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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, June 27, 2014

U.S. GDP: Is the Economic Sky Falling? / Economics / US Economy

By: Investment_U

Tom Sandford writes: The U.S. economy just came out on top of one of the biggest financial upsets in decades, but you might not know it from the latest report on America’s gross domestic product (GDP).

According to the U.S. Commerce Department, GDP nosedived by 2.9% during the first quarter of 2014. It also set the record for the worst first-quarter performance in five years. Naturally, the news has some investors shaking in their boots.

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Economics

Friday, June 27, 2014

There Are No – Financial – Black Swans / Economics / US Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Oh Japan, what are you doing, where are you going? As Japanese consumer prices rose 3.4% in May (and I do wish people would stop calling this inflation, it is not and never will be), consumer spending was down -8.9% (!). That is from a year earlier, so it has nothing to do with the April 1 tax hike! It’s an insane number when you think about it, and it’s the direct result of Abenomics tightening the thumb screws. With the population having seen their savings collapse, their wages move way down, and now rising prices for food and other basics. While the government and central bank are spending with unparalleled abandon, and pension funds are moving into riskier assets, away from government bonds, which have that same central bank as their only buyer left. Is it also going to purchase all the bonds the pensions funds will bring into the market? Frankly, how can it not?

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Economics

Friday, June 27, 2014

No Inflation ...Thanks to ObamaCare / Economics / Inflation

By: EconMatters

Healthcare Data Skewed

On Thursday the Personal Income and Outlays Report came out also known as the spending report and just like yesterday`s GDP downward revision the Healthcare component is playing havoc with the overall numbers, and it is pretty obvious due to the newly enacted Affordable Care Act also known as Obamacare.

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Economics

Thursday, June 26, 2014

I Give You: The GDP of Sillyland / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I had seen the reports on Italy and Britain preparing to add heroin and hookers to their GDP, but I had put that down to some kind of desperate quirkiness. Now, though, I heard today that this is actually due to an EU directive, and the number crunchers at Eurostat demand countries obey this newfound accounting magic trick.

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Economics

Thursday, June 26, 2014

The Fed Misrepresenting Inflation to Justify Inept Policy / Economics / Inflation

By: EconMatters

Government Data is useless

The final GDP calculation came out on Wednesday, and we have several takeaways from this latest revision. First of all government reporting data is all over the place, and not in a good way. I have no confidence that any of these numbers are actually right, and second with an ever changing economy, most of these data gathering tools are obsolete at best. The GDP number has now become a complete farce, the components used to calculate growth are so useless that we literally could have a plus 7% GDP quarter, and it mean absolutely nothing regarding the real health of the US economy!

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Economics

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Economic Gross Output: J.M. Keynes versus J.-B. Say / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Steve_H_Hanke

In late April of this year, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) at the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it would start reporting a new data series as part of the U.S. national income accounts. In addition to gross domestic product (GDP), the BEA will start reporting gross output (GO). This announcement went virtually unnoticed and unreported — an unfortunate, but not uncommon, oversight on the part of the financial press. Yes, GO represents a significant breakthrough.

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Economics

Monday, June 23, 2014

U.S. Fed’s “Noisy” Inflation Fantasy / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

The Fed wants investors to be as unconcerned as the central bank is about inflation. Even though year over year consumer price inflation is above its target, the Fed chose in its latest press conference to claim the 2.1 percent YOY increase in prices paid merely represented “noisy” readings in the inflation gauge. However, the truth is that rising prices are a direct result of years’ worth of zero percent interest rates and $3.5 trillion in money printing provided courtesy of both Banana Ben Bernanke and the Counterfeiting Queen, Janet Yellen.

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Economics

Friday, June 20, 2014

Euro-zone Blaming Deflation / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Alasdair_Macleod

With the Eurozone going to the extreme of negative interest rates and the IMF belatedly revising downwards their expectations of US economic growth, deflation is now the favoured buzzword. It is time to untangle myth from reality and put deflation in context.

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Economics

Friday, June 20, 2014

Global Drag Threatens Worst U.S. Export Performance in Over 60 Years / Economics / US Economy

By: F_F_Wiley

Ever since an über-strong U.S. dollar crushed the export sector in the mid-1980s, the U.S. economy hasn’t looked quite the same.

Exports picked up towards the end of the decade, helped along by the G-7’s historic 1985 powwow at New York’s Plaza Hotel, which led to a coordinated effort to slam back the dollar. Nonetheless, some export industries never fully recovered.

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Economics

Friday, June 20, 2014

U.S. Economy Is Still in the High-Danger Zone / Economics / US Economy

By: Don_Miller

I hate being the bearer of bad news.

I remember the one and only time in my life I agreed to umpire a Little League game behind the plate. My youngest son was on the mound, and his older brother came to bat. The count went to 3-2, and I realized I had a huge knot in my stomach.

I said to myself, “God, please let him swing and hit the ball!” And he did. I don’t even recall where it went; I was just thankful I didn’t have to make a call that would have meant bad news for one of them.

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Economics

Thursday, June 19, 2014

The Fed Just Lost Any Shred of Credibility on Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: EconMatters

Those High Chicken Prices are just Noise – Tell that to the Cashier

The Fed today in their press conference lost any credibility on a number of issues, and it really goes to show that they have no clue what they are doing at this point. First they called the overheating inflation in the economy Noise, yes you heard right NOISE which is now showing up even in the watered down indexes used to track it by the Fed, and already above their target of 2% on a year over year basis and rising, (wait until you see the next two month`s CPI reports on a spike in gasoline prices as we enter the summer driving season).

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Economics

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Even the Feds Admit Minimum Wages Cause Unemployment / Economics / Wages

By: MISES

Nicholas Freiling writes: Minimum wage doesn’t apply to everyone.

When Congress first established minimum wage in the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938, it left a loophole for businesses that employ people with disabilities.

The Secretary, to the extent necessary to prevent curtailment of opportunities for employment, shall by regulation or order provide for the employment, under special certificates, of individuals ... whose earning or productive capacity is impaired by age, physical or mental deficiency, or injury, at wages which are lower than the minimum wage.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

A Crash Is the Economic System Fixing Itself / Economics / Financial Crash

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Just a bunch of numbers Reuters published today. Read and weep. While remembering that this spring, after that horrible winter that threw the recovery so terribly off course, would see pent-up demand go crazy. That after the Q1 GDP growth, which has by now been revised to -2% after initially having been predicted to be in the 3%+ range, Q2 would certainly, according to pundits, economists and government agencies, top 3%, if not more. We already know for a fact that’s not going to happen. Unless the US grows faster in June than China did in its heyday.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

U.S. Unemployment - They’re Lying To Us / Economics / Unemployment

By: John_Rubino

One of the frustrating things about the monthly US jobs report is the way everyone focuses on the wrong number. The headline says “unemployment falls…” which sounds great, while the small print, which almost no one seems to read, explains that most of the improvement is due to people dropping out of the labor force. The number of new jobs created is frequently small or negative.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

IMF Christine Lagarde Lagarde - U.S. Economy Not in a Downward Spiral / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Christine Lagarde, International Monetary Fund Managing Director, spoke with Bloomberg Television's Tom Keene today about the IMF’s forecast cut for U.S. GDP growth in 2014, how she views the U.S. economy on a global scale and French politics. She also explains why the IMF recommends an increase in the U.S. minimum wage to kick start growth.

Lagarde said, "We have revised downward the 2014 numbers, but we do not think that it will be a downward spiral. We believe that 2015 will be up 3 percent." 

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Economics

Monday, June 16, 2014

The Data Is Clear: Free Markets Reduce Poverty / Economics / Wages

By: MISES

D.W. MacKenzie writes: Some Catholic clergy have, once again, denounced supporters of laissez-faire capitalism. Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga claims that the free market economy is “a new idol” which creates inequality, excludes the poor, and that “this economy kills.” Cardinal Maradiaga does not speak alone. He quoted Pope Francis in his recent remarks and claimed that since the Pope “grew up in Argentina,” he“has a profound knowledge of the life of the poor.”

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Economics

Sunday, June 15, 2014

The Busted Myth Of War And Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Raul_I_Meijer

A strange point of view is expressed in George Mason University economics professor Tyler Cowen’s NY Times article ‘The Lack of Major Wars May Be Hurting Economic Growth’, strange in more ways than just the obvious ones. Of course we find it counterintuitive to link growth to warfare. And of course we don’t like to make a link like that. But there’s a lot more here than meets the eye. For one thing, the age-old truth that correlation does not imply causality, something Cowen hardly seems to consider at all. Which is curious, and certainly makes his arguments carry a whole lot less weight, and interest. It makes his whole article just about entirely one-dimensional.

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Economics

Friday, June 13, 2014

Debt is No Salvation / Economics / US Debt

By: Peter_Schiff

Thus far 2014 has been a fertile year for really stupid economic ideas. But of all the half-baked doozies that have come down the pike (the perils of "lowflation," Thomas Piketty's claims about capitalism creating poverty, and President Obama's "pay as you earn" solution to student debt), an idea hatched last week by CNBC's reliably ridiculous Steve Liesman may in fact take the cake. In diagnosing the causes of the continued malaise in the U.S. economy he explained, "the problem is that consumers are not taking on enough debt." And that "historically the U.S. economy has been built on consumer credit." His conclusion: Consumers must be encouraged to borrow more money and spend it. Given that Liesman is CNBC's senior economic reporter, I would hate to see the ideas the junior people come up with.

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Economics

Friday, June 13, 2014

The Great Myth of Money Velocity / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The missing variable in the great monetary equation is money velocity. We hear it over and over again, "There is no money velocity." And therefore, inflation cannot be a problem and is not. 

Yet, there is a great divergence between the conventional financial media and the public who goes to the supermarket. The financial media swallows whole the official artifice that inflation is near-zero while ‘J.Q. Public’ sees his/her grocery costs, health insurance, etc. rising by leaps and bounds.

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Economics

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Unemployment and A Tale of Two Financial Crises / Economics / Unemployment

By: MISES

D.W. MacKenzie writes: The latest GDP report indicates a slowdown in overall economic activity in the first quarter of 2014. Apologists for the Obama administration attribute the recent slowdown to unusual winter weather. Some have even suggested that the first-quarter slowdown sets the stage for rapid economic growth for the remainder of this year: there is pent up demand and untapped potential productivity, they claim. Mobilization of unemployed resources and satisfaction of unmet demands could, in the remainder of 2014, translate into a faster annual rate of GDP growth, perhaps 3.5 percent. The flaws of this argument should be obvious. One can just as easily argue that the much larger slowdown of 2008 set the stage for fast growth in the 2009-2013 time frame. The 2008 crisis left us with much greater pent up demand and untapped productivity. Yet the recovery that began in 2009 nearly stalled in 2010 and has been extraordinarily slow. Why has the recovery been so very slow?

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