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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, June 19, 2010

Deficits and Economic Growth, GDP = C + I + G + (X-M) / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"Everyone" is upset with the level of fiscal deficits being run by nearly every developed country. And with much justification. The levels of fiscal deficits are unsustainable and threaten to bring many countries to the desperate situation that Greece now finds itself in. We must balance the budget is the cry of fiscal conservatives. But there are unseen consequences in moving both too fast or too slow in the effort to get the deficits under control. Today we look at them as we explore what a fine mess we have gotten ourselves into. (I am working without internet today so the letter will be shorter with fewer references than normal.)

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Economics

Saturday, June 19, 2010

Economic Depression Solutions, Krugman vs. Greenspan / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCourtesy of Calculated Risk here are a pair of articles, one from Krugman and another from Greenspan on the limits of debt.

That ’30s Feeling

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Economics

Friday, June 18, 2010

Talk of Double-Dip Recession No Longer Crazy? / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Sy_Harding

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJust a month or two ago opinions that the serious recession that ended in the last quarter of last year, will return in a double-dip later this year were blown off as crazy.

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Economics

Friday, June 18, 2010

The Next Catastrophic Bubble to Pop Will Be Private Sector Debt / Economics / US Debt

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMuch is said about the propensity of USA to pile on public debt to try and right the wrongs of the moronic lenders of yester-year ….and the risks that entails, but private sector debt is a much bigger “Elephant” in the Jacuzzi than public sector debt.

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Economics

Friday, June 18, 2010

Sovereign Crisis from Economic Stimulus to Debt Austerity Snowball Effect / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: Mike_Larson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA blockbuster draft report from the European Commission saw the light of day recently, thanks to some reporting from Bloomberg. It highlights an incredibly dangerous Catch-22 facing many sovereign nations — the “Snowball Scenario.”

Let me give you an example how this works …

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Economics

Friday, June 18, 2010

Trade Cycle Impact on the Market Economy / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe popularity of inflation and credit expansion, the ultimate source of the repeated attempts to render people prosperous by credit expansion, and thus the cause of the cyclical fluctuations of business, manifests itself clearly in the customary terminology. The boom is called good business, prosperity, and upswing. Its unavoidable aftermath, the readjustment of conditions to the real data of the market, is called crisis, slump, bad business, depression. People rebel against the insight that the disturbing element is to be seen in the malinvestment and the overconsumption of the boom period and that such an artificially induced boom is doomed. They are looking for the philosophers' stone to make it last.

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Economics

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Chinese Workers Force the Issue / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Browne

Neeraj Chaudhary writes: It's starting to look like Chinese labor has had enough. Led by workers at the Honda Motors plant in Zhangshan, and perhaps spurred by the suicides of ten workers this year at Foxconn Technology (a supplier to high technology companies such as Apple, Dell, and Hewlett-Packard), Chinese factory workers and other laborers across the country are going on strike. In so doing, these workers are defying the orders of their government-run unions and risking dismissal by their employers. I believe that this monumental step in the development of China's economy will result in a positive outcome. From an international perspective, these strikes may do more than improve working conditions in Chinese factories; they may, in fact, force a currency reform (long-delayed by the Chinese Communist Party) that will have serious implications for the global economy.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

United States Construction Industry in Death Spiral / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: JD_Rosendahl

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHow bad are things in the construction industry? Worse than many really know as Housing Starts in U.S. Fell to a 593,000 Pace in May

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Economics

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

As the Stimulus Fades U.S. Economy and Stock Market Loses Steam / Economics / US Economy

By: Claus_Vogt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOver the past two years, we’ve seen the largest stimulus policies the world has ever produced.

As a result, sovereign debt and central banks’ balance sheet holdings have gone through the roof!

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Economics

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

The U.S. Economic Recovery is on Cruise Control / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJon D. Markman writes: Assessing the U.S. economic recovery right now is a bit like buying a used car: Although it sure looks good, you can't help but wonder what's really going on under the hood.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

The Inflation Mega-Trend Continues With UK CPI 3.4%, RPI 5.1% / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAnother month and another release of UK inflation data at far above the Bank of England's target of 2% and above the upper limit of the Banks 1% to 3% range by reporting CPI of +3.4% for May. Thus the BoE Governor, Mervyn King will write another letter to repeat that the high rate of inflation is just "temporary", though when does "temporary" high inflation stop being temporary? 6 months? a year? 2 years? as the country sleep walks into stagflation with all of the consequences for wage earners and savers.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

The U.S. Federal Government Debt and Deficit - Congressman, Heal Thyself! / Economics / US Debt

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn one of this past Sunday's morning political talk shows, I heard a congressman say that the runaway federal government spending had to stop. Congressman, sir, although the spending continues to increase, the rate of growth in that spending has slowed enormously. In the 12 months ended May 2010, the accumulated spending by the federal government totaled $3.437 trillion, enough to keep the late Senator Dirksen spinning in his grave for near eternity. Although an admittedly high level, this 12-month accumulated total federal spending was only 2.6% higher than the 12-month accumulated total federal spending for May 2009 (see Chart 1).

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Economics

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

High UK Inflation Continues to Punish Savers With Negtive Real Interest Rates / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyFacts

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInflation figures released today show that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has fallen marginally to 3.40%, still way above the Government’s 2% target.

But a possible VAT increase in next week’s emergency Budget could stunt any longer term reductions.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Inflation Corroded Copper Coins / Economics / Inflation

By: LewRockwell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRichard Daughty writes: Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) Phil S. sent an article from the Globe and Mail where I learned that inflation in Canada has been so persistently corrosive over the years that, like in America, "it now costs the Royal Canadian Mint more than a penny to make a penny, and because of penny 'hoarding' by Canadians, the mint has to keep making more." Hahaha! "Hoarding"? Hahahaha!

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Economics

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Government Quest to Buy Inflation, Print Baby Print / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week I thought I would give you an Outside the Box with a more European flavor, as I am in Tuscany at the moment and on to Paris later this week and then back here for a working weekend with partners. Life is tough. :-)

Dylan Grice of Societe Generale (based in London) is fast becoming one of my favorite writers. This thought-provoking piece makes us meditate on whether central banks will print money in response to the fiscal crisis in the developed world countries. I am not certain that all central banks will print with abandon, BUT we need to think about what happens if they do.

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Economics

Monday, June 14, 2010

Can China Save the World Economy? / Economics / China Economy

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNope. No chance.

For starters, let’s look at the basic numbers. China’s GDP is now $4.3 trillion, making it the fourth largest economy in the world. However, there’s a HUGE drop off from the first two economies (Europe $16.4 trillion and the US $14.2 trillion) to the third and fourth (Japan $5.0 trillion and China $4.3 trillion). 

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Economics

Monday, June 14, 2010

U.S. Economy Slows as States Lose Federal Stimulus Funds / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor only the second time in 50 years, state budget cuts will act as a fiscal drag on GDP as noted by Bloomberg in Economy in U.S. Slows as States Lose Federal Stimulus Funds.

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Economics

Monday, June 14, 2010

Deflation Scare Dead Ahead / Economics / Deflation

By: Captain_Hook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAccording to John Williams of shadowstats.com, although the Employment Report to be released this Friday will appear robust on the surface, May payrolls could contract net of the temporary census boost, setting up a buy the rumor sell the news trade in the stock market. So this, combined with positive seasonality and the fact stocks are technically oversold on a short-term basis suggests gains should be expected into Friday, or Monday at the latest, however afterwards a resumption of the downtrend established over the past few weeks should return, potentially yielding significantly lower prices. Heaven knows the fundamentals support such a view, and have for some time, but now we also have bearish speculators exhausted as evidenced in falling US index open interest put / call ratios, where the bureaucracy’s price managers are unable to squeeze our faulty and fraudulent stock markets higher anymore.

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Economics

Monday, June 14, 2010

Economic Stimulus Sovereign Debt Crisis End Game / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Martin_D_Weiss

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAnyone not blinded by greed can plainly see the sick cycle we’re in:

First, the government helps create a great asset bubble.

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Economics

Monday, June 14, 2010

U.S. Economy Heading For the Rocks? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf you read Reuters, Associated Press and the rest of the phony news outlets the US economy is on the mend and it's only a matter of time before happy days are here again. If you are one of the unemployed or underemployed things are indeed gloomy. And no wonder. The Wall Street Journal reports that in the first quarter not one venture-backed company went public. This hasn't happened since 1980. Adding to the economy's woes we find that of the 431,000 non-farm jobs created last month a mere 41,000 was in the private sector, less than 10 per cent. To top it off, manufacturing also started to slow.

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