Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, April 25, 2015
US Factories Crushed By Strong U.S. Dollar / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
Government statistics are always suspect, for at least one obvious reason: Modern economies are way too big and complex to measure in real-time. So virtually every number is revised in the months after its release, frequently to the point of saying something very different. But by then lots of new data has come out and no one cares about the old numbers.
Saturday, April 25, 2015
China Economic Slowdown Story - Why “Didi Dache” Is a Phrase You Need to Know / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
If all you’ve been hearing regarding China recently is noise about its economic slowdown, you need to find a better news source.
Investors need to stop worrying over China’s long-expected gradual slowdown. Do so and you likely will see, as my guest today does, the long-term growth ahead for key tech sectors in the world’s most populous nation.
I’m talking about the kind of growth that will fill investors’ portfolios with soaring profits for years to come.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
Children & Retirees: 7.5 Million Reasons Our Economy Isn’t Growing / Economics / Demographics
By: Harry_Dent
Rodney Johnson writes: A few weeks ago my lovely wife and younger daughter, who is still in high school, traveled to Texas for a birthday party. It wasn’t just any party, it was the centennial celebration for my wife’s great aunt.
More amazing than this lady’s longevity is the fact she’s not alone. She and her two sisters (my wife’s grandmother and her two great aunts) all live together, ranging in age from 91 to 100. We call it “the house of little old ladies.”
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
Characteristics of Extremely Over-Indebted Economies / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2015
By: John_Mauldin
I think it was almost two years ago that I was in Cyprus. Cyprus had just come through its crisis and was still in shell shock. I was there to get a feel for what it was like, and a number of my readers had courteously arranged for me to meet with all sorts of people and do a few presentations. A local group arranged for me to speak at the lecture hall of the Central Bank of Cyprus in Nicosia.
There were about 50 people in the room. I was busily working on Code Red at the time and had money flows, quantitative easing, and currency wars at the front of my brain. As part of my presentation, I talked about how countries would seek to use currency devaluation in order to gain an advantage over other countries – that we were getting ready to enter an era of currency wars, which would be disguised as monetary policy trying to create economic growth. Which is exactly what we have today. Every now and then I get a few things right.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 19, 2015
Michel Chevalier’s Case Against the Patent System / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Louis Rouanet writes: Michel Chevalier (1806–1879) was a very influential French economist during the second half of the nineteenth century. He is still widely known in France for being the architect of the Cobden-Chevalier Treaty of 1860 which was the free-trade agreement between France and Great Britain. Michel Chevalier is, however, less known for his major contribution to the intellectual property debate.1 Contrary to Jean Baptiste Say, Gustave de Molinari, and many other French economists, Chevalier fiercely opposed the patent system. As Fritz Machlup remarked: “Among French economists, Michel Chevalier was probably the most emphatic in the joint antagonism to tariffs and patents, declaring that both ‘stem from the same doctrine and result in the same abuses.’”
Saturday, April 18, 2015
Inflation, Central Banks, and Business Cycles / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Jonathan Newman writes: The word “inflation” means different things to different people. One popular conception of inflation focuses on prices — all prices, actually. For these people, including some economists, “inflation” means a rise in the general price level, i.e., the goods and services we buy have higher price tags.
The other conception of inflation focuses on the money supply. Economists with this focus think of inflation as an increase in the amount of money in the economy. We’ll see that viewing inflation as a rise in prices can be misleading and ambiguous especially compared to viewing inflation as an increase in the money supply.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
Greece Debt Default and Drachma By End of April? / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: GoldCore
- Greek government to withhold IMF payments according to the FT
- Prime Minister Tsipras denies preparing for default according to Reuters
- Government funds to run out by end of month
- Default would likely lead to “Grexit” and return to drachma
- EU may not withstand uncertainty surrounding break-up of monetary union
- Concern could trigger derivatives crisis and ‘Lehman moment’
- Like frogs in a pot of water that is very slowly coming to the boil
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
China Margin Debt, Trading Accounts, Construction Equipment / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
In response to my April 1, post China Margin Debt Soars to Record 1 Trillion Yuan; Another Central Bank Sponsored Bubble I received an email from reader Nicolas.
He writes ...
Read full article... Read full article...Hello Mish
Happy Monday. I find your output excellent an I hope that you are flattered that you are followed by private banks is Switzerland.
Quick question on your last note; please can you tell me what (Bloomberg/Reuters) code you use for Chinese Margin debt? i.e. where can I cross-reference the Trillion Yuan figure you quote?
Best regards and many thanks,
Nicolas
Monday, April 13, 2015
The U.S. Economic Recovery: True or False? / Economics / US Economy
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The stronger than expected February's job market report fueled expectations that the Fed will increase interest rates sooner rather than later. We believed that market reaction was a bit exaggerated, and suggested in the Gold News Monitor not taking the hike for granted. The U.S. recovery is not as strong as it is commonly believed (as it was confirmed by the downgraded Fed's economic projections) and there are many downside risks, such as Greece's crisis, stubbornly low inflation, sluggish wage growth, the Chinese and global slowdown and too strong a greenback, which may stall the Fed's hike.
Monday, April 13, 2015
New Credit Crunch Underway: Can Recession Be Far Behind? / Economics / Recession 2015
By: Mike_Shedlock
Credit Crunch Underway
Last week, Alexander Giryavets of Dynamika Capital L.L.C. pinged me with an article he had written on Recessionary Level in Credit Conditions.
His article was based on data from the March Credit Managers' Index by the National Association of Credit Management. The report is pretty damning.
First, let's take a look at some NACM snips. Emphasis in italics is mine. Following the NACM snips and some NACM explanations, we will return to a chart from Giryavets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 12, 2015
BLS Economic Propaganda, Truth – The Cure for Cognitive Dissonance / Economics / Propaganda
By: James_Quinn
“In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” ― George Orwell
Every time the BLS puts out their monthly propaganda report on the wonderful state of the U.S. jobs market and states with a straight face the unemployment rate is a measly 5.5%, their corporate mouthpieces in the mainstream cheerleader media regurgitate the fake numbers and urge you to buy stocks. The millionaire talking heads on CNBC and the corrupt bought off politicians in D.C. make broad sweeping declarations about economic recovery, strong job growth, GDP advancement, record highs in the stock market, and soaring consumer confidence.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 11, 2015
Why the American Consumer Will Never Be Back / Economics / US Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
That title may be a bit much, granted, because never is a very long time. I might instead have said “The American Consumer Won’t Be Back For A Very Long Time”. Still, I simply don’t see any time in the future that would see Americans start spending again at a rate anywhere near what would be required for an economic recovery. Looks pretty infinity and beyond to me.
However, that is by no means a generally accepted point of view in the financial press. There’s reality, and then there’s whatever it is they’re smoking, and never the twain shall meet. Admittedly, my title may be a bit provocative, but in my view not nearly as provocative, if not offensive, as Peter Coy’s at Bloomberg, who named his latest effort “US Consumers Will Open Their Wallets Soon Enough”.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 10, 2015
How an Artificial Economy Collapses Organically / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
One of the biggest news stories, almost too perfect not to be timed, was released on a day when markets closed early: Good Friday.
Conveniently not factored into major world markets was last week's horrible jobs report.
From the timing of the news, to the revisions and the real story, these numbers tell about the underlying economy. It says everything one needs to know about the broken monetary system.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 10, 2015
Confusion over US Unemployment Data / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Unemployment is the one statistic that one would have thought is easy to define: just total up the number of people on unemployment benefit and there's your answer. It is however much more complex, particularly in a large country like the United States, whose potential labour force is estimated to be 250,080,000 across all 50 states plus Washington DC. Of this total 101,479,000 are not currently employed, a ratio of over 40%, and of these only 8,575,000 are deemed to be actually unemployed. The relevant figures are here.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 10, 2015
Euro-zone Crisis - Germany’s Trade Surplus Is a Problem / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
In Code Red I wrote a great deal about trade imbalances among the various European countries, which were at the heart of the European sovereign debt problem. As the peripheral countries have tried to rebalance their trade deficits with Northern Europe and especially with Germany, they have seen their relative wages fall and deflation become a problem. Greece is the poster child.
The north-south imbalance in the Eurozone is still a problem today. In this week’s Outside the Box, I highlight a recent blog on that topic from none other than former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. He first published his blog on March 30, and it appears he is going to post to three times a week. It’s a very thoughtful commentary, and I will admit to having subscribed. He is going back to his “professor” style and communicates very clearly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 08, 2015
Economists in Glass Houses / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
For many economists, the chicken and egg question is, which came first, consumption or production? What drives growth? Let’s continue with our series on debt, in which I have been contrasting my views with those of Paul Krugman.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 06, 2015
Portrait of the Classical Gold Standard / Economics / Global Financial System
By: MISES
Marcia Christoff-Kurapovna writes: "The world that disappeared in 1914 appeared, in retrospect, something like our picture of Paradise," wrote the economist Cecil Hirsch in his June 1934 review of R.W. Hawtrey’s classic, The Art of Central Banking (1933). Hirsch bemoaned the loss of the far-sighted restraint that had once prevailed among the "bankers' banks" of the West, concluding that modern times "had failed to attain the standard of wisdom and foresight that prevailed in the 19th century."
Sunday, April 05, 2015
New Zealand Economy - There’s Trouble Brewing In Middle Earth / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Raul_I_Meijer
For the second time in three years, I’m fortunate enough to spend some time in New Zealand (or Aotearoa). In 2012, it was all mostly a pretty crazy touring schedule, but this time is a bit quieter. Still get to meet tons of people though, in between the relentless Automatic Earth publishing schedule. And of course people want to ask, once they know what I do, how I think their country is doing.
My answer is I think New Zealand is much better off than most other countries, but not because they’re presently richer (disappointing for many). They’re better off because of the potential here. Which isn’t being used much at all right now. In fact, New Zealand does about everything wrong on a political and macro-economic scale. More about that below.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 04, 2015
Is the U.S. Government Lying About Unemployment Statistics? / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes: Over the last two days, I've shown you how I gauge the health of the U.S. economy.
I've also shown you why you can't blindly trust the government's economic statistics. Not because of some conspiracy agenda... but because measuring a $17 trillion economy is extremely difficult.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 04, 2015
U.S. Jobs Report Huge Miss, +126k Half Forecasts / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Initial Reaction
For a huge change we see the existing pattern of a strong establishment survey but a poor household survey has been replaced by weakness all around.
Last month I stated "The household survey varies more widely, and the tendency is for one to catch up to the other, over time. The question, as always, is which way?"
Read full article... Read full article...