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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Japan Big Bank QE, Weakening Yen to Inflate Economy and Stocks / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Gary_Dorsch

“By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. And not one man in a million will detect the theft,” John Maynard Keynes wrote in 1920.

On Dec 12th, a shadowy group of political lackeys, voted 11-1 to launch what’s popularly dubbed as “Infinity QE-4,” – the Federal Reserve’s most radical scheme ever, that’s designed to enable the US-government to continue borrowing as much as $1-trillion per year, for the next several years, if necessary, in order to finance the burgeoning US-welfare state. US-lawmakers are negotiating over the details of the so-called “fiscal cliff,” but are simply nibbling at the edges of $1-trillion budget deficits. Yet US-politicians from both sides of the isle, believe they can stave off significant tax hikes and spending cuts, without having to pay a penalty of sharply higher interest rates, which normally follows such fiscal recklessness.

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Economics

Thursday, December 20, 2012

End of the Debt Supercycle and a Coming Massive Devaluation of the Yen ... / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: Mike_Shedlock

... Most Difficult Time to Invest; The Belief Bubble

Late last month, Kyle Bass, managing partner of Hayman Capital, shared his thoughts in a video at the University of Virginia Darden School of Business Investing Conference with Professor Ken Eades.

It is a fantastic interview that echoes many of the things I have been saying about Japan for quite some time.

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Economics

Thursday, December 20, 2012

The Coming China Economic Crisis / Economics / China Economy

By: Clif_Droke

When Bert Dohmen talks, smart investors listen.

In 2007 when most investment analysts and economists were downplaying the developing credit market troubles, Bert warned investors that the probability was very high that the troubles would escalate into full-blown crisis and would produce a crash of historic proportions. He chronicled the developing credit crisis in the pages of his newsletter and also published a book in early 2012 entitled, The Coming China Crisis, which provided his insightful views on the emerging crisis in depth.

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Economics

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Economic Signs That Deflation is Far From Over / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

The federal government defines the Producer Price Index (PPI) as "the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output."

With help from the Federal Reserve's massive inflationary policies, the PPI has climbed even as the economy began to fall in 2008-09.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Bank of England Inflation Fraud Holds Steady at CPI 2.7%, RPI 3%, and Real 3.9% / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The mainstream press played its part in perpetuating the Government's debt / money printing arm's (Bank of England) continuing inflation fraud with matter of fact coverage of today's CPI inflation rate holding steady at 2.7%. The reality is that the Inflation fraud is at the very core of why the general population is continually forced to work ever harder and to accumulate ever greater amounts of debt (slavery) all to just stand still in terms of being able to cope with the real cost of living increases that are NOT reflected by official CPI.

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Economics

Sunday, December 16, 2012

U.S. Boomer Demographics and the Unemployment Rate / Economics / Demographics

By: Mike_Shedlock

A week ago in Startling Look at Job Demographics by Age I posted the following chart made with data that I downloaded from the St. Louis Fed.

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Economics

Saturday, December 15, 2012

What Inflation Means For You: Inside the Consumer Price Index CPI / Economics / Inflation

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short. The Fed justified a previous round of quantitative easing “to promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate” (full text). In effect, the Fed has been trying to increase inflation, operating at the macro level. But what does an increase in inflation mean at the micro level — specifically to your household?

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Economics

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Fed Policy of Phony Economic Growth Will Destroy the U.S. Dollar / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

By upping the ante once again in its gamble to revive the lethargic economy through monetary action, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee is now compelling the rest of us to buy into a game that we may not be able to afford. At his press conference this week, Fed Chairman Bernanke explained how the easiest policy stance in Fed history has just gotten that much easier. First it gave us zero interest rates, then QEs I and II, Operation Twist, and finally "unlimited" QE3.

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Economics

Thursday, December 13, 2012

U.S. Economy, We Can Ignore Reality! / Economics / US Economy

By: DeviantInvestor

“We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand

With apologies to Ayn Rand, let’s explore some examples of ignoring reality.

We can ignore the (U.S. government) deficit, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring the deficit. If the deficit increases each year, the total debt will soon be so out of control that it is unpayable. Oops, the United States is there now. The consequences that we cannot ignore are:

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Economics

Thursday, December 13, 2012

U.S. Unemployment, What if the BLS Labor Force Participation Rate Projections Are Wrong? / Economics / Unemployment

By: Mike_Shedlock

On Monday, my "question of the day" was What will the unemployment rate look like for the rest of the decade?

Click on the above link to see an interactive map that lets you select the rate of job growth up to January of 2020.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

BlackRock's Fink: Very Bullish on US Economy 2013 / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, guest hosted Bloomberg TV's "Market Makers" with Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle today. Fink said that he's "very bullish" on the United States and "our corporations are in fabulous shape with $1.7 trillion in cash...I don't believe you're going to see that much default risk in the next few years."

Fink also said that "95% of the people that are talking about [the fiscal cliff] have no clue" and "I think we will find a solution."

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Economics

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Global Employment Condition Gives Central Banks More Ammo / Economics / Employment

By: Michael_Pento

The prevailing wisdom currently on Wall Street is that gold and commodity stocks will go nowhere next year because interest rates are about to rise in real terms. For instance, last week Goldman Sachs cut its 12-month gold-price forecast by 7.2%. The precious metal "is near an inflection point," according to the firm. And while the metal may rally slightly in 2013, a growing U.S. economy and a gradual rise in real interest rates may send investors towards other investments, their analysts said.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Global Economic Growth Estimates Slashed for 2013 / Economics / Global Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: I realize many people might be getting tired of hearing about the eurozone and the lack of economic growth in that union; however, we must be aware that what does occur in the eurozone and the trajectory of its economic growth can and will have an impact on the American economy. The global economy is more closely tied together now than ever before, and a lack of economic growth in one area could spread into another nation.

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Economics

Monday, December 10, 2012

McJobs, Why You Shouldn’t Get Too Excited About the U.S. Jobs Picture / Economics / Employment

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: The labor picture remains precarious. On one hand, Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE/C) announced it was cutting 11,000 jobs worldwide, as the financial services sector continues to be hard hit; while on the other hand, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ/AAPL) announced it would produce at least one of its computer products in the United States.

Wall Street was relieved last Friday after the much-anticipated jobs readings offered much-needed hope that job creation in America continues to be on track.

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Economics

Sunday, December 09, 2012

Startling Look at U.S. Job Demographics by Age / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

ZeroHedge had an interesting set of charts of BLS data in his post Number Of Workers Aged 25-54 Back To April 1997 Levels.

I picked up on that theme and put together this chart of BLS data showing various age groups.

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Economics

Sunday, December 09, 2012

U.S. Real Hourly Wages and Hours Worked Analysis / Economics / US Economy

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short. Here is a look at two key numbers in today’s monthly employment report for November: Average Hourly Earnings and Average Weekly Hours. The government has been tracking the data for Production and Nonsupervisory Employees for decades. But coverage of Total Private Employees only dates from March 2006.

Let’s look at the broader series, which goes back far enough to show the trend since before the Great Recession. I want to look closely at a five-snapshot sequence.

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Economics

Saturday, December 08, 2012

Why the 98% Matter to the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong: President Obama is on a fiscal cliff campaign to show why middle-class America really needs the help. Of course, Republicans want the Bush-era tax cuts to also apply to the top two percent of income earners. This is the major sticking point holding up a deal.

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Economics

Friday, December 07, 2012

U.S. Labor Market – One Step Forward, Two Steps Back / Economics / Employment

By: Andy_Sutton

Just when you think things can’t get any more ludicrous or obscene in terms of insulting the truth, out comes the BLS with its monthly jobs numbers. I’m going to break those down in a minute. But wait! There’s much more. We’ve got the fed, which had been promising to raise rates starting in 2010, then 2011, then ’12, and now they’re all the way out in 2015. Double that for the monetization (not just asset purchases). Those programs were supposed to be exited, starting this year. Now those exit plans are going to be redrawn. I’d say at this point they should just drop the charade.

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Economics

Friday, December 07, 2012

Economic Depression, Time To Write Off Europe for the Next Decade? / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The EU is a morally bankrupt blind behemoth that, in a doomed attempt to survive, destroys everything around it just to keep itself standing. In that, it is hardly different from several incarnations of the 20th century politburos in Russia and China - and those are by no means the darkest comparisons that could spring to mind.

There are tons of people working in and for the EU, some of whom are smart while others are not, some who are honest and some who are just self-centred , but the apparatus has become a vortex that sucks in all of them. There many be just a small window left for Europeans to retain a grip on democracy. There's not much left. Stock markets may give the impression that things are going fine, but that is possible only because increasingly severe austerity measures are spreading rapidly, and have now reached the core, not just Greece and Spain. The EU induced illusions will keep coming fast and furious, however, until they don't. And then it will be too late for democracy.

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Economics

Friday, December 07, 2012

U.S. Household Net Worth: The ”Real” Story / Economics / US Economy

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short writes: A quick glance at the complete household net worth data series in a linear chart shows a distinct bubble in net worth that peaked in Q4 2007 with a trough in Q1 2009, the quarter the equity markets bottomed. The latest Fed balance sheet shows a total net worth that is 26.4% above the 2009 trough but still 3.8% below the 2007 peak. The nominal Q3 net worth is up 2.7% from Q2 and up 10.4% year over year.

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