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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, October 31, 2011

Is the U.S. Consumer Spending Surge a 'Dance of Economic Death'? / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe latest economic headline came as a surprise to the pundits, though it actually makes perfect sense from a psychological standpoint. On Friday the Associated Press informed us of "Americans spending more with income almost flat," per the headline. At first glance this seems almost counterintuitive, yet the sub-heading of this A.P. story put it into perspective: "Americans find tiny returns on savings and decide to spend."

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Economics

Monday, October 31, 2011

Sectors Most Likely To Gain Jobs By 2015 / Economics / Employment

By: EconMatters

The job market is terrible, and the situation isn’t getting any better. The U.S. national unemployment rate is stagnant at 9.1% in September, and the jobs picture across America at state level didn't change much either, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Economics

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Happy 7th Billion Person Planet Earth / Economics / Demographics

By: Trader_Mark

If the United Nations estimates are anywhere near correct, today marks the day the world's population hits 7 billion.  Could be off a few days one way or the other, but you get the gist.  I actually did a story about this in 2008 - looks like it came a few months earlier than predicted!  [Jun 20, 2008: World Population to Hit 7 Billion by 2012] Obviously this is not a 'fast money' trading event, but considering it was just twelve years ago the planet hit 6 billion, it's a pretty amazing milestone.  Projections are for another two billion in about 2 generations (2050ish).  From an investing perspective the growth of the world's middle class is an important development, as is the wage/labor pressure from hundreds of millions continuing to flood the world's labor markets.  Tom Stevenson from Fidelity takes a look at three key outcomes from this, some of which we've discussed quite a bit a few years ago.  Note - Nebraska farmland is up 20-30% year over year, as the 'farmland' trade is one of the big long term winners.

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Economics

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Strawberry Fields Finance, Debt Growth - Economic Contraction / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLong ago the Beatles sang that nothing is real but its nothing to get hung about. In the global finance system however, cracking sounds are real and able to mightily hang up business as usual.  Europe's sovereign debt financing charade has reached daily heights of unreality as the Greek crisis shifts to rising bond rates on Italian debt, with Spanish, French - and German - debt financing crises promised, or threatened for later on. Maybe soon.

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Economics

Saturday, October 29, 2011

U.S. Consumer Spending is Likely to Show Tepid Growth Once Again / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Real consumer spending increased 0.5% in September after a steady reading in August. In the third quarter, consumer spending increased at an annual rate of 2.4% vs. 0.7% in the second quarter. At first blush this is impressive, but digging further leads to a different story. The saving rate of households fell to 3.6% in September, putting the quarterly average at 4.1% vs. 5.0% in the first-half of the year.

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Economics

Friday, October 28, 2011

U.S. Real GDP Momentum Pickup Buys Time Before Fed Acts Again / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal gross domestic product (GDP) of the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5% in the third quarter after registering an abysmally slow performance in the first-half of the year (+0.9%). The headline and details of the third quarter GDP report are both encouraging given that considerations of a double dip surfaced in recent weeks.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Near Recession Low in October / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped 6.6 points to 39.8 in October. This reading is approaching the recession low of 25.3 recorded in February 2009. The Present Situation Index fell 7.0 points to 26.3, while the Expectations Index dropped to 48.7 from 55.1 in September. Essentially, the latest consumer confidence numbers are raising a red flag in an already weak economic environment.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

The Real Debt Crisis Contagion Risk / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Dr_Martenson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAround here we like to track things from the outside in, as the initial movements at the periphery tend to give us an early warning of when things might go wrong at the center. It is always the marginal country, weakest stock in a sector, or fringe population that gives us the early warning that trouble is afoot. For example, rising food stamp utilization and poverty levels in the US indicate that economic hardship is progressing from the lower socioeconomic levels up towards the center -- that is, from the outside in.

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Economics

Monday, October 24, 2011

Savings, The Paradox of Thrift Debunked / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Colin_Twiggs

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEver since John Maynard Keynes popularized the Paradox of Thrift, economists, central bankers and politicians have labored under the misapprehension that high levels of savings are bad for the economy and inhibit growth. The Paradox of Thrift simply states: Increased savings means there are less buyers for goods produced, so the nation as a whole will tend to produce less.

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Economics

Monday, October 24, 2011

The Great Depression 80 Years Later, Same Culprits, Same Rage / Economics / Economic Depression

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe young man stands on the edge of his porch
The days were short and the father was gone
There was no one in the town and no one in the field
This dusty barren land had given all it could yield
I've been kicked off my land at the age of sixteen
And I have no idea where else my heart could have been
I placed all my trust at the foot of this hill
And now I am sure my heart can never be still
So collect your courage and collect your horse
And pray you never feel this same kind of remorse
Dust Bowl Dance - Mumford & Sons

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Economics

Sunday, October 23, 2011

Economic Growth Is Obsolete / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe last 'classic economic growth interval' can be almost exactly defined as the years 2004-2007.

After that, we enter a zone of permanent disaster for the late, unlamented by myself, Growth Economy which can only and does only operate in a series of boom-slump cycles. What we have now, since 2008 is however different: this slump is vastly greater than the nicely doctored official economic numbers can show. True numbers would not only be terrifying, but also hard to believe.

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Economics

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Revisionist History and the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Andy_Sutton

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOver the past several years, the term ‘Great Depression’ has made a grand re-entry into the American mainstream and has as a consequence become perhaps one of the most misunderstood terms. We are told it was everything that it wasn’t and that it wasn’t everything that it was. Like many important historical events, there is a good bit of revisionist history at work with regards to those dark 12 years in American history when it seemed as though there was nothing but despair and governments tripping over themselves to fix something they didn’t have the tools or the business monkeying with in the first place. Think of it like a butcher going to work on the engine of a ’57 Chevy with baseball bat. The results are predictable.

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Economics

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Why the U.S. Recession Forecasters Are Wrong (For Now) / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSpeculation over the direction of the economy continues to take center stage. With the presidential election coming up in 2012, the economy will undoubtedly be the central issue on the campaign trail and will receive even more attention than it has up until now. Many analysts have made waves lately in forecasting a "double dip" recession, with at least a couple of high profile analysts claiming the recession has already arrived.

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Economics

Friday, October 21, 2011

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Index of Leading Indicators, Small But Noteworthy Positive Signals / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims dropped 6,000 to 403,000 during the week ended October 15. The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims (403,000) is the lowest since the week ended April 23, 2011. That said, initial jobless claims are still holding at a worrisome level. In other words, a large drop in initial jobless claims is necessary to say that the worst is behind us. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, rose 25,000 to 3.719 million.

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Economics

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Does The Economy Need a Referee? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Jeff_Berwick

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI recently appeared on Max Keiser’s "On The Edge" program.  Unbeknownst to the viewer, we were having major communication problems.  Max only could hear a small portion of what I said and I, likewise.  But, right at the very end of the interview the communications worked again… that’s when the interview finally got interesting.  Max stated that we “need a referee” in the economy.  I replied, “I disagree.  We don’t need a referee, I’m an anarchist…”

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Economics

Thursday, October 20, 2011

U.S. Inflation Shows Signs of Moderation in September / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) moved up 0.3% in September, following gains of 0.5% and 0.5% in July and August, respectively. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose only 0.05% in September after a 0.24% increase in August. The September increase is the smallest gain since March 2011 (see Chart 1). These signs of moderation in inflation are noteworthy because they allow the Fed to focus on growth in the inflation-growth debate.

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Economics

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Murder of the Savers, Killed by Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSavers and pensioners! Your murderers need no revolution to storm your stately homes and palaces...

IT'S NOW 100 years since Great Britain established its welfare state. Shortly after, and as the First World War kicked off, it abandoned the free exchange of bullion for notes under the classical Gold Standard.

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Economics

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Nouriel Roubini's Global Research Brand vs. His Prescription for the Economy / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNouriel Roubini has called the economic crisis rather well. He gas gone on to turn success at RGE into an "economic brand". The Institutional Investor has an 8-page article on How Nouriel Roubini Became a Research Brand.

The article also notes that Roubini has been in the inner economic circles at the World Economic Forum at Davos, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the U.S. Congress.

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Economics

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Fed’s Dual Mandate Not Workin, Inflation and Unemployment Are Rising / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

We are all aware that the Fed has a dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment. But what may come as a surprise to most is that they have a distinct preference in their mandates. The Federal Reserve under Ben Bernanke has a clear bias towards fulfilling the goal of maximum employment. Given the situation where unemployment is high and prices are relatively stable, the Fed has opted to pursue a policy of pursuing higher inflation in the hopes of engendering lower unemployment rates.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

U.S. Economy Operating in Midst of a Long-term Slump, Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management write a "Quarterly Review and Outlook" that is a must-read for me. This quarter they focus on US monetary policy, noting that "After peaking at 1.69 in the second quarter of 2010, M2 velocity declined for four consecutive quarters, and we estimate that a major contraction in velocity to 1.59 is likely for the third quarter." (I mentioned the importance of the velocity of money in judging inflation vs. deflation prospects in this week's e-letter, too.)

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