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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, March 14, 2008

US CPI Inflation Falls to 4%- Flashes Deflation Warning to Commodity Bulls Towards 2008 End / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

US CPI Inflation came in flat for February, confounding consensus forecasts that called for a rise of 0.2%. Annualised CPI falls to 4% from 4.3% and is inline with my overall expectations as highlighted in the extensive article of 2nd March 08 - Credit Crisis Morphs Into Stagflation- Protect Your Wealth! Which concluded that deflationary forces would take hold towards the end of 2008 as illustrated by the graph below -

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Economics

Friday, March 14, 2008

Asian Emerging Economies Are Still Booming! / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLarry Edelson writes: It's 3:30 AM here in Bangkok as I write this edition of Money and Markets . Across the street from my apartment, four towers are rising toward the sky. A 52-story luxury condo development is under construction with crews working 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

It's hard to believe that the crane operators, now perched over the 22nd floor, can see what they are doing as they hoist up tons of rebar, bins full of cement, rolls of steel sheathing and stacks of glass.

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Economics

Friday, March 14, 2008

UK Trade Goods Data 2007- Exports Fell by 10%, Imports Rose by 2% / Economics / UK Economy

By: HMRC

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK Regional Trade in Goods estimates are released today, for the fourth quarter of 2007 .

Exports

•  Total value of UK exports for the 12 months ending December 2007 was £218,919m.

•  The total value of UK exports for the 12 months ending December 2007 fell by £24,902m (10 per cent) compared to the 12 months ending December 2006.

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Economics

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Patchy Nature of the Credit Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe strange thing about myths is that while some have their basis in truth, for the most part they suffer from a dearth of reality. The same is true about today's well promulgated credit crisis. First let me admit, there clearly is a crisis in certain areas of the credit markets. For instance, there is definitive evidence of duress for hedge funds that hold Credit Default Obligations, especially in leveraged portfolios. A crunch also exists for mortgage lending companies that must issue asset-backed commercial paper.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Japanese Economic Hard Landing Forecast for 2008 / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Dr_Krassimir_Petrov

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhile investment powerhouses like UBS barely lowered their 2008 growth forecast for Japan in late January down to 1.2%, their forecast is likely to prove overly optimistic. Even in late January, Morgan Stanley's respective forecast is 1.1%. IMF's forecast is 1.5%. So far, only Goldman Sacs has suggested that there is a probability that the Japanese economy may have slipped into a recession at the beginning of 2008. I believe that the Japanese economy will surprise on the downside with a recession during 2008 that may likely extend into 2009.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Bad Economics Caused Our Economies Current Account Problems / Economics / Austrailia

By: Gerard_Jackson

The current account deficit, rising prices and our deteriorating foreign debt situation has caused the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate from 7 per cent to 7.25 per cent. Bank assets are a useful guide to monetary policy. These fell by 36.25 per cent from May 2007 to January 2008. These figures suggest that the RBA means business and will continue to raise rates until it brings spending under 'control'. Unfortunately this cannot be done without bringing the economy to a grinding halt. So how did we arrive to this situation?

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Economics

Monday, March 10, 2008

Can Supply-side Economics Save the US Economy from the Boom Bust Cycle? / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCurrent trends in the US economy are worrying a lot of people -- and so they should. Unfortunately worrying never solved any problems, only action can do that. But in order to solve a problem once must first identify it. Remember that economic trends are the product of deeper forces. For instance, a continual rise in productivity year after year is the fruit of capital accumulation increasing faster than the population. On the other hand, the so-called boom-bust cycle is the result of bad economics.

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Economics

Sunday, March 09, 2008

The US Economies Path to Recession / Economics / Recession

By: Ronald_R_Cooke

In March of 2007, I predicted America would have a recession before the end of 2008. (see Warning: Recession Ahead at http://www.theculturaleconomist blog.blogspot.com/ . At that point in time, my thoughts were greeted with a certain amount of – shall we say – skepticism.  Well.  Here we are one year later.  It would appear the number of skeptics has decreased.

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Economics

Saturday, March 08, 2008

Deflating Housing and Credit Bubbles Will Lead to DisInflation / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: John_Mauldin

  • Best Financial Markets Analysis Article The BS from the BLS
  • 2,500,000 "Lost Jobs" and Counting
  • Taking a Long-Term Perspective
  • Leverage in Reverse Gear
  • What's That Hissing Sound?

The official number for employment suggested a loss of 63,000 jobs. But could it have been more like 200,000? And I will make a case for 2,000,000 lost jobs last month. This week we will take a look at the confusing labor-market picture in the US. We will also look at the debate over the money supply. Is the Fed increasing the money supply at a reckless rate, fueling inflation fears down the road? All this and a lot more as we look at how the recession in affecting everyone and everything, from individuals to large businesses. (The letter will print a little long, but there are a lot of charts.)

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Economics

Saturday, March 08, 2008

Post Bubble America Heading for Deepest Recession Since the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMarket conditions are the worst anyone in this industry can ever remember. I don't think anyone has a recollection of a total disappearance in liquidity...There are billion of dollars worth of assets out there for which there is just no market.” Alain Grisay, chief executive officer of London-based F&C Asset Management Plc; Bloomberg News

The hurricane that began with subprime mortgages, has swept through the credit markets wreaking havoc on municipal bonds, hedge funds, complex structured investments, and agency debt (Fannie Mae). Now the first gusts from the Force-5 gale are touching down in the real economy where the damage is expected to be widespread.

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Economics

Friday, March 07, 2008

US Dollar-Gold: A Perfect Hyper-Stagflationary Storm / Economics / Stagflation

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe title should really be “Psychology of 1000-20-100” to give respect to the major signpost price targets. The $1000 gold target is within reach. The $20 silver target has been breached. The $100 crude oil price has been breached. Before long, all three price levels will serve as support. When a gold target of $1000 was proposed three to four years ago, most people dominated (or bound) by conventional thinking dismissed such talk as silly, irresponsible, even ludicrous. Not any more! The same goes for silver and crude oil with their respective distant price targets, each attained. Profound market psychology is in the process of changing. Many new wrong analyses will come to the table, like so many casseroles containing rancid meat and rotten vegetables as ingredients. They will maintain that now these three goals have been met, the great sell off can begin. They will be dead wrong.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Eurozone Economy Heading for Hard Landing- Economic Forecast 2008 / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Dr_Krassimir_Petrov

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic reality will likely prove forecasts of major international institutions about Europe's 2008 growth prospects wrong. So, let us first see what they think; then we will see what I think and why.

A number of major institutions have provided their 2008 Eurozone economic forecast. Interestingly, many of them just recently (December 2007) revised down their forecasts. Here is a quick survey: 2.1% by IMF – revised its 2008 growth forecast for the Eurozone down from 2.5%; 1.9% by OECD; 2.0% by ECB, the midpoint of their range, down from previous midpoint of 2.3%; 2.0% by EU Commission; 1.8% by ING Financial Markets. 

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Economics

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Why the United States Will Go Into Recession / Economics / Recession

By: Gerard_Jackson

If my email is anything to go by, there are a lot of worried and confused people out there. Basically most want to know why if the US economy is going to slide into recession. Of course it will. The question is when. I have to exercise caution here because I haven't had the time during the last couple of weeks to take a much closer look at the economic trends. Since Bush won the 2000 election the media has done nothing but report economic doom. For them, predicting a recession is bit like predicting rain a few weeks hence. They one will eventually develop, they just hope Bush is still president when this happens.

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Economics

Monday, March 03, 2008

Kings of Denial: What Bush and Bernanke are NOT telling you about the Economy ... / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Weiss writes: Never underestimate the capacity of politicians and bureaucrats to trap themselves into a pattern of denial.

That's what Fed Chairman Greenspan did in the early 2000s, even while he was helping to create the greatest housing bubble of all time.

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Economics

Saturday, March 01, 2008

Stagflation and the Fed- Damn the Inflation Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead! / Economics / Stagflation

By: John_Mauldin

  • Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHow Do You Spell Stagflation?
  • Memo from the Fed: Inflation? What Inflation?
  • The Fed Will Cut and Cut Again
  • Damn the Inflation Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead!
  • Apple, Sprint, AT&T, and Going to the Dark Side

This week's topic was inspired by a discussion I had with George Friedman of Stratfor fame last night. He was suggesting the recession would be short and steep, and I of course think it is going to be shallow and with a long, protracted, and slow Muddle Through recovery. And it all hinges on how the Fed thinks about inflation.

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Economics

Friday, February 29, 2008

Tax Rebate 2008 - United States Congress Resorts to Trickle-Up Irrationality / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Roman poet Juvenal used the term ‘bread and circuses' to characterize palliative measures taken by the imperial Roman government to lure the populace into a state of blissful ignorance. This blissful ignorance comes at the expense of the solution of long-term societal problems, and arguably was a significant component of the end of the Empire.

Charles Fourier described his economic pinnacle a bit differently, opining that the oceans would turn to lemonade and roasted chickens would fly into our mouths. He used this amazing statement to describe a utopian socialism where the government was the ultimate provider.

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Economics

Thursday, February 28, 2008

What if Conventional Wisdom On Economic Growth and Consumer Spending Is Wrong? / Economics / US Economy

By: Tim_Iacono

There it was, right in the middle of the front page of yesterday's Wall Street Journal about four paragraphs down in the lead story titled " Decline in Home Prices Accelerates " - more evidence that the economy as we know it could be fundamentally flawed, yet you'd never get a hint of that even from reading one of the the world's finest business publication.

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Economics

Thursday, February 28, 2008

US Money Supply Growth? Look to China / Economics / Money Supply

By: Chris_Galakoutis

Like the earmark hidden so deep inside a new appropriations bill committee report that it takes a magnifying glass to find, so too the lengths we apparently need to go in figuring out the degree of money supply growth in the US.

But is it really such a mystery?

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Economics

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Bernanke's Mission Impossible- To Boost the Economy To Win the Election / Economics / US Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBen Bernanke's Mission Impossible is to deliver a favorable economic climate conducive towards a Republican election victory in November 2008,

The mission requires the US Fed to -

  • abandon the defense of the dollar,
  • to abandon the fight against inflation,
  • to prop up the ailing banking system by as much money as is required (money supply),
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Economics

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

How to Grow Your Investments in an Inflationary Environment / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTony Sagami writes: I got my first taste of inflation in 1973, shortly after I got my driver's license.

Gasoline was 25 cents a gallon when I first started driving, and I was busy enjoying the freedom and independence that an automobile gives a teenage boy.

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