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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, September 28, 2015

Economic Channels of Distress - Fourth Turning Crisis of Trust / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

In Part 1 of this article I discussed the catalyst spark which ignited this Fourth Turning and the seemingly delayed regeneracy. In Part 2 I pondered possible Grey Champion prophet generation leaders who could arise during the regeneracy. In Part 3 I will focus on the economic channel of distress which is likely to be the primary driving force in the next phase of this Crisis.

There are very few people left on this earth who lived through the last Fourth Turning (1929 - 1946). The passing of older generations is a key component in the recurring cycles which propel the world through the seemingly chaotic episodes that paint portraits on the canvas of history. The current alignment of generations is driving this Crisis and will continue to give impetus to the future direction of this Fourth Turning. The alignment during a Fourth Turning is always the same: Old Artists (Silent) die, Prophets (Boomers) enter elderhood, Nomads (Gen X) enter midlife, Heroes (Millennials) enter young adulthood -- and a new generation of child Artists (Gen Y) is born. This is an era in which America's institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up -- always in response to a perceived threat to the nation's very survival.

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Economics

Friday, September 18, 2015

U.S. Economy Future Expectations Made Six Months Ago vs. Today's Reality / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

On Thursday, I noted Bloomberg's comment "Something Very Wrong" with the manufacturing sector.

More completely, Bloomberg stated "There may very well be something wrong with the manufacturing sector, at least in the Northeast where the Empire State index has been in deep negative ground for the last two months followed now by a minus 6.0 headline for the Philly Fed index."

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Economics

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Syria's Economy Not Shaken by ISIS / Economics / Syria

By: Steve_H_Hanke

The fog of war has removed any sense of certainty regarding developments on the Syrian battlefield. That said, we know that ISIS has captured several towns, and that waves of Syrian refugees are disembarking upon Europe's shores. But, the picture remains chaotic and hazy.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Empire Fed, Retail Sales, Industrial Production All Miss / Economics / US Economy

By: Ashraf_Laidi

A trifecta of misses in today's US economic releases may not be a game-changer in Thursday's Fed decision because the game is already "unchanged". The September Empire Fed survey posted another double digit decline to remain at 6-year lows, August retail sales rose 0.3% to miss expectations for the sixth consecutive month and industrial production fell 0.4% in August to post seven declines over the past eight months--the worst pattern since 2008-9.

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Economics

Monday, September 14, 2015

No Recession, But… / Economics / Recession 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

I am personally not yet convinced an ultimate bull market top is in despite the obvious similarities of the recent interim top to 2007 [the first sign in this regard would be a loss of the October 2014 and August 2015 lows]. It could also be a 1998 clone, as we have noted by chart similarities and by global financial similarities (China/Asia). However, in 2007 the stock market did a good job of forecasting the coming “Great Recession” (a sanitized way of saying ‘impulsive unwinding of leverage’). Here is what economists think today (ref. Bloomberg article): http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/here-s-when-economists-expect-to-see-the-next-u-s-recession. 2018 it is, according to a majority of buttoned down dart throwers.

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Economics

Monday, September 14, 2015

U.S. Unemployment Rate - A Dirty Game of Numbers / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The newest addition of the Bureau of lies’ newest falsified and manipulated document about the employment figures is now out, available for viewing of the ignorant masses. The makers of the report will make sure that they drum it up for the whole world to hear, so that their plans of treachery and deceit stay well on course. Even the mature financial minds at Wall Street will accept it, because they are always in search of positive news to help their financial interests in the market.

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Economics

Friday, September 11, 2015

China's Market Meltdown: Dangers and Opportunities / Economics / Demographics

By: John_Mauldin

The buzz around Mauldin Economics’ virtual water cooler these days is El Jefe’s new documentary, China on the Edge. The timing for the online release, September 23, is propitious given the media attention to the meltdown of the Chinese market. The list of participants is impressive, and John has spent considerable time over the last few years wrapping his brain around the staggering number of variables at play in the People’s Republic of China.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 09, 2015

Job Quit Rates and Recessions / Economics / Recession 2015

By: Mike_Shedlock

Looking for Greener Pastures?

A Chicago Fed report investigates Job Switching and Wage Growth.

People generally switch jobs by quitting (rather than losing) their previous job. Furthermore, the vast majority of people observed quitting their job tend to move directly to a new job, rather than becoming unemployed or exiting the labor force. Therefore, estimates of worker quits provide a good measure of job switching in the U.S. economy.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 08, 2015

Abenomics Stalls, So What’s Japan Supposed To Do Now? / Economics / Japan Economy

By: John_Rubino

It was just three years ago that new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promised to pull Japan out of its “lost decades” by printing epic amounts of new yen. He got what he wanted from the Bank of Japan, which bought up pretty much all the available government debt with newly-created currency. After hardly changing at all in the previous seven years, the BoJ’s balance sheet — a proxy for its money creation — tripled.

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Economics

Monday, September 07, 2015

U.S. Real Wealth Weaker than GDP Stats Show / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Frank_Shostak

US real gross domestic product (GDP) grew faster than initially thought in Q2. GDP expanded at a 3.7 percent annual rate instead of the 2.3 percent rate reported last month and 0.6 percent in Q1. Most experts, in response to this figure, are now arguing that the US economy is strengthening visibly.

This, coupled with a relatively stable price level, raises the likelihood that the economy is approaching the path of healthy economic growth with stable price inflation.

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Economics

Sunday, September 06, 2015

The Failed Moral Argument for a "Living Wage" / Economics / Wages

By: MISES

Ryan McMaken writes: With Labor Day upon us, newspapers across the US will be printing op-eds calling for a mandated “living wage” and higher wages in general. In many cases, advocates for a living wage argue for outright mandates on wages; that is, a minimum wage set as an arbitrary level determined by policymakers to be at a level that makes housing, food, and health care “affordable.”

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Economics

Saturday, September 05, 2015

Establishment Survey +173K Jobs, Private Jobs +140,000; U.S. Unemployment Rate 5.1% / Economics / Employment

By: Mike_Shedlock

The establishment survey came in a weaker than expected 173,000 job. The Bloomberg Consensus estimate was 223,000 jobs.

However, the preceding two months were revised up by 44,000 and wages were strong. Bloomberg provides a nice summation of the strengths and weaknesses.

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Economics

Friday, September 04, 2015

Bye Bye Brazil Economy / Economics / Brazil

By: John_Rubino

For about a decade there, Brazil was the Latin American country that got it right. Under a socialist but apparently reasonable government they kept their budgets under control, managed the population shift from farm to city, and developed some efficient export industries that brought in plenty of hard currency. The Brazilian real held its own on foreign exchange markets and inflation was, as a result, moderate.

Then it all fell apart. The US dollar spiked, commodity prices tanked, and it was discovered that a whole range of big local players were gaming the system in various ways, sparking a corruption scandal that reaches all the way to top.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

Weapons of Economic Destruction / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

“Measurement theory shows that strong assumptions are required for certain statistics to provide meaningful information about reality. Measurement theory encourages people to think about the meaning of their data. It encourages critical assessment of the assumptions behind the analysis.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

Last Week’s Top News Had Nothing to Do With the Stock Market / Economics / US Economy

By: ...

Michael A. Robinson writes: On Thursday, right in the middle of last week’s market chaos, an important bit of news came out that you may missed.

Here’s the news: The U.S. Commerce Department sharply revised upward its second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimate. The agency now says the value of all goods and services in the nation for the second quarter grew at a seasonally adjusted 3.7% – that’s 61% higher than its earlier forecast.

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Economics

Friday, August 28, 2015

U.S. Economic Fundamentals 'Look Good' - Bullard of St. Louis Fed / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard spoke with Bloomberg's Brendan Greeley, Michael McKee and Tom Keene from the Jackson Hole economic symposium. He spoke about the outlook for monetary policy, the U.S. economy and recent market volatility. 

Bullard said that while world financial markets are volatile, U.S. fundamentals are good: "I'm not denying it's a volatile period. But let me say this. U.S. fundamentals look good….The key question for the committee, and no decisions have been made here, but the key question for the committee is would you want to change the outlook based on the volatility that we've seen over the last 10 days? And I think the answer is going to be not very much."

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Economics

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Why Devaluing the Yuan Won't Help China's Economy / Economics / China Economy

By: Frank_Shostak

Earlier this month, the Chinese government decided to depreciate its currency on three consecutive occasions. On August 13, the price of the US dollar was trading at 6.413 — an increase of 3.3 percent against July. The key factor behind the central bank’s lowering of the yuan is a sharp decline in the growth momentum of exports with the yearly rate of growth falling to minus 8.3 percent in July from 2.8 percent in June.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Why China's Economy is Deteriorating / Economics / China Economy

By: Steve_H_Hanke

               The plunging Shanghai Stock Exchange and the sudden reversal in the yuan’s appreciation have caused fears to spread beyond China’s borders. Is something wrong with the world’s growth locomotive? In a word, yes.

               The most reliable approach for the determination of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and the balance of payments is the monetary approach. Indeed, the path of an economy’s nominal GDP is determined by the course of its money supply (broadly determined).

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Economics

Monday, August 24, 2015

Japan Economy Clear Conclusions Concerning QE / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Japan was recently slammed with more bad economic news; growth contracted yet again in the second quarter. Gross Domestic Product for the world’s third largest economy fell by an annualized 1.6% in the three months ended in June.

The economic plan known as Abenomics, which promised massive money printing coupled with government spending would put the world's third largest economy on a path to sustainable growth, seems to have hit another roadblock. This latest contraction marks the third such set back since the optimistic launch of Abenomics at the end of 2012. Japan appears to be headed towards a triple dip recession.

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Economics

Sunday, August 23, 2015

Economics is Dead, and Economists Killed It / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Per L. Bylund writes: What we have seen over the course of the last eighty years is a systematic dismantling of the contribution of economics to our understanding of the social world. Whatever the cause, modern economics is now not much more than formal modeling using mathematics dressed up in economics-sounding lingo. In this sense, economics is dead as a science, assuming it was ever alive. Economics in mathematical form cannot fulfill its promises and neither the scientific literature nor advanced education in the subject provide insights that are applicable to or useful in everyday life, business, or policy.

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