Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, July 26, 2012
America’s Competitive Spirit Driving Global Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
One of the few things that Barack Obama and Mitt Romney can agree on is that our economy is still struggling to regain its strength. Stubborn unemployment and sluggish growth at home combined with a slowing China and a dysfunctional eurozone have cast a dark shadow on America’s eternal optimism. The media favors negative news and the 24/7 cycle of gloom and doubt can be dispiriting.
We are always looking for the economic points of light around the globe and strive to provide a counterpoint to the pervasive pessimism. As Warren Buffett once said, “It’s never paid to bet against America. We come through things, but it’s not always a smooth ride.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
End is Near For U.S. Economic Rebound / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Clif_Droke
Since the start of the global economic recovery in 2009, the status of the U.S. economy has been a perplexing one. We’ve been bombarded with conflicting reports as to the economy’s strength or weakness at various times over the past 3+ years and at any given time it’s hard to get a good read on how well the domestic economy is performing overall. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Manufacturing Returning To U.S.? / Economics / US Economy
By: Ian_R_Campbell
There are increasing reports of repatriation of manufacturing to the U.S. from China and other low cost producer nations where product transportation costs are high, and where in some cases for 'high end products' (some furniture products for example) quality is seen to be better for 'made in America' products. That said:
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Encouraging Data Buried in Otherwise Gloomy Economic News / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The European debt crisis continues to make headline news with Spanish and Italian government bond yields marking new post summit highs. These events have intensified the downside risks of economic growth in the United States in the quarters ahead. Buried in the sea of glum economic headlines, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to -0.15 in June from -0.48 in May. This index has a reputation of identifying turning points of economic activity in the United States.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 23, 2012
Euro-zone Economic Crisis Black Swan or Hidden Lion? / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
"In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.
"There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 20, 2012
The Spanish Inquisition 2012 / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Asha_Bangalore
Our daughter studied in Spain, and our whole family fell in love with the country when we visited. Ever since, we’ve cheered for La Furia Roja, the wonderful national soccer team. Unfortunately, Spain is dealing with a much less pleasant Furia at the moment.
As the crisis in peripheral Europe spreads from smaller countries to larger ones, the consequences grow commensurately. Spain’s economy is about five times larger than Greece’s, and its commercial and financial linkages are proportionately deeper. While Spain has many of the same structural challenges that other countries have, its plight has been deepened by a property market crash that rivals the one in the U.S.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 20, 2012
The Quantum of Quantitative Easing Inflation is Coming! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The City of London is Imploding as a consequence of ever escalating shockwave's mostly emanating from across the Atlantic as the United States goes into overdrive in attempts to wipe-out competition from London in terms of profiting from global financial market transactions.
First we saw the US dig out and focus on 4 year old LIBOR manipulation stories centred around the cesspit that goes by the name of Barclays Bank that looks set to devastate all of UK's biggest banks, with the UK tax payer ultimately footing the bailout bill. I have covered this story at length that illustrate that everyone knew about LIBOR manipulation but now pretend that they only found out relatively recently - more here - RBS Chaos and Barclays Libor Cesspit Prompts Slow Motion Run on British Banks
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 19, 2012
There is a Hole in the U.S. Economy, Economic Growth Could be Slashed By 71% / Economics / US Economy
By: Dan_Amerman
Everything from the ability to pay for Social Security, to projected federal deficits, to retirement planning and stock market valuations is based upon assumptions that the United States and other nations will emerge from crisis and return to "normal" long-term growth rates.
What happens if we don't return to those growth rates?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
The International Monetary Fund - World Economic Outlook / Economics / Global Economy
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Yesterday the International Monetary Fund issued both its 'World Economic Update' and its 'Global Financial Stability Report'. If you read the short Executive Summaries at the beginning of each, you effectively will have read them. That will take you less than 2 minutes in total, and you ought to take the time to do it - see links following this commentary.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
United States Dependance Day / Economics / Government Spending
By: John_Browne
The Fourth of July week brought unwelcome birthday gifts to the United States in the form of poor domestic jobs data and similarly gloomy information from other major economies. Amidst the heat and festivities, it has become difficult to deny that the economy is deteriorating. Politicians appear helpless, thrashing about for a solution and blaming everything and everyone but themselves. This lack of leadership is apparent to those who have by now lost all confidence of a possible quick rebound, if only the tough decisions had been made early and swiftly.
Monday, July 16, 2012
What Every American Should Know About the National Debt / Economics / US Debt
By: LewRockwell
The U.S. government has stolen $15,876,457,645,132.66 from future generations of Americans, and we continue to add well over a hundred million dollars to that total every single day day. The 15 trillion dollar binge that we have been on over the past 30 years has fueled the greatest standard of living the world has ever seen, but this wonderful prosperity that we have been enjoying has been a lie. It isn't real. We have been living way above our means for so long that we do not have any idea of what "normal" actually is anymore. But every debt addict hits "the wall" eventually, and the same thing is going to happen to us as a nation. At some point the weight of our national debt is going to cause our financial system to implode, and every American will feel the pain of that collapse. Under our current system, there is no mathematical way that this debt can ever be paid back. The road that we are on will either lead to default or to hyperinflation. We have piled up the biggest debt in the history of the world, and if there are future generations of Americans they will look back and curse us for what we did to them. We like to think of ourselves as much wiser than previous generations of Americans, but the truth is that we have been so foolish that it is hard to put it into words.
Monday, July 16, 2012
How the Malaysian Government Manipulate the CPi to Undermine Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Sam_Chee_Kong
The Consumer Price Index measures the movement of goods and services purchased for consumption over a period of time. It is a very good measure for households to evaluate their financial position and purchasing power over time. As far as we know, folks like us knows that the prices of goods and services had risen much for the past few years and yet the government had been telling us the contrary. This is because according to their calculation based on the CPI, the basket of goods and services only goes up by 2-3% per annum. As we know all governments lies about their inflation figures. They will report inflation figures of 2-3% even though the prices of food, fuel, education, medical expenses and etc have been sky rocketing in the past few years.
Sunday, July 15, 2012
China's End Game, the dark side of a great deleveraging / Economics / China Economy
By: Dee_Woo
1. The frustrated and aggressive central bank
If one wants to know how bad the health of China's economy has gone, look no further than PBOC's composure, which seems rather frustrated and aggressive as of late. On 5th July, the central bank cut benchmark interest rates for the 2nd time in less than a month. This happened right after the fact that in December 2011, PBOC cut the reserve requirement ratio(RRR) by a 50 bp to 21%, it followed up with another 50 bp in February and another 50 bp in May to 20% currently.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 14, 2012
China Economic Growth Slows in 2012:Q2 / Economics / China Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real GDP for China slowed to a 7.6% pace from a year ago in the second quarter compared with an 8.1% increase in the first quarter. The latest read on GDP growth in China is the slowest since the first quarter of 2009 not only on a year-to-year basis but also on a quarterly basis (See Chart 3), with the second quarter gain at 6.4%.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
U.S. Wholesale Price Inflation Reverses Part of Recent Decline / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of Finished Goods moved up 0.1% in June, following a string of three monthly declines. The energy price index fell 0.9% in June vs. a 4.3% decline in May. Wholesale gasoline and natural gas prices moved up in June but residential electricity costs declined and provided a large enough offset to bring down the overall finished energy price index. The 0.5% increase in food prices was one of the culprits for a gain in the headline index.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Chile at an Economic Crossroads / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Russell_E_Hoss
Chile's accession to the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development in 2010 was more than just a confirmation that they'd earned the right to join the world's top ranked economies. As the first South American country to be accepted into the OECD, it was also a symbolic affirmation of several decades worth of market-oriented reforms that transformed the country from an illiberal backwater to what is arguably one of Latin America's most stable and thriving nations. As a result, we feel that Chile qualifies as a good choice for international investment (for other investment locales that we have our eye on, see the latest Euro Pacific Global Investor Newsletter).
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 13, 2012
U.S. Labour Market Distortions Lead to a Sharp Drop of Initial Jobless Claims / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 26,000 during the week ended July 7 to 350,000. The sharp decline would be bullish if in fact it was not distorted by the July 4 holiday and fewer summer auto plant shutdowns. Typically in the summer, auto plant shutdowns and return of auto workers causes wide swings in jobless claims numbers.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 13, 2012
Are there suddenly signs of growth in UK retail? / Economics / Sector Analysis
By: Nick_Dockerty
Whisper it but there’s just a touch of optimism surrounding the retail sector in the UK at the moment.
The past financial year has been a difficult one for the majority of retailers but there have been just enough signs in recent company results and economic indicators that things might be picking up.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 12, 2012
EU in Recession, US Entering Recession and China is Lying About Its Growth / Economics / Recession 2012
By: Graham_Summers
The emerging markets, especially China, are showing signs of a major slowdown. Indeed, recent revelations have made it clear that China’s slowdown is in fact much worse than expected:
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
U.S. Labor Market and Sales News Remains Unsatisfactory / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
There were 3.642 million job openings in May according to the job openings and labor turnover report (JOLTS), which lags the employment report by one month. The job openings rate (number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings) moved up slightly to 2.7% in May from 2.5% in April, but matches the rate seen in March. The hiring rate (number of hires during the entire month as a percentage of total employment) at 3.3% in May has held at this level in three out of first five months of the year. Essentially, the report confirms the message from the employment report of sluggish labor market conditions.