Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
Yenfamy, Propelling Japan's Economy Toward Certain Reckoning / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: John_Mauldin
By Grant Williams writes: April 4 is a day when things tend to happen. Big things.
April 4, 1841 saw President William Henry Harrison, the ninth President of the United States, die of pneumonia after only 31 days in office. Twenty-four years later to the day, President Abraham Lincoln would be haunted by a disturbing dream. As Lincoln's close friend Ward Hill Lamon recollected:
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Wednesday, April 10, 2013
Why Bernanke Can’t Stop Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Clif_Droke
While there are many risks to the current ultra loose money policy, consumer price inflation isn't one of them. Inflation remains persistently low despite the best efforts of central banks to increase it.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) among the G7 economies was only 1.6%, year over year, during February. It was even lower at 1.4% excluding food and energy, according to economist Ed Yardeni. Meanwhile Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation rates are close to zero, Yardeni points out. In the euro zone, the CPI inflation rate is just 1.7%, and 1.4% excluding food and energy. Japan continues to experience deflation despite continuous efforts at reversing it through monetary easing.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2013
How Central Banks’ Easy Solution Could Devastate the Global Economy / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: Central banks around the world have opened the floodgates with massive levels of quantitative easing in an effort to try to stimulate their respective economies. Turning on the quantitative easing tap is easy; putting the genie back in the bottle will be extremely difficult for central banks globally.
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Monday, April 08, 2013
The Real U.S. Unemployment Rate is 13.9% / Economics / Employment
By: Money_Morning
Employers added just 88,000 jobs in March, according to the U.S. jobs report released Friday, hiring at the slowest pace since June 2012.
The number was a huge miss. Analysts expected a gain of 200,000.
"We all over shot it," Austan Goolsbee, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors in U.S. President Barack Obama's first administration, said on CNBC. "This is a punch to the gut. I mean, this is not a good number."
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Monday, April 08, 2013
The Economic World According To Stockman / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Andrew_McKillop
RIPELY CONSIDERED
In a review of main points from David Stockman's troublesome new book for peddlers of the mantra "We are all Keynesians now", in an economic world that Keynes wouldn't even be able to recognize, William Anderson listed the ways that "Neo Keynesians" not only hobble the fragile booms their basically schizophrenic policies produce, but also the fake recoveries that follow in their wake. In particular Anderson looks at Stockman's argument that when an economic boom crashes, the proper response of governments and monetary authorities should be to restore sound money and not try to prop up enterprises that failed in the crash. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39835.html
Sunday, April 07, 2013
The Real Reason There Will Be No Economic Recovery in America / Economics / US Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
Nothing much happened on Wall Street yesterday. The Dow rose 56 points. Gold was flat.
From the Daily Mail in London:
Read full article... Read full article...US sees highest poverty spike since the 1960s, leaving 50 million Americans poor...
Sunday, April 07, 2013
U.S. Non Farm Payrolls Report - Interesting Seasonality Factors / Economics / Employment
By: Jesse
As you may recall, the raw input into the Non Farm Payrolls report is the actual count of jobs which the BLS compiles.
To this number the BLS adds the output of the Birth-Death Model, which is their estimate of Jobs lost and created by new businesses not included in the report.
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Friday, April 05, 2013
The Stockman Backlash / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Peter_Schiff
This week, while economists should have been closely considering the implications of the actual bankruptcy of Stockton, California, they instead heaped scorn on the perceived ideological bankruptcy of David Stockman. In other words, Stockman trumped Stockton.
Wednesday, April 03, 2013
Zombie Parasites vs. Productives, Turning Argentine / Economics / Inflation
By: Bill_Bonner
Here in Argentina, most things were closed on Monday for the Easter holidays... and are closed again today, too.
What do these Argentines think they are? French?
We wandered the streets. Here in the Palermo Soho neighborhood of Buenos Aires, where we are staying, there were thousands of people window-shopping, eating in restaurants and drinking in outdoor cafes.
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Tuesday, April 02, 2013
America's Continuing Economic Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: LewRockwell
Seth Mason writes: This is not what economic recovery looks like. This is, however, what an economic depression looks like:
First, the American workforce is far smaller than it was before the 2008 economic collapse, even though the number of Americans of working age has increased by several millions:
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Monday, April 01, 2013
The Real Fallout From Cyprus Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2013
By: Michael_Pento
Holders of the Euro currency should be glad that the Troika is finally doing something besides just making more loans, printing more money and monetizing more debt—unlike what the Treasury and Federal Reserve is in the habit of doing. For me, this has to be positive for the Euro in the long term because the ECB is not expanding its balance sheet, while the Fed is rapidly expanding the U.S. monetary base.
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Friday, March 29, 2013
Preparing for Inflationary Times / Economics / Inflation
By: Jeff_Clark
"All this money printing, massive debt, and reckless deficit spending – and we have 2% inflation? I'm beginning to believe that either the deflationists are right, or the Fed's interventions are working." – Anonymous Casey Research reader
The CPI, in our view, does not accurately measure inflation, which accounts for some of the discrepancy our reader is pointing out. However, the proper definition of inflation is "an increase in the quantity of money," which we've had in spades. We've not experienced the concomitant increase in prices, which is what we're addressing in this article.
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Friday, March 29, 2013
The Real U.S. Inflation Rate and What to Do About It / Economics / Inflation
By: Don_Miller
A little over a month ago we did a quick poll on what our readers thought the real rate of inflation was. The idea for polling our readers came from the disconnect between the official government rate of around 1% and what some had told me they were experiencing first hand.
Thank you to everyone who participated, particularly those who shared frustrating examples of the ever-increasing cost of living. There were close to 100 pages of reader comments, and I read them all... every single word.
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Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Should Bernanke Park the Helicopter? / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Frank_Shostak
According to Ben Bernanke, pulling back on aggressive policy measures too soon would pose a real risk of damaging a still-fragile recovery.
The Fed chief is of the view that, for the purposes of financial stability, a continuation of the central bank’s aggressive stimulus, conducted through purchases of Treasury and mortgage securities, remains the optimal approach.
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Tuesday, March 26, 2013
The Economic Stimulus Trap / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Peter_Schiff
For years we have been warned by Keynesian economists to fear the so-called "liquidity trap," an economic cul-de-sac that can suck down an economy like a tar pit swallowing a mastodon. They argue that economies grow because banks lend and consumers spend. But a "liquidity trap," they argue, convinces consumers not to consume and businesses not to borrow. The resulting combination of slack demand and falling prices creates a pernicious cycle that cannot be overcome by the ordinary forces that create growth, like savings or investment. They say that a liquidity trap can even resist the extraordinary force of monetary stimulus by rendering cash injections into useless "string pushing." Some of these economists suggest that its power can only be countered by a world war or other fortunately timed event that leads to otherwise politically unattainable levels of government spending.
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Entrenched Deflation Threatens Economic Recovery / Economics / Deflation
By: Andrew_McKillop
TWO VIEWS ONLY
There are basically only two possible views. One is that entrenched deflation happens when there is persistent falling demand for credit and declining rates of money ciculation in the economy, driving down prices for goods, services and credit. This is confronted and made worse by increasing physical supply (and supply capacity) of goods and services. Due to generalized over-borrowing in the recent "economic cycle", QE Everywhere cannot fill the gap caused by secular deleveraging. All developed economies are "pushing on a string" and the temporary wealth effect of housing price and stock market gains has gone or will evaporate. They will all repeat the Japanese experience in their own way.
Monday, March 25, 2013
Hyperinflation? No. Inflation? Yes / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
While inflation seems to be on everyone’s mind these days, misconceptions abound. Indeed, few concepts in economics are as misunderstood as inflation. This month I take a look at some common questions about inflation, and a few that I wish more people were asking.
Monday, March 25, 2013
Exponentially Accelerating Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply
By: Alasdair_Macleod
The monthly figures for the US dollar components of Austrian, or True Money Supply, for February are now in. TMS plus excess reserves amount to the quantity of money that can be drawn down without notice, including time deposits that in practice can be instantly drawn down without notice, only foregoing interest. This is shown in the long-term chart below.
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Monday, March 25, 2013
Cyprus is in 'Difficult Times,' Faces Recession / Economics / Credit Crisis 2013
By: Bloomberg
Athanasios Orphanides, the former governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, told Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on "Bloomberg Surveillance" today that Cyprus "will face a deeper recession going forward."
Orphanides also said, "The other periphery countries should thank the Cypriot parliament for rejecting the earlier plan that was advanced about 10 days ago that essentially asked for the confiscation of deposits."
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Monday, March 25, 2013
Cyprus Shows Your Savings Will be Stolen! UK Theft is by Means of High Inflation / Economics / Credit Crisis 2013
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Different faces but the same old story is being replayed in a small part of the Euro-zone, Cyprus, and that story is one of the Cypriot banking crime syndicate gambling with depositor funds on the debt markets, this time it's Greek bonds, yes, these master-eds of the universe used depositor funds to pile into soon to go bankrupt Greece because of the high yields they offered so that the bankster's could bank bonuses on the basis of fictitious profits as illustrated by the fact that they have dumped an infinitely pile of losses (Greek Bond's ) onto Cypriot tax payers, far beyond anything that any other Euro-zone member has had to face to date.