Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, November 27, 2014
The Price Of Oil Exposes The True State Of The Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
We should be glad the price of oil has fallen the way it has (losing another 6% today as I write this). Not because it makes the gas in our cars a bit cheaper, that’s nothing compared to the other service the price slump provides. That is, it allows us to see how the economy is really doing, without the multilayered veil of propaganda, spin, fixed data and bailouts and handouts for the banking system.
It shows us the huge extent to which consumer spending is falling, how much poorer people have become as stock markets set records. It also shows us how desperate producing nations have become, who have seen a third of their often principal source of revenue fall away in a few months’ time. Nigeria was first in line to devalue its currency, others will follow suit.
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Clash of Generations - Why Millennials Still Live at Home; Not Jobs, Student Debt, or Housing / Economics / Demographics
By: Mike_Shedlock
A New York Fed research paper wonders What's Keeping Millennials at Home? Is it Debt, Jobs, or Housing?
The paper says "it's a mystery" why the housing recovery did not have a bigger impact on millennials living at home.
The research paper, written by Zachary Bleemer, Meta Brown, Donghoon Lee, and Wilbert van der Klaauw notes correlations to debt, jobs and housing.
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Monday, November 24, 2014
Where Is China Economy On The Map Exactly? / Economics / China Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
A lot of people these days vent their opinions on what’s happening with the Chinese economy, and the opinions are so all over the place they could hardly be more different. Which is interesting, to say the least. Apparently it’s still very hard to understand what does happen ‘over there’.
And I don’t at all mean to suggest that I would know better than Morgan Stanley’s former Asia go-to-man Stephen Roach, or hedge funder Hugh Hendry, or Bob Davis, who just spent 4 years in the country for the Wall Street Journal, or Gwynn Guilford at Quartz, or local Reuters correspondents. It’s just that between them, they disagree so vastly you’d think they’re playing a game with your mind.
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Monday, November 24, 2014
Most of The World Economies Panic - Is The US Next? / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Rubino
It's been quite a month.
In late October Japan, despite a year of fairly aggressive quantitative easing, dropped back into recession and concluded that even easier money was the cure for its ills. It announced a debt monetization plan of almost science-fictional proportions in which the amount of new yen to be created, as a percentage of GDP, will be equivalent to $3 trillion a year in the US. See Reactions to BoJ's Kuroda's Stunning, Doubled-Down QE 'Experiment'
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Saturday, November 22, 2014
Malaysia's Subsidy and Budget Deficit Conundrum / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Sam_Chee_Kong
In reality, running a Government is similar to running a company in many respects. Both have revenues and spending to adhere to. When a Government runs a deficit then it needs to sell Treasury bills, notes and bonds to raise funds. Similarly when a company is short of cash, it can raise funds by selling securities. In a way it can be said that the total debt incurred by the Government is the total outstanding government securities. Thus the total or national debt at any point of time is the sum of all prior deficits. Hence, when a Government runs a deficit, the national debt will be increased by the amount of the deficit.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
Euro-Zone Tooth Fairy Economics, Spain Needs to leave the Euro / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Shedlock
Michael Pettis has a very interesting article on the Spanish news site ABC regarding a possible default of Spain and the eventual breakup of the eurozone.
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
European Economies in Perpetual State of Shock, What's Scarier Than Deflation? / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
As early as 2011, our analysis warned that Europe's deflation was coming -- here's why
For the economies of Europe, the past few months have felt like one long ice-bucket challenge that never ends: A perpetual state of shock induced by the bone-chilling fact that deflation
"...has become a reality in many European countries." (Oct. 24, New York Times)
At last count, eight European nations are now in outright deflation, including:
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Wednesday, November 19, 2014
The Abenomics Japan Economic Death Spiral / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
As Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe has turned his country into a petri dish of Keynesian ideas, the trajectory of Japan's economy has much to teach us about the wisdom of those policies. And although the warning sirens are blasting at the highest volumes imaginable, few economists can hear the alarm. (A longer version of this article can be found in Euro Pacific Capital's Global Investor Newsletter.)
Data out this week shows the Japanese economy returning to recession by contracting for the second straight quarter (and three out of the last four quarters). The conclusion reached by the Keynesian apologists is that the benefits of inflation caused by the monetary stimulus have been counteracted, temporarily, by the negative effects of inflation caused by taxes. This tortured logic should be a clear indication that the policies were flawed from the start.
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Wednesday, November 19, 2014
The U.S. Economy’s Ebb and Flow / Economics / US Economy
By: Harry_Dent
Paul Krugman recently wrote an op-ed in The New York Times about the exit of Bill Gross from Pimco and why that happened because he didn’t understand that we’re in a deflationary or depression-like economy. He kept betting on interest rates rising on a lag from money printing or quantitative easing (QE) but that never happened and his massive bond fund suffered.
I don’t agree with Paul Krugman about too many things, but I do agree with one of his major points in that article.
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Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Japan Is Dying And We Still Don’t Get It?! / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
What is it with us? Don’t we WANT to understand? Japan announced on Monday that its economy is in hopeless trouble and back in recession (as if it was ever out). And what do we see? ‘Experts’ and reporters clamoring for more stimulus. But if Japan has shown us anything over the past years, and you’re free to pick any number between 2 and 20 years, it’s that the QE-based kind of stimulus doesn’t work. Not for the real economy, that is.
Monday, November 17, 2014
Cameron Says Second Global Economic Crash is Loomin, Japan in Recession / Economics / Recession 2015
By: GoldCore
David Cameron warned last night that the global economy risked another crash and said in an article that 'red warning lights' were 'flashing on the dashboard of the global economy' and the eurozone was 'teetering on the brink' of another recession.
The warning came at the same time that the world’s largest economy, Japan, fell into another recession. Japan shrank by an annualised 1.6% in the third quarter. This followed a huge 7.3% contraction in the previous quarter caused by a rise in the national sales tax and ran counter to economists forecasts for a 2.1 percent rebound.
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Monday, November 17, 2014
Japan's Last Stand - Inflate or Die / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Michael_Pento
There is a popular American military term called a "last stand", which is meant to describe a situation where a combat force attempts to hold a defensive position in the face of overwhelming odds. The defensive force usually sustains very heavy casualties or is completely destroyed, as happened at Custer's Last Stand. General Custer, misreading his enemy's size and ability, fought his final and fatal battle of Little Bighorn; leading to complete annihilation of both himself and his troops.
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Friday, November 14, 2014
Hyperinflation in the U.S.? / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
“WAR is a racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives.”
-General Smedley Butler, USMC
“Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws.”
-Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744-1812), founder of the House of Rothschild
Friday, November 14, 2014
Debt, Propaganda And Now Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Looks I have to return to the deflation topic. I’m a bit hesitant about it, because the discussion always gets distorted by varying definitions and a whole bunch of semi-religious issues. The Automatic Earth has for many years said that an immense bout of deflation is inevitable because of global debt levels, and it’s all only gotten a lot worse since we first said that. Our governments and central banks have ‘fought’ deflation with more debt, and that was always the stupidest idea in human history. Or at least, most of us were stupid for believing it would work, or was even intended to.
Friday, November 14, 2014
Inflation Chronicles - Art Prices So High, “The Crowd Forgot To Clap” / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Rubino
Depending on which expert is talking, the world is either falling into a deflationary abyss or launching an inflationary moonshot. What’s truly weird and fascinating is that they’re both right. The mountain of debt taken on in the past few decades exerts a profoundly deflationary pull on the economies of Europe and Japan, and to a lesser extent the US. At the same time the torrent of currency flowing out of the world’s central banks is swelling the accounts of the super-rich who are converting it into real assets as fast as they can, causing near-hyperinflation in some favored markets. Hence the spectacle of Paul Krugman (and most Fed governors) complaining about low inflation and warning of a deflationary death spiral, while things like this are happening:
Thursday, November 13, 2014
The Most Destructive Generation Ever / Economics / Demographics
By: Raul_I_Meijer
I’m afraid I got to delve into a particularly unpopular topics once again today. Blame it on Bloomberg. They ran a piece on the Silent Generation (people born between 1928-’45), which finds it self in a ‘sweet spot’ but refuses to spend enough. A funny problem: the by far richest group in the US doesn’t spend, while those who would like to spend, for instance to build a home and a family, are too poor to do it.
I know I’m not going to make myself popular with what I have to say about this, but then I’m not running for US President, or Miss Universe for that matter. Besides, people should be careful about taking things personal that are not.
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Thursday, November 13, 2014
What Are The Odds in 2015: Inflation or Deflation? / Economics / Deflation
By: Submissions
TCE writes: Like other Central Banks, the U. S. Federal Reserve has “printed” copious quantities of money. Despite better GDP numbers and positive media commentary, much of the American economy continues to be lethargic. The Eurozone appears increasingly vulnerable to recession. Financial and geopolitical risks could derail economic growth. What are the long term trends that will shape the outcome?
Wednesday, November 12, 2014
The Economics of Tipping / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Ken Zahringer writes: My dinner companion sounded indignant. “It’s a shame we have to tip the waitress,” she said. “The restaurant owner ought to pay the staff enough to live on.”
I imagine that is a common attitude among those steeped in our current cultural climate of envy and dislike of economic success — the anti-capitalist mentality, as Mises put it. It’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking that we tip waiters out of sympathy, due to their misfortune of having to work in an industry full of greedy restaurant owners who won’t pay a “living wage.” In fact, tipping is an elegant market solution to a particular set of circumstances, often present in service jobs, that makes determining an appropriate wage extremely problematic. The practice of tipping used to be more common, applying to many more service positions than at present, when it is largely restricted to waitstaff and skycaps. Part of the reason for its partial demise is just the wandering course of economic change, but many jobs that used to be paid primarily by tips came to be covered by minimum wage legislation and simply disappeared.
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Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Scary Bank of Japan Goes All In Again - Abenomics 2.0 / Economics / Japan Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Grant Williams writes: Last week, appropriately enough on Halloween, the Bank of Japan did something truly scary.
As shocks go, this one — though it had been fairly well-telegraphed to the markets that something wicked this way might be coming — was in a league of its own.
I’m sure that by now you’re well aware of what Kuroda-san (the Governor of the Bank of Japan) announced to the world; but in case you’re not, here’s a little recap:
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Tuesday, November 11, 2014
U.S. Jobs - Why Janet Yellen Needs Her Own Magic Show / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Don_Miller
What do Siegfried and Roy have in common with Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen?
Shortly after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released unemployment data last month showing that joblessness had dropped below 6% for the first time since the 2008 crash, the Federal Reserve announced it would stop government bond purchases; Quantitative Easing is history.
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