Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Why You Should Prepare for Econcomic Catastrophe / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_North
It is not often that readers get a clear-cut choice between two forecasts. Most forecasts have wiggle room. Not the following.
1. The United States government will default.
2. The United States government will not default.
I hold the first position. John T. Harvey holds the second. He wrote a piece for Forbes defending his position: "It Is Impossible For The US To Default".
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Mexico, the “Forgotten” Emerging Market / Economics / Mexico
By: Benjamin_Shepherd
Mexico is the closest emerging market to the US, after all, it’s right next door but it hasn’t been getting much attention from American investors.A major reason is Mexico’s close linkage to the economic behemoth to its north. Mexico doesn’t just catch cold when America sneezes; it comes down with a nasty case of pneumonia.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 17, 2012
Slow Painful Economic Death Spiral of Debasement and Despair / Economics / Great Depression II
By: James_Quinn
ARE YOU SEEING WHAT I’M SEEING?
Is it just me, or are the signs of consumer collapse as clear as a Lowes parking lot on a Saturday afternoon? Sometimes I wonder if I'm just seeing the world through my pessimistic lens, skewing my point of view. My daily commute through West Philadelphia is not very enlightening, as the squalor, filth and lack of legal commerce remain consistent from year to year. This community is sustained by taxpayer subsidized low income housing, taxpayer subsidized food stamps, welfare payments, and illegal drug dealing. The dependency attitude, lifestyles of slothfulness and total lack of commerce has remained constant for decades in West Philly. It is on the weekends, cruising around a once thriving suburbia, where you perceive the persistent deterioration and decay of our debt fixated consumer spending based society.
Sunday, September 16, 2012
Is the "Fiscal Cliff" a Threat to the U.S. Economy? / Economics / Taxes
By: Frank_Shostak
The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said on August 22, 2012, that scheduled tax increases and spending cuts in 2013 would reverse the current modest economic recovery. The CBO and other experts are of the view that large government spending cuts and tax hikes will cause severe economic slump.
Sunday, September 16, 2012
Understanding Deflation, Pro Football Defense, Downside Pressure on Prices Has Only Begun / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
You've heard (and probably used) the phrase, "I'd rather watch the game on television."
It's what a sports fan says if he doesn't want to face traffic jams, inadequate parking, overpriced tickets, noisy crowds, and possibly a poor view of the game.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 13, 2012
Hyperinflation Is Virtually Assured – John Williams / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Videos
The Federal Reserve is talking about “unlimited QE,” or money printing, to boost employment. Economist John Williams says, “That’s absolutely nonsense. The Fed is just propping up the banks.” Williams says, “You’re likely going to see a dollar sell-off . . . That should evolve into hyperinflation.”
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
A Decade of Volatility: Demographics, Debt, and Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
Harry Dent gave a speech I listened to a while back, and I got him to transcribe it for this week's Outside the Box. One thing about Harry is, you are never left wondering what he thinks about a topic. He sees inevitable demography-caused deflation in our future and makes some very intriguing arguments that deserve pondering.
At the end is a link to another report and a way to subscribe to his letter, if you are interested in more of his perspective. But first, I suggest you read this straightforward, informative presentation. There is also a link to the actual video of him speaking, should you prefer that.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
ECB Calmed the Markets, Will China Act Next? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Frank_Holmes
After Mario Draghi announced the European Central Bank's new bond buying program, I was the first guest on CNBC Asia's Squawk Box to weigh in on this decision. I reiterated my stance that the endgame for Europe would be to print money, which will eventually lead to currency wars. These actions are positive for gold and also for increased economic activity.
Sunday, September 09, 2012
How Down Economic Statistics Can Be Up if You Make the Rules, QE3? / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: John_Mauldin
"In the financial markets, the current economic cycle is still often viewed as if it is comparable to the far shorter cycles we have experienced since World War II. If that was indeed the case, the solution would be to implement fiscal and monetary stimuli now until lending to the private sector and thereby growth rise substantially. However, what is being overlooked is that the total debt/GDP ratio has risen so sharply over the past 75 years that the limit has probably been reached.
Saturday, September 08, 2012
U.S. August Employment Data Contains Ample Evidence to Justify QE3 / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Before examining the nitty-gritty aspects of the August employment report, the main take away is that the overall tone of the numbers is disappointing. In addition, recent economic reports also cast a long shadow. The three consecutive monthly readings of the factory PMI that are below the critical mark of 50 (which denotes a contraction in factory activity) and the drop in July construction outlays are each sufficiently worrisome signals to win over the skeptics in the FOMC.
Saturday, September 08, 2012
Are Euro-zone Rescue Efforts Too Late To Prevent A Global Recession? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Sy_Harding
Economic growth continues to slow at an accelerated pace globally, not just in Greece and Spain, and other euro-zone countries in the headlines, but in the world’s ten largest economies of the U.S., China, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Italy, India, and Canada. The 17-nation eurozone as a whole is already in a recession. Many other nations are just barely keeping their heads above water.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 07, 2012
Central Banks Attack on Aggregate Demand / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Andy_Sutton
We are now at least somewhat clear on one central bank’s plans for the economies under control. Save a significant reversal, the European Central Bank (ECB) is going to ‘nuclear’. That is to say the bank will engage on a program of bond buying in the Eurozone that is unlimited in scope, duration, and magnitude. A thoroughly anemic August jobs report has now applied even more pressure on the USFed to act when it meets next week. While the markets will undoubtedly cheer any indication of further monetization or a formal announcement itself with a flurry of high-frequency trading activity, this is nothing for Mr. and Mrs. Main Street to get too excited about. Why? The idea that money is being pumped into the economy sounds pretty good especially if some of it lands in your lap, right? Once again, things are not always what they seem and this is another prime example.
Friday, September 07, 2012
U.S. Economic Report Card / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_Mills
Let's ask ourselves two simple questions;
- How do economists, and Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke is an economist, discern whether an economy is growing, is vibrant and healthy? Well, for most economists it's a simple number, they use a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to measure the state of the economy.
- What's the most important thing for a politician? The answer is getting reelected.
Thursday, September 06, 2012
U.S. Structural Unemployment Trillion Dollar Question / Economics / Unemployment
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Why read: Because it is arguable that the most important questions facing America and its politicians today are:
Tuesday, September 04, 2012
Competing with China, the Real Answers are Never that Simple / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:Q - The Chinese copy everything. Companies can't make money there, especially lately.
A - That's simply not true. Domestic Chinese companies have made plenty of money. So have foreign companies like McDonalds, ABB, Coke, and even GM, which have been fabulously successful there because they've taken the time to localize their products.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 04, 2012
Central Bankers Fail to Understand Forces Holding Back the Economy / Economics / Central Banks
By: Mike_Shedlock
Central bankers Debating the Limits of Power in Jackson Hole are wondering what's holding back the economy.
Read full article... Read full article..."What is holding the economy back? Why is it that we've had such incredibly accommodative monetary policy for so long (but) we've had so little growth? I think it remains a puzzle," said Donald Kohn, who is now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington.
Sunday, September 02, 2012
The U.S. Consumer Has In Fact Changed / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
The consumer represents 70% of total economic output. So as the bond market is to the capital market, so is the consumer to the economy. When the consumer sneezes, the economy catches more than just a cold.
Since the "end" of the 2008 recession something very interesting has happened to the US economy. The US consumer has actually changed their spending habits. They have actually started to live more within their means. And that is a very positive sign for a number of reasons both financially and socially.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 31, 2012
Europe Remains the Wildcard in the Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: The muted growth in Europe is far-reaching and negatively impacting the global economy…and the evidence for this is mounting.
Six eurozone countries are in a recession, and Germany and France could join in next year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 31, 2012
U.S. Economies Financial Tectonic Plates Are Shifting Once Again / Economics / US Economy
By: EWI
History books call the period after the War of 1812 "The Era of Good Feelings."
America was a young nation that had a sense of purpose. National political strife was at a minimum; optimism was in the air.
Major advances in technology and engineering brought the country turnpikes for easier travel and "The Canal Craze" for more efficient commerce.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 30, 2012
When Is Fractional-Reserve Banking Inflationary? / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_S_Rozeff
The takeaway here is that fractional-reserve banking is not inflationary per se. Fractional-reserve banking is inflationary when combined with central banks with unconstrained fiat money powers. The real culprit in inflation is an unconstrained central bank. Since central banks are created or enabled by governments, the real culprit in inflation is government. In turn, inflation cannot be controlled unless proper government, which really means proper law, is instituted and respected.