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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, September 10, 2020

Unemployment Rate Drops. Will It Drag Gold Down? / Economics / Employment

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The U.S. labor market improved in August, although headlines paint too rosy a picture. What does it all mean for the gold market?

Great news for the U.S. labor market: according to the BLS, the American economy regained 1.4 million jobs, while the unemployment rate fell below 10 percent for the first time in the pandemic era! To be more precise, the unemployment rate declined from 10.2 percent in July to 8.4 percent in August, as the chart below shows.

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Economics

Sunday, August 30, 2020

3 Truths That Will Define This 3-Part US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

The economy recovery, when it comes—and it will—is going to be uneven.

In some parts of the economy, it's already starting. Other parts will be in what can only be described as a depression for quite some time. And still others are going to take off like a rocket ship.

This three-part economy won't fit compactly into the V- or U-shaped recovery that some are predicting (read: hoping) for. More likely, it will look like a "K."

Whether it's K-shaped or some other to-be-determined letter, there are three truths that will define this economic recovery:

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Economics

Friday, August 28, 2020

The US Economy Needs More Than a Vaccine / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Michael_Pento

The hype and hope being promulgated by Wall Street and D.C. is that the imminent and well-advertised approval of vaccines will bring the economy back to what they characterize as its pre-pandemic state of health. However, even if these prophylactics are very efficient in controlling the pandemic and lead the economy back to “normal”, the state of the economy was anything but normal and healthy prior to the Wuhan outbreak.  

The year over year change in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 from the trailing 12 months was just 2.3%. Admittedly, this wasn’t indicative of a terrible economy; but it also was very far from what many have portrayed as the best economy anyone has ever seen on the planet. Most importantly, to even get to that rather pedestrian level of just trend GDP growth for the year, the Fed had to slash interest rates three times in the five months prior to the start of 2020. And, please also remember that the Fed felt it necessary to return to Quantitative Easing (QE) in order to re-liquify the entire banking system and save the markets from crashing.

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Economics

Thursday, August 27, 2020

What the Covid-19 Economic Recovery Really Looks Like / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: John_Mauldin

The media and politicians like to talk about "the economy" as a general term. These days, there is a lot of talk about it having V- or U-shaped recovery.

But within the economy right now are several different economies, and they won't see recovery at the same time or rate. So if we have to choose a letter for what the recovery will look like, maybe it should be a “K.”

That's because some will go up while others go down. This is already happening and apparent, as Heather Long illustrates for The Washington Post:

"This dichotomy is evident in many facets of the economy, especially in employment. Jobs are fully back for the highest wage earners, but fewer than half the jobs lost this spring have returned for those making less than $20 an hour, according to a new labor data analysis by John Friedman, an economics professor at Brown University and co-director of Opportunity Insights."

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Economics

Wednesday, August 26, 2020

We Have an Economic Eight-Body Problem / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: John_Mauldin

If you have three large objects that have gravitational impact on each other, you can determine where they have been in the past.

However, you cannot predict where they will be in the future. At least, not without great difficulty.

In physics, this is called the three-body problem.

In economics, we are well beyond the three-body problem. I think it is more like an eight-body problem. See if you agree:

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Economics

Wednesday, August 26, 2020

What Makes This Recession Different From the Rest / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: John_Mauldin

"It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job;
it's a depression when you lose yours."

Harry S. Truman, 33rd US President

In recent weeks, numerous commentators started to suggest the US and the world are entering a depression.

For some areas of the economy, that is clearly true. But not every area.

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Economics

Sunday, August 23, 2020

CPI Goes Up in July. Will Inflation Dragon Take to the Air with Gold? / Economics / Inflation

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

CPI rises again in July. But will the inflation dragon take to the air, taking gold with it?

The U.S. CPI inflation rate rose 0.6 percent in July, for the second month in a row. The move was driven to a large extent by higher energy prices (the energy index increased 5.1 percent in June as the gasoline index rose 12.3 percent). The core CPI rose also 0.6 percent, following a 0.1 percent drop in May. It was the biggest monthly increase in the core rate since 1991.

On an annual basis, the overall CPI increased 1 percent (seasonally adjusted), following 0.7 percent increase in June. Meanwhile, the core CPI rose 1.6 percent, which implies the acceleration from 1.2 percent recorded in the previous month. So, as the chart below shows, inflation remains low, but it is no longer very low.
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Economics

Thursday, August 20, 2020

Economic Data Suggests Reopening, not Recovery. Will Gold Re-Rally Now? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Retail sales growth has slowed down. What does it mean for the U.S. economy and the gold market?

Retail sales increased 1.2 percent in July. The growth was worse than expected, which hit the U.S. stock market. As the chart below shows, the number was also much weaker than in the two previous months (8.4 percent gain in June and 18.3 percent jump in May), when it seemed that the economy started to rebound.
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Economics

Sunday, August 16, 2020

Hyper-Chaotic Expectations Could Collapse US Economic Recovery Expectations / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As much as we may not want to deal with the reality of the situation, recent news from the state of California suggests it and many other states may be reaching the fiscal boundaries of the COVID-19 economic contraction.  The reality of the economic situation is that when consumers are restricted from normal activities, taxes, sales, and revenues decrease for the state exponentially.  States that depend on consumers and business activity with very large budgets are at greater risk of experiencing immediate fiscal issues the longer the COVID-19 virus event continues.  A recent Moody’s Analytics article suggested Nevada, Hawaii, New York, Washington, Florida, DC, and Connecticut would be hit the hardest by the COVID-19 virus.

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Economics

Monday, August 10, 2020

Has the Fed Let the Inflation Genie Out of the Bottle? / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

The dramatic ascent of precious metals markets this summer reflects what could be just the start of a longer-term decline and fall in the Federal Reserve Note's value and status.

With gold prices surpassing $2,000/oz recently, the monetary metal has now made new all-time highs versus all the world’s major fiat currencies. Gold is, as former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan has acknowledged, the “ultimate money.”

The Fed, by contrast, is the ultimate inflator.

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Economics

Monday, August 10, 2020

Supply & Demand For Money – The End of Inflation? / Economics / Inflation

By: Kelsey_Williams

A current headline says “fears of currency debasement drive gold price higher”. Seems reasonable; and it is.

Historically, governments have been “debasing” their currencies for centuries. The debasement leads to a loss of purchasing power in the currency in use.

Since gold is original money and has proven itself to be a true store of value, then it should not be unexpected that gold’s higher price over time reflects that currency debasement.

The debasement leads to a loss of purchasing power in the currency in use.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Protracted G7 Economic Contraction – or Multiyear Global Depression / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Dan_Steinbock

Global growth prospects are deteriorating. Instead of a V-shaped recovery in the 2nd quarter, advanced economies will face historical carnage and a prolonged contraction. But there’s still worse ahead.

Current estimates for major advanced economies remain too optimistic, due to the mismanagement of the COVID-19, belated responses and premature exits, which have now caused far-earlier-than-expected secondary virus waves. As a result, the hoped-for V-shaped recovery will not happen in the 2nd quarter.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

How to benefit from the big US Infrastructure push / Economics / Infrastructure

By: Richard_Mills

The US economy continues to flounder like an East Coast freighter bashed by a mid-winter Nor-easter. 

Fifty million claims is the latest unemployment milestone surpassed by the American workforce during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic that has drubbed the United States worse than any other country including China, where it started. 

In a stark contrast of how the two biggest economies have fared, on Wednesday China reported its gross domestic product grew by 2.5% in the second quarter, beating analysts’ expectations and rebounding from a sickly first quarter when the country was assailed by the coronavirus. (Q1 output fell by 6.5%, the first quarterly GDP decline in China since 1992 when official records started being kept)

The news came as lockdowns to contain a second wave of covid-19 eased, and Beijing rolled out stimulus measures to keep its economy growing, including fiscal spending, cutting interest rates and lowering the amount of cash that banks must hold in reserve. 

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Economics

Sunday, July 19, 2020

Help the Economy by Going Outside / Economics / US Economy

By: Patrick_Watson

COVID-19 cases are growing fast in large parts of the US. The same folks who said the virus would just go away now say not to worry because fewer people are dying.

A lower mortality rate helps, but it’s still too high. The sheer number of sick people is straining hospital capacity some places. Viruses don’t care what anyone thinks; they just spread until something stops them.

The economy can’t recover if people fear infection everywhere they go. We need to balance public health and economic necessity.

Fortunately, scientists are learning how to reduce risk with fewer economic side effects.

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Economics

Sunday, July 19, 2020

The Six-Year Jobs Recession / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: John_Mauldin

Most of us work for some form of paycheck, even the self-employed. Few subsist on their own efforts. Even retirees, politicians, and welfare recipients live off someone’s labor, if not their own.

Savings, if you have any, are the result of past labor. That makes a job shortage problematic for everyone, not just the jobless.

The June US employment report showed some welcome improvement. Businesses brought back many workers as parts of the country reopened. That’s great but it was only a start. We need several more months like that, and it’s not at all clear they are coming.

To be fair, there isn’t a lot of clarity when we look back at past data, either.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 08, 2020

States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: John_Mauldin

“The future progression of the pandemic remains highly uncertain.”

The Federal Reserve wrote those words to Congress in its recent “Monetary Policy Report.” These are usually rather vague, dry documents on everything the Fed is doing right and what could possibly go wrong. This report is more interesting than usual because so many things have gone wrong and may get even worse.

Not that the Fed has good answers, of course. But here’s what it does know.

Many of the first countries the virus struck—China, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Italy, Spain—brought it under control with aggressive lockdowns, testing, contact tracing, social distancing, and isolation of confirmed cases.

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Economics

Monday, July 06, 2020

The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

You can’t live without making certain presumptions. You presume your car will start, your refrigerator will stay cold, and the lights will turn on when you flip the switch.

In fact, you could argue this “predictability” is what separates advanced economies from primitive ones. Most of us don’t have to worry about being attacked in our sleep or having food tomorrow. That security frees us to do other things.

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Economics

Monday, July 06, 2020

The Corona Economic Depression Is Here / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Patrick_Watson

The US economy entered recession at the end of February, according to the economists who officially define such things. But will it get even worse?

In some ways, this is already beyond the 1930s Great Depression. Mass unemployment happened much faster this time and it looks like millions will be jobless for a long time.

We can identify recessions statistically, but “Depression” is fuzzier.

Geopolitics expert George Friedman noted recently that recessions are a cyclical financial process. They’re painful, but the economy recovers. A depression is more than an especially severe recession. It changes the existential reality of daily life. The financial, business, and job consequences are only the beginning.

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Economics

Thursday, July 02, 2020

After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Dan_Steinbock

Recently, the IMF downgraded most growth projections, due to weaker private consumption and elevated uncertainty in investment. Those are the twin engines of the Philippine economy. So, what’s ahead for economic recovery?

As I wrote in a report 2 months ago (click here), the global economic outlook of the International Monetary Fund (April 2020) was too optimistic. Last week, the IMF downgraded most of its projections. Now global growth is projected at -4.9% in 2020, almost 2 percentage points below the previous forecast.

Consumption growth has been downgraded for most economies, due to the larger-than-anticipated disruption to domestic activity. Worse, investment is expected to remain subdued as firms defer capital expenditures amid elevated uncertainty.

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Economics

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Hainan’s ASEAN Future and Dark Clouds Over Hong Kong / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Dan_Steinbock

The Hainan Free Trade Port plan is aligned with China’s new Silk Road initiatives, the Greater Bay Area plan and deeper ties with Southeast Asia. Hong Kong’s real threats are closer and farther.

On June 1, the Chinese government published its Hainan masterplan. It seeks to transform the southernmost province, separated from Guangdong’s Peninsula by the Qiongzhou Strait, into a Free Trade Port (FTP). The plan will turn China’s largest and most populous island to its biggest special economic zone (SEZ).

The initiative stems from the early days of Chinese economic reforms. Following the first special economic zones in Guangdong and the opening of further 14 coastal megacities to overseas investment, the government disclosed its plan to transform Hainan into China’s largest SEZ in 1988.

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