Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, August 10, 2016
3 Recent Danger Signs of a Looming Recession / Economics / Recession 2016
By: John_Mauldin
BY TONY SAGAMI : The world of investing is much riskier today than when I was growing up.
The biggest risk I see is an economy that is barely expanding beyond stall speed and threatening to fall into a recession.
The Census Bureau recently reported that the US economy grew at a 1.2% annualized pace in Q2. Plus, they adjusted the Q1 GDP growth rate from 1.1% down to just 0.8%.
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Tuesday, August 09, 2016
Greenspan Gets One Right: Here Comes Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Michael_Pento
In a recent interview, former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan (the "Maestro") warned that the economy was experiencing, "the early signs of stagflation." This is a very rare occasion where Mr. Greenspan and I are actually in agreement. I also warned of this in my “Time to Invest for Stagflation” commentary published several months ago.
In fact, the U.S. economy—and indeed the entire developed world—is in the beginning stages of an unprecedented breakout of stagflation. The number one reason for this can be summed up in a single word…debt. Debt not only steers an economy towards low growth but it also mires the nation with inflation.
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Monday, August 01, 2016
US Economy - 3 Charts Economists Want to Keep Secret / Economics / US Economy
By: EWI
Despite new all-time highs in the stock market, US economic data is lagging. In fact, real GDP per person just dropped to its lowest level in more than 75 years!
While major news outlets never miss a chance to jump on that latest negative trend from society, they seem reluctant to cover basic economic figures that could spell bad news for millions of Americans. Yet the steady dive in US economic performance has recently become too pronounced to ignore.
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Friday, July 29, 2016
US GDP Forecast Sinks to 1.8% Following Advance Economic Indicators Reports / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Today the Census Department released its first "Advance Economic Indicators Report". The new report adds wholesale and retail inventories to its existing International Trade in Goods report.
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Thursday, July 28, 2016
The State Of The Economy / Economics / US Housing
By: .....
If the economy was a game of bingo, we'd all be waiting for the 75 ball to get pulled. Things are going well - in some areas, at least - and it looks like things will continue to improve. Unfortunately, it also seems like we can't quite get back to that pre-2008 level of prosperity that we left so long ago. Something seems to be missing, and there are disagreements on what that might be. Waiting for that proverbial ball to get pulled is difficult, but it helps to know what to be on the lookout for. As always, though, there are multiple possibilities.
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
China Economic Troubles - Is Kyle Bass Finally Getting His Revenge? / Economics / China Economy
By: Clif_Droke
One of America's most prominent hedge fund managers is betting the farm that China's economic troubles are far from over. His bet centers around the U.S. dollar and by extension several Asian currencies. What happens to the dollar from here will determine whether this man's epic trading positions pays off, and China suffers a major setback, and whether his worst case scenario for the global economic outlook is merely a mirage. If he's right, the outcome of his bet will also affect the commodities market and perhaps even the equities market.
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Deleveraging in Motion - Believe It or Not, Our Money Velocity Sucks! / Economics / Deflation
By: Harry_Dent
Dr. Lacy Hunt has been featured more than any outside speaker at our IES conferences. Why? Because he’s the only classical economist I fully admire and he is a successful bond investment manager in the real world that understands the trend towards deflation, despite unprecedented money-printing.I love the gold bugs for being realistic and honest about the debt and financial asset bubble we’re in, especially when most mainstream economists and analysts are blind to it.
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Saturday, July 16, 2016
Ireland’s Bogus 26% GDP Economic Boost / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: MISES
Jonathan Newman writes: Ireland’s Central Statistics Office updated their 2015 national income figures and revealed a staggering 26.3% increase in real GDP from 2014 to 2015.
Paul Krugman called it “leprechaun economics.”
Joseph Salerno said “that’s unbelievable!”
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Monday, July 11, 2016
What US Economic Recovery; 62% of Americans Don't Even Have $1000 in Savings / Economics / US Economy
By: Sol_Palha
A key sign of financial health is savings; if one does not have a decent amount of money tucked away for a rainy day, it is a sign that all is not well. Americans have a very hard time sticking to a budget and saving, compared to their Asian counterparts. This is reflected in the startling revelation that over 62% of Americans do not even have $1000 in their savings account. Foreigners are shocked when they find out that Americans have so little money saved for a rainy day.
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Tuesday, July 05, 2016
Ready or Not the Recession May Have Already Arrived / Economics / Recession 2016
By: Michael_Pento
While investors have been focused on the perennial failed hope for a second half economic recovery, they have been missing the most salient point: the U.S. most likely entered into a recession at the end of last quarter.
That’s right, when adjusting nominal GDP growth for Core Consumer Price Inflation for the average of the past two-quarters the recession is already here. But before we look deeper into this, let’s first look at the following five charts that illustrate the economy has been steadily deteriorating for the past few years and that the pace of decline has recently picked up steam.
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Monday, July 04, 2016
BrExit Implications for UK Economy, Interest Rates, Bonds, Markets, Debt & Deficit, Inflation... / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
On Thursday 23rd of June 2016 the people of Britain voted to LEAVE the European Union surprising all including politicians, financial markets, big businesses, pollsters, bookmakers and even prominent LEAVE campaigners such as Nigel Farage who conceded defeat shortly after the polls closed at 10pm only to start backtracking a couple of hours later. The apparent surprise result that confounded most expectations has led to a spike in market and policy uncertainty as within hours of the decision David Cameron announced that he would be stepping down as PM and thus triggering a Tory leadership contest. Whilst Labour apparently went one step further by completely self destructing as 75% of Westminister Labour MP's attempt to eject Jeremy Corbyn, a civil war that looks set to destroy the Labour party. So Britain today remains rudderless without a functioning government or opposition let alone any idea of exactly how a BrExit vote will translate into real world impacts in every day peoples lives where now major business and economic decisions have been put on hold.
Sunday, July 03, 2016
UK BrExit Inflation Forecasts Spike CPI to 3%, RPI 4% / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst official UK CPI Inflation continues to hug near 0% at a rate of just 0.3% for May 2016, meanwhile RPI which is the closest official measure to real inflation has continued to nudge higher to 1.4%, which are set against the demand adjusted Real UK inflation rate of 1.8%. So deflation? Not really, real UK price Inflation is actually well above 1% and was already trending towards 2% before BrExit.
Sunday, July 03, 2016
Deflation Is Blowing In On An Eastern Trade Wind / Economics / Deflation
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Brexit is nowhere near the biggest challenge to western economies. And not just because it has devolved into a two-bit theater piece. Though we should not forget the value of that development: it lays bare the real Albion and the power hunger of its supposed leaders. From xenophobia and racism on the streets, to back-stabbing in dimly lit smoky backrooms, there’s not a states(wo)man in sight, and none will be forthcoming. Only sell-outs need apply.
The only person with an ounce of integrity left is Jeremy Corbyn, but his Labour party is dead, which is why he must fight off an entire horde of zombies. Unless Corbyn leaves labour and starts Podemos UK, he’s gone too. The current infighting on both the left and right means there is a unique window for something new, but Brits love what they think are their traditions, plus Corbyn has been Labour all his life, and he just won’t see it.
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Saturday, July 02, 2016
George Osborne's BrExit Excuse to Scrap UK Government Debt, Deficit and Borrowing Targets / Economics / UK Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
George Osborne Friday announced that he would be using BrExit as an excuse to scrap the cornerstone of his economic policy, one of ending this parliament with an annual budget surplus, instead now stating:
"The referendum result is as expected likely to lead to a significant negative shock for the British economy. How we respond will determine the impact on people’s jobs and on economic growth.
The Bank of England can support demand.
The government must provide fiscal credibility so we will continue to be tough on the deficit but we must be realistic about achieving a surplus by the end of this decade as precisely the flexibility that our rules provide for, and we need to reduce uncertainty by moving as quickly as possible to a new relationship with Europe and being super competitive, open for business and free trading. That’s the plan and we must set to it.”
Monday, June 27, 2016
If We Don’t Do Anything, Obesity Will Bankrupt the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK COX: A recent study reported that 40% of American women are now obese; the highest percentage in history. Men have a slightly lower rate of obesity at 35%.
This is not the world that Malthusians like Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren (President Obama’s science advisor) predicted a few decades ago. By now, we were supposed to have run out of resources due to overpopulation and starved to death…
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Saturday, June 25, 2016
Venezuela vs. Ecuador (Chavismo vs. Chavismo Dollarized) / Economics / Venezuela
By: Steve_H_Hanke
With the arrival of President Hugo Chávez in 1999, Venezuela embraced Chavismo, a form of Andean socialism. In 2013, Chávez met the Grim Reaper and Nicolás Maduro assumed Chávez’ mantle.Chavismo has not been confined to Venezuela, however. A form of it has been adopted by Rafael Correa – a leftist economist who became president of a dollarized Ecuador in 2007.
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Friday, June 24, 2016
Here’s Why China “Economic Hard-Landing” Worries Are Overblown / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Although a number of well-known hedge fund managers such as Kyle Bass and George Soros have publicly stated they believe some kind of a “hard landing” in China is coming, not everyone agrees.
Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital is not in the China “hard-landing” camp. He says while the Chinese economy is facing a number of headwinds and risks as it tries to adjust to a consumer-based model, the authorities are wisely taking a balanced, long-term view.
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Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Billionaire Li Ka-Shing Says China’s Economic Outlook Is Bright / Economics / China Economy
By: Bloomberg
Trade surplus, income from services help counter mounting debt
Tycoon was criticised by Chinese state media last year
Hong Kong’s richest man said China’s economic outlook is bright in the long term, casting a vote of confidence in a country that’s growing at its slowest pace in a quarter century.
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Monday, June 20, 2016
The Fallacy of GDP Growth and How the UK Economy is Actually Shrinking / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mario_Innecco
hi monday jun 20 of 2016 monaco 64 here home of alternative economics and contrarian views
I want to talk about GDP today that's gross domestic product just basically a
Keynesian centrally planned measure of economic production in any economy and
the equation for it is consumption plus investment plus government spending plus
net exports so yes they include government spending in gross domestic product which in my
opinion doesn't make any sense at all because government spending is done
through taxation government doesn't produce anything you may argue that they
run but the public sector but it's a monopoly and the only way they run it is
through taxation which is basic read distributing private income into the
government so I want to talk about the fallacy of economic growth of the last
eight years in the UK especially because that's where i am and you know we we've
Friday, June 17, 2016
Former Central Banker Admits World Economy Remains in Recession and Depressed / Economics / Global Economy
By: Mario_Innecco
hi Friday June 17 2016 here home of alternative economics and contrarian views today I'd like to talk
about the honest former central banker and that is
mervyn king who was the governor of the Bank of England which is the equivalent
of what Janet Yellen is chairman of the Federal Reserve he was governor from
2003 2 2013 for 10 years so II he was around during the great financial crisis
and after it and before he was chief economist of the Bank of England before
that and deputy governor so is a man with experience
I know a lot of my viewers and myself do not believe in the institution of
central banking because it's basically a monopoly that and also it's a
bureaucracy that controls you know the price of money which should really be
controlled by the market but I he has written a book and the book is called
the end of alchemy money banking and the future of the global economy so