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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, January 01, 2016

China's Security of Supply / Economics / China Economy

By: Richard_Mills

Consider:

  • There is a slowing of production and dwindling of reserves at many of the world's largest mines.
  • All the oz's or pounds are never recovered from a mine - they simply becomes too expensive to recover.
  • The pace of new elephant-sized discoveries has decreased in the mining industry.
  • Discoveries are smaller and in less accessible regions.
  • Mineralogy & metallurgy is more complicated making extraction of metals from the mined ore increasingly more complex and expensive.
  • Mining is cyclical which makes mining companies reluctant to spend on exploration and development.
  • A looming skills shortage
  • There is no substitute for many metals except other metals - plastic piping is one exception.
  • Metal markets are small so speculation is a larger factor.
  • There hasn't been a new technology shift in mining for decades - heap leach and open pit mining come to mind but they are both decades old innovation.
  • Country risk - resource extraction companies, because the number of discoveries was falling and existing deposits were being quickly depleted, have had to diversify away from the traditional geo-politically safe producing countries. The move out of these "safe haven" countries has exposed investors to a lot of additional risk.
  • Lack of recognition for population growth, growing middle class w/disposable incomes and urbanization as on-going demand growth factors.
  • Climate change.
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Economics

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Why Austrian Investing Is Important In The Era Of State Imposed Fiat Money / Economics / Fiat Currency

By: GoldSilverWorlds

We are living in extreme times. When it comes to investing, the economy and markets, the extreme monetary policies of central banks all over the world should be top of mind of every investor.

To make our point, we refer to the 3 following charts that readers know by now … But it always helps to put things in perpsective. Our focus here is on the time period as of 1971 which will likely go in history books as the era of the “Great Monetary Experiment” (or something alike).

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Economics

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Yet Another Reason To Invest in Vietnam and Pakistan / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: Submissions

Dylan Waller writes: Vietnam and Pakistan’s automotive industries are both poised for substantial growth, and consequently present a flurry of investment opportunities.  Both countries have been positive outliers in Asia, due to superior stock market performance, higher economic growth, and also due to the relatively lower FX risks.  As both countries begin their transition to emerging markets, the automotive industry in particular represents a strategic outlet for investors to profit from the superior investment landscape that is present in both countries.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

U.S. Secular Economic Stagnation? / Economics / US Economy

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Stagnationists have been around for centuries. They have embraced many economic theories about what causes economic stagnation. That’s a situation in which total output, or output per capita, is constant, falling slightly, or rising sluggishly. Stagnation can also be characterized by a situation in which unemployment is chronic and growing.

Before we delve into the secular stagnation debate – a debate that has become a hot topic – a few words about current economic developments in the U.S. are in order. What was recently noticed was the Federal Reserve’s increase, for the first time in nearly a decade, of the fed funds interest rate by 0.25 percent. What went unnoticed, but was perhaps more important, was that the money supply, broadly measured by the Center for Financial Stability’s Divisia M4, jumped to a 4.6 percent year-over-year growth rate. This was the largest increase since May 2013.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

BEA Revises 3rd Quarter 2015 U.S. GDP Growth Upward to 1.99% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their third (and "final") estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +1.99% annualized rate, down -0.08% from their previous estimate -- and down nearly 2% (-1.93%) from the second quarter.

Almost all of the revisions in this report were minor, with the largest changes again involving the especially noisy inventory data. Most of the other line items were essentially unchanged. Inventories were reported to have been contracting at a -0.71% annualized rate, a -0.12% deterioration from from the -0.59% contraction rate reported in the previous estimate. As we have mentioned a number of times before, the BEA's treatment of inventories can introduce noise and seriously distort the headline number over short terms -- which the BEA admits by also publishing a secondary headline that excludes the impact of inventories. This BEA "bottom line" (their "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product") was actually revised upward +0.04% to a +2.70% growth rate for the third quarter, from the +2.66% previously reported.

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Economics

Monday, December 21, 2015

The Recession And Bear Market Of 2016, In Two Charts / Economics / Recession 2016

By: John_Rubino

Good friend Michael Pollaro just sent a couple of charts that show the US economy heading for a brick wall. The first illustrates what happens when business sales (the green line) turn negative. In the previous two boom/bust cycles, when sales started falling the economy either tipped into recession shortly thereafter or (it was discovered in retrospect) was already well into a contraction.

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Economics

Friday, December 18, 2015

The Velocity of the American Consumer / Economics / US Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I was reading something yesterday by my highly esteemed fellow writer Charles Hugh Smith that had me first puzzled and then thinking ‘I don’t think so’, in the same vein as Mark Twain’s recently over-quoted quote:

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”

I was thinking that was the case with Charles’ article. I was sure it just ain’t so. As for Twain, I’m more partial to another quote of his these days (though it has absolutely nothing to do with the topic:

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Economics

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Consumer Prices: A Sticky Situation / Economics / Inflation

By: Gary_Tanashian

We have noted anecdotally that there is a creeping inflation in the system.  It does not show up in commodities, which are in a post-bubble (ah, the good old ‘China story’ that was so vigorously promoted to a degree that would make a gold bug promoter blush) melt down.  Crashing costs like that are providing the Goldilocks-like balance to rising costs within the economy.

This morning, the highly recommended Daily Shot had among its macro graphs a look at the “sticky” consumer price index.  That got me to go over to the St. Louis Fed website and pull a couple different views of it.  First, here is SLF’s description of the sticky index…

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Economics

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

UK Jobs: No Pay, No Play / Economics / Employment

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Today's release of the UK jobs figures confirms the suspicions of the doves at the Bank of England, with earnings (pay) growth continuing to decline, joblessness pushing higher for the fourth straight month even as the unemployment rate hit a fresh 7-year low of 5.2%.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Vietnam Sails Smoothly Through The Commodity Storm / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Submissions

Dylan Waller writes: While the gloom faced in commodity prices has created slowed economic growth throughout frontier and emerging markets, there is one global market in Asia in particular that has not been deterred: Vietnam. Low commodity prices have been gruesome for some companies, and on a much larger scale has led to a global economic slowdown for commodity based economies.  While the current environment has created a flurry of buy opportunities in commodity based economies, investment in Vietnam provides a similar opportunity with substantially lower risk. Vietnam’s economy, driven by its strategic advantage of low cost manufacturing, is continuing to maintain its position as one of the fastest growing economies in Asia, and is poised for stronger economic growth throughout 2025.  

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Economics

Tuesday, December 08, 2015

Do You Follow The Hype Surrounding Economic Reporting? / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Rodney_Johnson

When my children were young, one of the books we read to them was: “When You Give a Mouse a Cookie.” The point of the book is to follow a chain reaction stemming from providing a treat to a rodent. He will want a glass of milk, a napkin, have to sweep up crumbs, etc. It was odd, but entertaining.

I’m often reminded of this book when I see economic reports. It’s not that the numbers are frivolous, but taken as individual data points they can’t mean very much.

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Economics

Monday, December 07, 2015

What Deflation Quacks Like / Economics / Deflation

By: Raul_I_Meijer

As yet another day of headlines shows, see the links and details in today’s Debt Rattle at the Automatic Earth, deflation is visible everywhere, from a 98% drop in EM debt issuance to junk bonds reporting the first loss since 2008 to corporate bonds downgrades to plummeting cattle prices in Kansas to China’s falling demand for iron ore and a whole list of other commodities.

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Economics

Saturday, December 05, 2015

Strong U.S. Payroll Number +211,000 Assures December Interest Rate Hike / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Initial Reaction

Following last month's payroll surge comes a second strong month. The Bloomberg Consensus estimate was 190,000 jobs and the headline total was 211,000. The unemployment rate was steady to 5.0%, the lowest since April 2008. A rate hike in December is now assured.

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Economics

Friday, December 04, 2015

The “Real Stuff” Economy Is Falling Apart / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Rubino

Each month one or two high-profile government reports show the US is growing, adding jobs and generally recovering from the Great Recession. But it’s not clear how that can be, when the part of the economy that makes and moves real things keeps shrinking. Here’s a chart, published recently by Zero Hedge, showing that US manufacturing has been contracting for the past year:

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Economics

Tuesday, December 01, 2015

Bank Regulations Continue To Hinder The U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Market Regulation

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Money matters — it’s one of Milton Friedman’s maxims that I repeat often in my columns. Since the Northern Rock bank run of 2007 — the “opening shot” of the financial crisis — the money supply, broadly measured, in the United States, Great Britain, and the Eurozone has taken a beating.

Recently, in the United States, money supply growth has started to rebound somewhat. This is a positive sign, because the quantity of money and nominal gross domestic product (GDP), as well as related measures of aggregate demand, are all closely related. Indeed, if broad money growth is robust, the nominal GDP, which is composed of real and inflation components, will be robust and vice versa.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 01, 2015

Collapsing Global Economic Trade / Economics / Global Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The global economic trade is down 8.4 percent so far this year. Among the many economic indicators that experts use to gauge the health of the world economy, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) usually goes unnoticed. This Index offers an indication of the global demand and supply of major stock materials that are used by manufacturers at the beginning of production. And the shocking truth is that the index has been plummeting to reach a new low not seen before.

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Economics

Friday, November 27, 2015

Economics Is About Scarcity, Property, and Relationships / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Michael J. McKay writes: The other day I was having coffee with a new friend, a retired businessman who had customized luxury cars in California. I mentioned I had recently retired from owning an investment firm and had studied economics for many years, especially Austrian economics.

Like so many people, he said, “I really don't understand economics and always have been confused by it.”

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Economics

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

BEA Revises 3rd Quarter 2015 US GDP Economic Growth Upward to 2.07% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their second estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +2.07% annualized rate, up +0.58% from their previous estimate -- but still down nearly 2% (-1.85%) from the second quarter.

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Economics

Monday, November 23, 2015

The Success of Irish Economic Austerity: The Joke is on Krugman / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: Michael_Pento

During the late 1990s, Ireland's economy was booming. This was mostly due to a low corporate tax rate of just 12.5% and an international real estate bubble that boosted global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). For a myriad of reasons Ireland was a magnet for foreign direct investment and the envy of Europe.

Buoyed by cheap money, the Irish government embarked on a debt-fueled property boom from 1997 to 2006, which caused the price of an average house to jump more than four-fold. Flush with tax revenue the government also went on a spending binge: investment in Ireland's health service soared by five times and pay for government workers doubled.

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Economics

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Limits to Economic Growth - Challenge and Choices / Economics / Global Economy

By: Nicole_Foss

Nicole Foss: After more than 30 years of exponential growth, gargantuan resource demand and increasingly frenetic consumption, we have now reached, or are reaching, an array of limits to growth. During our long, debt-fuelled boom, we reached out spatially through globalisation to monetise as much global production as possible, in order to facilitate the efficient transfer of wealth from the global periphery to its economic heartland.

We also, through the profligate use of credit and debt, reached forward in time to borrow from the future in order to stage an orgy of consumption in the present. This spectacularly successful modern form of economic imperialism delivered unprecedented wealth concentration, the like of which previous imperial structures could not have dreamed of attaining.

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