Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, July 04, 2016
BrExit Implications for UK Economy, Interest Rates, Bonds, Markets, Debt & Deficit, Inflation... / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
On Thursday 23rd of June 2016 the people of Britain voted to LEAVE the European Union surprising all including politicians, financial markets, big businesses, pollsters, bookmakers and even prominent LEAVE campaigners such as Nigel Farage who conceded defeat shortly after the polls closed at 10pm only to start backtracking a couple of hours later. The apparent surprise result that confounded most expectations has led to a spike in market and policy uncertainty as within hours of the decision David Cameron announced that he would be stepping down as PM and thus triggering a Tory leadership contest. Whilst Labour apparently went one step further by completely self destructing as 75% of Westminister Labour MP's attempt to eject Jeremy Corbyn, a civil war that looks set to destroy the Labour party. So Britain today remains rudderless without a functioning government or opposition let alone any idea of exactly how a BrExit vote will translate into real world impacts in every day peoples lives where now major business and economic decisions have been put on hold.
Sunday, July 03, 2016
UK BrExit Inflation Forecasts Spike CPI to 3%, RPI 4% / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst official UK CPI Inflation continues to hug near 0% at a rate of just 0.3% for May 2016, meanwhile RPI which is the closest official measure to real inflation has continued to nudge higher to 1.4%, which are set against the demand adjusted Real UK inflation rate of 1.8%. So deflation? Not really, real UK price Inflation is actually well above 1% and was already trending towards 2% before BrExit.
Sunday, July 03, 2016
Deflation Is Blowing In On An Eastern Trade Wind / Economics / Deflation
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Brexit is nowhere near the biggest challenge to western economies. And not just because it has devolved into a two-bit theater piece. Though we should not forget the value of that development: it lays bare the real Albion and the power hunger of its supposed leaders. From xenophobia and racism on the streets, to back-stabbing in dimly lit smoky backrooms, there’s not a states(wo)man in sight, and none will be forthcoming. Only sell-outs need apply.
The only person with an ounce of integrity left is Jeremy Corbyn, but his Labour party is dead, which is why he must fight off an entire horde of zombies. Unless Corbyn leaves labour and starts Podemos UK, he’s gone too. The current infighting on both the left and right means there is a unique window for something new, but Brits love what they think are their traditions, plus Corbyn has been Labour all his life, and he just won’t see it.
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Saturday, July 02, 2016
George Osborne's BrExit Excuse to Scrap UK Government Debt, Deficit and Borrowing Targets / Economics / UK Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
George Osborne Friday announced that he would be using BrExit as an excuse to scrap the cornerstone of his economic policy, one of ending this parliament with an annual budget surplus, instead now stating:
"The referendum result is as expected likely to lead to a significant negative shock for the British economy. How we respond will determine the impact on people’s jobs and on economic growth.
The Bank of England can support demand.
The government must provide fiscal credibility so we will continue to be tough on the deficit but we must be realistic about achieving a surplus by the end of this decade as precisely the flexibility that our rules provide for, and we need to reduce uncertainty by moving as quickly as possible to a new relationship with Europe and being super competitive, open for business and free trading. That’s the plan and we must set to it.”
Monday, June 27, 2016
If We Don’t Do Anything, Obesity Will Bankrupt the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK COX: A recent study reported that 40% of American women are now obese; the highest percentage in history. Men have a slightly lower rate of obesity at 35%.
This is not the world that Malthusians like Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren (President Obama’s science advisor) predicted a few decades ago. By now, we were supposed to have run out of resources due to overpopulation and starved to death…
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Saturday, June 25, 2016
Venezuela vs. Ecuador (Chavismo vs. Chavismo Dollarized) / Economics / Venezuela
By: Steve_H_Hanke
With the arrival of President Hugo Chávez in 1999, Venezuela embraced Chavismo, a form of Andean socialism. In 2013, Chávez met the Grim Reaper and Nicolás Maduro assumed Chávez’ mantle.Chavismo has not been confined to Venezuela, however. A form of it has been adopted by Rafael Correa – a leftist economist who became president of a dollarized Ecuador in 2007.
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Friday, June 24, 2016
Here’s Why China “Economic Hard-Landing” Worries Are Overblown / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Although a number of well-known hedge fund managers such as Kyle Bass and George Soros have publicly stated they believe some kind of a “hard landing” in China is coming, not everyone agrees.
Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital is not in the China “hard-landing” camp. He says while the Chinese economy is facing a number of headwinds and risks as it tries to adjust to a consumer-based model, the authorities are wisely taking a balanced, long-term view.
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Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Billionaire Li Ka-Shing Says China’s Economic Outlook Is Bright / Economics / China Economy
By: Bloomberg
Trade surplus, income from services help counter mounting debt
Tycoon was criticised by Chinese state media last year
Hong Kong’s richest man said China’s economic outlook is bright in the long term, casting a vote of confidence in a country that’s growing at its slowest pace in a quarter century.
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Monday, June 20, 2016
The Fallacy of GDP Growth and How the UK Economy is Actually Shrinking / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mario_Innecco
hi monday jun 20 of 2016 monaco 64 here home of alternative economics and contrarian views
I want to talk about GDP today that's gross domestic product just basically a
Keynesian centrally planned measure of economic production in any economy and
the equation for it is consumption plus investment plus government spending plus
net exports so yes they include government spending in gross domestic product which in my
opinion doesn't make any sense at all because government spending is done
through taxation government doesn't produce anything you may argue that they
run but the public sector but it's a monopoly and the only way they run it is
through taxation which is basic read distributing private income into the
government so I want to talk about the fallacy of economic growth of the last
eight years in the UK especially because that's where i am and you know we we've
Friday, June 17, 2016
Former Central Banker Admits World Economy Remains in Recession and Depressed / Economics / Global Economy
By: Mario_Innecco
hi Friday June 17 2016 here home of alternative economics and contrarian views today I'd like to talk
about the honest former central banker and that is
mervyn king who was the governor of the Bank of England which is the equivalent
of what Janet Yellen is chairman of the Federal Reserve he was governor from
2003 2 2013 for 10 years so II he was around during the great financial crisis
and after it and before he was chief economist of the Bank of England before
that and deputy governor so is a man with experience
I know a lot of my viewers and myself do not believe in the institution of
central banking because it's basically a monopoly that and also it's a
bureaucracy that controls you know the price of money which should really be
controlled by the market but I he has written a book and the book is called
the end of alchemy money banking and the future of the global economy so
Thursday, June 16, 2016
The US Consumer-Driven Economy Has Hit a Brick Wall / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Tony Sagami writes: Get a load of this headline from a German newspaper, which translates into “Extreme Low Interest: Who Saves Is the Fool.”
Thursday, June 16, 2016
China's Hard Landing Has Already Begun! / Economics / China Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
The Financial Repression Authority is joined by Richard Duncan, an esteemed author, economist, consultant and speaker. FRA Co-founder, Gordon T. Long discusses with Mr. Duncan about the current Chinese situation and the ramifications being imposed on the global economy.
Richard Duncan is the author of three books on the global economic crisis. The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (John Wiley & Sons, 2003, updated 2005), predicted the current global economic disaster with extraordinary accuracy. It was an international bestseller. His second book was The Corruption of Capitalism: A strategy to rebalance the global economy and restore sustainable growth. It was published by CLSA Books in December 2009. His latest book is The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy (John Wiley & Sons, 2012).
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Monday, June 13, 2016
Keynesian Economics Versus Austrian Economics - Video / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mario_Innecco
hi it's monday jun 13 2016
home of alternative economics and contrarian views
this morning I want to talk about the difference between the cannes in school
of economics and the Austrian School of Economics because you might be thinking
what is alternative economics and in my view that's what alternative economics
is today is the Austrian School of Economics Austrian School of Economics
is based on the studies of Austrian scholars from the 19th century and it
was followed through by economist's like ludwig von mises Africa
friedrich hayek Murray Rothbard from the US and yeah that's the are strange
school that the proponents of the Austrian school usually while not
usually the proposer ask our school argue that economics is not a science
economics is based on human action and of course human action is not predictable
Thursday, June 09, 2016
The Bull in The China Shop - The World Can No Longer Absorb China's Surplus / Economics / China Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
ISSUE #1
The good news is that China produces more than it consumes. This is the opposite of the US which consumers more than it produces.
The bad news is that the world can no longer absorb China's surplus (Production minus Consumption). Global trade has slowed dramatically impacting Chinese exports. The problem is further compounded since China as the new global economic engine, has become the dominate importer of other countries production.
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Wednesday, June 08, 2016
Will You Heed the New Signs of Economic Crisis? / Economics / Economic Collapse
By: MoneyMetals
Kermit Had an Excuse... But Americans Do Not. On December 7, 1941, Kermit Tyler, an untrained watch officer, was on duty when a radar operator reported to him that he was seeing a large "blip" on the radar screen headed towards Pearl Harbor. Thinking it was a flight of returning U.S. B-17 bombers, Kermit replied nonchalantly, "Don't worry about it."
The "blip" turned out to be the first wave of over 300 Japanese fighters and torpedo bombers bent on attacking U.S. naval and air assets, an act which would plunge the country into World War II.
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Tuesday, June 07, 2016
The Illusion of Falling Official 'Unemployment' Fades / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: MoneyMetals
Friday's employment report featured the headline unemployment rate falling from 5.0% to 4.7% - which is a huge move lower. About the only encouraging aspect of the report is that markets largely ignored the fantasy headline for a change and focused on the ugly details. Nearly everyone acknowledged the report as bad news and markets reacted accordingly.
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Monday, June 06, 2016
A Crisis of Exporters Is Brewing—and That Has Massive Global Economic Implications / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN
The global system has reached a breaking point. All the pressures that have built up over the months and years have finally begun to tear it apart. There is much to tell, but for today, I will mention only three countries: China, Saudi Arabia, and Germany.
From 1991 to 2008, the consensus was that more exports make an economy stronger. This was true until 2008. However, the exporter is only as strong as his customer’s appetite and ability to buy what he sells. When demand falls, what was once a strength becomes a weakness.
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Monday, June 06, 2016
3 Signs the German Economy Is Falling Apart / Economics / Germany
By: John_Mauldin
Germany is the world’s fourth-largest economy. It is also Europe’s largest economy, and any European economic recovery depends a great deal on Germany’s trajectory.
Germany is also the third-largest exporter in absolute terms in the G20 and is nearly as dependent on exports as Saudi Arabia and South Korea. The country, therefore, must export vast amounts to maintain social and political stability.
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Monday, June 06, 2016
The Keynesians Stole The Jobs / Economics / Employment
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Late last week the markets were shocked by a surprisingly bad May jobs report - the worst monthly report in nearly six years. The experts expected the US economy to add 160,000 jobs in May, but it turns out only 38,000 jobs were added. And to make matters worse, 13,000 of those 38,000 were government jobs! Adding more government employees is a drain on the economy, not a measure of economic growth. Incredibly, there are more than 102 million people who are either unemployed or are no longer looking for work.
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Friday, June 03, 2016
Funniest BLS US Jobs Report Ever! / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: James_Quinn
Only a captured government drone could put out a report showing only 38,000 new jobs created, with the working age population rising by 205,000, and have the balls to report the unemployment rate plunged from 5.0% to 4.7%, the lowest since August 2007. If you ever needed proof these worthless bureaucrats are nothing more than propaganda peddlers for the establishment, this report is it. The two previous months were revised significantly downward in the fine print of the press release.