sovereign Wealth Funds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Mega Picture - Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF's) are being hailed as the saviours of the financial world, but in reality are more akin to harbingers of the economic apocalypse for countries such as the United States and United Kingdom.
The SWF's have been stepping in of late with tens of billions in financing and investments into the cash starved US banking and finance sector with financial institutions such as Citicorp selling off large chunks every other week to funds such as that to the Abu Dhabi SWF at 4.9% of the company for $7.5bn on a fixed yield of 11%, the terms are far more favourable than offered to domestic investors. Most recent speculation is that
Rio Tinto maybe inline for a chinese SWF bid of as much as $150 billion.