Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Understanding the Difference Between Deflation and Hyperinflation: Deflationists Rebuttal / Economics / Deflation
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
1) The euro is going to crash against the dollar because European bank losses dwarf those in the US This bit of logic proves that deflationists (those predicting deflation in the US) don't understand deflation. Whether or not European bank losses dwarf those in the US, it is the euro that will rally against the dollar. Why? Because the euro zone, unlike the US, is about to experience real, honest-to-god deflation. Ironically, Deflation is staring deflationists in the face, and they are too blind to see it.
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Wednesday, February 18, 2009
European Banks $25 Trillion Financial Black Hole Hitting Euro-zone Economy / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Oxbury_Research
Happy that Oxbury now allows for immediate online feedback on its revamped website; I rather enjoy the opportunity to deal with the lesser lights among my readers. With respect to those who offered suggestions and reasonable criticisms, I'll suffice here with a nod of thanks. It's more to the fools that I address the following.
There's a lot of confusion about markets and their relationship to the economy. It's a confusion that arises directly from one's sense of self. What do I mean by that? Let me explain.
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Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Sales Tax Time Bomb Explodes as Consumption in Freefall / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are reading Holiday Blues: Weakness Unmatched In 35 Years
Consumption: From Excess to Freefall
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Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Why Deflation is Better for the Economy than Inflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Oxbury_Research
Between a Rock and a Hard Place - There was something about the article I wrote last week for Bourbon & Bayonets that touched a nerve with a lot of people. There wasn't a lot of middle-ground; readers loved it, hated it, or were annoyed with me for complaining without proposing a solution. I'm glad I was able to stir the pot and get something controversial enough on paper to bring out the passion on both sides of the arguments. This article isn't written to further my points and persuade those who disagreed with me. Instead I want to purpose what I see to be the best potential solution to a very difficult problem. I agree with the readers who took issue with my empty complaints. Today's article is written for those who see the problems, but wonder what choices or alternatives we have to current policy. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
U.S. Economic Weakness Unmatched in 35 Years / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
One of the best gauges of an economy is tax collections. No one pays taxes unless they have to, so collections are a real-world, real-time analysis of the US economy. And the best source I know of for tracking taxes is The Liscio Report, by Philippa Dunne & Doug Henwood.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
UK Recession Watch- Britain's Great Depression? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The purpose of this analysis is to map out to the trend of the UK recession for 2009 and 2010 in terms of depth, the bottom and the potential recovery. The most recently released GDP data shows that the UK economy actually did fall off of the edge of a cliff during the fourth quarter of 2008 by contracting by a shocking 1.5% GDP. This compares against the governments recent forecast for 2% GDP contraction for the whole of 2009 which paints a picture of gross under estimation of the actual extent of the degree of economic contraction that is taking place at this time, and hence the adoption of the easy going terminology of "Quantative Easing" to hide the truth of money printing on a scale that could bankrupt Britain, the evidence of which has been played out in the currency markets with sterling's fall to a 23 year low against the dollar, a fall of over 30% in barely 6 months. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 16, 2009
Eastern European Economies About to Explode in a Chain Reaction of Debt Defaults / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Whitney
Eastern Europe is about to blow. If it does, it could take much of the EU with it. It's an emergency situation but there are no easy solutions. The IMF doesn't have the resources for a bailout of this size and the recession is spreading faster than relief efforts can be organized. Finance ministers and central bankers are running in circles trying to put out one fire after another. Its only a matter of time before they are overtaken by events. If one country is allowed to default, the dominoes could begin to tumble through the whole region. This could trigger dramatic changes in the political landscape. The rise of fascism is no longer out of the question. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 16, 2009
Bankrupt Britain: Europe Blames America While U.K Warned of Bankruptcy / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Chris_Tew
Niall Ferguson, respected economic historian, warns of other European countries facing an Iceland style bankruptcy . 'Switzerland is first in line… and Britain is not far behind ,' he says.
While many politicians in Europe like to shift the blame for the credit crisis to the U.S. Niall points out that excessive lending and leveraging was much more endemic in countries such as Germany and the U.K.
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Monday, February 16, 2009
US, UK, Eurozone Banks Face Collapse: Global Banking System Insolvent / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Mike_Shedlock
With all the hype from various US dollar bears about the crisis with US banks, few on this side of the Atlantic are paying any attention to happenings in Europe. For those who look, a strong case can be made that European banks are as bad off if not much worse off than their US counterparts.
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Monday, February 16, 2009
Obama Economic Stimulus: Truth and Consquences / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Never before have I learned so much so quickly from my readers as I have now — all just by reading the thousands of comments you have posted on my blog in the past week!
One of your key questions: Will the new Obama stimulus and banking bailouts succeed or fail?
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Monday, February 16, 2009
Meat, Milk and Motors: The New China Syndrome / Economics / China Economy
By: Robert_Singer
August 21, theatres around the nation screened the documentary I.O.U.S.A. and a live discussion with America's most notable financial leaders and policy experts, including Warren Buffett; William Niskanen, chairman of the Cato Institute; Pete Peterson, senior chairman of The Blackstone Group and former U.S. Comptroller General, Dave Walker. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Japan's Economy Collapses into Economic Depression / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Japan today released truly shocking GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2008, the Japanese economy contracted by 3.3% which equates to an annualised rate of 13.2% which is on par with magnitude of contraction that is associated with an economic depression. All exporting countries are experiencing a crash in exports which fell by 14% in the quarter, as western consumers stop buying and start saving. Japans industrial plunged by nearly 10% in December 2008, down 20% on the year earlier.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 15, 2009
What if the World Stops Spending for Good / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Kevin_Geary
All the politicians and policy makers around the world are trying to do what actually may be impossible.
They are trying to get banks to lend again and they are trying to get "Joe Public" (consumers) to spend again. Nothing they are doing is working so far, and nothing they are likely to do will get banks to ease credit again, nor people around the world to spend again like there's no tomorrow, or in other words, like they did before yesterday.
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Sunday, February 15, 2009
China’s Stimulus Ignites Economy / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: China's giant $585 billion (4 trillion yuan) economic stimulus package is showing signs of taking effect. Economists now project that China will be the likely leader of an elusive worldwide economic recovery. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Global Recession, United States Economy in Least Worst Shape / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks Writes: Americans are beginning to realize the gravity of the current U.S. economic situation. After the new Treasury Secretary spoke earlier this week he left us with a very uncomfortable feeling: This problem is huge, and no one seems to have a real answer.
Still, the government feels it must produce an answer and prove that it is the ONLY entity that can fix this mess — via hundreds of billions (perhaps trillions) of U.S. dollars.
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Sunday, February 15, 2009
Anatomy of the Global Economic Downturn / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: William_R_Thomson
Business Times Singapore 13 February 2009 -FAR from being at, or even near, the trough of the economic and financial system crisis, are we still staring into the abyss? And if things have to get worse before they get better, how much worse, and for how long? Is a 'relief rally' likely in equity markets before long? The Business Times invited a group of experts (who correctly predicted that the crisis would be far worse than most people expected) to tell us where things are likely to go from here - and what kind of investment portfolio to build against an uncertain future. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 15, 2009
UK Official Unemployment Now Above 2.1 million Real 7.9million / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK unemployment shot up by 48,000 for November 08 data to 1.97 million, and remains on target to bust above 2 million on release of data for December 2008. The unemployment claimant count soared by 11% for January to 1.28 million, up a shocking 129,000 on the month and confirming that the pace of unemployment is accelerating as the economy fell over the cliff during the fourth quarter.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Asian Economies In Free Fall as Exports Crash / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are looking into details of Asia's Export Economies .
Staggering falls in exports across Asia have shocked economic analysts and ended all claims that the global slump may be nearing its bottom. The IMF's growth forecast for Asia this year is just 2.7 percent—less than a third of the 9 percent growth rate of 2007. The prediction is a full percentage point less than during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 14, 2009
World Trade Collapsing, Over-leveraged Bankrupt European Banks / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
- Time for a Reality Check
- World Trade Is Falling Off a Cliff
- European Bank Losses Dwarf Those in the US
- Geithner: "You Can't Handle the Truth"
- Earnings Will Get Even Worse
It is not just the US that is in recession. The world is slowing down, and rapidly. This week we quickly survey the rest of the world, and then come back to the US. We follow up with the implications for corporate earnings worldwide, and specifically address my speculations about earnings forecasts for 2009.
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Saturday, February 14, 2009
The Road To Economic Recovery Has Potholes / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Oxbury_Research
Let's take care of some old business first.
When I suggested a closer look at long positions in GE and BAC last week, I did not expect each of them to spike violently in two days. That was part luck.
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