Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, October 18, 2015
Quantitative Easing Was a Bust; Let’s Try Higher Wages Instead / Economics / Wages
By: Mike_Whitney
Why is the economy still in the doldrums after 6 years of zero rates and three rounds of Quantitative Easing?
It’s because consumers aren’t consuming and there’s too much debt. You see, despite the Fed’s wacko theories about pumping liquidity into the financial system to make investors feel wealthier, people actually have to buy things to generate growth. And the truth is, consumers have reduced their spending because wages are flat, incomes are falling and many of them are still hanging on by the skin of their teeth. So consumption has been unusually weak. Economist Stephen Roach made a good point in an article at Project Syndicate. He said, “In the 22 quarters since early 2008, real personal-consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of US GDP, has grown at an average annual rate of just 1.1%, easily the weakest period of consumer demand in the post-World War II era.” (It’s also a) “massive slowdown from the pre-crisis pace of 3.6% annual real consumption growth from 1996 to 2007.” (“Occupy QE“, Stephen S. Roach, Project Syndicate)
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Thursday, October 15, 2015
Ignore The Media Bullsh*t – Retail Implosion Proves We Are In Recession / Economics / Recession 2015
By: James_Quinn
Here we go again. The dying legacy media will continue to support the status quo, who provide their dwindling advertising revenue, by papering over the truth with platitudes, lies, and misinformation. I have been detailing the long slow death of retail in America for the last few years. The data and facts are unequivocal. Therefore, the establishment and their media mouthpieces need to suppress the truth.
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
The Deteriorating U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Antonius_Aquinas
Despite doubling the national debt and the expansion of the money supply to some $8 trillion since the beginning of Obummer’s misbegotten presidency, the U.S. economy is once again in a free fall. Actually, there has been no real recovery, but a continual deterioration of living standards despite the lies and distortions from the financial media and government authorities.
Conditions, however, are now descending at an even faster pace.
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Friday, October 09, 2015
U.S. Can Expect Recession in 1-3 Years / Economics / Recession 2016
By: Bloomberg
David Rubenstein, co-founder and co-CEO at The Carlyle Group, joined hosts Stephanie Ruhle and David Westin on Bloomberg TV's new flagship morning program, Bloomberg <GO>. Rubenstein discussed his call for one or two percent U.S. growth in the next year and explains why the country can expect a recession within the next three years. He also spoke about a transformation taking place in China and unrealistic expectations for 10 percent growth in the nation's economy.
Rubenstein told Bloomberg TV that a U.S. recession is "inevitable." He said "We have not really had a recession in six years. We came out of the last recession in June of 2009. We tend to have recessions every seven years, more or less in the United States, since World War II. So at some point in the next year or two or three, you can expect a recession."
Friday, October 09, 2015
The Greater Economic Depression Deep State / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Casey_Research
Master speculator and economic expert Doug Casey believes a global financial crisis is just around the corner, which will result in what he has termed the “Greater Depression”...
This essay originally appeared in The Casey Report. In it, Doug details a hidden but powerful force known as the “deep state” that’s ruining the country.
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Friday, October 09, 2015
Why This Feels Like an Economic Depression for Most People / Economics / Economic Depression
By: James_Quinn
Everyone has seen the pictures of the unemployed waiting in soup lines during the Great Depression. When you try to tell a propaganda believing, willfully ignorant, mainstream media watching, math challenged consumer we are in the midst of a Greater Depression, they act as if you've lost your mind. They will immediately bluster about the 5.1% unemployment rate, record corporate profits, and stock market near all-time highs. The cognitive dissonance of these people is only exceeded by their inability to understand basic mathematical concepts.
Wednesday, October 07, 2015
Retirement Fears in China Ageing Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
The current economic mess in the developed world is easy to explain and hard to fix.
This is a demand-driven downturn, where aging populations choose to save more of what they earn, take on less debt, and generally rotate to a risk-averse world view.
The change isn’t new. It happens to almost all of us as we get older.
Wednesday, October 07, 2015
The 5th Convergence…An Economic & Financial Superstorm That Will Devastate America / Economics / Cycles Analysis
By: Harry_Dent
This morning we had to face some hard truths. The economy’s beginning to show its true colors.Last month the economy added just 142,000 jobs. August was revised substantially lower to just 136,000 jobs. Analysts were expecting 200,000-plus jobs growth like it would go on forever.
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Tuesday, October 06, 2015
U.S. Economic Recovery Failure to Launch / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
The popular belief that the U.S. economy has been steadily recovering has endured months of disappointing data without losing much of its appeal. A deep bench of excuses, ranging from the weather to the Chinese economy, has been called on to justify why the economy hasn't built up any noticeable steam, and why the Fed has failed to move rates off zero, where they have been for seven years. But the downright dismal September jobs report that was released last Friday may prove to be the flashing red beacon that even the most skilled apologists can't explain away. The report should make it abundantly clear that we are far closer to recession than recovery. But old notions die hard and, shockingly, most economists still believe that we have hit a temporary speed bump not a brick wall. But at some point healthy hope turns into dangerous delusion. We may have just turned that corner.
Monday, October 05, 2015
U.S. Recession Watch, High-Yield – Rising Defaults / Economics / Recession 2015
By: John_Mauldin
“Growth is never by mere chance; it is the result of forces working together.”– J.C. Penney
“Strength and growth come only through continuous effort and struggle.”– Napoleon Hill
“We’re lost, but we’re making good time.” – Yogi Berra, 1925-2015, RIP (For a most moving and memory-laden tribute to Yogi, see The Lefsetz Letter.)
The Yogi Berra quote above, which was brought to my attention this week, seems an apt description of where the markets and the economy are today. Nobody is quite sure where we are or where we’re going, but we all seem to think we’re going to get there soon.
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Friday, October 02, 2015
A Worrying Set Of Recession Signals / Economics / Recession 2015
By: John_Mauldin
By John Mauldin
There is presently a bull market in complacency. There are very few alarm bells going off anywhere; and frankly, in reaction to my own personal complacency, I have my antenna up for whatever it is I might be missing that would indicate an approaching recession.
It was very easy to call the last two recessions well in advance because we had inverted yield curves. In the US at least, that phenomenon has a perfect track record of predicting recessions. The problem now is that, with the Federal Reserve holding the short end of the curve at the zero bound, there is no way we can get an inverted yield curve, come hell or high water. For the record, inverted yield curves do not cause recessions, they simply indicate that something is seriously out of whack with the economy. Typically, a recession shows up three to four quarters later.
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Friday, October 02, 2015
The Reality Behind the Numbers in China’s Boom-Bust Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: MISES
Yonathan Amselem writes: Last year, the world was stunned by an IMF report which found the Chinese economy larger and more productive than that of the United States, both in terms of raw GDP and purchasing power parity (PPP). The Chinese people created more goods and had more purchasing power with which to obtain them — a classic sign of prosperity. At the same time, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite more than doubled in value since October of 2014. This explosion in growth was accompanied by a post-recession construction boom that rivals anything the world has ever seen. In fact, in the three years from 2011 – 2013, the Chinese economy consumed more cement than the United States had in the entire twentieth century. Across the political spectrum, the narrative for the last fifteen years has been that of a rising Chinese hyperpower to rival American economic and cultural influence around the globe. China’s state-led “red capitalism” was a model to be admired and even emulated.
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Friday, October 02, 2015
Deflation: It's Been a Stealth Move / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Elliott Wave International's European Financial Forecast Editor discusses deflation
In this new interview, Elliott Wave International's Brian Whitmer explains the indirect connection between Europe's volatility and deflation. Find out how Brian's advising his subscribers prepare for deflation.
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Monday, September 28, 2015
Economic Channels of Distress - Fourth Turning Crisis of Trust / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
In Part 1 of this article I discussed the catalyst spark which ignited this Fourth Turning and the seemingly delayed regeneracy. In Part 2 I pondered possible Grey Champion prophet generation leaders who could arise during the regeneracy. In Part 3 I will focus on the economic channel of distress which is likely to be the primary driving force in the next phase of this Crisis.
There are very few people left on this earth who lived through the last Fourth Turning (1929 - 1946). The passing of older generations is a key component in the recurring cycles which propel the world through the seemingly chaotic episodes that paint portraits on the canvas of history. The current alignment of generations is driving this Crisis and will continue to give impetus to the future direction of this Fourth Turning. The alignment during a Fourth Turning is always the same: Old Artists (Silent) die, Prophets (Boomers) enter elderhood, Nomads (Gen X) enter midlife, Heroes (Millennials) enter young adulthood -- and a new generation of child Artists (Gen Y) is born. This is an era in which America's institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up -- always in response to a perceived threat to the nation's very survival.
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Friday, September 18, 2015
U.S. Economy Future Expectations Made Six Months Ago vs. Today's Reality / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
On Thursday, I noted Bloomberg's comment "Something Very Wrong" with the manufacturing sector.
More completely, Bloomberg stated "There may very well be something wrong with the manufacturing sector, at least in the Northeast where the Empire State index has been in deep negative ground for the last two months followed now by a minus 6.0 headline for the Philly Fed index."
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Thursday, September 17, 2015
Syria's Economy Not Shaken by ISIS / Economics / Syria
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The fog of war has removed any sense of certainty regarding developments on the Syrian battlefield. That said, we know that ISIS has captured several towns, and that waves of Syrian refugees are disembarking upon Europe's shores. But, the picture remains chaotic and hazy.
Tuesday, September 15, 2015
Empire Fed, Retail Sales, Industrial Production All Miss / Economics / US Economy
By: Ashraf_Laidi
A trifecta of misses in today's US economic releases may not be a game-changer in Thursday's Fed decision because the game is already "unchanged". The September Empire Fed survey posted another double digit decline to remain at 6-year lows, August retail sales rose 0.3% to miss expectations for the sixth consecutive month and industrial production fell 0.4% in August to post seven declines over the past eight months--the worst pattern since 2008-9.
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Monday, September 14, 2015
No Recession, But… / Economics / Recession 2015
By: Gary_Tanashian
I am personally not yet convinced an ultimate bull market top is in despite the obvious similarities of the recent interim top to 2007 [the first sign in this regard would be a loss of the October 2014 and August 2015 lows]. It could also be a 1998 clone, as we have noted by chart similarities and by global financial similarities (China/Asia). However, in 2007 the stock market did a good job of forecasting the coming “Great Recession” (a sanitized way of saying ‘impulsive unwinding of leverage’). Here is what economists think today (ref. Bloomberg article): http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/here-s-when-economists-expect-to-see-the-next-u-s-recession. 2018 it is, according to a majority of buttoned down dart throwers.
Monday, September 14, 2015
U.S. Unemployment Rate - A Dirty Game of Numbers / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The newest addition of the Bureau of lies’ newest falsified and manipulated document about the employment figures is now out, available for viewing of the ignorant masses. The makers of the report will make sure that they drum it up for the whole world to hear, so that their plans of treachery and deceit stay well on course. Even the mature financial minds at Wall Street will accept it, because they are always in search of positive news to help their financial interests in the market.
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Friday, September 11, 2015
China's Market Meltdown: Dangers and Opportunities / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
The buzz around Mauldin Economics’ virtual water cooler these days is El Jefe’s new documentary, China on the Edge. The timing for the online release, September 23, is propitious given the media attention to the meltdown of the Chinese market. The list of participants is impressive, and John has spent considerable time over the last few years wrapping his brain around the staggering number of variables at play in the People’s Republic of China.