Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, November 03, 2008
Fed's Tough Balancing Act Between Inflation and Deflation / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Captain_Hook
Save me – I'm sure that's exactly the sentiment many hedge fund managers share today. Why would this be? Answer: Because as Doug Noland aptly puts it in his regular column this week, The Arb Game Is Over , meaning that on a macro-basis the larger speculation / credit cycles have turned lower; and, they will continue to fall for some time, taking many an unaware hedge fund manager with them. In fact, and to be more blunt about it, the cash strapped hedge fund industry has likely also topped with the larger credit cycle, where increasing redemptions necessitate margin contraction on an accelerating basis. In this regard it should be noted aggregate margin debt levels remain high, meaning no matter what policy measures are taken to stem the tide, authorities are just pushing on a string. Of course this is not a problem in my estimation, as you will read further below. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
United States About to be Hit by Hyper-Inflationary Hurricane! / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Prolonged inflation (and, especially hyperinflation) cannot continue without increases in the monetary base..."
"A COUNTRY'S LONG-RUN INFLATION is caused primarily, or perhaps exclusively, by increases in its own monetary base," wrote Richard G.Anderson – a vice-president and senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis – in a 2006 paper.
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Monday, November 03, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Nov 3-7) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The first week of November will see another heavy week of data releases on the calendar that will feature the first significant look at the data from the real economy in October, when the credit markets seized up. The primary market-moving event will be the Friday publication of the October estimate of non-farm payrolls that we expect to contract by -225K. The week will kick off with the release of the October ISM survey of manufacturing conditions nationwide, total vehicle sales and the construction spending report for September. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
United States Heading for Economic Depression and Dollar Collapse / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
The US headed for a depression AND a currency collapse. Americans will see their wealth wiped out as stocks and home values plunge, their cost of living soar as food and oil prices spike up, and their taxes increase as the government struggles to fund itself. To understand where the US is heading, we need to step back and take a look at the deep problems afflicting the US economy: Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Current Economic Crisis Worse than the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Dr_Krassimir_Petrov
The mainstream media and Wall Street have reached the consensus that the current credit crisis is the worst since the post-war period. George Soros' statement that ”the world faces the worst finance crisis since WWII” epitomizes the collective wisdom. The crisis is currently the ultimate scapegoat for all the economic evils that currently plague the global financial system and the global economy – from collapsing stock markets of the world to food shortages in third world counties. We are repeatedly assured that the ultimate fault lies with the Credit Crisis itself; if there were no Credit Crisis, all of these terrible things would never have happened in the economy and the financial markets. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Time to Bunker Down as the Global Debt Mountain Implodes / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Dr_William_R_Swagell
Global Panic Spreads - The largest debt bubble in the history of mankind is on the verge of deflating and collapsing as world leaders and central bankers fly around the globe to one crisis meeting after another. No sooner is one panic quelled or some hasty band-aid fix slapped into place to stop a financial collapse than another breaks out somewhere else. The bad news just keeps on coming; Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 01, 2008
The End of Economic Prosperity / Economics / Global Economy
By: Stephen_Lendman
From too much of a good thing. From the 1980s and 1990s excesses. From the longest ever US bull market. Heavily manipulated to keep it levitating. From August 1982 to January 2000. An illusory reprieve from October 2002 to October 2007. Fluctuations aside, all lost in the past 12 months. The wages of sin are now due, and payment is being painfully extracted. From all nations globally. Affecting ordinary people the most who had nothing to do with creating booms and busts. They got little on the upside but are paying dearly for the down. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Chinese Manufacturing Contracts as the Tail Fails to Wag the Dog / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
For the third month in four, China's manufacturing is in contraction. July and August were in contraction as discussed in China's Manufacturing Contracts for Second Month . Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 01, 2008
President Obama to Inherit Bush Recession and Record Deficits / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
- Electing the Janitor-in-Chief
- Can't Borrow on Your Home? Whip out the Credit Card
- Deficits as High as an Elephant's Eye
- Can You Count to 41?
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Economic Deflation in Gold Terms and the U.S. Dollar Collapse / Economics / Deflation
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
We have finally gotten to the point where most investors and the media understand the severity of the credit crisis and are expecting deflation. It is a good start, but unfortunately, it still isn't quite right. Deflation will be in terms of gold, like in 1929
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Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Credit Crisis Bailouts Continue; China Takes Aggressive Action on Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Tony Sagami writes: Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke will go down in history as two of the most incompetent Federal Reserve chairmen our country has ever had. Like Mr. Magoo, they blindly drove the stock market and then the real estate market into some of the biggest bubbles our world has ever seen. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
U.S. Mortgage Bonds Crash to New Low / Economics / Subprime Mortgage Risks
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting Non-Agency Mortgage Bonds Fall Amid Selling Concern . Subprime, Alt-A and prime-jumbo mortgage securities reached or approached record lows this month as forced asset sales contributed to the decline in values.
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Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Deteriorating Economic Outlook for Germany and Euro-zone / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
Last week's PMI surveys for the Euro-zone and for its various countries warned that the outlook for Q4 is deteriorating sharply. To date, the strongest of the major Euro-zone economies clearly has been Germany, which may actually escape a technical recession if consumer demand keeps Q3 real GDP growth in positive territory. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 27, 2008
Gordon Brown Spending His Way out of Economic Contraction into Stagflation / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Friday's announcement of surprisingly high 0.5% GDP contraction well above the forecasts of 0.2% and the Market Oracle forecast of 0.3%, confirmed that the UK economy is heading for a deep recession which looks set to beat the 1990's recession that saw a 2.5% contraction in GDP from peak to trough.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 27, 2008
Economists are Still Getting it Wrong on the Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Gerard_Jackson
The recession is deepening and our economic commentariat still cannot get it right. Access Economics economist Chris Richardson is a classic. He figures governments and central banks "just don't have the dollars" to turn things around. The one thing governments and central banks are never short of is money. They can create as much money as they like. Only the threat of an outbreak of massive inflation stops them. In any event, the problem is not one of insufficient funds.
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Monday, October 27, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Oct 27-31) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
After the heaviest week of Fed talk and macro data releases in recent memory, the calendar will see a very light week of rhetoric and economic releases. Monday, will see the publication of the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, Thursday the weekly jobless claims data and the week will conclude with the publication of the September existing home sales. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 27, 2008
Economic Data and Corporate Earnings Signaling Global Recession? / Economics / Corporate Earnings
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: It's beginning to sound like a broken record. In a nutshell, we already know that the economic data should be weak. We already know that the earnings reports should be disappointing. And because we already know all this, the information should be built into stock prices. The earnings releases should be soft. That much should already be known – and built into the markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 27, 2008
United States Heading for Nasty Economic Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Bill King (The King Report): Adjusted monetary base surging “The following chart of the Adjusted Monetary Base, as calculated by the St. Louis Fed, needs no commentary. But we must note that it is growing at a 341% annualized rate (of 4-week average). This is beyond 3rd world pumping! Yesterday in testimony before Congress about the financial crisis, Easy Al reluctantly gave a qualified confession about his role in the mess when he said he was ‘partially' wrong on derivative regulation. But Easy Al tried to direct blame at Wall Street.”
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Sunday, October 26, 2008
Contraction of the Whole Financial and Economic System / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Whitney
"The great inter-war slumps were not acts of God or of blind forces. They were the sure and certain result of the concentration of too much economic power in the hands of too few men (who) felt no responsibility to the nation." From the 1945 UK Labour manifesto Let Us Face The Future
There are signs that the credit crunch is easing. Interbank lending in dollars has fallen for a ninth straight day. The various indicators of stress in the market--Libor, the TED spread, and the Libor-OIS spread--are all gradually returning to normal, but the damage to the broader economy has been substantial.
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Friday, October 24, 2008
Financial Crisis Turning Into an Economic Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Christopher_Laird
With all of the chaos in financial markets, and also commodities, how are the USD and the Euro affected and also the precious metals?
Well, first of all, we need the proper context of this world market situation. We are in the middle of a super world crash. These take a year to get into full swing. They develop over time. Minding that, realize that we may not see the worst for another year for the world stock markets. We are in the midst of a crash.
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