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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, November 05, 2013

The ECB Ignores The Threat Of Hyperinflation / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Andrew_McKillop

DEFLATION NOW – HYPERINFLATION SOON
What the market expects from Mario Draghi is more of the same QE. The shock fall in annual eurozone inflation to an official rate of just 0.7% in October put the spotlight back on the European Central Bank and its equally-official “target rate” of inflation, of 2%. But Mario Draghi has shown almost no interest in the subject except for one-liners such as: "You can buy more stuff” when inflation is low or zero, his reply to journalists' questions in a June interview on his unsurprising announcement that QE would continue “but didn't seem to be working”.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 05, 2013

Inflation Has Not Cured Iceland’s Economic Problems / Economics / Inflation

By: David_Howden

No two countries’ responses have polarized commentators over the past five years more than the contrasting post-crisis policies in Iceland and Ireland.

In a paper published in Economic Affairs (available here as a PDF) I contrast the policies enacted by Iceland and Ireland, perhaps the two countries most affected by the liquidity freeze of 2008. A common conclusion has been that one country did everything right and the other did everything wrong, however, I take a more pragmatic approach. There are some positive aspects in each case, and other aspects we can do without.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 05, 2013

China World Bank Rankings That Rankle / Economics / China Economy

By: Steve_H_Hanke

The World Bank has been producing its annual “Doing Business” report since 2004 and its 2014 edition ranking Hong Kong second out of 189 economies surveyed, in contrast to mainland China’s score of 96, hardly seems controversial.

Its rankings of 10 factors reflecting the ease with which entrepreneurs and businesses may conduct economic activity in a given economy offer an unbiased way of looking at business.

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Economics

Friday, November 01, 2013

Why U.S. Consumer Confidence is Falling at an Alarming Rate / Economics / US Economy

By: DailyGainsLetter

Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: Consumer spending is very critical to the U.S. economy, as it makes up a significant portion of the gross domestic product (GDP). If consumer spending declines, then U.S. GDP growth becomes very questionable; when it increases, it can provide an idea about where the U.S. economy is heading.

I look at consumer confidence as one of the indicators of consumer spending. The logic behind this is that if consumers are confident, they will most likely spend more, compared to when they are pessimistic.

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Economics

Thursday, October 31, 2013

Is Hyperinflation a Real Threat to the U.S. Economy? / Economics / HyperInflation

By: DailyGainsLetter

Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: One of the questions being asked by investors these days is “where’s the inflation?” After the financial crisis and the fall of Lehman Brothers, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government stepped in to help the financial system. As a result, they promised to print money, and thus quantitative easing was born. Banks received billions of dollars in bailout money.

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Economics

Thursday, October 31, 2013

A Long-Term Look at Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: The October 2013 Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released today puts the September year-over-year inflation rate at 1.18%, less than third the 3.90% average since the end of the Second World War and 51% lower than its 10-year moving average.

For a comparison of headline inflation with core inflation, which is based on the CPI excluding food and energy, see this monthly feature.

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Economics

Thursday, October 31, 2013

Documenting the U.S. Federal Reserves Monetary and Economic Failures / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

In their third-quarter Review and Outlook – today's Outside the Box – Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington get right down to telling us why the Federal Reserve's Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) program is doomed to failure. (This is a thesis that is dear to my heart, since coauthor Jonathan Tepper and I explore it at length in our just-released book, Code Red.) The Fed scrambled hard and came up with some extraordinary measures to keep the global economy more or less in one piece as the Great Recession unfolded. They had to act fast, and they did; but five years down the road, with sovereign debt balloons swollen near to bursting worldwide, with markets in advanced and emerging nations alike swooning at the mere mention of the word tapering, and with the threat of a major global currency war staring us right in the face, the Fed may have just about r eached the end of its rope. But let's let Lacy and Van explain:

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Economics

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Bernanke vs. Yellen: A Spooky Economic Outlook? / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Axel_Merk

Fed Chair nominee Janet Yellen will take over where her predecessor Ben Bernanke leaves off. Not just operationally, but also philosophically. To understand where the Fed and the U.S. dollar may be heading, we take a closer look at where Bernanke and Yellen are coming from.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

New Retirement Trend: One-Third of Americans Need to Work Until 80 / Economics / Pensions & Retirement

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: According to the just-released annual Wells Fargo & Company Middle Class Retirement Study, about 60% of middle-class Americans say that getting monthly bills paid is their top concern. This number stood at 52% in the 2012 study. (Source: Wells Fargo & Company, October 23, 2013.)

But there are more depressing results of the survey…

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Economics

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Four Years of Economic Recovery, So Why Don’t You Feel Richer? / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Clif_Droke

Statistics can sometimes, as we all know, be very misleading. Take the unemployment report for example. If you examine the numbers out of context, you'd be forced to conclude that workforce participation has steadily increased over the last four years. A behind-the-scenes look at those numbers, however, reveals a startling discovery: most of those gains have occurred because job seekers have simply given up looking for a job.

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Economics

Monday, October 28, 2013

Economies are Not Destroyed in a Day / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Nicolás Cachanosky writes: Earlier this month, Argentina's leading conservative paper, La Nación published an unsigned editorial comparing the economies of Argentina and Venezuela. The editorial concluded that as economic freedom declines in Argentina, and as Argentina adopts more of what Chavez called “twenty-first century socialism,” it is becoming increasingly similar to Venezuela. Is this true? Will Argentina suffer the same fate as Venezuela where poverty is increasing and toilet paper can be a luxury?

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Economics

Sunday, October 27, 2013

How to Protect Your Money When the U.S. Debt Bill Comes Due / Economics / US Debt

By: EWI

Dear Reader

Ever heard of a wedding crasher? You know -- that distant “cousin” who shows up uninvited, hangs around the open bar all night, chugs down double-everythings and falls on his butt on the dance floor -- all before mysteriously vanishing and leaving his night of indulgence on the father of the bride’s tab.

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Economics

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Peak Prosperity - The Fed Can Only Fail. And We'll All Lose / Economics / US Debt

By: Dr_Martenson

The basic predicament we are in is that the current crop of leaders in the halls of monetary and political power does not appear to understand the dimensions of our situation.

The mind-boggling part about all this is that it's not really all that hard to grasp.

Our collective predicament is simply this: Nothing can grow forever.

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Economics

Friday, October 25, 2013

Deflationary Forces Stymie the Fed's Economic Rescue Efforts / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

See a stunning chart of the Federal Reserve's assets

The Federal Reserve's efforts to rescue the economy have been historically aggressive, starting with the initial round of quantitative easing in 2008 and continuing through 2013.

The central bank's assets have skyrocketed due to the Fed's bond purchases, which you can see clearly in this eye-opening report that Robert Prechter presented to the Market Technicians Association and his Elliott Wave Theorist subscribers.

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Economics

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Structural Demographic Trends in U.S. Employment Data / Economics / Employment

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). The result is the participation rate expressed as a percent.

The first chart below splits up the LFPR data since 1948 in two ways: by age and by gender. For the former, I chose the 25-64 age cohorts to represent what we traditionally think of as the “productive” (pre-retirement age) work force. The BLS has data for ages 16 and over, but across this 64-year time frame college attendance has surged dramatically. So I opted for age 25 as the lower boundary to reduce the college-years skew.

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Economics

Thursday, October 24, 2013

What’s Really Behind China’s Economic Growth and Why It Won’t Last / Economics / China Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: When I read some of the headlines by other news organizations, sometimes I can’t help but chuckle at their oversimplification. Other media outlets take a kernel of truth, and ignore the rest of the picture, only to blow that tiny piece of truth out of proportion.

As an example, there was a recent release by the National Bureau of Statistics of China that reported the Chinese economy grew 7.8% year-over-year for the three months of July to September. (Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, October 18, 2013.)

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Economics

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Lackluster U.S. Non Farm Payrolls Employment Report Leaves Fed on Hold / Economics / Employment

By: Victoria_Marklew

The sluggish hiring pace visible in the September employment report justifies the Federal Reserve’s decision to postpone tapering of asset purchases. Data for the September report were gathered prior to the government shutdown, but October employment numbers will contain distortions arising from not collecting data during the typical survey period, rendering comparisons difficult.

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Economics

Saturday, October 19, 2013

To Save Europe, Free the Markets / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Frank Hollenbeck writes: The current European economic strategy is to kick the can down the road. Debt levels in almost all European countries continue to rise and growth seems to be a long forgotten memory. The day of reckoning is around the corner, as Rudi Dornbush once warned, “[t]he crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought, and that’s sort of exactly the Mexican story. It took forever and then it took a night.”

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Economics

Sunday, October 06, 2013

U.S. Economy Heading For Another Economic Slump / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Mike_Whitney

“Slumping asset prices show a recession is probably on its way. … Stocks tend to fall more frequently and further than property values, so they are better recession-predictors.” - IMF research paper by economists John C. Bluedorn, Joerg Decressin and Marco E. Terrones.

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Economics

Monday, September 30, 2013

Warning - Deflation Will Take the Most by Surprise / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Google searches offer an insightful glimpse into economic expectations

The last thing on the minds of most people is deflation. It's easy enough to determine that with a quick quiz -- and that quiz is found in the just-published Elliott Wave Theorist.

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