Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
U.S. Economy Flirting with Disaster / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
This week I offer a main course, a veritable piece de resistance, for Outside the Box readers, from my friend Rich Yamarone. Rich is Chief Economist for Bloomberg and one really sharp talent. He helps write Bloomberg Brief: Economics, a daily notebook that comes out every business morning with an all-encompassing view of what's happening and will happen.
I have been on stage with him several times recently and have spent even more time with him over dinners. He keeps reminding me to pay attention to the slow-motion slowdown and eventual (he says) recession that is coming right here to the US. He thinks ten-year bond rates could scare 0.5% (not a typo!) if/when both Europe and China have a simultaneous crisis and the US is seen as a real –and perhaps the last – safe haven (to which I would add: besides gold). Certainly 1% on the ten-year and 2% on the 30-year will be on offer in such a scenario.
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Monday, June 18, 2012
Heads A Deflationary Implosion - Tails A Hyperinflationary Depression... / Economics / Global Economy
By: Clive_Maund
The acute global economic crisis today is the direct result of the continued willful obstruction and overriding of the normal checks and balances that should operate within a capitalistic system of commerce. This interference has been perpretated by powerful banks and governments acting in collusion, for reasons of profit and power. At every instance in recent years when it looked like the economy was slipping into a necessary recession they have assumed a godlike role and stepped in to head it off.
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Monday, June 18, 2012
Krugman's Keynsian Economics, End This Nonsense Now! / Economics / Economic Theory
By: David_Gordon
End This Depression Now! By Paul Krugman. Norton, 2012. Xii + 259 pages
Supporters of Keynesian economics sometimes claim it to be a crude caricature of the Master that he thought the government has only to spend more money to get us out of a depression and that getting us into debt doesn't matter because we owe it to ourselves. Keynes, it is alleged, was a vastly more sophisticated thinker than this caricature portrays him to be. These defenders may find End This Depression Now! disconcerting. Krugman, who whatever his faults certainly is not lacking in technical sophistication, defends pretty much the cartoon version of Keynesianism that we are told is oversimplified.
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Monday, June 18, 2012
You Don’t Need to be a Lefty to Support Krugman Just Economically Illiterate / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Shedlock
Financial Times writer Samuel Brittan says You Don’t Need to be a Lefty to Support Krugman.
Brittan kicks off with "The remedy for too little spending is more spending. Everything else is commentary."
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Inflation or Deflation? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Why Read: Because whether we are going to be faced with inflation or deflation in the developed countries, and the world economy generally is a critical question - and one that affects not just investors, but everyone.
Featured Article: In a recently published article Michael Pento (Pento Portfolio Strategies), said to be an Austrian School of Economics specialist, says (among other things):
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Tuesday, June 12, 2012
Global Economic Growth, China Eases the Way / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
Following negative data last week, investors were clearly concerned about global growth and anxiously anticipated government actions. While Europe and the U.S. disappointed investors, China surprised on the upside by cutting interest rates. The market reacted positively, as the S&P 500 Index increased 3.7 percent.
It's clear the government's tone in China shifted this week with the rate cuts. The government appeared to be comfortable with slower growth, but that position seemed to change as the country took steps to avert a hard landing and cut interest rates to stabilize the economy.
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Tuesday, June 12, 2012
What Will Economic Austerity Look Like for America? / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: EWI
Since the start of the European sovereign debt debacle, the word "austerity" has been bandied about a lot.
It wasn't an everyday word, and may send some people to the dictionary. Merriam-Webster defines "austerity" this way: enforced or extreme economy.
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Monday, June 11, 2012
Free Trade: The Litmus Test of Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
Free trade is the litmus test of economic reasoning. It has been ever since David Hume wrote his 1752 essay on commerce.
Read full article... Read full article...Foreign trade, by its imports, furnishes materials for new manufactures; and by its exports, it produces labour in particular commodities, which could not be consumed at home. In short, a kingdom, that has a large import and export, must abound more with industry, and that employed upon delicacies and luxuries, than a kingdom which rests contented with its native commodities. It is, therefore, more powerful, as well as richer and happier. The individuals reap the benefit of these commodities, so far as they gratify the senses and appetites. And the public is also a gainer, while a greater stock of labour is, by this means, stored up against any public exigency; that is, a greater number of laborious men are maintained, who may be diverted to the public service, without robbing any one of the necessaries, or even the chief conveniencies of life.
Sunday, June 10, 2012
Asian Stock Market Crash Trigger?, Great Depression 2 / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Andrew_McKillop
Logically, a more globalized economy should generate globalized depressions as well as growth surges, that is increased synchronization should be easy to identify in the data: to be sure and certain, the exact opposite reasoning, of compensating de-synchronized regional movements in the economy is used by defenders of globalization. Today, it is Europe which is leading the OECD downward, while in 2008-2009, arguably, it was the USA but at the time the emerging economies of China, India, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, Argentina and other large or growing nonOECD economies were completely out of phase with the OECD group, and were growing strongly.
Sunday, June 10, 2012
The Fiasco of Fiat Money / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Thorsten_Polleit
Today's worldwide paper-, or "fiat-," money regime is an economically and socially destructive scheme — with far-reaching and seriously harmful economic and societal consequences, effects that extend beyond what most people would imagine.
Fiat money is inflationary; it benefits a few at the expense of many others; it causes boom-and-bust cycles; it leads to overindebtedness; it corrupts society's morals; and it will ultimately end in a depression on a grand scale.
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Sunday, June 10, 2012
The Danger of External Government Debts / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: Philipp_Bagus
Economists and journalists often point to the danger of external public debts — in contrast to internal debts, which are regarded as less troublesome. Japan is a case in point. Japan has an enormous public-debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 200 percent. It is argued that the high ratio is not a problem, because the Japanese save a lot and government bonds are held mostly by Japanese citizens; it is internal debt.
Thursday, June 07, 2012
The Day of American conomic Austerity: What Will It Look Like? / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: EWI
Since the start of the European sovereign debt debacle, the word "austerity" has been bandied about a lot.
It wasn't an everyday word, and may send some people to the dictionary. Merriam-Webster defines "austerity" this way: enforced or extreme economy.
But even knowing this definition might leave one wondering how "austerity measures" relate to Europe's debt crisis. The Associated Press (5/13) provided this overview:
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Thursday, June 07, 2012
The No Economic Growth Paradigm / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ashvin_Pandurangi
Western developed economies have been resorting to almost every possible trick they can conjure up to maintain financial stability and economic growth over the last few years. And while stimulus, interest rate cuts, monetary easing, currency swaps, liquidity operations, bailout/austerity programs, bank "re-capitalizations", loan guarantees, entitlement/welfare programs, data manipulation, etc. have kept them muddling through so far, the undeniable truth is that there will SOON come a time when none of those things makes the least bit of difference anymore.
Wednesday, June 06, 2012
When Economic Austerity Fails / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Colin_Twiggs
Austerity decimated Asian economies during their 1997/98 financial crisis and similar measures have failed to rescue the PIIGS in Europe 2012. David Cameron’s austerity measures have also not saved the UK from falling back into recession. So why is Wayne Swan in Australia so proud of his balanced budget? And why does Barack Obama threaten the wealthy with increased taxes while the GOP advocate spending cuts in order to reduce the US deficit? Are we condemned to follow Europe into a deflationary spiral?
Tuesday, June 05, 2012
Europe's Financial Fiasco: Migrating to the United States? / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Few Americans realize that the Great Depression started in Europe.
Now as then, the global economy is fragile.
The economy is clearly vulnerable to a debilitating wave of debt deflation. The threat is approaching quickly from an important source: Europe. The same sequence of events occurred in 1929, when deflation started overseas before lapping onto U.S. shores. In Germany, for instance, real GDP fell 1% in 1929 after growing 8.2% in 1927 and 2.8% in 1928. Other economic indicators peaked as early as 1927. At the time, economically-weak Germany was the equivalent of today's so-called PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain).
Financial Forecast , January 2012
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Monday, June 04, 2012
Gloomers and Doomers Still Twittering About Employment: So Why Does U.S. Exports Jobs? / Economics / Employment
By: Andrew_Butter
Oh dear, new headlines!! Only 69,000 more jobs in May…below “expectations” so now the America is doomed!!! Told you so…I predict there will be Armageddon unless of course someone DOES something.
In fact that’s certain unless “someone” does what my pet-theory says they should do. But they probably won’t because no-one understands my true genius, so that will teach them!!
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Saturday, June 02, 2012
U.S. Economic Recovery Reality Bites / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Many people became convinced that data releases earlier this year indicated that "recovery" in the U.S. was imminent. But as I have been saying for months, this evidence would ultimately be shown to be as reliable as sightings of Bigfoot. Lots of people claim to say they have seen it, some even produce plaster footprints, but in the end all we have is a guy in an ape suit. The economic recovery, that has been discussed so loudly and often in recent months, will be shown to be similarly mythical.
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Friday, June 01, 2012
U.S. Payroll's Disaster Made Worse by Grossly Distorted Unemployment Statistics / Economics / Unemployment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Jobs +69,000, Employment Rate +.1 to 8.2%, April Jobs Revised Lower to +77,000; Long-term Unemployment +310,000
Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate
- US Unemployment Rate rose .01 to 8.2%
- In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,653,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,307,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,345,000.
- This month the Civilian Labor Force rose by 642,000.
- Those "Not in Labor Force" decreased by 461,000. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed.
- Those "Not in Labor Force" fell to 87,958,000 from last month's record high of 88,419,000.
- By the Household Survey, the number of people employed rose by 422,000.
- By the Household Survey, over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,479,000.
- Participation Rate rose .2 to 63.8%
- There are 8,098,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work, an increase of 245,000
- Thus of the the net of 422,000 people presumably hired by the household survey, 245,000 were for part-time jobs.
- Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) rose by 310,000.
- Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.
Thursday, May 31, 2012
US Unemployment and the Ubiquitous 'Zombie Job' Market / Economics / US Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
Yesterday was Memorial Day. We said a prayer for all the brave men and women who died in war…after all, we have a heart!
But the brain never quite gets in sync. When it looks at what those soldiers were doing, it wishes they had never left home. America’s wars were almost all ‘wars of choice,’ says a friend. “They were fought to expand the power of the empire. The Mexican-American war was a bald-faced grab for Mexican land. The ‘Civil War’ was a battle to bring the South into submission. The US took Puerto Rico and the Philippines in the Spanish American war. President Wilson took the US into WWI simply to throw our weight around in Europe; we had no dog in that fight. He botched up the peace so badly that the Europeans went to war again 20 years later to sort it out. That was a war – WWII in Europe – that the US didn’t have to get involved in either.
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Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Labor Market Issues Hold Down U.S. Consumer Confidence Index in May / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped in May to 64.8 from 68.7 in the prior month. The sub-components of the index measuring the present situation (45.9 vs. 51.2 in April) and expectations of consumers (77.6 vs. 80.4 in April) declined in May. The current level of the Consumer Confidence Index is back to the mark seen in December. The Conference Board’s index is running counter to the improvement of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (79.3 vs. 76.3 in April). Labor market indicators play a big role in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index compared with the University of Michigan consumer optimism gauge.
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