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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, May 13, 2016

Atlanta Fed GDPNow +2.8% vs. New York Fed Nowcast +1.2% / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Following today's retail sales alleged blowout, to which treasury yields actually declined, comes a big GDP upgrade by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model vs. a smaller jump by the New York Fed Nowcast Model.

The difference between the forecasts is now a whopping 1.6 percentage points.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Can You Actually Live Too Long? / Economics / Demographics

By: Rodney_Johnson

The mainstream media has your number. You make too much money, you don’t pay enough in taxes, and you get too many tax deductions.

Now there’s a new charge to add to the list – you live too long.

We all know that Social Security favors low-income workers. As the graph illustrates, for those at the low end of the average wage scale, Social Security replaces a little more than 50% of their income.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

How Strong is The U.S. Economy Really? / Economics / US Economy

By: Clif_Droke

In the six years since the recovery began, there has been endless debate over the strength of the U.S. economy. There are basically two sides of the debate. Those taking the positive side maintain the economy has almost returned to its pre-crisis levels and is on a firm footing. The opposing camp maintains that while the upper classes are in fine shape, the middle class is still hurting from the residual damage inflicted by the housing bubble implosion and credit crash. Is one side entirely mistaken or is there truth to both assertions?

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Economics

Monday, May 09, 2016

Japan: An Economy of Zeros / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Michael_Pento

The red sun on the flag of Japan symbolizes its position as the land of the rising sun. However, during WWII that round shape was pejoratively referred to as a zero. And now, since Japans economy is emitting so many zeros it can, unfortunately, once again be referred to as the land of zeros.

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Economics

Sunday, May 08, 2016

Demographics and the Protein Ladder / Economics / Demographics

By: Richard_Mills

In 1800, three percent of the world's population lived in urban areas. By 1900, roughly 14 percent of the world's population were urbanites and 12 cities had 1 million or more inhabitants.

In 1950, 30 percent - 746 million people - resided in urban centers and the number of cities with over 1 million people had grown to 83.

In 1975 three cities had populations of 10 million or more. In 1990, there were ten “mega-cities” with 10 million inhabitants or more, which were home to 153 million people or slightly less than seven per cent of the global urban population at that time. Megacities (minimum population of 10 mil to qualify) numbered 16 in 2000.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 03, 2016

Just Look to the Middle-Class for Proof of Trickle-Down Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Harry_Dent

Politicians and economists get many things wrong, but right now, the one thing that really gets up my… let’s keep this clean and just say, nose… is how clueless they are about “trickle-down economics.”

Republicans believe it. (They just don’t realize how long it takes and that it isn’t happening yet from the information revolution.)

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Economics

Saturday, April 30, 2016

US Economic Statistics LIES, LIES AND OMG, MORE LIES / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: James_Quinn

It’s that time of year again. It’s open enrollment for health plans at my employer. They are biggest employer in Philly and have the most leverage possible with the insurance companies. They have such good leverage that my premiums are going up “only” 9.8% this year for a basic HMO plan. Based on what I hear from others, I should be thankful for just a 9.8% increase.

This isn’t a new development. Since I’ve been tracking all my expenditures using Quicken since 1991, I know exactly what my annual health insurance costs have been every year. Obamacare was passed in 2009 and began to be implemented in 2010. Obama declared that families could expect $2,500 of savings per year. I know for a fact my annual medical expenses were $2,000 higher in 2015 than they were in 2010.

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Economics

Friday, April 29, 2016

Sri Lanka is Intriguing: Areas to Consider for Value Investing / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Dylan_Waller

The stock market discount and comparatively stronger trends of growth present in frontier Asia is intriguing, and a buy frontier, sell emerging approach is one of the most clear cut ways to prosper when investing in Asia. These trends, coupled with noteworthy political improvements, can be combined to create a strong value investing case. Sri Lanka is a strong frontier market in Asia that meets all of these requirements, yet is being relegated by many foreign investors. Sri Lanka has been benefiting from the end of the country’s 26 year civil war that ended in 2009, which has resulted in an improved political landscape.   This improvement has been coupled with Sri Lanka’s new government, which was elected in January 2015.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Global Recession in 2016 and Beyond - The Obvious Evidence / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Rajveer_Rawlin

Definition of a Recession:

The textbook definition of a recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Some examples of recessions include the great depression of the 1930's, the dotcom crash of 2000 and the great recession of 2008.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Saudi Arabia Releases Ambitious Plan To Diversify Economy / Economics / Saudi Arabia

By: OilPrice_Com

On Monday, Saudi Arabia released a blueprint for the future, a plan for the Kingdom that could alter the course of its history. The "Vision for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia" could radically transform Saudi Aramco, the Saudi economy, and the country's social structure.

The plan has been pioneered by the 30-year-old Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the second in line to the King, who has emerged as one of the most powerful figures in the Saudi government. Just a week ago his influence was on display; while it is difficult to know exactly what went on behind the scenes, all signs point to the Deputy Crown Prince overruling the long-standing and respected oil minister Ali al-Naimi to kill off the OPEC deal in Doha.

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Economics

Sunday, April 24, 2016

Why Leftist Greeks have more reasons than Liberals to favour Entrepreneurship and Support Entrepreneurs / Economics / SME

By: Submissions

Petros Diplas writes: Recently I read  it and said “There goes another myth."

"It is an indisputable fact that Leftism and Entrepreneurship in Greece are incompatible concepts."
Everybody blames the Greek Left - and I insist on Greek – to be against entrepreneurship.

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Economics

Saturday, April 23, 2016

Mish's Sure Fire Proposal to End Japanese Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

It's rather amusing that Japan cannot destroy its currency even though it has tried, and tried and tried.

Abenomics has been a huge failure. Keynesian "solutions" of all sorts have failed to rid Japan of the alleged scourge of deflation.

Some think handing out free money is the obvious solution, but what if people don't spend it?

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Economics

Thursday, April 14, 2016

The Winter of Discontent / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

The Winter of 2015-2016, which came to an end a few weeks ago, has been officially designated as the mildest in the U.S. in 121 years according to NOAA. While this fact will certainly add a major talking point in the global warming debate, it should also be front and center in the current economic discussion. The fact that it isn't is testament to the blatantly self-serving manner in which economic cheerleaders blame the weather when it's convenient, but ignore it when it's not. If economists were consistent (and that's a colossal "if"), the good weather would be taken as a reason to believe the economy is weaker than is being reported.

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Economics

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Why is The MSM Covering Up Recessionary Data? / Economics / Recession 2016

By: James_Quinn

The Census Bureau put out their monthly retail sales report this morning. During good times, the MSM would be hailing the tremendous increases as proof the consumer was flush with cash and all was well with the economy. Considering 70% of our GDP is dependent upon consumer spending, you would think this data point would be pretty important in judging how well Americans are really doing.

It's not perfect, because the issuance of debt to consumers to purchase autos, furniture, appliances and electronics can juice the retail sales numbers and create the false impression of strength. That's what has been going on with auto sales for the last two years.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

The Millennial Moment and the Global Crisis / Economics / Demographics

By: Clif_Droke

It's a trite saying but a profound one all the same: "History always repeats." We've all heard this bromide countless times, yet how many of us have truly pondered its significance?

The truism that history tends to repeat itself over time is the basis of the cyclical view of human affairs as applied to the financial market. Cycle investors believe that by studying past episodes of a similar character they can divine the outcome of currents events. It's not surprising then that the cyclists among us have turned their attention toward the global financial market slowdown and tepid pace of the U.S. economy recovery.

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Economics

Saturday, April 09, 2016

The Minimum Wage Debate – So What? / Economics / Wages

By: Andy_Sutton

There has been an incredible amount of posturing, debate, and arguing over the minimum wage situation – particularly surrounding recent events in California and New York where legislation was recently signed into law that would effectively double the nominal minimum wage over the next several years – 6 years in California, and 3 in New York City. The rest of New York will see the changes phased in over a longer period of time.

Instead of diving headlong into the useless arguing and name-calling, I think it is important to take a step back from the dogmatic rhetoric we hear on television, from the media, our legislators, and those in academia and take a hard look at the economics behind the idea of having a minimum wage to begin with. This going to take a bit of a leap for pretty much all of us since we’ve either grown up with a minimum wage in place or have had a job that paid minimum wage at some point – myself included.

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Economics

Friday, April 08, 2016

Oor 'Lawnmower' Economy - Financiers Skim Profits While Main Street Stagnates / Economics / US Economy

By: Gordon_T_Long

Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long share their thinking on why the middle class in America has been experiencing a steady decline in their real standard of living over the last four decades and why the decline has recently accelerated. Their is a fundamental reason why productivity is falling while corporate profits soar and the employment participation rates falls.

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Economics

Thursday, April 07, 2016

Can We Grow Out Of Our Economic Problems If We’re Not Actually Growing? / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Rubino

The rationale for today’s easy money policies is pretty straightforward: Falling interest rates and rising government deficits will counteract the drag of excessive debts taken on in previous stimulus programs and asset bubbles, enabling the developed world to create wealth faster than it takes on new debt. The result: a steady decline in debt/GDP to levels that allow the current system to survive without wrenching changes.

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Economics

Sunday, April 03, 2016

California Minimum Wage Hike History / Economics / Wages

By: Mike_Shedlock

California Governor Jerry Brown launched a Political Earthquake proposing a series of minimum wage hikes every year between now and 2022 when the minimum wage hits $15.

The Huffington post reports "The new law will boost paychecks for millions of California workers. More than 40% of California workers earn less than $15 dollars an hour."

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Economics

Sunday, April 03, 2016

What New Economic Recovery? / Economics / US Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The rise of the ‘dollar store business model’ caters to a disappearing ‘middle class’ who are incurring shrinking incomes. This has made ‘dollar stores’ prosper, in the last decade. Dollar stores, for most Americans, have carried an odd sort of stigma.  In the past, these stores were seen as shopping for the poor, only.  We are all now aware that many people who were in the once strong American ‘middle class’ were thrown off of the prosperity path and into ‘lower income’ brackets from business layoffs, downsizing, and salary reduction.  While regular product companies struggle the expanding ‘dollar stores’ have found a niche in this economic climate.  The shrinking ‘middle class’ means more customers for ‘dollar stores’.

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