Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, March 07, 2016
Free Trade Is the Path to Prosperity / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Georgi Vuldzhev writes: The political circus of the 2016 presidential election has revived and reinvigorated popular belief in age-old protectionist fallacies. Currently both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, are both in favor of expanding protectionist trade policy, with both of them arguing that free trade “destroys” jobs and hurts domestic workers and producers by exposing them to foreign competition. Both candidates espouse an utterly misguided zero-sum view of economics, in which one side to an exchange wins only when the other side loses. Both men are, of course, completely wrong.
Monday, March 07, 2016
China: A 5-Year Economic Plan And 50 Million Jobs Lost! / Economics / China Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
China never had an actual economic model or growth model. It simply printed an obscene amount of money, especially after 2008, and used it to build factories, 30-story see-through apartment blocks and highways into nowhere cities, without giving much if any thought to where this would lead when their formerly rich western customers had less to spend on its ever increasing amount of ever more useless products, or when its workers would stop spending ever more on apartments as investments, or when no more roads and bridges were needed because nowhere was already in plain sight. Or all of the above. It was ‘to infinity and beyond’ from the start, but that’s a line from a kids’ fantasy story, not a 5-year plan or an economic model.
Friday, March 04, 2016
US Jobs Report 242,000 Jobs: 304,000 Were Part-Time; Average Weekly Earnings Sank / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Jobs came in well above expectations at 242,000 despite tax data collections that support a Job Growth estimate of 55,000 to 85,000 .
A quick dive into the details shows the report is a lot weaker than the headline number indicates. Of the 242,000 jobs added, 304,000 of them were part time. That means the economy actually shed 62,000 full-time jobs.
Average hours worked declined as did average weekly earnings despite minimum wage hikes in numerous states at the beginning of the year.
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Friday, March 04, 2016
Lies, Damn Lies, & BLS Economic Statistics / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: James_Quinn
“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.” ― Benjamin Disraeli
It’s my favorite day of the month. The Bureau of Lies & Scams issues their double seasonally adjusted, massaged to provide a happy ending, birth death adjusted unemployment propaganda, designed to keep the masses in the dark about their own dire financial circumstances. Even though the equally manipulated GDP is at 1% or below, retail sales are plunging, corporate profits plummeted by 15% in the 4th quarter and Challenger & Grey corporate layoff announcements were up 42% in January versus last year, our fraudulent friends at the BLS announced glorious employment figures this morning.
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Thursday, March 03, 2016
Stock Market Faulty Recession Barometer / Economics / Recession 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
A cacophony of recession chatter is filling the airwaves. Some experts are already declaring we are in one while others are raising warning flags. Their message has not been lost on the masses: Google searches for the word "recession" have risen to the highest level since 2012. Interestingly, many commentators cite the 20% decline in global stock prices as the warning signal, if not the cause. But veteran investor Joe McAlinden believes the U.S. economy will continue to expand in the year ahead.
Tuesday, March 01, 2016
U.S. Demographics - The Affluent Market Is Fading FAST / Economics / Demographics
By: Harry_Dent
About 30 years ago, I was able to predict the U.S. would see a major generational spending peak in 2007, all from my demographic indicator, the Generational Spending Wave.On a 46-year lag from the time they were born, that’s when the peak number of baby boomers would peak in spending for the average household.
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Tuesday, March 01, 2016
New Delhi's Dream of Indian Economy Surpassing China / Economics / India
By: Sol_Palha
"Do not wait for ideal circumstances nor for the best opportunities; they will never come." ~ Anonymous
India has had many aspirations to overtake China, but this is more of a pipedream than reality. India's corruption makes China's corruption seem non-existent. Add in the traffic jams, and filth one has to deal with in parts of Mumbai and Delhi, and the allure of investing in India loses its appeal rather rapidly. This is the reason India continues to suffer such a massive amount of brain drain . Smart Indians understand that their best option is to seek greener pastures. Modi's government had the strongest mandate of any government, yet like all his predecessors he seems to be all talk and little to no action; he has failed to implement any noteworthy changes.
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Monday, February 29, 2016
China's Newest Export: Empty Buildings / Economics / China Economy
By: Michael_Pento
A little over six months ago the owners of the Baha Mar, a $3.5 billion Bahamian resort, filed for bankruptcy. Shoddy construction from the China State Construction Company led to delays resulting from leaking plumbing, porous Chinese concrete and large cracks at critical stress points. The doomed project even led to the death of two Chinese workers. Although the building is 97% complete, the structural deficiencies make it uninhabitable. Given the Chinese proclivity to build ghost towns, it makes you wonder if their construction crews are accustomed to erecting buildings that are never intended to be occupied.
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Friday, February 26, 2016
BEA Revises U.S. 4th Quarter 2015 GDP Growth Upward to 1.00% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their second estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +1.00% annualized rate, up +0.31% from their first estimate for the fourth quarter, but still down -0.99% (nearly half) from the third quarter.
All of the net improvement can be attributed to one line item, inventories -- which were up the same +0.31% as the headline aggregate -- while the sum of the changes in the other line items netted out to zero.
Thursday, February 25, 2016
Central Bank Inflation Targets: Be Careful What You Wish For / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
Did you ever ask yourself what this central bank obsession with inflation is really all about? After all, it is highly ironic that these erstwhile stewards of price stability have now perversely morphed into the frantic pursuit of currency destruction. This is because the current doctrine adopted by global central bankers is that growth comes from inflation; and without inflation there can be no growth. Therefore, as their new dogma dictates, inflation must be achieved at any cost.
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Thursday, February 25, 2016
America We Are Already In A Recession 2016 / Economics / Recession 2016
By: Harry_Dent
So the S&P 500 is out of correction for now and the coast is clear. NOT! This is exactly what we’ve been predicting would happen – after reaching new lows, stocks would have to bounce before they inevitably resume their longer-term trend, which is down.
But stocks haven’t been the only victims of late. Just a couple weeks ago the January nonfarm payroll report came in at 151,000 jobs. So much for the expected 190,000! And of the ones reported, they were mostly low-wage jobs.
Thursday, February 25, 2016
This is The Problem With Free Trade / Economics / Global Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
If you join a poker game and can’t identify the “mark,” then chances are, you’re it! The “mark” is the person at the game who is less experienced, or perhaps is given to reckless betting. By including this player in the game, everyone else has an opportunity to walk away a winner.But don’t lose sight of the bigger picture. Not everyone is a winner, and typically someone ends up the big loser!
The same principle works when countries get together for free or open trade. Everyone talks about how great it will be, how much their economies will grow, about efficiencies and new opportunities. But they almost never talk about the people who will lose.
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Wednesday, February 24, 2016
Don't Expect Global Economy 'Crisis Response' from G-20 Meeting / Economics / Global Economy
By: Bloomberg
U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew sat down with Bloomberg's David Westin in Washington D.C. ahead of the G-20 meeting later this week in Shanghai, China.
When asked about a response from G-20 to global market turbulence, Lew said: "Don't expect a crisis response in a non-crisis environment. You know, it's not the job of finance ministers and central bank governors to accelerate a crisis. It's our job to try and avoid a crisis. If you're in a crisis, you do different things."
He added: "I don't think this is a moment in time when you're going to see individual countries make the kinds of specific commitments that have been made in some other contexts that have been marked by real crisis. This is not a moment of crisis. This is a moment where you've got real economies doing better than markets think, in some cases."
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Tuesday, February 23, 2016
The Central Banks Are Pushing the World Towards Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Chris_Vermeulen
With the entire world struggling to ward off global deflation, it is prudent to understand why the current actions by the Central Banks are not heading in the correct direction. The massive amount of Quantitative Easing by the Central Banks, globally, have not been converted into inflation as was earlier anticipated. This article will shed light on various aspects leading to deflation.
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Eurozone Economic Recovery is Over: Deflationary Pressures Intensify as Growth Slows / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
ECB president Mario Draghi has his work cut out for him as deflationary pressure in Europe intensify. Average prices charged by companies for their goods and services fell at the steepest rate for a year as firms competed to boost sales.
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Monday, February 22, 2016
U.S. Inflation: Prepare for 4% or more! / Economics / Inflation
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Last we visited on the subject of U.S. inflation (November, 2015) we wrote,
"Using those simplistic numbers suggests that U.S. inflation as measured by the [headline] CPI could rise to an annual rate of about 4% ..."
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Friday, February 19, 2016
These 3 Factors Make a U.S. Recession 2016 Highly Probable / Economics / Recession 2016
By: EWI
Dear Investor,
I'm sure you noticed that the markets went off the rails since the start of this year. During this decline, there has been one persistent question market pundits have been trying to answer:
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Tuesday, February 16, 2016
Inflation Doesn't Come From Seasonally Adjusted Employment / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), there were 151k, 000 net new jobs created in the month of January, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.9%. The continuing increase in new job creation and removal of slack in the labor market is causing the Phillips-curve-obsessed Fed to maintain a tightening stance on monetary policy.
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Tuesday, February 16, 2016
Steve Hanke On Hyperinflation Hype / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The Great Recession of 2008-09 brought with it quantitative easing. This, in turn, spawned a cottage industry of books, articles and blog posts about hyperinflation. The burgeoning literature contains a great deal of hype, which validates the 95% Rule: 95% of what is written about economics and finance is either wrong or irrelevant.
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Tuesday, February 09, 2016
One Chart Depicts Economic Recovery 100% Fiction / Economics / Unemployment
By: Sol_Palha
Anything I've ever done that ultimately was worthwhile... initially scared me to death.Betty Bender
They say a picture is worth a thousand words and this chart is probably worth a lot more. It illustrates how the BLS has been lying through its teeth over the past seven years. Then again anyone with a grain of common sense could figure out that the retarded methodology the BLS employs is bound to create the illusion that all is well. They purposely discount individuals that have stopped looking for work in coming up with their unemployment numbers. Hence, the 5% figure is not an accurate reflection of the landscape. The chart below provides a more realistic view of the unemployed in the U.S and in some areas we believe that the numbers could be more than 30%
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