Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
India Worries as China Builds Ports in South Asia / Economics / China Economy
By: Trader_Mark
Continued signs of stress among the 2 developing Asian powers. Not the first sign that China's new heavyweight status is causing consternation. [Dec 15, 2009: China's Economic Power Unsettles Neighbors] [Jun 13, 2009: Australia in Perfect Position Aside China, but at a Cost?] China appears to be following the same strategy in South Asia that it has taken in Africa ....
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Goldman Sachs Says China Currency and Economy Trouble Brewing / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
With a lot of eyes focused on the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain), especially Greece and Spain, please don't forget about China. Goldman’s O’Neill Says ‘Something Brewing’ in China on Currency.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
UK Inflation Smashes Through 3%, Hits 3.5%, Bank of England Says Don't Panic! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The inflation mega-trend continues to forcefully manifest itself in the continuing surge higher of UK Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which soared from 2.9% to 3.5% for January data. Inflation has virtually doubled in a little over 2 months rising from 1.9% for November data to now stand at 3.5%, the surge in inflation has caught the whole mainstream media and academic economists by surprise that barely 2 months ago were still contemplating deflation. The RPI continued its spike higher rising to 3.7% from 2.4% the month before, and the real UK inflation rate as measured by the Market Oracle rose from 2.7% to now stand at 4.3%.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
World Watches Greek Debt Sideshow as Latvia's Economy Collapses by 25% / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Michael_Hudson
Prof Michael Hudson and Prof. Jeff Sommers write: World Economic Crisis: Latvia’s Neoliberal Madness - While most of the world’s press focuses on Greece (and also Spain, Ireland and Portugal) as the most troubled euro-areas, the much more severe, more devastating and downright deadly crisis in the post-Soviet economies scheduled to join the Eurozone somehow has escaped widespread notice.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Is the Recession Over? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
There is some debate about whether the recession is over. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a non-governmental organization made up of economists, has a committee that meets and decides after the fact when recessions begin and when they end. Martin Feldstein, the former president of the NBER, focusing on the job market, said last November that "the current downturn is likely to last much longer than previous downturns ... We will be lucky to see the recession end in 2009."
Monday, February 15, 2010
Marc Faber on China Economy Over Capacity Risk of Potential Crash / Economics / China Economy
By: Submissions
Marc Faber discusses the financial markets, specifically China's building of over capacity that could result in a stock and economic crash. Though this would still just be a temporary set-back in the long-run as the infrastructure built would help the China continue to grow in the future.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Is Krugman Harry Potter? Keynesian Fantasy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: William_Anderson
One of the things one learns (or should learn) in an economics graduate program is that while we hold to certain laws of economics, we do not view the world through a template, and especially one structured from political talking points. For example, as an economist, I can say that if one raises the minimum wage during a recession, one of the results will be increased unemployment among lower-skilled workers, and especially teenagers.
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Nightmare Macro Economics, Keynesian and New Keynesian Variety / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Michael_S_Rozeff
Paul Krugman is such an economist. Austrian economist Bill Anderson's highly recommended blog, Krugman-in- Wonderland, deconstructs Mr. Krugman on a daily basis. There is a lot there that needs to be deconstructed.
Saturday, February 13, 2010
Greece Debt Crisis a Precursor to New Era of Sovereign Risk / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
A Path-Dependent World
Between Dire and Disastrous
A National Suicide Pact
It's More than Just Greece
R.I.P., Walt Ratterman
The news is somewhat "All Greece, All the Time," but most of the pieces miss the more critical elements, and in today's letter we will look at what I think those are, as well as at the important point that Greece is a precursor of a new era of sovereign risk. Plus, we glance at a few rather silly recent comments from economists. It will make for a very interesting discussion.
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Friday, February 12, 2010
Greek, European Debt Crisis Boosts the U.S. Dollar / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Andy_Sutton
News junkies, currency buffs, and economists of an Austrian tilt have been having quite an entertaining few weeks. Between massive blizzards from Virginia to New England, another baseless Dollar rally, and the hilarious notion that a little Greek debt could unwind the Euro, there certainly has been plenty to talk about. These ‘black swan’ events are certainly becoming more and more commonplace these days; almost to the point where they can’t even be called black swans anymore. What would previously have been considered ridiculous is now normal, and what was normal is now considered ridiculous. Such is the way of things as empires unwind. Our circumstance today is no different.
Friday, February 12, 2010
Global Economic Crisis RED ALERT, Asian Financial Tsunami Wave About to Hit / Economics / Financial Crash
By: Matthias_Chang
This will be one of my shortest articles as it is written as a RED ALERT.
When I send out Red Alerts, it is a dire warning and a call for immediate action to protect your wealth (if there is any remaining).
Friday, February 12, 2010
Antal Fekete Fantasy Land Monetary Theory of Hyperinflation That Creates Bonds Boom and Falling CPI / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
Antal Fekete has published an article, "There Is No Business Like Bond Business." It was published on the 24hgold site, which my site links to (my gold price chart). Some of you may have read it. Some of you may be confused. Let me de-confuse you.
Friday, February 12, 2010
Misguided Economists Say U.S. Unemployment Rate Has Peaked / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Economists are giddy once again, following news that weekly unemployment claims dropped to 440,000.
"In the week ending Feb. 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 440,000, a decrease of 43,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 483,000. The 4-week moving average was 468,500, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average of 469,500."
Friday, February 12, 2010
Global Business Cycle Bottoms But Economic Recovery Remains Mixed / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Donald_W_Dony
Global data continues to reinforce the idea that the world business cycle has bottomed and that growth is starting to advance. Economic numbers stress that after six quarters of steady contraction, a floor appears to have formed in mid-2009. Most global economies have felt expansion for the last six months. But this increase is not well divided. Domestic developed nations have emerged from the depths at a considerably slower pace than many Asian nations. The USA has been dwarfed by the new Asian economies of China and India. This trend, going into 2010 and 2011, will likely reshape the trading patterns of the world from west to east.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Greece Soverign Debt Crisis, The Way Forward, if Any! / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Vishal_Damor
Morgan Stanley
did quick and extensive scenario analysis along with an update of the Greece situation. Presented below are key highlights and my read.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Euro Trashed? / Economics / Euro
By: John_Browne
The European experiment with a trans-sovereign currency is facing its first acid test. The flashpoint today is Greece, which looks set to default on its debt barring some outside intervention. While many commentators have been squawking about the immediate crisis as if it were the end of life on Earth, I would like to zoom out and discuss the history and longer-term outlook for the euro and its parent, the European Union.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
The Economic Depression is Not Over / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Frank_Shostak
Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 5.7% in Q4 after rising by 2.2% in Q3 — the quickest pace in more than six years. This was above Wall Street economists' forecast for a 4.6% increase in Q4. The yearly rate of growth of real GDP climbed to 0.1% in Q4 from −2.6% in Q3. The yearly rate of growth of GDP at current prices, i.e., nominal GDP increased by 0.8% in Q4 from −2.1% in the prior quarter.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Southern Europe Debt Crisis, Economies Teetering in the Brink of New Recession / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Gary_North
The euro is the focus of attention these days. This is because of a fiscal crisis in Greece, and looming crises in Portugal and Spain. Italy could follow.
What is the problem? Greece is running a huge deficit in the range of 12.7% of its Gross Domestic Product. The investment world regards a deficit of this magnitude as unsustainable. There are rumors of default.
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Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Ceridian - UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Guy_Lerner
The Ceridian - UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index tracks fuel purchases at 7000 truck stops around the country, and the idea is that the index will mirror industrial production providing a timelier snapshot into the state of the economy. The index was developed by the UCLA Anderson Center in conjunction with credit card processor Ceridian.
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Wednesday, February 10, 2010
The Inflationary Economic Depression, PIIGS Propaganda Drives Scared Money Into the Dollar / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
The inflationary depression still dominates and probably will continue to do so. In time the stimulus will fail to work and the world will slip into total insolvency and deflationary depression. The old M3 is about 3%, but we still have $23.7 trillion floating around. Not only is the US bankrupt, but also so is the rest of the world. It is now only a question of when the dominos will fall. It looks like the first wave in the collapse of the bear market rally is underway. Bonds will follow with higher interest rates and eventually commodities will be hit. Only gold and silver will survive, as the bankers and Wall Street complete their destruction of the world economy.