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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Why Deflation is Better for the Economy than Inflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Oxbury_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBetween a Rock and a Hard Place - There was something about the article I wrote last week for Bourbon & Bayonets that touched a nerve with a lot of people. There wasn't a lot of middle-ground; readers loved it, hated it, or were annoyed with me for complaining without proposing a solution. I'm glad I was able to stir the pot and get something controversial enough on paper to bring out the passion on both sides of the arguments. This article isn't written to further my points and persuade those who disagreed with me. Instead I want to purpose what I see to be the best potential solution to a very difficult problem. I agree with the readers who took issue with my empty complaints. Today's article is written for those who see the problems, but wonder what choices or alternatives we have to current policy.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

U.S. Economic Weakness Unmatched in 35 Years / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the best gauges of an economy is tax collections. No one pays taxes unless they have to, so collections are a real-world, real-time analysis of the US economy. And the best source I know of for tracking taxes is The Liscio Report, by Philippa Dunne & Doug Henwood.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

UK Recession Watch- Britain's Great Depression? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe purpose of this analysis is to map out to the trend of the UK recession for 2009 and 2010 in terms of depth, the bottom and the potential recovery. The most recently released GDP data shows that the UK economy actually did fall off of the edge of a cliff during the fourth quarter of 2008 by contracting by a shocking 1.5% GDP. This compares against the governments recent forecast for 2% GDP contraction for the whole of 2009 which paints a picture of gross under estimation of the actual extent of the degree of economic contraction that is taking place at this time, and hence the adoption of the easy going terminology of "Quantative Easing" to hide the truth of money printing on a scale that could bankrupt Britain, the evidence of which has been played out in the currency markets with sterling's fall to a 23 year low against the dollar, a fall of over 30% in barely 6 months.

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Economics

Monday, February 16, 2009

Eastern European Economies About to Explode in a Chain Reaction of Debt Defaults / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEastern Europe is about to blow. If it does, it could take much of the EU with it. It's an emergency situation but there are no easy solutions. The IMF doesn't have the resources for a bailout of this size and the recession is spreading faster than relief efforts can be organized. Finance ministers and central bankers are running in circles trying to put out one fire after another. Its only a matter of time before they are overtaken by events. If one country is allowed to default, the dominoes could begin to tumble through the whole region. This could trigger dramatic changes in the political landscape. The rise of fascism is no longer out of the question.

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Economics

Monday, February 16, 2009

Bankrupt Britain: Europe Blames America While U.K Warned of Bankruptcy / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009

By: Chris_Tew

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNiall Ferguson, respected economic historian, warns of other European countries facing an Iceland style bankruptcy . 'Switzerland is first in line… and Britain is not far behind ,' he says.

While many politicians in Europe like to shift the blame for the credit crisis to the U.S. Niall points out that excessive lending and leveraging was much more endemic in countries such as Germany and the U.K.

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Economics

Monday, February 16, 2009

US, UK, Eurozone Banks Face Collapse: Global Banking System Insolvent / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith all the hype from various US dollar bears about the crisis with US banks, few on this side of the Atlantic are paying any attention to happenings in Europe.

For those who look, a strong case can be made that European banks are as bad off if not much worse off than their US counterparts.

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Economics

Monday, February 16, 2009

Obama Economic Stimulus: Truth and Consquences / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: Money_and_Markets

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Weiss writes: Never before have I learned so much so quickly from my readers as I have now — all just by reading the thousands of comments you have posted on my blog in the past week!

One of your key questions: Will the new Obama stimulus and banking bailouts succeed or fail?

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Economics

Monday, February 16, 2009

Meat, Milk and Motors: The New China Syndrome / Economics / China Economy

By: Robert_Singer

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAugust 21, theatres around the nation screened the documentary I.O.U.S.A. and a live discussion with America's most notable financial leaders and policy experts, including Warren Buffett; William Niskanen, chairman of the Cato Institute; Pete Peterson, senior chairman of The Blackstone Group and former U.S. Comptroller General, Dave Walker.

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Economics

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Japan's Economy Collapses into Economic Depression / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Japan today released truly shocking GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2008, the Japanese economy contracted by 3.3% which equates to an annualised rate of 13.2% which is on par with magnitude of contraction that is associated with an economic depression. All exporting countries are experiencing a crash in exports which fell by 14% in the quarter, as western consumers stop buying and start saving. Japans industrial plunged by nearly 10% in December 2008, down 20% on the year earlier.

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Economics

Sunday, February 15, 2009

What if the World Stops Spending for Good / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Kevin_Geary

All the politicians and policy makers around the world are trying to do what actually may be impossible.

They are trying to get banks to lend again and they are trying to get "Joe Public" (consumers) to spend again. Nothing they are doing is working so far, and nothing they are likely to do will get banks to ease credit again, nor people around the world to spend again like there's no tomorrow, or in other words, like they did before yesterday.

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Economics

Sunday, February 15, 2009

China’s Stimulus Ignites Economy / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: China's giant $585 billion (4 trillion yuan) economic stimulus package is showing signs of taking effect. Economists now project that China will be the likely leader of an elusive worldwide economic recovery.

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Economics

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Global Recession, United States Economy in Least Worst Shape / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJack Crooks Writes: Americans are beginning to realize the gravity of the current U.S. economic situation. After the new Treasury Secretary spoke earlier this week he left us with a very uncomfortable feeling: This problem is huge, and no one seems to have a real answer.

Still, the government feels it must produce an answer and prove that it is the ONLY entity that can fix this mess — via hundreds of billions (perhaps trillions) of U.S. dollars.

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Economics

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Anatomy of the Global Economic Downturn / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: William_R_Thomson

Business Times Singapore 13 February 2009 - Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFAR from being at, or even near, the trough of the economic and financial system crisis, are we still staring into the abyss? And if things have to get worse before they get better, how much worse, and for how long? Is a 'relief rally' likely in equity markets before long? The Business Times invited a group of experts (who correctly predicted that the crisis would be far worse than most people expected) to tell us where things are likely to go from here - and what kind of investment portfolio to build against an uncertain future.

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Economics

Sunday, February 15, 2009

UK Official Unemployment Now Above 2.1 million Real 7.9million / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK unemployment shot up by 48,000 for November 08 data to 1.97 million, and remains on target to bust above 2 million on release of data for December 2008. The unemployment claimant count soared by 11% for January to 1.28 million, up a shocking 129,000 on the month and confirming that the pace of unemployment is accelerating as the economy fell over the cliff during the fourth quarter.

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Economics

Saturday, February 14, 2009

Asian Economies In Free Fall as Exports Crash / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInquiring minds are looking into details of Asia's Export Economies . Staggering falls in exports across Asia have shocked economic analysts and ended all claims that the global slump may be nearing its bottom. The IMF's growth forecast for Asia this year is just 2.7 percent—less than a third of the 9 percent growth rate of 2007. The prediction is a full percentage point less than during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.

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Economics

Saturday, February 14, 2009

World Trade Collapsing, Over-leveraged Bankrupt European Banks / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

  • Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTime for a Reality Check
  • World Trade Is Falling Off a Cliff
  • European Bank Losses Dwarf Those in the US
  • Geithner: "You Can't Handle the Truth"
  • Earnings Will Get Even Worse

It is not just the US that is in recession. The world is slowing down, and rapidly. This week we quickly survey the rest of the world, and then come back to the US. We follow up with the implications for corporate earnings worldwide, and specifically address my speculations about earnings forecasts for 2009.

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Economics

Saturday, February 14, 2009

The Road To Economic Recovery Has Potholes / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Oxbury_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLet's take care of some old business first.

When I suggested a closer look at long positions in GE and BAC last week, I did not expect each of them to spike violently in two days. That was part luck.

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Economics

Friday, February 13, 2009

Economic Collapse Worse than the Great Depression: Video / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article' Worst Economic Collapse Ever' - In 2009 were going to see the worst economic collapse ever, the Greatest Depression, says Gerald Celente, U.S. trend forecaster. He believes its going to be very violent in the U.S., including there being a tax revolt.

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Economics

Thursday, February 12, 2009

UK Retail Sales Bounce Out of Deflation on Deep Discounting / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHeadline retail sales bounced strongly in December rising by 2% to an annualised 3.7% as distressed retailers slashed margins on stock to avert bankruptcy amidst price cutting in the wake of heavily discounted stock in the closing down sales of major retailers such as Woolworth's , Zavvi and Adams, that collectively account for some 50,000 jobs.

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Economics

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Economic Growth and Debt: Is there a Trade Off? / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: Professor_Emeritus

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Big Fix - The Obama administration apparently believes in a trade-off between growth and debt. It wants to stimulate fast growth and is willing to pay for it in the form of unprecedented increases in government debt, because it fully expects the growth to rake in tax revenues with which the debt can be retired. It invokes the experience with debt retirement after World War II. When the war ended, government debt stood at 120 percent of the gross national product, twice what it is now. The rapid economic growth during the 1950's and 1960's quickly reduced the debt. This is offered as a justification for the $800 billion stimulus package that is being railroaded through Congress, with more to follow later.

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