Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Did The 'Trump Tantrum' Just Trigger The Next US Recession? / Economics / Recession 2017
By: Gordon_T_Long
Trump May Have "Pricked" The Global Bond Bubble
Trump called during the campaign for a $1 trillion infrastructure package, $5 trillion in tax cuts, increases in military spending and the repeal ObamaCare, which could cost more than $350 billion over 10 years. At the same time, the president-elect has promised “not to touch” Social Security or make cuts to Medicare. The moment Trump was elected the markets immediately reacted to this potential massive fiscal injection. Bond values plummeted as yields spiked.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
Trump Can Fix US Economy by Embracing Biotech / Economics / BioTech
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK COX : The presidential campaign made one fact very clear. Most of the media and public aren't focused on economic growth.
Growth powers and funds everything else. Just take a look at the enormous federal deficit and you’ll see that economic health keeps taking a back seat to short-term goals.
Yes, John Maynard Keynes made a case for using debt to stimulate the economy. But he never said anything about permanent deficits. And that is our current practice. The result is that taxpayers’ options will be curtailed in the future.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
Obstacles to Trump’s Economic Growth Plans / Economics / US Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
For the second time in a few weeks (see ‘End of Growth’ Sparks Wide Discontent), former British diplomat Alastair Crooke quotes me extensively, and I return the favor. Crooke here attempts to list -some of- the difficulties Donald Trump will face in executing the -economic- measures he promised to take in his campaign. Crooke argues that, as I’ve indicated repeatedly, for instance in America is The Poisoned Chalice, the financial crisis that never ended may be one of his biggest problems.
Here, again, is Alastair Crooke:
We are plainly at a pivotal moment. President-Elect Trump wants to make dramatic changes in his nation’s course. His battle cry of wanting to make “America Great Again” evokes – and almost certainly is intended to evoke – the epic American economic expansions of the Nineteenth and Twentieth centuries.
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Sunday, November 20, 2016
The Real Barrier To Trump's Economic Policies! / Economics / US Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
Gordon T Long, Co-Founder of MATASII.com sat down with Mish Shedlock to get his views on what the new Trump Administration and its "Trumponomics" policies will mean to the markets and investment strategies in 2017.
Here are a few of Mish's current views on some of the Key Economic Platforms of "Trumponomics":
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Wednesday, November 16, 2016
How Obamacare Could Have Saved the Economy / Economics / Healthcare Sector
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : Some people say Obamacare was designed to fail, a clever attempt to pull us toward socialized healthcare.
I don’t know if that’s true. But it’s a fact that Obamacare is failing.
The so-called reform never worked very well because it didn’t reduce the underlying cost pressures. Now it’s falling apart.
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Wednesday, November 16, 2016
What Exactly is True Capitalism? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Holmes
We’ll begin with this truth: We cannot snap our fingers and have “wants” immediately transformed into “satisfactions.” We are born having to struggle to survive. We must take atomic elements, which are provided gratuitously by nature, and transform them into the goods and services that give us satisfaction. Everything used to build an Italian sports car is provided by nature, but not in a form that can be used directly without modifications. The raw material must be combined by our labor and know-how. Wants require efforts to obtain satisfaction. Man is constantly striving to reduce these painful efforts that consume so much of his energy and time. Unfortunately, the history of mankind has been one of pillage: A plan for less efforts. It is far easier to steal a sack of corn than take the effort to grow it.
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
U.S. Economy at Major Long-Term Pivotal Point / Economics / US Economy
By: Clif_Droke
As the dust settles from the U.S. presidential election, multitudes of political analysts and news commentators continue to scratch their heads wondering “what went wrong?” The collective question they're asking of course is in reference to the candidate who was elected President.
This is the wrong question to ask, however. What they should be asking is what led millions of (mostly) middle class voters to rise up against the favored establishment candidate and voice their disapproval with the incumbent party. As is normally the case with anything relating to politics, the answer is to be found in the realm of economics.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2016
Bill Gross: Trump Election Victory Won't Lead to More Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Bill Gross of Janus Capital was interviewed by Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Markets this morning.
Gross discussed market reaction to the U.S. presidential election, telling Schatzker that Trump's victory won't lead to more economic growth.
SCHATZKER: "Well, let's consider those things for a moment. Let's consider demographics. Let's consider some of the structural obstacles. Can you envision a scenario, all of those things considered, in which the economy grows four percent a year, and in which we add 25 million jobs over who knows what period?"
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Tuesday, November 08, 2016
The Rise Of Eurasian Silk Road / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
Premier Li’s Eurasian tour heralds the new future of Eurasia that will be based on regional economic integration.Last Wednesday, Premier Li Keqiang began a week-long trip in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia and Latvia seeking to promote China’s relations with the four countries, and boosting regional development and cooperation.
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Tuesday, November 08, 2016
US Economy Q3 GDP Was Hogwash / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
Since most everyone is focused on the upcoming U.S. elections, many investors may not have had the time to peel back the onion on the third quarter U.S. GDP report. So, if you just glanced at the headline GDP number of a 2.9% annualized growth rate, you may have concluded that the U.S. economy was finally on its way to sustainable growth.
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Wednesday, November 02, 2016
The Economic Twilight Zone in Japan / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
It wasn’t supposed to be like this.As I learned in my MBA studies in the early 1990s, the sun was setting on the U.S. as a global economic power, just as it had on the British Empire 80 years before. The Land of the Rising Sun was ascending, and our job was to manage the decline of the U.S. as effectively as possible. There was even a book from famed McKinsey consultant Kenichi Ohmae on the subject, Triad Power.
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Wednesday, November 02, 2016
India, China Face Trade Choices / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the coming years, China and India must decide whether their bilateral ties will be based on economic cooperation, political facilitation and strategic trust - or economic walls, political barriers and strategic containment.
In early October, militants attacked an Indian army camp in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing a soldier. In this contested region, the two nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, have occasionally been close to devastating military friction. In the mid-October BRICS Summit, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi called Pakistan "mother-ship of terrorism."
Tuesday, November 01, 2016
Make America Economically Great Again / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
I recall writing (back in the 1990s and early 2000s) that one of the great things about the US was our economic mobility. By that, I mean the ability of people to shift on the economic spectrum—to move from being a low-income family to being a high-income family, for example.
But recent studies tell us this is no longer the case.
It means the America I grew up in is changing. And that cuts right into my emotional comfort zone. I guess this should not surprise me because (a) the US is always changing, and (b) the evidence clearly shows the cultural shifts and economic woes of the younger generation.
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Saturday, October 29, 2016
BEA Estimates US 3rd Quarter 2016 GDP Growth to be 2.91% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their first ("preliminary") estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the growth rate was +2.91%, up +1.49% from the prior quarter.
Most of the reported improvement in the headline number came from a +1.77% quarter-to-quarter gain in inventories, a +0.96% rise in exports, and a +0.39% uptick in governmental spending. Offsetting those improvements was an aggregate -1.41% reduction in the headline number from softening consumer spending on both goods and services. Fixed investments remained in contraction at a -0.09% annualized rate.
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Globalization Faces Challenges / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Browne
For much of the second half of the 20th Century, and even into the new millennium, "Globalization" was the dominant theme used to describe the drift of the world economy. It was widely considered both natural and inevitable that the world economy would continue to integrate and that national boundaries would become less constraining to commerce and culture. And with the exception of the eternal "anti-globalization" protesters, who robotically appeared at large gatherings of world leaders, the benefits of globalization were widely lauded by politicians, corporate leaders and rank and file citizens alike. But a casual glance at the world headlines of 2016 suggests that the belief in globalization has crested, and is now in retreat. What are the consequences of this change?
Tuesday, October 25, 2016
Government Stimulus is an Oxymoron, Debt to GDP / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2016
By: Michael_Pento
The accumulation of Debt, at its very essence, is simply borrowing consumption from the future. And this is true on any level of debt, be it either public or private. Just as savings is deferred consumption, the exact opposite is true for debt. Therefore, it can only be beneficial in the long-term if it leads to an expansion of productivity in the present. If the funds borrowed do not improve output per unit of labor it is much more difficult to pay back that debt and any perceived benefit ends up being nothing more than an ephemeral illusion.
Saturday, October 22, 2016
Inflation About To Explode Higher / Economics / Inflation
By: James_Quinn
“Those who are capable of tyranny are capable of perjury to sustain it.” ― Lysander Spooner
We all know the BLS artificially suppresses the CPI through bullshit substitution adjustments, quality adjustments, and various other incomprehensible hedonic adjustments made by government apparatchiks at the behest of their politician bosses. Some obscure theoretical academic calculation called owners equivalent rent accounts for almost a quarter of the CPI weighting.
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Saturday, October 22, 2016
Why The Global Economy Will Disintegrate Rapidly Back to Olduvai Gorge / Economics / Economic Collapse
By: Raul_I_Meijer
We have written little on the topic of energy lately, other than related to oil prices going up and down, empty OPEC ‘promises’ to cut oil production, and the incredible debt load threatening to crush US -and Canadian- unconventional oil and gas. It’s a logical outcome of focusing more on finance than energy, because we feel the former has a shorter timeline than the latter. Something that harks back to our Oil Drum days.
But that doesn’t mean that the idea and/or principle of peak oil has disappeared, or that we have completely forgotten it. It has just been snowed under by the financial crisis (and by unconventinal oil and gas). And while we continue to find that the financial world will dump us into a bigger crisis sooner than energy will, it’s useful to look at oil et al from time to time.
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Friday, October 21, 2016
Central Bankers Can't Stop The Death Blow Of The Post US Election Recession / Economics / Recession 2017
By: Gordon_T_Long
The central bankers are capable of achieving many extraordinary results but not all economic and financial problems can be solved by central bankers. Central Bankers for example have the power to solve liquidity issues, but it is impossible for them to solve solvency issues. Central Bankers through Financial Repression can transfer risk , however they can't remove it from the system. Additionally, Central bankers may be able to delay a recession temporarily, but they can't prevent the business cycle from running its natural course.
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Demographics Are the Biggest Drag on the US Economy / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
BY SAMUEL RINES: The US economy has slowed, and the reasons for the sluggish growth cause heated arguments among market participants and economists alike. There are two outspoken camps: “the good ole days are coming back” and “this is normal.” The camps have little in common, except yelling at one another.