Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, May 08, 2016
Demographics and the Protein Ladder / Economics / Demographics
By: Richard_Mills
In 1800, three percent of the world's population lived in urban areas. By 1900, roughly 14 percent of the world's population were urbanites and 12 cities had 1 million or more inhabitants.
In 1950, 30 percent - 746 million people - resided in urban centers and the number of cities with over 1 million people had grown to 83.
In 1975 three cities had populations of 10 million or more. In 1990, there were ten “mega-cities” with 10 million inhabitants or more, which were home to 153 million people or slightly less than seven per cent of the global urban population at that time. Megacities (minimum population of 10 mil to qualify) numbered 16 in 2000.
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Tuesday, May 03, 2016
Just Look to the Middle-Class for Proof of Trickle-Down Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Harry_Dent
Politicians and economists get many things wrong, but right now, the one thing that really gets up my… let’s keep this clean and just say, nose… is how clueless they are about “trickle-down economics.”
Republicans believe it. (They just don’t realize how long it takes and that it isn’t happening yet from the information revolution.)
Saturday, April 30, 2016
US Economic Statistics LIES, LIES AND OMG, MORE LIES / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: James_Quinn
It’s that time of year again. It’s open enrollment for health plans at my employer. They are biggest employer in Philly and have the most leverage possible with the insurance companies. They have such good leverage that my premiums are going up “only” 9.8% this year for a basic HMO plan. Based on what I hear from others, I should be thankful for just a 9.8% increase.
This isn’t a new development. Since I’ve been tracking all my expenditures using Quicken since 1991, I know exactly what my annual health insurance costs have been every year. Obamacare was passed in 2009 and began to be implemented in 2010. Obama declared that families could expect $2,500 of savings per year. I know for a fact my annual medical expenses were $2,000 higher in 2015 than they were in 2010.
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Friday, April 29, 2016
Sri Lanka is Intriguing: Areas to Consider for Value Investing / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Dylan_Waller
The stock market discount and comparatively stronger trends of growth present in frontier Asia is intriguing, and a buy frontier, sell emerging approach is one of the most clear cut ways to prosper when investing in Asia. These trends, coupled with noteworthy political improvements, can be combined to create a strong value investing case. Sri Lanka is a strong frontier market in Asia that meets all of these requirements, yet is being relegated by many foreign investors. Sri Lanka has been benefiting from the end of the country’s 26 year civil war that ended in 2009, which has resulted in an improved political landscape. This improvement has been coupled with Sri Lanka’s new government, which was elected in January 2015.
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
Global Recession in 2016 and Beyond - The Obvious Evidence / Economics / Recession 2016
By: Rajveer_Rawlin
Definition of a Recession:
The textbook definition of a recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Some examples of recessions include the great depression of the 1930's, the dotcom crash of 2000 and the great recession of 2008.
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Wednesday, April 27, 2016
Saudi Arabia Releases Ambitious Plan To Diversify Economy / Economics / Saudi Arabia
By: OilPrice_Com
On Monday, Saudi Arabia released a blueprint for the future, a plan for the Kingdom that could alter the course of its history. The "Vision for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia" could radically transform Saudi Aramco, the Saudi economy, and the country's social structure.The plan has been pioneered by the 30-year-old Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the second in line to the King, who has emerged as one of the most powerful figures in the Saudi government. Just a week ago his influence was on display; while it is difficult to know exactly what went on behind the scenes, all signs point to the Deputy Crown Prince overruling the long-standing and respected oil minister Ali al-Naimi to kill off the OPEC deal in Doha.
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Sunday, April 24, 2016
Why Leftist Greeks have more reasons than Liberals to favour Entrepreneurship and Support Entrepreneurs / Economics / SME
By: Submissions
Petros Diplas writes: Recently I read it and said “There goes another myth."
"It is an indisputable fact that Leftism and Entrepreneurship in Greece are incompatible concepts."
Everybody blames the Greek Left - and I insist on Greek – to be against entrepreneurship.
Saturday, April 23, 2016
Mish's Sure Fire Proposal to End Japanese Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
It's rather amusing that Japan cannot destroy its currency even though it has tried, and tried and tried.
Abenomics has been a huge failure. Keynesian "solutions" of all sorts have failed to rid Japan of the alleged scourge of deflation.
Some think handing out free money is the obvious solution, but what if people don't spend it?
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Thursday, April 14, 2016
The Winter of Discontent / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
The Winter of 2015-2016, which came to an end a few weeks ago, has been officially designated as the mildest in the U.S. in 121 years according to NOAA. While this fact will certainly add a major talking point in the global warming debate, it should also be front and center in the current economic discussion. The fact that it isn't is testament to the blatantly self-serving manner in which economic cheerleaders blame the weather when it's convenient, but ignore it when it's not. If economists were consistent (and that's a colossal "if"), the good weather would be taken as a reason to believe the economy is weaker than is being reported.
Thursday, April 14, 2016
Why is The MSM Covering Up Recessionary Data? / Economics / Recession 2016
By: James_Quinn
The Census Bureau put out their monthly retail sales report this morning. During good times, the MSM would be hailing the tremendous increases as proof the consumer was flush with cash and all was well with the economy. Considering 70% of our GDP is dependent upon consumer spending, you would think this data point would be pretty important in judging how well Americans are really doing.
It's not perfect, because the issuance of debt to consumers to purchase autos, furniture, appliances and electronics can juice the retail sales numbers and create the false impression of strength. That's what has been going on with auto sales for the last two years.
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Wednesday, April 13, 2016
The Millennial Moment and the Global Crisis / Economics / Demographics
By: Clif_Droke
It's a trite saying but a profound one all the same: "History always repeats." We've all heard this bromide countless times, yet how many of us have truly pondered its significance?
The truism that history tends to repeat itself over time is the basis of the cyclical view of human affairs as applied to the financial market. Cycle investors believe that by studying past episodes of a similar character they can divine the outcome of currents events. It's not surprising then that the cyclists among us have turned their attention toward the global financial market slowdown and tepid pace of the U.S. economy recovery.
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Saturday, April 09, 2016
The Minimum Wage Debate – So What? / Economics / Wages
By: Andy_Sutton
There has been an incredible amount of posturing, debate, and arguing over the minimum wage situation – particularly surrounding recent events in California and New York where legislation was recently signed into law that would effectively double the nominal minimum wage over the next several years – 6 years in California, and 3 in New York City. The rest of New York will see the changes phased in over a longer period of time.
Instead of diving headlong into the useless arguing and name-calling, I think it is important to take a step back from the dogmatic rhetoric we hear on television, from the media, our legislators, and those in academia and take a hard look at the economics behind the idea of having a minimum wage to begin with. This going to take a bit of a leap for pretty much all of us since we’ve either grown up with a minimum wage in place or have had a job that paid minimum wage at some point – myself included.
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Friday, April 08, 2016
Oor 'Lawnmower' Economy - Financiers Skim Profits While Main Street Stagnates / Economics / US Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long share their thinking on why the middle class in America has been experiencing a steady decline in their real standard of living over the last four decades and why the decline has recently accelerated. Their is a fundamental reason why productivity is falling while corporate profits soar and the employment participation rates falls.
Thursday, April 07, 2016
Can We Grow Out Of Our Economic Problems If We’re Not Actually Growing? / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
The rationale for today’s easy money policies is pretty straightforward: Falling interest rates and rising government deficits will counteract the drag of excessive debts taken on in previous stimulus programs and asset bubbles, enabling the developed world to create wealth faster than it takes on new debt. The result: a steady decline in debt/GDP to levels that allow the current system to survive without wrenching changes.
Sunday, April 03, 2016
California Minimum Wage Hike History / Economics / Wages
By: Mike_Shedlock
California Governor Jerry Brown launched a Political Earthquake proposing a series of minimum wage hikes every year between now and 2022 when the minimum wage hits $15.
The Huffington post reports "The new law will boost paychecks for millions of California workers. More than 40% of California workers earn less than $15 dollars an hour."
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Sunday, April 03, 2016
What New Economic Recovery? / Economics / US Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The rise of the ‘dollar store business model’ caters to a disappearing ‘middle class’ who are incurring shrinking incomes. This has made ‘dollar stores’ prosper, in the last decade. Dollar stores, for most Americans, have carried an odd sort of stigma. In the past, these stores were seen as shopping for the poor, only. We are all now aware that many people who were in the once strong American ‘middle class’ were thrown off of the prosperity path and into ‘lower income’ brackets from business layoffs, downsizing, and salary reduction. While regular product companies struggle the expanding ‘dollar stores’ have found a niche in this economic climate. The shrinking ‘middle class’ means more customers for ‘dollar stores’.
Saturday, April 02, 2016
Cost Push Inflation is Another Keynesian Concept the Federal Reserve Believes In - They're Wrong / Economics / Inflation
By: Gordon_T_Long
FRA Co-founder Gordon T. Long is joined by Christopher P. Casey in discussing the decrease in oil price and its potential effect on the global economy.
Mr. Casey is the Managing Director of WindRock Wealth Management, a registered investment advisor and wealth management firm that subscribes to the Austrian school of economics. Mr. Casey is a frequent speaker before a number of organizations and conferences, including USA Watchdog, GoldMoney, Freedom Fest, and various bar associations and radio shows, including weekly financial and economic commentary on The Edge of Liberty (WNJC 1360, Philadelphia). His writings have appeared in a variety of publications and websites including The Ludwig von Mises Institute, Zero Hedge, Family Business, Casey Research, and Laissez Faire Books. He is a board member of the Economics Development Council with the University of Illinois, a Policy Advisor for The Heartland Institute's Center on Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate, and a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder (CFA®)
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Thursday, March 31, 2016
Inflation is Here and the Fed Wants More / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed failed to hike interest rates in March despite the “data” hitting levels at which the Fed said it would hike. Indeed, the Fed even lowered its expected number of rate hikes for this year from four to two!
This confirms for us that the Fed does indeed want inflation.
In the last few weeks, several Fed officials, most notably Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer stated not only that inflation was appearing in the US but that this is something the Fed “would like to happen.”
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Thursday, March 31, 2016
Beware of March Non Farm Payrolls. They Have the Worst Record than any Other Month / Economics / Employment
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The table below shows the consistency of misses (actual figure below consensus forecasts) in March NFPs over the last three years. In fact, NFP figures for the month of March have come in below forecasts in 7 out of the last 8 March reports with an average miss of -59k.
Most strikingly & recently, last year's March report showed a 126K reading, well below consensus of 245K. Interestingly, that 129K reading was revised down to 88K one month later.
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Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Price Controls May Be On the Way / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Paul-Martin Foss writes: If you thought negative interest rates were as bad as it could get with central banks, you might be in for a surprise. Central banks have been so spectacularly unsuccessful with their accommodative monetary policies that they are discussing pulling out all the stops to get the results they want. They fail to realize that the reason prices aren’t rising is because they really want and need to fall. Bad debts weren’t liquidated during the last financial crisis, the debtors were merely bailed out. Overpriced assets weren’t allowed to be reduced in price. Central banks pumped trillions of dollars into the economy to attempt to paper over the recession. Market forces want to drive prices down, while central banks attempt to prop them up. So what to do when central banks aren’t getting their way?
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