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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, February 04, 2019

Darker Clouds over Europe / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Dan_Steinbock

Not only is Europe’s expansionary cycle fading, but the region is about to face challenges that it has to tackle amid growing political fragmentation.

Italy slipped into recession in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to new data. France continues to be haunted by Yellow vests protests. Germany has entered an era of uncertainty. And Brexit overshadows the UK future.

In the absence of Trump’s tariffs, Europe could have benefited from a nascent recovery of world trade, investment and finance. But now even these hopes are diminishing.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, February 02, 2019

Hyperinflation -- A Kaleidoscope Of Uses And Abuses / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Steve_H_Hanke

The word “hyperinflation” is sprinkled throughout the press each day. We read that Iran is hyperinflating. The same is written about Zimbabwe and Venezuela, as well as a potpourri of other countries that are experiencing inflation flare ups. While Iran came close to a hyperinflation in the fall of 2012, it has never experienced an episode of hyperinflation. And, while Zimbabwe experienced hyperinflation episodes in 2007-2008 and 2017, it is not hyperinflating now. At present, Venezuela is the only country experiencing a hyperinflation. It’s clear that journalists and those they interview tend to play fast and loose with the word “hyperinflation.”

To clean up the hyperinflation landscape, we must heed the words of the great Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, one of the founders of the Austrian School of Economics, who, in 1891, wrote “…We too must bring into our science a strict order and discipline, which we are still far from having…by a disorderly and ambiguous terminology we are led into the most palpable mistakes and misunderstandings – all these failings are of so frequent occurrence in our science that they almost seem to be characteristic of its style.”

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Economics

Saturday, February 02, 2019

The U.S. Declares Economic War Against Venezuela / Economics / Venezuela

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Since the election of Hugo Chavez in December of 1998, Venezuelans have embraced Chavismo. This peculiar form of socialism has allowed Venezuela to morph into what is in essence an organized crime syndicate and has pushed the country in an economic death spiral. For the stunning evidence of this death spiral, we need look no further than Venezuela’s inflation rate.

Today, Venezuela’s annual inflation rate is 112,189%/yr. The chart below tracks the daily measurements of this annual rate. Unlike the fantastic inflation forecasts thrown around by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the data in the chart are real measurements—accurate measurements.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

This Is the Key to Understanding China’s Economy / Economics / China Economy

By: John_Mauldin

China is facing many challenges. That’s probably not news to you.

But what we often fail to understand is this: China will deal with those challenges in a much different way than what we are used to in the West.

To solve Europe’s financial woes in 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi promised to do “whatever it takes.” Yet central bank policy was his only tool.

Xi Jinping has a vastly larger toolbox. It is hard for us in the Western world to understand that.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Europe Has No Control Over Its Future. Period. / Economics / European Union

By: John_Mauldin

Whenever we talk about the European economy, Germany drives the discussion.

Yes, the UK and France are big, but Germany is the giant. If Germany sneezes, the rest of the continent catches cold.  

And it is sneezing hard right now.

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Economics

Friday, January 25, 2019

Will We See a Recession and a Rally in Gold in 2019 or 2020? / Economics / Recession 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We will see a recession and a rally in gold in 2019 or 2020. True or false? We invite you to read our today’s article about ‘recession in 2020’ narrative and find out what it all means for the gold market.

114 months. So long is the current US economic expansion. It officially started in June 2009, and if the country avoids recession until July 2019, the uptrend in the business cycle will exceed 120 months, becoming the longest expansion since at least 1857, when the NBER began recording economy.

Last year, we analyzed the popular claim that “the current expansion is so long, that it must end soon”. Surprisingly for us, we reached similar conclusions to Janet Yellen, who said once that expansions do not die of old age.

However, many analysts present more sophisticated arguments for the upcoming crisis. For example, Morgan Stanley has recently estimated the odds of recession in the US at 15 percent in 2019 and 30 percent in 2020. Larry Summers, the former Treasury Secretary, has gone even further, putting the chances of a recession in the US within the next two years at about 50 percent.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, January 24, 2019

If China Falls, so Will America / Economics / China US Conflict

By: John_Mauldin

The US and China are the world’s largest and second-largest economies.

They are also entwined in so many ways that it’s hard to tell where one ends and the other starts. Some call it “Chimerica.” which is an apt description.

But that’s not bad.

International trade promotes peace and prosperity for all. It’s not always smooth, evenly distributed, or free of issues. But such is the nature of great affairs.

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Economics

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Recession Signals - Daylight, Nighttime, And Cycles Of Risks And Opportunities / Economics / Recession 2019

By: Dan_Amerman

Numerous warning signals of a coming recession have appeared recently, and there have been rapid changes in bond prices, stock prices and Federal Reserve policies.

Yet, the stock market indexes are rising again, and the economic and financial fundamentals remain strong in many ways. Are the widespread fears of recession overblown?

In the search for answers, this analysis explores 164 years of economic history, and the 34 previous "night and day" iterations of recession and expansion. By studying the average expansion and recession, many insights can be gained in terms of what economies look like shortly before recession, and whether history shows that the current robust economic statistics are in fact a reliable argument against another recession starting within the next 1-2 years.

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Economics

Monday, January 21, 2019

From ASEAN Economic Development to Militarization / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Dan_Steinbock

In Africa, the Trump administration is setting a precedent by replacing economic development with militarization. In Asia, it seeks to couple “rebalancing” in trade with a rearmament drive.

In a recent editorial, The Manila Times expressed concern that relatively benign economic conditions may lead to a false sense of security as “the United States-China trade war may be starting to inflict collateral damage on the economy.”

In the short-term, it is a valid concern for the Philippines and other ASEAN economies that currently benefit relatively benign economic conditions.

But even if the worst excesses of the trade war could be deterred, there are darker clouds in the longer-term horizon. The Trump administration’s new trade protectionism is accompanied by increasingly military stance. The new US Africa strategy heralds changes in other regions as well, particularly Asia.
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Economics

Monday, January 21, 2019

Tips for Writing Assignment in Hurry / Economics / Education

By: Umer_Mahmood

...

 


Economics

Sunday, January 20, 2019

Venezuela's Hyperinflation Hits 80,000% Per Year in 2018 / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Venezuela's economy has collapsed. This is the result of years of socialism, incompetence, and corruption, among other things. An important element that mirrors the economy's collapse is Venezuela's currency, the bolivar. It is not trustworthy. Venezuela's exchange rate regime provides no discipline. It only produces instability, poverty, and the world’s highest inflation rate for 2018.  Indeed, Venezuela’s annual inflation rate at the end of 2018 was 80,000%.

I observed much of Venezuela’s economic dysfunction first-hand during the 1995-96 period, when I acted as President Rafael Caldera’s adviser. But it wasn’t until 1999, when Hugo Chavez was installed as president, that the socialist seeds of Venezuela’s current meltdown started to be planted. This is not to say that Venezuela had not suffered from an unstable currency and elevated inflation rates before the arrival of President Chavez, but with his ascendancy, fiscal and monetary discipline further deteriorated and inflation ratcheted up. By the time President Nicolas Maduro arrived in early 2013, annual inflation was in triple digits and rising. Venezuela entered what has become a death spiral.

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Economics

Sunday, January 20, 2019

Hyperinflation - Zimbabwe's Monetary Death Spiral / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Steve_H_Hanke

President Mnangagwa’s pledge that Zimbabwe is “open for business” rings hollow. Indeed, many businesses in Zimbabwe are shuttered. An increase in government controlled fuel prices over the weekend has ignited simmering fury over what is in fact a currency crisis. In response, Zimbabwe’s security forces have launched a violent crackdown on protestors and opposition politicians. The crackdown has been done under the cover of a social media blackout. Yes, the internet is shuttered, too.

In a sense, the only thing new in this uprising is President Mnangagwa himself. Recall that it was he who organized a coup that removed the long-serving, strongman Robert Mugabe from power in 2017. This was followed by what many claim was a rigged election by the Mugabe-Mnangagwa ruling ZANU-PF party. Rigged or not, the election gave Mnangagwa’s Presidency the patina of legitimacy.

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Economics

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Mauldin: My 2019 Economic Outlook / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

I recently did a “2019 Investment Outlook” webinar with my business partner Steve Blumenthal.

We looked at three topics: recession probability, credit conditions, and stock valuations. I can tell, we went deep on the webinar. You can read a transcript or view a recording here.

Here I’ll give you an abbreviated version of that webinar.

Economists Can’t Recognize Recessions in Real Time

Steve started the webinar by noting we are late in an economic cycle. He showed the chart below to illustrate how all cycles have expansion periods that end with recession.

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Economics

Friday, January 04, 2019

China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen / Economics / Global Economy

By: FXCOT

We had noted of the coming storm in equity markets worldwide in our research to clients. A part of that research can be found herE: The coming storm . Also here: We did say. We also had noted of the fall in USDJPY rom 113 to 110 levels. But the pair fell even more and wiping away billions in retail margins.

We do suggest to forex traders to keep us boookmarked and also follow us on twitter. You can also register to be updated of important research we send so you are not caught on the wrong side of the market.

We run a highly successful forex trade copier. It is has made over +130% return in 2018. It has been running since 2010 and has made over 100% return every single year since 2010.

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Economics

Thursday, January 03, 2019

Sri Lanka’s Short Term Outlook Is Hazy: Limited Pockets of Value Present / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Dylan_Waller

Sri Lanka 2019-2020 Outlook: Neutral Outlook for the Equity Market/Looking Elsewhere

The recent political crisis in Sri Lanka, coupled with its less favorable external position, has resulted in the depreciation of its currency and sell off in the stock market this year. Moody’s downgraded Sri Lanka’s sovereign credit to B2, while other countries funding Sri Lanka previously announced concerns due to the rising political risks. These issues all came at a time when Sri Lanka’s economy was beginning to rebound somewhat from the lows of 2017, though growth has still not been able to break 4% in recent quarters. Poor Q3 performance further exacerbates economic concern for the market, which should now not see a meaningful rebound until 2020.  Sri Lanka’s external debt still remains a looming issue, and foreign exchange reserves have also been depleted somewhat in recent months compared to historical norms. FX reserves currently only cover around 3.8 months of imports and 54% of the country’s short term external debt. Notably, the increased political clarity seen in recent weeks will result in a gradual release of funding that was put on hold due to the political uncertainty, and paints a brighter economic picture. This would include funding from Japan, Millenium Challenge Corporation, and the IMF.

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Economics

Monday, December 31, 2018

China’s 2019 Economic Growth Outlook / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

As China’s growth seems to be slowing, some observers see the country amid a “severe downturn.” As they mistake China’s secular deceleration with cyclical fluctuations, they miss the rapid increase in Chinese living standards.

Amid the Christmas meltdown, the Dow Jones plunged to less than 22,000, the lowest since September 2017. Thereafter, it soared over 1,000 points; the biggest single-day point gain ever. Nevertheless, it has declined 4,000 points in two months.

It is this historical market volatility associated with the Trump administration that now overshadows world economy and China. In recent weeks, the U.S. economy has become increasingly exposed to policy mistakes and drastic market fluctuations.

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Economics

Saturday, December 29, 2018

How Trump’s Trade Policies Actually Damage the Economy / Economics / Protectionism

By: Patrick_Watson

We have a temporary truce in the trade war.

No one is quite sure if it will last, especially financial markets. After a short-lived rally, they saw little to celebrate in the latest Trump-Xi meeting. 

The US and China have serious disputes. And I think tariffs are the wrong tool to solve them. So I’m not optimistic this break will accomplish much either. We’ll see.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Why Chinese Economic Reforms Will Stay the Course / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

After four decades of reforms and opening, China is accelerating the transition to post-industrial society.

As Chinese President Xi Jinping gave his highly-anticipated speech on Monday on the 40th anniversary of Chinese reforms and opening-up policies, it was closely watched internationally in light of the 90-day truce in the U.S. trade wars.
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Economics

Friday, December 07, 2018

This Is the End of Trump’s Economic Sugar High / Economics / US Economy

By: Patrick_Watson

By most measures, the US economy is performing okay. GDP growth is still near 3.5%. Unemployment is below 4%. Inflation is up a bit but still historically low.

Yes, the data has flaws. There’s plenty of regional variation. Your mileage may vary. But conditions could be a lot worse.

The problem: Sometimes the economy weakens beneath the surface.

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Economics

Thursday, December 06, 2018

Is The US Economy Heading Into A Recession? / Economics / Recession

By: Avi_Gilburt

Recently, one of my members of Elliottwavetrader was in attendance at the 32nd Economic Outlook Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. On the first day, he sat in a room with 150 economists. When asked how many see a recession in 2019, all of two hands went up.

So, let me ask you a question: When was the last time the majority of economists correctly called for a recession? (I think we all know the answer to this one).

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