Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Economic Deflation is Not Coming, Deflation is Here! / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
David, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's chief North American economist, says the US Remains Firmly In Recession . Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg, the first economist from a major bank to declare a US recession was underway back in early January, argues that recent unemployment figures show yet more evidence that the US economy is a deep recession. My Comment : I could not possibly agree more.
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Saturday, August 09, 2008
Italy Tips Into Recession as Q2 GDP Contracts / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Victoria_Marklew
The first of the Euro-zone's big economies reported preliminary Q2 GDP data today -- and the picture was not a pretty one. Italy's GDP contracted 0.3% q-o-q in Q2, and posted zero growth on the year.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 09, 2008
The Fast Disappearing U.S. Middle Class / Economics / US Stock Markets
By: Jennifer_Barry
I've been concerned about the state of the U.S. economy for several years, but only recently has mainstream America started waking up to the severity of the crisis. Even the depths of the Dow bear market in 2003 didn't engender this much pessimism. At the time, most people still believed that stocks would go up in the long run, and it was time to scoop up the bargains. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 08, 2008
American Dream Optimism in Denial of Inflation and Slumping Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
In holding overnight rates steady at 2% this week, the Fed once again put forth its belief that despite a cascade of horrific financial data, the economy was likely to continue to grow slowly and that inflation would moderate. Although wrong on both counts, this view is consistent with the relative optimism that prevails across the country. After nearly two decades of an uninterrupted consumption binge, most Americans simply refuse to believe that anything can seriously derail the American economy. It's a pleasant dream, but the wakeup call can't be too far off. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 08, 2008
Rising Inflation Ensures Stock Markets Headed for More Distress / Economics / Inflation
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The enthusiastic response of the market to the moderation in the price of imported oil and the Fed monetary statement is a bit overdone. It is based on the hope that inflation will moderate rather than a hard-nosed look at the pricing environment. Our Senior Economic advisor Bill Poole, who knows more than a bit about crafting a coherent Fed statement, reminded the market recently that since August 2006 the FOMC in one way or another has been signaling that they anticipate inflation will moderate in coming quarters. Yet, our core inflation forecast suggests otherwise. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 07, 2008
US Economic Wealth Last Chance Saloon Rant / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mick_Phoenix
What a feckin mess we are in. Yea how the mighty have fallen, whom those that expect wealth see only ruin, how the public will bail out the profligate. Welcome to the incredibly horrible world I have foreseen and how Eggertsson got it so right but how the endgame is so wrong for Joe Public. You think the Mogambo Guru has a deep bunker of absolute denial (MBDBOD)? Well I'll let you into a secret, the fecker is digging wayyyyyy higher in the earths crust than I am. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 07, 2008
US Soaring Jobless Claims and the "L" Shaped Recession / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Implications Of An Overleveraged Consumer For an economy overleveraged on consumer spending the chart could hardly look worse. Yet, it is going to get worse, lots worse. Hiring has stalled, commercial real estate is hitting the skids, vacancy rates at malls are rising, lease rates are dropping. In short, the Shopping Center Economic Model Is History .
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Thursday, August 07, 2008
German Manufacturing Hit by Crumbling Eurozone Economy / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
Midst a steady drumbeat of weak-to-negative economic news out of the Euro-zone in the past few days, there was one report today that gives particular cause for concern - German manufacturing orders. Germany has been the 'zone's economic powerhouse in the past few quarters, continuing to see steady-to-strong GDP growth even as demand and output started to weaken, or even outright slide, in France, Italy, and Spain. However, falling demand from the neighbors is starting to take a toll. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 04, 2008
How Washington is Fooling You: Manipulated Employment Data / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Mike_Stathis
Shell Game - The government and related agencies are responsible for reporting the nation's economic data. Thus, they're in the driver's seat to manipulate this data, while dumping so much of it onto consumers that they can't possibly analyze what's really going on. Each day, “critical” economic numbers are released by one or more agencies connected to Washington . And consumers look to Wall Street and the media to make heads or tails of this data. Of course, Wall Street is always going to paint a rosier picture for its own benefit. Meanwhile, the mainstream media merely serves as a puppet for Wall Street. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 04, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (August 4th- 8th 2008) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the personal income/spending report on Monday will shape the upcoming week in US financial markets. Other first tier data to be published during the upcoming week will be the ISM non-manufacturing reports on Tuesday, jobless claims on Thursday and non-farm productivity/unit labor cost report on Friday. The week will see another five days of plentiful earnings reports. Of the large number of firms reporting the releases by AMBAC, MBIA, Freddie Mac and Proctor and Gamble all retain the capacity to move the markets. Due to the FOMC meeting, there will be no Fed speak on during the week of August 4-8 Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 03, 2008
Commodities Keel Over as US Heads for Prolonged Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
As oil prices seesawed through the past week, fresh uncertainty about the outlook for the beleaguered financial sector triggered another wave of volatility in financial markets.
With the exception of Friday, crude prices closed each day with a gain or loss of more than 1%, with US stocks doing likewise as sentiment waxed and waned on the back of a barrage of economic and corporate earnings reports. Economic data were mixed, whereas earnings were mostly better than feared. After all the action, the S&P 500 Index closed the week virtually unchanged, posting a small gain of 0.2%.
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Saturday, August 02, 2008
Payrolls and Unemployment Data Confirm US In Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 5.7% in July vs. 5.5% in June; cycle low is 4.4% in March 2007
Payroll Employment: -51,000 in July vs. -51,000 in June, net gain of 26,000 jobs after revisions of payroll estimates for May and June.
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Friday, August 01, 2008
Silver and Monetary Considerations of Hyperinflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: David_Morgan
Many of you are probably too young to appreciate the full impact of the hyperinflation in Germany after WW1. It was devastating. This picture shows you the amount of paper that was equal to one silver dollar, or ¾ of one troy ounce of fine silver. After seven years of constantly accelerating inflation, the mark is finally stabilized at the rate of over 4 trillion to a U.S. dollar. The black market rate, however, was an incredible 12 trillion to the dollar at this time. The pre-inflation exchange rate for the mark was by contrast a modest 4.2 to the U.S. dollar. Can anyone say Hyperinflation? Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 01, 2008
US Jobs Decline for 7th Month, Deep Revisions to Bad Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at weekly claims. The US Department of Labor is reporting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims continue to rise.
Seasonally Adjusted
In the week ending July 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 448,000, an increase of 44,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 404,000. The 4-week moving average was 393,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised average of 382,000.
Friday, August 01, 2008
Bank Bailouts and Weak Economy Ensure Worsening US Budget Deficit / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The mid-session review of the federal budget released during the past week saw the White House revise its outlook for the deficit towards nominal highs. The administration is forecasting that the deficit will come in at $389 billion in 2008 and the 2009 deficit should arrive at $482 billion.
The provisional estimate is a snapshot of current spending plans that does not take into account the emerging economic reality. This year seven banks have failed, which may be a grim preview of the forthcoming problems among regional and second-tier banks. The economic slowdown has generated tax receipts through the first nine months of fiscal 2008 equal to 17.9% of GDP, which is less than the 40-year average.
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Friday, August 01, 2008
What's the Real Rate of Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: HRA_Advisory
There is a debate building around inflation. The outcome of this debate will determine the direction of interest rates and credit creation. By extension many commodity prices, especially precious metals and energy, will get direction too.
This past week saw the release of the US CPI reading for June with a “headline” increase of 1.1%. Even the much derided “no heat-no eat” Core Rate that excludes food and fuel was up 0.3% for the month. The 12-month CPI gain in the US is now 5%, and even a sustained pullback in oil prices won't cause consumer inflation to retrench much this year.
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Thursday, July 31, 2008
Fallacies and Lies of Bailouts as US Heads for Economic Armageddon / Economics / US Economy
By: Brady_Willett
While Elton John made us think of Norma Jean as a candle in the wind, the financial markets in 2008 bring to mind a stick of lit dynamite in a hurricane. Does an explosion loom before the unpredictable gusts finally dissipate? If so, gold may be the only answer… The Misnomer
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Thursday, July 31, 2008
Shocking Downward Revisions to US GDP From Growth to Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Tomorrow, the Nonfarm Payroll Numbers are out. I made my forecast last night ahead of today's numbers. My predictions can be found in July Payroll Playbook . Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Credit Losses Keep Doubling, $400bn, $800bn, $1600bn / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Hans_Wagner
Credit is the fuel that drives the economy. If you want to beat the market or want to learn to invest, it is important to have a good understanding of important factors that affect the economy. The large loan losses banks are experiencing are limiting their ability to provide credit to help companies grow. If companies cannot grow their business, the economy will continue to be weak. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 31, 2008
America's Financial Collapse- It's the Economy Stupid! / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Stathis
It's shocking to see so many who remain in denial about the economy, specifically the pundits. Until they see two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth (a ridiculously misleading metric – see my previous article “How Washington is Fooling You With GDP Data”) they refuse to admit we are in a recession. And the media acts as puppets, repeating these same lines without scrutinizing the data. Who do these people think they're kidding? If you're running a show designed to help investors, shouldn't you be ahead of the curve instead of behind it? Serving as broadcasters for inaccurate data that's been manipulated to fool the public does nothing to aid an audience looking for real investment guidance. Read full article... Read full article...