Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Will a Plunging Stock Market Send the Economy Into Recession? / Economics / Austrailia
By: Gerard_Jackson
So far this month the Australian share market has dropped by 10 per cent, sending some people into a panic and raising the spectre of recession. Let us begin by putting this in historical perspective. In October 1987 the Australian share market plunged by 50 per cent. This drove the economic commentariat to wail that the economy was heading into a deep recession.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 21, 2008
Is the US Economy Already in Recession? / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Figures from the Institute of Supply Management are painting a grim picture. Its PMI (performance manufacturing index) stood at 47.7 in December against 50.8 November. (Anything below 50 indicates a contraction). For the same period production fell from 51.9 to 47.3 while employment remained largely unchanged. Ordinarily this would be enough for anyone ' including me ' to declare the US economy in recession. Unfortunately the situation is not that clear because we have yet to learn what Bernanke will do in the near future.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Bush's Voodoo Stimulus Package - White House In Full Panic Mode! / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Whitney
The White House is now in full-panic mode. In fact, the falling stock market has the administration so worried that Bush will deliver a speech later today that will lay out the details of a “stimulus package” designed to rev-up flagging consumer spending. The desperation is palpable. Fed chairman Bernanke's appearance on Capital Hill on Thursday turned out to be a total bust. Bernanke was supposed to calm jittery investors with promises of rates cuts and easy credit. Instead, his gloomy predictions put the market into a tailspin sending the Dow Jone's down 306 points by day's end. Now it's up to Bush and Co. to pick up the pieces and try to restore confidence in Wall Street.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Credit Default Swaps: The Continuing Crisis and Big Story for 2008 / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
- Democrats Ready to Politicize the Fed
- More BLS BS
- Credit Default Swaps: The Continuing Crisis
- A Stimulating Political Package
- The Economy Continues to Weaken
- Europe, Phoenix, and My New Chair
After a wild week in the markets, there is so much to write about, it is hard to know where to start. The headline number says jobless claims fell 20,000. That would be good news, if it were true. Sometimes you need to look behind the curtain to see how these statistics are made. As we will see, claims were actually up by 26,000. I wrote in my annual 2008 predictions that the big story of the year would turn out to be credit default swaps and counter-party risk. I will admit to thinking it would take more than a few weeks for that to happen. And the Senate is hampering the ability of the Fed to work, and doing so for blatant political purposes, in an effort to reduce the independence of the Fed. There is that and a lot more to cover in what should be an interesting letter.
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Saturday, January 19, 2008
Bush Stimulus Plan - $500 Tax Rebate for Everyone! / Economics / Money Supply
By: Brent_Harmes
I couldn't believe it. I was sitting in the airport the other day waiting on my flight and CNN mentioned that the government is seriously considering helping our economy make it through this credit crunch by giving each of us a check for $500!
Here is a quote from The Associated Press about it.
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Friday, January 18, 2008
George Bush Begs Saudi's for Cheap Crude Oil - The Begging is Only the Beginning! / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
Begging for OilEarlier this week, news reports surfaced about how President Bush, during his recent trip to the Middle East urged the oil producing countries of that region to step up production to meet current market conditions. His plea, however, was less than well received. The Saudis, in effect, told Mr. Bush to get lost, saying “Oil production is controlled by the market”. I'll allow that this utterance is cloaked in ambiguity. It is worrisome, however, especially against the backdrop of persistently high oil prices. The Saudis have either an unwillingness or inability to ramp up production.
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Friday, January 18, 2008
US Congress Desperate Measures to Avoid a Recession / Economics / Recession
By: Peter_Schiff
For members of Congress desperate to avoid recession, the takeaway message that Fed Chairman Bernanke delivered in his testimony this week was that a successful stimulus package needs to be rapid and targeted. By this he meant that money would need to be delivered quickly to those individuals who would be most likely to spend, and withdrawn when and if the need for stimulus ebbs.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 17, 2008
US GDP Statistics : Can We Trust The BEA Data? / Economics / US Economy
By: Ronald_R_Cooke
Introduction In another life (circa 1962), I was an auditor for AT&T. Nothing spectacular. Mostly cash and property reviews. Then some business process analysis. It was my good fortune to have two older gentlemen as partners. They graciously decided to teach this green college kid how to be a good auditor. It was a great learning experience. One of the tricks they taught me was called the “reasonable test”. If the data under audit was within the parameters of like data from other audits, then it was reasonable to assume there were no problems of procedure or management. If, on the other hand, the data did not seem to make sense versus circumstantial criteria, then it would be reasonable to assume further audit investigation was warranted. This technique of measuring the quality of information has become a cornerstone of my work ever since. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
The Increasing Cycle of Decreasing Demand Hits Financial Markets and Real Estate / Economics / Deflation
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
The Economy & The Fat Kid
Credit-based economies constantly need to expand in order to service constantly increasing levels of debt. Central banks adjust the flow of credit to maintain the balance between economic expansion and economic contraction.
Then one day, a fat kid shows up at the playground. While everyone knows it's a private playground and admittance is strictly controlled, no one knows where the fat kid came from or how he got in. Nonetheless, the fat kid's there.
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Wednesday, January 16, 2008
The Financial Foundations of the American Century - Financial Tsunami Part II / Economics / US Economy
By: F_William_Engdahl
The ongoing and deepening global financial crisis, nominally triggered in July 2007 by an event involving a small German bank holding securitized assets backed by USA sub-prime real estate mortgages, can best be understood as an essential part of an historical process dating back to the end of the Second World War—the rise and decline of the American Century.
The American Century, proudly proclaimed by Time-Life founder and establishment insider, Henry Luce in a famous 1941 Life magazine editorial, was built on the preeminent role of New York banks and Wall Street investment banks which had by then clearly replaced the City of London as the center of gravity of global finance. Luce's American Century was to be built in a far more calculated manner than the British Empire it replaced.
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Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Sovereign Wealth Funds Threat to United States Economy / Economics / Sovereign Wealth Funds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) movement has begun to expand in a powerful manner, and will not go away. In fact, it will expand on a grand basis since foreign nations have had their fill of US Treasury Bonds, and see grand risks ahead for any US$-based investments.
The SWF fund movement is intended to pursue the two prime commodities, GOLD & CRUDE OIL, the premier financial anchor and commercial fuel in the increasingly upside down world. Several stories have emerged, on Chinese and Arab managed funds purchasing giant equity stakes on cash infusions for large crippled US banks. Regard the movement as creditor receivership in stages, as the mammoth credit masters for the US Economy over the last 30 years are slowly taking over in stages major US corporations, the latest stage focused upon bank bailouts. In the past few months, a total of $60 billion has been poured into the Western big banks, more with each passing week seemingly.
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Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Fed's Small Fixes for a Growing Economic Problem / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_Petillo
The economy has taken a serious turn since the first of the year. January has seen the Wilshire 5000 drop 4.9%, unemployment tick up, and write-downs and write-offs increase in size. Fortunately, the news is finally reaching the campaign trail. Problem is no one can quite agree on whether these problems are short-term or long, good or bad, recessionary or just simply the result of a poor calculation done months, perhaps years ago. So what happened when we turned the calendar?Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
US Economy and Bernanke's Superficial Understanding of Economics / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
At the beginning of the month the Fed sent out a press release in which it brought attention to "a string of large current account deficits" by the US. We also had Mr Bernanke grandly declaring: We stand ready to take substantive additional actions as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
The Bush $100 Billion Hyper-Inflationary Stimulus Package / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Whitney
In the next couple of weeks, George Bush will prove that the last 30 years of supply side, free market economics was nothing more than a overripe pile of horse manure. In fact, right now, the B-52s are being loaded with pallets-full of freshly-minted hundred dollar bills which will be air-dropped “from sea to shining sea” as soon as King George gives the nod.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 14, 2008
US Social Security Trust Fund Government Designed and Controlled Ponzi Scheme / Economics / US Economy
By: Steve_Selengut
As an investor, I've always wondered why Social Security is such a problem. What's so difficult about managing this particular Trust Fund, and why is it so different from other investment accounts that pay out a constant stream of income? The private sector does it routinely with defined benefit pension plans and fixed annuities, so what's the big deal? Is Social Security failing because it hasn't been invested soundly, or is there some other reason?Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 12, 2008
US Trade Deficit Reduction Reliant on Increased Savings and Reduced Consumption / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
- What Are They Thinking?
- The Reality of Trade Deficits
- Fair Tax Nonsense
- How to Create an Immigration Depression
- Stimulate the Economy by Cutting Spending?
- Tax Hikes to Help Us Grow?
In the past week, I have been in the car coming home late from work, with the presidential debates are on the radio. It is very discouraging to listen to what passes for economic literacy among the candidates. In reality, many candidates are espousing policies that are quite dangerous at worst, or simply misleading at best. Far too many in both parties tell a frustrated America what it wants to hear, rather than the economic reality. The Republicans have some of the worst offenders.
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Saturday, January 12, 2008
Gold Price Rise a Consquence of Inflationary Global Expansion Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply
By: Peter_Schiff
Holding onto its "all is well" bias like a terrified cowboy on an enraged bull, Wall Street has managed to convince itself, and much of the world, that inflation is a non-issue. When confronted with facts to the contrary, their rationalizations come fast and thick. Nowhere is this spin more pronounced than in their dismissal of the surging price of gold as a relevant indicator.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 11, 2008
Australian Prime Minister Should Ignore Demands for Price Controls / Economics / Austrailia
By: Gerard_Jackson
Now that we have wall-to-wall Labor Governments the question of price controls has once again been raised, particularly with respect to petrol. Although I do not believe for a moment that Prime Minister Rudd intends to imposed price controls I still think it is prudent to remind people that those who cry out for price controls either believe that the laws of supply and demand do not exist or that they are determined by institutional factors, meaning that they vary according to time and place. From this they conclude that prices can be fixed without any harm to the economy so long as account is take of the costs of production.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 11, 2008
Deflation Economic Time-bomb As US Moves Towards Recession / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Whitney
"Is there anyone who still does not understand that talk of 'inflation' by officialdom is just a red herring intended to distract us from the far more dangerous dragon of deflation?" Mike Shedlock; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
We are to about see how much George Bush really believes the “supply side” mumbo-jumbo he's been spouting for the last 7 years. Last week's Labor Department report confirmed that unemployment is on the rise (5%) and that corrective action will be required to avoid a long and painful recession. There's a good chance that the Chameleon in Chief will jettison his “trickle down” doctrine for more conventional Keynesian remedies like slashing interest rates, government programs, and tax relief to middle and low income people.
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Thursday, January 10, 2008
Central Banks Facing Stagflation - Bullish Gold, Currencies and Crude Oil / Economics / Inflation
By: Christopher_Laird
One of the main reasons gold is rising so much now is because central banks are facing stagflationary forces. Stagflation is a combination of economic stagnation with inflation. Central banks find it hard to lower interest rates because of inflation, and economic stagnation causes them to want to lower interest rates. This is very gold and oil bullish.
Many of the causes of gold's rise in the late 70's and 1980 are with us today. But let's first define stagflation:
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