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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Inflation is No Cure for a Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Michael_Pento

There are some in our government who claim that we face a possible depression if we do not engage in a massive amount of deficit spending and money printing to resurrect the economy. The prescription is intended to cure the credit crisis by forcing banks to step up their lending practices. In their inability to accept or understand the cause of our current crisis in the first place, however, we face increasing odds of a depression as our fearless leaders fight this recession with yet more of the disease itself: inflation .

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Economics

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Black Friday Approaches for Retailers as Holiday Shopping Season Begins / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

William Patalon III writes: As Thanksgiving approaches, the American people should be thankful for the declining gasoline prices that help enable many of them to afford holiday travel this year.  Speaking of the holiday, after the traditional bird has been devoured, one additional time honored tradition remains – shopping. The Friday after Thanksgiving, known as “Black Friday,” represents the official start of the holiday shopping season. Historically, it is the day that retailers moved out of the “red” (losses) and into the “black” (profits).

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Economics

Monday, November 24, 2008

UK Government Debt to Double, Tax Rises to Follow Tax Cuts / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAlistair Darling's emergency tax cutting budget revealed the true extent of anticipated government borrowing that looks set to take official public sector next debt smashing through £1 trillion, this despite the fact that the official data ignores the £500 billion bailout of the banks. The government also announced fantasy growth forecasts that stated that UK GDP growth would return to trend growth of 2.5% per annum by 2011, this leaves more probable forecast growth rates of 0.6% for 2010 far behind and opens up a potential black hole in Britain's finances that implies that actual official government borrowing will be some 50% higher than today's electioneering budget's forecasts.

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Economics

Monday, November 24, 2008

UK Emergency Tax Cuts to Get Consumers Spending / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLater today, Alistair Darling the Chancellor of the Exchequer is expected to announce a series of emergency tax cuts aimed specifically at consumers to get them spending again as the retail sales market falls off the edge of the cliff following hard on the heels of the crash in the banking system that required an emergency £500 billion bailout to prevent a catastrophic collapse of the financial system. This was followed by an emergency 1.5% interest rate cut at the November Bank of England MPC meeting and therefore sets the continuing scene of emergency near panic actions aimed at two primary goals.

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Economics

Friday, November 21, 2008

The Truth About Bailouts / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs the Federal bailout bonanza prepares to spread beyond the mortgage and financial sectors to fill Detroit's depleted coffers, few economic or policy analysts have spared a thought for the destitution of the U.S. government itself. Put simply, our government doesn't have enough spare cash to bailout a lemonade stand let alone a bloated and failing industry that is losing tens of billions of dollars per month. Washington can only offer funds that it has borrowed from abroad or printed. Unfortunately, the nation is in the grips of a delusion that money derived from these sources has the power to heal. But history has clearly shown that borrowed or printed money only has the power to destroy.

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Economics

Friday, November 21, 2008

The Global Financial System is Coming to an End / Economics / Financial Crash

By: Dr_Janice_Dorn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI don't have to tell you how awful things are. People all over the world are frightened. Many are panicking. Most are confused and don't know where to turn for guidance or help with their money and their future. Since January 1, 2008, stockholders of U.S. corporations have suffered about $8 trillion in losses, as their holdings declined in value from $20 trillion to $12 trillion. Homeowners will soon see their equity down by as much as $8 trillion, and those losses are likely to increase.

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Economics

Friday, November 21, 2008

Manipulated Inflation Statistics An Undisclosed Act of Treason / Economics / Market Manipulation

By: Rob_Kirby

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor those of you who are unfamiliar with the work of John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics fame; this missive should prove to be quite an eye opener. For those who are familiar with Williams' work – this is nothing more than logical extension[s] and conclusions.

Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, ***** laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth 's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.

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Economics

Friday, November 21, 2008

Financial System Crisis, Stay Focused on the Big Picture / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Chris_Galakoutis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn these trying times it is critical that we remain focused on the big picture and stay true to our convictions; one can always revisit their reasoning and conclusions, like I do, but I would hope that at this stage many of you have done so as well, so that our minds are not treated like a flimsy ship in rough seas.

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Economics

Friday, November 21, 2008

World Economic Demand is Collapsing / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Christopher_Laird

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWorld economic demand is now collapsing along with the yearlong credit collapse. Recent news is full of stories about how world economic demand fell off a cliff in October, 08. Every sector is being hit, from new cars to recycled cardboard. In each case, October is pointed to where economic demand fell off a cliff…

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Economics

Friday, November 21, 2008

Global Economy is Being Sucked into a Black Hole / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Whitney

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"The Winter of 2008-2009 will prove to be the winter of global economic discontent that marks the rejection of the flawed ideology that unregulated global financial markets promote financial innovation, market efficiency, unhampered growth and endless prosperity while mitigating risk by spreading it system wide." Economists Paul Davidson and Henry C.K. Liu "Open Letter to World Leaders attending the November 15 White House Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy"

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Economics

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Keynesian Economics- Revenge of the Barbarous Relic / Economics / Deflation

By: Kurt_Kasun

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMarc Faber's latest report written on November 1 was titled “Why Market Interventions by Governments worsen Economic and Financial Conditions!” I might have called it "Vengeance of the Barbarous Relic". John Maynard Keynes granted gold with this pejorative, giving license to governments to intervene, print, and distort to their heart's content. In the long run we are all dead...right? Wrong! The long run is now and the chickens are coming home to roost.

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Economics

Thursday, November 20, 2008

UK Real Retail Sales Deflationary Trend Continues / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe official monthly retail sales data again demonstrated the inbuilt trend inaccuracy by reporting just a 0.1% drop for October 2008, up 2% on the year and in the face of the UK economy slumping fast into recession. Whilst the mainstream media mistakenly jumps on the smaller than expected decline, I refer readers to the two graphs below, one of the official retail sales data and the second of the inflation indexed and trend adjusted retail sales which more accurately reflects the current true state of distressed retailers than the month to month gyrations of official data that proves so confusing to mainstream market watchers.

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Economics

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Hyperinflation to Follow Deflationary Debt Unwind / Economics / Stagflation

By: Eric_deCarbonnel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the investor community, there currently exists the belief that hyperinflation is impossible because of the deflationary debt unwind now underway. However, this logic is based on the flawed assumption that the money supply is the only important factor when determining inflation or deflation. This ignores the fact that for nations heavily dependent on foreign imports, like the US and Iceland, the purchasing power of the currency is the most important determinant of inflation/deflation.

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Economics

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Falling Consumer Prices Good or Bad News for Consumers? / Economics / Inflation

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThursday the BLS reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 1.0% both seasonally adjusted as well as unadjusted. On an unadjusted basis, this was the largest monthly decline in the CPI since January 1938 (see Chart 1). Some journalists and some economists are exclaiming that these falling consumer prices are "good" for consumers. Are they?

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Economics

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Explanation of the Price Effects of Inflation and Deflation / Economics / Inflation

By: EWI

The U.S. Labor Department reported a 1 percent drop in the consumer price index for October 2008. The drop marked the largest decline in 61 years, and it was the first decline in that measure in nearly a quarter of a century. The 1 percent drop was twice as large as many mainstream analysts had forecast. Such a large decline in consumer prices is forcing U.S. policymakers to rethink the possibility of deflation in America. For more on deflation, we turn to Robert Prechter, the man who literally wrote a book on how to survive it.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

China's Stimulus Package Suggests Good Long-term Economic Prospects / Economics / China Economy

By: John_Browne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs Peter Schiff and I have long warned, America's reliance on borrowing and consumption to fuel economic activity would result in the wholesale destruction of national wealth. Until recently, the dissipation was largely invisible to most consumers. However, the ongoing plunge in real estate and equity prices and newly released statistics concerning retail sales, consumer confidence and employment have now made it plain to most Americans that their own wealth has been seriously, and perhaps permanently, degraded. In response, they are now hoarding cash and reevaluating their spending habits.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Largest Decline Since 1947 / Economics / Inflation

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

The October estimate of consumer price index declined -1.0% (-0.961%) m/m and was up 3.7% y/y. The core ex-food and energy estimate fell -0.1%(-0.071%) m/m and is up 2.2%. The ex-food estimate saw a sharp drop of -1.2% m/m and the ex-energy component was flat for the month. Energy prices dropped -8.6% and prices in the services sector were also flat for the month.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

The Road to Financial Ruin: Unrestrained Government Spending / Economics / US Debt

By: Axel_Merk

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen just about all economists agree, should we rejoice or be scared? During the Weimar Republic, economists at the Reichsbank argued that printing money to finance a war was “exogenous” to the economy and thus not inflationary. Hyperinflation in the ensuing years proved them wrong. We tend to think we are so much smarter today. Economists know how to run regression models; in the absence of a historic precedent, some economists know how to draw shifting supply and demand curves. But common sense seems to be missing in the toolbox of all but a few.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Reasons for Economic Optimism Despite G20 Summit Failure / Economics / Global Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: The gathering of 20 largest industrial countries in Washington this past weekend – billed as a crucial G20 summit – turned out to be a rather dull scrum.

There were promises of a coordinated approach to bank regulation, additional economic stimulus packages, and increased allocations for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) –one of the five “ aftershock-investing ” opportunities Money Morning has counseled readers to watch for. But none of the G20 meeting proposals seemed even remotely likely to make a difference in the here and now.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Spreading Global Recession Signals Caution for Investors / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTony Sagami writes: In 1944, our country had recently emerged from the Great Depression and was in the middle of World War II when 730 delegates from 44 Allied nations met in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire.

Those global leaders had come together to develop a monetary system to govern the financial relationships between the world's largest economies.

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