Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, February 08, 2010
US Bankruptcies Rise 7% Year over Year / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Trader_Mark
Despite enjoying 2 full quarters of 'recovery', and coming off a hefty 5.7% GDP quarter - the reality is not so happy down on Main Street (business). Keep in mind the year over year comparisons are versus the period of time (fall 2008/winter 2008-2009) when the recession was at its deepest, so to see continued "growth" in this area is certainly not a green shoot. However, I am sure it can be explained away as all bad news is... let me think of an appropriate head in sand response. Ah yes... let's throw this on the pile of "it's a lagging indicator". Via Reuters:
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Monday, February 08, 2010
2010 Global Economic Growth to Disappoint / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Before we get to this week's Outside the Box, a quick note about my writing on Greece in last Saturday's letter. I made the point that if Greece defaults it does not necessarily mean they have to leave the EU, any more than if Illinois defaulted they would have to leave the United States. Greece could still use the euro and life could go on. EXCEPT. The markets would no longer lend the Greek government money at anything close to a livable rate. Greece would be forced to balance its budget. Since they are part of the euro, devaluing the currency is not an option. The results of controlling their fiscal deficit would not initially be pretty and would almost insure a serious prolonged recession or depression in the Greek area, with fall out in the region. It would be a sad decade for Greece. But in the long run, it is a better option than default.
Monday, February 08, 2010
U.S. 11% Unemployment Coming by May? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Over the weekend I received an email from Irishscot2, a poster on MarketWatch, regarding seasonal adjustments to the unemployment rate.
Monday, February 08, 2010
Austrian Business Cycle Theory and Global Financial Crisis / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Ersan Bocutoglu and Aykut Ekinci write: Austrian business-cycle theory (ABCT) is capable of explaining the origin of the current global crisis. Therefore, ABCT provides Austrian economists with an advantageous position, compared to the other schools, in foreseeing this crisis. See, for example, Thornton (June 2004), Karlsson (November 2004), Shostak (August 2005).
Sunday, February 07, 2010
U.S. Economy To Be Hit By Second Wave of Mortgage Defaults / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Bob_Chapman
As we have been forecasting for the last two years, the second wave of mortgage defaults and foreclosures will hit the economy this year. Not only will we have failure in prime loans and option-arm loans, but we are faced with a new crop of subprime and ALT-A loans put into motion by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae and FHA. In addition, we find it of great interest that the FHA is changing the rules to purchase homes. That, of course, means less homes will be purchased.
Sunday, February 07, 2010
Will China’s Massive Currency Reserves Save Them From Economic Depression? / Economics / China Economy
By: Mac_Slavo
As the United States and Europe deal with economic contraction resulting from excessive credit expansion that many believe has lead to another Great Depression, China’s future remains hazy. Some argue that China has replaced the US as the global engine of growth because of increased internal consumption, export capacity and massive reserves. And for these reasons, China will avoid the same fate as the US and Europe.
Sunday, February 07, 2010
Sovereign Debt Fears Signal New Stage of Global Financial Crisis / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Global_Research
Barry Grey writes: Stock markets in Europe and Asia fell sharply Friday in the second day of a near-panic selloff fueled by fears that the debt crisis facing weaker European economies will throw the world economy into a “double-dip” recession.
Commodity prices—oil and gold, in particular—also fell sharply.
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Saturday, February 06, 2010
Marc Faber Says High Inflation, Depression Then War / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Submissions
Marc Faber, author of Gloom Boom and Doom Report says many Western governments would eventually follow the US 'inevitable' debt default suit including Portugal, Ireland, Greece. Marc Faber doesnt give America much time before it goes bust and he says he will never sell his gold as governments inflate as a consquence of liabilities.
Saturday, February 06, 2010
Solution To Greece Sovereign Debt Default Scare, Easy…Kick Them Out Of The E.U. / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Andrew_Butter
On Friday European monetary affairs commissioner Joaquin Almunia declared;
“There is no bailout and no "plan-B" for the Greek economy because there is no risk it will default on its debt”.
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Friday, February 05, 2010
Inflation Not the Cause of Every Price Increase / Economics / Deflation
By: Chris_Galakoutis
Costs continue to go up for the goods and services that Americans consume on a daily basis. While today we can all buy stocks, real estate and fill up our gas tanks with fewer dollars than in 2007 and early 2008, the costs of other items continue to go up. For instance, I just received a bill from the CT Secretary of State for the fee I pay every year for my LLC. The fee has doubled. Inflationists point to this type of thing and argue that this is a sign of inflation.
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Friday, February 05, 2010
No Easy Way Out From America's Debt Crisis / Economics / US Debt
By: Mike_Larson
I just got back from my first lengthy vacation in years — to New York, London, and Paris. I enjoyed many fine meals and fun nights out with friends. I got to see everything from the Rosetta Stone and St. Paul’s Cathedral to the Mona Lisa and the Eiffel Tower.
The only real downside? The lousy January weather!
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Thursday, February 04, 2010
U.S. Weekly Unemployment Claims Jump, Hate Mail From Keynesian / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are investigating the Unemployment Weekly Claims Report from the department of labor. Weekly unemployment claims are up yet again, as is the 4-week moving average of claims.
Thursday, February 04, 2010
America Must Innovate or Die as China Scientists Lead the World in Research Growth / Economics / Technology
By: Gordon_T_Long
US innovation is plummeting faster than our Financial Markets did during the 2008 financial crisis!
The future of America is presently in peril, not just because of the “banksters’’ shadowy ways, but because of a sputtering Innovation Engine that has had the fuel “choked off’. It has now gone “critical” and can no longer be left to only the carping of the academic community.
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Thursday, February 04, 2010
Davos, Jobs are Families / Economics / Employment
By: Pravda
Let us spell a message to the Davos World Economic Forum before it gathers next week: Jobs are families. As unemployment rates reach record levels there can be no doubt that the current monetarist-market-oriented economic model contains vectors which create endemic instability, engender extreme instability in the labour market and send families lurching from one crisis to the next in a boom-and-bust climate. Perhaps the economists at Davos can do what they are paid for: produce an alternative that works.
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Thursday, February 04, 2010
Army of Unemployed Russians Grows Steadily / Economics / Russia
By: Pravda
About 500,000 Russian citizens may lose their jobs in the nearest future, Vice Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov believes. The number of Russians on an enforced leave will not diminish either, he said.
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Thursday, February 04, 2010
Greece Crisis Shows Global Debt Bomb Could Explode During 2010 / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: The big story in the international markets so far in the New Year has been the increasing shakiness of a number of countries' government bonds, with Greece right now being the most troubled of all.
Since U.S. investors tend to avoid foreign government bonds, many will dismiss this as an irrelevant development.
Thursday, February 04, 2010
Does Anyone in Washington Know What Needs to Be Done to Create Jobs? / Economics / Employment
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
This is a question that I often get as I speak to groups around the country. Based on the ADP monthly survey of employment, small- and medium-sized firms (less than 500 employees each) are the fount (or black hole, as of recent months) of jobs in the U.S. economy (see Chart 1).So, rather than asking Washington career politicians what it takes to create more jobs, why don't we poll small businessmen and businesswomen?
Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Retail Sales Discount Offers Are the Language of Action, Not a Trick / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Predrag Rajsic writes: In the last several months, retail stores have sales on all sorts of products. Discounts go as far as 90% off. Some of these widespread price reductions can be attributed to the holiday season behind us, while most of them, it seems, were triggered by the recent fall in consumer demand due to the macroeconomic downturn.
Wednesday, February 03, 2010
U.S. on the Brink of Bankruptcy? / Economics / US Debt
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: U.S. President Barack Obama's budget for 2011, presented on Monday, shows a deficit of $1.3 trillion for the fiscal year that ends that September. That shortfall is actually $287 billion more than the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) had projected less than a week earlier, when it had released a budget forecast of its own for that same fiscal year.
Wednesday, February 03, 2010
Beyond Economic Stimulus, Fiscal Policy After the Great Recession / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Global_Research
Andrew Jackson writes: As the communiqué from the Pittsburgh G20 summit put it, “it worked”. Unprecedented macro-economic stimulus in the form of ultra low interest rates and large government deficits has pulled the global economy back from the abyss, at least for now. But what comes next? Conventional economic wisdom is setting the stage for deep and damaging cuts to public expenditures if labour and the progressive left do not win the argument for public investment led growth and increased fiscal capacity.