Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, January 25, 2013
Can U.S. Economy Avoid Recession in 2013? / Economics / Recession 2013
By: Money_Morning
Diane Alter writes: The U.S. economy is currently two-for-two in its attempts to skirt recession 2013.
The first came after we narrowly avoided a tumble over the fiscal cliff with a down-to-the-wire deal on New Year's Day. The second came Wednesday with the passage of a three-month extension on raising the debt ceiling.
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Friday, January 25, 2013
High Unemployment Isn’t Just an American Dilemma / Economics / Unemployment
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: We have nearly eight percent of Americans pounding the pavement, but it is more likely double that if you count the workers actually unemployed or underemployed. But the problem of high unemployment is not only an ongoing issue in America; it’s a problem that is found in pockets all around the world, from the rust belt in Ohio to the massive manufacturing plants in China.
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Thursday, January 24, 2013
Nouriel Roubini: Financial Tensions Could Lead to Protectionism / Economics / Global Economy
By: Bloomberg
Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Global Economics and Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group appeared on "Bloomberg Surveillance" today from the World Economic Forum in Davos. Roubini said that "problems are global, but policies are national" and that "coordinating among different countries is going to become increasingly difficult. Political tensions, economic and financial tensions, like currency wars, can lead eventually to protectionism." Video for viewing and embedding here:
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
The Free Money Miracle? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Jonathan Goodwin writes: The "Miracle of Wörgl," refers to the story of currency demurrage and the impact it had on the economy of Wörgl, a small town in Austria. For a bill of such currency to retain its face value, the currency holder must pay a regular, periodic payment (a tax) for a stamp or other marking. Wörgl is regularly touted by advocates of demurrage as a successful implementation of such a currency, one designed to encourage velocity due to the incentive to spend it in order to avoid the periodic tax.
The experiment at Wörgl was implemented by the town’s mayor, Michael Unterguggenberger in the midst of the Great Depression. Wörgl, like many towns throughout the world at the time, was suffering from high unemployment and low economic activity. The experiment began on the 31st of July 1932, with the issuing of "Certified Compensation Bills," a form of currency commonly known as Stamp Scrip, or Freigeld. It resulted in a boom in government projects, and a corresponding increase in employment and economic activity not just in the government sector, but throughout the town.
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Tuesday, January 22, 2013
United States on the Verge of an Explosion of Greatness! / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
David Tepper, founder of Appaloosa Management, told Bloomberg Television's Stephanie Ruhle on "Market Makers" today that he's "going to come out of the closet right now...we are bullish... This country is on the version of just an explosion of greatness. Do you like that? Explosion of greatness."
On how he founded Appaloosa, Tepper said, "after you work on Wall Street it's a choice, would you rather work at McDonald's or on the sell side? I would choose McDonald's. Over the sell side."
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Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Why Investors Need to Look to the Emerging Markets for Growth / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: The key to the global economy is a rise in consumer spending. My view is that the emerging markets will continue to be an excellent place to invest some capital, whether it’s the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) or the Southeast Asian “Little Tigers,” comprising Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. I’m bullish on this area of the world. My reasoning is that the newfound wealth and growing middle class in these markets will drive consumer spending and economic growth.
Monday, January 21, 2013
Confusing Economic Data from China; What’s Really Happening? / Economics / China Economy
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: Recently, we have heard and seen some data stating that the Chinese economy is beginning to rebound. Many analysts have started to raise their economic forecast for the Chinese economy in 2013.
One of the difficult aspects when calculating an economic forecast for the Chinese economy is that much of the official data from China are questionable.
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Saturday, January 19, 2013
Corporate Hoarding Of Cash May Soon Become A Big Economic Positive! / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
For a number of years politicians and analysts have bemoaned the fact that U.S. corporations were hoarding cash to an unprecedented degree, refusing to invest it for future growth that might have helped the economy recover from the back-to-back recessions of 2001 and 2008. Lagging business investment has continuously been tagged as one of the major factors stifling the economy.
Depending on whose numbers you believe, corporations are sitting on a record $2 trillion to $4 trillion in idle cash, earning only today’s minimal interest.
Saturday, January 19, 2013
US Economy - The Erosion of Growth, Tax Consequences From Gain to Drain / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In their fourth-quarter 2012 Quarterly Review and Outlook – today’s OTB – Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington spell out the consequences of the so-called American Taxpayer Relief Act, as well as the even more egregiously named Affordable Care Act. They quickly conclude that the real effects of the tax increases on both individual taxpayers and the overall economy will be much greater than media reports have suggested.
One of the more interesting impacts is that many corporations, large and small, borrowed multiple billions of dollars to make early or special dividend payments, or paid 2012 bonuses before the year turned over. This, the authors write, “… will cause the fourth quarter national income and product figures to be dramatically overstated and will provide no guide to the prospects for 2013. However … income should show a sharp decline early in 2013.”
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Friday, January 18, 2013
The Secret Word: Deflation - And the Next Five Years of Financial Turmoil / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
The following is a sample from Elliott Wave International's new 40-page report, The State of the Global Markets - 2013 Edition: The Most Important Investment Report
You'll Read This Year. This article was originally published in Robert Prechter's July 2012 Elliott Wave Theorist.
In the first five months of 2012, there were 20 times as many Google searches on "inflation" as there were on "deflation." This is down from a ratio of 50 times in June 2008. If any theme has been overdone over the past six years, it is the theme of inevitable inflation if not hyperinflation.
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Friday, January 18, 2013
Dallas Fed - We Don't Want Inflation To Raise Its Ugly Head / Economics / Inflation
By: Bloomberg
Dallas Federal Reserve president Richard Fisher told Bloomberg Television's Michael McKee today that the one thing everyone at the Fed agrees on is that "we don't want inflation to raise its ugly head." Fisher said that "as perhaps the most hawkish member of the Fed when it comes to inflation," he doesn't "see that prospect right now."
Fisher also said that community and regional banks need a "level playing field" and that "I do not dislike Jamie Dimon or Lloyd Blankfein. My children are friends with Lloyd Blankfein's children. They're good people. They do a good job at what they do. They're not bad people. It is just that the system is biased towards their institutions."
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Thursday, January 17, 2013
Why Government Bailouts Actually Lower GDP Growth Potential / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: What does it take to create and sustain long-term gross domestic product (GDP) growth in an economy?
One of the most important factors is a high level of investor confidence.
Investor confidence throughout the economy can help support the formation and expansion of businesses and the development of new technologies and ideas.
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Thursday, January 17, 2013
Has the Fed Killed the Kress Economic Cycle? / Economics / Cycles Analysis
By: Clif_Droke
Some have called it the Age of the Central Bank. Record monetary stimulus interventions in recent years have propelled the stock market to levels not seen since the 2008 credit crash. By whatever name you call it, central bank intervention has altered the investment and economic landscapes.
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
Where Is the Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Mark_Thornton
Critics of the Austrian School of economics have been throwing barbs at Austrians like Robert Murphy because there is very little inflation in the economy. Of course, these critics are speaking about the mainstream concept of the price level as measured by the Consumer Price Index (i.e., CPI).
Let us ignore the problems with the concept of the price level and all the technical problems with CPI. Let us further ignore the fact that this has little to do with the Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT), as the critics would like to suggest. The basic notion that more money, i.e., inflation, causes higher prices, i.e., price inflation, is not a uniquely Austrian view. It is a very old and commonly held view by professional economists and is presented in nearly every textbook that I have examined.
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Wednesday, January 16, 2013
Why You Shouldn’t Believe Japan’s New Economic Stimulus Will Work / Economics / Japan Economy
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: Japan, under newly elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, will aggressively try to get the country’s economy back on track after more than two decades of economic stalling, but it will not be easy. Armed with a new stimulus spending of $116 billion, the hope is that the stimulus spending will drive consumer spending and help revitalize an economy that has been in a comatose state. (Source: “Japanese government approves $116bn stimulus package,” BBC News, January 11, 2013.)
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Monday, January 14, 2013
Austrian Economics in 2013 / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Regular readers of my articles either have some knowledge of Austrian economic theory or at least suspect that Keynesian and monetarist alternatives are flawed. Their failures are becoming more evident, which suggests we will hear more of Austrian theory in 2013. So how is Austrian theory different? Consider the following simple propositions in accordance with Austrian theory, which we can confirm from personal experience:
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Friday, January 11, 2013
Outlook for the US Economy in 2013 / Economics / US Economy
By: Brian_Bloom
POTUS may have made a serious tactical error, in "engineering" the House fiscal cliff vote. US Public Debt limit negotiations loom. The error can be retrieved if he backs down and shows humility in negotiations. If he continues with his arrogant approach, the economy (and the gold price) might head south.
The chart below - courtesy Stockcharts.com – shows very clearly that the gold price has arrived at yet another decision point.
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Friday, January 11, 2013
Iran’s Lying Inflation Statistics / Economics / Inflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Today, the Central Bank of Iran released its inflation statistics for 2012. Remarkably, despite all of the international notoriety surrounding Iran’s outbreak of hyperinflation in October, the Central Bank claims that Iran experienced an annual inflation rate of only 27.4%.
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Thursday, January 10, 2013
Economic Collapse!A Leading Indicator Of Better Times To Come / Economics / Global Economy
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
It’s going to get better; but, first, it’s going to get worse
Time of the Vulture, 3rd ed. 2012
When I presented Time of The Vulture: How to Survive the Crisis and Prosper in the Process to the Positive Deviant Network in March 2007, the economic collapse hadn’t yet happened. The next year, it did.
At the time, I suggested those in attendance shed debt, sell their homes and buy gold. Then, the US real estate market was functioning without direct government aid, gold was $650 per ounce and the financial system was stable.
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Monday, January 07, 2013
How the U.S. Economy Will Impact Corporate America / Economics / Corporate Earnings
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: There has been so much focus on the fiscal cliff that I feel traders are ignoring the problems of slowing growth in corporate America.
The fourth-quarter earnings season begins tomorrow with Alcoa Inc. (NYSE/AA), the first DOW stock to report in this earnings season. Alcoa is one of the world’s top aluminum makers; the stock is also a good indicator for the global economy, as aluminum is used in many industrial applications, including aircraft, automobile, commercial transportation, packaging, building and construction, oil and gas, defense, consumer electronics, and industrial applications.
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