Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
PIMCO's Bill Gross Says Invest in 'Less Levered' Countries / Economics / Investing 2010
By: Trader_Mark
This morning we had Jeremy Grantham's much read quarterly letter, and now we have Bill Gross' widely followed monthly letter. In this month's missive, he essentially summarizes where we plan to be invested long for the next few decades - countries who act (relatively) fiscally responsible, with solid demographics, and either are modern commodity rich "Western" nations or developing countries who are akin to investing in the US in the 1950s, 1960s. Old habits die hard and people still believe the fiscally irresponsible, borrow / spend developed economies are still the place to be... they are "safe". bah.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Robert Shiller on Flawed Economic Theory and the U.S. Housing Market Signs of Life / Economics / US Economy
By: Submissions
Robert Shiller discusses flawed economic theory that forgets that people drive economy, financial sector regulation and signs of life bubbling back into the U.S. Housing Market.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Nouriel Roubini From Davos Says Western Economies Weak Economic Recovery 2010 / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Submissions
Weak economic recovery under way due to weak labour markets. First half of 2010 will be better than second half due to stimulus factors. Expects an eventual stock market correction (last October he was calling for a 10% to 20% drop that never transpired), and bearish on commodities.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Russia Settles USSR's Debt to London Club / Economics / Russia
By: Pravda
Russia has finally paid off the debt to the London Club of Creditors. Russia has thus paid the entire debt of the former Soviet Union to private-owned commerce banks in Western Europe, the USA and Japan. The debt appeared as a result of the loans, which the USSR’s Vnesheconombank (Foreign Economic Bank) raised in the above-mentioned countries before December 31, 1991.
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Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Marc Faber on Sovereign Debt Default Risks and the Real Value of Gold / Economics / US Debt
By: Submissions
Alex talks with contrarian investment analyst and entrepreneur Marc Faber. Faber publishes the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom Boom & Doom Report. Marc Discusses Debt monetization to boost gold and emerging markets. Some economic recovery for next 3 months, but outlook beyond looks poor due to the large deficit which means higher interest rates.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Fed Starting to Unwind Loose Monetary Policy, Could Trigger Secondary Recession / Economics / Money Supply
By: Gary_North
Officials at the Federal Reserve System insist that the FED will unwind its more than doubled monetary base. They do not say when. They do not say how. But they insist that they will do this when the economy recovers.
The FED has begun this process. The press has not paid any attention to this, but the evidence is unmistakable. Any time you want to monitor any of this, search Google for "Federal Reserve charts." You can see for yourself.
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Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Undervalued Renminbi Is The Greatest Threat To Economic Recovery / Economics / China Currency Yuan
By: Peter_Navarro
Sir, Michael Spence is dead wrong in arguing that “the west is wrong to obsess about the renminbi” (January 22). An undervalued renminbi represents the single greatest threat to global economic recovery and a dangerous inflationary trigger within China.
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Tuesday, January 26, 2010
The Nature of Socialism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Mateusz Machaj writes: I first met Professor Hans-Hermann Hoppe in 2003, when he visited Poland for a libertarian conference. Most of the participants were interested in normative issues and political philosophy, whereas very few were interested in Austrian economics. Hence, I was coincidentally the only one to engage with Professor Hoppe in extensive discussions on theories of the Austrian School. I did not hesitate shamelessly to consume his time for the personal benefit of learning more about economics from one of Rothbard's most important followers. After this meeting, fortune continued to smile on me — it turned out that despite substantial geographical distance, I have enjoyed such productive conversations with my German mentor at least few times a year.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Social Security “Fixes” Will Compound Existing Economic Problems / Economics / US Economy
By: Nilus_Mattive
I take retirement matters very seriously, which is why I’m constantly on the alert for any hint of a change coming out of Washington.
And make no mistake: There have been times when I agree with new legislation. For example, I had no problem with the temporary suspension of required minimum distributions last year. I also love this year’s revamped Roth conversion laws.
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Tuesday, January 26, 2010
UK GDP Growth +0.1%, Economy Stagnates in 4th Quarter 2009 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Office of National Statistics has reported UK GDP fourth quarter 2009 growth of 0.1% that brings Britain's worst recession since the Great Depression to an end that saw GDP shrink by -6.2%. However 0.1% for Q4 is not economic growth, rather it is economic stagnation at an annualised growth rate of just 0.4%.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Illusions of the Age of Keynes / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Douglas_French
A year ago George Melloan wrote in the Wall Street Journal, "We're all Keynesian's Again." You remember last January — change was on its way. We had a new rock-star president and he was going to get us out of the mess that Wall Street had got us into. "Now is the time to jump-start job creation, restart lending, and invest in areas like energy, health care, and education that will grow our economy, even as we make hard choices to bring our deficit down," President Obama told Congress. The new president has a worldview that is "all but in name Keynesian," Carl Horowitz wrote last spring.
Monday, January 25, 2010
China Economy, The Watched Pot… / Economics / China Economy
By: HRA_Advisory
Doubt that growth of the new creditor economies is the real driver for the metals market is waning ever more rapidly. Not everyone will view that as a good thing, but most will now look to China for the moment and to the other big areas of expansion in due course for cues on which direction the sector will take. That, and recognition of very real supply constraints, has been the HRA stance for most of this century. So it’s time for us to do the worrying.
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Monday, January 25, 2010
U.S. Government On Its Way to Bankruptcy Part1 / Economics / US Debt
By: Michael_Pollaro
The U.S. government is quite literally out of control.
I’m not talking about a government which shows an almost total disregard for the U.S. Constitution. I’m not talking about elitist politicians in Congress who think they know what’s best for you, who think it’s their job to take care of you from cradle to grave, whether you like it or not. I’m not even talking about an administration whose policies sometimes appear to have more in common with the command and control societies of Benito Mussolini or Karl Marx than they do with the freedom loving societies of Thomas Jefferson and James Madison.
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Monday, January 25, 2010
Will the Velocity of Money Save the U.S. Economy? / Economics / Money Supply
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Before we get started, let's get the forecast update out of the way. With the release of November business inventories data, we have revised up significantly our real GDP annualized growth rate for Q4:2009 - from last month's projection of 3.5% to 4.5%. Again, it is a sharp slowing in the rate of inventory liquidation that is driving this upward revision. Our projection of the annualized growth rate for final sales in Q4:2009 is 1.6%, just one tick above Q3's reported growth. So, the anticipated surge in top-line fourth-quarter growth is largely an inventory story. Unless, however, final demand begins to grow faster, the inventory story of the last year's fourth quarter will be a one-off event.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Global Economies Debt Crisis, Japan Heading for Currency Crisis / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
A lot has been written in recent months about the exploding U.S. Treasury debt and how the U.S. dollar will surely suffer as a result of it. And, there is no doubt that the debt has exploded and is projected to continue rising at a relatively rapid rate for as far as the eye can see. The relatively rapid projected increase in U.S. Treasury debt 10 years out is primarily due to the large number of baby-boomers becoming Medicare recipients and the projections of rising Medicare costs per baby-boomer.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Are We In An Economic Depression? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
Few professionals are yet willing to admit we have been in a depression for the last year.
You have to understand the position that economists and analysts are in. They work for corporations, insurance, Wall Street, banking and government and if they thought we were in a depression and they publicly announced that all chances for advancement would be lost or they would be squeezed out of the firm or simply fired.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Economic Stagnation, Wars, Pandemics, Welcome to the The New Dark Age / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Elite_E_Services
Modern humans take pride in themselves and their society due to its perceived superiority. It is contrasted most starkly with a period in Europe known as the Dark Ages , a period of little documented innovation, writing, scientific discovery, and general backwardness.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 24, 2010
China Production Capacity Bumps! / Economics / China Economy
By: G_Abraham
Chinese economy soared 10.7% in the fourth quarter, leaving shell shocked analysts in a state of complete disbelief. Chanos even called for a contrarian bet on China. The growth has been very strongly supported by China’s aggressive stimulus spend which have been well observed through Bank lending.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
A "Fly On The Wall" Is Bullish On China, The Mother of All Economic Expansions / Economics / China Economy
By: Mario_Cavolo
Stop listening to the bubble doomsayers and pay attention to the realities of why China’s expansion will continue for many years. My observations as a fly on the wall are a collective reflection of what I and other foreign businesspeople living here for five to ten years have experienced.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Russia's Large Shadow Economy Makes Economic Forecasting Difficult / Economics / Russia
By: Pravda
One-fifth of the Russian economy is shadowed, the Russian Statistics Agency (Rosstat) said. The actual volume of the Russian economy is unknown, which makes economic forecasts for the country difficult. The shadow started growing at the end of 2008 when the economic crisis hit Russia. However, there were no massive moves towards the shadow zone in the Russian economy, experts believe.
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