Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, May 11, 2012
U.S. Trade, Initial Jobless Claims – Mixed Signals / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit widened to $51.83 billion in March from $45.42 billion in the prior month. Exports (+2.9%) and imports (+5.2%) of goods and services both advanced in March, but imports outpaced exports. After adjusting for inflation, the goods trade gap increased to $48.9 billion during March from $44.1 billion in the previous month. A large part of the widening of the trade gap was from the non-petroleum component with oil imports accounting for the relatively smaller share. Capital goods excluding autos (+7.8%), autos (+4.8%), and consumer spending excluding autos (+7.8%) were thelarge components of imports. Exports of capital goods excluding autos rose 2.7% in March.
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Thursday, May 10, 2012
Post-Financial Crisis – How do the Major Economic Players Stack Up? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The global financial crisis broke out in August 2007 and the U.S. economy plunged into a severe recession in December 2007 and the recovery commenced in June 2009. The financial crisis touched nearly all major economies across the world. Where do the major economies of the world stand as the fifth anniversary of the crisis is not too distant? If progress is measured in terms of real gross domestic product, the U.S. economy ranks behind Canada in the G7 (USA, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Canada, and Japan) but it is ahead of the euro area.
Thursday, May 10, 2012
Don’t Count China Economy Out / Economics / China Economy
By: Yiannis_G_Mostrous
Double-digit growth in the world’s second largest economy is officially over. China this month reported that gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 8.1 percent a year in the first quarter of 2012, down from 8.9 percent in the previous quarter.Investors were disappointed, anticipating a milder drop to 8.4 percent. Much of the slowdown in China’s GDP stemmed from a drop in demand for its exports in key markets including the US and Europe.
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Monday, May 07, 2012
Keynes' Legacy is 24% Unemployment Rate / Economics / Unemployment
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
In "'Lost generation' to suffer years of unemployment", Financial Times, 3 May, the legacy of Keynes was summed up by comments on Spanish youth,
"More than half of those under 25 are without work and face a bleak future. . ."
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Sunday, May 06, 2012
World Wide Debt, A Graphic Review of the Strategic Investment Conference / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: John_Mauldin
The US employment numbers came out this morning, and they were disappointing. But disappointing does not begin to describe the situation I read about today in Europe. I have just finished up with my conference in Carlsbad, California and am getting back to the room late. I have to get up in a few hours (4 AM is rather obscene) to fly to Tulsa to see my daughter graduate from university, but wanted to drop you a note as I normally do on Friday night. But given the time and the need for some sleep, tonight I will draw your attention to the writing of a few friends and some of the more interesting charts I saw at the conference. It will be a shorter letter than usual, but we will uncover a few real nuggets; and next week I will be back to a more normal writing schedule.
Sunday, May 06, 2012
Savings, investment, and the Keynesian preference, a follow-up / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Alasdair_Macleod
There is a general belief that government finances are somehow immune from the financial reality faced by everyone else – an illusion fostered by bond markets and supported by the public’s wishful thinking. Look no further than the plight of the eurozone for evidence of the reality. Not only that, but history tells us that countries regularly default, yet we continue to buy government bonds in the belief they are less risky than any private sector debt. And if we begin to question the status quo, we are even told by financial regulators that government debt is less risky than anything else. Banking regulation enshrines it in Basel Committee guidelines, and modern portfolio theory – which guides securities regulation – casts it in stone.
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Saturday, May 05, 2012
U.S. Systemic Jobs Crisis / Economics / Unemployment
By: Global_Research
Joseph Kishore writes: Only 115,000 jobs were added in the US in April, according to Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was significantly below expectations, and was the smallest gain in six months. It was well below the revised figure of 154,000 jobs added in March.
The official unemployment rate, which bears little resemblance to the actual level of joblessness, fell from 8.2 to 8.1 percent. This was due largely to the fact that more people gave up looking for work, and therefore are not counted as unemployed.
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Friday, May 04, 2012
Europe Is A Bigger Problem Than The Slowing U.S. Economy! / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Sy_Harding
Here’s the problem in just a handful of words.Germany is Europe’s strongest economy. Yet even its Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) fell to 46.2 in April from 48.4 in March. Any number below 50 indicates recessionary contraction. So the further plunge in its PMI has even Europe’s strongest economy sitting on the edge of a potential recession.
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Thursday, May 03, 2012
Will Germany Economic Growth Reaccelerate Soon? / Economics / Germany
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of Germany fell to 46.9 in April, which is a nearly three-year low. In other words, Germany, the juggernaut of the region, is experiencing a noticeable setback in factory activity. PMIs of nations have a strong positive relationship with GDP.
Tuesday, May 01, 2012
Europe Crisis from a European Perspective / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Alasdair Macleod writes: The purpose of this report is to give readers the essential background to the economic problems in Europe and to bring you up-to-date in what has become a fast-moving situation. At the time of writing, there has been a lull in the news flow, but that does not mean the problems are under control. Far from it.
Tuesday, May 01, 2012
U.S. Consumers Still Key to Economic Outlook / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
What I like most about Gary Shilling's economic analysis is that it's thorough.In the piece that follows – an excerpt from Gary's monthly INSIGHT – he ranges from the importance of US consumer spending and the unemployment rate, to the actions of the Fed, to business cost cutting and productivity, to the housing crisis and household debt, to state and local government fiscal issues, to US exports– Etc.! So by time he gets ready to deliver conclusions, you know they're well-supported. And Gary's overall conclusion here, regarding the rest of 2012, is a strong one and maybe not quite what you'd expect.
Saturday, April 28, 2012
U.S. Q1 2012 GDP Sends Mixed Message / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
The US economy expanded 2.2% in Q1 2012 versus 3% in Q4 2011 based on the first of three GDP estimates. Forecasts were for 2.5% growth with "whisper" numbers in the 3% range. As always on the surface this appears OK although one can easily argue this far into a "recovery" the economy should be growing at a faster pace. In fact the economy is closer to "stall speed" versus "escape velocity."
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Spain At Economic Depression, Soaring Unemployment Rate to 23.6% / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Shedlock
Via email from Barclays Capital, Spain: Q1 unemployment rate rises; trend likely to continue into H1 2013.
This morning Spain released labour market statistics for Q1. Seasonally adjusted, the unemployment rate rose to 23.6% from 23.1% in Q4 last year (Figure 1). We think that the labour market's deterioration is likely to continue over the next 3-4 quarters. We look for unemployment to peak at nearly 26% in H1 2013, before slowly starting to decline.
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Friday, April 27, 2012
U.S. Economy Having Difficulty Gaining Traction According to PIMCO's El-Erian / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Bloomberg TV's Betty Liu spoke with Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO, who said that the Federal Reserve is likely to provide additional assistance if the economy weakens further, but there is "no immediate need" to do so.
El-Erian also said that the U.S economy needs to add 250,000 to 300,000 jobs every month if we are to "seriously start reducing unemployment to something that is acceptable," but that "the labor market is cooling off and doing so too early."
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Friday, April 27, 2012
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims – Two Steps Forward, One Step Backward? / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
In the past few weeks, news from the labor market is pointing to less robust hiring than previously thought. Initial jobless claims slipped 1,000 and stand at 388,000 during the week ended April 21, the highest level since November 2011. The four-week moving average has risen to 381,750 from 363,000 during the week ended March 31. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, increased 3,000 to 3.315 million and have risen 44,000 in the last two weeks.
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Wednesday, April 25, 2012
IMF World Economic Outlook / Economics / Global Economy
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Why Read: Because this commentary links to the International Monetary Fund’s 2012 World Economic Outlook. You ought to read the Executive Summary, even if you elect not to scan the entire document or listen to the 45 minute transcript of a related Press Briefing.
Featured Report: The International Monetary Fund has just released its 2012 World Economic Outlook, sub-titled ‘Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain’. At a high level, this IMF Outlook suggests:
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Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Global Economies Decoupling Myth Destroyed / Economics / Global Economy
By: Michael_Pento
would have thought that the decoupling myth between global economies would have been completely discredited after the events of this past credit crisis unfolded. Back in 2007 and early 2008, investors were very slowly coming to the realization that the U.S. centered real estate crisis was going to dramatically affect our domestic economy.
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Tuesday, April 24, 2012
The Pain in Spain, Debt Spiral and Housing Market Crash / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
It really does seem to be All Spain All the Time, but there is a reason. Unlike Greece, Spain makes a difference to the eurozone. It may be both too big to allow to fail and too big to save. Last week I came across a very informative 50-page PowerPoint on the situation in Spain from Carmel Asset Management. It is too big to send, but I asked Jonathan Carmel to draft a smaller document with some of the key points. I find it compelling. You can access the entire PowerPoint on my website. If you are not registered with me, you will need to enter your email address and, if you would, your zip code or country. There is a lot if information and data in the report. It will certainly make you think.
I want to emphasize that I do not think Spain is hopeless. Rather, it has a narrow set of limited options that will require a great deal of austerity and economic pain on the part of Spain and significant help from the rest of Europe, combined with the forbearance and patience of the bond market or massive buying of Spanish bonds by the ECB for an extended period of time. I think it will need to be the latter, as the bond market is on the brink of breaking down on Spanish debt, failing a realistic path to economic balance and growth. The way ahead is most difficult and treacherous. It appears to me that at the end of the day only ECB participation can buy Spain the time it needs. If they give Spain the time, it can get through. But the pain will then be spread to the valuation of the euro and thus the entire eurozone.
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Tuesday, April 24, 2012
U.S. Mortgage Refinancing: Stimulative or Redistributive? / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
This "etude" has nothing to do with today's economic or market events. Rather, it is a little "acorn" for you to bury today and dig up in the future when some partial-equilibrium yahoo on CNBC says that total spending in the economy will get a boost as households refinance their mortgages at lower interest rates. Yes, the folks doing the refinancing will now have more income left over after making their monthly mortgage payment to spend on other things.
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Friday, April 20, 2012
Get Ready for 'Hot' Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Submissions
Gregor Macdonald writes: Ideological deflationists and inflationists alike find themselves both facing the same problem. The former still carry the torch for a vicious deflationary juggernaut sure to overpower the actions of the mightiest central banks on the planet. The latter keep expecting not merely a strong inflation but a breakout of hyperinflation.