Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, June 13, 2008
China's Geopolitic Imperatives and its Current Economic Position / Economics / China
By: John_Mauldin
No matter where in the world I am, in South Africa, in Europe, in La Jolla, there's one question I get asked over and over, "What about China?" And small wonder. The increasing impact of China in the last generation is just staggering and seemingly accelerating every day. If you're in the market for oil, minerals, arable land, equities or debt, you're bidding against Chinese government-sponsored entities with a $1 trillion warchest. And the list of markets where China is a key player grows every day. Bottom line: whether you're filling up your gas tank or trading credit default swaps, China's decisions impact your pocket book.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Consumption and Investment Fallacy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gerard_Jackson
For years I have been stressing the media's lousy economics. For those readers who think I have been exaggerating the situation allow me to introduce you to Bernard Salt, a partner in the well known accounting firm of KPMG. According to Mr Salt
It was a no-brainer in the 1950s: half the working age population was not engaged in the paid workforce. Change based on the role of women was always going to transform our society over the course of a generation.
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Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Manipulated, Corrupted and Unreliable Government Data Points to Hyperinflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Stephen_Lendman
Walter "John" Williams thinks out of the box. He makes disquieting reading, but you won't find him in the mainstream. At least not often. He runs a "Shadow Government Statistics" site with an electronic by-subscription newsletter. Anyone can access some of his data and occasional special reports. They can also assess his reasoning. In his judgment, government data are manipulated, corrupted and unreliable. He's not alone thinking that. First, through technical changes over time in how data are collected and/or interpreted. The intent is to portray a more rosy scenario and ignore real world experiences of ordinary people. Calculating the CPI is an example:
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Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Inflationary Demand Destruction Delusion / Economics / Inflation
By: Captain_Hook
Demand destruction refers to the effect of a rising price on a good, service, or commodity, where a rising price has the increasing effect of curbing demand. Central planners live under the assumption the above condition set applies to commodities within current circumstances, which we categorize as quasi-hyperinflationary times at present. Here, the understanding is monetization efforts aside for definitional purposes; along with recognizing True Money Supply (TMS) growth rates have been contracting in the States, and nowhere near what could be even be considered high levels, the theory is lags associated with accelerated gains witnessed previously are still working through the system sufficiently to export reactionary inflation in emerging markets that reside on the very cusp of potential hyperinflationary conditions. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Friday's US Employment Report and the Stock Market / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Friday's reaction to the employment report was somewhat of a surprise, given that fewer job losses were “created”, however what spooked everyone was the big jump in the unemployment rate. The report left a sour taste in investor's mouths, given the good news from the merger front (Verizon and Alltel) as well as good numbers from Wal-Mart (the “main” recipient of the rebate checks). Energy prices were in full retreat earlier in the week, but that reversed with a vengeance by the end of the week, as oil prices rose by their largest daily amount ever.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
UK Producer Price Inflation Soars Suggesting Stagflationary Recession / Economics / Stagflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Producer Price inflation soared in May to 8.6% for the price of output of manufactured goods to levels not seen since the early 1980's stagflationary recession. The trend not only signals a halt to further rate cuts but increasingly the expectations are that despite sharply lower economic growth, UK interest rates will be forced higher as inflationary forces make themselves visible in the CPI data that currently stands at the Bank of England's upper limit of 3%. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 09, 2008
The Wealth Effect Goes into Reverse / Economics / Liquidity Bubble
By: Chris_Ciovacco
In our current global economic environment, the number of moving parts for the individual investor to track and attempt to analyze is often overwhelming. Without a systematic approach to the global asset markets, it is virtually impossible to discern the relative importance of an almost infinite number of inputs. While it is a tall order, we'll attempt to highlight the some of the key moving parts of the economic engine in terms of the possible long-term impact on your portfolio and purchasing power.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 09, 2008
UK Heads for Stagflation as Factory Price Inflation Soars to New Record / Economics / Inflation
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold closed at $895.50 in New York Friday and was up $23.30 and silver closed at $17.37 and was up 30 cents. In the New York Globex market gold subsequently rallied to $902.20 late Friday. Both traded sideways in Asia this morning prior to rallying higher in early European trading.The gas explosion in Western Australia will further curtail supply of gold from that part of the world. It has led to the loss of some 30% of the state's gas supplies and is already creating serious problems for Western Australia's massive gold mining industry and will curtail supply for months, rather than weeks.
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Sunday, June 08, 2008
Bernanke Cries "It's all China's Fault!" / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Whitney
He's at it again. Bernanke, that is. Thursday the Fed chief delivered a rambling 45 minute speech at the International Monetary Conference in Barcelona, Spain laying out all the reasons why the Federal Reserve is NOT responsible for the present crisis in the financial markets. Here's what he said: Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 06, 2008
Inflation One Year Ahead - A Look at the Inflation and the Consumer Price Index / Economics / Inflation
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The recent rise in inflation has not yet been properly captured by the variety of inflation indexes used by the market to assess the pricing environment. The publication of the April Consumer Price Index elicited howls of derision from the market due to the very dubious -2.0% decline in the price of gasoline suggested by the report. At the time, our reaction was that it did not pass the “laugh test” and that once the seasonal adjustments made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are “adjusted” we are quite confident that the actual increase in headline prices will be accurately accounted for and the increase in core prices that most individuals have observed will also work their way into the data. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 06, 2008
May Jobs: US Unemployment Skyrockets to 5.5% Confirming Recession / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Yahoo!Finance is reporting Unemployment rate jumps to 5.5 percent in May .
The nation's unemployment rate jumped to 5.5 percent in May — the biggest monthly rise since 1986 — as nervous employers cut 49,000 jobs. The latest snapshot of business conditions showed a deeply troubled economy, with dwindling job opportunities in a time of continuing hardship in the housing, credit and financial sectors.
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Friday, June 06, 2008
The Spin On Jobs Statistics- Non-Farm Payrolls Friday / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Given that it takes 150,000 jobs to keep up with birthrate, anything under 100,000 jobs is a weak showing. Numbers under 50,000 are actually pathetic. However, it's easy to put a positive spin on things when expectations are in the gutter.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 06, 2008
Ben Bernanke Soaking the Rich at Harvard / Economics / Money Supply
By: John_Browne
This week I watched Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke charm the rain soaked graduating class of Harvard, my Alma Mater. As he spoke, I was reminded of an anecdote that President Franklin Roosevelt was alleged to have made during the commencement speech he gave at Harvard in 1936. Amidst a similar downpour, Roosevelt apparently said, “Well, Harvard sure knows how to soak the rich!” Fittingly, Bernanke graduated from Harvard in 1975, and his current policies are doing just that. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
The Trillion Dollar Debt Countdown / Economics / US Debt
By: David_Vaughn
Has anyone forgotten the national debt? And I don't mean the yearly imbalance that merely makes up a fraction of the whole. We seem to discount this theme quite easily most of the time. Part of the reason for this is that we continue to add sand to a sand castle that is already too high and has begun to be buffeted by the waves. We have an election coming up that is probably the most important presidential election in years. In the past four decades there have been tremendous ideological shifts in political theory. Now long over due liberal trends and social changes are right on our horizon. In other words begin to look for even more government intervention in our lives.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
UK Economy GDP Growth Forecasts Continue to be Revised Lower for 2008 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The OECD, Inline with many economic forecasting organisations have in recent months revised UK growth forecasts lower, today the OECD announced that UK growth for 2008 is expected to be 1.8% against 2% in Dec 07, and growth for 2009 to fall to 1.4%.
The organisation cited the weakening housing market and the tight credit conditions for the the lower growth forecast and urged the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold to help curb rising inflation.
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Wednesday, June 04, 2008
US Living Standards and Productivity / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Boring as this might seem to some of our rightwing pundits, we can get no where in economic debate without the application of theory. Many of the questions that are popping up these days are linked to the alleged connection between productivity, unemployment and inflation. There are no links here in the functional sense. In a free market unemployment will not rise even where productivity is falling.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
Lies, Damn Lies, and Government Statistics / Economics / Recession
By: Dr_William_R_Swagell
“Every single release of late has afforded both bulls and bears the chance to grab onto data to support their view of the economy, but it does not do a whole lot for those in search of clarity.”
To those words by Richard Moody (chief economist Mission Residential) may we all say “Amen”.
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Tuesday, June 03, 2008
US Economy in Deflationary Death Spiral / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Whitney
Look around. The evidence of a withering economy is everywhere. In "good times" consumers shun the canned meat aisle altogether, but no more. Today, Spam sales are soaring; grocery stores can't keep it on the shelves. Everyone is looking for cheaper ways to feed their families. The Labor Dept. assures us that core-inflation is only 4 per cent, but everybody knows it's load of malarkey. Food prices are going through the roof. White bread is up 13 percent, bacon is up 7 percent and peanut butter is up 9 percent. Inflation is rampant and there's no end in sight. The dollar is closing in on the peso and working people are struggling just to get by. The bottom line is that more and more people in "the richest country on earth" are now surviving on processed pig-meat. That says it all. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 02, 2008
Are Subsistence Wages Killing The United States? / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
I received an interesting Email last week from Minyan "MC" who is concerned about globalization's effect on jobs and wages. Let's tune in to his thoughts: There is a mania in this country to slash wages to a subsistence level (or worse). This is a symptom of the greed and corporate cronyism that is killing the country.
The powers-that-be that run the US are determined to crush wages, even when they realize that people are doing without food, health insurance, etc. We keep hearing news stories that about 10% of our population doesn't have sufficient food? The root cause is the mania to cut wages and lay off workers.
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Monday, June 02, 2008
Betting on Biggs and other Economic Predictions / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_Petillo
Some folks would like to call these days an inflection point. But that would be a prediction. The markets are going up, down and sideways in an unpredictable way and yet we are still trying to divine some semblance of normal where normal may not exist.
Douglas Noël Adams, the late author of the classic Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy suggested that, "Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so." But in days like these, where experience seems to be as passé as our dominance on the global economy, who do you listen to?
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