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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Manipulated, Corrupted and Unreliable Government Data Points to Hyperinflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Stephen_Lendman


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWalter "John" Williams thinks out of the box. He makes disquieting reading, but you won't find him in the mainstream. At least not often. He runs a "Shadow Government Statistics" site with an electronic by-subscription newsletter. Anyone can access some of his data and occasional special reports. They can also assess his reasoning. In his judgment, government data are manipulated, corrupted and unreliable. He's not alone thinking that.

First, through technical changes over time in how data are collected and/or interpreted. The intent is to portray a more rosy scenario and ignore real world experiences of ordinary people. Calculating the CPI is an example:

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Economics

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Inflationary Demand Destruction Delusion  / Economics / Inflation

By: Captain_Hook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDemand destruction refers to the effect of a rising price on a good, service, or commodity, where a rising price has the increasing effect of curbing demand. Central planners live under the assumption the above condition set applies to commodities within current circumstances, which we categorize as quasi-hyperinflationary times at present. Here, the understanding is monetization efforts aside for definitional purposes; along with recognizing True Money Supply (TMS) growth rates have been contracting in the States, and nowhere near what could be even be considered high levels, the theory is lags associated with accelerated gains witnessed previously are still working through the system sufficiently to export reactionary inflation in emerging markets that reside on the very cusp of potential hyperinflationary conditions.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Friday's US Employment Report and the Stock Market / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Friday's reaction to the employment report was somewhat of a surprise, given that fewer job losses were “created”, however what spooked everyone was the big jump in the unemployment rate. The report left a sour taste in investor's mouths, given the good news from the merger front (Verizon and Alltel) as well as good numbers from Wal-Mart (the “main” recipient of the rebate checks). Energy prices were in full retreat earlier in the week, but that reversed with a vengeance by the end of the week, as oil prices rose by their largest daily amount ever.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

UK Producer Price Inflation Soars Suggesting Stagflationary Recession / Economics / Stagflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK Producer Price inflation soared in May to 8.6% for the price of output of manufactured goods to levels not seen since the early 1980's stagflationary recession. The trend not only signals a halt to further rate cuts but increasingly the expectations are that despite sharply lower economic growth, UK interest rates will be forced higher as inflationary forces make themselves visible in the CPI data that currently stands at the Bank of England's upper limit of 3%.

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Economics

Monday, June 09, 2008

The Wealth Effect Goes into Reverse / Economics / Liquidity Bubble

By: Chris_Ciovacco

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn our current global economic environment, the number of moving parts for the individual investor to track and attempt to analyze is often overwhelming. Without a systematic approach to the global asset markets, it is virtually impossible to discern the relative importance of an almost infinite number of inputs. While it is a tall order, we'll attempt to highlight the some of the key moving parts of the economic engine in terms of the possible long-term impact on your portfolio and purchasing power.

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Economics

Monday, June 09, 2008

UK Heads for Stagflation as Factory Price Inflation Soars to New Record / Economics / Inflation

By: Mark_OByrne

Gold closed at $895.50 in New York Friday and was up $23.30 and silver closed at $17.37 and was up 30 cents. In the New York Globex market gold subsequently rallied to $902.20 late Friday. Both traded sideways in Asia this morning prior to rallying higher in early European trading.

The gas explosion in Western Australia will further curtail supply of gold from that part of the world. It has led to the loss of some 30% of the state's gas supplies and is already creating serious problems for Western Australia's massive gold mining industry and will curtail supply for months, rather than weeks.

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Economics

Sunday, June 08, 2008

Bernanke Cries "It's all China's Fault!" / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHe's at it again. Bernanke, that is. Thursday the Fed chief delivered a rambling 45 minute speech at the International Monetary Conference in Barcelona, Spain laying out all the reasons why the Federal Reserve is NOT responsible for the present crisis in the financial markets. Here's what he said:

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Economics

Friday, June 06, 2008

Inflation One Year Ahead - A Look at the Inflation and the Consumer Price Index / Economics / Inflation

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe recent rise in inflation has not yet been properly captured by the variety of inflation indexes used by the market to assess the pricing environment. The publication of the April Consumer Price Index elicited howls of derision from the market due to the very dubious -2.0% decline in the price of gasoline suggested by the report. At the time, our reaction was that it did not pass the “laugh test” and that once the seasonal adjustments made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are “adjusted” we are quite confident that the actual increase in headline prices will be accurately accounted for and the increase in core prices that most individuals have observed will also work their way into the data.

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Economics

Friday, June 06, 2008

May Jobs: US Unemployment Skyrockets to 5.5% Confirming Recession / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYahoo!Finance is reporting Unemployment rate jumps to 5.5 percent in May .

The nation's unemployment rate jumped to 5.5 percent in May — the biggest monthly rise since 1986 — as nervous employers cut 49,000 jobs. The latest snapshot of business conditions showed a deeply troubled economy, with dwindling job opportunities in a time of continuing hardship in the housing, credit and financial sectors.

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Economics

Friday, June 06, 2008

The Spin On Jobs Statistics- Non-Farm Payrolls Friday / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Given that it takes 150,000 jobs to keep up with birthrate, anything under 100,000 jobs is a weak showing. Numbers under 50,000 are actually pathetic. However, it's easy to put a positive spin on things when expectations are in the gutter.

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Economics

Friday, June 06, 2008

Ben Bernanke Soaking the Rich at Harvard / Economics / Money Supply

By: John_Browne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week I watched Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke charm the rain soaked graduating class of Harvard, my Alma Mater. As he spoke, I was reminded of an anecdote that President Franklin Roosevelt was alleged to have made during the commencement speech he gave at Harvard in 1936. Amidst a similar downpour, Roosevelt apparently said, “Well, Harvard sure knows how to soak the rich!” Fittingly, Bernanke graduated from Harvard in 1975, and his current policies are doing just that. 

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Economics

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

The Trillion Dollar Debt Countdown / Economics / US Debt

By: David_Vaughn

Has anyone forgotten the national debt? And I don't mean the yearly imbalance that merely makes up a fraction of the whole. We seem to discount this theme quite easily most of the time. Part of the reason for this is that we continue to add sand to a sand castle that is already too high and has begun to be buffeted by the waves. We have an election coming up that is probably the most important presidential election in years. In the past four decades there have been tremendous ideological shifts in political theory. Now long over due liberal trends and social changes are right on our horizon. In other words begin to look for even more government intervention in our lives.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

UK Economy GDP Growth Forecasts Continue to be Revised Lower for 2008 / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The OECD, Inline with many economic forecasting organisations have in recent months revised UK growth forecasts lower, today the OECD announced that UK growth for 2008 is expected to be 1.8% against 2% in Dec 07, and growth for 2009 to fall to 1.4%.

The organisation cited the weakening housing market and the tight credit conditions for the the lower growth forecast and urged the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold to help curb rising inflation.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

US Living Standards and Productivity / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Boring as this might seem to some of our rightwing pundits, we can get no where in economic debate without the application of theory. Many of the questions that are popping up these days are linked to the alleged connection between productivity, unemployment and inflation. There are no links here in the functional sense. In a free market unemployment will not rise even where productivity is falling.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Lies, Damn Lies, and Government Statistics / Economics / Recession

By: Dr_William_R_Swagell

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“Every single release of late has afforded both bulls and bears the chance to grab onto data to support their view of the economy, but it does not do a whole lot for those in search of clarity.”

To those words by Richard Moody (chief economist Mission Residential) may we all say “Amen”.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

US Economy in Deflationary Death Spiral / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLook around. The evidence of a withering economy is everywhere. In "good times" consumers shun the canned meat aisle altogether, but no more. Today, Spam sales are soaring; grocery stores can't keep it on the shelves. Everyone is looking for cheaper ways to feed their families. The Labor Dept. assures us that core-inflation is only 4 per cent, but everybody knows it's load of malarkey. Food prices are going through the roof. White bread is up 13 percent, bacon is up 7 percent and peanut butter is up 9 percent. Inflation is rampant and there's no end in sight. The dollar is closing in on the peso and working people are struggling just to get by. The bottom line is that more and more people in "the richest country on earth" are now surviving on processed pig-meat. That says it all.

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Economics

Monday, June 02, 2008

Are Subsistence Wages Killing The United States? / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI received an interesting Email last week from Minyan "MC" who is concerned about globalization's effect on jobs and wages. Let's tune in to his thoughts:
There is a mania in this country to slash wages to a subsistence level (or worse). This is a symptom of the greed and corporate cronyism that is killing the country.

The powers-that-be that run the US are determined to crush wages, even when they realize that people are doing without food, health insurance, etc. We keep hearing news stories that about 10% of our population doesn't have sufficient food? The root cause is the mania to cut wages and lay off workers.

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Economics

Monday, June 02, 2008

Betting on Biggs and other Economic Predictions / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_Petillo

Some folks would like to call these days an inflection point. But that would be a prediction. The markets are going up, down and sideways in an unpredictable way and yet we are still trying to divine some semblance of normal where normal may not exist.

Douglas Noël Adams, the late author of the classic Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy suggested that, "Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so." But in days like these, where experience seems to be as passé as our dominance on the global economy, who do you listen to?

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Economics

Monday, June 02, 2008

Why Consumer Spending Won't Save the US Economy from Depression / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRegardless of the spiteful attempts of the Democrats and a corrupt media, the US economy is not going to sink into a depression. (When in 2000 Cheney observed, correctly, that the economy was in recession he was accused by the same corrupt media and the Democrats of trying "to talk down the economy"). Some economic commentators have stressed that based on a year-over-year basis GDP rose by 2.5 per cent in the first quarter of this year, most of it due the country's export boom.

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Economics

Saturday, May 31, 2008

US Economy Stuck in the Purple Haze of Stagflation / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith the economy caught somewhere in the purple haze between recession and anemic growth, many market prognosticators have been making the case that the worst is behind us.

With respect to the credit crisis, I do think that with the exception of a few nerve-rattling write-offs still to come, that is true. Credit spreads have begun to narrow, volatility measures seem to have settled down in recent weeks and the very unorthodox liquidity measures taken by the Fed appear to have calmed the nerves of market actors and appears to be in the process of pushing the market back towards something approximating normalcy.

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