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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Some Advice For Ben Bernanke on the State of the US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Tim_Iacono

Here are a few words of advice for current Fed chairman Ben Bernanke who will prognosticate on the state of the U.S. economy in the FOMC policy statement today.

First, start assigning blame - get political man! The next few months are probably going to be pretty rough and next year might be even worse, so start pointing your finger at the guy who is responsible for all of this.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Monetarism and the US economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Tom Nugent's article on the US economy and monetary policy inadvertently revealed the severe shortcomings of monetary debate in the US. ( Monetarism: Dead at Last? , National Review Online , 23 July 2007). Nugent refers to Wayne Angell, a former member of the Federal Reserve Board, who appeared on the Larry Kudlow show on CNBC , who said that the Fed was targeting the federal funds rate. What was really interesting was his comment that monetary growth merely responded to changes in the demand for money.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Wage rates, Immigration and Jobs / Economics / Immigration

By: Gerard_Jackson

On the other hand we have the opposing fallacy that immigrants steal jobs. In fact, back in July 2004 John Stone, former head of the Australian Treasury, accused illegal immigrants of stealing jobs from Australians. So which is it? The first fallacy actually rests on very important economic truth that too many economists ignore: so long as there is sufficient capital and land to employ people and the free market prevails persistent widespread unemployment cannot. What is missing, however, is the price of labour. I have no doubt that if the hourly wage rates for those agricultural jobs that Americans are said to look down their noses at were to jump to $30 there would be an abundance of applicants.

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Economics

Monday, August 06, 2007

Disturbing Trends 2007 - The US Dollar Under Siege / Economics / US Dollar

By: Michael_J_Kosares

dollar

A critical juncture for gold and the U.S. economy
from the author of
"The ABCs of Gold Investing:
How to Protect and Build Your Wealth with Gold"

_____________

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Economics

Friday, August 03, 2007

US Employment Numbers Don't Look Good / Economics / Financial Markets

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend up (+92,000) in July, and the unemployment rate (4.6 percent) was essentially unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment grew in several service-providing industries. Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Global Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply

By: Mike_Hewitt

This essay makes comparisons between the money supply of 26 selected economic areas and discusses the ratios between the value of official gold reserves to outstanding currency.

For the purposes of this essay, the Euro-Zone includes the thirteen countries that use the Euro currency: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain. All other economic areas are individual countries.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

No Worry about US Consumer Spending So Long As Jobs/Income Are Growing? / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

That's the rallying cry of the economic bulls. Aside from the fact that jobs and personal income are coincident indicators, not leading indicators, and that labor compensation as a percent of consumer spending tends to rise just before the onset of recessions (see Payroll Growth = Consumer Spending Growth?), will jobs and income growth alone be enough to sustain real consumption growth going forward? That is, with mortgage equity withdrawals drying up and corporate buybacks and private equity buyouts slowing down, suppose that consumer spending relative to disposable income reverts to its mean. What rate of growth in real consumer spending could we look forward to in 2007?

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Economics

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

The Morality of Economics: The Key Issue of the 21st Century / Economics / Social Issues

By: Richard_C_Cook

Since January 2007, Richard C Cook has published a series of articles on the urgent need for economic and monetary reform.

Some readers have commented on how distant these monetary reform recommendations are from current practice. The reason for this is simply that the recommendations derive from a starting point that is not customary.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Wealth Effect or Borrowing / Asset Sales Effect? / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

In the question-and-answer session following his semiannual monetary policy report to Congress last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke pooh-poohed the notion that mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW) had played much of a role in funding household spending in recent years. Rather, Chairman Bernanke, like most academics, cited the "wealth effect" as responsible for stimulating household spending.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Q2 US Real GDP Growth Forecast: Chicago Fed at 2.7%; Consensus at 3.2% / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Of course, the Chicago Fed does not release to the public its GDP forecasts. But it does publish an index called the National Activity Index (NAI), which is, in effect, a darned good coincident indicator of real GDP growth. The NAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of economic activity drawn from five broad categories:

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Economics

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Composition of the U.S. Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply

By: Mike_Hewitt

How much U.S. money is in circulation? Printed currency and coins amount to less than US$800 billion. This represents only a small portion of the total money supply. The following essay shows the composition of various monetary aggregates used by the Federal Reserves to define the total amount of money available.

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Economics

Monday, July 23, 2007

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson: The Coming Financial Crash Shows Need for Immediate Monetary Reform / Economics / Financial Crash

By: Richard_C_Cook

US Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr., has joined the chorus of those in high places who are warning of a major worldwide economic downturn.

Paulson was quoted at length in a July 23, 2007, article in Fortune by Rik Kirkland entitled, “The Greatest Economic Boom Ever: Enjoy It While It Lasts.” Paulson's remarks came in the context of assessing the ability of the highly-leveraged equity, hedge, and derivative markets to withstand the shocks to come. He told Fortune in an interview:

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Economics

Saturday, July 21, 2007

More Evidence of Spillover from US Housing Market to Consumer Sector / Economics / US Housing

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

We have been forecasting that the housing recession would have a negative knock-on effect on discretionary consumer spending. Six successive months of declining light motor vehicle sales is corroborating evidence of this. If J. D. Power has got its numbers correct, July is on course to mark the seventh consecutive month in which car and truck sales decline.

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Economics

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Chinese Money Supply - How Do You Say "Rube Goldberg" in Chinese? / Economics / China Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

China has an economic problem - inflation. When I speak of Chinese inflation, I am referring to what the People's Bank of China (PBOC, not to be confused with PB&J) is doing - creating massive amounts of credit "out of thin air." Chart 1 shows that the total assets on the PBOC's balance sheet grew by approximately 29% in the 12 months ended May. Although that is down from peak growth of 38% in the 12 months ended September 2005, 29% still is a sizeable increase in central bank credit creation.

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Economics

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Return Of The Gold Standard / Economics / Money Supply

By: James_West_2

We humans are remarkably committed to self delusion.

From the personal level to the most powerful government on earth, we contrive realities with distorted perspectives so we can execute ideas that would otherwise cause us to hesitate if we were to objectively and honestly consider their moral implications. The moral code is constantly being revised to accommodate current events.

World War I is a perfect example.

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Economics

Friday, July 20, 2007

Central Bankers - Stop! Or the Economy Gets It / Economics / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

"...If only consumers hadn't taken the world's central bankers at their word..."

WE ONLY have ourselves to blame. Consumers in the West, rich in credit ratings if not cash, shouldn't have borrowed and spent so much money when interest rates hit a half-a-century low in 2003.

Nor should we have continued to borrow and spend when the rate of interest slipped below the inflation rate – making debt pay as cash savings lost value – over the next two years.

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Economics

Thursday, July 19, 2007

Who Do We Owe and How Much? / Economics / US Debt

By: Mike_Hewitt

This essay takes an in-depth look at the magnitude and consequences of the large debt levels within the United States. Topics discussed include: composition of foreign and domestic holders of U.S. debt, consequences of the government borrowing from the Federal Reserve, and a look at the current U.S. housing market.

The National Debt

The national debt (also known as public debt) is money owed by the federal government. As the government represents the people, government debt can be seen as an indirect debt of the taxpayers. The U.S. government incurs debt by issuing treasuries (bills, notes and bonds).

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Economics

Saturday, July 14, 2007

Philly Fed President Plosser: Consumer Spending, Exports Are Cause for Optimism / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Really?
Light motor vehicle sales down for six consecutive months (see Chart 1) is cause for consumer spending optimism? Bed Bath & Beyond, Best Buy, Circuit City, Sears Holdings, Home Depot and West Marine recently issuing profit warnings are a cause for consumer spending optimism?

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Economics

Thursday, July 12, 2007

US Economy Nightmare Warnings! and How to Protect Yourself Now! / Economics / Financial Crash

By: Money_and_Markets

Larry Edelson writes: I hate to say it, but I believe the next five to six months will harbor nightmares for the U.S. economy so profound that they will impact each and every one of us.

Before I go any further, let me say that I'm not a gloom-and-doomer. Longer term, I am very optimistic about U.S. and global economic growth. I'm even optimistic on the U.S. real estate market. But I'm also a realist …

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Economics

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

The Crack-up Boom Series Part V, Introduction - It's Bigger Than Just the dollar! / Economics / Money Supply

By: Ty_Andros

For greater insight into our publication, have a look at the Overview of Tedbits . It helps current and potential subscribers understand our mission in serving you. It also gives a broad description of what's unfolding globally and what you can expect from Tedbits as a regular reader.

Crack-Up Boom Series Intro

The Crack Up Boom series is exploring the unfolding “Indirect Exchange” (as detailed by Ludvig Von Mises), that dollar holders will be using to exit their holdings now and eventually is will be followed by all holders of fiat currency holdings no matter which country is perpetrating the “crime” of confiscation of wealth through the printing and credit creation process that all such monetary schemes evolve into.

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