Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Contradictory Economic Reports Whipsaw Investor Expectations / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: No wonder this economy is so hard to figure out: The economic reports are as volatile as the economy itself.
Just when the dreaded "R" word seemed to be creeping back into the daily office chatter, a few economic reports last week seemed to reaffirm that the enhanced pessimism may be a tad bit early.
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Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Tale of Two Shopping Malls / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_Tustain
"...Overcapacity – first of credit, then of real estate – drove the price of renting sharply lower, bankrupting cautious investors along with big borrowers..."
A TEXAN CUSTOMER who came to see me a few months ago told me a story which illustrates the fine mess we're in.
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Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Chancellor Darling Pushes Crumbling British Economy Over the Edge / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Gordon Browns Darling chancellor finally showed signs of cracking-up at the week-end as the strain of continually toeing Gordon Browns party line of ignoring the financial and economics fundamentals by painting a repetitively bright picture for the British economy and financial system finally got to him.
He commented: "Economic times are arguably the worst they've been in 60 years… I think it's going to be more profound and long-lasting than people thought".
All Gordon Brown could respond with was "Et tu brutus", as his premierships final days fast resemble a shakespearean tragedy.
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Monday, September 01, 2008
Japan Economic Stimulus Plan Will Not Prevent Recession / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes: Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda will spend about $108 billion (11.7 trillion yen) on a stimulus package that critics say is more of an attempt to salvage political support than it is a serious effort to rescue an economy teetering on the brink of recession.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 01, 2008
The US Economy and Global Monetary Disorder / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon," so said Milton Friedman. After that it was down hill. The Chicago school so defined inflation and deflation that they largely severed the monetary root from which these phenomena spring. Hence a stable price level was seen as the ideal. (Even the great Knut Wicksell subscribed to the fallacy of the stable price level). Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 01, 2008
Can Exports Save US Economy from Recession? / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Since the start of the U.S. housing downturn we've been told that consumers were in trouble. After the subprime market shakeout we were told our economy was in trouble. And after credit tightened up we were told to expect an inevitable U.S. recession.
But yet ... we're not in a recession. At least not technically speaking since that is defined as two quarters of negative GDP growth.
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Monday, September 01, 2008
Darling Says UK in Worst Economic Crisis for 60 Years / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Telegraph is reporting Britain in grip of worst economic crisis for 60 years, admits Alistair Darling . Britain is in the grip of its worst economic crisis for 60 years, Alistair Darling has admitted.The Chancellor of the Exchequer warns that the slump is going to be "more profound and long-lasting than people thought".
In an astonishingly frank interview, Mr Darling admits that voters are "p***** off" with Labour and says the party must recover the "zeal" which won it three successive general elections. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Credit Crisis Pushing World Economy Into a Soft Depression / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
It's All About the Spread- The Coming Bank Credit Crunch
- More Thoughts on Fannie and Freddie
- Who Is Holding the Old Maid?
When is the credit crisis going to end? How will we know? The credit crisis is getting ready to enter its second phase. This week we examine what that means, and what the economic environment will look like over the coming quarters. We also (sadly) re-visit Freddie and Fannie and examine the risks that they put into the markets.
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Saturday, August 30, 2008
Easing EuroZone Inflation Sends Euro Tumbling / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting European Economic Confidence Drops, Inflation Eases . Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Europeans' confidence in the economic outlook fell more than economists forecast this month as the economy teetered on the brink of a recession. Inflation unexpectedly slowed.
The euro pared gains after the reports, which signaled the slump in economic growth is extending through the third quarter and a 20 percent drop in oil prices from a record $147.27 a barrel last month is easing inflation pressures. Consumer-price increases are still above the European Central Bank's limit, prompting policy makers including Axel Weber to indicate they are in no hurry to cut interest rates even as expansion slows.
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Thursday, August 28, 2008
China Heading for Post Olympics Economic Bust? / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Something is going on in China that simply does not add up. Let's start with the GDP. ChinaView is reporting China think tank forecasts GDP growth at 10.2% in Q3 .
BEIJING, Aug. 8 (Xinhua) -- China will record a GDP growth of 10.2 percent in the third quarter, roughly the same as the second-quarter level, according to a report released on Friday by the State Information Center, a government think tank. The report said consumption would continue to be a major driving force for the national economy. However, auto and home purchases ebbed notably in the first half, adversely affecting consumption in the third quarter. I doubt 10.2% growth is anywhere close to sustainable in a world economy slowing so fast that a global recession is visible on the horizon. Furthermore China has a major pollution mess that needs to be addressed. China is poisoning its land, air, water, and most importantly its citizens.
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Thursday, August 28, 2008
Growing Herd Of American White Elephants as Corporations Shrink / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Harvard Illinois, located only a half hour or so from where I live, is home to very large white elephant. Please consider the story of the White Elephant of Harvard .
When the sun sets in Harvard, the lights inside the empty Motorola plant power up and a bright glow arches across the sky in this small farm town.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Soft Canadian Job Market Masked By Public Sector Hiring Binge / Economics / Canada
By: Mike_Shedlock
One expects to hear ridiculous statements continually in the US, particularly from Bernanke, Paulson, President Bush, and various commentators on CNBC.However, the US does not have a monopoly silly economic commentary by any means. Tom Jeffries at radio station CKNW Vancouver (see the audio links on the right hand side of this blog - a new one is posted every week or so as time permits) sent me a link to an article on the Canadian job market containing comments best described as "That's Loonie".
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Thursday, August 28, 2008
Economic Depression: Who will Suffer the Least? / Economics / Economic Depression
By: John_Browne
Though few may have noticed, the past few weeks may be regarded as a global economic turning point. Evidence is mounting that the United States is entering a recession, with increasing signs that it could morph into a depression. While the current Administration appears resigned to bail out or nationalize large tracts of American commerce, the presidential candidates drift towards Great Society era spending proposals. At the same time, America’s principal economic rivals appear to be charting courses that are not in line with U.S. interests. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Stagflation Becoming an Economic Reality / Economics / Stagflation
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke didn't use the "S" word - stagflation - but he might as well have.
On Friday, the U.S. central bank chief said that the financial crisis that has hammered the U.S. market is combining with rising inflation to eviscerate American economy. Together, the two forces are making it extremely difficult for the Fed to restore economic stability in the U.S. market.
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Wednesday, August 27, 2008
The United States of America is the Next Argentina / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
DON'T CRY FOR ME ARGENTINA SAVE YOUR TEARS FOR YOURSELF - While bankers do control the issuance of credit, they cannot control themselves. Bankers are the fatal flaw in their deviously opaque system that has substituted credit for money and debt for savings. The bankers have spread their credit-based system across the world by catering to basic human needs and ambition and greed; and while human needs can be satisfied, ambition and greed cannot—and the bankers' least of all. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Soaring Savings Rate Heralds End of Consumerism / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
In Revisiting the M3 Contraction I stated " consumers are saving, rather than spending their stimulus checks ". Some found that statement hard to believe. Let's take a look. Sev writes: " Mish, the argument that more people are saving is something I find hard to believe. Their bills are skyrocketing and "price" increases are eating into their monthly costs. Maybe some have paid down bills but I would bet the vast majority don't have the means. Now maybe ultra rich people are moving their vast sums into perceived safer investment vehicles but the thought that actual saving is increasing I don't think makes complete sense.
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Thursday, August 21, 2008
Revisiting US Money Supply M3 Contraction / Economics / Money Supply
By: Mike_Shedlock
Many have been writing asking how the chart and commentary in M3 Contraction - The Future Is Now can possibly be correct. Here is the chart and a snip of text once again for convenience. The key sentence below is in RED. The Telegraph is reporting Sharp US money supply contraction points to Wall Street crunch ahead .
The US money supply has experienced the sharpest contraction in modern history, heightening the risk of a Wall Street crunch and a severe economic slowdown in coming months.
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Thursday, August 21, 2008
Collateral Economic Damage in the War Between Inflation and Deflation / Economics / Money Supply
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The shooting-match between inflation in prices and deflation in assets is still a long way from won..."
WHICH WAY now for financial assets? Given what pumped them up, starting in late 2002, you're better off asking which way for money itself.
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Wednesday, August 20, 2008
US Recession with Inflation or Deflation? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Bruce_Allen
"One foot on the brake and one on the gas, hey! " --Sammy Hagar, "I Can't Drive 55" It's the summer of 2008 in the U.S. . Recession is imminent, if not already here, and debate rages as to whether it will be accompanied by inflation, giving us that 70's show--stagflation. Most respected economists insist the inflation risk is small; a number of others think it's high. We examine the arguments, dividing them into Things We Know and Things We Suspect.
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Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Stagflation a Weapon of Mass Wealth Destruction / Economics / Stagflation
By: Richard_C_Cook
U.S. wholesale prices in July 2008 grew at the fastest rate since 1981. The cost of materials has risen 9.8 percent in the last twelve months, according to government data. While gasoline prices fell the week of August 18 to $3.74 a gallon, they remain far higher than the $2.40 a gallon of mid-2005. Meanwhile, the price of food at the grocery store continues to climb, while consumer purchasing power remains stagnant.Read full article... Read full article...