Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, February 05, 2016
U.S. Recession 2016 has Arrived; Factory Orders Decline 2.9%, Inventories Rise / Economics / Recession 2016
By: Mike_Shedlock
Even though economists see a mere 20% chance of recession in 2016, I am increasingly confident a recession began in December 2015.
It was another disastrous factory orders report this month.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 04, 2016
South Africa Economy from Hero to Zero / Economics / Africa
By: AnyOption
On 19 November 2015, the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to hike interest rates by 25-basis points from 6% to 6.25%. The forecast for the next interest-rate meeting on 28 January 2016 was 25-basis points, for an overall interest rate of 6.5%. The SARB surprised everyone when it hiked interest rates by 0.5% to the prevailing interest rate of 6.75%. This bold initiative is one of the more drastic steps that can be taken by the authorities when currencies are depreciating rapidly. This is a way to arrest further declines in the value of the ZAR on the international stage.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 04, 2016
Currency Wars and a Job Gain Recession? / Economics / Currency War
By: Mike_Shedlock
I am entertaining the notion of a "Job Gain Recession".
A chart of year-over-year nonfarm employment shows that's nearly what happened in the 1970 and 1980 recessions.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 04, 2016
TPP is Economic Warfare, Trade Can Make Everyone Worse Off / Governments are Stupid / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Dylan_Waller
Professor Yoram Baumun’s comedic retake of the Principles of Economics appropriately translates “Trade can make everyone better off” to “Trade can make everyone worse off.” Moreover, he translates “Market are usually a good way to organize economic activity” to “Governments are Stupid”.
Tuesday, February 02, 2016
Europe: Why It's Going to Get a Lot Worse Before It Gets Better / Economics / European Union
By: EWI
New interview with our European markets expert
Brian Whitmer, the editor of our monthly European Financial Forecast, explains what indicators helped him anticipate market volatility.
You'll also learn what he's expecting for the year ahead in European stocks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 29, 2016
BEA Estimates U.S. Economy 4th Quarter 2015 GDP Growth at 0.69% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their first "Preliminary" estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +0.69% annualized rate, down -1.30% from the third quarter.
All of the key line items in this report showed meaningful deterioration relative to the third quarter. The reported growth in consumer spending was less than half of that recorded during the prior quarter. The growth in fixed investments nearly disappeared, as did growth in governmental spending. Exports continued to crater, showing outright contraction.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 29, 2016
Economic Headwinds: Big Players, Regime Uncertainty and the Misery Index / Economics / Global Economy
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Before we delve into the economic prospects for 2016, let’s take a look at the economies in the Americas, Asia, Europe and the Middle East/Africa to see how they fared in the 2014-15 period. A clear metric for doing this is the misery index. For any country, a misery index score is simply the sum of the unemployment, inflation, and bank lending rates, minus the percentage change in real GDP per capita. A higher misery index score reflects higher levels of “misery.”
Thursday, January 28, 2016
How The Fed is Suffocating The U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Clif_Droke
Investors are worried over the prospects that the long-term momentum behind the stock market recovery of 2009-2015 may be in danger of complete dissipation this year. That would mean a certain date with an extended bear market and, potentially, an economic recession perhaps sometime later this year.
Normally, within the context of an established bull market, worry would be a good thing given that the bull tends to proceed along a "wall of worry." In view of recent actions undertaken by central banks, however, those worries are legitimate as I'll explain in this commentary.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 23, 2016
Fourth Industrial Revolution: Robots, Artificial Intelligence Will Destroy 5.1 Million U.S. Jobs by 2020 / Economics / Technology
By: Mike_Shedlock
Fourth Industrial Revolution Coming
A new study on the "Future of Jobs " by the World Economic Forum at Davos claims a Fourth Industrial Revolution is Coming.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution includes developments artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology, 3-D printing, genetics, and biotechnology.
Although no industrial revolution has ever destroyed jobs, the study concludes a net 5.1 million jobs will vanish in the world's 15 leading countries. Those countries account for roughly two-thirds of the global workforce.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 23, 2016
Emerging Markets Running Scared with Capital Controls / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: EconMatters
This has not been a good year for emerging markets. Since many of the emerging economies are commodity-reliant (mainly crude oil), the oil price plunge has also crashed their currencies, which prompted money fear and flight.
WSJ quoted the Institute of International Finance that emerging markets suffered record net outflows of $732 billion in 2015, with China accounting for the bulk of that. The Russian ruble, Mexican peso and Colombian peso all hit record lows against the dollar. Overall, emerging-market currencies fell 3% in the first two weeks of 2016.
Thursday, January 21, 2016
Why We Need a Recession / Economics / Recession 2016
By: MISES
Ronald-Peter Stöferle writes: According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a recession is defined as a “significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.” Often, this is understood as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country’s GDP.
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
China Fake Economic Statistics - Everybody’s Doing It / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: John_Rubino
Yesterday’s post on the unreliability of China’s official numbers attracted comments that were mostly along the lines of “people who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.” That is, where does an American get off criticizing the honesty of another government’s reporting practices? Some samples:
Read full article... Read full article...Not to put too fine a point on it but do you trust US GDP numbers? Unemployment numbers? Inflation numbers? Which country, if they posted totally true and accepted numbers, would have the larger impact on global markets? The biggest economy or the second biggest economy? Just saying….
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Why Are We Still Paying Attention To Chinese Economic Numbers? / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Rubino
A few years ago, economist Nouriel Roubini was explaining to a reporter why Chinese economic data couldn’t be trusted. He noted that it takes the US weeks and sometimes months to pull together and process the information necessary to produce a complex stat like GDP, and wondered how China, with its far bigger, less developed (and therefore harder to measure) population was able to do it in considerably less time. He concluded that they’re just making up their numbers.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Why This Economic Slump Has Legs / Economics / Recession 2016
By: Raul_I_Meijer
We’ve only really been in two weeks of trading in the new year, things are looking pretty bad to say the least, so predictably the press are asking -and often answering- questions about when the slump will be over. Rebound, recovery, the usual terminology. When will we get back to growth?
For me personally, but that’s just me, that last question sounds a bit more stupid every single time I hear and read it. Just a bit, but there’s been a lot of those bits, more than I care to remember. Luckily, the answer is easy. The slump will not be over for a very long time, there will be no rebound or recovery, and please stop talking about a return to growth unless you can explain what you want to grow into.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 17, 2016
U.S. Economy - The Chart that Explains Everything! / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Whitney
Why is the economy barely growing after seven years of zero rates and easy money? Why are wages and incomes sagging when stock and bond prices have gone through the roof? Why are stocks experiencing such extreme volatility when the Fed increased rates by a mere quarter of a percent?
It’s the policy, stupid. And here’s the chart that explains exactly what the policy is.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 16, 2016
Themes, Dreams, and Schemes - Global Economy at Stall Speed, Monetary Velocity and Interest Rates / Economics / Global Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
First I must offer an apology of sorts for being in absentia for an extended period of time. I would imagine that those of you who struggle to keep up with the demands of work, family, and everyday stresses understand this, but I apologize anyway. There are links on the blog to the Liberty Talk Radio appearances I’ve made over the past few months just to prove that I’m still vertical. Graham joins me once again and as always has some interesting takeaways.
Friday, January 15, 2016
U.S. Consumers Drowning Their Sorrows At The Bar / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
Month after month I watch as the MSM mouthpieces try to spin declining consumer spending in a positive light. They are practically out of excuses. They are befuddled, because month after month they report “awesome” job gains and can’t understand why all these gainfully employed Americans aren’t buying shit they don’t need like they used to. These faux journalists, spouting propaganda for their ruling class bosses, are willfully ignorant of the fact the job gains are in low paying part-time jobs and the fact that Obamacare and record high rents are sapping any discretionary income households would use to buy stuff.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 14, 2016
The American Dream is Dying But it Can be Revived / Economics / US Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long follow-up to their discussion last month of the puzzle of the falling US Civilian Labor Participation Rate. In this session they tackle the issues associated with "Universal Basic Income" which the public narrative has begun to 'offer up' as a solution.
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Dow Down Nearly 1,500 Points This Year While Obama Claims U.S. Economy Is Great / Economics / US Economy
By: Jeff_Berwick
America, the individual triumph of millions of individuals through the generations has now become the “United State” and like any fascist or communist dictatorship, lies have increased as freedom has decreased. Many huddled around their TV sets (although in decreasing numbers – which is the real hope!) and heard a concentrated dose of untruths last night from the Great Leader for the “State of the Union”.
I didn’t watch. Politicians make me sick to my stomach and the sight of an entire throng of welfare-recipients (Congress) cheering for minutes on end for a man who has never held a real job in his life as he reads from his teleprompter is too much of a chore.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Dallas Fed's Kaplan: Market Swings May Not Reflect U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan told Bloomberg's Michael McKee that the stock market swings may not reflect the underlying economy, and officials shouldn't overreact.
On Bloomberg TV's "Bloomberg <GO>" this morning, Kaplan said: "This has been a very tough start to the year. It says a lot though about the turmoil in the markets in China....You've got to watch these market moves, but you've got to realize that they may or may not reflect what's going on with the underlying economy in the United States. I'd say you've got to watch it, and understand it. But not over read or over react."
Read full article... Read full article...