Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
The Recession Is Over but the Economic Depression Has Just Begun / Economics / Great Depression II
By: LewRockwell
Edward Harrison writes: This is an updated version of a post I wrote about two-and-a-half months ago over at Credit Writedowns. When I wrote it, I had been looking for bullish data points as counterfactuals to my bearish long-term outlook. I found some, but not nearly enough.
Monday, December 21, 2009
Dubai Crisis to Sustained Growth / Economics / Middle East
By: Submissions
Dr. Raju M. Mathew writes: Dubai A Victim - Dubai is a victim of over-projection at the time of boom and underestimation at the time of bust or crisis. Builders, investors, sellers and buyers in Dubai behave irrationally without having a clear cut idea or knowledge about the actual strength and weakness of Dubai. Misinformation and semi-processed data were the basis of all the speculation in Dubai. In Dubai fantasy prevails over reality. The real economy of Dubai is far away from the over projection and under estimation made by the market players as well as its friends and enemies.
Monday, December 21, 2009
U.S. Government Caught in a Lie on Bogus Jobs Data / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Captain_Hook
It’s no secret governments and our ruling elite (the bureaucracy) lie for their own benefit, and this has been increasingly prevalent for years now. Perhaps the most well known statistics in this respect center on the Employment Report, viewed as the central economic release of the month by most observers in that employment is seen as the core of the economy. In knowing this, and not forgetting governments lie to us in just about everything, it should be of no surprise then that John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics has been able to make a business out of reporting on irregularities and discrepancies in official statistics, where even though such fraudulent data was sufficient to spark a noticeable sell-off in commodities and precious metals last Friday via bogus jobs numbers, one knows this is more fiction than reality.
Monday, December 21, 2009
Is the Economic Stimulus Recovery Party Over? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Q1_Publishing
Is the Fed’s free money, economic “reflation” party coming to an end?
There are a lot of well-publicized signs it may be.
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Monday, December 21, 2009
Krugman Falls into the Keynesian National Income Accounting Trap / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
It's one thing to criticize Paul Krugman for his views on Austrian economics, but only a brave soul would have the temerity to question Krugman's discussion of the Keynesian approach to international trade, right? Since Krugman is the world's most famous living Keynesian, and he won the Nobel (Memorial) Prize for his work on trade theory, accusing him of a basic error on this score would be akin to telling Madonna she knows nothing of pop music.
Monday, December 21, 2009
The Credit Crisis is Not Over / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Bob_Chapman
As we look back and this year comes to an end we find two plus years of failure. Even government admits to 1-1/2 years of negative growth - a sorry record after having poured trillions of dollars into the economy. The recent 3rd quarter results supposedly broke that record. If it did it was the result of government stimulus and Fed monetization. If you look back further you will find a stock market that rallied 54% just to reflect the highs of 1999. House prices have decline to 1990s levels as well. Both markets, which were bubbles, next year will fall again. Americans opened their markets to products of Communist China’s slave labor and China became the world’s biggest exporter. Via free trade, globalization, offshoring and outsourcing, transnational conglomerates have stolen America’s destiny and handed it to China. This is what corporatist fascism is all about.
Monday, December 21, 2009
The Fed, A Weapon of Monetary Destruction / Economics / Central Banks
By: LewRockwell
In an extended propagandistic interview in Time magazine, Ben Bernanke is finally asked the crucial question:
Read full article... Read full article...Q: So, I'm a fringe economics type, I'm not personally, but I'm saying a reader picks up TIME Magazine, and they see this and they go, oh, my God, Ben Bernanke, low interest rates caused this whole thing. He's just an extension of that devil man, Alan Greenspan. Low interest rates, this is the whole cause. What's your bullet answer to that?
A: It's hard to give a bullet answer.
Monday, December 21, 2009
U.S. Economy Faces a Very Unhappy New Year 2010 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Gerard_Jackson
Since US business investment peaked in 2008 it has dropped by 20 per cent. Not to worry though. According to Professor Blinder -- an eminent Princeton economist -- the situation will reverse itself because "plants and equipment wear out". This is an incredible statement for professor of economics to make. It assumes an automatic process that replaces capital once it is consumed. But capital replacement requires a human decision based on the availability of savings and favourable expectations about the future.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
2010 The Year of Debt Deleveraging / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
It's All About Deleveraging
Commercial Woes
The Lights Of Myanmar
A Lively 2010 and Buying Stocks
This is the season when pundits feel compelled to make annual forecasts. I will make mine, as I traditionally do, in the first letter of January. But already we have seen a wide range of forecasted outcomes. Are we going to grow at 5-6% or at 1-2% or dip back into recession? Why such disparity? I think part of the reason is a basic disagreement on the nature of the just-lapsed recession. Today we explore that issue. Then I point you to a way to help those who are desperately in need and only wish they had our problems. For those interested, I enclose a picture of my new granddaughter.
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Saturday, December 19, 2009
Revising U.S. Q4 Economic Growth Higher but 2010 Will Still Be Weak / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Largely because of some recently-released economic reports, we have bumped up our real GDP forecast significantly for Q4:2009 and much less so for all of 2010. But we have not changed our fundamental view of the 2010 economic outlook. That view is that the recovery will continue through 2010, but will not be vigorous. Because we expect growth in the first half of 2010 to be slower than it was in the second half of 2009, we would not be surprised to hear the talking heads on CNBC start yapping about a "double dip." They are likely to be wrong, as usual.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
The Greatest Outpouring of Money and Credit from Central Banks and Governments in History / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Bob_Chapman
The past two years have seen the greatest outpouring of money and credit from central banks and governments in history. In most countries interest rates cannot fall much lower being presently under 1% or close to zero. You might call this an attempt at fiat money recovery. As a result of pump priming for the past six months or more investors have returned to the same gambling and risk taking they engaged in before, the losses of which caused the world economy to come to the edge of the financial abyss. All sectors of investment are again affected by a casino mentality.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Bankruptcy and Fiscal Collapse,Global Economic Crisis Tipping Point Forecast for Spring 2010 / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Global_Research
LEAP/E2020 believes that the global systemic crisis will experience a new tipping point from Spring 2010. Indeed, at that time, the public finances of the major Western countries are going to become unmanageable, as it will simultaneously become clear that new support measures for the economy are needed because of the failure of the various stimuli in 2009 (1), and that the size of budget deficits preclude any significant new expenditures.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Academic Economists and Futurologists Make Worthless Forecasts 2010 / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Douglas_French
It's that time of the year. Not only are chestnuts roasting over an open fire and Jack Frost nipping at your nose, but whether you ask for it or not, those in the prediction business are rolling out their prognostications for 2010.
Friday, December 18, 2009
China Facing Economic, Financial and Stock Market Crash Scenario / Economics / Financial Crash
By: Mike_Shedlock
Problems in China continue to mount. Money supply is growing rampantly out of control, property prices are in a bubble, exports are weak, commodity speculation is pervasive, and GDP growth is more of a mirage than real.
Friday, December 18, 2009
The Debt Time Bomb / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Puru_Saxena
BIG PICTURE- “It’s a question of how do you achieve the deleveraging. Do you go through a long period of slow growth, high savings and many legal problems or do you accept higher inflation? It would ameliorate the debt bomb and help us work through the deleveraging process” – Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics at Harvard, Former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund
Thursday, December 17, 2009
German Finance Minister Says "No Alternative But To Borrow" / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Shedlock
Germany, the last of the stalwarts fighting to heed the European Union’s limit of 3 percent budget deficits, is about to throw in the towel.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Austrian Economists WIn, Keynesians and Friedmanians the Big Intellectual Losers / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
Niall Ferguson is an academic hotshot. He is a professor at both Harvard University and the Harvard Business School. This is unique. He is both an economist and an historian. This is rare. He writes very well. He writes widely respected books and very readable articles.
He is also on target about what happened to the American economy in 2009. This is simply astounding.
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Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Rise and Fall in Dubai, An Austrian Economics Perspective / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Fernando_Ulrich
All Is Well - It was January 2008 when I first set foot in Dubai. It was a land full of grandiose, landmark projects. Few cities in the world could match the sheer number of high-rise buildings and skyscrapers being built in the emirate (more than 80 units over 150 meters high are completed or under construction as of this writing).
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
The Inflation Mega-trend and the Illusion of Price Deflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis seeks to get to the heart of the matter to answer the question - Have we experienced Deflation and IF we have are we still in Deflation Now ?
This is the next in a series of articles as part of my unfolding inflationary mega-trend scenario that is an important stepping stone towards the formulation of a inflation forecast for 2010 and beyond. I am to complete the whole scenario and implications of before the end of December which will be published as an ebook that I will make available for FREE. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get the latest analysis in your email box and check my most recent analysis on the probable inflation mega-trend at http://www.walayatstreet.com
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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Deflation or Inflation, Which Lurks Around the Corner? / Economics / Deflation
By: Jeff_Clark
In the short term, a catastrophic deflation is quite possible. But in the long term, extremely high levels of inflation are now inevitable. The situation is very serious. Gold is the best hedge against both of these things. The better part of your financial assets should be in gold, augmented by well-thought-out speculations. Doug Casey, November, 2009.