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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Sunday, September 19, 2010

UK Government Stealth Debt Default Continues at Minimum Rate of 3% per Year / Economics / UK Debt

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis article is part of a series towards an updated UK interest rate trend forecast. The UK government continues to stealth default on its government debt at the minimum rate of 3% per annum, a price that is being paid for by all workers and savers. The population of Britain has been successfully conditioned by successive governments deploying the pseudo science of economics that appears to exist purely to enable governments to psychologically manage the expectations of their populations such as coming to believe that the stealth sovereign debt default trend is good for them.

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Economics

Saturday, September 18, 2010

The Chances of a Double Dip Economic Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI am on a plane (yet again) from Zurich to Mallorca, where I will meet with my European and South American partners, have some fun, and relax before heading to Denmark and London. With the mad rush to finish my book (more on that later) and a hectic schedule this week, I have not had time to write a letter. But never fear, I leave you in the best of hands. Dr. Gary Shilling graciously agreed to condense his September letter, where he looks at the risk of another recession in the US.

I look forward at the beginning of each month to getting Gary's latest letter. I often print it out and walk away from my desk to spend some quality time reading his thoughts. He is one of my "must-read" analysts. I always learn something quite useful and insightful. I am grateful that he has let me share this with you.

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Economics

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Economics vs. Fakeonomics, Free Trade Skepticism / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Ian_Fletcher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe skeptics of free trade are used to being told, “You don’t understand economics.” In fact, one major reason I wrote the book Free Trade Doesn’t Work was simply to expose, once and for all, that there do exist extremely serious and intellectually reputable arguments, within the confines of accepted mainstream economics, which question free trade. And indeed they exist.

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Economics

Friday, September 17, 2010

The Long Road to Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: David_Galland

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report writes: Last week the government released the latest unemployment data. Bloomberg, always ready to roll up the sleeves to help its friends in government (get reelected), was running a headline that “Companies in U.S. Added 67,000 Jobs in August.”

While I haven’t had time to go through the minutiae of the report, I find myself scratching my head at Mr. Market’s rather positive reaction to the report, given the bullet points:

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Economics

Friday, September 17, 2010

Does the U.S. Economy Need Another Economic Stimulus Package? / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: Frank_Shostak

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDespite the massive fiscal stimulus package of nearly $800 billion approved by Congress early last year and trillions of dollars pumped by the Fed, the rally in various key economic data seems to be coming to an end.

After falling to 32.5 in December 2008, the ISM manufacturing index peaked at 60.4 in April of this this year.

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Economics

Friday, September 17, 2010

H.G. Wells's Socialist Critique of Capitalism / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePaul A. Cantor writes: "One might wonder whether these intellectuals are not sometimes inspired by resentment that they, knowing better what ought to be done, are paid so much less than those whose instructions and activities in fact guide practical affairs. Such literary interpreters of scientific and technological advance, of which H.G. Wells, because of the unusually high quality of his work, would be an excellent example, have done far more to spread the socialist ideal of a centrally directed economy in which each is assigned his due share than have the real scientists from whom they have cadged many of their notions." —Friedrich Hayek, The Fatal Conceit

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Economics

Friday, September 17, 2010

Brazil's Debt Crisis, if it Does Not Defend Itself Against Financialization / Economics / Brazil

By: Michael_Hudson

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe post-1945 mode of global integration has outlived its early promise. It has become exploitative rather than supportive of capital investment, public infrastructure and living standards.

In the sphere of trade, countries need to rebuild their self-sufficiency in food grains and other basic needs. In the financial sphere, the ability of banks to create credit (loans) at almost no cost on their computer keyboards has led North America and Europe to become debt ridden, and now seeks to move into Brazil and other BRIC countries by financing buyouts or lending against their natural resources, real estate, basic infrastructure and industry. Speculators, arbitrageurs and financial institutions using “free money” see these economies as easy pickings. But by obliging countries to defend themselves financially, their predatory credit creation is ending the era of free capital movements.

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Economics

Friday, September 17, 2010

Japan’s Economic Problem Is Bigger Than Yen / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Dian_L_Chu

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter much speculation and many flying rumors, Japanese government stepped in on Wednesday, Sep. 15 and intervened--sell yen, buy dollar--for the first time in six years. The yen had risen about 10% against the dollar this year, and just reached yet another new 15-year high against the US dollar, an eight-year high against the euro, on Tuesday, Sep. 14.

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Economics

Friday, September 17, 2010

John’s Economic Worldview / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Doug_Wakefield

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday, we are faced with a period in world history of unprecedented change. Carl Jung, who worked with Sigmund Freud and is known today for his work in humanistic-existential psychology, believed that man perceived change as “death”. Dr. Janice Dorn, who has coached hundreds of professional traders since the mid ‘90s, stated to me in an interview for my December 2006 newsletter entitled Mindgames, that we avoid change because “it is incredibly difficult to shift paradigms, which of course is the way in which we perceived the world.”

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Economics

Thursday, September 16, 2010

The European Banking Crisis Next Phase, Greek Debt Default Inevitable / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe European banks are still in deep trouble. They are being protected only by the ability of the politicians of the PIIGS to persuade the public that they will be able to maintain interest payments in the near term. Investors care nothing about long-term prospects. They assume that they can sell bad bonds to the next group of naïve investors. Each group assumes that those who follow will be suckers. They regard themselves as sophisticated investors who know what will happen and who will be able to unload the bonds on really stupid investors.

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Economics

Thursday, September 16, 2010

When Japan's Debt Ridden Economy Collapses / Economics / Japan Economy

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOnly a partisan two-bit hack economist/liberal rag columnist from an Ivy League University with a Nobel Prize could look at the following two charts and conclude that the Japanese Government failed to revive the Japanese economy over the last twenty years because they spent far too little on fiscal stimulus. Japanese government debt as a percentage of GDP was 52% in 1989, prior to their real estate and stock market crash. Today it stands at 200% of GDP. Current budget projections show the debt reaching 250% of GDP by 2015.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

U.S. Economy Debt Crisis, the Smoking Ruin Solution / Economics / US Debt

By: David_Galland

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research writes: Just last week, it was reported that the turnout for the Democratic primary was the lowest in 80 years. While the Republicans are clearly energized by their concerns about the direction the Democrats are taking the country in, the Democrats themselves seem to have decided to forgo the voting process, perhaps in favor of a refreshing nap.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Economic Thought in Ancient Greece / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJesús Huerta de Soto writes: The intellectual odyssey that laid the foundations for Western civilization began in classical Greece. Unfortunately, Greek thinkers failed in their attempt to grasp the essential principles of the spontaneous market order and of the dynamic process of social cooperation which surrounded them. While we must acknowledge the important Greek contributions in the areas of epistemology, logic, ethics, and even the conception of natural law, the Greeks failed miserably to see the need for the development of a discipline, economic science, devoted to the study of the spontaneous processes of social cooperation that comprise the market.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Investors Keep Eye on Thailand Asian Economic Tiger / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Money_Morning

Jon D. Markman writes: Last week we talked about Singapore and Thailand - two Asian economies that are quietly taking off. Today I want to add to those thoughts with a few more key points that opportunistic U.S. investors should know about Thailand, in particular.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

UK Economy Hovers On The Edge As Scholars Debate War And Terrorism / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: Danny_Schechter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLONDON: The British Capital pretty much looked like it did the last time I was here except for all the closed stores and businesses I passed on the way to the War and Media Conference that brought me here.

I am not sure what it will look like the next time I come because the new Tory government is preparing to slash 40% of public funding in an austerity move which is certain to destroy thousands of jobs and inflict pain on the poor and middle class.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

UK CPI Inflation Stuck at 3.1% Against Bank of England's Forecast for 1.6% / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK inflation for August 2010 was unchanged at CPI 3.1%, remaining stubbornly above the Bank of England's upper limit of 3% and target of 2%, despite virtually 9 months of mantra from the Governor, Mervyn King that high inflation was ALWAYS just temporary and imminently expected to fall to below the 2% target. The more recognised RPI (real inflation) measure dipped marginally from 4.8% to 4.7% and which compares against average pay rises of 2% which illustrates the squeeze that ordinary people are experiencing especially as taxes rise and state services are cut. The academic economists that populate the mainstream press were again caught off guard as expectations were for CPI to fall to 2.8%, just as they have been caught off guard by high inflation EVERY month for the whole of 2010.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

The Hyperinflation Mirage / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed can create as much money as it likes without any risk of inflation provided the money is tucked away where no one can spend it. And this, in fact, is what the Fed has done. They have exchanged $1.7 trillion in reserves for non performing loans and mortgage-backed securities with the banks. But the banks loan book continues to shrink. In other words, the Fed has increased the money supply, but in real terms, the money supply has shrunk. Thus, the Fed's so called quantitative easing (QE) program has failed to stimulate spending or lead to a credit expansion. Had the Fed chosen to take the $1.7 trillion and bury it in a hole on the White House lawn, the effect would have been exactly the same.

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Economics

Monday, September 13, 2010

Hyperinflation Against Deflation Debate / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOver the past few weeks, many people have asked me to comment on John Hussman's August 23, 2010 post Why Quantitative Easing is Likely to Trigger a Collapse of the U.S. Dollar.

Most wanted to know how that article changed my view regarding deflation. It didn't.

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Economics

Monday, September 13, 2010

China Economy Booms as Farmers Get Access to Credit / Economics / China Economy

By: Shae_Smith

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe second stage to the booming Chinese economy is about to begin.

And many of the country's farmers, with little more than shacks and eight kids to feed are going to be the driving force behind it.

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Economics

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Where Krugman Went Wrong on Economic Stimulus / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Professor_Emeritus

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePaul Krugman, writing in The New York Times on September 5 under the title "1938 in 2010", chastizes president Obama's economists once more for doing what they have promised not to do: to repeat the mistakes of president Roosevelt's economists in 1937 in pulling back fiscal stimulus too soon. According to Krugman, while president Obama's policies have limited the damage from the financial crisis to the economy, they have been too timid in opening the spigots to make money flow, as shown by levels of unemployment that is still disastrously high and increasing. He advocates applying more stimulus, nay, a burst of deficit-financing of the same order of magnitudes as that during World War II, which can amount to roughly twice the value of GDP, or $30 trillion.

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