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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Why China's Economy is Deteriorating / Economics / China Economy

By: Steve_H_Hanke

               The plunging Shanghai Stock Exchange and the sudden reversal in the yuan’s appreciation have caused fears to spread beyond China’s borders. Is something wrong with the world’s growth locomotive? In a word, yes.

               The most reliable approach for the determination of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and the balance of payments is the monetary approach. Indeed, the path of an economy’s nominal GDP is determined by the course of its money supply (broadly determined).

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Economics

Monday, August 24, 2015

Japan Economy Clear Conclusions Concerning QE / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Japan was recently slammed with more bad economic news; growth contracted yet again in the second quarter. Gross Domestic Product for the world’s third largest economy fell by an annualized 1.6% in the three months ended in June.

The economic plan known as Abenomics, which promised massive money printing coupled with government spending would put the world's third largest economy on a path to sustainable growth, seems to have hit another roadblock. This latest contraction marks the third such set back since the optimistic launch of Abenomics at the end of 2012. Japan appears to be headed towards a triple dip recession.

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Economics

Sunday, August 23, 2015

Economics is Dead, and Economists Killed It / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Per L. Bylund writes: What we have seen over the course of the last eighty years is a systematic dismantling of the contribution of economics to our understanding of the social world. Whatever the cause, modern economics is now not much more than formal modeling using mathematics dressed up in economics-sounding lingo. In this sense, economics is dead as a science, assuming it was ever alive. Economics in mathematical form cannot fulfill its promises and neither the scientific literature nor advanced education in the subject provide insights that are applicable to or useful in everyday life, business, or policy.

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Economics

Friday, August 21, 2015

Why China Economy Is in Trouble - It's the Slumping Money Supply / Economics / China Economy

By: Steve_H_Hanke

The course of an economy is determined by the course of that economy's money supply (broadly determined). The relationship between money growth and nominal GDP growth is presented in the accompanying chart. It is persuasive. Indeed, money, not fiscal policy, dominates.

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Economics

Friday, August 21, 2015

US BreakEven Inflation at 5-Year Lows / Economics / Inflation

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Neither higher than expected Philly Fed survey at 8.3 in August nor a dovish set of FOMC minutes has managed to ease the onslaught of selling in global equities. The old trick that a dovish Fed and poor data are good for stocks is no longer valid. An uncertain Fed drove down chances of a Sept Fed hike to 36% from close to 50% earlier in the week. Meanhwile, stock indices deepen their selloffs well after a series of DeathCrosses emerged in the S&P500, Dow-30, Dax-30, FTSE-100 and Shanghai Composite. which may suggest that they require the Fed to firmly shut the door on any 2015 rate cut.

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Economics

Thursday, August 20, 2015

The Global Economy’s Health Is Not That Complicated / Economics / Global Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The Federal Reserve Bank has printed trillions of dollars to monetize US government debt just to keep the government afloat.  Any significant rise in interest rates will probably decimate US government finances, the fragile housing market and in the bond market it will cause a financial catastrophe through interest rate derivatives.

This is a solid reason why the Fed will not raise any rates in any foreseeable future.

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Economics

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Inflation - Don’t Be Fooled By Our Current Price Stability / Economics / Inflation

By: Frank_Shostak

The yearly rate of growth of the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index adjusted for food and energy stood at 1.3 percent in June — the same figure as in May. Note that on average since the beginning of this year the yearly rate of growth stood at 1.3 percent. Many economists have expressed satisfaction that the yearly rate of growth has been stable so far notwithstanding that it stood below the Fed’s target of 2 percent.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Credit Indicates a Recession Is Here… And Possibly Even a Credit Crunch / Economics / Credit Crisis 2015

By: Graham_Summers

sThose looking for accurate data regarding the US economy should look into credit card applications and credit card company earnings.

Regarding the former, consider the recent rejections of credit applications data:

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Economics

Monday, August 17, 2015

The Psychological Driver of Deflation and the Collapse of the Trust Horizon / Economics / Deflation

By: Nicole_Foss

The collective mood shifts rapidly from optimism and greed to pessimism and fear as the bubble bursts, and as it does so, the financial system moves from expansion to contraction. Financial contraction involves the breaking of promises right left and centre, with credit instruments drastically revalued downwards in the process. As the promises that back them cease to be credible, value disappears extremely rapidly. This is deflation and the elimination of excess claims to underlying real wealth. 

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Economics

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Asset-Price Inflation Enters Its Dangerous Late Phase / Economics / Inflation

By: MISES

Brendan Brown writes: Asset price inflation, a disease whose source always lies in monetary disorder, is not a new affliction. It was virtually inevitable that the present wild experimentation by the Federal Reserve — joined by the Bank of Japan and ECB — would produce a severe outbreak. And indications from the markets are that the disease is in a late phase, though still short of the final deadly stage characterized by pervasive falls in asset markets, sometimes financial panic, and the onset of recession.

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Economics

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Four Economic Myths that Perpetuate the Euro Crisis / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: MISES

Patrick Barron writes: Too much of the commentary about the Greek crisis has focused on whether or not Greece should drop the euro and not enough on the structural problems arising out of decades of socialism. Meanwhile, the Greek government has borrowed more money than the Greek people can possibly repay, and debased money will not make this fact disappear. On the contrary, more easy money will cause even more harm.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

China is Lying About Its Economy / Economics / China Economy

By: Harry_Dent

I and a few brave experts such as Jim Chanos, Gordon Chang, and David Stockman (speaking at our upcoming IES conference) have been arguing for years that China has the greatest investment and overbuilding bubble in all of modern history.

We’ve also warned that its economic statistics are not real – they are purposefully overstated and then revised later, if at all.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Closing the Sausage Factory - The New Normal / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

“Bureaucracy destroys initiative. There is little that bureaucrats hate more than innovation, especially innovation that produces better results than the old routines. Improvements always make those at the top of the heap look inept. Who enjoys appearing inept?”

– Frank Herbert, Heretics of Dune

“Economies naturally grow. People innovate as they go through life. They also look around at what others are doing and adopt better practices or tools. They invest, accumulating financial, human and physical capital.

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Economics

Saturday, August 08, 2015

U.S. Official Unemployment 5.3%, Real 10.4% / Economics / Unemployment

By: Mike_Shedlock

Initial Reaction

Today's job report (for July) once again showed a divergence between the household survey and the establishment survey.

The divergence was not as large as last month, but was in the same usual direction: The establishment survey was stronger than the household survey.

Household survey employment rose by 101,000 while the establishment survey shows an increase of 215,000 jobs.

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Economics

Thursday, August 06, 2015

Deflation, Debt and Gravity / Economics / Deflation

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Far too many people have already used lines like “We Are All Greeks Now” for the words to hold on to much if any meaning by now. But it’s still a very accurate description of what awaits us all. Just not for the same reasons most who used it, did.

No, I don’t really want to talk about Greece again. I want to talk about where you live. And about how similar the two will be not too long from now. How Greece is holding up a lesson and a big red flashing warning sign for all of us.

Greece is the mold upon which all of our futures will be based. Quite literally. Greece is a test tube baby rat.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 05, 2015

Services ISM Soar, ADP Disappoints / Economics / US Economy

By: Ashraf_Laidi

USD recovered from a disappointing ADP reading to rally across the board when the headline July services ISM hit a 10-year high of 60.3 from June's 56.0. The employment component soared to a 10-year high of 59.6, posting the biggest monthly increase in the history of ISM/NAPM report.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 05, 2015

Is Japan’s Inflation Failing? / Economics / Inflation

By: Gary_Tanashian

We begin with NFTRH.com’s post from July 16 noting the message I got from a former associate (from my previous life as a manufacturer)…

“Just an update for you, some disturbing news has leaked out this week.  Machine tool builders have put out blow out [lists] to all sales persons in the USA, not sure if world wide.  Mori Seiki list has 600 to 700 machines on it WOW!!! never have i heard of such a huge list by any one Builder.  Not sure what they see coming but it can’t be good.”

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Economics

Wednesday, August 05, 2015

In Greece, Reliance on Public Funds Is the Central Problem / Economics / Government Spending

By: MISES

Justin Murray writes: Greece is a hot topic at the moment, mostly with the continued negotiations over bailouts from the European Union and, through institutions like the IMF, the world at large. Much of the discussion paints the image that Greece is only a debt-restructuring away from a stable economic situation. However, without understanding how Greece got into this problem in the first place and identifying the root cause of an over-indebted society, any plan or solution has a high probability of failure. To crack into this root cause, I had to develop an entirely new metric called “implied public reliance.”

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Economics

Monday, August 03, 2015

When China Stopped Acting Chinese / Economics / China Economy

By: John_Mauldin

“The one thing I know for sure about China is, I will never know China. It's too big, too old, too diverse, too deep. There's simply not enough time.”– Anthony Bourdain, Parts Unknown

Much of the world is focused on what is happening in Greece and Europe. A lot of people are paying attention to the Middle East and geopolitics. These are significant concerns, for sure; but what has been happening in China the past few months has more far-reaching global investment implications than Europe or the Middle East do. Most people are aware of the amazing run-up in the Shanghai stock index and the recent “crash.” The government intervened and for a time has halted the rapid drop in the markets.

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Economics

Friday, July 31, 2015

Jackson Hole All About Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Another FOMC statement and another swing at the law of probability. Some banks are considering the probability of a September Fed hike to be as high as 70%. Others prefer to hedge themselves with more appropriate qualitative means of referring to September as a "high probability outcome as long as....", citing the two upcoming jobs report and their average hourly earnings components. But even if the next two jobs reports are accompanied by robust hourly earnings, the inflation objective remains in doubt. We've long mentioned in previous pieces how the 20% decline in oil since early May will further retard any recovery in price growth, which has prompted the Fed to drop its phrase in the FOMC statement that "energy prices have stabilized" discussed here.

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