Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, December 04, 2012
Phony Global Economic Recovery is an Illusion / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Michael_Pento
Many investors still hope that the global economy will experience a significant rebound in 2013. I guess it is human nature to assume the optimistic position that our economic fate will turn to the upside with each new calendar.
Tuesday, December 04, 2012
Will the U.S. Economy Follow Brazil’s Rapid Drop in GDP Growth? / Economics / US Economy
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: With the world economy slowing, it is possible that we could see a global recession in 2013. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth for many countries has significantly declined in the third quarter of 2012. While some countries experienced an increase in GDP growth in the first part of the year, it’s quite apparent going into the third quarter that, for most nations, the estimates were far too high.
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Monday, December 03, 2012
The Myth of Economic Austerity / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Philipp_Bagus
Many politicians and commentators such as Paul Krugman claim that Europe's problem is austerity, i.e., there is insufficient government spending. The common argument goes like this: Due to a reduction of government spending, there is insufficient demand in the economy leading to unemployment. The unemployment makes things even worse as aggregate demand falls even more, causing a fall in government revenues and an increase in government deficits. European governments pressured by Germany (which did not learn from the supposedly fateful policies of Chancellor Heinrich Brüning) then reduce government spending even further, lowering demand by laying off public employees and cutting back on government transfers.
Sunday, December 02, 2012
What Is the End Game? Exponential Growth in Population, Energy and Debt / Economics / Demographics
By: DK_Matai
As Helen Keller once said, "To be blind is bad, but worse is to have eyes and not to see!" Is the greatest shortcoming of the human race our inability to understand the exponential function? The Earth's human population reached 1 billion in 1804, 2 billion in 1927, 3 billion in 1959, 4 billion in 1974, 5 billion in late 1986 and 6 billion in late 1999. In late 2011, we crossed 7 billion people on this planet and we are projected to cross 8 billion in 2025.
Sunday, December 02, 2012
U.S. Recession 2013 100% Risks Follow On / Economics / Recession 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short : Professor Piger updated his recession probability model that caused so much attention early November (See “Debunking 100% probability of recession“). As we forecast last month, the probability index undertook a “revision” of epic proportions as displayed below (01-Dec-12 vintage):
Saturday, December 01, 2012
Is the U.S. Economy Already Beginning to Stumble Again? / Economics / Recession 2013
By: Sy_Harding
As it has in each of the last three years, the economic recovery in the U.S. stumbled this summer, prompting the Federal Reserve to provide another round of stimulus, QE3, in September.
For the last several months it seemed like it wasn’t needed, as subsequent economic reports for August and September indicated the economy was recovering nicely on its own.
Friday, November 30, 2012
Where’s Iran’s Money? / Economics / Iran
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Since I first estimated Iran’s hyperinflation last month , I have received inquiries as to why I have never so much as mentioned Iran’s money supply. That’s a good question, which comes as no surprise. After all, inflations of significant degree and duration always involve a monetary expansion.
Friday, November 30, 2012
Hyperinflation, Who's Right, Mike Shedlock 'MISH' or Peter Schiff? / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Peter Schiff was on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster on Tuesday. For that show, he was asked, and he agreed to debate me on hyperinflation. Thus, I semi-expected to be on the show as well.
I even received email confirmation from Demetri, the Capital Account producer last Sunday.
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Friday, November 30, 2012
NY Fed Mortgage Debt Data Says No US Economic Recovery / Economics / US Debt
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Let me try to keep this short and still make the point I want to make. Lately, I've seen a huge amount of people talking about an economic recovery, certainly in the US, so much so that people who disagree with that assessment are labeled "doomer" or things like that. Again. It's an easy thing to do.
Friday, November 30, 2012
Turkish Economy, Is Turkey Golden? / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Recently, Moody’s Investors Service took some wind from Turkey’s sails, when it declined to upgrade Turkey’s credit rating to investment grade. Moody’s cited external imbalances, along with slowing domestic growth, as factors in its decision. This move is in sharp contrast to the one Fitch made earlier this month, when it upgraded Turkey to investment grade. Moody’s decision not to upgrade Turkey, and its justification, left me somewhat underwhelmed – given how well the Turkish economy has done in recent years.
Friday, November 30, 2012
In 1929, Deflation Started in Europe Before Overtaking the U.S. / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
What Happens in Europe Will Not Stay in Europe
More than 1,500 years after the fact, scholars still debate the causes of the Roman Empire's fall.
What historians do agree on is that the crumbling empire's final days were marked by economic contraction, a struggle to fund Rome's routine affairs and excessive debt.
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Thursday, November 29, 2012
France In Big Trouble, EU Just Lost Another Prop / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Graham_Summers
Meanwhile, as Greece continues to distract the markets, France, the other primary prop for the EU besides Germany, is now experiencing an economic contraction on par with that of 2008-2009.
Indeed, France’s September’s auto sales numbers were worse than those of September 2008 (the month Lehman collapsed). The country’s PMI reading is back to April 2009 levels. Even the French Central Bank, which would hold off as long as possible before unveiling bad news, has announced the country will re-enter recession before year-end.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2012
The Fed’s Most Ominous Economic Indicator! / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
Fed Chairman Bernanke has been pounding the table publicly and privately, stressing how important it is that Congress reach an agreement preventing the economy from going over the fiscal cliff at year-end. You’ve seen the numbers estimating the impact on the already anemic economy.
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Economic Impact of Super-Storm Sandy and the Electoral Blues Update / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
Earlier this month we reviewed the impact of Hurricane Sandy and the presidential election on the shopping behavior of American consumers by comparing this year's behavior with what we had observed during the 2008 election campaign. In both cases we witnessed a significant fall-off in consumer demand that was broadly coincidental with the election:
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Capital Formation and the Fiscal Cliff, Economic Perception Vs Reality / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
In today’s economic environment, we often complain about volatility and uncertainty, but there is one thing I think we can be fairly certain of: taxes are going up. I constantly try to impress upon my kids, most of whom are now adults, that ideas and actions have consequences. In today’s letter we will look at some of the consequences of an increase in taxes. Please note that this is different from arguing whether taxes should rise or fall. For all intents and purposes that debate is over. As investors, our job is to deal with reality. We must play the hand we are dealt. Taxation is a complex issue, but let’s see if a few word pictures can help us understand what we face.
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Age Of Illusionists, Focus on Government Spending and Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Watching Barack Obama and Mitt Romney duel in the presidential campaign should have convinced the spectators that we live in an age of illusionists. Few of the assertions and conjectures thrown around have been subjected to what the political chattering classes deem to be the indignity of factual verification.
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Economic Deception At The Heart Of The U.S. Fiscal Cliff / Economics / Government Spending
By: Dan_Amerman
Truth Testing The Narrative
Among many politicians and much of the media there is an accepted narrative about deficits, taxes and the so-called "Fiscal Cliff". It goes something like the following:
"The United States is running massive deficits that are bankrupting the country. These deficits are so high because of the Bush era tax cuts.
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Monday, November 26, 2012
Marc Faber Forecasts Keynesian Catastrophe for Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy
By: Videos
Marc Faber in this 47 minute presentation from a few months ago that shows why the world economy is heading for a Keynesian catastrophe and what opportunities are likely to emerge for institutional investors if sovereign debt continues. He assesses the possible impact of social and political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East, and how hedge funds can invest in emerging markets.
Friday, November 23, 2012
Economics Can't Violate the Laws of Physics: Rising Systemic Risk and Multiple Black Swans / Economics / Economic Theory
By: DK_Matai
In the aftermath of the colossal damage caused around the world by extreme weather induced floods, fuel and food shortages, questions are constantly being posed about the improbability of endless growth of human population and over consumption on a planet with finite resources. There are limits to growth and humanity is colliding with them head on. High fuel and food prices and floods caused by climate chaos are all symptomatic of those growth limits.
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Ireland and Iceland : A Tale of Two PIIIGS / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Shostak
There were a lot of commentaries regarding the Ireland and Iceland 2008–2012 financial crises. Most of the commentaries were confined to the description of the events without addressing the essential causes of the crises. We suggest that providing a detailed description of events cannot be a substitute for economic analysis, which should be based on the essential causes behind a crisis.